Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 31529
Decision Tree Modeling in Emergency Logistics Planning

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi


Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Decision tree modeling, Forecasting, Humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3061


[1] A. Kumar, Y. L. A. Latif, and F. Daver "Developing forecasting tool for humanitarian relief organizations in emergency logistics planning," World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology Journal, pp. 1687-1693November 2012.
[2] M. D. Petersen, A. D. Frankel, S. C. Harmsen, C. S. Mueller, K. M. Haller, R. L. Wheeler, et al., "Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps: U.S. Geological Survey," USGS 2008.
[3] D. Kemball-Cook and R. Stephenson, "Lessons in logistics from Somalia," Disasters, vol. 8, pp. 57-66, Mar 1984.
[4] S. A. Ardekani and A. G. Hobeika, "Logistics Problems in the Aftermath of the 1985 Mexico City Earthquake," Transportation Quarterly, vol. 42, pp. 107-124, 1988.
[5] B.-T. Aharon, C. Byung Do, M. Supreet Reddy, and Y. Tao, "Robust optimization for emergency logistics planning: Risk mitigation in humanitarian relief supply chains," Transportation research part B: methodological, vol. 45, pp. 1177-1189, 2011.
[6] P. Tatham and G. Kovács, "The application of "swift trust” to humanitarian logistics," International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 126, pp. 35-45, 7// 2010.
[7] M.-S. Chang, C.-F. Hsueh, and S.-R. Chen, "Real-time vehicle routing problem with time windows and simultaneous delivery/pickup demands," Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, vol. 5, pp. 2273-2286, 2003.
[8] L. Özdamar, E. Ekinci, and B. Küçükyazici, "Emergency Logistics Planning in Natural Disasters," Annals of Operations Research, vol. 129, pp. 217-245, 2004/07/01 2004.
[9] W. Yi and L. Özdamar, "A dynamic logistics coordination model for evacuation and support in disaster response activities," European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 179, pp. 1177-1193, 6/16/ 2007.
[10] W. Yi and A. Kumar, "Ant colony optimization for disaster relief operations," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, vol. 43, pp. 660-672, 11// 2007.
[11] B. Balcik and B. M. Beamon, "{Facility location in humanitarian relief}," International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, vol. 11, pp. 101-121, // 2008.
[12] M. Jahre, "Researcher project: HUMLOG-NET – Humanitarian Logistics Networks," Norway, 2008.
[13] A. S. Thomas and L. R. Kopczak, "From logistics to supply chain management: The path forward in the humanitarian sector," Fritz Institute, 2005.
[14] B. M. Beamon and S. A. Kotleba, "Inventory modelling for complex emergencies in humanitarian relief operations," International Journal of Logistics: Research and Applications, vol. 9, pp. 1-18, // 2006.
[15] N. Altay and W. G. Green III, "OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research vol. 175 pp. 475-493, 2006.
[16] G. Kovacs and K. M. Spens, "Humanitarian logistics in disaster relief operations. In Jahre, Marianne (ed.): Logistics in the New Valley," CD-ROM Proceedings of the 18th Annual Conference for Nordic Researchers in Logistics, NOFOMA , Oslo, Norway, 2006.
[17] A. Thomas, "Why logistics? ," Forced Migration Review, vol. 18, p. 4, 2003.
[18] R. Oloruntoba and R. Gray, Suppl Chain Manage., vol. 11, p. 115, 2006.
[19] L. N. V. Wassenhove, "Humanitarian aid logistics: supply chain management in high gear†," Journal of the Operational Research Society, vol. 57, pp. 475-489, 2005.
[20] B. M. Beamon, "Humanitarian relief chains: issues and challenges," in Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Computers and Industrial Engineering, 2004, pp. 77-82.
[21] A. S. Thomas, "Humanitarian Logistics: Enabling Disaster Response," Fritz Institute, 2007.
[22] Y. Ye and N. Liu, "A Bayesian Group-Information-Updated sequential approach for humanitarian logistics planning in natural disasters," Institution of Logistics and Decision Optimization, School of Management, Zhejiang University, China, 2011.
[23] S. Doocy, A. Sirois, J. Anderson, M. Tileva, E. Biermann, J. D. Storey, et al., "Food security and humanitarian assistance among displaced Iraqi populations in Jordan and Syria," Soc Sci Med, vol. 72, pp. 273-82, Jan 2011.
[24] E. J. Lodree and Jr, "Pre-storm emergency supplies inventory planning," Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, vol. 1, pp. 50-77, 2011.
[25] J. Zhang, N. Mou, and M. He, "Research of the Supply Chain System Reliability Based on the Markov Process," in Logistics, ed, 2008, pp. 1276-1281.
[26] J.-m. Cai and X.-m. Li, "The possibility go methodology; analysis of transportation network reliability for emergency logistics under earthquake disasters," in Emergency Management and Management Sciences (ICEMMS), 2011 2nd IEEE International Conference on, 2011, pp. 274-277.
[27] Y. M. Zhang, "Reliability analysis of the emergency logistics supply chain," Applied Mechanics and Materials, vol. 170-173, pp. 101-105, 2012.
[28] J. M. Day, S. A. Melnyk, P. D. Larson, E. W. Davis, and D. C. Whybark, "Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Supply Chains: A Matter of Life and Death," Journal of Supply Chain Management, vol. 48, pp. 21-36, 2012.
[29] G. Kovács and K. Spens, "Identifying challenges in humanitarian logistics," International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, vol. 39, pp. 506-528, 2009.
[30] J. Knight and R. Piltz, "Federal Disaster Budgeting:Are We Weather Ready?," Climate Science Watch, August 5 2011.
[31] D. Guha-Sapir, F. Vos, R. Below, and S. Ponserre, "Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2011, The numbers and trends, CRED, IRSS," Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, 2011.