Search results for: Meteorological Drought

Authors: James D. Clark, Bernard H. Stark

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The paper presents a modelling methodology for small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.

Keywords: Energy Analysis, Forecasting, Distributed powergeneration.

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Authors: A. Bumbová, J. Kellner, J. Navrátil, D. Pluskal, M. Kozubková, E. Kozubek

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The paper deals with the possibilities of modelling vapour propagation of explosive substances in the FLUENT software. With regard to very low tensions of explosive substance vapours the experiment has been verified as exemplified by mononitrotoluene. Either constant or time variable meteorological conditions have been used for calculation. Further, it has been verified that the eluent source may be time-dependent and may reflect a real situation or the liberation rate may be constant. The execution of the experiment as well as evaluation were clear and it could also be used for modelling vapour and aerosol propagation of selected explosive substances in the atmospheric boundary layer.

Keywords: atmospheric boundary layer, explosive substances, FLUENT software, modelling of propagation

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Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

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Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: AI, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10.

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Authors: H. Ettouney, A. AL-Haddad, S. Saqer

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This paper focuses on assessment of air pollution in Umm-Alhyman, Kuwait, which is located south to oil refineries, power station, oil field, and highways. The measurements were made over a period of four days in March and July in 2001, 2004, and 2008. The measured pollutants included methanated and nonmethanated hydrocarbons (MHC, NMHC), CO, CO2, SO2, NOX, O3, and PM10. Also, meteorological parameters were measured, which includes temperature, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation. Over the study period, data analysis showed increase in measured SO2, NOX and CO by factors of 1.2, 5.5 and 2, respectively. This is explained in terms of increase in industrial activities, motor vehicle density, and power generation. Predictions of the measured data were made by the ISC-AERMOD software package and by using the ISCST3 model option. Finally, comparison was made between measured data against international standards.

Keywords: Air pollution, Emission inventory, ISCST3 model, Modeling

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Authors: Ahmed A. Hassan

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The agriculture industry in Somalia employs a large portion of the country's workforce. Somalia has been known for its production and notable agriculture for many years, the key sector that fuels the country's economy. Due to decades of civil conflict, poor administration, neglect, and a string of natural calamities, the Somali agricultural industry has suffered significant damage. The irrigation systems in Juba and Shabelle, the two major rivers, have failed and deteriorated. Crop output has decreased because of ongoing drought, poor agricultural techniques, desertification, and the exodus of rural people to neighboring nations. With pandemic levels of hunger and malnutrition brought on by climate change, Somalia has become one of the world's most food-insecure countries. Additionally, there is strong evidence that climate change, particularly in Somalia and other East African nations, has exacerbated civil wars across Africa. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation, which results in drier and warmer weather in tropical regions, may have contributed to numerous civil wars. Additionally, an increase in temperature is believed to raise the risk of internal armed conflict in sub-Saharan African nations. This paper examines Somalia's present extension programs, lists the challenges the nation's agricultural industry faces, and discusses the effects of climate change. Improvement measures are advised based on the analysis presented in the paper. This article's major goals are to highlight the serious challenges that Somali farmers face and to offer potential solutions for achieving sustainable agriculture and food security through the worst of climate change. Farmers, legislators, decision-makers, and academics may find the material in this article useful in developing credible plans, and policies, and in establishing research and extension programs. With improved extension systems, management, encouraging public investments, and an enabling climate, Somalia's agricultural industry can increase its resilience, the quality of life for its population, and the safety and added value of its goods. Offshore and coastal fisheries can contribute more to sector growth and return to and surpass their amazing pre-war output and export levels.

Keywords: Sustainable agriculture, innovation, land use, climate change, farm management, drought management, resilience, agri-business, agri-extension, farmer field schools, agricultural development.

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Authors: Othmane Fahim, Naoual Belouaggadia. Charifa David, Mohamed Ezzine

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To make better use of cooling resources, systems have been derived on the basis of the use of night radiator systems for heat pumping. Using the TRNSYS tool we determined the influence of the climatic characteristics of the two zones in Morocco on the temperature of the outer surface of a Photovoltaic Thermal Panel “PVT” made of aluminum. The proposal to improve the performance of the panel allowed us to have little heat absorption during the day and give the same performance of a panel made of aluminum at night. The variation in the granite-based panel temperature recorded a deviation from the other materials of 0.5 °C, 2.5 °C on the first day respectively in Marrakech and Casablanca, and 0.2 °C and 3.2 °C on the second night. Power varied between 110.16 and 32.01 W/m² marked in Marrakech, to be the most suitable area to practice night cooling by night radiation.

Keywords: Morocco, TRANSYS, radiative cooling.

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Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

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Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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Authors: Mohammadamin Zanganeh, Vahid Khalajzadeh

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The problems associated with wind predictions of WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding orography.

Keywords: Complex terrain, Meteorological mast, WAsPmodel, Wind prediction

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Authors: Li Wu

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Plant ecological stoichiometry, which is one of the most important tools to connect the components among different levels of ecosystem, has obtained increasingly extensive concern, especially on its responses to the environmental gradients. Based on the published literatures and datasets, this article focused on reviewing the variable responses of plant foliar ecological stoichiometry to the climatic factors, such as temperature, water, elevated CO₂, and found that foliar ecological stoichiometry responded dynamically to climatic variations among different regions and different growth forms. Then, research status and deficiency were summarized and the expectation on studying the relationships between plant C, N and P ecological stoichiometry and environmental variations which can provide a reference to understand how plants will respond to global change in the future was pointed out.

Keywords: Climatic variations, terrestrial plant, foliar ecological stoichiometry, temperature, precipitation, drought, elevated CO2.

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Authors: Christian Castro Samaniego, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Juan Portoviejo Brito

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For this research work, hybrid wind-photovoltaic (SHEF) systems were considered as renewable energy sources that take advantage of wind energy and solar radiation to transform into electrical energy. In the present research work, the feasibility of a wind-photovoltaic hybrid generation system was analyzed for the La Tranca tourist viewpoint of the Chordeleg canton in Ecuador. The research process consisted of the collection of data on solar radiation, temperature, wind speed among others by means of a meteorological station. Simulations were carried out in MATLAB/Simulink based on a mathematical model. In the end, we compared the theoretical radiation-power curves and the measurements made at the site.

Keywords: Hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, validation, experimental data, panel, Ecuador.

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Authors: D. Khodadadi Dehkordi

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This research was planned in order to study the effect of drought stress and different levels of Superabsorbent and their effect on grain yield, biologic yield and harvest index. In this study, 3 different depths of irrigation were considered as the main treatment I1, I2, I3 as 100, 75 and 50 percent of water requirement of plants respectively and different levels of Superabsorbent were used as secondary treatment (S0, S1, S2 and S3, equal to 0 (control), 15, 30 and 45 gr/m2 respectively). According to the results, independent effects of irrigation and Superabsorbent treatments at 1% level on biologic and grain yield of corn were significant. In addition, independent effect of irrigation treatments at 5% level on harvest index was significant. But independent effect of Superabsorbent treatments on harvest index was not significant.

Keywords: Corn, Deficit irrigation, Superabsorbent, Yield.

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Authors: Masoume Amirkhani, Kambiz Mashayekhi, Maurizio Lambardi

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Agropyron cristatum L. Gaertn. is a native grass of semiarid region in Iran which is quit resistant to cool and drought climate and withstand heavy grazing. This species has close phylogenetic relationship with Triticum and Hordeum. In this research, the effect of seven different concentrations of growth regulator 2,4-D on callus production and somatic embryogenesis of A. cristatum was investigated on Murashige and Skoog medium. The results showed that the rate of callus, embryo and neomorph were highest in 1 mg L-1 2,4-D. Callus production was increased in 1 mg L-1 2,4-D but dramatically decreased at 5.5 and 9 mg L-1 2,4-D. The somatic embryos were observed at 1 and 4 mg L-1 2,4-D but matured embryos and plantlet were only occurred at 1 mg L-1 2,4-D. There were significant differences between 1 mg L-1 2,4-D and other treatments for producing globular and torpedo embryos, plantlet, rooted callus and number of roots (p<0.05) and there was not any callus production and embryogenesis in control treatment without growth regulator.

Keywords: 2, 4-D, callus production, somatic embryogenesis, Agropyron cristatum.

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Authors: Dana Kristalova, Jan Mazal

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This article deals with geographical conditions in terrain and their effect on the movement of vehicles, their effect on speed and safety of movement of people and vehicles. Finding of the optimal routes outside the communication is studied in the Army environment, but it occur in civilian as well, primarily in crisis situation, or by the provision of assistance when natural disasters such as floods, fires, storms etc., have happened. These movements require the optimization of routes when effects of geographical factors should be included. The most important factor is the surface of a terrain. It is based on several geographical factors as are slopes, soil conditions, micro-relief, a type of surface and meteorological conditions. Their mutual impact has been given by coefficient of deceleration. This coefficient can be used for the commander`s decision. New approaches and methods of terrain testing, mathematical computing, mathematical statistics or cartometric investigation are necessary parts of this evaluation.

Keywords: Movement in a terrain, geographical factors, surface of a field, mathematical evaluation, optimization and searching paths.

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Authors: S. Kazemzadeh Hannani, A. Azimi, S. Nikoofard

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To simulate heating systems in buildings, a research oriented computer code has been developed in Sharif University of Technology in Iran where the climate, existing heating equipment in buildings, consumer behavior and their interactions are considered for simulating energy consumption in conventional systems such as heaters, radiators and fan-coils. In order to validate the computer code, the available data of five buildings was used and the computed consumed energy was compared with the estimated energy extracted from monthly bills. The initial heating system was replaced by the alternative system and the effect of this change was observed on the energy consumption. As a result, the effect of changing heating equipment on energy consumption was investigated in different climates. Changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% in all climates and changing radiator to fan-coil decreases energy consumption in climates with cold and dry winter.

Keywords: Energy consumption, heating system, energy simulation.

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Authors: S. Kazemzadeh Hannani, A. Azimi, S. Nikoofard

Abstract:

To simulate heating systems in buildings, a research oriented computer code has been developed in Sharif University of Technology in Iran where the climate, existing heating equipment in buildings, consumer behavior and their interactions are considered for simulating energy consumption in conventional systems such as heaters, radiators and fan-coils. In order to validate the computer code, the available data of five buildings was used and the computed consumed energy was compared with the estimated energy extracted from monthly bills. The initial heating system was replaced by the alternative system and the effect of this change was observed on the energy consumption. As a result, the effect of changing heating equipment on energy consumption was investigated in different climates. Changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50% in all climates and changing radiator to fan-coil decreases energy consumption in climates with cold and dry winter.

Keywords: Energy consumption, heating system, energy simulation.

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Authors: B. Prebreza, I. Krasniqi, G. Kabashi, G. Pula, N. Avdiu

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This paper discusses aspects of outages in the electric transmission network in the Kosovo Power System caused by the atmospheric discharges.

Frequency and location of the atmospheric discharges in Kosovo territory will be provided by a lightning location system ALARM (Automated Lightning Alert and Risk Management) and from the data from the Meteorological Department in Prishtina International Airport. These data will be used to make comparisons with the actual outages registered in the Kosovo Power System from the Kosovo Transmission, systems and market operator (KOSTT) during a specific time period.

The lines with the worst performance determined, regarding the atmospheric discharges, will be choose for further discussions in terms of over voltages caused by the direct or indirect lightning strokes.

Recommendations for protection in terms of insulator coordination and surge arresters will be given at the end and in this stage dynamic simulation will take part.

Keywords: Atmospheric discharges, dynamic simulations, Kosovo Power System, surge arresters.

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Authors: Hala A. Hassan, Vasiliki K. Tsiouri, Konstantinos E. Konstantinos

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Fugitive particulate matter (PM) is a major source of airborne pollution in the Middle East countries. The meteorological conditions and topography of the area makes it highly susceptible to wind-blown particles which raise many air quality concerns. Air quality tools such as field monitoring, emission factors and dispersion modeling have been used in previous research studies to analyze the release and impacts of fugitive PM in the region. However, these tools have been originally developed based on experiments made for European and North American regions. In this work, an experimental campaign was conducted on April-May 2014 in a construction site in Doha city, Qatar. The ultimate goal is to evaluate the applicability of the existing emission factors for construction sites in dry and arid areas like the Middle East.

Keywords: Air pollution, construction, emissions, middle east, fugitive particulate matter.

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Authors: Sh. A. Yousif, M. Bhave

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There is strong evidence that water channel proteins 'aquaporins (AQPs)' are central components in plant-water relations as well as a number of other physiological parameters. We had previously reported the isolation of 24 plasma membrane intrinsic protein (PIP) type AQPs. However, the gene numbers in rice and the polyploid nature of bread wheat indicated a high probability of further genes in the latter. The present work focused on identification of further AQP isoforms in bread wheat. With the use of altered primer design, we identified five genes homologous, designated PIP1;5b, PIP2;9b, TaPIP2;2, TaPIP2;2a, TaPIP2;2b. Sequence alignments indicate PIP1;5b, PIP2;9b are likely to be homeologues of two previously reported genes while the other three are new genes and could be homeologs of each other. The results indicate further AQP diversity in wheat and the sequence data will enable physical mapping of these genes to identify their genomes as well as genetic to determine their association with any quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with plant-water relation such as salinity or drought tolerance.

Keywords: Aquaporins, homeologues, PIP, wheat

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Authors: Vaclav David, Tereza Davidova

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The restoration of extinct ponds is considered as one of ways to gain new retention capacities for water which is getting much more important issue with respect to expected impacts of a climate change. However, there are also other pressures on the landscape which must be all taken into consideration when making a decision on the possible restoration of extinct ponds. The research presented here focuses besides others on the restoration of former ponds which could be important for both the flood protection and drought impacts prevention. The first step of the methodology development for the assessment of such areas is the assessment of their present state. In this paper, the results of land use types assessment for 22 localities are presented. These results confirm the assumption that the most present land use type in such areas is the permanent grassland. However, the spectra of land use types present in extinct pond areas is very diverse and include besides others also airport areas and industry.

Keywords: Extinct pond, land use change, sustainable water resources management, pond restoration.

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Authors: Mohammad Hosein Hojati , Fardin Boustani

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Groundwater resources in Arsanjan plain provide water for agriculture, industry, and human consumption. Continued agricultural development in this area needs to additional groundwater resources for, particularly during of drought periods, and effects on the quantity and quality of ground water available. The purpose of this study is to evaluate water level changes in the aquifer of Arsanjan plain in the Fars province in order to determine the areas of greatest depletion and the causes of depletion. In this plain, farmers and other users are pumping groundwater faster than its natural replenishment rate, causing a continuous drop in groundwater tables and depletion of this resource. In this research variation of groundwater level, their effects and ways to help control groundwater levels in aquifer of the Arsanjan plains were evaluated .Excessive exploitation of groundwater in this aquifer caused the groundwater levels fall too fast or to unacceptable levels. The average drawdown of the groundwater level in this plain were 19.66 meters during 1996 to 2003.

Keywords: Aquifer , ground water depletion, water table

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Authors: Roy R. Gu, Mahesh Sahu

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The use of contour strips of perennial vegetation with bio-fuel potential can improve surface water quality by reducing NO3-N and sediment outflow from cropland to surface water-bodies. It also has economic benefits of producing ethanol. In this study, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to a watershed in Iowa, USA to examine the effectiveness of contour strips of switch grass in reducing the NO3-N outflows from crop fields to rivers or lakes. Numerical experiments were conducted to identify potential subbasins in the watershed that have high water quality impact, and to examine the effects of strip size on NO3-N reduction under various meteorological conditions, i.e. dry, average and wet years. Useful information was obtained for the evaluation of economic feasibility of growing switch grass for bio-fuel in contour strips. The results can assist in cost-benefit analysis and decisionmaking in best management practices for environmental protection.

Keywords: ethanol, modeling, water quality, NO3-N, watershed.

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Authors: St. Subaedah, A. Takdir, Netty, D. Hidrawati

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Maize development at the rainfed lowland after rice is often confronted with the occurrence of drought stress at the time of entering the generative phase, which will cause be hampered crop production. Consequently, in the utilization of the rainfed lowland areas optimally, an effort that can be done using the varieties of early maturity to minimize crop failures due to its short rainy season. The aim of this research was evaluating the potential yield of genotypes of candidates of maize early maturity in the rainfed lowland areas. The study was conducted during May to August 2016 at South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The study used randomized block design to compare 12 treatments and consists of 8 genotypes namely CH1, CH2, CH3, CH4, CH5, CH6, CH7, CH8 and the use of four varieties, namely Bima 3, Bima 7, Lamuru and Gumarang. The results showed that genotype of CH2, CH3, CH5, CH 6, CH7 and CH8 harvesting has less than 90 days. There are two genotypes namely genotypes of CH7 and CH8 that have a fairly high production respectively of 7.16 tons / ha and 8.11 tons/ ha and significantly not different from the superior varieties Bima3.

Keywords: Evaluation, maize, early maturity, yield potential.

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Authors: Reza Sedaghati

Abstract:

Given the increasing energy demand in the world as well as limited fossil energy fuel resources, it is necessary to use renewable energy resources more than ever. Developing a hybrid energy system is suggested to overcome the intermittence of renewable energy resources such as sun and wind, in which the excess electrical energy can be converted and stored. While these resources store the energy, they can provide a more reliable system that is really suitable for off-grid applications. In hybrid systems, a methodology for optimal sizing of power generation systems components is of great importance in terms of economic aspects and efficiency. In this study, a hybrid energy system is designed to supply an off-grid sample load pattern with the aim of supplying necessary energy and minimizing the total production cost throughout the system life as well as increasing the reliability. For this purpose, the optimal size and the cost function of these resources is determined and minimized using evolutionary algorithms and system efficiency is studied with real-time load and meteorological information of Kazerun, a city in southern Iran under different conditions.

Keywords: Hybrid energy system, intelligent method, optimal size, minimal.

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Authors: Fl. Loury, P. Sablonière, C. Lamoureux, G. Magnier, Th. Gutierrez

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A method is proposed to extract faithful representative patterns from data set of observations when they are suffering from non-negligible fluctuations. Supposing time interval between measurements to be extremely small compared to observation time, it consists in defining first a subset of intermediate time intervals characterizing coherent behavior. Data projection on these intervals gives a set of curves out of which an ideally “perfect” one is constructed by taking the sup limit of them. Then comparison with average real curve in corresponding interval gives an efficiency parameter expressing the degradation consecutive to fluctuation effect. The method is applied to sunlight data collected in a specific place, where ideal sunlight is the one resulting from direct exposure at location latitude over the year, and efficiency is resulting from action of meteorological parameters, mainly cloudiness, at different periods of the year. The extracted information already gives interesting element of decision, before being used for analysis of plant control.

Keywords: Base Input Reconstruction, Data Mining, Efficiency Factor, Information Pattern Operator.

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

Abstract:

Several meteorological parameters were used for the  prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on  horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological  data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine  duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design  and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based  prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system  based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the  proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results  were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing  empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the  advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series  solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Networks, Global Solar Radiation, Multi-layer perceptron, gradient, Root Mean Square Error.

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Authors: Debojyoti Mitra

Abstract:

Higher capacities of power plants together with increased awareness on environmental considerations have led to taller height of stacks. It is seen that strong wind can result in falling of stacks. So, aerodynamic consideration of stacks is very important in order to save the falling of stacks. One stack is not enough in industries and power sectors and two or three stacks are required for proper operation of the unit. It is very important to arrange the stacks in proper way to resist their downfall. The present experimental study concentrates on the mutual effect of three nearby stacks on each other at three different arrangements, viz. linear, side-by-side and triangular. The experiments find out the directions of resultant forces acting on the stacks in different configurations so that proper arrangement of supports can be made with respect to the wind directionality obtained from local meteorological data. One can also easily ascertain which stack is more vulnerable to wind in comparison to the others for a particular configuration. Thus, this study is important in studying the effect of wind force on three stacks in different arrangements and is very helpful in placing the supports in proper places in order to avoid failing of stack-like structures due to wind.

Keywords: Stacks, relative positioning, drag and lift forces, resultant forces and supports.

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Authors: Ben Richard Hughes, Hassam Nasarullah Chaudhry

Abstract:

The main aim of this work is to establish the capabilities of new green buildings to ascertain off-grid electricity generation based on the integration of wind turbines in the conceptual model of a rotating tower [2] in Dubai. An in depth performance analysis of the WinWind 3.0MW [3] wind turbine is performed. Data based on the Dubai Meteorological Services is collected and analyzed in conjunction with the performance analysis of this wind turbine. The mathematical model is compared with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results based on a conceptual rotating tower design model. The comparison results are further validated and verified for accuracy by conducting experiments on a scaled prototype of the tower design. The study concluded that integrating wind turbines inside a rotating tower can generate enough electricity to meet the required power consumption of the building, which equates to a wind farm containing 9 horizontal axis wind turbines located at an approximate area of 3,237,485 m2 [14].

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, green building, horizontal axis wind turbine, rotating tower, velocity gradient.

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Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961- 2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: Air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change.

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Authors: Shun Hattori

Abstract:

In recent years, many researches to mine the exploding Web world, especially User Generated Content (UGC) such as weblogs, for knowledge about various phenomena and events in the physical world have been done actively, and also Web services with the Web-mined knowledge have begun to be developed for the public. However, there are few detailed investigations on how accurately Web-mined data reflect physical-world data. It must be problematic to idolatrously utilize the Web-mined data in public Web services without ensuring their accuracy sufficiently. Therefore, this paper introduces the simplest Web Sensor and spatiotemporallynormalized Web Sensor to extract spatiotemporal data about a target phenomenon from weblogs searched by keyword(s) representing the target phenomenon, and tries to validate the potential and reliability of the Web-sensed spatiotemporal data by four kinds of granularity analyses of coefficient correlation with temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and earthquake statistics per day by region of Japan Meteorological Agency as physical-world data: spatial granularity (region-s population density), temporal granularity (time period, e.g., per day vs. per week), representation granularity (e.g., “rain" vs. “heavy rain"), and media granularity (weblogs vs. microblogs such as Tweets).

Keywords: Granularity analysis, knowledge extraction, spatiotemporal data mining, Web credibility, Web mining, Web sensor.

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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An Artificial Neural Network based modeling technique has been used to study the influence of different combinations of meteorological parameters on evaporation from a reservoir. The data set used is taken from an earlier reported study. Several input combination were tried so as to find out the importance of different input parameters in predicting the evaporation. The prediction accuracy of Artificial Neural Network has also been compared with the accuracy of linear regression for predicting evaporation. The comparison demonstrated superior performance of Artificial Neural Network over linear regression approach. The findings of the study also revealed the requirement of all input parameters considered together, instead of individual parameters taken one at a time as reported in earlier studies, in predicting the evaporation. The highest correlation coefficient (0.960) along with lowest root mean square error (0.865) was obtained with the input combination of air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and mean relative humidity. A graph between the actual and predicted values of evaporation suggests that most of the values lie within a scatter of ±15% with all input parameters. The findings of this study suggest the usefulness of ANN technique in predicting the evaporation losses from reservoirs.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, evaporation losses, multiple linear regression, modeling.

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