Search results for: winkler model (beam on elastic foundation)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8164

Search results for: winkler model (beam on elastic foundation)

6994 The Challenges and Solutions for Developing Mobile Apps in a Small University

Authors: Greg Turner, Bin Lu, Cheer-Sun Yang

Abstract:

As computing technology advances, smartphone applications can assist student learning in a pervasive way. For example, the idea of using mobile apps for the PA Common Trees, Pests, Pathogens, in the field as a reference tool allows middle school students to learn about trees and associated pests/pathogens without bringing a textbook. While working on the development of three heterogeneous mobile apps, we ran into numerous challenges. Both the traditional waterfall model and the more modern agile methodologies failed in practice. The waterfall model emphasizes the planning of the duration for each phase. When the duration of each phase is not consistent with the availability of developers, the waterfall model cannot be employed. When applying Agile Methodologies, we cannot maintain the high frequency of the iterative development review process, known as ‘sprints’. In this paper, we discuss the challenges and solutions. We propose a hybrid model known as the Relay Race Methodology to reflect the concept of racing and relaying during the process of software development in practice. Based on the development project, we observe that the modeling of the relay race transition between any two phases is manifested naturally. Thus, we claim that the RRM model can provide a de fecto rather than a de jure basis for the core concept in the software development model. In this paper, the background of the project is introduced first. Then, the challenges are pointed out followed by our solutions. Finally, the experiences learned and the future works are presented.

Keywords: Agile methods, mobile apps, software process model, waterfall model.

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6993 Cascaded Neural Network for Internal Temperature Forecasting in Induction Motor

Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

Abstract:

In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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6992 Adaptive Integral Backstepping Motion Control for Inverted Pendulum

Authors: Ö. Tolga Altınöz

Abstract:

The adaptive backstepping controller for inverted pendulum is designed by using the general motion control model. Backstepping is a novel nonlinear control technique based on the Lyapunov design approach, used when higher derivatives of parameter estimation appear. For easy parameter adaptation, the mathematical model of the inverted pendulum converted into the motion control model. This conversion is performed by taking functions of unknown parameters and dynamics of the system. By using motion control model equations, inverted pendulum is simulated without any information about not only parameters but also measurable dynamics. Also these results are compare with the adaptive backstepping controller which extended with integral action that given from [1].

Keywords: Adaptive backstepping, inverted pendulum, nonlinear adaptive control.

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6991 A Behavior Model of Discrete Sampling and Hold Amplifier based on AC Response

Authors: Wang Xing-hua, Zhong Shun-an, Zhang Zhuo

Abstract:

A kind of behavior model for discrete sampling and hold amplifier with charge transmission is analyzed. The transfer function and behavior features are based on the main AC responses of operation amplifier. The result used in pipelined and sigma-delta ADC shows the exact of model of sampling and hold amplifier, and the non-ideal factors are taken into account.

Keywords: SHA, response, behavior, transfer function.

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6990 Swine Flu Transmission Model in Risk and Non-Risk Human Population

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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6989 Curvature Ductility Factor of Rectangular Sections Reinforced Concrete Beams

Authors: Y. Si Youcef, M. Chemrouk

Abstract:

The present work presents a method of calculating the ductility of rectangular sections of beams considering nonlinear behavior of concrete and steel. This calculation procedure allows us to trace the curvature of the section according to the bending moment, and consequently deduce ductility. It also allowed us to study the various parameters that affect the value of the ductility. A comparison of the effect of maximum rates of tension steel, adopted by the codes, ACI [1], EC8 [2] and RPA [3] on the value of the ductility was made. It was concluded that the maximum rate of steels permitted by the ACI [1] codes and RPA [3] are almost similar in their effect on the ductility and too high. Therefore, the ductility mobilized in case of an earthquake is low, the inverse of code EC8 [2]. Recommendations have been made in this direction.

Keywords: Ductility, beam, reinforced concrete, seismic code, relationship, time bending, resistance, non-linear behavior.

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6988 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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6987 Rainfall–Runoff Simulation Using WetSpa Model in Golestan Dam Basin, Iran

Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

Abstract:

Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km2, and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: Watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction.

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6986 A Finite Element Solution of the Mathematical Model for Smoke Dispersion from Two Sources

Authors: Nopparat Pochai

Abstract:

Smoke discharging is a main reason of air pollution problem from industrial plants. The obstacle of a building has an affect with the air pollutant discharge. In this research, a mathematical model of the smoke dispersion from two sources and one source with a structural obstacle is considered. The governing equation of the model is an isothermal mass transfer model in a viscous fluid. The finite element method is used to approximate the solutions of the model. The triangular linear elements have been used for discretising the domain, and time integration has been carried out by semi-implicit finite difference method. The simulations of smoke dispersion in cases of one chimney and two chimneys are presented. The maximum calculated smoke concentration of both cases are compared. It is then used to make the decision for smoke discharging and air pollutant control problems on industrial area.

Keywords: Air pollution, Smoke dispersion, Finite element method, Stream function, Vorticity equation, Convection-diffusion equation, Semi-implicit method

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6985 High Accuracy Eigensolutions in Elasticity for Boundary Integral Equations by Nyström Method

Authors: Pan Cheng, Jin Huang, Guang Zeng

Abstract:

Elastic boundary eigensolution problems are converted into boundary integral equations by potential theory. The kernels of the boundary integral equations have both the logarithmic and Hilbert singularity simultaneously. We present the mechanical quadrature methods for solving eigensolutions of the boundary integral equations by dealing with two kinds of singularities at the same time. The methods possess high accuracy O(h3) and low computing complexity. The convergence and stability are proved based on Anselone-s collective compact theory. Bases on the asymptotic error expansion with odd powers, we can greatly improve the accuracy of the approximation, and also derive a posteriori error estimate which can be used for constructing self-adaptive algorithms. The efficiency of the algorithms are illustrated by numerical examples.

Keywords: boundary integral equation, extrapolation algorithm, aposteriori error estimate, elasticity.

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6984 The New Relative Efficiency Based on the Least Eigenvalue in Generalized Linear Model

Authors: Chao Yuan, Bao Guang Tian

Abstract:

A new relative efficiency is defined as LSE and BLUE in the generalized linear model. The relative efficiency is based on the ratio of the least eigenvalues. In this paper, we discuss about its lower bound and the relationship between it and generalized relative coefficient. Finally, this paper proves that the new estimation is better under Stein function and special condition in some degree.

Keywords: Generalized linear model, generalized relative coefficient, least eigenvalue, relative efficiency.

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6983 Stress Analysis of Laminated Cylinders Subject to the Thermomechanical Loads

Authors: Ş. Aksoy, A. Kurşun, E. Çetin, M. R. Haboğlu

Abstract:

In this study, thermo elastic stress analysis is  performed on a cylinder made of laminated isotropic materials under  thermomechanical loads. Laminated cylinders have many  applications such as aerospace, automotive and nuclear plant in the  industry. These cylinders generally performed under  thermomechanical loads. Stress and displacement distribution of the  laminated cylinders are determined using by analytical method both  thermal and mechanical loads. Based on the results, materials  combination plays an important role on the stresses distribution along  the radius. Variation of the stresses and displacements along the  radius are presented as graphs. Calculations program are prepared  using MATLAB® by authors.

 

Keywords: Isotropic materials, laminated cylinders, thermoelastic stress, thermomechanical load.

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6982 Eco-Friendly Natural Filler Based Epoxy Composites

Authors: Suheyla Kocaman, Gulnare Ahmetli

Abstract:

In this study, acrylated soybean oil (AESO) was used as modifying agent for DGEBF-type epoxy resin (ER). AESO was used as a co-matrix in 50 wt % with ER. Composites with eco-friendly natural fillers-banana bark and seashell were prepared. MNA was used as a hardener. Effect of banana peel (BP) and seashell (SSh) fillers on mechanical properties, such as tensile strength, elongation at break, and hardness of M-ERs were investigated. The structure epoxy resins (M-ERs) cured with MNA and sebacic acid (SAc) hardeners were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Tensile test results show that Young’s (elastic) modulus, tensile strength and hardness of SSh particles reinforced with M-ERs were higher than the M-ERs reinforced with banana bark.

Keywords: Biobased composite, epoxy resin, mechanical properties, natural fillers.

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6981 Thermomechanical Damage Modeling of F114 Carbon Steel

Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi

Abstract:

The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.

Keywords: Thermomechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damages.

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6980 Modelling Sudden Deaths from Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Authors: Yusoff Y. S., Streftaris, G., Waters, H. R

Abstract:

Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a generalized linear model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: Sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease.

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6979 Seat Assignment Model for Student Admissions Process at Saudi Higher Education Institutions

Authors: Mohammed Salem Alzahrani

Abstract:

In this paper, student admission process is studied to optimize the assignment of vacant seats with three main objectives. Utilizing all vacant seats, satisfying all programs of study admission requirements and maintaining fairness among all candidates are the three main objectives of the optimization model. Seat Assignment Method (SAM) is used to build the model and solve the optimization problem with help of Northwest Coroner Method and Least Cost Method. A closed formula is derived for applying the priority of assigning seat to candidate based on SAM.

Keywords: Admission Process Model, Assignment Problem, Hungarian Method, Least Cost Method, Northwest Corner Method, Seat Assignment Method (SAM).

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6978 Commercializing Technology Solutions- Moving from Products to Solutions

Authors: Anand Dass, Hiroaki Murakami

Abstract:

The paper outlines the drivers behind the movement from products to solutions in the Hi-Tech Business-to-Business markets. The paper lists out the challenges in enabling the transformation from products to solutions and also attempts to explore strategic and operational recommendations based on the authors- factual experiences with Japanese Hi-tech manufacturing organizations. Organizations in the Hi-Tech Business-to-Business markets are increasingly being compelled to move to a solutions model from the conventional products model. Despite the added complexity of solutions, successful technology commercialization can be achieved by making prudent choices in defining a relevant solutions model, by backing the solution model through appropriate organizational design, and by overhauling the new product development process and supporting infrastructure.

Keywords: Technology commercialization, Solutions, Hi-Tech companies, Japan, Management of technology

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6977 SMEs Access to Finance in Croatia – Model Approach

Authors: Vinko Vidučić, Ljiljana Vidučić, Damir Boras

Abstract:

The goals of the research include the determination of the characteristics of SMEs finance in Croatia, as well as the determination of indirect growth rates of the information model of the entrepreneurs` perception of business environment. The research results show that cost of finance and access to finance are most important constraining factor in setting up and running the business of small entrepreneurs in Croatia. Furthermore, small entrepreneurs in Croatia are significantly dissatisfied with the administrative barriers although relatively to a lesser extent than was the case in the pre crisis time. High collateral requirement represents the main characteristic of bank lending concerning SMEs followed by long credit elaboration process. Formulated information model has defined the individual impact of indirect growth rates of the remaining variables on the model’s specific variable.

Keywords: Business environment, information model, indirect growth rates, SME finance.

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6976 Piezoelectric Micro-generator Characterization for Energy Harvesting Application

Authors: José E. Q. Souza, Marcio Fontana, Antonio C. C. Lima

Abstract:

This paper presents analysis and characterization of a piezoelectric micro-generator for energy harvesting application. A low-cost experimental prototype was designed to operate as piezoelectric micro-generator in the laboratory. An input acceleration of 9.8m/s2 using a sine signal (peak-to-peak voltage: 1V, offset voltage: 0V) at frequencies ranging from 10Hz to 160Hz generated a maximum average power of 432.4μW (linear mass position = 25mm) and an average power of 543.3μW (angular mass position = 35°). These promising results show that the prototype can be considered for low consumption load application as an energy harvesting micro-generator.

Keywords: Piezoelectric, microgenerator, energy harvesting, cantilever beam.

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6975 Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid RBF Neural Network and AR Model Based On Binomial Smoothing

Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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6974 Helicopter Adaptive Control with Parameter Estimation Based on Feedback Linearization

Authors: A. R. Nemati, M. Haddad Zarif, M. M. Fateh

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive feedback linearization approach to derive helicopter. Ideal feedback linearization is defined for the cases when the system model is known. Adaptive feedback linearization is employed to get asymptotically exact cancellation for the inherent uncertainty in the knowledge of the given parameters of system. The control algorithm is implemented using the feedback linearization technique and adaptive method. The controller parameters are unknown where an adaptive control law aims to drive them towards their ideal values for providing perfect model matching between the reference model and the closed-loop plant model. The converged parameters of controller would then provide good estimates for the unknown plant parameters.

Keywords: Adaptive control, helicopter, feedback linearization, nonlinear control.

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6973 Enhanced Thermal Properties of Rigid PVC Foams Using Fly Ash

Authors: Nidal H. Abu-Zahra, Parisa Khoshnoud, Murtatha Jamel, Subhashini Gunashekar

Abstract:

PVC foam-fly ash composites (PVC-FA) are characterized for their structural, morphological, mechanical and thermal properties. The tensile strength of the composites increased modestly with higher fly ash loading, while there was a significant increase in the elastic modulus for the same composites. On the other hand, a decrease in elongation at UTS was observed upon increasing fly ash content due to increased rigidity of the composites. Similarly, the flexural modulus increased as the fly ash loading increased, where the composites containing 25 phr fly ash showed the highest flexural strength. Thermal properties of PVC-fly ash composites were determined by Thermo Gravimetric Analysis (TGA). The microstructural properties were studied by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). SEM results confirm that fly ash particles were mechanically interlocked in PVC matrix with good interfacial interaction with the matrix. Particle agglomeration and debonding was observed in samples containing higher amounts of fly ash.

Keywords: PVC Foam, Polyvinyl Chloride, Rigid PVC, Fly Ash Composites.

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6972 Enhancing Supply Chain Agility by Deploying Competence Management and the Supply Chain Operations Model

Authors: N. Sefiani, L. Chraibi, K. Reklaoui, Y. Sefiani

Abstract:

Currently, business environment is characterized by pressure caused by stiff competition, constant changes (e.g., product/ technological innovations, decreasing product lifecycles, and product proliferation), and a high level of market uncertainty band unpredictability. The agility of the Supply Chain Management (SCM) is clearly identified as a key factor for success and a strategic essential lever. This paper explores the impact of deploying competence management and Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model on firm performance. Our approach is based on a systemic view by considering the SCOR reference model as the heart of competence management system.

Keywords: Competence, competence management, performance, SCOR model and agility.

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6971 A Fuzzy Multi-objective Model for a Machine Selection Problem in a Flexible Manufacturing System

Authors: Phruksaphanrat B.

Abstract:

This research presents a fuzzy multi-objective model for a machine selection problem in a flexible manufacturing system of a tire company. Two main objectives are minimization of an average machine error and minimization of the total setup time. Conventionally, the working team uses trial and error in selecting a pressing machine for each task due to the complexity and constraints of the problem. So, both objectives may not satisfy. Moreover, trial and error takes a lot of time to get the final decision. Therefore, in this research preemptive fuzzy goal programming model is developed for solving this multi-objective problem. The proposed model can obtain the appropriate results that the Decision Making (DM) is satisfied for both objectives. Besides, alternative choice can be easily generated by varying the satisfaction level. Additionally, decision time can be reduced by using the model, which includes all constraints of the system to generate the solutions. A numerical example is also illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Machine Selection, Preemptive Fuzzy Goal Programming, Mixed Integer Programming, Application of Tire Industry.

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6970 On Internet Access Technology Specification Model

Authors: Samson Okwakol Ariko, Venansius Baryamureeba

Abstract:

Internet Access Technologies (IAT) provide a means through which Internet can be accessed. The choice of a suitable Internet technology is increasingly becoming an important issue to ISP clients. Currently, the choice of IAT is based on discretion and intuition of the concerned managers and the reliance on ISPs. In this paper we propose a model and designs algorithms that are used in the Internet access technology specification. In the proposed model, three ranking approaches are introduced; concurrent ranking, stepwise ranking and weighted ranking. The model ranks the IAT based on distance measures computed in ascending order while the global ranking system assigns weights to each IAT according to the position held in each ranking technique, determines the total weight of a particular IAT and ranks them in descending order. The final output is an objective ranking of IAT in descending order.

Keywords: Internet Access Technology (IAT).

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6969 A Type-2 Fuzzy Model for Link Prediction in Social Network

Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

Abstract:

Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: Social Network, link prediction, granular computing, Type-2 fuzzy sets.

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6968 Monotonic and Cyclic J-integral Estimation for Through-Wall Cracked Straight Pipes

Authors: Rohit, S. Vishnuvardhan, P. Gandhi, Nagesh R. Iyer

Abstract:

The evaluation of energy release rate and centre Crack Opening Displacement (COD) for circumferential Through-Wall Cracked (TWC) pipes is an important issue in the assessment of critical crack length for unstable fracture. The ability to predict crack growth continues to be an important component of research for several structural materials. Crack growth predictions can aid the understanding of the useful life of a structural component and the determination of inspection intervals and criteria. In this context, studies were carried out at CSIR-SERC on Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) piping components subjected to monotonic as well as cyclic loading to assess the damage for crack growth due to low-cycle fatigue in circumferentially TWC pipes.

Keywords: 304LN stainless steel, cyclic J-integral, Elastic- Plastic Fracture Mechanics, J-integral, Through-wall crack

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6967 Steady State Temperature Distribution of Cast-Resin Dry Type Transformer Based on New Thermal Model Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Magdy B. Eteiba, Essam A. Alzahab, Yomna O. Shaker

Abstract:

In this paper, a thermal model of cast- resin dry type transformer is proposed. The proposed thermal model is solved by finite element technique to get the temperature at any location of the transformer. The basic modes of heat transfer such as conduction; convection and radiation are used to get the steady state temperature distribution of the transformer. The predicted temperatures are compared with experimental results reported in this paper and it is found a good agreement between them. The effects of various parameters such as width of air duct, ambient temperature and emissivity of the outer surface were also studied.

Keywords: Convection, dry type transformer, finite-elementtechnique, thermal model.

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6966 Reducing Defects through Organizational Learning within a Housing Association Environment

Authors: T. Hopkin, S. Lu, P. Rogers, M. Sexton

Abstract:

Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

Keywords: Defects, new homes, housing associations, organizational learning.

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6965 Uncertainty of the Brazilian Earth System Model for Solar Radiation

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty.

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