Search results for: codebook model

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: Housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error.

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Authors: H. M. Usman Sani, Shafaat A. Bazaz, Nisar Ahmed

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In this paper, Fabless Prototyping Methodology is introduced for the design and analysis of MEMS devices. Conventionally Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is performed before system level simulation. In our proposed methodology, system level simulation is performed earlier than FEA as it is computationally less extensive and low cost. System level simulations are based on equivalent behavioral models of MEMS device. Electrostatic actuation based MEMS Microgripper is chosen as case study to implement this methodology. This paper addresses the behavioral model development and simulation of actuator part of an electrostatically actuated Microgripper. Simulation results show that the actuator part of Microgripper works efficiently for a voltage range of 0-45V with the corresponding jaw displacement of 0-4.5425μm. With some minor changes in design, this range can be enhanced to 15μm at 85V.

Keywords: MEMS Actuator, Behavioral Model, CoventorWare, Microgripper, SOIMUMPs, System Level Simulation

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Authors: Hyojin Lim, Cuong Nguyen Khac, Ho-Youl Jung

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In this paper, we propose moving object detection method which is helpful for driver to safely take his/her car out of parking lot. When moving objects such as motorbikes, pedestrians, the other cars and some obstacles are detected at the rear-side of host vehicle, the proposed algorithm can provide to driver warning. We assume that the host vehicle is just before departure. Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based background subtraction is basically applied. Pre-processing such as smoothing and post-processing as morphological filtering are added. We examine “which color space has better performance for detection of moving objects?” Three color spaces including RGB, YCbCr, and Y are applied and compared, in terms of detection rate. Through simulation, we prove that RGB space is more suitable for moving object detection based on background subtraction.

Keywords: Gaussian mixture model, background subtraction, Moving object detection, color space, morphological filtering.

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Authors: Kh. Ashrafi, Gh. A. Hoshyaripour

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Atmospheric stability plays the most important role in the transport and dispersion of air pollutants. Different methods are used for stability determination with varying degrees of complexity. Most of these methods are based on the relative magnitude of convective and mechanical turbulence in atmospheric motions. Richardson number, Monin-Obukhov length, Pasquill-Gifford stability classification and Pasquill–Turner stability classification, are the most common parameters and methods. The Pasquill–Turner Method (PTM), which is employed in this study, makes use of observations of wind speed, insolation and the time of day to classify atmospheric stability with distinguishable indices. In this study, a model is presented to determination of atmospheric stability conditions using PTM. As a case study, meteorological data of Mehrabad station in Tehran from 2000 to 2005 is applied to model. Here, three different categories are considered to deduce the pattern of stability conditions. First, the total pattern of stability classification is obtained and results show that atmosphere is 38.77%, 27.26%, 33.97%, at stable, neutral and unstable condition, respectively. It is also observed that days are mostly unstable (66.50%) while nights are mostly stable (72.55%). Second, monthly and seasonal patterns are derived and results indicate that relative frequency of stable conditions decrease during January to June and increase during June to December, while results for unstable conditions are exactly in opposite manner. Autumn is the most stable season with relative frequency of 50.69% for stable condition, whilst, it is 42.79%, 34.38% and 27.08% for winter, summer and spring, respectively. Hourly stability pattern is the third category that points out that unstable condition is dominant from approximately 03-15 GTM and 04-12 GTM for warm and cold seasons, respectively. Finally, correlation between atmospheric stability and CO concentration is achieved.

Keywords: Atmospheric stability, Pasquill-Turner classification, convective turbulence, mechanical turbulence, Tehran.

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Authors: Mohammed S. Al-Ansari

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This paper presents an analytical model to estimate the cost of an optimized design of reinforced concrete isolated footing base on structural safety. Flexural and optimized formulas for square and rectangular footingare derived base on ACI building code of design, material cost and optimization. The optimization constraints consist of upper and lower limits of depth and area of steel. Footing depth and area of reinforcing steel are to be minimized to yield the optimal footing dimensions. Optimized footing materials cost of concrete, reinforcing steel and formwork of the designed sections are computed. Total cost factor TCF and other cost factors are developed to generalize and simplify the calculations of footing material cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the model capability of estimating the material cost of the footing for a desired axial load.

Keywords: Footing, Depth, Concrete, Steel, Formwork, Optimization, Material cost, Cost Factors.

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Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal

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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.

Keywords: Clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, optimization, mathematical modeling, penalty minimization.

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Authors: Sylvain Amailland, Jean-Hugh Thomas, Charles Pézerat, Romuald Boucheron, Jean-Claude Pascal

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The noise requirements for naval and research vessels have seen an increasing demand for quieter ships in order to fulfil current regulations and to reduce the effects on marine life. Hence, new methods dedicated to the characterization of propeller noise, which is the main source of noise in the far-field, are needed. The study of cavitating propellers in closed-section is interesting for analyzing hydrodynamic performance but could involve significant difficulties for hydroacoustic study, especially due to reverberation and boundary layer noise in the tunnel. The aim of this paper is to present a numerical methodology for the identification of hydroacoustic sources on marine propellers using hydrophone arrays in a large hydrodynamic tunnel. The main difficulties are linked to the reverberation of the tunnel and the boundary layer noise that strongly reduce the signal-to-noise ratio. In this paper it is proposed to estimate the reflection coefficients using an inverse method and some reference transfer functions measured in the tunnel. This approach allows to reduce the uncertainties of the propagation model used in the inverse problem. In order to reduce the boundary layer noise, a cleaning algorithm taking advantage of the low rank and sparse structure of the cross-spectrum matrices of the acoustic and the boundary layer noise is presented. This approach allows to recover the acoustic signal even well under the boundary layer noise. The improvement brought by this method is visible on acoustic maps resulting from beamforming and DAMAS algorithms.

Keywords: Acoustic imaging, boundary layer noise denoising, inverse problems, model adaptation.

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Authors: J. Menčík, B. Culek, Jr., L. Beran, J. Mareš

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Large metal and concrete structures suffer by various kinds of deterioration, and accurate prediction of the remaining life is important. This paper informs about two methods for its assessment. One method, suitable for steel bridges and other constructions exposed to fatigue, monitors the loads and damage accumulation using information systems for the operation and the finite element model of the construction. In addition to the operation load, the dead weight of the construction and thermal stresses can be included into the model. The second method is suitable for concrete bridges and other structures, which suffer by carbonatation and other degradation processes, driven by diffusion. The diffusion constant, important for the prediction of future development, can be determined from the depth-profile of pH, obtained by pH measurement at various depths. Comparison with measurements on real objects illustrates the suitability of both methods.

Keywords: Bridges, carbonatation, concrete, diagnostics, fatigue, life prediction, monitoring, railway, simulation, structures.

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Authors: Debesh R. Roy

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The fundamental issue in understanding the origin and growth mechanism of nanomaterials, from a fundamental unit is a big challenging problem to the scientists. Recently, an immense attention is generated to the researchers for prediction of exceptionally stable atomic cluster units as the building units for future smart materials. The present study is a systematic investigation on the stability and electronic properties of a series of bimetallic (semiconductor-alkaline earth) clusters, viz., BxMg3 (x=1-5) is performed, in search for exceptional and/ or unusual stable motifs. A very popular hybrid exchange-correlation functional, B3LYP along with a higher basis set, viz., 6-31+G[d,p] is employed for this purpose under the density functional formalism. The magic stability among the concerned clusters is explained using the jellium model. It is evident from the present study that the magic stability of B4Mg3 cluster arises due to the jellium shell closure.

Keywords: Atomic Clusters, Density Functional Theory, Jellium Model, Magic Clusters, Smart Nanomaterials.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Kangavari, Samira Ghandchi, Manak Golpour

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Question answering (QA) aims at retrieving precise information from a large collection of documents. Most of the Question Answering systems composed of three main modules: question processing, document processing and answer processing. Question processing module plays an important role in QA systems to reformulate questions. Moreover answer processing module is an emerging topic in QA systems, where these systems are often required to rank and validate candidate answers. These techniques aiming at finding short and precise answers are often based on the semantic relations and co-occurrence keywords. This paper discussed about a new model for question answering which improved two main modules, question processing and answer processing which both affect on the evaluation of the system operations. There are two important components which are the bases of the question processing. First component is question classification that specifies types of question and answer. Second one is reformulation which converts the user's question into an understandable question by QA system in a specific domain. The objective of an Answer Validation task is thus to judge the correctness of an answer returned by a QA system, according to the text snippet given to support it. For validating answers we apply candidate answer filtering, candidate answer ranking and also it has a final validation section by user voting. Also this paper described new architecture of question and answer processing modules with modeling, implementing and evaluating the system. The system differs from most question answering systems in its answer validation model. This module makes it more suitable to find exact answer. Results show that, from total 50 asked questions, evaluation of the model, show 92% improving the decision of the system.

Keywords: Answer processing, answer validation, classification, question answering, query reformulation.

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Authors: A. M. El Ansary, A. A. El Damatty, A. O. Nassef

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The aim of the current study is to develop a numerical tool that is capable of achieving an optimum shape and design of hyperbolic cooling towers based on coupling a non-linear finite element model developed in-house and a genetic algorithm optimization technique. The objective function is set to be the minimum weight of the tower. The geometric modeling of the tower is represented by means of B-spline curves. The finite element method is applied to model the elastic buckling behaviour of a tower subjected to wind pressure and dead load. The study is divided into two main parts. The first part investigates the optimum shape of the tower corresponding to minimum weight assuming constant thickness. The study is extended in the second part by introducing the shell thickness as one of the design variables in order to achieve an optimum shape and design. Design, functionality and practicality constraints are applied.

Keywords: B-splines, Cooling towers, Finite element, Genetic algorithm, Optimization

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Authors: Jeng-Wen Lin, Simon Chien-Yuan Chen

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Based on assumptions of neo-classical economics and rational choice / public choice theory, this paper investigates the regulation of industrial land use in Taiwan by homeowners associations (HOAs) as opposed to traditional government administration. The comparison, which applies the transaction cost theory and a polynomial regression analysis, manifested that HOAs are superior to conventional government administration in terms of transaction costs and overall efficiency. A case study that compares Taiwan-s commonhold industrial park, NangKang Software Park, to traditional government counterparts using limited data on the costs and returns was analyzed. This empirical study on the relative efficiency of governmental and private institutions justified the important theoretical proposition. Numerical results prove the efficiency of the established model.

Keywords: Homeowners Associations, Institutional Efficiency, Polynomial Regression, Transaction Cost.

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Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support operational decisions in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). This problem is called “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of review of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a mission. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the travelling time and to free-up the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs also considering the expected time performance in the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to compare different hospital selection policies. The model was implemented with the AnyLogic software and finally validated on a realistic case. The hospital selection policy that returned the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, based on a retrospective estimation of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, focused on a predictive estimation of the TTP which is determined with a constantly updated Winters forecasting model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP is the best hospital selection policy. It allows to significantly reducing service throughput times in the ED with a negligible increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms on TTP estimation, than a retrospective approach. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: Emergency medical services, hospital selection, discrete event simulation, forecast model.

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Authors: S. Parida, S. C. Mohanty

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The free vibration behavior of thick pretwisted cantilevered functionally graded material (FGM) plate subjected to the thermal environment is investigated numerically in the present paper. A mathematical model is developed in the framework of higher order shear deformation theory (HOST) with C⁰ finite element formulation i.e. independent displacement and rotations. The material properties are assumed to be temperature dependent and vary continuously through the thickness based on the volume fraction exponent in simple power rule. The finite element model has been discretized into eight node quadratic serendipity elements with node wise seven degrees of freedom. The effect of plate geometry, temperature field, material composition, and the modal analysis on the vibrational characteristics is examined. Finally, the results are verified by comparing with those available in literature.

Keywords: FGM, pretwisted plate, thermal environment, HOST, simple power law.

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Authors: V. Lakshmi Narasimhan, Bayu Hendradjaya

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We have defined two suites of metrics, which cover static and dynamic aspects of component assembly. The static metrics measure complexity and criticality of component assembly, wherein complexity is measured using Component Packing Density and Component Interaction Density metrics. Further, four criticality conditions namely, Link, Bridge, Inheritance and Size criticalities have been identified and quantified. The complexity and criticality metrics are combined to form a Triangular Metric, which can be used to classify the type and nature of applications. Dynamic metrics are collected during the runtime of a complete application. Dynamic metrics are useful to identify super-component and to evaluate the degree of utilisation of various components. In this paper both static and dynamic metrics are evaluated using Weyuker-s set of properties. The result shows that the metrics provide a valid means to measure issues in component assembly. We relate our metrics suite with McCall-s Quality Model and illustrate their impact on product quality and to the management of component-based product development.

Keywords: Component Assembly, Component Based SoftwareEngineering, CORBA Component Model, Software ComponentMetrics.

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Authors: Kumara Jayapathma J. H. M. S. S., Dampegama S. D. P. J.

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Lands are valuable & limited resource which constantly changes with the growth of the population. An efficient and good land management system is essential to avoid conflicts associated with lands. This paper aims to design the prototype model of a Mobile GIS Land use and Land Information System in real-time. Homagama Divisional Secretariat Division situated in the western province of Sri Lanka was selected as the study area. The prototype model was developed after reviewing related literature. The methodology was consisted of designing and modeling the prototype model into an application running on a mobile platform. The system architecture mainly consists of a Google mapping app for real-time updates with firebase support tools. Thereby, the method of implementation consists of front-end and back-end components. Software tools used in designing applications are Android Studio with JAVA based on GeoJSON File structure. Android Studio with JAVA in GeoJSON File Synchronize to Firebase was found to be the perfect mobile solution for continuously updating Land use and Land Information System (LIS) in real-time in the present scenario. The mobile-based land use and LIS developed in this study are multiple user applications catering to different hierarchy levels such as basic users, supervisory managers, and database administrators. The benefits of this mobile mapping application will help public sector field officers with non-GIS expertise to overcome the land use planning challenges with land use updated in real-time.

Keywords: Android, Firebase, GeoJSON, GIS, JAVA, JSON, LIS, mobile GIS, real-time, REST API.

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Authors: Bostjan Antoncic

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Technological newness and innovativeness are important aspects of small firm development, growth and wealth creation. The contribution of the study to entrepreneurship personality research and to technology-related research in entrepreneurship is that the model of the general personality driven technological development was developed and empirically tested. Hypotheses relating the big five personality factors (OCEAN: openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) and technological developments were tested by using multiple regression analysis on survey data from a sample of 160 entrepreneurs from Slovenia. The model reveals two personality factors, which are predictive of technological developments: openness (positive impact) and neuroticism (negative impact). In addition, a positive impact of firm age on technological developments was found. Other personality factors (conscientiousness, extraversion and agreeableness) of entrepreneurs may not be considered important for their firm technological developments.

Keywords: Big five factors, entrepreneur, personality, technology development.

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Igor Astrov, Andrus Pedai, Boris Gordon

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This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the control of autonomous vertical flight for tactical unmanned aerial vehicle (TUAV). With the SA strategy, we proposed a two stage flight control procedure using two autonomous control subsystems to address the dynamics variation and performance requirement difference in initial and final stages of flight trajectory for an unmanned helicopter model with coaxial rotor and ducted fan configuration. This control strategy for chosen model of TUAV has been verified by simulation of hovering maneuvers using software package Simulink and demonstrated good performance for fast stabilization of engines in hovering, consequently, fast SA with economy in energy can be asserted during search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Coaxial rotors, ducted fan, NARMA-L2 neurocontroller, situational awareness, tactical unmanned aerial vehicle.

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Authors: Jamaliah Mohd. Yusof, Rosidah Musa, Sofiah Abd. Rahman

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With previous studies that examined the importance of functional store image and CSR, this study is aimed at examining their effects in the self-congruity model in influencing store loyalty. In particular, this study developed and tested a structural model in the context of retailing industry on the self-congruity theory. Whilst much of the self-congruity studies have incorporated functional store image, there has been lack of studies that examined social responsibility image of retail stores in the self-congruity studies. Findings indicate that self-congruity influence on store loyalty was mediated by both functional store image and social responsibility image. In influencing store loyalty, the findings have shown that social responsibility image has a stronger influence on store loyalty than functional store image. This study offers important findings and implications for future research as it presents a new framework on the importance of social responsibility image.

Keywords: Self-congruity, functional store image, social responsibility image, store loyalty

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Authors: Z. Hormozi Moghaddam, M. Mokhtari-Dizaji, M. Movahedin, M. E. Ravari

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Mechanical index (MI) is used for quantifying acoustic cavitation and the relationship between acoustic pressure and the frequency. In this study, modeling of the MI was applied to provide treatment protocol and to understand the effective physical processes on reproducibility of stem cells. The acoustic pressure and MI equations are modeled and solved to estimate optimal MI for 28, 40, 150 kHz and 1 MHz frequencies. Radial and axial acoustic pressure distribution was extracted. To validate the results of the modeling, the acoustic pressure in the water and near field depth was measured by a piston hydrophone. Results of modeling and experiments show that the model is consistent well to experimental results with 0.91 and 0.90 correlation of coefficient (p<0.05) for 1 MHz and 40 kHz. Low intensity ultrasound with 0.40 MI is more effective on the proliferation rate of the spermatogonial stem cells during the seven days of culture, in contrast, high MI has a harmful effect on the spermatogonial stem cells. This model provides proper treatment planning in vitro and in vivo by estimating the cavitation phenomenon.

Keywords: Ultrasound, mechanical index, modeling, stem cell.

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Authors: Jixiang Zhang, Guocheng Wang

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A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, Discrete dynamical system, Heterogeneous expectations, Nash equilibrium.

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Authors: Z. Dibi, F. Djeffal, N. Lakhdar

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In this paper, we have developed an explicit analytical drain current model comprising surface channel potential and threshold voltage in order to explain the advantages of the proposed Gate Stack Double Diffusion (GSDD) MOSFET design over the conventional MOSFET with the same geometric specifications that allow us to use the benefits of the incorporation of the high-k layer between the oxide layer and gate metal aspect on the immunity of the proposed design against the self-heating effects. In order to show the efficiency of our proposed structure, we propose the simulation of the power chopper circuit. The use of the proposed structure to design a power chopper circuit has showed that the (GSDD) MOSFET can improve the working of the circuit in terms of power dissipation and self-heating effect immunity. The results so obtained are in close proximity with the 2D simulated results thus confirming the validity of the proposed model.

Keywords: Double-Diffusion, modeling, MOSFET, power.

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Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of the solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulated the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar Cycles (SC) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Coronal Hole Area Feed-Forward neural network models, solar High-Speed Streams, HSSs.

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Authors: F. Esmaeilzadeh, M. E. Zeighami, J. Fathi

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This paper describes a one-dimensional numerical model for natural gas production from the dissociation of methane hydrate in hydrate-capped gas reservoir under depressurization and thermal stimulation. Some of the hydrate reservoirs discovered are overlying a free-gas layer, known as hydrate-capped gas reservoirs. These reservoirs are thought to be easiest and probably the first type of hydrate reservoirs to be produced. The mathematical equations that can be described this type of reservoir include mass balance, heat balance and kinetics of hydrate decomposition. These non-linear partial differential equations are solved using finite-difference fully implicit scheme. In the model, the effect of convection and conduction heat transfer, variation change of formation porosity, the effect of using different equations of state such as PR and ER and steam or hot water injection are considered. In addition distributions of pressure, temperature, saturation of gas, hydrate and water in the reservoir are evaluated. It is shown that the gas production rate is a sensitive function of well pressure.

Keywords: Hydrate reservoir, numerical modeling, depressurization, thermal stimulation, gas generation.

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Authors: M. S. Salimi, H. Kiamanesh, N. Hedayat

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In this survey the process of crack propagation at the toe of concrete gravity dam is investigated by applying principals and criteria of linear elastic fracture mechanic. Simulating process of earthquake conditions for three models of dam with different geometrical condition, in empty reservoir under plain stress is calculated through special fracture mechanic software FRANNC2D [1] for determining fracture mechanic criteria. The outcomes showed that in spite of the primary expectations, the simultaneous existence of fillet in both toe and heel area (model 3), the rate of maximum principal stress has not been decreased; however, even the maximum principal stress has increased, so it caused stress intensity factors increase which is undesirable. On the other hand, the dam with heel fillet has shown the best attitude and it is because of items like decreasing the rates of maximum and minimum principal stresses and also is related to decreasing the rates of stress intensity factors for 1st & 2nd modes of the model.

Keywords: Stress intensity factor, concrete gravity dam, numerical analysis, geometry of toe.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta, Amey Kambli

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Perishable goods constitute a large portion of retailer inventory and lose value with time due to deterioration and/or obsolescence. Retailers dealing with such goods required considering the factors of short shelf life and the dependency of sales on inventory displayed in determining optimal procurement policy. Many retailers follow the practice of using two bins - primary bin sales fresh items at a list price and secondary bin sales unsold items at a discount price transferred from primary bin on attaining certain age. In this paper, mathematical models are developed for primary bin and for secondary bin that maximizes profit with decision variables of order quantities, optimal review period and optimal selling price at secondary bin. The demand rates in two bins are assumed to be deterministic and dependent on displayed inventory level, price and age but independent of each other. The validity of the model is shown by solving an example and the sensitivity analysis of the model is also reported.

Keywords: Retail Inventory, Perishable Products, Two Bin, Profitable Sales.

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Authors: Yu-Kai Ting, Jia-Ying Tu, Chung-Chun Hsiao

Abstract:

New physical insights into the nonlinear Lorenz equations related to flow resistance is discussed in this work. The chaotic dynamics related to Lorenz equations has been studied in many papers, which is due to the sensitivity of Lorenz equations to initial conditions and parameter uncertainties. However, the physical implication arising from Lorenz equations about convectional motion attracts little attention in the relevant literature. Therefore, as a first step to understand the related fluid mechanics of convectional motion, this paper derives the Lorenz equations again with different forced conditions in the model. Simulation work of the modified Lorenz equations without the viscosity or buoyancy force is discussed. The time-domain simulation results may imply that the states of the Lorenz equations are related to certain flow speed and flow resistance. The flow speed of the underlying fluid system increases as the flow resistance reduces. This observation would be helpful to analyze the coupling effects of different fluid parameters in a convectional model in future work.

Keywords: Galerkin method, Lorenz equations, Navier-Stokes equations.

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Authors: Leslie J.C.Bluck, Sarah J.Jackson, Georgios Vlasakakis, Adrian Mander

Abstract:

The use of a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to interpret breath measurements obtained during a 13C Octanoic Breath Test (13COBT) is demonstrated. The statistical analysis was implemented using WinBUGS, a commercially available computer package for Bayesian inference. A hierarchical setting was adopted where poorly defined parameters associated with a delayed Gastric Emptying (GE) were able to "borrow" strength from global distributions. This is proved to be a sufficient tool to correct model's failures and data inconsistencies apparent in conventional analyses employing a Non-linear least squares technique (NLS). Direct comparison of two parameters describing gastric emptying ng ( tlag -lag phase, t1/ 2 -half emptying time) revealed a strong correlation between the two methods. Despite our large dataset ( n = 164 ), Bayesian modeling was fast and provided a successful fitting for all subjects. On the contrary, NLS failed to return acceptable estimates in cases where GE was delayed.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical analysis, 13COBT, Gastricemptying, WinBUGS.

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Authors: S. Bouharati, F. Allag, M. Belmahdi, M. Bounechada

Abstract:

In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.

Keywords: Climate changes, dry soil, Phytopathogenicity, Predictive model, Fuzzy logic.

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