Search results for: discrete choice models

Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov

Abstract:

The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.

Keywords: Business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1633

Authors: Widad Jakjoud, Mohamed Bahaj, Jamal Bakkas

Abstract:

Through this paper we present a method for automatic generation of ontological model from any data source using Model Driven Architecture (MDA), this generation is dedicated to the cooperation of the knowledge engineering and software engineering. Indeed, reverse engineering of a data source generates a software model (schema of data) that will undergo transformations to generate the ontological model. This method uses the meta-models to validate software and ontological models.

Keywords: Meta model, model, ontology, data source.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1965

Authors: Cheng Zhang, James Marco, Walid Allafi, Truong Q. Dinh, W. D. Widanage

Abstract:

Equivalent circuit models (ECMs) are widely used in battery management systems in electric vehicles and other battery energy storage systems. The battery dynamics and the model parameters vary under different working conditions, such as different temperature and state of charge (SOC) levels, and therefore online parameter identification can improve the modelling accuracy. This paper presents a way of online ECM parameter identification using a continuous time (CT) estimation method. The CT estimation method has several advantages over discrete time (DT) estimation methods for ECM parameter identification due to the widely separated battery dynamic modes and fast sampling. The presented method can be used for online SOC estimation. Test data are collected using a lithium ion cell, and the experimental results show that the presented CT method achieves better modelling accuracy compared with the conventional DT recursive least square method. The effectiveness of the presented method for online SOC estimation is also verified on test data.

Keywords: Equivalent circuit model, continuous time domain estimation, linear integral filter method, parameter and SOC estimation, recursive least square.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1312

Authors: Thanh Nguyen, Andrei Doncescu, Pierre Siegel

Abstract:

Classification is an important data mining technique and could be used as data filtering in artificial intelligence. The broad application of classification for all kind of data leads to be used in nearly every field of our modern life. Classification helps us to put together different items according to the feature items decided as interesting and useful. In this paper, we compare two classification methods Naïve Bayes and ADTree use to detect spam e-mail. This choice is motivated by the fact that Naive Bayes algorithm is based on probability calculus while ADTree algorithm is based on decision tree. The parameter settings of the above classifiers use the maximization of true positive rate and minimization of false positive rate. The experiment results present classification accuracy and cost analysis in view of optimal classifier choice for Spam Detection. It is point out the number of attributes to obtain a tradeoff between number of them and the classification accuracy.

Keywords: Classification, data mining, spam filtering, naive Bayes, decision tree.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1458

Authors: Libor Zachoval, Daire O Broin, Oisin Cawley

Abstract:

E-learning platforms, such as Blackboard have two major shortcomings: limited data capture as a result of the limitations of SCORM (Shareable Content Object Reference Model), and lack of incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms which could lead to better course adaptations. With the recent development of Experience Application Programming Interface (xAPI), a large amount of additional types of data can be captured and that opens a window of possibilities from which online education can benefit. In a corporate setting, where companies invest billions on the learning and development of their employees, some learner behaviours can be troublesome for they can hinder the knowledge development of a learner. Behaviours that hinder the knowledge development also raise ambiguity about learner’s knowledge mastery, specifically those related to gaming the system. Furthermore, a company receives little benefit from their investment if employees are passing courses without possessing the required knowledge and potential compliance risks may arise. Using xAPI and rules derived from a state-of-the-art review, we identified three learner behaviours, primarily related to guessing, in a corporate compliance course. The identified behaviours are: trying each option for a question, specifically for multiple-choice questions; selecting a single option for all the questions on the test; and continuously repeating tests upon failing as opposed to going over the learning material. These behaviours were detected on learners who repeated the test at least 4 times before passing the course. These findings suggest that gauging the mastery of a learner from multiple-choice questions test scores alone is a naive approach. Thus, next steps will consider the incorporation of additional data points, knowledge estimation models to model knowledge mastery of a learner more accurately, and analysis of the data for correlations between knowledge development and identified learner behaviours. Additional work could explore how learner behaviours could be utilised to make changes to a course. For example, course content may require modifications (certain sections of learning material may be shown to not be helpful to many learners to master the learning outcomes aimed at) or course design (such as the type and duration of feedback).

Keywords: Compliance Course, Corporate Training, Learner Behaviours, xAPI.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 531

Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

Abstract:

Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 266

Authors: M. K. Pradhan, C. K. Biswas,

Abstract:

In the current research, neuro-fuzzy model and regression model was developed to predict Material Removal Rate in Electrical Discharge Machining process for AISI D2 tool steel with copper electrode. Extensive experiments were conducted with various levels of discharge current, pulse duration and duty cycle. The experimental data are split into two sets, one for training and the other for validation of the model. The training data were used to develop the above models and the test data, which was not used earlier to develop these models were used for validation the models. Subsequently, the models are compared. It was found that the predicted and experimental results were in good agreement and the coefficients of correlation were found to be 0.999 and 0.974 for neuro fuzzy and regression model respectively

Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, material removal rate, neuro-fuzzy model, regression model, mountain clustering.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1363

Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

Abstract:

Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: Roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 768

Authors: Ahmed El Oualkadi, Abdellah Ait Ouahman

Abstract:

This paper discusses a systematic design of a Σ-Δ fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop based on HDL behavioral modeling. The proposed design consists in describing the mixed behavior of this PLL architecture starting from the specifications of each building block. The HDL models of critical PLL blocks have been described in VHDL-AMS to predict the different specifications of the PLL. The effect of different noise sources has been efficiently introduced to study the PLL system performances. The obtained results are compared with transistor-level simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models for wireless applications in the frequency range around 2.45 GHz.

Keywords: Phase-locked loop, frequency synthesizer, fractional-N PLL, Σ-Δ modulator, HDL models

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3754

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3893

Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1169

Authors: Jason Chien-Hsun Tseng, Nguyen Dong-Thai Dao, Chong-Ching Chang

Abstract:

A novel PDE solver using the multidimensional wave digital filtering (MDWDF) technique to achieve the solution of a 2D seismic wave system is presented. In essence, the continuous physical system served by a linear Kirchhoff circuit is transformed to an equivalent discrete dynamic system implemented by a MD wave digital filtering (MDWDF) circuit. This amounts to numerically approximating the differential equations used to describe elements of a MD passive electronic circuit by a grid-based difference equations implemented by the so-called state quantities within the passive MDWDF circuit. So the digital model can track the wave field on a dense 3D grid of points. Details about how to transform the continuous system into a desired discrete passive system are addressed. In addition, initial and boundary conditions are properly embedded into the MDWDF circuit in terms of state quantities. Graphic results have clearly demonstrated some physical effects of seismic wave (P-wave and S–wave) propagation including radiation, reflection, and refraction from and across the hard boundaries. Comparison between the MDWDF technique and the finite difference time domain (FDTD) approach is also made in terms of the computational efficiency.

Keywords: Seismic Wave Propagation, Multi-dimension WaveDigital Filters, Partial Differential Equations.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1403

Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming

Abstract:

The present work describes a computational study of aerodynamic characteristics of GLC305 airfoil clean and with 16.7 min ice shape (rime 212) and 22.5 min ice shape (glaze 944).The performance of turbulence models SA, Kε, Kω Std, and Kω SST model are observed against experimental flow fields at different Mach numbers 0.12, 0.21, 0.28 in a range of Reynolds numbers 3x106, 6x106, and 10.5x106 on clean and iced aircraft airfoil GLC305. Numerical predictions include lift, drag and pitching moment coefficients at different Mach numbers and at different angle of attacks were done. Accuracy of solutions with respect to the effects of turbulence models, variation of Mach number, initial conditions, grid resolution and grid spacing near the wall made the study much sensitive. Navier Stokes equation based computational technique is used. Results are very close to the experimental results. It has seen that SA and SST models are more efficient than Kε and Kω standard in under study problem.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, Airfoil GLC305, Iced Airfoil, Turbulence Model

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2443

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present, propose and examine additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions. Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecast , Fuzzy membership functions, Smoothingtransition, Time-series

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1498

Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

Abstract:

In this paper, a linear mixed model which has two random effects is broken up into two models. This thesis gets the parameter estimation of the original model and an estimation’s statistical qualities based on these two models. Then many important properties are given by comparing this estimation with other general estimations. At the same time, this paper proves the analysis of variance estimate (ANOVAE) about σ2 of the original model is equal to the least-squares estimation (LSE) about σ2 of these two models. Finally, it also proves that this estimation is better than ANOVAE under Stein function and special condition in some degree.

Keywords: Linear mixed model, Random effects, Parameter estimation, Stein function.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1787

Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

Abstract:

One of the most important parts of a cement factory is the cement rotary kiln which plays a key role in quality and quantity of produced cement. In this part, the physical exertion and bilateral movement of air and materials, together with chemical reactions take place. Thus, this system has immensely complex and nonlinear dynamic equations. These equations have not worked out yet. Only in exceptional case; however, a large number of the involved parameter were crossed out and an approximation model was presented instead. This issue caused many problems for designing a cement rotary kiln controller. In this paper, we presented nonlinear predictor and simulator models for a real cement rotary kiln by using nonlinear identification technique on the Locally Linear Neuro- Fuzzy (LLNF) model. For the first time, a simulator model as well as a predictor one with a precise fifteen minute prediction horizon for a cement rotary kiln is presented. These models are trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental tree-structure algorithm. At the end, the characteristics of these models are expressed. Furthermore, we presented the pros and cons of these models. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for modeling.

Keywords: Cement rotary kiln, nonlinear identification, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1989

Authors: D.O. Omondi, M.K. Walingo, G.M. Mbagaya, L.O.A. Othuon

Abstract:

Many studies have applied the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) in predicting health behaviors among unique populations. However, a new paradigm is emerging where focus is now directed to modification and expansion of the TPB model rather than utilization of the traditional theory. This review proposes new models modified from the Theory of Planned Behavior and suggest an appropriate study design that can be used to test the models within physical activity and dietary practice domains among Type 2 diabetics in Kenya. The review was conducted by means of literature search in the field of nutrition behavior, health psychology and mixed methods using predetermined key words. The results identify pre-intention and post intention gaps within the TPB model that need to be filled. Additional psychosocial factors are proposed to be included in the TPB model to generate new models and the efficacy of these models tested using mixed methods design.

Keywords: Physical activity, diet, Type 2 diabetes, behaviorchange theory, model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2665

Authors: Dimitar Georgiev, Bogdan Bogdanov, Yancho Hristov, Irena Markovska

Abstract:

In this study the adsorption of Cu (II) ions from aqueous solutions on synthetic zeolite NaA was evaluated. The effect of solution temperature and the determination of the kinetic parameters of adsorption of Cu(II) from aqueous solution on zeolite NaA is important in understanding the adsorption mechanism. Variables of the system include adsorption time, temperature (293- 328K), initial solution concentration and pH for the system. The sorption kinetics of the copper ions were found to be strongly dependent on pH (the optimum pH 3-5), solute ion concentration and temperature (293 – 328 K). It was found, the pseudo-second-order model was the best choice among all the kinetic models to describe the adsorption behavior of Cu(II) onto ziolite NaA, suggesting that the adsorption mechanism might be a chemisorptions process The activation energy of adsorption (Ea) was determined as Cu(II) 13.5 kJ mol-1. The low value of Ea shows that Cu(II) adsorption process by zeolite NaA may be an activated chemical adsorption. The thermodynamic parameters (ΔG0, ΔH0, and ΔS0) were also determined from the temperature dependence. The results show that the process of adsorption Cu(II) is spontaneous and endothermic process and rise in temperature favors the adsorption.

Keywords: Zeolite NaA, adsorption, adsorption capacity, kinetic sorption

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2174

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: Equivalent Martingale Measure, European Put Option, Girsanov Theorem, Martingales, Monte Carlo method, option price valuation, option price valuation formula.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 697

Authors: González-Izal M., Rodríguez-Carreño I, Mallor-Giménez F, Malanda A, Izquierdo M

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare new indices based on the discrete wavelet transform with another spectral parameters proposed in the literature as mean average voltage, median frequency and ratios between spectral moments applied to estimate acute exercise-induced changes in power output, i.e., to assess peripheral muscle fatigue during a dynamic fatiguing protocol. 15 trained subjects performed 5 sets consisting of 10 leg press, with 2 minutes rest between sets. Surface electromyography was recorded from vastus medialis (VM) muscle. Several surface electromyographic parameters were compared to detect peripheral muscle fatigue. These were: mean average voltage (MAV), median spectral frequency (Fmed), Dimitrov spectral index of muscle fatigue (FInsm5), as well as other five parameters obtained from the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) as ratios between different scales. The new wavelet indices achieved the best results in Pearson correlation coefficients with power output changes during acute dynamic contractions. Their regressions were significantly different from MAV and Fmed. On the other hand, they showed the highest robustness in presence of additive white gaussian noise for different signal to noise ratios (SNRs). Therefore, peripheral impairments assessed by sEMG wavelet indices may be a relevant factor involved in the loss of power output after dynamic high-loading fatiguing task.

Keywords: Median Frequency, EMG, wavelet transform, muscle fatigue

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1837

Authors: Xiang Zhang, David Rey, S. Travis Waller

Abstract:

Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is a widely used traffic assignment model in transportation planning, which is regarded more advanced than Deterministic User Equilibrium (DUE) model. However, a problem exists that the performance of the SUE model depends on its error term parameter. The objective of this paper is to propose a systematic method of determining the appropriate error term parameter value for the SUE model. First, the significance of the parameter is explored through a numerical example. Second, the parameter calibration method is developed based on the Logit-based route choice model. The calibration process is realized through multiple nonlinear regression, using sequential quadratic programming combined with least square method. Finally, case analysis is conducted to demonstrate the application of the calibration process and validate the better performance of the SUE model calibrated by the proposed method compared to the SUE models under other parameter values and the DUE model.

Keywords: Parameter calibration, sequential quadratic programming, Stochastic User Equilibrium, traffic assignment, transportation planning.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2087

Authors: Raninder Kaur Dhillon, Mayur Jethwa, Hardeep Singh Rai

Abstract:

Information technology has made a pivotal progress across disparate disciplines, one of which is AEC (Architecture, Engineering and Construction) industry. CAD is a form of computer-aided building modulation that architects, engineers and contractors use to create and view two- and three-dimensional models. The AEC industry also uses building information modeling (BIM), a newer computerized modeling system that can create four-dimensional models; this software can greatly increase productivity in the AEC industry. BIM models generate open source IFC (Industry Foundation Classes) files which aim for interoperability for exchanging information throughout the project lifecycle among various disciplines. The methods developed in previous studies require either an IFC schema or MVD and software applications, such as an IFC model server or a Building Information Modeling (BIM) authoring tool, to extract a partial or complete IFC instance model. This paper proposes an efficient algorithm for extracting a partial and total model from an Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) instance model without an IFC schema or a complete IFC model view definition (MVD).

Keywords: BIM, CAD, IFC, MVD.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2671

Authors: M. Hossain, H. P. Zhu, A. B. Yu

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical investigation of regime transition of flow of ellipsoidal particles and a comparison with that of spherical particle assembly. Particle assemblies constituting spherical and ellipsoidal particle of 2.5:1 aspect ratio are examined at separate instances in similar flow conditions in a shear cell model that is numerically developed based on the discrete element method. Correlations among elastically scaled stress, kinetically scaled stress, coordination number and volume fraction are investigated, and show important similarities and differences for the spherical and ellipsoidal particle assemblies. In particular, volume fractions at points of regime transition are identified for both types of particles. It is found that compared with spherical particle assembly, ellipsoidal particle assembly has higher volume fraction for the quasistatic to intermediate regime transition and lower volume fraction for the intermediate to inertial regime transition. Finally, the relationship between coordination number and volume fraction shows strikingly distinct features for the two cases, suggesting that different from spherical particles, the effect of the shear rate on the coordination number is not significant for ellipsoidal particles. This work provides a glimpse of currently running work on one of the most attractive scopes of research in this field and has a wide prospect in understanding rheology of more complex shaped particles in light of the strong basis of simpler spherical particle rheology.

Keywords: Discrete element method, granular rheology, non-spherical particles, regime transition

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1474

Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

Abstract:

As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: Global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, North Western Himalayan region.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1020

Authors: Zoran Jovanovic, Zoran Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

Abstract:

In this paper, results concerning flame propagation of various fuels in a particular combustion chamber with four tilted valves were elucidated. Flame propagation was represented by the evolution of spatial distribution of temperature in various cut-planes within combustion chamber while the flame front location was determined by dint of zones with maximum temperature gradient. The results presented are only a small part of broader on-going scrutinizing activity in the field of multidimensional modeling of reactive flows in combustion chambers with complicated geometries encompassing various models of turbulence, different fuels and combustion models. In the case of turbulence two different models were applied i.e. standard k-ε model of turbulence and k-ξ-f model of turbulence. In this paper flame propagation results were analyzed and presented for two different hydrocarbon fuels, such as CH4 and C8H18. In the case of combustion all differences ensuing from different turbulence models, obvious for non-reactive flows are annihilated entirely. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is invariant as regards turbulence models and fuels applied. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is entirely invariant as regards fuel variation indicating that the flame propagation through unburned mixture of CH4 and C8H18 fuels is not chemically controlled.

Keywords: Automotive flows, flame propagation, combustion modelling.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1256

Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Noe Barrera-G

Abstract:

An analysis of a synchronous generator in a bond graph approach is proposed. This bond graph allows to determine the simplified models of the system by using singular perturbations. Firstly, the nonlinear bond graph of the generator is linearized. Then, the slow and fast state equations by applying singular perturbations are obtained. Also, a bond graph to get the quasi-steady state of the slow dynamic is proposed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the singularly perturbed models, simulation results of the complete system and reduced models are shown.

Keywords: Bond graph modelling, synchronous generator, singular perturbations

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1670

Authors: R. Tur, A. Yardımcı

Abstract:

Imperfect knowledge cannot be avoided all the time. Imperfections may have several forms; uncertainties, imprecision and incompleteness. When we look to classification of methods for the management of imperfect knowledge we see fuzzy set-based techniques. The choice of a method to process data is linked to the choice of knowledge representation, which can be numerical, symbolic, logical or semantic and it depends on the nature of the problem to be solved for example decision support, which will be mentioned in our study. Fuzzy Logic is used for its ability to manage imprecise knowledge, but it can take advantage of the ability of neural networks to learn coefficients or functions. Such an association of methods is typical of so-called soft computing. In this study a new method was used for the management of imprecision for collected knowledge which related to economic analysis of construction industry in Turkey. Because of sudden changes occurring in economic factors decrease competition strength of construction companies. The better evaluation of these changes in economical factors in view of construction industry will made positive influence on company-s decisions which are dealing construction.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, decision support systems, construction industry.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1606

Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: Evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1138

Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman, K. Kadirgama, M.A. Maleque, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Conventionally the selection of parameters depends intensely on the operator-s experience or conservative technological data provided by the EDM equipment manufacturers that assign inconsistent machining performance. The parameter settings given by the manufacturers are only relevant with common steel grades. A single parameter change influences the process in a complex way. Hence, the present research proposes artificial neural network (ANN) models for the prediction of surface roughness on first commenced Ti-15-3 alloy in electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. The proposed models use peak current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage as input parameters. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) with three hidden layer feedforward networks are applied. An assessment is carried out with the models of distinct hidden layer. Training of the models is performed with data from an extensive series of experiments utilizing copper electrode as positive polarity. The predictions based on the above developed models have been verified with another set of experiments and are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Beside this they can be exercised as precious tools for the process planning for EDM.

Keywords: Ti-15l-3, surface roughness, copper, positive polarity, multi-layered perceptron.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1866

Authors: Hamidreza Akbari

Abstract:

In this paper, for detection of inclined eccentricity in an induction motor, time–frequency analysis of the stator startup current is carried out. For this purpose, the discrete wavelet transform is used. Data are obtained from simulations, using winding function approach. The results show the validity of the approach for detecting the fault and discriminating with respect to other faults.

Keywords: Induction machine, Fault, DWT.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2105