Search results for: Information modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4381

Search results for: Information modelling

4351 Domain Driven Design vs Soft Domain Driven Design Frameworks

Authors: Mohammed Salahat, Steve Wade

Abstract:

This paper presents and compares the SSDDD “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” to DDD “Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft system approach of information systems development. The framework use SSM as a guiding methodology within which we have embedded a sequence of design tasks based on the UML leading to the implementation of a software system using the Naked Objects framework. This framework has been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modelling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, a comparison between SSDDD and DDD is presented in this paper, to show how SSDDD improved DDD as an approach to modelling and implementing business domain perspectives for Information Systems Development. The comparison process, the results, and the improvements are presented in the following sections of this paper.

Keywords: SSM, UML, domain-driven design, soft domain-driven design, naked objects, soft language, information retrieval, multimethodology.

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4350 Product Feature Modelling for Integrating Product Design and Assembly Process Planning

Authors: Baha Hasan, Jan Wikander

Abstract:

This paper describes a part of the integrating work between assembly design and assembly process planning domains (APP). The work is based, in its first stage, on modelling assembly features to support APP. A multi-layer architecture, based on feature-based modelling, is proposed to establish a dynamic and adaptable link between product design using CAD tools and APP. The proposed approach is based on deriving “specific function” features from the “generic” assembly and form features extracted from the CAD tools. A hierarchal structure from “generic” to “specific” and from “high level geometrical entities” to “low level geometrical entities” is proposed in order to integrate geometrical and assembly data extracted from geometrical and assembly modelers to the required processes and resources in APP. The feature concept, feature-based modelling, and feature recognition techniques are reviewed.

Keywords: Assembly feature, assembly process planning, feature, feature-based modelling, form feature, ontology.

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4349 Modelling Peer Group Dieting Behaviour

Authors: M. J. Cunha

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to understand how peers can influence adolescent girls- dieting behaviour and their body image. Departing from imitation and social learning theories, we study whether adolescent girls tend to model their peer group dieting behaviours, thus influencing their body image construction. Our study was conducted through an enquiry applied to a cluster sample of 466 adolescent high school girls in Lisbon city public schools. Our main findings point to an association between girls- and peers- dieting behaviours, thus reinforcing the modelling hypothesis.

Keywords: Modelling, Diet, Body image, Adolescent girls, Peer group.

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4348 Time Series Modelling and Prediction of River Runoff: Case Study of Karkheh River, Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R2) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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4347 Coloured Petri Nets Model for Web Architectures of Web and Database Servers

Authors: Nidhi Gaur, Padmaja Joshi, Vijay Jain, Rajeev Srivastava

Abstract:

Web application architecture is important to achieve the desired performance for the application. Performance analysis studies are conducted to evaluate existing or planned systems. Web applications are used by hundreds of thousands of users simultaneously, which sometimes increases the risk of server failure in real time operations. We use Coloured Petri Net (CPN), a very powerful tool for modelling dynamic behaviour of a web application system. CPNs extend the vocabulary of ordinary Petri nets and add features that make them suitable for modelling large systems. The major focus of this work is on server side of web applications. The presented work focuses on modelling restructuring aspects, with major focus on concurrency and architecture, using CPN. It also focuses on bringing out the appropriate architecture for web and database servers given the number of concurrent users.

Keywords: Coloured petri nets, concurrent users, performance modelling, web application architecture.

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4346 Fuzzy Modeling Tool for Creating a Component Model of Information System

Authors: Bogdan Walek, Jiri Bartos, Cyril Klimes, Jaroslav Prochazka, Pavel Smolka, Juraj Masar, Martin Pesl

Abstract:

This paper focuses on creating a component model of information system under uncertainty. The paper identifies problem in current approach of component modeling and proposes fuzzy tool, which will work with vague customer requirements and propose components of the resulting component model. The proposed tool is verified on specific information system and results are shown in paper. After finding suitable sub-components of the resulting component model, the component model is visualised by tool.

Keywords: Component, component model, fuzzy, fuzzy rules, fuzzy sets, information system, modelling, tool.

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4345 High Order Cascade Multibit ΣΔ Modulator for Wide Bandwidth Applications

Authors: S. Zouari, H. Daoud, M. Loulou, P. Loumeau, N. Masmoudi

Abstract:

A wideband 2-1-1 cascaded ΣΔ modulator with a single-bit quantizer in the two first stages and a 4-bit quantizer in the final stage is developed. To reduce sensitivity of digital-to-analog converter (DAC) nonlinearities in the feedback of the last stage, dynamic element matching (DEM) is introduced. This paper presents two modelling approaches: The first is MATLAB description and the second is VHDL-AMS modelling of the proposed architecture and exposes some high-level-simulation results allowing a behavioural study. The detail of both ideal and non-ideal behaviour modelling are presented. Then, the study of the effect of building blocks nonidealities is presented; especially the influences of nonlinearity, finite operational amplifier gain, amplifier slew rate limitation and capacitor mismatch. A VHDL-AMS description presents a good solution to predict system-s performances and can provide sensitivity curves giving the impact of nonidealities on the system performance.

Keywords: behavioural study, DAC nonlinearity, DEM, ΣΔ modulator, VHDL-AMS modelling.

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4344 Object-Oriented Multivariate Proportional-Integral-Derivative Control of Hydraulic Systems

Authors: J. Fernandez de Canete, S. Fernandez-Calvo, I. García-Moral

Abstract:

This paper presents and discusses the application of the object-oriented modelling software SIMSCAPE to hydraulic systems, with particular reference to multivariable proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control. As a result, a particular modelling approach of a double cylinder-piston coupled system is proposed and motivated, and the SIMULINK based PID tuning tool has also been used to select the proper controller parameters. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of the object-oriented approach when both physical modelling and control are tackled.

Keywords: Object-oriented modeling, multivariable hydraulic system, multivariable PID control, computer simulation.

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4343 Kinematic Modelling and Maneuvering of A 5-Axes Articulated Robot Arm

Authors: T.C. Manjunath

Abstract:

This paper features the kinematic modelling of a 5-axis stationary articulated robot arm which is used for doing successful robotic manipulation task in its workspace. To start with, a 5-axes articulated robot was designed entirely from scratch and from indigenous components and a brief kinematic modelling was performed and using this kinematic model, the pick and place task was performed successfully in the work space of the robot. A user friendly GUI was developed in C++ language which was used to perform the successful robotic manipulation task using the developed mathematical kinematic model. This developed kinematic model also incorporates the obstacle avoiding algorithms also during the pick and place operation.

Keywords: Robot, Sensors, Kinematics, Computer, Control, PNP, LCD, Software.

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4342 Local Spectrum Feature Extraction for Face Recognition

Authors: Muhammad Imran Ahmad, Ruzelita Ngadiran, Mohd Nazrin Md Isa, Nor Ashidi Mat Isa, Mohd Zaizu Ilyas, Raja Abdullah Raja Ahmad, Said Amirul Anwar Ab Hamid, Muzammil Jusoh

Abstract:

This paper presents two techniques, local feature extraction using image spectrum and low frequency spectrum modelling using GMM to capture the underlying statistical information to improve the performance of face recognition system. Local spectrum features are extracted using overlap sub block window that are mapped on the face image. For each of this block, spatial domain is transformed to frequency domain using DFT. A low frequency coefficient is preserved by discarding high frequency coefficients by applying rectangular mask on the spectrum of the facial image. Low frequency information is non- Gaussian in the feature space and by using combination of several Gaussian functions that has different statistical properties, the best feature representation can be modelled using probability density function. The recognition process is performed using maximum likelihood value computed using pre-calculated GMM components. The method is tested using FERET datasets and is able to achieved 92% recognition rates.

Keywords: Local features modelling, face recognition system, Gaussian mixture models.

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4341 Informal Inferential Reasoning Using a Modelling Approach within a Computer-Based Simulation

Authors: Theodosia Prodromou

Abstract:

The article investigates how 14- to 15- year-olds build informal conceptions of inferential statistics as they engage in a modelling process and build their own computer simulations with dynamic statistical software. This study proposes four primary phases of informal inferential reasoning for the students in the statistical modeling and simulation process. Findings show shifts in the conceptual structures across the four phases and point to the potential of all of these phases for fostering the development of students- robust knowledge of the logic of inference when using computer based simulations to model and investigate statistical questions.

Keywords: Inferential reasoning, learning, modelling, statistical inference, simulation.

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4340 Active Learning in Computer Exercises on Electronics

Authors: Zoja Raud, Valery Vodovozov

Abstract:

Modelling and simulation provide effective way to acquire engineering experience. An active approach to modelling and simulation proposed in the paper involves, beside the compulsory part directed by the traditional step-by-step instructions, the new optional part basing on the human’s habits to design thus stimulating the efforts towards success in active learning. Computer exercises as a part of engineering curriculum incorporate a set of effective activities. In addition to the knowledge acquired in theoretical training, the described educational arrangement helps to develop problem solutions, computation skills, and experimentation performance along with enhancement of practical experience and qualification.

Keywords: Modelling, simulation, engineering education, electronics, active learning.

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4339 Specification of Agent Explicit Knowledge in Cryptographic Protocols

Authors: Khair Eddin Sabri, Ridha Khedri, Jason Jaskolka

Abstract:

Cryptographic protocols are widely used in various applications to provide secure communications. They are usually represented as communicating agents that send and receive messages. These agents use their knowledge to exchange information and communicate with other agents involved in the protocol. An agent knowledge can be partitioned into explicit knowledge and procedural knowledge. The explicit knowledge refers to the set of information which is either proper to the agent or directly obtained from other agents through communication. The procedural knowledge relates to the set of mechanisms used to get new information from what is already available to the agent. In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework which specifies the explicit knowledge of an agent involved in a cryptographic protocol. Modelling this knowledge is crucial for the specification, analysis, and implementation of cryptographic protocols. We also, report on a prototype tool that allows the representation and the manipulation of the explicit knowledge.

Keywords: Information Algebra, Agent Knowledge, CryptographicProtocols

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4338 An Agent-Based Approach to Immune Modelling: Priming Individual Response

Authors: Dimitri Perrin, Heather J. Ruskin, Martin Crane

Abstract:

This study focuses on examining why the range of experience with respect to HIV infection is so diverse, especially in regard to the latency period. An agent-based approach in modelling the infection is used to extract high-level behaviour which cannot be obtained analytically from the set of interaction rules at the cellular level. A prototype model encompasses local variation in baseline properties, contributing to the individual disease experience, and is included in a network which mimics the chain of lymph nodes. The model also accounts for stochastic events such as viral mutations. The size and complexity of the model require major computational effort and parallelisation methods are used.

Keywords: HIV, Immune modelling, Agent-based system, individual response.

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4337 Modelling of Hydric Behaviour of Textiles

Authors: A. Marolleau, F. Salaun, D. Dupont, H. Gidik, S. Ducept.

Abstract:

The goal of this study is to analyze the hydric behaviour of textiles which can impact significantly the comfort of the wearer. Indeed, fabrics can be adapted for different climate if hydric and thermal behaviors are known. In this study, fabrics are only submitted to hydric variations. Sorption and desorption isotherms obtained from the dynamic vapour sorption apparatus (DVS) are fitted with the parallel exponential kinetics (PEK), the Hailwood-Horrobin (HH) and the Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) models. One of the major finding is the relationship existing between PEK and HH models. During slow and fast processes, the sorption of water molecules on the polymer can be in monolayer and multilayer form. According to the BET model, moisture regain, a physical property of textiles, show a linear correlation with the total amount of water taken in monolayer. This study provides potential information of the end uses of these fabrics according to the selected activity level.

Keywords: Comfort, hydric properties, modelling, underwear.

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4336 Thermal Analysis of Photovoltaic Integrated Greenhouse Solar Dryer

Authors: Sumit Tiwari, Rohit Tripathi, G. N. Tiwari

Abstract:

Present study focused on the utilization of solar energy by the help of photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer under forced mode. A single slope photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer has been proposed and thermal modelling has been developed. Various parameters have been calculated by thermal modelling such as greenhouse room temperature, cell temperature, crop temperature and air temperature at exit of greenhouse. Further cell efficiency, thermal efficiency, and overall thermal efficiency have been calculated for a typical day of May and November. It was found that system can generate equivalent thermal energy up to 7.65 kW and 6.66 kW per day for clear day of May and November respectively.

Keywords: Characteristics curve, Photovoltaic, Thermal modelling, Thermal efficiency.

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4335 Modelling of Induction Motor Including Skew Effect Using MWFA for Performance Improvement

Authors: M. Harir, A. Bendiabdellah, A. Chaouch, N. Benouzza

Abstract:

This paper deals with the modelling and simulation of the squirrel cage induction motor by taking into account all space harmonic components as well as the introduction of the bars skew in the calculation of the linear evolution of the magnetomotive force (MMF) between the slots extremities. The model used is based on multiple coupled circuits and the modified winding function approach (MWFA). The effect of skewing is included in the calculation of motors inductances with an axial asymmetry in the rotor. The simulation results in both time and spectral domains show the effectiveness and merits of the model and the error that may be caused if the skew of the bars are neglected.

Keywords: Modelling, MWFA, Skew effect, Squirrel cage induction motor, Spectral domain.

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4334 Modelling of a Direct Drive Industrial Robot

Authors: C. Perez, O. Reinoso, N. Garcia, J. M. Sabater, L. Gracia

Abstract:

For high-speed control of robots, a good knowledge of system modelling is necessary to obtain the desired bandwidth. In this paper, we present a cartesian robot with a pan/tilt unit in end-effector (5 dof). This robot is implemented with powerful direct drive AC induction machines. The dynamic model, parameter identification and model validation of the robot are studied (including actuators). This work considers the cartesian robot coupled and non linear (contrary to normal considerations for this type of robots). The mechanical and control architecture proposed in this paper is efficient for industrial and research application in which high speed, well known model and very high accuracy are required.

Keywords: Robot modelling, parameter identification and validation, AC servo-motors.

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4333 Optimisation of Structural Design by Integrating Genetic Algorithms in the Building Information Modelling Environment

Authors: Tofigh Hamidavi, Sepehr Abrishami, Pasquale Ponterosso, David Begg

Abstract:

Structural design and analysis is an important and time-consuming process, particularly at the conceptual design stage. Decisions made at this stage can have an enormous effect on the entire project, as it becomes ever costlier and more difficult to alter the choices made early on in the construction process. Hence, optimisation of the early stages of structural design can provide important efficiencies in terms of cost and time. This paper suggests a structural design optimisation (SDO) framework in which Genetic Algorithms (GAs) may be used to semi-automate the production and optimisation of early structural design alternatives. This framework has the potential to leverage conceptual structural design innovation in Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) projects. Moreover, this framework improves the collaboration between the architectural stage and the structural stage. It will be shown that this SDO framework can make this achievable by generating the structural model based on the extracted data from the architectural model. At the moment, the proposed SDO framework is in the process of validation, involving the distribution of an online questionnaire among structural engineers in the UK.

Keywords: Building Information Modelling, BIM, Genetic Algorithm, GA, architecture-engineering-construction, AEC, Optimisation, structure, design, population, generation, selection, mutation, crossover, offspring.

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4332 Induction Motor Analysis Using LabVIEW

Authors: E. Ramprasath, P. Manojkumar, P. Veena

Abstract:

Proposed paper dealt with the modelling and analysis of induction motor based on the mathematical expression using the graphical programming environment of Laboratory Virtual Instrument Engineering Workbench (LabVIEW). Induction motor modelling with the mathematical expression enables the motor to be simulated with the various required parameters. Owing to the invention of variable speed drives study about the induction motor characteristics became complex. In this simulation motor internal parameter such as stator resistance and reactance, rotor resistance and reactance, phase voltage, frequency and losses will be given as input. By varying the speed of motor corresponding parameters can be obtained they are input power, output power, efficiency, torque induced, slip and current.

Keywords: Induction motor, LabVIEW software, modelling and analysis, electrical and mechanical characteristics of motor.

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4331 Methodology: A Review in Modelling and Predictability of Embankment in Soft Ground

Authors: Bhim Kumar Dahal

Abstract:

Transportation network development in the developing country is in rapid pace. The majority of the network belongs to railway and expressway which passes through diverse topography, landform and geological conditions despite the avoidance principle during route selection. Construction of such networks demand many low to high embankment which required improvement in the foundation soil. This paper is mainly focused on the various advanced ground improvement techniques used to improve the soft soil, modelling approach and its predictability for embankments construction. The ground improvement techniques can be broadly classified in to three groups i.e. densification group, drainage and consolidation group and reinforcement group which are discussed with some case studies.  Various methods were used in modelling of the embankments from simple 1-dimensional to complex 3-dimensional model using variety of constitutive models. However, the reliability of the predictions is not found systematically improved with the level of sophistication.  And sometimes the predictions are deviated more than 60% to the monitored value besides using same level of erudition. This deviation is found mainly due to the selection of constitutive model, assumptions made during different stages, deviation in the selection of model parameters and simplification during physical modelling of the ground condition. This deviation can be reduced by using optimization process, optimization tools and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters which will guide to select the appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Embankment, ground improvement, modelling, model prediction.

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4330 Mathematical Modelling of Partially Filled Fluid Coupling Behaviour

Authors: A. M. Maqableh

Abstract:

Modelling techniques for a fluid coupling taken from published literature have been extended to include the effects of the filling and emptying of the coupling with oil and the variation in losses when the coupling is partially full. In the model, the fluid flow inside the coupling is considered to have two principal velocity components; one circumferentially about the coupling axis (centrifugal head) and the other representing the secondary vortex within the coupling itself (vortex head). The calculation of liquid mass flow rate circulating between the two halves of the coupling is based on: the assumption of a linear velocity variation in the circulating vortex flow; the head differential in the fluid due to the speed difference between the two shafts; and the losses in the circulating vortex flow as a result of the impingement of the flow with the blades in the coupling and friction within the passages between the blades.

Keywords: Fluid Coupling, Mathematical Modelling, partially filled.

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4329 Day Type Identification for Algerian Electricity Load using Kohonen Maps

Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

Abstract:

Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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4328 Wear Measuring and Wear Modelling Based On Archard, ASTM, and Neural Network Models

Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

Abstract:

The wear measuring and wear modelling are fundamental issues in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the economy and safety. Therefore, there is a need to study the wear measurements and wear estimation. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin is made of steel with a tip, positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument. The Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, digital microscope was used to measure the diameter and width of wear scar, and the alicona was used to measure the pin wear and disc wear. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling. Simulation results were implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be used for wear measurements and how the neural network can be used for wear estimation.

Keywords: Wear measuring, Wear modelling, Neural Network, Alicona.

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4327 Modelling Hydrological Time Series Using Wakeby Distribution

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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4326 Modelling Silica Optical Fibre Reliability: A Software Application

Authors: I. Severin, M. Caramihai, R. El Abdi, M. Poulain, A. Avadanii

Abstract:

In order to assess optical fiber reliability in different environmental and stress conditions series of testing are performed simulating overlapping of chemical and mechanical controlled varying factors. Each series of testing may be compared using statistical processing: i.e. Weibull plots. Due to the numerous data to treat, a software application has appeared useful to interpret selected series of experiments in function of envisaged factors. The current paper presents a software application used in the storage, modelling and interpretation of experimental data gathered from optical fibre testing. The present paper strictly deals with the software part of the project (regarding the modelling, storage and processing of user supplied data).

Keywords: Optical fibres, computer aided analysis, data models, data processing, graphical user interfaces.

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4325 Biotechonomy System Dynamics Modelling: Sustainability of Pellet Production

Authors: Andra Blumberga, Armands Gravelsins, Haralds Vigants, Dagnija Blumberga

Abstract:

The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this research study was to build a framework to analyse development perspectives for wood pellet production. To reach the goal, a system dynamics model of energy wood supplies, processing, and consumption is built. Production capacity, energy consumption, changes in energy and technology efficiency, required labour source, prices of wood, energy and labour are taken into account. Validation and verification tests with available data and information have been carried out and indicate that the model constitutes the dynamic hypothesis. It is found that the more is invested into pellets production, the higher the specific profit per production unit compared to wood logs and wood chips. As a result, wood chips production is decreasing dramatically and is replaced by wood pellets. The limiting factor for pellet industry growth is availability of wood sources. This is governed by felling limit set by the government based on sustainable forestry principles.

Keywords: Bioenergy, biotechonomy, system dynamics modelling, wood pellets.

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4324 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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4323 Dynamics of Marital Status and Information Search through Consumer Generated Media: An Exploratory Study

Authors: Shivakumar Krishnamurti, Ruchi Agarwal

Abstract:

The study examines the influence of marital status on consumers of products and services using blogs as a source of information. A pre-designed questionnaire was used to collect the primary data from the respondents (experiences). Data were collected from one hundred and eighty seven respondents residing in and around the Emirates of Sharjah and Dubai of the United Arab Emirates. The collected data was analyzed with the help of statistical tools such as averages, percentages, factor analysis, Student’s t-test and Structural Equation Modelling Technique. Objectives of the study are to know the reasons how married and unmarried or single consumers of products and services are motivated to use blogs as a source of information, to know whether the consumers of products and services irrespective of their marital status share their views and experiences with other bloggers and to know the respondents’ future intentions towards blogging. The study revealed the following: Majority of the respondents have the motivation to blog because they are willing to receive comments on what they post about services, convenience of blogs to search for information about services and products, by blogging respondents share information on the symptoms of a disease/ disorder that may be experienced by someone, helps to share information about ready to cook mix products and are keen to spend more time blogging in the future.

Keywords: Blog, consumer, information, marital status.

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4322 Simulation of Water Droplet on Horizontally Smooth and Rough Surfaces Using Quasi-Molecular Modelling

Authors: S. Kulsri, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

We developed a method based on quasi-molecular modelling to simulate the fall of water drops on horizontally smooth and rough surfaces. Each quasi-molecule was a group of particles that interacted in a fashion entirely analogous to classical Newtonian molecular interactions. When a falling water droplet was simulated at low impact velocity on both smooth and rough surfaces, the droplets moved periodically (i.e. the droplets moved up and down for a certain period, finally they stopped moving and reached a steady state), spreading and recoiling without splash or break-up. Spreading rates of falling water droplets increased rapidly as time increased until the spreading rate reached its steady state at time t ~ 0.25 s for rough surface and t ~ 0.40 s for smooth surface. The droplet height above both surfaces decreased as time increased, remained constant after the droplet diameter attained a maximum value and reached its steady state at time t ~ 0.4 s. However, rough surface had higher spreading rates of falling water droplets and lower height on the surface than smooth one.

Keywords: Quasi-molecular modelling, particle modelling, molecular aggregate approach.

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