Search results for: Probabilistic model

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Herpes zoster is a disease that manifests as a dermatological condition. The characteristic of this disease is an irritating skin rash with blisters. This is often limited to one side of body. From the data of Herpes zoster cases in Thailand, we found that age structure effects to the transmission of this disease. In this study, we construct the age structural model of Herpes zoster in Thailand. The local stability analysis of this model is given. The numerical solutions are shown to confirm the analytical results.

Keywords: Age structural model, Herpes zoster, local stability, Numerical solution.

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Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

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Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: Reliability approach, storage tanks, Monte Carlo simulation, seismic acceleration.

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Authors: Jan Erik Stellet

Abstract:

This article presents a detailed analysis and comparative performance evaluation of model reference adaptive control systems. In contrast to classical control theory, adaptive control methods allow to deal with time-variant processes. Inspired by the works [1] and [2], two methods based on the MIT rule and Lyapunov rule are applied to a linear first order system. The system is simulated and it is investigated how changes to the adaptation gain affect the system performance. Furthermore, variations in the reference model parameters, that is changing the desired closed-loop behaviour are examinded.

Keywords: Adaptive control systems, Adaptation gain, MIT rule, Lyapunov rule, Model reference adaptive control.

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Authors: Mohd Shahrom Ismail, B.T. Hang Tuah Baharudin, K.K.B. Hon

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In this paper, a methodology of a model based on predicting the tool forces oblique machining are introduced by adopting the orthogonal technique. The applied analytical calculation is mostly based on Devries model and some parts of the methodology are employed from Amareggo-Brown model. Model validation is performed by comparing experimental data with the prediction results on machining titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) based on micro-cutting tool perspective. Good agreements with the experiments are observed. A detailed friction form that affected the tool forces also been examined with reasonable results obtained.

Keywords: dynamics machining, micro cutting tool, Tool forces

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Authors: M. Rychlik, R. Roszak, M. Morzynski, M. Nowak, H. Hausa, K. Kotecki

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Article presents the geometry and structure reconstruction procedure of the aircraft model for flatter research (based on the I22-IRYDA aircraft). For reconstruction the Reverse Engineering techniques and advanced surface modeling CAD tools are used. Authors discuss all stages of data acquisition process, computation and analysis of measured data. For acquisition the three dimensional structured light scanner was used. In the further sections, details of reconstruction process are present. Geometry reconstruction procedure transform measured input data (points cloud) into the three dimensional parametric computer model (NURBS solid model) which is compatible with CAD systems. Parallel to the geometry of the aircraft, the internal structure (structural model) are extracted and modeled. In last chapter the evaluation of obtained models are discussed.

Keywords: computer modeling, numerical simulation, Reverse Engineering, structural model

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Authors: Yung-Yuan Hsu

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The primary objective of this paper was to construct a “kinematic parameter-independent modeling of three-axis machine tools for geometric error measurement" technique. Improving the accuracy of the geometric error for three-axis machine tools is one of the machine tools- core techniques. This paper first applied the traditional method of HTM to deduce the geometric error model for three-axis machine tools. This geometric error model was related to the three-axis kinematic parameters where the overall errors was relative to the machine reference coordinate system. Given that the measurement of the linear axis in this model should be on the ideal motion axis, there were practical difficulties. Through a measurement method consolidating translational errors and rotational errors in the geometric error model, we simplified the three-axis geometric error model to a kinematic parameter-independent model. Finally, based on the new measurement method corresponding to this error model, we established a truly practical and more accurate error measuring technique for three-axis machine tools.

Keywords: Three-axis machine tool, Geometric error, HTM, Error measuring

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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Authors: M. A. Serag-Eldin

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of simple measurements conducted on a model of a wind-driven venturi-type room ventilator. The ventilator design is new and was developed employing mathematical modeling. However, the computational model was not validated experimentally for the particular application considered. The paper presents the performance of the ventilator model under laboratory conditions, for five different wind tunnel speeds. The results are used to both demonstrate the effectiveness of the new design and to validate the computational model employed to develop it.

Keywords: Venturi-flow, ventilation, Wind-energy, Wind flow.

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Authors: Ali Taee Zade, Siamak Rasulzadeh, Reza Torkashvan

Abstract:

Although Model Driven Architecture has taken successful steps toward model-based software development, this approach still faces complex situations and ambiguous questions while applying to real world software systems. One of these questions - which has taken the most interest and focus - is how model transforms between different abstraction levels, MDA proposes. In this paper, we propose an approach based on Story Driven Modeling and Aspect Oriented Programming to ease these transformations. Service Oriented Architecture is taken as the target model to test the proposed mechanism in a functional system. Service Oriented Architecture and Model Driven Architecture [1] are both considered as the frontiers of their own domain in the software world. Following components - which was the greatest step after object oriented - SOA is introduced, focusing on more integrated and automated software solutions. On the other hand - and from the designers' point of view - MDA is just initiating another evolution. MDA is considered as the next big step after UML in designing domain.

Keywords: SOA, MDA, SDM, Model Transformation, Middleware Transparency, Aspects and Jini.

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Authors: Azlina Abu Bakar, Abdul Fatah Wan Sidek

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Well-being has been given special emphasis in quality of life. It involves living a meaningful, life satisfaction, stability and happiness in life. Well-being also concerns the satisfaction of physical, psychological, social needs and demands of an individual. The purpose of this study was to validate three-factor measurement model of well-being using structural equation modeling (SEM). The conceptions of well-being measured such dimensions as physical, psychological and social well-being. This study was done based on a total sample of 650 adolescents from east-coast of peninsular Malaysia. The Well-Being Scales which was adapted from [1] was used in this study. The items were hypothesized a priori to have nonzero loadings on all dimensions in the model. The findings of the SEM demonstrated that it is a good fitting model which the proposed model fits the driving theory; (x2df = 1.268; GFI = .994; CFI = .998; TLI= .996; p = .255; RMSEA = .021). Composite reliability (CR) was .93 and average variance extracted (AVE) was 58%. The model in this study fits with the sample of data and well-being is important to bring sustainable development to the mainstream.

Keywords: Adolescence, Structural Equation Modeling, Sustainable Development, Well-Being.

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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Authors: Lenka Krulikovská, Jaroslav Polec

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In this paper we present a modification to existed model of threshold for shot cut detection, which is able to adapt itself to the sequence statistics and operate in real time, because it use for calculation only previously evaluated frames. The efficiency of proposed modified adaptive threshold scheme was verified through extensive test experiment with several similarity metrics and achieved results were compared to the results reached by the original model. According to results proposed threshold scheme reached higher accuracy than existed original model.

Keywords: Abrupt cut, shot cut detection, adaptive threshold.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: Transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation.

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Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

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Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision making, management and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistances, unique position of medical data content and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. Success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose a HA process model with features from rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: Agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML.

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Authors: H. Zabiri, N. Mazuki

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Several valve stiction models have been proposed in the literature to help understand and study the behavior of sticky valves. In this paper, an alternative black-box modeling approach based on Neural Network (NN) is presented. It is shown that with proper network type and optimum model structures, the performance of the developed NN stiction model is comparable to other established method. The resulting NN model is also tested for its robustness against the uncertainty in the stiction parameter values. Predictive mode operation also shows excellent performance of the proposed model for multi-steps ahead prediction.

Keywords: Control valve stiction, neural network, modeling.

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Authors: A. Amar, O. Hemeda

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A study of the structure of the nucleus with the analogy by solid-state physics has been developed. We have used binding energy to calculate R (a parameter that is proportional to the radius of the nucleus) for deuteron, alpha, and ⁸Be. The calculated parameter r calculated from solid state physics produces a probe for calculation the nuclear radii. ⁸Be has special attention as it is radioactive nucleus and the latest nucleus to be calculated from crystalline model approach. The distribution of nucleons inside the nucleus is taken to be tetrahedral for ¹⁶O. The model has failed to expect the radius of ⁹Be which is an impression about the modification should be done on the model at near future. A comparison between our calculations and those from literature has been made, and a good agreement has been obtained.

Keywords: The structure of the nucleus, binding energy, crystalline model approach, nuclear radii, tetrahedral for 16O.

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Authors: M. Palanivel, R. Uthayakumar

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In this paper, Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) based model for non-instantaneous Weibull distribution deteriorating items with power demand pattern is presented. In this model, the holding cost per unit of the item per unit time is assumed to be an increasing linear function of time spent in storage. Here the retailer is allowed a trade-credit offer by the supplier to buy more items. Also in this model, shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. The backlogging rate is dependent on the waiting time for the next replenishment. This model aids in minimizing the total inventory cost by finding the optimal time interval and finding the optimal order quantity. The optimal solution of the model is illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Finally sensitivity analysis and graphical representations are given to demonstrate the model.

Keywords: Power demand pattern, Partial backlogging, Time dependent holding cost, Trade credit, Weibull deterioration.

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Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim

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In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption. We can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.

Keywords: Activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, Self-adaptive, UML, vehicle.

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Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Khalil Ghorbani

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This research compares results of major methods of determining the flow discharge using experimental relationships with results from the M5 decision tree model in meandering compound sections in several laboratory channels. It was found that the M5 decision tree model enjoyed greater accuracy of statistical parameters compared to methods to the said methods. This suggested that the M5 decision tree model has highly improved the calculated accuracy of the flow discharge in meandering compound channels.

Keywords: Stage-discharge relationship, M5 decision tree model, compound section, meandering compound channel.

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Authors: Erik Delarue, David Bekaert, Ronnie Belmans, William D'haeseleer

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This paper presents the development of an electricity simulation model taking into account electrical network constraints, applied on the Belgian power system. The base of the model is optimizing an extensive Unit Commitment (UC) problem through the use of Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Electrical constraints are incorporated through the implementation of a DC load flow. The model encloses the Belgian power system in a 220 – 380 kV high voltage network (i.e., 93 power plants and 106 nodes). The model features the use of pumping storage facilities as well as the inclusion of spinning reserves in a single optimization process. Solution times of the model stay below reasonable values.

Keywords: Electricity generation modeling, Unit Commitment(UC), Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), DC load flow.

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Authors: Mohammed Bilal

Abstract:

The precise prediction of aerodynamic behavior is necessary for the design and optimization of airfoils for a variety of applications. Turbulence, a phenomenon of complex and irregular flow, significantly affects the aerodynamic properties of airfoils. Therefore, turbulence modeling is essential for accurately predicting the behavior of airfoils in simulations. This study investigates five commonly employed turbulence models: Spalart-Allmaras (SA) model, k-epsilon model, k-omega model, Reynolds Stress Model (RSM), and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model. The paper includes a comparison of the models' precision, computational expense, and applicability to various flow conditions. The strengths and weaknesses of each model are highlighted, allowing researchers and engineers to make informed decisions regarding simulations of specific airfoils. Unquestionably, the continuous development of turbulence modeling will contribute to further improvements in airfoil design and optimization, which will be advantageous to numerous industries.

Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics, airfoil, turbulence, aircraft.

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Authors: T.C.Manjunath, C. Ardil

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This paper deals with the development of a Jacobean model for a 4-axes indigenously developed scara robot arm in the laboratory. This model is used to study the relation between the velocities and the forces in the robot while it is doing the pick and place operation.

Keywords: SCARA, Jacobean, Tool Configuration Vector, Computer Control , Visual Basic , Interfacing , Drivers,

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Authors: Liu Shu, Dong Shangjia

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Our goal is to effectively increase the number of boats in the river during a six month period. The main factors of determining the number of boats are duration and “select the priority trip". In the microcosmic simulation model, the best result is 4 to 24 nights with DSCF, and the number of boats is 812 with an increasing ratio of 9.0% related to the second best result. However, the number of boats is related to 31.6% less than the best one in 6 to 18 nights with FCFS. In the discrete duration model, we get from 6 to 18 nights, the numbers of boats have increased to 848 with an increase ratio of 29.7% than the best result in model I for the same time range. Moreover, from 4 to 24 nights, the numbers of boats have increase to 1194 with an increase ratio of 47.0% than the best result in model I for the same time range.

Keywords: Discrete duration model, “select the priority trip”, microcosmic simulation model.

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Authors: Ali Hussian Ali AlTimemy, Fawzi M. Al Naima

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This paper presents the prediction of kidney dysfunction using different neural network (NN) approaches. Self organization Maps (SOM), Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and Multi Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) trained with Back Propagation Algorithm (BPA) are used in this study. Six hundred and sixty three sets of analytical laboratory tests have been collected from one of the private clinical laboratories in Baghdad. For each subject, Serum urea and Serum creatinin levels have been analyzed and tested by using clinical laboratory measurements. The collected urea and cretinine levels are then used as inputs to the three NN models in which the training process is done by different neural approaches. SOM which is a class of unsupervised network whereas PNN and BPNN are considered as class of supervised networks. These networks are used as a classifier to predict whether kidney is normal or it will have a dysfunction. The accuracy of prediction, sensitivity and specificity were found for each type of the proposed networks .We conclude that PNN gives faster and more accurate prediction of kidney dysfunction and it works as promising tool for predicting of routine kidney dysfunction from the clinical laboratory data.

Keywords: Kidney Dysfunction, Prediction, SOM, PNN, BPNN, Urea and Creatinine levels.

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Authors: Muh. Hisjam, Nancy Oktyajati, Wakhid A. Jauhari, Wahyudi Sutopo

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This research is intended to develop a raw material allocation model in timber processing industry in Perum Perhutani Unit I, Central Java, Indonesia. The model can be used to determine the quantity of allocation of timber between chain in the supply chain to select supplier considering factors that are log price and the distance. In determining the quantity of allocation of timber between chains in the supply chain, the model considers the optimal inventory in each chain. Whilst the optimal inventory is determined based on demand forecast, the capacity and safety stock. Problem solving allocation is conducted by developing linear programming model that aims to minimize the total cost of the purchase, transportation cost and storage costs at each chain. The results of numerical examples show that the proposed model can generate savings of the purchase cost of 20.84% and select suppliers with mileage closer.

Keywords: Allocation model, linear programming, purchase costs, storage costs, suppliers, transportation costs.

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Authors: Keny Ordaz-Hernandez, Xavier Fischer, Fouad Bennis

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This article illustrates a model selection management approach for virtual prototypes in interactive simulations. In those numerical simulations, the virtual prototype and its environment are modelled as a multiagent system, where every entity (prototype,human, etc.) is modelled as an agent. In particular, virtual prototyp ingagents that provide mathematical models of mechanical behaviour inform of computational methods are considered. This work argues that selection of an appropriate model in a changing environment,supported by models? characteristics, can be managed by the deter-mination a priori of specific exploitation and performance measures of virtual prototype models. As different models exist to represent a single phenomenon, it is not always possible to select the best one under all possible circumstances of the environment. Instead the most appropriate shall be selecting according to the use case. The proposed approach consists in identifying relevant metrics or indicators for each group of models (e.g. entity models, global model), formulate their qualification, analyse the performance, and apply the qualification criteria. Then, a model can be selected based on the performance prediction obtained from its qualification. The authors hope that this approach will not only help to inform engineers and researchers about another approach for selecting virtual prototype models, but also assist virtual prototype engineers in the systematic or automatic model selection.

Keywords: Virtual prototype models, domain, qualification criterion, model qualification, model assessment, environmental modelling.

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Authors: Kai Wang, Yanling Zu

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By utilizing the comparison theorem and Lyapunov second method, some sufficient conditions for the permanence and global attractivity of positive periodic solution for a predator-prey model with mutual interference m ∈ (0, 1) and delays τi are obtained. It is the first time that such a model is considered with delays. The significant is that the results presented are related to the delays and the mutual interference constant m. Several examples are illustrated to verify the feasibility of the results by simulation in the last part.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, Mutual interference, Delays, Permanence, Global attractivity

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Authors: H. Pahlavanzadeh, A.R.Jahangiri, I. Noshadi

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In this paper, the solubility of CO2 in AMP solution have been measured at temperature range of ( 293, 303 ,313,323) K.The amine concentration ranges studied are (2.0, 2.8, and 3.4) M. A solubility apparatus was used to measure the solubility of CO2 in AMP solution on samples of flue gases from Thermal and Central Power Plants of Esfahan Steel Company. The modified Kent Eisenberg model was used to correlate and predict the vapor-liquid equilibria of the (CO2 + AMP + H2O) system. The model predicted results are in good agreement with the experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium measurements.

Keywords: AMP, Carbon dioxide; loading, Flue gases, Modified Kent Eisenberg model

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Authors: A. Zanj, F. He

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In the current paper, a domain independent conduction model compatible for multi-physical system dynamic investigations is suggested. By means of a port-based approach, a classical nonlinear conduction model containing physical states is first represented. A compatible discrete configuration of the thermal domain in line with the elastic domain is then generated through the enhancement of the configuration of the conventional thermal element. The presented simulation results of a sample structure indicate that the suggested conductive model can cover a wide range of dynamic behavior of the thermal domain.

Keywords: Multi-physical domain, conduction model, port-based modeling, dynamic interaction, physical modeling.

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Authors: Nurnadiah Z., Lazim A.

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The design of weight is one of the important parts in fuzzy decision making, as it would have a deep effect on the evaluation results. Entropy is one of the weight measure based on objective evaluation. Non--probabilistic-type entropy measures for fuzzy set and interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FS) have been developed and applied to weight measure. Since the entropy for (IT2FS) for decision making yet to be explored, this paper proposes a new objective weight method by using entropy weight method for multiple attribute decision making (MADM). This paper utilizes the nature of IT2FS concept in the evaluation process to assess the attribute weight based on the credibility of data. An example was presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the new method in decision making. The entropy measure of interval type-2 fuzzy sets yield flexible judgment and could be applied in decision making environment.

Keywords: Objective weight, entropy weight, multiple attributedecision making, type-2 fuzzy sets, interval type-2 fuzzy sets

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