Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 30379
Long Term Variability of Temperature in Armenia in the Context of Climate Change

Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961- 2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: Air Temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1110660

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1694

References:


[1] Chatrchyan S (1999) The analyze of meteorological data and possible scenarios of climate change in Armenia, Climate change issues in Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:37-49
[2] Hubert P, Carbonne J (1993) “Segmentation des séries annuelles de débits de grands fleu vesa fricains”. Bulletin de liaison du CIEH 92:3- 10.
[3] Jones P (1988) Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variations: Recent Trends and an Update to 1987,Journalof Climate Vol. 1:654-660
[4] Jones P ,Wigley T, Wright P (1986) Global Temperature Variations between 1861 and 1984, Nature, Vol. 322: 430-434
[5] Lee A, Heghinian S (1977) A Shift of the Mean Level in a Sequence of Independent Normal Random Variables - A Bayesian Approach, Technometricsvol.19, n°4:503-506.
[6] Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13: 245-259.
[7] Melkonyan H (1999) Variability and predictability of climate changes on the territory of Armenia, Climate change issues in Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:10-15.
[8] Melkonyan H, Baloyan A (2003) About one approach to the assessment of climate change on the territory of Armenia, Climate change issues in Armenia, A collection of articles, 2nd edn, Yerevan:270-276.
[9] Mokhov I, Eliseev A, Semenov B (1999) Possible scenarios of climate change in Armenia by results of numerical simulation with using of IAP RAS climate model, Climate change issues in Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:22-36.
[10] Parker D, Horton E (1999) Global and Regional Climate in 1998, Weather, Vol. 54:173-184.
[11] Pettitt A (1979) A non - parametric approach to the change-point problem, Applied Statistics vol.28, n°2:126 – 135.
[12] Scafetta N, West B (2005) Estimated Solar Contribution to the Global Surface Warming Using the ACRIM TSI Satellite Composite, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.32: L18713.
[13] Stokes C, Gurney S, Shahgedanova M, Popovnin V (2006) Late 20th century changes in glacier extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, Journal of Glaciology (52):99-109.
[14] Tayanc M, ulasim, Dogruel M, Karaca M (2008) Climate change in Turkey for the last half century. Springer Science + Business Media B.V., Climatic Change (2009) 94:483–502.doi: 10.1007/s10584-008- 9511-0.
[15] Vinnikov K, Grody N (2003) Global Warming Trend of Mean Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellites, Science, Vol. 302: 269-272.
[16] Von Storch H, Navarra A (1995) Analysis of Climate Variability — Applications of Statistical Techniques, Springer- Verlag, New York: 334
[17] Zoryan Z (1999) Evaluation of variations of in land air temperature anomaly (LATA) on territory of the Republic of Armenia, Climate change issues in Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:16- 21.
[18] Georgia’s Initial National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, (1999) Tbilisi
[19] Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009), Tbilisi.
[20] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate change (2007) The physical science basis. In: Solomon Q, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z et al, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[21] IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, In: mccarthy J, Canziani O, Leary N, Dokken D, White K et al, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the (IPCC),World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environment Programme, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[22] Nersisyan A (1964) Climate in Armenia, Arm. State Hydromet., Yerevan.
[23] Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region (2011), Tbilisi.
[24] The First National Communication of The Republic of Armenia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1998), Yerevan.
[25] The Second National Communication on Climate Change (2010), "Lusabats" Publishing House, Yerevan.
[26] Climate change issues in Armenia, a collection of articles, First ED (1999), Yerevan, 373p.
[27] Climate change issues in Armenia, a collection of articles, Second ED (2003), Yerevan, 353p.