Search results for: Mutualism population model
7127 A Physically-Based Analytical Model for Reduced Surface Field Laterally Double Diffused MOSFETs
Authors: M. Abouelatta, A. Shaker, M. El-Banna, G. T. Sayah, C. Gontrand, A. Zekry
Abstract:
In this paper, a methodology for physically modeling the intrinsic MOS part and the drift region of the n-channel Laterally Double-diffused MOSFET (LDMOS) is presented. The basic physical effects like velocity saturation, mobility reduction, and nonuniform impurity concentration in the channel are taken into consideration. The analytical model is implemented using MATLAB. A comparison of the simulations from technology computer aided design (TCAD) and that from the proposed analytical model, at room temperature, shows a satisfactory accuracy which is less than 5% for the whole voltage domain.
Keywords: LDMOS, MATLAB, RESURF, modeling, TCAD.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10627126 Fuzzy Control of Macroeconomic Models
Authors: Andre A. Keller
Abstract:
The optimal control is one of the possible controllers for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method . Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time. This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm. A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model of Goodwin.Keywords: fuzzy control, macroeconomic model, multiplier - accelerator, nonlinear accelerator, stabilization policy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19947125 Phthalate Exposure among Roma Population in Slovakia
Authors: Miroslava Šidlovská, Ida Petrovičová, Tomáš Pilka, Branislav Kolena
Abstract:
Phthalates are ubiquitous environmental pollutants well known because of their endocrine disrupting activity in human organism. The aim of our study was, by biological monitoring, investigate exposure to phthalates of Roma ethnicity group i.e. children and adults from 5 families (n=29, average age 11.8 ± 7.6 years) living in western Slovakia. Additionally, we analysed some associations between anthropometric measures, questionnaire data i.e. socio-economic status, eating and drinking habits, practise of personal care products and household conditions in comparison with concentrations of phthalate metabolites. We used for analysis of urine samples high performance liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) to determine concentrations of phthalate metabolites monoethyl phthalate (MEP), mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP), mono-iso-butyl phthalate (MiBP), mono(2-ethyl- 5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate (5OH-MEHP), mono(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl) phthalate (5oxo-MEHP) and mono(2-etylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP). Our results indicate that ethnicity, lower socioeconomic status and different housing conditions in Roma population can affect urinary concentration of phthalate metabolites.Keywords: Biomonitoring, ethnicity, human exposure, phthalate metabolites.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18107124 Estimating Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity from Soil Physical Properties using Neural Networks Model
Authors: B. Ghanbarian-Alavijeh, A.M. Liaghat, S. Sohrabi
Abstract:
Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks (NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density, van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r θ , α , and n) as well as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s θ is saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point. Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method (2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).Keywords: Neural network, Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Soil physical properties.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25577123 Development of Manufacturing Simulation Model for Semiconductor Fabrication
Authors: Syahril Ridzuan Ab Rahim, Ibrahim Ahmad, Mohd Azizi Chik, Ahmad Zafir Md. Rejab, and U. Hashim
Abstract:
This research presents the development of simulation modeling for WIP management in semiconductor fabrication. Manufacturing simulation modeling is needed for productivity optimization analysis due to the complex process flows involved more than 35 percent re-entrance processing steps more than 15 times at same equipment. Furthermore, semiconductor fabrication required to produce high product mixed with total processing steps varies from 300 to 800 steps and cycle time between 30 to 70 days. Besides the complexity, expansive wafer cost that potentially impact the company profits margin once miss due date is another motivation to explore options to experiment any analysis using simulation modeling. In this paper, the simulation model is developed using existing commercial software platform AutoSched AP, with customized integration with Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) and Advanced Productivity Family (APF) for data collections used to configure the model parameters and data source. Model parameters such as processing steps cycle time, equipment performance, handling time, efficiency of operator are collected through this customization. Once the parameters are validated, few customizations are made to ensure the prior model is executed. The accuracy for the simulation model is validated with the actual output per day for all equipments. The comparison analysis from result of the simulation model compared to actual for achieved 95 percent accuracy for 30 days. This model later was used to perform various what if analysis to understand impacts on cycle time and overall output. By using this simulation model, complex manufacturing environment like semiconductor fabrication (fab) now have alternative source of validation for any new requirements impact analysis.Keywords: Advanced Productivity Family (APF), Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS), Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES), Work In Progress (WIP).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32187122 The Traditional Malay Textile (TMT)Knowledge Model: Transformation towards Automated Mapping
Authors: Syerina Azlin Md Nasir, Nor Laila Md Noor, Suriyati Razali
Abstract:
The growing interest on national heritage preservation has led to intensive efforts on digital documentation of cultural heritage knowledge. Encapsulated within this effort is the focus on ontology development that will help facilitate the organization and retrieval of the knowledge. Ontologies surrounding cultural heritage domain are related to archives, museum and library information such as archaeology, artifacts, paintings, etc. The growth in number and size of ontologies indicates the well acceptance of its semantic enrichment in many emerging applications. Nowadays, there are many heritage information systems available for access. Among others is community-based e-museum designed to support the digital cultural heritage preservation. This work extends previous effort of developing the Traditional Malay Textile (TMT) Knowledge Model where the model is designed with the intention of auxiliary mapping with CIDOC CRM. Due to its internal constraints, the model needs to be transformed in advance. This paper addresses the issue by reviewing the previous harmonization works with CIDOC CRM as exemplars in refining the facets in the model particularly involving TMT-Artifact class. The result is an extensible model which could lead to a common view for automated mapping with CIDOC CRM. Hence, it promotes integration and exchange of textile information especially batik-related between communities in e-museum applications.Keywords: automated mapping, cultural heritage, knowledgemodel, textile practice
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23027121 Modelling Extreme Temperature in Malaysia Using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution
Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam
Abstract:
Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28357120 Reliable Face Alignment Using Two-Stage AAM
Authors: Sunho Ki, Daehwan Kim, Seongwon Cho, Sun-Tae Chung, Jaemin Kim, Yun-Kwang Hong, Chang Joon Park, Dongmin Kwon, Minhee Kang, Yusung Kim, Younghan Yoon
Abstract:
AAM (active appearance model) has been successfully applied to face and facial feature localization. However, its performance is sensitive to initial parameter values. In this paper, we propose a two-stage AAM for robust face alignment, which first fits an inner face-AAM model to the inner facial feature points of the face and then localizes the whole face and facial features by optimizing the whole face-AAM model parameters. Experiments show that the proposed face alignment method using two-stage AAM is more reliable to the background and the head pose than the standard AAM-based face alignment method.Keywords: AAM, Face Alignment, Feature Extraction, PCA
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14777119 A Scatter Search and Help Policies Approaches for a New Mixed Model Assembly Lines Sequencing Problem
Authors: N. Manavizadeh , M. Rabbani , H. Sotudian , F. Jolai
Abstract:
Mixed Model Production is the practice of assembling several distinct and different models of a product on the same assembly line without changeovers and then sequencing those models in a way that smoothes the demand for upstream components. In this paper, we consider an objective function which minimizes total stoppage time and total idle time and it is presented sequence dependent set up time. Many studies have been done on the mixed model assembly lines. But in this paper we specifically focused on reducing the idle times. This is possible through various help policies. For improving the solutions, some cases developed and about 40 tests problem was considered. We use scatter search for optimization and for showing the efficiency of our algorithm, experimental results shows behavior of method. Scatter search and help policies can produce high quality answers, so it has been used in this paper.Keywords: mixed model assembly lines, Scatter search, help policies, idle time, Stoppage time
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14917118 Determining of Stage-Discharge Relationship for Meandering Compound Channels Using M5 Decision Tree Model
Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Khalil Ghorbani
Abstract:
In modeling phenomena, the presence of local conditions may cause the use of a general relation not to produce good results and thus fail to demonstrate local changes. If possible, identifying homogenous limits and providing simple linear relations for each of these limits will increase the accuracy of models. Accordingly, the models are divided into simpler and smaller problems to solve complicated problems, and the obtained answers will be combined. This simple idea can be applied to decision tree models. For this aim, the input data values are divided into several sub-intervals or sub-regions, and an appropriate model is extracted for an appropriate model or equation. This research proposes the M5 decision tree method as a solution to accurately compute the flow discharge in meandering compound channels.
Keywords: Stage-discharge relationship, decision tree, M5 decision tree model, meandering compound channels.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2467117 Modeling Ambient Carbon Monoxide Pollutant Due to Road Traffic
Authors: Anjaneyulu M.V.L.R., Harikrishna M., Chenchuobulu S.
Abstract:
Rapid urbanization, industrialization and population growth have led to an increase in number of automobiles that cause air pollution. It is estimated that road traffic contributes 60% of air pollution in urban areas. A case by case assessment is required to predict the air quality in urban situations, so as to evolve certain traffic management measures to maintain the air quality levels with in the tolerable limits. Calicut city in the state of Kerala, India has been chosen as the study area. Carbon Monoxide (CO) concentration was monitored at 15 links in Calicut city and air quality performance was evaluated over each link. The CO pollutant concentration values were compared with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and the CO values were predicted by using CALINE4 and IITLS and Linear regression models. The study has revealed that linear regression model performs better than the CALINE4 and IITLS models. The possible association between CO pollutant concentration and traffic parameters like traffic flow, type of vehicle, and traffic stream speed was also evaluated.Keywords: CO pollution, Modelling, Traffic stream parameters.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23667116 Experimental Investigation and Constitutive Modeling of Volume Strain under Uniaxial Strain Rate Jump Test in HDPE
Authors: Rida B. Arieby, Hameed N. Hameed
Abstract:
In this work, tensile tests on high density polyethylene have been carried out under various constant strain rate and strain rate jump tests. The dependency of the true stress and specially the variation of volume strain have been investigated, the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage was determined in real time during the tests by an optical extensometer called Videotraction. A modified constitutive equations, including strain rate and damage effects, are proposed, such a model is based on a non-equilibrium thermodynamic approach called (DNLR). The ability of the model to predict the complex nonlinear response of this polymer is examined by comparing the model simulation with the available experimental data, which demonstrate that this model can represent the deformation behavior of the polymer reasonably well.
Keywords: Strain rate jump tests, Volume Strain, High Density Polyethylene, Large strain, Thermodynamics approach.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21237115 The Trend of Injuries in Building Fire in Tehran from 2002 to 2012
Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian
Abstract:
Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.
Keywords: Fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7697114 Effects of Level Densities and Those of a-Parameter in the Framework of Preequilibrium Model for 63,65Cu(n,xp) Reactions in Neutrons at 9 to 15 MeV
Authors: L. Yettou
Abstract:
In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by 63Cu(n,xp) and 65Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.
Keywords: Preequilibrium models, level density, level density a-parameter, 63Cu(n, xp) and 65Cu(n, xp) reactions.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5227113 A Data Mining Model for Detecting Financial and Operational Risk Indicators of SMEs
Authors: Ali Serhan Koyuncugil, Nermin Ozgulbas
Abstract:
In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
Keywords: Risk Management, Financial Risk, Operational Risk, Financial Early Warning System, Data Mining, CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm, SMEs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 31237112 CFD Study of Subcooled Boiling Flow at Elevated Pressure Using a Mechanistic Wall Heat Partitioning Model
Authors: Machimontorn Promtong, Sherman C. P. Cheung, Guan H. Yeoh, Sara Vahaji, Jiyuan Tu
Abstract:
The wide range of industrial applications involved with boiling flows promotes the necessity of establishing fundamental knowledge in boiling flow phenomena. For this purpose, a number of experimental and numerical researches have been performed to elucidate the underlying physics of this flow. In this paper, the improved wall boiling models, implemented on ANSYS CFX 14.5, were introduced to study subcooled boiling flow at elevated pressure. At the heated wall boundary, the Fractal model, Force balance approach and Mechanistic frequency model are given for predicting the nucleation site density, bubble departure diameter, and bubble departure frequency. The presented wall heat flux partitioning closures were modified to consider the influence of bubble sliding along the wall before the lift-off, which usually happens in the flow boiling. The simulation was performed based on the Two-fluid model, where the standard k-ω SST model was selected for turbulence modelling. Existing experimental data at around 5 bars were chosen to evaluate the accuracy of the presented mechanistic approach. The void fraction and Interfacial Area Concentration (IAC) are in good agreement with the experimental data. However, the predicted bubble velocity and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) are over-predicted. This over-prediction may be caused by consideration of only dispersed and spherical bubbles in the simulations. In the future work, the important physical mechanisms of bubbles, such as merging and shrinking during sliding on the heated wall will be incorporated into this mechanistic model to enhance its capability for a wider range of flow prediction.
Keywords: CFD, mechanistic model, subcooled boiling flow, two-fluid model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12707111 Using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP Codes to Analyze the Load Rejection Transient of ABWR
Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, A. L. Ho, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih
Abstract:
The purpose of the study is to analyze the load rejection transient of ABWR by using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes. This study has some steps. First, using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes establish the model of ABWR. Second, the key parameters are identified to refine the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model further in the frame of a steady state analysis. Third, the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model is used to perform the load rejection transient analysis. Finally, the FSAR data are used to compare with the analysis results. The results of TRACE/PARCS are consistent with the FSAR data for the important parameters. It indicates that the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model of ABWR has a good accuracy in the load rejection transient.
Keywords: ABWR, TRACE, PARCS, SNAP.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8257110 Support Vector Machine Prediction Model of Early-stage Lung Cancer Based on Curvelet Transform to Extract Texture Features of CT Image
Authors: Guo Xiuhua, Sun Tao, Wu Haifeng, He Wen, Liang Zhigang, Zhang Mengxia, Guo Aimin, Wang Wei
Abstract:
Purpose: To explore the use of Curvelet transform to extract texture features of pulmonary nodules in CT image and support vector machine to establish prediction model of small solitary pulmonary nodules in order to promote the ratio of detection and diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer. Methods: 2461 benign or malignant small solitary pulmonary nodules in CT image from 129 patients were collected. Fourteen Curvelet transform textural features were as parameters to establish support vector machine prediction model. Results: Compared with other methods, using 252 texture features as parameters to establish prediction model is more proper. And the classification consistency, sensitivity and specificity for the model are 81.5%, 93.8% and 38.0% respectively. Conclusion: Based on texture features extracted from Curvelet transform, support vector machine prediction model is sensitive to lung cancer, which can promote the rate of diagnosis for early-stage lung cancer to some extent.Keywords: CT image, Curvelet transform, Small pulmonary nodules, Support vector machines, Texture extraction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27667109 Geopotential Models Evaluation in Algeria Using Stochastic Method, GPS/Leveling and Topographic Data
Authors: M. A. Meslem
Abstract:
For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.
Keywords: Quasigeoid, gravity anomalies, covariance, GGM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8987108 Learning Styles of University Students in Bangkok: The Characteristics and the Relevant Instructional Context
Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee
Abstract:
The purposes of this study are 1) to identify learning styles of university students in Bangkok, and 2) to study the frequency of the relevant instructional context of the identified learning styles. Learning Styles employed in this study are those of Honey and Mumford, which include 1) Reflectors, 2) Theorists, 3) Pragmatists, and 4) Activists. The population comprises 1383 students and 5 lecturers. Research tools are 2 questionnaires – one used for identifying students- learning styles, and the other used for identifying the frequency of the relevant instructional context of the identified learning styles. The research findings reveal that 32.30 percent - are Activists, while 28.10 percent are Theorists, 20.10 are Reflectors, and 19.50 are Pragmatists. In terms of the relevant instructional context of the identified 4 learning styles, it is found that the frequency level of the instructional context is totally in high level. Moreover, 2 lists of the context being conducted most frequently are 'Lead'in activity to review background knowledge,- and 'Information retrieval report.' And these two activities serve the learning styles of theorists and activists. It is, therefore, suggested that more instructional context supporting the activists, the majority of the population, learning best by doing, as well as emotional learning situation should be added.Keywords: Instructional Context, Learning Styles, Learning Style Preference, and Learning Style Questionnaire.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18527107 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations
Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin
Abstract:
Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.
Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1877106 Propagation Model for a Mass-Mailing Worm with Mailing List
Authors: Akira Kanaoka, Eiji Okamoto
Abstract:
Mass-mail type worms have threatened to become a large problem for the Internet. Although many researchers have analyzed such worms, there are few studies that consider worm propagation via mailing lists. In this paper, we present a mass-mailing type worm propagation model including the mailing list effect on the propagation. We study its propagation by simulation with a real e¬mail social network model. We show that the impact of the mailing list on the mass-mail worm propagation is significant, even if the mailing list is not large.
Keywords: Malware, simulation, complex networks
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18587105 Simulation of 3D Flow using Numerical Model at Open-channel Confluences
Authors: R.Goudarzizadeh, S.H.Mousavi Jahromi, N.Hedayat
Abstract:
This paper analytically investigates the 3D flow pattern at the confluences of two rectangular channels having 900 angles using Navier-Stokes equations based on Reynolds Stress Turbulence Model (RSM). The equations are solved by the Finite- Volume Method (FVM) and the flow is analyzed in terms of steadystate (single-phased) conditions. The Shumate experimental findings were used to test the validity of data. Comparison of the simulation model with the experimental ones indicated a close proximity between the flow patterns of the two sets. Effects of the discharge ratio on separation zone dimensions created in the main-channel downstream of the confluence indicated an inverse relation, where a decrease in discharge ratio, will entail an increase in the length and width of the separation zone. The study also found the model as a powerful analytical tool in the feasibility study of hydraulic engineering projects.Keywords: 900 confluence angle, flow separation zone, numerical modeling, turbulent flow.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18627104 The Performance of an 802.11g/Wi-Fi Network Whilst Streaming Voice Content
Authors: P. O. Umenne, Odhiambo Marcel O.
Abstract:
A simple network model is developed in OPNET to study the performance of the Wi-Fi protocol. The model is simulated in OPNET and performance factors such as load, throughput and delay are analysed from the model. Four applications such as oracle, http, ftp and voice are applied over the Wireless LAN network to determine the throughput. The voice application utilises a considerable amount of bandwidth of up to 5Mbps, as a result the 802.11g standard of the Wi-Fi protocol was chosen which can support a data rate of up to 54Mbps. Results indicate that when the load in the Wi-Fi network is increased the queuing delay on the point-to-point links in the Wi-Fi network significantly reduces until it is comparable to that of WiMAX. In conclusion, the queuing delay of the Wi-Fi protocol for the network model simulated was about 0.00001secs comparable to WiMAX network values.Keywords: WLAN-Wireless Local Area Network, MIMO-Multiple Input Multiple Output, Queuing delay, Throughput, AP-Access Point, IP-Internet protocol, TOS-Type of Service.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21327103 Mathematical Models for Overall Gas Transfer Coefficient Using Different Theories and Evaluating Their Measurement Accuracy
Authors: Shashank.B. Thakre, Lalit.B. Bhuyar, Samir.J. Deshmukh
Abstract:
Oxygen transfer, the process by which oxygen is transferred from the gaseous to liquid phase, is a vital part of the waste water treatment process. Because of low solubility of oxygen and consequent low rate of oxygen transfer, sufficient oxygen to meet the requirement of aerobic waste does not enter through normal surface air water interface. Many theories have come up in explaining the mechanism of gas transfer and absorption of non-reacting gases in a liquid, of out of which, Two film theory is important. An exiting mathematical model determines approximate value of Overall Gas Transfer coefficient. The Overall Gas Transfer coefficient, in case of Penetration theory, is 1.13 time more than that obtained in case of Two film theory. The difference is due to the difference in assumptions in the two theories. The paper aims at development of mathematical model which determines the value of Overall Gas Transfer coefficient with greater accuracy than the existing model.Keywords: Theories, Dissolved oxygen, Mathematical model, Gas Transfer coefficient, Accuracy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15597102 Modeling the Impact of Controls on Information System Risks
Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya
Abstract:
Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.Keywords: Information System, Risk, Control, FMECA.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15777101 Methodology: A Review in Modelling and Predictability of Embankment in Soft Ground
Authors: Bhim Kumar Dahal
Abstract:
Transportation network development in the developing country is in rapid pace. The majority of the network belongs to railway and expressway which passes through diverse topography, landform and geological conditions despite the avoidance principle during route selection. Construction of such networks demand many low to high embankment which required improvement in the foundation soil. This paper is mainly focused on the various advanced ground improvement techniques used to improve the soft soil, modelling approach and its predictability for embankments construction. The ground improvement techniques can be broadly classified in to three groups i.e. densification group, drainage and consolidation group and reinforcement group which are discussed with some case studies. Various methods were used in modelling of the embankments from simple 1-dimensional to complex 3-dimensional model using variety of constitutive models. However, the reliability of the predictions is not found systematically improved with the level of sophistication. And sometimes the predictions are deviated more than 60% to the monitored value besides using same level of erudition. This deviation is found mainly due to the selection of constitutive model, assumptions made during different stages, deviation in the selection of model parameters and simplification during physical modelling of the ground condition. This deviation can be reduced by using optimization process, optimization tools and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters which will guide to select the appropriate model parameters.
Keywords: Embankment, ground improvement, modelling, model prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9527100 Dynamical Network Transmission of H1N1 Virus at the Local Level Transmission Model
Authors: P. Pongsumpun
Abstract:
A new strain of Type A influenza virus can cause the transmission of H1N1 virus. This virus can spread between the people by coughing and sneezing. Because the people are always movement, so this virus can be easily spread. In this study, we construct the dynamical network model of H1N1 virus by separating the human into five groups; susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered groups. The movement of people between houses (local level) is considered. The behaviors of solutions to our dynamical model are shown for the different parameters.Keywords: Dynamical network, H1N1virus, local level, simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15477099 Modelling of Heating and Evaporation of Biodiesel Fuel Droplets
Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal
Abstract:
This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.
Keywords: Heat/Mass Transfer, Biodiesel, Multi-component Fuel, Droplet, Evaporation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27987098 PEIBM- Perceiving Emotions using an Intelligent Behavioral Model
Authors: Maryam Humayun, Zafar I. Malik, Shaukat Ali
Abstract:
Computer animation is a widely adopted technique used to specify the movement of various objects on screen. The key issue of this technique is the specification of motion. Motion Control Methods are such methods which are used to specify the actions of objects. This paper discusses the various types of motion control methods with special focus on behavioral animation. A behavioral model is also proposed which takes into account the emotions and perceptions of an actor which in turn generate its behavior. This model makes use of an expert system to generate tasks for the actors which specify the actions to be performed in the virtual environment.
Keywords: Behavioral animation, emotion, expert system, perception.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1394