Biotechonomy System Dynamics Modelling: Sustainability of Pellet Production
The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this research study was to build a framework to analyse development perspectives for wood pellet production. To reach the goal, a system dynamics model of energy wood supplies, processing, and consumption is built. Production capacity, energy consumption, changes in energy and technology efficiency, required labour source, prices of wood, energy and labour are taken into account. Validation and verification tests with available data and information have been carried out and indicate that the model constitutes the dynamic hypothesis. It is found that the more is invested into pellets production, the higher the specific profit per production unit compared to wood logs and wood chips. As a result, wood chips production is decreasing dramatically and is replaced by wood pellets. The limiting factor for pellet industry growth is availability of wood sources. This is governed by felling limit set by the government based on sustainable forestry principles.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1129626Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 646
 World Bioenergy Association, WBA global bioenergy statistics 2015, 2015
 F. Matthews, Global wood pellet market outlook, Halifax, WPAC Annual Conference, 2015
 M. Šupín, Wood processing and furniture manufacturing challenges on the world market: Wood pellet global market development, 2015 pp. 255–260
 European Biomass Association, European bioenergy outlook: AEBIOM statistical report 2015, 2015, p. 28
 PÖYRY, PÖYRY view point global market, players and trade to 2020: Pellets - Becoming a Global Commodity? 2016, p. 7
 Argus Biomass Markets report. Last accessed on (19.10.2016): https://www.argusmedia.com/~/media/files/pdfs/samples/argus-biomass.pdf/?la=en
 SIA „Forest and Wood Products Research and Development Institute (Meža un koksnes produktu pētniecības un attīstības institūts)”. Research – Forecast for availability of energetic wood in Baltic states (Pētījums – Enerģētiskās koksnes resursu pieejamības prognozes Baltijas valstīs), Jelgava, 2015, p. 69
 J. D. Sterman, Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world, Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2000, pp. 3-39.
 J. W. Forrester, "Industrial dynamics - after the first decade," Management Science, vol. 14, no. 7, pp. 398-415, 1968.
 A. Blumberga, D. Blumberga, G. Bazbauers, P. Davidsen, E. Moxnes, I. Dzene and et al., System Dynamics for Environmental Engineering Students, Riga: Riga Technical University, Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, 2011.
 S. Albin, Building a system dynamics model part 1: Conceptualization, Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1997.
 A. Blumberga, G. Bazbauers, P. Davidsen, D. Blumberga, A. Gravelsins and T. Prodanuks, System dynamics for modeling of biotechonomy ("Sistēmdinamika biotehonomikas modelēšanai"), Riga: Riga Technical University, 2016.
 Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia. Last accessed on (19.10.2016): http://www.csb.gov.lv/dati/statistikas-datubazes-28270.html
 Forest law. Last accessed on (19.10.2016): http://likumi.lv/doc.php?id=2825
 Cabinet of Ministers order about felling amount. Last accessed on (19.10.2016): http://likumi.lv/doc.php?id=212628