Search results for: Multi Linear Regression
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3841

Search results for: Multi Linear Regression

3271 Effect of Modification and Expansion on Emergence of Cooperation in Demographic Multi-Level Donor-Recipient Game

Authors: Tsuneyuki Namekata, Yoko Namekata

Abstract:

It is known that the mean investment evolves from a very low initial value to some high level in the Continuous Prisoner's Dilemma. We examine how the cooperation level evolves from a low initial level to a high level in our Demographic Multi-level Donor-Recipient situation. In the Multi-level Donor-Recipient game, one player is selected as a Donor and the other as a Recipient randomly. The Donor has multiple cooperative moves and one defective move. A cooperative move means the Donor pays some cost for the Recipient to receive some benefit. The more cooperative move the Donor takes, the higher cost the Donor pays and the higher benefit the Recipient receives. The defective move has no effect on them. Two consecutive Multi-level Donor-Recipient games, one as a Donor and the other as a Recipient, can be viewed as a discrete version of the Continuous Prisoner's Dilemma. In the Demographic Multi-level Donor-Recipient game, players are initially distributed spatially. In each period, players play multiple Multi-level Donor-Recipient games against other players. He leaves offspring if possible and dies because of negative accumulated payoff of him or his lifespan. Cooperative moves are necessary for the survival of the whole population. There is only a low level of cooperative move besides the defective move initially available in strategies of players. A player may modify and expand his strategy by his recent experiences or practices. We distinguish several types of a player about modification and expansion. We show, by Agent-Based Simulation, that introducing only the modification increases the emergence rate of cooperation and introducing both the modification and the expansion further increases it and a high level of cooperation does emerge in our Demographic Multi-level Donor-Recipient Game.

Keywords: Agent-based simulation, donor-recipient game, emergence of cooperation, spatial structure, TFT, TF2T.

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3270 Decision Support System for Suppliers

Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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3269 The Leaves of a Tree

Authors: Zhu Jiaming, Yu Mengna

Abstract:

In this article, models based on quantitative analysis, physical geometry and regression analysis are established, by using analytic hierarchy process analysis, fuzzy cluster analysis, fuzzy photographic and data fitting. The reasons of various leaf shapes among different species and the differences between the leaf shapes on same tree have been solved by using software, such as Eviews, VB and Matlab. We also successfully estimate the leaf mass of a tree and the correlation with the tree profile.

Keywords: Leaf shape; Mass; Fuzzy cluster; Regression analysis; Eviews; Matlab

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3268 Linear Prediction System in Measuring Glucose Level in Blood

Authors: Intan Maisarah Abd Rahim, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali

Abstract:

Diabetes is a medical condition that can lead to various diseases such as stroke, heart disease, blindness and obesity. In clinical practice, the concern of the diabetic patients towards the blood glucose examination is rather alarming as some of the individual describing it as something painful with pinprick and pinch. As for some patient with high level of glucose level, pricking the fingers multiple times a day with the conventional glucose meter for close monitoring can be tiresome, time consuming and painful. With these concerns, several non-invasive techniques were used by researchers in measuring the glucose level in blood, including ultrasonic sensor implementation, multisensory systems, absorbance of transmittance, bio-impedance, voltage intensity, and thermography. This paper is discussing the application of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy as a non-invasive method in measuring the glucose level and the implementation of the linear system identification model in predicting the output data for the NIR measurement. In this study, the wavelengths considered are at the 1450 nm and 1950 nm. Both of these wavelengths showed the most reliable information on the glucose presence in blood. Then, the linear Autoregressive Moving Average Exogenous model (ARMAX) model with both un-regularized and regularized methods was implemented in predicting the output result for the NIR measurement in order to investigate the practicality of the linear system in this study. However, the result showed only 50.11% accuracy obtained from the system which is far from the satisfying results that should be obtained.

Keywords: Diabetes, glucose level, linear, near-infrared (NIR), non-invasive, prediction system.

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3267 Geometrically Non-Linear Axisymmetric Free Vibration Analysis of Functionally Graded Annular Plates

Authors: Boutahar Lhoucine, El Bikri Khalid, Benamar Rhali

Abstract:

In this paper, the non-linear free axisymmetric vibration of a thin annular plate made of functionally graded material (FGM) has been studied by using the energy method and a multimode approach. FGM properties vary continuously as well as non-homogeneity through the thickness direction of the plate. The theoretical model is based on the classical plate theory and the Von Kármán geometrical non-linearity assumptions. An approximation has been adopted in the present work consisting of neglecting the in-plane deformation in the formulation. Hamilton’s principle is used to derive the governing equation of motion. The problem is solved by a numerical iterative procedure in order to obtain more accurate results for vibration amplitudes up to 1.5 times the plate thickness. The numerical results are given for the first axisymmetric non-linear mode shape for a wide range of vibration amplitudes and they are presented either in tabular form or in graphical form to show the effect that the vibration amplitude and the variation in material properties have significant effects on the frequencies and the bending stresses in large amplitude vibration of the functionally graded annular plate.

Keywords: Non-linear vibrations, Annular plates, Large amplitudes, FGM.

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3266 Magnetohydrodynamic Maxwell Nanofluids Flow over a Stretching Surface through a Porous Medium: Effects of Non-Linear Thermal Radiation, Convective Boundary Conditions and Heat Generation/Absorption

Authors: Sameh E. Ahmed, Ramadan A. Mohamed, Abd Elraheem M. Aly, Mahmoud S. Soliman

Abstract:

In this paper, an enhancement of the heat transfer using non-Newtonian nanofluids by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mixed convection along stretching sheets embedded in an isotropic porous medium is investigated. Case of the Maxwell nanofluids is studied using the two phase mathematical model of nanofluids and the Darcy model is applied for the porous medium. Important effects are taken into account, namely, non-linear thermal radiation, convective boundary conditions, electromagnetic force and presence of the heat source/sink. Suitable similarity transformations are used to convert the governing equations to a system of ordinary differential equations then it is solved numerically using a fourth order Runge-Kutta method with shooting technique. The main results of the study revealed that the velocity profiles are decreasing functions of the Darcy number, the Deborah number and the magnetic field parameter. Also, the increase in the non-linear radiation parameters causes an enhancement in the local Nusselt number.

Keywords: MHD, nanofluids, stretching surface, non-linear thermal radiation, convective condition.

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3265 A Power Reduction Technique for Built-In-Self Testing Using Modified Linear Feedback Shift Register

Authors: Mayank Shakya, Soundra Pandian. K. K

Abstract:

A linear feedback shift register (LFSR) is proposed which targets to reduce the power consumption from within. It reduces the power consumption during testing of a Circuit Under Test (CUT) at two stages. At first stage, Control Logic (CL) makes the clocks of the switching units of the register inactive for a time period when output from them is going to be same as previous one and thus reducing unnecessary switching of the flip-flops. And at second stage, the LFSR reorders the test vectors by interchanging the bit with its next and closest neighbor bit. It keeps fault coverage capacity of the vectors unchanged but reduces the Total Hamming Distance (THD) so that there is reduction in power while shifting operation.

Keywords: Linear Feedback Shift Register, Total Hamming Distance, Fault Coverage, Control Logic

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3264 BIM Application and Construction Schedule Simulation for the Horizontal Work Area

Authors: Hyeon-Seong Kim, Sang-Mi Park, Seul-Gi Kim, Seon-Ju Han, Leen-Seok Kang

Abstract:

The use of BIM, including 4D CAD system, in a construction project is gradually increasing. Since the building construction works repeatedly in the vertical space, it is relatively easy to confirm the interference effect when applying the BIM, but the interference effect for the civil engineering project is relatively small because the civil works perform non-repetitive processes in the horizontal space. For this reason, it is desirable to apply BIM to the construction phase when applying BIM to the civil engineering project, and the most active BIM tool applied to the construction phase is the 4D CAD function for the schedule management. This paper proposes the application procedure of BIM by the construction phase of civil engineering project and a linear 4D CAD construction methodology suitable for the civil engineering project in which linear work is performed.

Keywords: BIM, 4D CAD, Horizontal work area, Linear simulation, VR.

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3263 Quasi Multi-Pulse Back-to-Back Static Synchronous Compensator Employing Line Frequency Switching 2-Level GTO Inverters

Authors: A.M. Vural, K.C. Bayindir

Abstract:

Back-to-back static synchronous compensator (BtBSTATCOM) consists of two back-to-back voltage-source converters (VSC) with a common DC link in a substation. This configuration extends the capabilities of conventional STATCOM that bidirectional active power transfer from one bus to another is possible. In this paper, VSCs are designed in quasi multi-pulse form in which GTOs are triggered only once per cycle in PSCAD/EMTDC. The design details of VSCs as well as gate switching circuits and controllers are fully represented. Regulation modes of BtBSTATCOM are verified and tested on a multi-machine power system through different simulation cases. The results presented in the form of typical time responses show that practical PI controllers are almost robust and stable in case of start-up, set-point change, and line faults.

Keywords: Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS), Backto-Back Static Synchronous Compensator (BtB-STATCOM), quasi multi-pulse voltage source converter, active power transfer; voltage control.

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3262 Computational Simulations on Stability of Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-time Stochastic Systems

Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and a moving terminal time. This paper examines the stability of model predictive control for linear discrete-time systems with additive stochastic disturbances. A sufficient condition for the stability of the closed-loop system with model predictive control is derived by means of a linear matrix inequality. The objective of this paper is to show the results of computational simulations in order to verify the effectiveness of the obtained stability condition.

Keywords: Computational simulations, optimal control, predictive control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems.

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3261 Application of Multi-objective Optimization Packages in Design of an Evaporator Coil

Authors: A.Mosavi

Abstract:

A novel methodology has been used to design an evaporator coil of a refrigerant. The methodology used is through a complete Computer Aided Design /Computer Aided Engineering approach, by means of a Computational Fluid Dynamic/Finite Element Analysis model which is executed many times for the thermal-fluid exploration of several designs' configuration by an commercial optimizer. Hence the design is carried out automatically by parallel computations, with an optimization package taking the decisions rather than the design engineer. The engineer instead takes decision regarding the physical settings and initializing of the computational models to employ, the number and the extension of the geometrical parameters of the coil fins and the optimization tools to be employed. The final design of the coil geometry found to be better than the initial design.

Keywords: Multi-objective shape optimization, Heat Transfer, multi-physics structures, modeFRONTIER

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3260 Multi-Objective Optimization of an Aerodynamic Feeding System Using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Jan Busch, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

Considering the challenges of short product life cycles and growing variant diversity, cost minimization and manufacturing flexibility increasingly gain importance to maintain a competitive edge in today’s global and dynamic markets. In this context, an aerodynamic part feeding system for high-speed industrial assembly applications has been developed at the Institute of Production Systems and Logistics (IFA), Leibniz Universitaet Hannover. The aerodynamic part feeding system outperforms conventional systems with respect to its process safety, reliability, and operating speed. In this paper, a multi-objective optimisation of the aerodynamic feeding system regarding the orientation rate, the feeding velocity, and the required nozzle pressure is presented.

Keywords: Aerodynamic feeding system, genetic algorithm, multi-objective optimization.

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3259 Evaluation of Features Extraction Algorithms for a Real-Time Isolated Word Recognition System

Authors: Tomyslav Sledevič, Artūras Serackis, Gintautas Tamulevičius, Dalius Navakauskas

Abstract:

Paper presents an comparative evaluation of features extraction algorithm for a real-time isolated word recognition system based on FPGA. The Mel-frequency cepstral, linear frequency cepstral, linear predictive and their cepstral coefficients were implemented in hardware/software design. The proposed system was investigated in speaker dependent mode for 100 different Lithuanian words. The robustness of features extraction algorithms was tested recognizing the speech records at different signal to noise rates. The experiments on clean records show highest accuracy for Mel-frequency cepstral and linear frequency cepstral coefficients. For records with 15 dB signal to noise rate the linear predictive cepstral coefficients gives best result. The hard and soft part of the system is clocked on 50 MHz and 100 MHz accordingly. For the classification purpose the pipelined dynamic time warping core was implemented. The proposed word recognition system satisfy the real-time requirements and is suitable for applications in embedded systems.

Keywords: Isolated word recognition, features extraction, MFCC, LFCC, LPCC, LPC, FPGA, DTW.

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3258 Estimating Bridge Deterioration for Small Data Sets Using Regression and Markov Models

Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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3257 Applying the Regression Technique for Prediction of the Acute Heart Attack

Authors: Paria Soleimani, Arezoo Neshati

Abstract:

Myocardial infarction is one of the leading causes of death in the world. Some of these deaths occur even before the patient reaches the hospital. Myocardial infarction occurs as a result of impaired blood supply. Because the most of these deaths are due to coronary artery disease, hence the awareness of the warning signs of a heart attack is essential. Some heart attacks are sudden and intense, but most of them start slowly, with mild pain or discomfort, then early detection and successful treatment of these symptoms is vital to save them. Therefore, importance and usefulness of a system designing to assist physicians in early diagnosis of the acute heart attacks is obvious. The main purpose of this study would be to enable patients to become better informed about their condition and to encourage them to seek professional care at an earlier stage in the appropriate situations. For this purpose, the data were collected on 711 heart patients in Iran hospitals. 28 attributes of clinical factors can be reported by patients; were studied. Three logistic regression models were made on the basis of the 28 features to predict the risk of heart attacks. The best logistic regression model in terms of performance had a C-index of 0.955 and with an accuracy of 94.9%. The variables, severe chest pain, back pain, cold sweats, shortness of breath, nausea and vomiting, were selected as the main features.

Keywords: Coronary heart disease, acute heart attacks, prediction, logistic regression.

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3256 Combining Bagging and Additive Regression

Authors: Sotiris B. Kotsiantis

Abstract:

Bagging and boosting are among the most popular re-sampling ensemble methods that generate and combine a diversity of regression models using the same learning algorithm as base-learner. Boosting algorithms are considered stronger than bagging on noise-free data. However, there are strong empirical indications that bagging is much more robust than boosting in noisy settings. For this reason, in this work we built an ensemble using an averaging methodology of bagging and boosting ensembles with 10 sub-learners in each one. We performed a comparison with simple bagging and boosting ensembles with 25 sub-learners on standard benchmark datasets and the proposed ensemble gave better accuracy.

Keywords: Regressors, statistical learning.

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3255 Feature Analysis of Predictive Maintenance Models

Authors: Zhaoan Wang

Abstract:

Research in predictive maintenance modeling has improved in the recent years to predict failures and needed maintenance with high accuracy, saving cost and improving manufacturing efficiency. However, classic prediction models provide little valuable insight towards the most important features contributing to the failure. By analyzing and quantifying feature importance in predictive maintenance models, cost saving can be optimized based on business goals. First, multiple classifiers are evaluated with cross-validation to predict the multi-class of failures. Second, predictive performance with features provided by different feature selection algorithms are further analyzed. Third, features selected by different algorithms are ranked and combined based on their predictive power. Finally, linear explainer SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is applied to interpret classifier behavior and provide further insight towards the specific roles of features in both local predictions and global model behavior. The results of the experiments suggest that certain features play dominant roles in predictive models while others have significantly less impact on the overall performance. Moreover, for multi-class prediction of machine failures, the most important features vary with type of machine failures. The results may lead to improved productivity and cost saving by prioritizing sensor deployment, data collection, and data processing of more important features over less importance features.

Keywords: Automated supply chain, intelligent manufacturing, predictive maintenance machine learning, feature engineering, model interpretation.

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3254 Conduction Model Compatible for Multi-Physical Domain Dynamic Investigations: Bond Graph Approach

Authors: A. Zanj, F. He

Abstract:

In the current paper, a domain independent conduction model compatible for multi-physical system dynamic investigations is suggested. By means of a port-based approach, a classical nonlinear conduction model containing physical states is first represented. A compatible discrete configuration of the thermal domain in line with the elastic domain is then generated through the enhancement of the configuration of the conventional thermal element. The presented simulation results of a sample structure indicate that the suggested conductive model can cover a wide range of dynamic behavior of the thermal domain.

Keywords: Multi-physical domain, conduction model, port-based modeling, dynamic interaction, physical modeling.

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3253 An LMI Approach of Robust H∞ Fuzzy State-Feedback Controller Design for HIV/AIDS Infection System with Dual Drug Dosages

Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of designing robust H controllers for for HIV/AIDS infection system with dual drug dosages described by a Takagi-Sugeno (S) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we develop an H controller which guarantees the L2-gain of the mapping from the exogenous input noise to the regulated output to be less than some prescribed value for the system. A sufficient condition of the controller for this system is given in term of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). The effectiveness of the proposed controller design methodology is finally demonstrated through simulation results. It has been shown that the anti-HIV vaccines are critically important in reducing the infected cells.

Keywords: H∞ Fuzzy control; Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model; Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs); HIV/AIDS infection system

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3252 A Multi-Level GA Search with Application to the Resource-Constrained Re-Entrant Flow Shop Scheduling Problem

Authors: Danping Lin, C.K.M. Lee

Abstract:

Re-entrant scheduling is an important search problem with many constraints in the flow shop. In the literature, a number of approaches have been investigated from exact methods to meta-heuristics. This paper presents a genetic algorithm that encodes the problem as multi-level chromosomes to reflect the dependent relationship of the re-entrant possibility and resource consumption. The novel encoding way conserves the intact information of the data and fastens the convergence to the near optimal solutions. To test the effectiveness of the method, it has been applied to the resource-constrained re-entrant flow shop scheduling problem. Computational results show that the proposed GA performs better than the simulated annealing algorithm in the measure of the makespan

Keywords: Resource-constrained, re-entrant, genetic algorithm (GA), multi-level encoding

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3251 Comparison of Conventional Control and Robust Control on Double-Pipe Heat Exchanger

Authors: Hanan Rizk

Abstract:

Heat exchanger is a device used to mix liquids having different temperatures. In this case, the temperature control becomes a critical objective. This research work presents the temperature control of the double-pipe heat exchanger (multi-input multi-output (MIMO) system), which is modeled as first-order coupled hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs), using conventional and advanced control techniques, and develops appropriate robust control strategy to meet stability requirements and performance objectives. We designed the proportional–integral–derivative (PID) controller and H-infinity controller for a heat exchanger (HE) system. Frequency characteristics of sensitivity functions and open-loop and closed-loop time responses are simulated using MATLAB software and the stability of the system is analyzed using Kalman's test. The simulation results have demonstrated that the H-infinity controller is more efficient than PID in terms of robustness and performance.

Keywords: heat exchanger, multi-input multi-output system, MATLAB simulation, partial differential equations, PID controller, robust control

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3250 Daily Global Solar Radiation Modeling Using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Networks

Authors: Seyed Fazel Ziaei Asl, Ali Karami, Gholamreza Ashari, Azam Behrang, Arezoo Assareh, N.Hedayat

Abstract:

Predict daily global solar radiation (GSR) based on meteorological variables, using Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks is the main objective of this study. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, evaporation, wind speed, and soil temperature values between 2002 and 2006 for Dezful city in Iran (32° 16' N, 48° 25' E), are used in this study. The measured data between 2002 and 2005 are used to train the neural networks while the data for 214 days from 2006 are used as testing data.

Keywords: Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Networks;Global Solar Radiation (GSR), Meteorological Parameters, Prediction.

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3249 Design of a Non-linear Observer for VSI Fed Synchronous Motor

Authors: P. Ramana , K. Alice Mary, M. Surya Kalavathi, M. Phani Kumar

Abstract:

This paper discusses two observers, which are used for the estimation of parameters of PMSM. Former one, reduced order observer, which is used to estimate the inaccessible parameters of PMSM. Later one, full order observer, which is used to estimate all the parameters of PMSM even though some of the parameters are directly available for measurement, so as to meet with the insensitivity to the parameter variation. However, the state space model contains some nonlinear terms i.e. the product of different state variables. The asymptotic state observer, which approximately reconstructs the state vector for linear systems without uncertainties, was presented by Luenberger. In this work, a modified form of such an observer is used by including a non-linear term involving the speed. So, both the observers are designed in the framework of nonlinear control; their stability and rate of convergence is discussed.

Keywords: Permanent magnet synchronous motor, Mathematicalmodelling, Rotor reference frame, parameter estimation, Luenbergerobserver, reduced order observer, full order observer

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3248 Characteristics of Different Solar PV Modules under Partial Shading

Authors: Hla Hla Khaing, Yit Jian Liang, Nant Nyein Moe Htay, Jiang Fan

Abstract:

Partial shadowing is one of the problems that are always faced in terrestrial applications of solar photovoltaic (PV). The effects of partial shadow on the energy yield of conventional mono-crystalline and multi-crystalline PV modules have been researched for a long time. With deployment of new thin-film solar PV modules in the market, it is important to understand the performance of new PV modules operating under the partial shadow in the tropical zone. This paper addresses the impacts of different partial shadowing on the operating characteristics of four different types of solar PV modules that include multi-crystalline, amorphous thin-film, CdTe thin-film and CIGS thin-film PV modules.

Keywords: Partial shade, CdTe, CIGS, multi-crystalline (mc-Si), amorphous silicon (a-Si), bypass diode.

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3247 Institutional Efficiency of Commonhold Industrial Parks Using a Polynomial Regression Model

Authors: Jeng-Wen Lin, Simon Chien-Yuan Chen

Abstract:

Based on assumptions of neo-classical economics and rational choice / public choice theory, this paper investigates the regulation of industrial land use in Taiwan by homeowners associations (HOAs) as opposed to traditional government administration. The comparison, which applies the transaction cost theory and a polynomial regression analysis, manifested that HOAs are superior to conventional government administration in terms of transaction costs and overall efficiency. A case study that compares Taiwan-s commonhold industrial park, NangKang Software Park, to traditional government counterparts using limited data on the costs and returns was analyzed. This empirical study on the relative efficiency of governmental and private institutions justified the important theoretical proposition. Numerical results prove the efficiency of the established model.

Keywords: Homeowners Associations, Institutional Efficiency, Polynomial Regression, Transaction Cost.

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3246 Comparison of Prognostic Models in Different Scenarios of Shoreline Position on Ponta Negra Beach in Northeastern Brazil

Authors: Débora V. Busman, Venerando E. Amaro, Mattheus da C. Prudêncio

Abstract:

Prognostic studies of the shoreline are of utmost importance for Ponta Negra Beach, located in Natal, Northeastern Brazil, where the infrastructure recently built along the shoreline is severely affected by flooding and erosion. This study compares shoreline predictions using three linear regression methods (LMS, LRR and WLR) and tries to discern the best method for different shoreline position scenarios. The methods have shown erosion on the beach in each of the scenarios tested, even in less intense dynamic conditions. The WLA_A with confidence interval of 95% was the well-adjusted model and calculated a retreat of -1.25 m/yr to -2.0 m/yr in hot spot areas. The change of the shoreline on Ponta Negra Beach can be measured as a negative exponential curve. Analysis of these methods has shown a correlation with the morphodynamic stage of the beach.

Keywords: Coastal Erosion, Prognostic Model, DSAS.

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3245 Conceptual Synthesis of Multi-Source Renewable Energy Based Microgrid

Authors: Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa, Mighanda J. Manyahi, Nicodemu Gregory, Alex L. Kyaruzi

Abstract:

Microgrids are increasingly being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. However, the technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Management of dynamic power balances, power flow, and network voltage profiles imposes unique challenges in the context of microgrids. Stability of the microgrid during both grid-connected and islanded mode is considered as the major challenge during its operation. Traditional control methods have been employed are based on the assumption of linear loads. For instance the concept of PQ, voltage and frequency control through decoupled PQ are some of very useful when considering linear loads, but they fall short when considering nonlinear loads. The deficiency of traditional control methods of microgrid suggests that more research in the control of microgrids should be done. This research aims at introducing the dq technique concept into decoupled PQ for dynamic load demand control in inverter interfaced DG system operating as isolated LV microgrid. Decoupled PQ in exact mathematical formulation in dq frame is expected to accommodate all variations of the line parameters (resistance and inductance) and to relinquish forced relationship between the DG variables such as power, voltage and frequency in LV microgrids and allow for individual parameter control (frequency and line voltages). This concept is expected to address and achieve accurate control, improve microgrid stability and power quality at all load conditions.

Keywords: Decoupled PQ, microgrid, multisource, renewable energy, dq control.

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3244 Constant Order Predictor Corrector Method for the Solution of Modeled Problems of First Order IVPs of ODEs

Authors: A. A. James, A. O. Adesanya, M. R. Odekunle, D. G. Yakubu

Abstract:

This paper examines the development of one step, five hybrid point method for the solution of first order initial value problems. We adopted the method of collocation and interpolation of power series approximate solution to generate a continuous linear multistep method. The continuous linear multistep method was evaluated at selected grid points to give the discrete linear multistep method. The method was implemented using a constant order predictor of order seven over an overlapping interval. The basic properties of the derived corrector was investigated and found to be zero stable, consistent and convergent. The region of absolute stability was also investigated. The method was tested on some numerical experiments and found to compete favorably with the existing methods.

Keywords: Interpolation, Approximate Solution, Collocation, Differential system, Half step, Converges, Block method, Efficiency.

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3243 Replicating Brain’s Resting State Functional Connectivity Network Using a Multi-Factor Hub-Based Model

Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

Abstract:

The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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3242 Prediction of Soil Hydraulic Conductivity from Particle-Size Distribution

Authors: A.F. Salarashayeri, M. Siosemarde

Abstract:

Hydraulic conductivity is one parameter important for predicting the movement of water and contaminants dissolved in the water through the soil. The hydraulic conductivity is measured on soil samples in the lab and sometimes tests carried out in the field. The hydraulic conductivity has been related to soil particle diameter by a number of investigators. In this study, 25 set of soil samples with sand texture. The results show approximately success in predicting hydraulic conductivity from particle diameters data. The following relationship obtained from multiple linear regressions on data (R2 = 0.52): Where d10, d50 and d60, are the soil particle diameter (mm) that 10%, 50% and 60% of all soil particles are finer (smaller) by weight and Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity is expressed in m/day. The results of regression analysis showed that d10 play a more significant role with respect to Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity (m/day), and has been named as the effective parameter in Ks calculation.

Keywords: hydraulic conductivity, particle diameter, particle-size distribution and soil

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