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Modelling Extreme Temperature in Malaysia Using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Authors: Mohd Bakri Adam, Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam


Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: return level, Extreme value, Extreme temperature

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

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