Search results for: Chaotic time series

Authors: Suhas K, Sripadaraja K

Abstract:

This paper details few mechanical modeling and design issues of RF MEMS switches. We concentrate on an electrostatically actuated broad side series switch; surface micromachined with a crab leg membrane. The same results are extended to any complex structure. With available experimental data and fabrication results, we present the variation in dynamic performance and compliance of the switch with reference to few design issues, which we find are critical in deciding the dynamic behavior of the switch, without compromise on the RF characteristics. The optimization of pull in voltage, transient time and resonant frequency with regard to these critical design parameters are also presented.

Keywords: Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS), RadioFrequency MEMS, Modeling, Actuators

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1760

Authors: Bahr Eldin S. M, K. S. Rama Rao, N. Perumal

Abstract:

A generalized unified power quality conditioner (GUPQC) by using three single-phase three-level voltage source converters (VSCs) connected back-to-back through a common dc link is proposed in this paper as a new custom power device for a three-feeder distribution system. One of the converters is connected in shunt with one feeder for mitigation of current harmonics and reactive power compensation, while the other two VSCs are connected in series with the other two feeders to maintain the load voltage sinusoidal and at constant level. A new control scheme based on synchronous reference frame is proposed for series converters. The simulation analysis on compensation performance of GUPQC based on PSCAD/EMTDC is reported.

Keywords: Custom power device, generalized unified power quality conditioner, PSCAD/ETMDC, voltage source converter

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1870

Authors: Mojtaba Mahdavi, Mohamad Mahdavi, Maryam Yazdani

Abstract:

A heuristic conceptual model for to develop the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), especially in preventive strategy, has been explored during this paper. In most real cases which complicity of system obligates high degree of reliability, this model proposes a more appropriate reliability function between life time distribution based and another which is based on relevant Extreme Value (EV) distribution. A statistical and mathematical approach is used to estimate and verify these two distribution functions. Then best one is chosen just among them, whichever is more reliable. A numeric Industrial case study will be reviewed to represent the concepts of this paper, more clearly.

Keywords: Lifetime distribution, Reliability, Estimation, Extreme value, Improving model, Series, Parallel.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1480

Authors: Wei Lo, Ming-En Kuo

Abstract:

While to minimize the overall project cost is always one of the objectives of construction managers, to obtain the maximum economic return is definitely one the ultimate goals of the project investors. As there is a trade-off relationship between the project time and cost, and the project delivery time directly affects the timing of economic recovery of an investment project, to provide a method that can quantify the relationship between the project delivery time and cost, and identify the optimal delivery time to maximize economic return has always been the focus of researchers and industrial practitioners. Using genetic algorithms, this study introduces an optimization model that can quantify the relationship between the project delivery time and cost and furthermore, determine the optimal delivery time to maximize the economic return of the project. The results provide objective quantification for accurately evaluating the project delivery time and cost, and facilitate the analysis of the economic return of a project.

Keywords: Time-Cost Trade-Off, Genetic Algorithms, Resource Integration, Economic return.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1774

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle, Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecasting, Neuro-Fuzzy, Smoothing transition, Time-series

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1630

Authors: Changhong Guo, Shaomei Fang, Yong He

Abstract:

In this paper, fractional Black-Scholes models for the European option pricing were established based on the fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm), which generalizes the concepts of the classical Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion and the G-Brownian motion, and that can be used to be a tool for considering the long range dependence and uncertain volatility for the financial markets simultaneously. A generalized fractional Black-Scholes equation (FBSE) was derived by using the Taylor’s series of fractional order and the theory of absence of arbitrage. Finally, some explicit option pricing formulas for the European call option and put option under the FBSE were also solved, which extended the classical option pricing formulas given by F. Black and M. Scholes.

Keywords: European option pricing, fractional Black-Scholes equations, fractional G-Brownian motion, Taylor’s series of fractional order, uncertain volatility.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 858

Authors: Sunitha. S.L., V. Udayashankara

Abstract:

Background noise is particularly damaging to speech intelligibility for people with hearing loss especially for sensorineural loss patients. Several investigations on speech intelligibility have demonstrated sensorineural loss patients need 5-15 dB higher SNR than the normal hearing subjects. This paper describes Discrete Cosine Transform Power Normalized Least Mean Square algorithm to improve the SNR and to reduce the convergence rate of the LMS for Sensory neural loss patients. Since it requires only real arithmetic, it establishes the faster convergence rate as compare to time domain LMS and also this transformation improves the eigenvalue distribution of the input autocorrelation matrix of the LMS filter. The DCT has good ortho-normal, separable, and energy compaction property. Although the DCT does not separate frequencies, it is a powerful signal decorrelator. It is a real valued function and thus can be effectively used in real-time operation. The advantages of DCT-LMS as compared to standard LMS algorithm are shown via SNR and eigenvalue ratio computations. . Exploiting the symmetry of the basis functions, the DCT transform matrix [AN] can be factored into a series of ±1 butterflies and rotation angles. This factorization results in one of the fastest DCT implementation. There are different ways to obtain factorizations. This work uses the fast factored DCT algorithm developed by Chen and company. The computer simulations results show superior convergence characteristics of the proposed algorithm by improving the SNR at least 10 dB for input SNR less than and equal to 0 dB, faster convergence speed and better time and frequency characteristics.

Keywords: Hearing Impairment, DCT Adaptive filter, Sensorineural loss patients, Convergence rate.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2171

Authors: Rusliza Ahmad, Harun Budin

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of time delay on stability of mutualism population model with limited resources for both species. First, the stability of the model without time delay is analyzed. The model is then improved by considering a time delay in the mechanism of the growth rate of the population. We analyze the effect of time delay on the stability of the stable equilibrium point. Result showed that the time delay can induce instability of the stable equilibrium point, bifurcation and stability switches.

Keywords: Bifurcation, Delay margin, Mutualism population model, Time delay

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1984

Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

Abstract:

Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: Climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 906

Authors: Elsheikh Asser

Abstract:

Time and cost are the main goals of the construction project management. The first schedule developed may not be a suitable schedule for beginning or completing the project to achieve the target completion time at a minimum total cost. In general, there are trade-offs between time and cost (TCT) to complete the activities of a project. This research presents genetic algorithms (GAs) multiobjective model for project scheduling considering different scenarios such as least cost, least time, and target time.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Time-cost trade-off.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2327

Authors: Mamta Agrawal, Neeru Adlakha, K.R. Pardasani

Abstract:

An attempt has been made to develop a seminumerical model to study temperature variations in dermal layers of human limbs. The model has been developed for two dimensional steady state case. The human limb has been assumed to have elliptical cross section. The dermal region has been divided into three natural layers namely epidermis, dermis and subdermal tissues. The model incorporates the effect of important physiological parameters like blood mass flow rate, metabolic heat generation, and thermal conductivity of the tissues. The outer surface of the limb is exposed to the environment and it is assumed that heat loss takes place at the outer surface by conduction, convection, radiation, and evaporation. The temperature of inner core of the limb also varies at the lower atmospheric temperature. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed based on the physical conditions of the problem. Cubic splines approach has been employed along radial direction and Fourier series along angular direction to obtain the solution. The numerical results have been computed for different values of eccentricity resembling with the elliptic cross section of the human limbs. The numerical results have been used to obtain the temperature profile and to study the relationships among the various physiological parameters.

Keywords: Blood Mass Flow Rate, Metabolic Heat Generation, Fourier Series, Cubic splines and Thermal Conductivity.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1800

Authors: Hiba Hasan, Khalid Raza

Abstract:

Reverse engineering of genetic regulatory network involves the modeling of the given gene expression data into a form of the network. Computationally it is possible to have the relationships between genes, so called gene regulatory networks (GRNs), that can help to find the genomics and proteomics based diagnostic approach for any disease. In this paper, clustering based method has been used to reconstruct genetic regulatory network from time series gene expression data. Supercoiled data set from Escherichia coli has been taken to demonstrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Gene expression, gene regulatory networks (GRNs), clustering, data preprocessing, network visualization.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2152

Authors: T. Hussain, M. W. Siddiqi, A. Iqbal

Abstract:

The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there is short and long run causal relation between growth and unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as explanatory variables.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Unemployment, Cointegrationand Causality.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3176

Authors: M. Salman, B. Budiardjo, K. Ramli

Abstract:

Nowadays wireless technology plays an important role in public and personal communication. However, the growth of wireless networking has confused the traditional boundaries between trusted and untrusted networks. Wireless networks are subject to a variety of threats and attacks at present. An attacker has the ability to listen to all network traffic which becoming a potential intrusion. Intrusion of any kind may lead to a chaotic condition. In addition, improperly configured access points also contribute the risk to wireless network. To overcome this issue, a security solution that includes an intrusion detection and prevention system need to be implemented. In this paper, first the security drawbacks of wireless network will be analyzed then investigate the characteristics and also the limitations on current wireless intrusion detection and prevention system. Finally, the requirement of next wireless intrusion prevention system will be identified including some key issues which should be focused on in the future to overcomes those limitations.

Keywords: intrusion detection, intrusion prevention, wireless networks, proactive protection

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3938

Authors: Le Linh, Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Le Hieu Giang

Abstract:

In this work, the IMC-PID controller cascaded filter based on Internal Model Control (IMC) scheme is systematically proposed for the simplified decoupling control system. The simplified decoupling is firstly introduced for multivariable processes by using coefficient matching to obtain a stable, proper, and causal simplified decoupler. Accordingly, transfer functions of decoupled apparent processes can be expressed as a set of n equivalent independent processes and then derived as a ratio of the original open-loop transfer function to the diagonal element of the dynamic relative gain array. The IMC-PID controller in series with filter is then directly employed to enhance the overall performance of the decoupling control system while avoiding difficulties arising from properties inherent to simplified decoupling. Some simulation studies are considered to demonstrate the simplicity and effectiveness of the proposed method. Simulations were conducted by tuning various controllers of the multivariate processes with multiple time delays. The results indicate that the proposed method consistently performs well with fast and well-balanced closed-loop time responses.

Keywords: Coefficient matching method, internal model control scheme, PID controller cascaded filter, simplified decoupler.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1483

Authors: Pearl Goswell, Jun Jo

Abstract:

Creating3D environments, including characters and cities, is a significantly time consuming process due to a large amount of workinvolved in designing and modelling.There have been a number of attempts to automatically generate 3D objects employing shape grammars. However it is still too early to apply the mechanism to real problems such as real-time computer games.The purpose of this research is to introduce a time efficient and cost effective method to automatically generatevarious 3D objects for real-time 3D games. This Shape grammar-based real-time City Generation (RCG) model is a conceptual model for generating 3Denvironments in real-time and can be applied to 3D gamesoranimations. The RCG system can generate even a large cityby applying fundamental principles of shape grammars to building elementsin various levels of detailin real-time.

Keywords: real-time city generation, shape grammars, 3D games, 3D modelling.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2326

Authors: M. Shahar Yar, M. Mustaqeem Abdullah, Jaseela Majeed

Abstract:

A series of 1-(1H-benzimidazol-2-yl)-3-(substituted phenyl)-2-propen-1-one were allowed to react with hydrazine hydrate and phenyl hydrazine in submitted reactions to get pyrazoline and phenyl pyrazoline derivatives. All the compounds entered for screening at the Tuberculosis Antimicrobial Acquisition and Coordinating Facility (TAACF) for their in vitro antibacterial activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv strain (ATCC 27294) using Microplate Alamar Blue Assay (MABA) susceptibility test. The results expressed as MIC (minimum inhibitory concentration) in μg/mL. Among the fifteen compounds, eight compounds were found to have MIC values less than 10 μg/mL. These were subjected for cytotoxicity assay in VERO cells to determine CC50 (cytotoxic concentration 50%) values and finally SI (Selectivity Index) were calculated. Compound (XV) 2-[5-(4- fluorophenyl)-1-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-3-pyrazolyl]-1Hbenzimidazole was considered the best candidate of the series that could be a good starting point to develop new lead compounds in the fight against tuberculosis.

Keywords: anti-tubercular activity, benzimidazole, pyrazoline.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1898

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

Abstract:

Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Decision tree modeling, Forecasting, Humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3307

Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

Abstract:

In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: Economic growth, external debt, time series analysis, Turkish economy.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2226

Authors: Mohamed M. Mousa, Aidarkhan Kaltayev Shahwar F. Ragab

Abstract:

In this paper, a new dependable algorithm based on an adaptation of the standard variational iteration method (VIM) is used for analyzing the transition from steady convection to chaos for lowto-intermediate Rayleigh numbers convection in porous media. The solution trajectories show the transition from steady convection to chaos that occurs at a slightly subcritical value of Rayleigh number, the critical value being associated with the loss of linear stability of the steady convection solution. The VIM is treated as an algorithm in a sequence of intervals for finding accurate approximate solutions to the considered model and other dynamical systems. We shall call this technique as the piecewise VIM. Numerical comparisons between the piecewise VIM and the classical fourth-order Runge–Kutta (RK4) numerical solutions reveal that the proposed technique is a promising tool for the nonlinear chaotic and nonchaotic systems.

Keywords: Variational iteration method, free convection, Chaos, Lorenz equations.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1535

Authors: J. Kala, V. Salajka, P. Hradil

Abstract:

The main focus of this paper is on the human induced forces. Almost all existing force models for this type of load (defined either in the time or frequency domain) are developed from the assumption of perfect periodicity of the force and are based on force measurements conducted on rigid (i.e. high frequency) surfaces. To verify the different authors conclusions the vertical pressure measurements invoked during the walking was performed, using pressure gauges in various configurations. The obtained forces are analyzed using Fourier transformation. This load is often decisive in the design of footbridges. Design criteria and load models proposed by widely used standards and other researchers were introduced and a comparison was made.

Keywords: Pedestrian action, Experimental analysis, Fourier series, serviceability, cycle loading.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2452

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1777

Authors: Naimi Abdelhamid, Othmane Abdelkhalek

Abstract:

With the current rise in the demand of electrical energy, present-day power systems which are large and complex, will continue to grow in both size and complexity. Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controllers provide new facilities, both in steady state power flow control and dynamic stability control. Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor (TCSC) is one of FACTS equipment, which is used for power flow control of active power in electric power system and for increase of capacities of transmission lines. In this paper, a Backstepping Power Flow Controller (BPFC) for TCSC in multimachine power system is developed and tested. The simulation results show that the TCSC proposed controller is capable of controlling the transmitted active power and improving the transient stability when compared with conventional PI Power Flow Controller (PIPFC).

Keywords: FACTS, Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor (TCSC), Backstepping, BPFC, PIPFC.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1795

Authors: Qinghua Zhang, Yanhe Zhu, Xiang Zhao, Yeqin Yang, Hongwei Jing, Guoan Zhang, Jie Zhao

Abstract:

This paper presents a wearable reconfigurable supernumerary robotic limb with differential actuated joints, which is lightweight, compact and comfortable for the wearers. Compared to the existing supernumerary robotic limbs which mostly adopted series structure with large movement space but poor carrying capacity, a prototype with the series-parallel configuration to better adapt to different task requirements has been developed in this design. To achieve a compact structure, two kinds of cable-driven mechanical structures based on guide pulleys and differential actuated joints were designed. Moreover, two different tension devices were also designed to ensure the reliability and accuracy of the cable-driven transmission. The proposed device also employed self-designed bearings which greatly simplified the structure and reduced the cost.

Keywords: Cable-driven, differential actuated joints, reconfigurable, supernumerary robotic limb.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1012

Authors: Thanaa Abdel Moghny, Mohamed Keshawy, Mahmoud Fathy, Abdul-Raheim M. Abdul-Raheim, Khalid I. Kabel, Ahmed F. El-Kafrawy, Mahmoud Ahmed Mousa, Ahmed E. Awadallah

Abstract:

Ecological pollution is of great concern for human health and the environment. Numerous organic and inorganic pollutants usually discharged into the water caused carcinogenic or toxic effect for human and different life form. In this respect, this work aims to treat water contaminated by organic and inorganic waste using sorbent based on polystyrene. Therefore, two different series of adsorbent material were prepared; the first one included the preparation of polymeric sorbent from the reaction of styrene acrylate ester and alkyl acrylate. The second series involved syntheses of composite ion exchange resins of waste polystyrene and   amorphous carbon thin film (WPS/ACTF) by solvent evaporation using micro emulsion polymerization. The produced ACTF/WPS nanocomposite was sulfonated to produce cation exchange resins ACTF/WPSS nanocomposite. The sorbents of the first series were characterized using FTIR, ¹H NMR, and gel permeation chromatography. The thermal properties of the cross-linked sorbents were investigated using thermogravimetric analysis, and the morphology was characterized by scanning electron microscope (SEM). The removal of organic pollutant was determined through absorption tests in a various organic solvent. The chemical and crystalline structure of nanocomposite of second series has been proven by studies of FTIR spectrum, X-rays, thermal analysis, SEM and TEM analysis to study morphology of resins and ACTF that assembled with polystyrene chain. It is found that the composite resins ACTF/WPSS are thermally stable and show higher chemical stability than ion exchange WPSS resins. The composite resin was evaluated for calcium hardness removal. The result is evident that the ACTF/WPSS composite has more prominent inorganic pollutant removal than WPSS resin. So, we recommend the using of nanocomposite resin as new potential applications for water treatment process.

Keywords: Nanocomposite, sorbent materials, waste water, waste polystyrene.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1407

Authors: Arun Kumar, Yousef L. A. Latif, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability distributions. The estimates of the parameters are used to calculate natural disaster forecasts. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Humanitarian logistics, relief agencies, probability distribution.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3514

Authors: Jixiang Zhang, Guocheng Wang

Abstract:

A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, Discrete dynamical system, Heterogeneous expectations, Nash equilibrium.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2599

Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

Abstract:

Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: Banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2124

Authors: José Carlos Rodríguez, Mario Gómez

Abstract:

This paper analyzes innovation trends in Latin America countries by means of the number of patent applications filed by residents and non residents during the period 1965 to 2012. Making use of patent data released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), we search for the presence of multiple structural changes in patent application series in Argentina, Brazil Chile, and Mexico. These changes may suggest that firms’ innovative activity has been modified as a result of implementing a particular science, technology and innovation (STI) policy. Accordingly, the new regulations implemented in these countries during 1980s and 1990s have influenced their intellectual property regimes. The question conducting this research is thus how STI policies in these countries have affected their innovation activity? The results achieved in this research confirm the existence of multiple structural changes in the series of patent applications resulting from STI policies implemented in these countries.

Keywords: Econometric methods, innovation activity, Latin America countries, patents, science, technology and innovation (STI) policy.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2214

Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman, K. Kadirgama, M.A. Maleque, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Conventionally the selection of parameters depends intensely on the operator-s experience or conservative technological data provided by the EDM equipment manufacturers that assign inconsistent machining performance. The parameter settings given by the manufacturers are only relevant with common steel grades. A single parameter change influences the process in a complex way. Hence, the present research proposes artificial neural network (ANN) models for the prediction of surface roughness on first commenced Ti-15-3 alloy in electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. The proposed models use peak current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage as input parameters. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) with three hidden layer feedforward networks are applied. An assessment is carried out with the models of distinct hidden layer. Training of the models is performed with data from an extensive series of experiments utilizing copper electrode as positive polarity. The predictions based on the above developed models have been verified with another set of experiments and are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Beside this they can be exercised as precious tools for the process planning for EDM.

Keywords: Ti-15l-3, surface roughness, copper, positive polarity, multi-layered perceptron.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1907