Search results for: Agile Method
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8132

Search results for: Agile Method

7502 Black Box Model and Evolutionary Fuzzy Control Methods of Coupled-Tank System

Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami

Abstract:

In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.

Keywords: Function tuner method, fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm.

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7501 An Iterative Method for the Least-squares Symmetric Solution of AXB+CYD=F and its Application

Authors: Minghui Wang

Abstract:

Based on the classical algorithm LSQR for solving (unconstrained) LS problem, an iterative method is proposed for the least-squares like-minimum-norm symmetric solution of AXB+CYD=E. As the application of this algorithm, an iterative method for the least-squares like-minimum-norm biymmetric solution of AXB=E is also obtained. Numerical results are reported that show the efficiency of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Matrix equation, bisymmetric matrix, least squares problem, like-minimum norm, iterative algorithm.

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7500 The Analysis of Own Signals of PM Electrical Machines – Example of Eccentricity

Authors: M. Barański

Abstract:

This article presents a vibration diagnostic method designed for Permanent Magnets (PM) electrical machines–traction motors and generators. Those machines are commonly used in traction drives of electrical vehicles and small wind or water systems. The described method is very innovative and unique. Specific structural properties of machines excited by permanent magnets are used in this method - electromotive force (EMF) generated due to vibrations. There was analyzed number of publications, which describe vibration diagnostic methods, and tests of electrical machines and there was no method found to determine the technical condition of such machine basing on their own signals. This work presents field-circuit model, results of static tests, results of calculations and simulations.

Keywords: Electrical vehicle, permanent magnet, traction drive, vibrations, electrical machine, eccentricity, diagnostics, data acquisition, data analysis.

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7499 A System Functions Set-Up through Near Field Communication of a Smartphone

Authors: Jaemyoung Lee

Abstract:

We present a method to set up system functions through a near filed communication (NFC) of a smartphone. The short communication distance of the NFC which is usually less than 4 cm could prevent any interferences from other devices and establish a secure communication channel between a system and the smartphone. The proposed set-up method for system function values is demonstrated for a blacbox system in a car. In demonstration, system functions of a blackbox which is manipulated through NFC of a smartphone are controls of image quality, sound level, shock sensing level to store images, etc. The proposed set-up method for system function values can be used for any devices with NFC.

Keywords: System set-up, near field communication, smartphone, Android.

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7498 Robust Stabilization of Rotational Motion of Underwater Robots against Parameter Uncertainties

Authors: Riku Hayashida, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

This paper provides a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. Underwater robots are expected to be used for various work assignments. The large variety of applications of underwater robots motivates researchers to develop control systems and technologies for underwater robots. Several control methods have been proposed so far for the stabilization of nominal system model of underwater robots with no parameter uncertainty. Parameter uncertainties are considered to be obstacles in implementation of the such nominal control methods for underwater robots. The objective of this study is to establish a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: Robust control, stabilization method, underwater robot, parameter uncertainty.

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7497 The Use of KREISIG Computer Simulation Program to Optimize Signalized Roundabout

Authors: Ahmad Munawar

Abstract:

KREISIG is a computer simulation program, firstly developed by Munawar (1994) in Germany to optimize signalized roundabout. The traffic movement is based on the car following theory. Turbine method has been implemented for signal setting. The program has then been further developed in Indonesia to meet the traffic characteristics in Indonesia by adjusting the sensitivity of the drivers. Trial and error method has been implemented to adjust the saturation flow. The saturation flow output has also been compared to the calculation method according to 1997 Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual. It has then been implemented to optimize signalized roundabout at Kleringan roundabout in Malioboro area, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. It is found that this method can optimize the signal setting of this roundabout. Therefore, it is recommended to use this program to optimize signalized roundabout.

Keywords: KREISIG, signalized roundabout, traffic.

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7496 Seismic Behavior and Capacity/Demand Analyses of a Simply-Supported Multi-Span Precast Bridge

Authors: Nasim Shatarat, Adel Assaf

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of an analytical study on the seismic response of a Multi-Span-Simply-Supported precast bridge in Washington State. The bridge was built in the early 1960's along Interstate 5 and was widened the first time in 1979 and the second time in 2001. The primary objective of this research project is to determine the seismic vulnerability of the bridge in order to develop the required retrofit measure. The seismic vulnerability of the bridge is evaluated using two seismic evaluation methods presented in the FHWA Seismic Retrofitting Manual for Highway Bridges, Method C and Method D2. The results of the seismic analyses demonstrate that Method C and Method D2 vary markedly in terms of the information they provide to the bridge designer regarding the vulnerability of the bridge columns.

Keywords: Bridges, Capacity, Demand, Seismic, Static pushover, Retrofit.

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7495 Design of the Propelling Nozzles for the Launchers and Satellites

Authors: R. Haoui

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to determine the supersonic nozzle profiles used in propulsion, for the launchers or embarked with the satellites. This design has as a role firstly, to give a important propulsion, i.e. with uniform and parallel flow at exit, secondly to find a short length profiles without modification of the flow in the nozzle. The first elaborate program is used to determine the profile of divergent by using the characteristics method for an axisymmetric flow. The second program is conceived by using the finite volume method to determine and test the profile found connected to a convergent.

Keywords: Characteristic method, nozzles, supersonic flow, propellers.

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7494 Electromagnetic Wave Propagation Equations in 2D by Finite Difference Method

Authors: N. Fusun Oyman Serteller

Abstract:

In this paper, the techniques to solve time dependent electromagnetic wave propagation equations based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM) are proposed by comparing the results with Finite Element Method (FEM) in 2D while discussing some special simulation examples.  Here, 2D dynamical wave equations for lossy media, even with a constant source, are discussed for establishing symbolic manipulation of wave propagation problems. The main objective of this contribution is to introduce a comparative study of two suitable numerical methods and to show that both methods can be applied effectively and efficiently to all types of wave propagation problems, both linear and nonlinear cases, by using symbolic computation. However, the results show that the FDM is more appropriate for solving the nonlinear cases in the symbolic solution. Furthermore, some specific complex domain examples of the comparison of electromagnetic waves equations are considered. Calculations are performed through Mathematica software by making some useful contribution to the programme and leveraging symbolic evaluations of FEM and FDM.

Keywords: Finite difference method, finite element method, linear-nonlinear PDEs, symbolic computation, wave propagation equations.

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7493 Model Predictive Control with Unscented Kalman Filter for Nonlinear Implicit Systems

Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

A class of implicit systems is known as a more generalized class of systems than a class of explicit systems. To establish a control method for such a generalized class of systems, we adopt model predictive control method which is a kind of optimal feedback control with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. However, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In other words, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems with limited measurable states. In fact, it is usual that the state variables of systems are measured through outputs, hence, only limited parts of them can be used directly. It is also usual that output signals are disturbed by process and sensor noises. Hence, it is important to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear implicit systems with taking the process noise and sensor noise into consideration. To this purpose, we apply the model predictive control method and unscented Kalman filter for solving the optimization and estimation problems of nonlinear implicit systems, respectively. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control with unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear implicit systems.

Keywords: Model predictive control, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, implicit systems.

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7492 Target Signal Detection Using MUSIC Spectrum in Noise Environment

Authors: Sangjun Park, Sangbae Jeong, Moonsung Han, Minsoo hahn

Abstract:

In this paper, a target signal detection method using multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm is proposed. The MUSIC algorithm is a subspace-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method. The algorithm detects the DOAs of multiple sources using the inverse of the eigenvalue-weighted eigen spectra. To apply the algorithm to target signal detection for GSC-based beamforming, we utilize its spectral response for the target DOA in noisy conditions. For evaluation of the algorithm, the performance of the proposed target signal detection method is compared with that of the normalized cross-correlation (NCC), the fixed beamforming, and the power ratio method. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the conventional ones in receiver operating characteristics(ROC) curves.

Keywords: Beamforming, direction of arrival, multiple signal classification, target signal detection.

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7491 A Novel Method to Evaluate Line Loadability for Distribution Systems with Realistic Loads

Authors: K. Nagaraju, S. Sivanagaraju, T. Ramana, V. Ganesh

Abstract:

This paper presents a simple method for estimation of additional load as a factor of the existing load that may be drawn before reaching the point of line maximum loadability of radial distribution system (RDS) with different realistic load models at different substation voltages. The proposed method involves a simple line loadability index (LLI) that gives a measure of the proximity of the present state of a line in the distribution system. The LLI can use to assess voltage instability and the line loading margin. The proposed method also compares with the existing method of maximum loadability index [10]. The simulation results show that the LLI can identify not only the weakest line/branch causing system instability but also the system voltage collapse point when it is near one. This feature enables us to set an index threshold to monitor and predict system stability on-line so that a proper action can be taken to prevent the system from collapse. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on two bus and 69 bus RDS.

Keywords: line loadability index, line loading margin, maximum line loadability, system stability, radial distribution system

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7490 Determination of Recrystallization Temperature of Varying Degrees Formed Aluminium, by DMTA Technique

Authors: Zsolt Dugár, Péter Barkóczy, Gábor Béres, Dávid Kis, Attila Bata, Tamás Dugár, Zoltán Weltsch

Abstract:

This study is about the structural transformations of aluminium examining with the Dynamic Mechanical Thermal Analyzer (DMTA). It is a faster and simpler measuring method to make consequence about the metal’s structural transformations. The device measures the changing of the mechanical characteristics depending on the heating rate, and concludes certain transformations. This measuring method fast and shows clean-cut results comparing the conventional ways. Applying polymer measuring devices for metal investigations is not widespread method. One of the adaptable ways is shown in this study. The article compares the results of the small specimen test and the DMTA method, considering the temperature and the forming dependence of recrystallization temperature.

Keywords: DMTA, recrystallization, cold forming, rotation.

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7489 Probabilistic Center Voting Method for Subsequent Object Tracking and Segmentation

Authors: Suryanto, Hyo-Kak Kim, Sang-Hee Park, Dae-Hwan Kim, Sung-Jea Ko

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm for object tracking in video sequence. In order to represent the object to be tracked, we propose a spatial color histogram model which encodes both the color distribution and spatial information. The object tracking from frame to frame is accomplished via center voting and back projection method. The center voting method has every pixel in the new frame to cast a vote on whereabouts the object center is. The back projection method segments the object from the background. The segmented foreground provides information on object size and orientation, omitting the need to estimate them separately. We do not put any assumption on camera motion; the proposed algorithm works equally well for object tracking in both static and moving camera videos.

Keywords: center voting, back projection, object tracking, size adaptation, non-stationary camera tracking.

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7488 The Boundary Element Method in Excel for Teaching Vector Calculus and Simulation

Authors: Stephen Kirkup

Abstract:

This paper discusses the implementation of the boundary element method (BEM) on an Excel spreadsheet and how it can be used in teaching vector calculus and simulation. There are two separate spreadheets, within which Laplace equation is solved by the BEM in two dimensions (LIBEM2) and axisymmetric three dimensions (LBEMA). The main algorithms are implemented in the associated programming language within Excel, Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The BEM only requires a boundary mesh and hence it is a relatively accessible method. The BEM in the open spreadsheet environment is demonstrated as being useful as an aid to teaching and learning. The application of the BEM implemented on a spreadsheet for educational purposes in introductory vector calculus and simulation is explored. The development of assignment work is discussed, and sample results from student work are given. The spreadsheets were found to be useful tools in developing the students’ understanding of vector calculus and in simulating heat conduction.

Keywords: Boundary element method, laplace equation, vector calculus, simulation, education.

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7487 A New Approach to Steganography using Sinc-Convolution Method

Authors: Ahmad R. Naghsh-Nilchi, Latifeh Pourmohammadbagher

Abstract:

Both image steganography and image encryption have advantages and disadvantages. Steganograhy allows us to hide a desired image containing confidential information in a covered or host image while image encryption is decomposing the desired image to a non-readable, non-comprehended manner. The encryption methods are usually much more robust than the steganographic ones. However, they have a high visibility and would provoke the attackers easily since it usually is obvious from an encrypted image that something is hidden! The combination of steganography and encryption will cover both of their weaknesses and therefore, it increases the security. In this paper an image encryption method based on sinc-convolution along with using an encryption key of 128 bit length is introduced. Then, the encrypted image is covered by a host image using a modified version of JSteg steganography algorithm. This method could be applied to almost all image formats including TIF, BMP, GIF and JPEG. The experiment results show that our method is able to hide a desired image with high security and low visibility.

Keywords: Sinc Approximation, Image Encryption, Sincconvolution, Image Steganography, JSTEG.

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7486 PM Electrical Machines Diagnostic - Methods Selected

Authors: M. Barański

Abstract:

This paper presents a several diagnostic methods designed to electrical machinesespecially for permanent magnets (PM) machines. Those machines are commonly used in small wind and water systems and vehicles drives.Thosemethodsare preferred by the author in periodic diagnostic of electrical machines. The special attentionshould be paid to diagnostic method of turn-to-turn insulation and vibrations. Both of those methodswere createdinInstitute of Electrical Drives and MachinesKomel. The vibration diagnostic method is the main thesis of author’s doctoral dissertation. This is method of determination the technical condition of PM electrical machine basing on its own signals is the subject of patent application No P.405669. Specific structural properties of machines excited by permanent magnets are used in this method - electromotive force (EMF) generated due to vibrations. There was analysed number of publications which describe vibration diagnostic methods and tests of electrical machines with permanent magnets and there was no method found to determine the technical condition of such machine basing on their own signals.

Keywords: Electrical vehicle, generator, main insulation, permanent magnet, thermography, turn-to- traction drive, turn insulation, vibrations.

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7485 Forward Kinematics Analysis of a 3-PRS Parallel Manipulator

Authors: Ghasem Abbasnejad, Soheil Zarkandi, Misagh Imani

Abstract:

In this article the homotopy continuation method (HCM) to solve the forward kinematic problem of the 3-PRS parallel manipulator is used. Since there are many difficulties in solving the system of nonlinear equations in kinematics of manipulators, the numerical solutions like Newton-Raphson are inevitably used. When dealing with any numerical solution, there are two troublesome problems. One is that good initial guesses are not easy to detect and another is related to whether the used method will converge to useful solutions. Results of this paper reveal that the homotopy continuation method can alleviate the drawbacks of traditional numerical techniques.

Keywords: Forward kinematics, Homotopy continuationmethod, Parallel manipulators, Rotation matrix

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7484 Statistical Analysis of First Order Plus Dead-time System using Operational Matrix

Authors: Pham Luu Trung Duong, Moonyong Lee

Abstract:

To increase precision and reliability of automatic control systems, we have to take into account of random factors affecting the control system. Thus, operational matrix technique is used for statistical analysis of first order plus time delay system with uniform random parameter. Examples with deterministic and stochastic disturbance are considered to demonstrate the validity of the method. Comparison with Monte Carlo method is made to show the computational effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: First order plus dead-time, Operational matrix, Statistical analysis, Walsh function.

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7483 Contrast Enhancement in Digital Images Using an Adaptive Unsharp Masking Method

Authors: Z. Mortezaie, H. Hassanpour, S. Asadi Amiri

Abstract:

Captured images may suffer from Gaussian blur due to poor lens focus or camera motion. Unsharp masking is a simple and effective technique to boost the image contrast and to improve digital images suffering from Gaussian blur. The technique is based on sharpening object edges by appending the scaled high-frequency components of the image to the original. The quality of the enhanced image is highly dependent on the characteristics of both the high-frequency components and the scaling/gain factor. Since the quality of an image may not be the same throughout, we propose an adaptive unsharp masking method in this paper. In this method, the gain factor is computed, considering the gradient variations, for individual pixels of the image. Subjective and objective image quality assessments are used to compare the performance of the proposed method both with the classic and the recently developed unsharp masking methods. The experimental results show that the proposed method has a better performance in comparison to the other existing methods.

Keywords: Unsharp masking, blur image, sub-region gradient, image enhancement.

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7482 Analyzing of Temperature-Dependent Thermal Conductivity Effect in the Numerical Modeling of Fin-Tube Radiators: Introduction of a New Method

Authors: Farzad Bazdidi-Tehrani, Mohammad Hadi Kamrava

Abstract:

In all industries which are related to heat, suitable thermal ranges are defined for each device to operate well. Consideration of these limits requires a thermal control unit beside the main system. The Satellite Thermal Control Unit exploits from different methods and facilities individually or mixed. For enhancing heat transfer between primary surface and the environment, utilization of radiating extended surfaces are common. Especially for large temperature differences; variable thermal conductivity has a strong effect on performance of such a surface .In most literatures, thermo-physical properties, such as thermal conductivity, are assumed as constant. However, in some recent researches the variation of these parameters is considered. This may be helpful for the evaluation of fin-s temperature distribution in relatively large temperature differences. A new method is introduced to evaluate temperature-dependent thermal conductivity values. The finite volume method is employed to simulate numerically the temperature distribution in a space radiating fin. The present modeling is carried out for Aluminum as fin material and compared with previous method. The present results are also compared with those of two other analytical methods and good agreement is shown.

Keywords: Variable thermal conductivity, New method, Finitevolume method, Combined heat transfer, Extended Surface

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7481 A Novel Methodology for Synthesis of Fault Trees from MATLAB-Simulink Model

Authors: F. Tajarrod, G. Latif-Shabgahi

Abstract:

Fault tree analysis is a well-known method for reliability and safety assessment of engineering systems. In the last 3 decades, a number of methods have been introduced, in the literature, for automatic construction of fault trees. The main difference between these methods is the starting model from which the tree is constructed. This paper presents a new methodology for the construction of static and dynamic fault trees from a system Simulink model. The method is introduced and explained in detail, and its correctness and completeness is experimentally validated by using an example, taken from literature. Advantages of the method are also mentioned.

Keywords: Fault tree, Simulink, Standby Sparing and Redundancy

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7480 Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

Authors: O. Badagadze, G. Sirbiladze, I. Khutsishvili

Abstract:

The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

Keywords: Expert valuations, expertons, investment project risks, positive and negative discriminations, possibility distribution.

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7479 Hybrid Methods for Optimisation of Weights in Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Decision for Fire Risk and Hazard

Authors: I. Yakubu, D. Mireku-Gyimah, D. Asafo-Adjei

Abstract:

The challenge for everyone involved in preserving the ecosystem is to find creative ways to protect and restore the remaining ecosystems while accommodating and enhancing the country social and economic well-being. Frequent fires of anthropogenic origin have been affecting the ecosystems in many countries adversely. Hence adopting ways of decision making such as Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) is appropriate since it will enhance the evaluation and analysis of fire risk and hazard of the ecosystem. In this paper, fire risk and hazard data from the West Gonja area of Ghana were used in some of the methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process, Compromise Programming, and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) for MCDM evaluation and analysis to determine the optimal weight method for fire risk and hazard. Ranking of the land cover types was carried out using; Fire Hazard, Fire Fighting Capacity and Response Risk Criteria. Pairwise comparison under Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of the various criteria. Weights for sub-criteria were also obtained by the pairwise comparison method. The results were optimised using GRA and Compromise Programming (CP). The results from each method, hybrid GRA and CP, were compared and it was established that all methods were satisfactory in terms of optimisation of weight. The most optimal method for spatial multicriteria evaluation was the hybrid GRA method. Thus, a hybrid AHP and GRA method is more effective method for ranking alternatives in MCDM than the hybrid AHP and CP method.

Keywords: Compromise programming, grey relational analysis, spatial multi-criteria, weight optimisation.

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7478 Fuzzy Metric Approach for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting based on Frequency Density Based Partitioning

Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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7477 Using Hermite Function for Solving Thomas-Fermi Equation

Authors: F. Bayatbabolghani, K. Parand

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose Hermite collocation method for solving Thomas-Fermi equation that is nonlinear ordinary differential equation on semi-infinite interval. This method reduces the solution of this problem to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. We also present the comparison of this work with solution of other methods that shows the present solution is more accurate and faster convergence in this problem.

Keywords: Collocation method, Hermite function, Semi-infinite, Thomas-Fermi equation.

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7476 Development of Electric Performance Testing System for Ceramic Chips using PZT Actuator

Authors: Jin-Ho Bae, Yong-Tae Kim, S K Deb Nath, Seo-Ik Kang, Sung-Gaun Kim

Abstract:

Reno-pin contact test is a method that is controlled by DC motor used to characterize electronic chips. This method is used in electronic and telecommunication devices. A new electric performance testing system is developed in which the testing method is controlled by using Piezoelectric Transducer (PZT) instead of DC motor which reduces vibration and noise. The vertical displacement of the Reno-pin is very short in the Reno-pin contact testing system. Now using a flexible guide in the new Reno-pin contact system, the vertical movement of the Reno-pin is increased many times of the existing Reno-pin contact testing method using DC motor. Using the present electric performance testing system with a flexible hinge and PZT instead of DC motor, manufacturing of electronic chips are able to characterize chips with low cost and high speed.

Keywords: PZT Actuator, Chip test, Mechanical amplifier

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7475 Analysis of Conduction-Radiation Heat Transfer in a Planar Medium: Application of the Lattice Boltzmann Method

Authors: Ahmed Mahmoudi, Imen Mejri, Mohamed A. Abbassi, Ahmed Omri

Abstract:

In this paper, the 1-D conduction-radiation problem is solved by the lattice Boltzmann method. The effects of various parameters such as the scattering albedo, the conduction–radiation parameter and the wall emissivity are studied. In order to check on the accuracy of the numerical technique employed for the solution of the considered problem, the present numerical code was validated with the published study. The found results are in good agreement with those published

Keywords: Conduction, lattice Boltzmann method, planar medium, radiation.

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7474 A Green Method for Selective Spectrophotometric Determination of Hafnium(IV) with Aqueous Extract of Ficus carica Tree Leaves

Authors: A. Boveiri Monji, H. Yousefnia, M. Haji Hosseini, S. Zolghadri

Abstract:

A clean spectrophotometric method for the determination of hafnium by using a green reagent, acidic extract of Ficus carica tree leaves is developed. In 6-M hydrochloric acid, hafnium reacts with this reagent to form a yellow product. The formed product shows maximum absorbance at 421 nm with a molar absorptivity value of 0.28 × 104 l mol⁻¹ cm⁻¹, and the method was linear in the 2-11 µg ml⁻¹ concentration range. The detection limit value was found to be 0.312 µg ml⁻¹. Except zirconium and iron, the selectivity was good, and most of the ions did not show any significant spectral interference at concentrations up to several hundred times. The proposed method was green, simple, low cost, and selective.

Keywords: Spectrophotometric determination, Ficus carica tree leaves, synthetic reagents, hafnium.

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7473 Multivariate High Order Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting for Car Road Accidents

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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