Search results for: cyber risk assessment
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2272

Search results for: cyber risk assessment

802 Mechanical Evaluation of Stainless Steel and Titanium Dynamic Hip Screws for Trochanteric Fracture

Authors: Supakit Rooppakhun, Nattapon Chantarapanich, Bancha Chernchujit, Banchong Mahaisavariya, Sedthawatt Sucharitpwatskul, Kriskrai Sitthiseripratip

Abstract:

This study aimed to present the mechanical performance evaluation of the dynamic hip screw (DHS) for trochanteric fracture by means of finite element method. The analyses were performed based on stainless steel and titanium implant material definitions at various stages of bone healing and including implant removal. The assessment of the mechanical performance used two parameters, von Mises stress to evaluate the strength of bone and implant and elastic strain to evaluate fracture stability. The results show several critical aspects of dynamic hip screw for trochanteric fracture stabilization. In the initial stage of bone healing process, partial weight bearing should be applied to avoid the implant failure. In the late stage of bone healing, stainless steel implant should be removed.

Keywords: Trochanteric fracture, Dynamic hip screw (DHS), Finite element analysis.

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801 Coloured Petri Nets Model for Web Architectures of Web and Database Servers

Authors: Nidhi Gaur, Padmaja Joshi, Vijay Jain, Rajeev Srivastava

Abstract:

Web application architecture is important to achieve the desired performance for the application. Performance analysis studies are conducted to evaluate existing or planned systems. Web applications are used by hundreds of thousands of users simultaneously, which sometimes increases the risk of server failure in real time operations. We use Coloured Petri Net (CPN), a very powerful tool for modelling dynamic behaviour of a web application system. CPNs extend the vocabulary of ordinary Petri nets and add features that make them suitable for modelling large systems. The major focus of this work is on server side of web applications. The presented work focuses on modelling restructuring aspects, with major focus on concurrency and architecture, using CPN. It also focuses on bringing out the appropriate architecture for web and database servers given the number of concurrent users.

Keywords: Coloured petri nets, concurrent users, performance modelling, web application architecture.

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800 Premarital Sex, HIV, and Use of Condom among Youths in Nigeria

Authors: Okechukwu Odinaka Ajaegbu

Abstract:

In the recent past, discussing about sex among children and youths was frowned at by traditional norms and as such sexual discussions and behavior were approached with great respect. Things are actually falling apart with the increasing number of young people that engage in premarital sex. Due to lack of experience and sex education, many young people are becoming increasingly exposed to the risk of HIV infection. In the light of the above, this study discussed premarital sex, HIV, and use of condom among youths in Nigeria. Data for this study came from 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and other secondary data. The survey revealed that only 18.5 percent of young women that had sex in the 12 months preceding the survey used condom. Out of 3306 never-married sexually active men and women, 1728 representing 52 percent live in urban areas and 43 percent of them did not use condom during sexual intercourse in the 12 months preceding the survey. This study concludes that for there to be reduction in prevalence of HIV/AIDS among Nigerian youths, there is need for concerted effort to be made towards educating youths on the expedient of the use of condom during sexual intercourse.

Keywords: Condom, HIV, Nigeria, Premarital sex, Youths.

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799 The Delaying Influence of Degradation on the Divestment of Gas Turbines for Associated Gas Utilisation: Part 1

Authors: Mafel Obhuo, Dodeye I. Igbong, Duabari S. Aziaka, Pericles Pilidis

Abstract:

An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.

Keywords: Economic return, flared associated gas, net present value, optimisation.

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798 Simulation of Loss-of-Flow Transient in a Radiant Steam Boiler with Relap5/Mod3.2

Authors: A.L.Deghal.Cheridi, A.Chaker, A.Loubar

Abstract:

loss of feedwater accident is one of the frequently sever accidents in steam boiler facilities. It threatens the system structural integrity and generates serious hazards and economic loses. The safety analysis of the thermal installations, based extensively on the numeric simulation. The simulation analysis using realistic computer codes like Relap5/Mod3.2 will help understand steam boiler thermal-hydraulic behavior during normal and abnormal conditions. In this study, we are interested on the evaluation of the radiant steam boiler assessment and response to loss-of-feedwater accident. Pressure, temperature and flow rate profiles are presented in various steam boiler system components. The obtained results demonstrate the importance and capability of the Relap5/Mod3.2 code in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the steam boiler facilities.

Keywords: Radiant steam boiler, Relap5/Mod3.2 code system, Steady-state simulation, Transient simulation, Loss of feedwateraccident

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797 Damage Evolution of Underground Structural Reinforced Concrete Small-Scale Static-Loading Experiments

Authors: Ahmed Mohammed Youssef Mohammed, Mohammad Reza Okhovat, Koichi Maekawa

Abstract:

Small-scale RC models of both piles and tunnel ducts were produced as mockups of reality and loaded under soil confinement conditionsto investigate the damage evolution of structural RC interacting with soil. Experimental verifications usinga 3D nonlinear FE analysis program called COM3D, which was developed at the University of Tokyo, are introduced. This analysis has been used in practice for seismic performance assessment of underground ducts and in-ground LNG storage tanks in consideration of soil-structure interactionunder static and dynamic loading. Varying modes of failure of RCpilessubjected to different magnitudes of soil confinement were successfully reproduced in the proposed small-scale experiments and numerically simulated as well. Analytical simulation was applied to RC tunnel mockups under a wide variety of depth and soil confinement conditions, and reasonable matching was confirmed.

Keywords: Soil-Structure Interaction, RC pile, RC Tunnel

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796 Decision Support System for a Pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System in Central Chile

Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M.L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

Abstract:

Flash Floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Early Warning Systems, Flash Flood, Natural Hazard.

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795 Groundwater Quality Assessment for Irrigation Use in Vadodara District, Gujarat, India

Authors: S. M. Shah, N. J. Mistry

Abstract:

This study was conducted to evaluate factors regulating groundwater quality in an area with agriculture as main use. Under this study twelve groundwater samples have been collected from Padra taluka, Dabhoi taluka and Savli taluka of Vadodara district. Groundwater samples were chemically analyzed for major physicochemical parameter in order to understand the different geochemical processes affecting the groundwater quality. The analytical results shows higher concentration of total dissolved solids (16.67%), electrical conductivity (25%) and magnesium (8.33%) for pre monsoon and total dissolved solids (16.67%), electrical conductivity (33.3%) and magnesium (8.33%) for post monsoon which indicates signs of deterioration as per WHO and BIS standards. On the other hand, 50% groundwater sample is unsuitable for irrigation purposes based on irrigation quality parameters. The study revealed that application of fertilizer for agricultural contributing the higher concentration of ions in aquifer of Vadodara district.

Keywords: Groundwater pollution, agricultural activity, irrigation water quality, sodium adsorption ratio (SAR).

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794 Bin Bloom Filter Using Heuristic Optimization Techniques for Spam Detection

Authors: N. Arulanand, K. Premalatha

Abstract:

Bloom filter is a probabilistic and memory efficient data structure designed to answer rapidly whether an element is present in a set. It tells that the element is definitely not in the set but its presence is with certain probability. The trade-off to use Bloom filter is a certain configurable risk of false positives. The odds of a false positive can be made very low if the number of hash function is sufficiently large. For spam detection, weight is attached to each set of elements. The spam weight for a word is a measure used to rate the e-mail. Each word is assigned to a Bloom filter based on its weight. The proposed work introduces an enhanced concept in Bloom filter called Bin Bloom Filter (BBF). The performance of BBF over conventional Bloom filter is evaluated under various optimization techniques. Real time data set and synthetic data sets are used for experimental analysis and the results are demonstrated for bin sizes 4, 5, 6 and 7. Finally analyzing the results, it is found that the BBF which uses heuristic techniques performs better than the traditional Bloom filter in spam detection.

Keywords: Cuckoo search algorithm, levy’s flight, metaheuristic, optimal weight.

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793 Aerodynamic Analysis and Design of Banners for Remote-Controlled Aircraft

Authors: Peyman Honarmandi, Mazen Alhirsh

Abstract:

Banner towing is a major form of advertisement. It consists of a banner showing a logo or a selection of words or letters being towed by an aircraft. Traditionally bush planes have been used to tow banners given their high thrust capabilities, however, with the development of Remote-Controlled (RC) aircraft, they could be a good replacement as RC planes mitigate the risk of human life and can be easier to operate. This paper studies the best banner design to be towed by an RC aircraft. This is done by conducting wind tunnel testing on an array of banners with different materials and designs. A pull gauge is used to record the drag force during testing which is then used to calculate the coefficient of drag, Cd. The testing results show that the best banner design would be a hybrid design with a solid and mesh material. The design with the lowest Cd of 0.082 was a half ripstop nylon half polyester mesh design. On the other hand, the design with highest Cd of 0.305 involved incorporating a tail chute to decrease fluttering.

Keywords: Aerodynamics of banner, banner design, banner towing, drag coefficients of banner, RC aircraft banner.

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792 The Role of the Urban Renewal Projects on the Reshaping of the Cities: İzmir (Turkey) Case

Authors: Sibel Ecemis Kiliç, Neslihan Karatas

Abstract:

The concept of urban transformation came about through interventions aimed at bringing socially and economically problematic areas of cities into use. The issue of urban transformation arose frequently during the post-2000 period in particular, and legal regulations on this matter were also developed in Turkey. Urban transformation project would be a focal point for the formation of the city in the near future. Izmir, which is third largest city of Turkey, is an important trade and port city. But, assessment of the current situation shows that, the majority of existing residential areas was formed with squatters and unplanned settlements in Izmir city center. Therefore an important part of these areas have significant problems in terms of the quality of life, safety and environmental quality. In this study, the central policies in Turkey and local policies in Đzmir about urban transformation will be considered. In addition, urban renewal projects that are being implemented in Izmir were discussed and suggestions will be developed in accordance with this policy.

Keywords: urban transformation, urban renewal projects, Izmir, urban planning.

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791 Vr-GIS and Ar-GIS In Education: A Case Study

Authors: Ilario Gabriele Gerloni, Vincenza Carchiolo, Alessandro Longheu, Ugo Becciani, Eva Sciacca, Fabio Vitello

Abstract:

ICT tools and platforms endorse more and more educational process. Many models and techniques for people to be educated and trained about specific topics and skills do exist, as classroom lectures with textbooks, computers, handheld devices and others. The choice to what extent ICT is applied within learning contexts is related to personal access to technologies as well as to the infrastructure surrounding environment. Among recent techniques, the adoption of Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) provides significant impulse in fully engaging users senses. In this paper, an application of AR/VR within Geographic Information Systems (GIS) context is presented. It aims to provide immersive environment experiences for educational and training purposes (e.g. for civil protection personnel), useful especially for situations where real scenarios are not easily accessible by humans. First acknowledgments are promising for building an effective tool that helps civil protection personnel training with risk reduction.

Keywords: Education, virtual reality, augmented reality, civil protection.

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790 Characterization and Design of a Crumb Rubber Modified Asphalt Mix Formulation

Authors: H. Al-Baghli

Abstract:

Laboratory trial results of mixing crumb rubber produced from discarded tires with 60/70 pen grade Kuwaiti bitumen are presented on this paper. PG grading and multiple stress creep recovery tests were conducted on Kuwaiti bitumen blended with 15% and 18% crumb rubber at temperatures ranging from 40 to 70 °C. The results from elastic recovery and non-recoverable creep presented optimum performance at 18% rubber content. The optimum rubberized-bitumen mix was next transformed into a pelletized form (PelletPave®), and was used as a partial replacement to the conventional bitumen in the manufacture of continuously graded hot mix asphalts at a number of binder contents. The trialed PelletPave® contents were at 2.5%, 3.0%, and 3.5% by mass of asphalt mix. In this investigation, it was not possible to utilize the results of standard Marshall method of mix design (i.e. volumetric, stability and flow tests) and subsequently additional assessment of mix compactability was carried out using gyratory compactor in order to determine the optimum PelletPave® and total binder contents.

Keywords: Crumb rubber, Marshall mix design, PG grading, rubberized-bitumen.

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789 Forecasting e-Learning Efficiency by Using Artificial Neural Networks and a Balanced Score Card

Authors: Petar Halachev

Abstract:

Forecasting the values of the indicators, which characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.

Keywords: artificial neural network, balanced scorecard, e-learning

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788 A Framework to Support Reuse in Object-Oriented Software Development

Authors: Fathi Taibi

Abstract:

Reusability is a quality desired attribute in software products. Generally, it could be achieved through adopting development methods that promote it and achieving software qualities that have been linked with high reusability proneness. With the exponential growth in mobile application development, software reuse became an integral part in a substantial number of projects. Similarly, software reuse has become widely practiced in start-up companies. However, this has led to new emerging problems. Firstly, the reused code does not meet the required quality and secondly, the reuse intentions are dubious. This work aims to propose a framework to support reuse in Object-Oriented (OO) software development. The framework comprises a process that uses a proposed reusability assessment metric and a formal foundation to specify the elements of the reused code and the relationships between them. The framework is empirically evaluated using a wide range of open-source projects and mobile applications. The results are analyzed to help understand the reusability proneness of OO software and the possible means to improve it.

Keywords: Software reusability, software metrics, object-oriented software, modularity, low complexity, understandability.

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787 Comparison of Conventional and “ECO“Transportation Pavements in Cyprus using Life Cycle Approach

Authors: Constantia Achilleos, Diofantos G. Hadjimitsis

Abstract:

Road industry has challenged the prospect of ecoconstruction. Pavements may fit within the framework of sustainable development. Hence, research implements assessments of conventional pavements impacts on environment in use of life cycle approach. To meet global, and often national, targets on pollution control, newly introduced pavement designs are under study. This is the case of Cyprus demonstration, which occurred within EcoLanes project work. This alternative pavement differs on concrete layer reinforced with tire recycling product. Processing of post-consumer tires produces steel fibers improving strength capacity against cracking. Thus maintenance works are relevantly limited in comparison to flexible pavement. This enables to be more ecofriendly, referenced to current study outputs. More specific, proposed concrete pavement life cycle processes emits 15 % less air pollutants and consumes 28 % less embodied energy than those of the asphalt pavement. In addition there is also a reduction on costs by 0.06 %.

Keywords: Environmental impact assessment, life cycle, tirerecycling, transportation pavement.

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786 Design of Real Time Early Response Systems for Natural Disaster Management Based On Automation and Control Technologies

Authors: C. Pacheco, A. Cipriano

Abstract:

A new concept of response system is proposed for filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems (RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment. A review of the state of the art on works that fit the concept of RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural disaster management many works are involved in creating early warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies and automatic control concepts and tools.

Keywords: Disaster management, emergency response system, natural disasters, real time.

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785 Multiple Power Flow Solutions Using Particle Swarm Optimization with Embedded Local Search Technique

Authors: P. Acharjee, S. K. Goswami

Abstract:

Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with elite PSO parameters has been developed for power flow analysis under practical constrained situations. Multiple solutions of the power flow problem are useful in voltage stability assessment of power system. A method of determination of multiple power flow solutions is presented using a hybrid of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and local search technique. The unique and innovative learning factors of the PSO algorithm are formulated depending upon the node power mismatch values to be highly adaptive with the power flow problems. The local search is applied on the pbest solution obtained by the PSO algorithm in each iteration. The proposed algorithm performs reliably and provides multiple solutions when applied on standard and illconditioned systems. The test results show that the performances of the proposed algorithm under critical conditions are better than the conventional methods.

Keywords: critical conditions, ill-conditioned systems, localsearch technique, multiple power flow solutions, particle swarmoptimization.

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784 Analysis of the Benefits of Motion Simulators in 5th Generation Fighter Pilots' Training

Authors: Ali Mithad Emre

Abstract:

In military aviation, the use of flight simulators has proliferated recently in order to train fifth generation fighter pilots. With these simulators, pilots can carry out real-time flights resulting in seeing their faults and can perform emergency drills prior to real flights. Since we cannot risk losing the aircraft and the pilot himself/herself in the flight training process, flight simulators are of great importance to adapt the fighter pilots competently to real flights aboard the fifth generation aircraft. The real flights are impossible to simulate thoroughly on the ground. To some extent, the fixed-based simulators may assist the pilot to steer aircraft technically and visually but flight simulators can’t trick the pilot’s vestibular, sensory, and perceptual systems without motion platforms. This paper discusses the benefits of motion simulators for fifth generation fighter pilots’ training in preference to the fixed-based counterparts by analyzing their pros and cons.

Keywords: Centrifuge, g-loc, military, pilot, sickness, simulator, VMS.

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783 Determination of the Specific Activity of Soil and Fertilizers in Sergipe - Brazil

Authors: Leandro X. Cardoso, Susana O. Souza, Fernanda C. L. Ferreira, Orlando C. Ferreira, Elenilson Barboza, Carlos E. Alhanati

Abstract:

Measurements of radioactivity in the environment is of great importance to monitor and control the levels of radiation to which man is exposed directly or indirectly. It is necessary to show that regardless of working or being close to nuclear power plants, people are daily in contact with some amount of radiation from the actual environment and food that are ingested, contradicting the view of most of them. The aim of this study was to analyze the rate of natural and artificial radiation from radionuclides present in cement, soil and fertilizers used in Sergipe State – Brazil. The radionuclide activitiesmeasured all samples arebelow the Brazilian limit of the exclusion and exemption criteria from the requirement of radiation protection.It was detected Be-7 in organic fertilizers that means a short interval between the brewing processes for use in agriculture. It was also detected an unexpected Cs-137 in some samples; however its activities does not represent risk for the population. Th-231 was also found in samples of soil and cement in the state of Sergipe that is an unprecedented result.

Keywords: Cs-137, Be-7, Th-231 radiation dose, radio isotopes.

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782 A Study of Distinctive Models for Pre-hospital EMS in Thailand: Knowledge Capture

Authors: R. Sinthavalai, N. Memongkol, N. Patthanaprechawong, J. Viriyanantavong, C. Choosuk

Abstract:

In Thailand, the practice of pre-hospital Emergency Medical Service (EMS) in each area reveals the different growth rates and effectiveness of the practices. Those can be found as the diverse quality and quantity. To shorten the learning curve prior to speed-up the practices in other areas, story telling and lessons learnt from the effective practices are valued as meaningful knowledge. To this paper, it was to ascertain the factors, lessons learnt and best practices that have impact as contributing to the success of prehospital EMS system. Those were formulized as model prior to speedup the practice in other areas. To develop the model, Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA), which is widely recognized as a framework for organizational quality assessment and improvement, was chosen as the discussion framework. Remarkably, this study was based on the consideration of knowledge capture; however it was not to complete the loop of knowledge activities. Nevertheless, it was to highlight the recognition of knowledge capture, which is the initiation of knowledge management.

Keywords: Emergency Medical Service, Modeling, MBNQA, Thailand.

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781 Physiological Effects on Scientist Astronaut Candidates: Hypobaric Training Assessment

Authors: Pedro Llanos, Diego García

Abstract:

This paper is addressed to expanding our understanding of the effects of hypoxia training on our bodies to better model its dynamics and leverage some of its implications and effects on human health. Hypoxia training is a recommended practice for military and civilian pilots that allow them to recognize their early hypoxia signs and symptoms, and Scientist Astronaut Candidates (SACs) who underwent hypobaric hypoxia (HH) exposure as part of a training activity for prospective suborbital flight applications. This observational-analytical study describes physiologic responses and symptoms experienced by a SAC group before, during and after HH exposure and proposes a model for assessing predicted versus observed physiological responses. A group of individuals with diverse Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM) backgrounds conducted a hypobaric training session to an altitude up to 22,000 ft (FL220) or 6,705 meters, where heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR) and core temperature (Tc) were monitored with the use of a chest strap sensor pre and post HH exposure. A pulse oximeter registered levels of saturation of oxygen (SpO2), number and duration of desaturations during the HH chamber flight. Hypoxia symptoms as described by the SACs during the HH training session were also registered. This data allowed to generate a preliminary predictive model of the oxygen desaturation and O2 pressure curve for each subject, which consists of a sixth-order polynomial fit during exposure, and a fifth or fourth-order polynomial fit during recovery. Data analysis showed that HR and BR showed no significant differences between pre and post HH exposure in most of the SACs, while Tc measures showed slight but consistent decrement changes. All subjects registered SpO2 greater than 94% for the majority of their individual HH exposures, but all of them presented at least one clinically significant desaturation (SpO2 < 85% for more than 5 seconds) and half of the individuals showed SpO2 below 87% for at least 30% of their HH exposure time. Finally, real time collection of HH symptoms presented temperature somatosensory perceptions (SP) for 65% of individuals, and task-focus issues for 52.5% of individuals as the most common HH indications. 95% of the subjects experienced HH onset symptoms below FL180; all participants achieved full recovery of HH symptoms within 1 minute of donning their O2 mask. The current HH study performed on this group of individuals suggests a rapid and fully reversible physiologic response after HH exposure as expected and obtained in previous studies. Our data showed consistent results between predicted versus observed SpO2 curves during HH suggesting a mathematical function that may be used to model HH performance deficiencies. During the HH study, real-time HH symptoms were registered providing evidenced SP and task focusing as the earliest and most common indicators. Finally, an assessment of HH signs of symptoms in a group of heterogeneous, non-pilot individuals showed similar results to previous studies in homogeneous populations of pilots.

Keywords: Altitude sickness, cabin pressure, hypobaric chamber training, symptoms and altitude, slow onset hypoxia.

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780 The Use Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network for Prediction of Daily Tidal Levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia

Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

Abstract:

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future  storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level  change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining  constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In  this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict  daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal  parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic  algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and  with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior  to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

 

Keywords: Tides, Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Genetic Algorithm, Back-Propagation Neural Network, Risk, Hazards.

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779 VaR Forecasting in Times of Increased Volatility

Authors: Ivo Jánský, Milan Rippel

Abstract:

The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.

Keywords: VaR, risk analysis, conditional volatility, garch, egarch, tarch, moving average process, autoregressive process

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778 Towards a Complete Automation Feature Recognition System for Sheet Metal Manufacturing

Authors: Bahaa Eltahawy, Mikko Ylihärsilä, Reino Virrankoski, Esko Petäjä

Abstract:

Sheet metal processing is automated, but the step from product models to the production machine control still requires human intervention. This may cause time consuming bottlenecks in the production process and increase the risk of human errors. In this paper we present a system, which automatically recognizes features from the CAD-model of the sheet metal product. By using these features, the system produces a complete model of the particular sheet metal product. Then the model is used as an input for the sheet metal processing machine. Currently the system is implemented, capable to recognize more than 11 of the most common sheet metal structural features, and the procedure is fully automated. This provides remarkable savings in the production time, and protects against the human errors. This paper presents the developed system architecture, applied algorithms and system software implementation and testing.

Keywords: Feature recognition, automation, sheet metal manufacturing, CAM, CAD.

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777 Assessment of Hargreaves Equation for Estimating Monthly Reference Evapotranspiration in the South of Iran

Authors: Ali Dehgan Moroozeh, B. Farhadi Bansouleh

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in water and energy balances on the earth’s surface, and knowledge of the distribution of ET is a key factor in hydrology, climatology, agronomy and ecology studies. Many researchers have a valid relationship, which is a function of climate factors, to estimate the potential evapotranspiration presented to the plant water stress or water loss, prevent. The FAO-Penman method (PM) had been recommended as a standard method. This method requires many data and these data are not available in every area of world. So, other methods should be evaluated for these conditions. When sufficient or reliable data to solve the PM equation are not available then Hargreaves equation can be used. The Hargreaves equation (HG) requires only daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature extraterrestrial radiation .In this study, Hargreaves method (HG) were evaluated in 12 stations in the North West region of Iran. Results of HG and M.HG methods were compared with results of PM method. Statistical analysis of this comparison showed that calibration process has had significant effect on efficiency of Hargreaves method.

Keywords: Evapotranspiration, Hargreaves equation, FAOPenman method.

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776 Li-Fi Technology: Data Transmission through Visible Light

Authors: Shahzad Hassan, Kamran Saeed

Abstract:

People are always in search of Wi-Fi hotspots because Internet is a major demand nowadays. But like all other technologies, there is still room for improvement in the Wi-Fi technology with regards to the speed and quality of connectivity. In order to address these aspects, Harald Haas, a professor at the University of Edinburgh, proposed what we know as the Li-Fi (Light Fidelity). Li-Fi is a new technology in the field of wireless communication to provide connectivity within a network environment. It is a two-way mode of wireless communication using light. Basically, the data is transmitted through Light Emitting Diodes which can vary the intensity of light very fast, even faster than the blink of an eye. From the research and experiments conducted so far, it can be said that Li-Fi can increase the speed and reliability of the transfer of data. This paper pays particular attention on the assessment of the performance of this technology. In other words, it is a 5G technology which uses LED as the medium of data transfer. For coverage within the buildings, Wi-Fi is good but Li-Fi can be considered favorable in situations where large amounts of data are to be transferred in areas with electromagnetic interferences. It brings a lot of data related qualities such as efficiency, security as well as large throughputs to the table of wireless communication. All in all, it can be said that Li-Fi is going to be a future phenomenon where the presence of light will mean access to the Internet as well as speedy data transfer.

Keywords: Communication, LED, Li-Fi, Wi-Fi.

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775 Margin-Based Feed-Forward Neural Network Classifiers

Authors: Han Xiao, Xiaoyan Zhu

Abstract:

Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labelled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open datasets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labelled and more high-dimension dataset in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, Classifier.

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774 Injuries Related to Kitesurfing

Authors: L. Lundgren, S. Brorsson, A-L Osvalder

Abstract:

Participation in sporting activities can lead to injury. Sport injuries have been widely studied in many sports including the more extreme categories of aquatic board sports. Kitesurfing is a relatively new water surface action sport, and has not yet been widely studied in terms of injuries and stress on the body. The aim of this study was to get information about which injuries that are most common among kitesurfing participants, where they occur, and their causes. Injuries were studied using an international open web questionnaire (n=206). The results showed that many respondents reported injuries, in total 251 injuries to knee (24%), ankle (17%), trunk (16%) and shoulders (10%), often sustained while doing jumps and tricks (40%). Among the reported injuries were joint injuries (n=101), muscle/tendon damages (n=47), wounds and cuts (n=36) and bone fractures (n=28). Also environmental factors and equipment can influence the risk of injury, or the extent of injury in a hazardous situation. Conclusively, the information from this retrospective study supports earlier studies in terms of prevalence and site of injuries. Suggestively, this information should be used for to build a foundation of knowledge about the sport for development of applications for physical training and product development.

Keywords: Kitesurfing, injuries, injury cause, questionnaire.

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773 A Parametric Assessment of Friction Damper in Eccentric Braced Frame

Authors: J. Vaseghi, S.Navaei, B. Navayinia, F. Roshantabari

Abstract:

In This paper, the behavior of eccentric braced frame (EBF) is studied with replacing friction damper (FD) in confluence of these braces, in 5 and 10-storey steel frames. For FD system, the main step is to determine the slip load. For this reason, the performance indexes include roof displacement, base shear, dissipated energy and relative performance should be investigated. In nonlinear dynamic analysis, the response of structure to three earthquake records has been obtained and the values of roof displacement, base shear and column axial force for FD and EBF frames have been compared. The results demonstrate that use of the FD in frames, in comparison with the EBF, substantially reduces the roof displacement, column axial force and base shear. The obtained results show suitable performance of FD in higher storey structure in comparison with the EBF.

Keywords: Friction Damper (FD), Slip Load, Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis, Performance Index.

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