Comparison of Prognostic Models in Different Scenarios of Shoreline Position on Ponta Negra Beach in Northeastern Brazil
Prognostic studies of the shoreline are of utmost importance for Ponta Negra Beach, located in Natal, Northeastern Brazil, where the infrastructure recently built along the shoreline is severely affected by flooding and erosion. This study compares shoreline predictions using three linear regression methods (LMS, LRR and WLR) and tries to discern the best method for different shoreline position scenarios. The methods have shown erosion on the beach in each of the scenarios tested, even in less intense dynamic conditions. The WLA_A with confidence interval of 95% was the well-adjusted model and calculated a retreat of -1.25 m/yr to -2.0 m/yr in hot spot areas. The change of the shoreline on Ponta Negra Beach can be measured as a negative exponential curve. Analysis of these methods has shown a correlation with the morphodynamic stage of the beach.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1091412Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2217
 A. L. S. Santos, V. E. Amaro, D. V. Busman, A. T. Ferreira, M. F. A. Matos, and M. S. T. Santos. "Erosion Aspects in Ponta Negra Beach, Northeast Brazil, through Remote Sensing and High Precision Geodesic Techniques,” in 12th International Coastal Symposium, Plymouth, England. Book of Abstracts, 2013, pp. 235.
 A. S. Genz, C. H. Flercher, R. A. Dunn, L. N. Frazer, and J. J. Rooney. "The Predictive Accuracy of Shoreline Change Rate Methods and Alongshore Beach Variation on Maui, Hawaii,” Journal of Coastal Research, v. 23, no. 1, 2007, pp. 87–105.
 A.T. S. Ferreira, V. E. Amaro, and M. S. T. Santos. "Geodésia aplicada à integração de dados topográficos e batimétricos na caracterização de superfícies de praia” (Periodical style—Accepted for publication). Revista Brasileira de Cartografia, to be published.
 B. M. Romine, C. H. Fletcher, L. N. Frazer, A. S. Genz, M. M. Barbee, and S. C. Lim. "Historical Shoreline Change, Southeast Oahu, Hawaii: Applying Polynimoial Models to Calculate Shoreline Change Rates,” Journal of Coastal Research, vol. 25, no. 6, 2009, pp. 1236–1253.
 B. M. Romine, C. H. Fletcher, A. S. Genz, M. B. Barbee, M. Dyer, T. R. Anderson, S. C. Lim, S. Vitousek, C. Bochicchio, and B. M. Richmond. 2011. "National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, Hawaii,” U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011–1009.
 C. G. de M. Franco, V. E. Amaro, and M. V. da S. Souto. "Prognóstico da erosão costeira no litoral setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte para os anos de 2020, 2030 e 2040,” Revista de Geologia, vol. 25, 2012, pp. 37–54.
 D. V. Busman, V. E. Amaro, M. R. Câmara, S. N. Valcácio, and J. R. Sousa. "Coastal Protection on Tropical Mesotidal Beach: Case Study of Ponta Negra Beach, Natal/RN, Northeast Brazil,” in 12th Inter.l Coastal Symp., Plymouth, England. Book of Abstracts, 2013 a, pp. 38.
 D. V. Busman, V. E. Amaro, M. C. Prudêncio, F. G. F. Lima, M. F. A. Matos, and J. E. Moura. "Shoreline Changes from 1986 to 2010 on Ponta Negra beach, Natal / RN, Northeast Brazil,” in SCACR International Short Course/Conference on Applied Coastal Research, Lisboa, Portugal. Book of Abstracts, 2013 b.
 E. R. Thieler, and W. W. Danforth. "Historical Shoreline Mapping (II): Application of the Digital Shoreline Mapping and Analysis Systems (DSMS/DSAS) to Shoreline Change Mapping in Puerto Rico,” Journal of Coastal Research, vol. 10, no. 3, 1994, pp. 600–620.
 E. R. Thieler, E. A. Himmelstoss, J. L. Zichichi, and A. Ergul. "DSAS 4.0 Installation Instructions and User Guide,” in Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0 - An ArcGIS Extension for Calculating Shoreline Change. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1278. 2009.
 I. Bagdanavičiūtė, L. Kelpšaitė, and D. Daunys. "Assessment of Shoreline Changes Along the Lithuanian Baltic Sea Coast during the period 1947–2010,” Baltica, vol. 25, no. 2, Dec. 2012, pp. 171–184.
 M. S. Harris, E. E. Wright, L. Fuqua, and T. P. Tinker. "Comparison of Shoreline Erosion Rates Derived from Multiple Data Types: Data Compilation for Legislated Setback Lines in South Caroline (USA),” Journal of Coastal Research, SI 56, pp. 1224–1228
[10th International Coastal Symposium, Lisbon, Portugal, 2009].
 R development core team. "R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing,” R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org. 2010.
 V. E. Amaro, F. G. F. Lima, L. R. S. Gomes, A. C. Scudelari, C. F. Neves, and D. V. Busman. "Multitemporal Analysis of Coastal Erosion Based On Multisource Satellite Images, Ponta Negra Beach, Natal City, Northeast Brazil,” in The 11th Inter. Symp. for GIS and Computer Cartography for Coastal Zone Management, Victoria, Canada, 2013, pp. 10–14.