Search results for: graphical decision models

Authors: Vedat Coskun, Fahri Soylemezgiller, Busra Ozdenizci, Kerem Ok

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In recent years, several smart card solutions for transportation services of cities with different technical infrastructures and business models has emerged considerably, which triggers new business and technical opportunities. In order to create a unique system, we present a novel, promising system called Multifunctional City Smart Card System to be used in all cities that provides transportation and loyalty services based on the MasterCard M/Chip Advance standards. The proposed system provides a unique solution for transportation services of large cities over the world, aiming to answer all transportation needs of citizens. In this paper, development of the Multifunctional City Smart Card system and system requirements are briefly described. Moreover, performance analysis results of M/Chip Advance Compatible Validators which is the system's most important component are presented.

Keywords: Smart Card, M/Chip Advance Standard, City Transportation, Performance Analysis.

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Authors: Gabriel Sitler, Yousef Sardahi, Asad Salem

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This paper presents an optimal and robust sliding mode controller (SMC) to regulate the position of the knee joint angle for patients suffering from knee injuries. The controller imitates the role of active orthoses that produce the joint torques required to overcome gravity and loading forces and regain natural human movements. To this end, a mathematical model of the shank, the lower part of the leg, is derived first and then used for the control system design and computer simulations. The design of the controller is carried out in optimal and multi-objective settings. Four objectives are considered: minimization of the control effort and tracking error; and maximization of the control signal smoothness and closed-loop system’s speed of response. Optimal solutions in terms of the Pareto set and its image, the Pareto front, are obtained. The results show that there are trade-offs among the design objectives and many optimal solutions from which the decision-maker can choose to implement. Also, computer simulations conducted at different points from the Pareto set and assuming knee squat movement demonstrate competing relationships among the design goals. In addition, the proposed control algorithm shows robustness in tracking a standard gait signal when accounting for uncertainty in the shank’s parameters.

Keywords: Optimal control, multi-objective optimization, sliding mode control, wearable knee exoskeletons.

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Authors: G. Lavanya Devi, Allam Appa Rao, A. Damodaram, GR Sridhar, G. Jaya Suma

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Cluster analysis divides data into groups that are meaningful, useful, or both. Analysis of biological data is creating a new generation of epidemiologic, prognostic, diagnostic and treatment modalities. Clustering of protein sequences is one of the current research topics in the field of computer science. Linear relation is valuable in rule discovery for a given data, such as if value X goes up 1, value Y will go down 3", etc. The classical linear regression models the linear relation of two sequences perfectly. However, if we need to cluster a large repository of protein sequences into groups where sequences have strong linear relationship with each other, it is prohibitively expensive to compare sequences one by one. In this paper, we propose a new technique named General Regression Model Technique Clustering Algorithm (GRMTCA) to benignly handle the problem of linear sequences clustering. GRMT gives a measure, GR*, to tell the degree of linearity of multiple sequences without having to compare each pair of them.

Keywords: Clustering, General Regression Model, Protein Sequences, Similarity Measure.

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Authors: Zheni S. Stefanova, Kandethody M. Ramachandran

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With the increasing dependency on our computer devices, we face the necessity of adequate, efficient and effective mechanisms, for protecting our network. There are two main problems that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) attempt to solve. 1) To detect the attack, by analyzing the incoming traffic and inspect the network (intrusion detection). 2) To produce a prompt response when the attack occurs (intrusion prevention). It is critical creating an Intrusion detection model that will detect a breach in the system on time and also challenging making it provide an automatic and with an acceptable delay response at every single stage of the monitoring process. We cannot afford to adopt security measures with a high exploiting computational power, and we are not able to accept a mechanism that will react with a delay. In this paper, we will propose an intrusion response mechanism that is based on artificial intelligence, and more precisely, reinforcement learning techniques (RLT). The RLT will help us to create a decision agent, who will control the process of interacting with the undetermined environment. The goal is to find an optimal policy, which will represent the intrusion response, therefore, to solve the Reinforcement learning problem, using a Q-learning approach. Our agent will produce an optimal immediate response, in the process of evaluating the network traffic.This Q-learning approach will establish the balance between exploration and exploitation and provide a unique, self-learning and strategic artificial intelligence response mechanism for IDS.

Keywords: Intrusion prevention, network security, optimal policy, Q-learning.

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Authors: K. M. Doraiswamy, Lakshminarayana Merugu, B. C. Jinaga

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This paper explains the cause of nonlinearity in floor attenuation hither to left unexplained. The performance degradation occurring in air interface for GSM signals is quantitatively analysed using the concept of Radiating Columns of buildings. The signal levels were measured using Wireless Network Optimising Drive Test Tool (E6474A of Agilent Technologies). The measurements were taken in reflected signal environment under usual fading conditions on actual GSM signals radiated from base stations. A mathematical model is derived from the measurements to predict the GSM signal levels in different floors. It was applied on three buildings and found that the predicted signal levels deviated from the measured levels with in +/- 2 dB for all floors. It is more accurate than the prediction models based on Floor Attenuation Factor. It can be used for planning proper indoor coverage in multi storey buildings.

Keywords: GSM air interface, nonlinear attenuation, multistory building, radiating columns, ground conduction and floor attenuation factor.

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

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In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: Aparajita Goswami, Mihir K Purkait

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In the present study Schwertmannite (an iron oxide hydroxide) is selected as an adsorbent for defluoridation of water. The adsorbent was prepared by wet chemical process and was characterized by SEM, XRD and BET. The fluoride adsorption efficiency of the prepared adsorbent was determined with respect to contact time, initial fluoride concentration, adsorbent dose and pH of the solution. The batch adsorption data revealed that the fluoride adsorption efficiency was highly influenced by the studied factors. Equilibrium was attained within one hour of contact time indicating fast kinetics and the adsorption data followed pseudo second order kinetic model. Equilibrium isotherm data fitted to both Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models for a concentration range of 5-30 mg/L. The adsorption system followed Langmuir isotherm model with maximum adsorption capacity of 11.3 mg/g. The high adsorption capacity of Schwertmannite points towards the potential of this adsorbent for fluoride removal from aqueous medium.

Keywords: Adsorption, fluoride, isotherm study, kinetics, schwertmannite.

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Authors: Karan Vishavjit, Aakash Lakra, Shafaq Khan

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The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed healthcare professionals to use big data analytics as a vital tool for tracking and evaluating the effects of contagious viruses. To effectively analyse huge datasets, efficient NoSQL databases are needed. The analysis of post-COVID-19 health and well-being outcomes and the evaluation of the effectiveness of government efforts during the pandemic is made possible by this research’s integration of several datasets, which cuts down on query processing time and creates predictive visual artifacts. We recommend applying sharding and indexing technologies to improve query effectiveness and scalability as the dataset expands. Effective data retrieval and analysis are made possible by spreading the datasets into a sharded database and doing indexing on individual shards. Analysis of connections between governmental activities, poverty levels, and post-pandemic wellbeing is the key goal. We want to evaluate the effectiveness of governmental initiatives to improve health and lower poverty levels. We will do this by utilising advanced data analysis and visualisations. The findings provide relevant data that support the advancement of UN sustainable objectives, future pandemic preparation, and evidence-based decision-making. This study shows how Big Data and NoSQL databases may be used to address problems with global health.

Keywords: COVID-19, big data, data analysis, indexing, NoSQL, sharding, scalability, poverty.

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Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

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To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, Mohammad Hossein Zade

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This article is an attempt to present a numerically study of the behaviour of an eccentrically loaded circular footing resting on sand to determine ‎its ultimate bearing capacity. A surface circular footing of diameter 12 cm (D) was used as ‎shallow foundation. For this purpose, three dimensional models consist of foundation, and medium sandy soil was modelled by ABAQUS software. Bearing capacity of footing was evaluated and the ‎effects of the load eccentricity on bearing capacity, its settlement, and modulus of subgrade reaction were studied. Three different values of load eccentricity with equal space from inside the core on the core boundary and outside the core boundary, which were respectively e=0.75, 1.5, and 2.25 cm, were considered. The results show that by increasing the load eccentricity, the ultimate load and the ‎modulus of subgrade reaction decreased.

Keywords: Circular foundation, eccentric loading, sand, modulus of subgrade reaction.

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Authors: M. Kosacka, I. Kudelska

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Vehicle is one of the most influential and complex product worldwide, which affects people’s life, state of the environment and condition of the economy (all aspects of sustainable development concept) during each stage of lifecycle. With the increase of vehicles’ number, there is growing potential for management of End of Life Vehicle (ELV), which is hazardous waste. From one point of view, the ELV should be managed to ensure risk elimination, but from another point, it should be treated as a source of valuable materials and spare parts. In order to obtain materials and spare parts, there are established recycling networks, which are an example of sustainable policy realization at the national level. The basic object in the polish recycling network is dismantling facility. The output material streams in dismantling stations include waste, which very often generate costs and spare parts, that have the biggest potential for revenues creation. Both outputs are stored into warehouses, according to the law. In accordance to the revenue creation and sustainability potential, it has been placed a strong emphasis on storage process. We present the concept of storage method, which takes into account the specific of the dismantling facility in order to support decision-making process with regard to the principles of sustainable development. The method was developed on the basis of case study of one of the greatest dismantling facility in Poland.

Keywords: Dismantling, end of life vehicle, sustainability, storage.

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Authors: Mafel Obhuo, Dodeye I. Igbong, Duabari S. Aziaka, Pericles Pilidis

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An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.

Keywords: Economic return, flared associated gas, net present value, optimisation.

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Authors: Changhong Guo, Shaomei Fang, Yong He

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In this paper, fractional Black-Scholes models for the European option pricing were established based on the fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm), which generalizes the concepts of the classical Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion and the G-Brownian motion, and that can be used to be a tool for considering the long range dependence and uncertain volatility for the financial markets simultaneously. A generalized fractional Black-Scholes equation (FBSE) was derived by using the Taylor’s series of fractional order and the theory of absence of arbitrage. Finally, some explicit option pricing formulas for the European call option and put option under the FBSE were also solved, which extended the classical option pricing formulas given by F. Black and M. Scholes.

Keywords: European option pricing, fractional Black-Scholes equations, fractional G-Brownian motion, Taylor’s series of fractional order, uncertain volatility.

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Authors: M. Debyeche, J.P Haton, A. Houacine

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The paper presents a complete discrete statistical framework, based on a novel vector quantization (VQ) front-end process. This new VQ approach performs an optimal distribution of VQ codebook components on HMM states. This technique that we named the distributed vector quantization (DVQ) of hidden Markov models, succeeds in unifying acoustic micro-structure and phonetic macro-structure, when the estimation of HMM parameters is performed. The DVQ technique is implemented through two variants. The first variant uses the K-means algorithm (K-means- DVQ) to optimize the VQ, while the second variant exploits the benefits of the classification behavior of neural networks (NN-DVQ) for the same purpose. The proposed variants are compared with the HMM-based baseline system by experiments of specific Arabic consonants recognition. The results show that the distributed vector quantization technique increase the performance of the discrete HMM system.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Model, Vector Quantization, Neural Network, Speech Recognition, Arabic Language

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Authors: B. Guezzen, M. A. Didi, B. Medjahed

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An organoclay (HDTMA-B) was prepared from sodium bentonite (Na-B). The starting material was modified using the hexadecyltrimethylammonium ion (HDTMA⁺) in the amounts corresponding to 100 % of the CEC value. Batch experiments were carried out in order to model and optimize the sorption of Congo red dye from aqueous solution. The pseudo-first order and pseudo-second order kinetic models have been developed to predict the rate constant and the sorption capacity at equilibrium with the effect of temperature, the solid/solution ratio and the initial dye concentration. The equilibrium time was reached within 60 min. At room temperature (20 °C), optimum dye sorption of 49.4 mg/g (98.9%) was achieved at pH 6.6, sorbent dosage of 1g/L and initial dye concentration of 50 mg/L, using surfactant modified bentonite. The optimization of adsorption parameters mentioned above on dye removal was carried out using Box-Behnken design. The sorption parameters were analyzed statistically by means of variance analysis by using the Statgraphics Centurion XVI software.

Keywords: Adsorption, dye, factorial design, kinetic, organo-bentonite.

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Authors: Devdutt, M. L. Aggarwal

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In this paper, passenger ride comfort issues are studied taking active quarter car model with three degrees of freedom. A hybrid fuzzy – PID controller with coupled rules (HFPIDCR) is designed for vibration control of passenger seat. Three different control strategies are considered. In first case, main suspension is controlled. In second case, passenger seat suspension is controlled. In third case, both main suspension and passenger seat suspensions are controlled. Passenger seat acceleration and displacement results are obtained using bump and sinusoidal type road disturbances. Finally, obtained simulation results of designed uncontrolled and controlled quarter car models are compared and discussed to select best control strategy for achieving high level of passenger ride comfort.

Keywords: Active suspension system, HFPIDCR controller, passenger ride comfort, quarter car model.

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Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed

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In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, Water Temperature, and Conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.

Keywords: Dissolved oxygen, Water quality, predication DO, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Mahmoud Roushdi, Hany Mostafa, Khaled Kheireldin

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Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor are promising and important economic regions in Egypt due to the unique location and development opportunities. Thus, the climate change impacts should be assessed over the mentioned area. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the climate extreme indices in through the last 35 year over Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor in addition to predict the climate extreme indices up to 2100. Present and future climate indices were analyzed with using different RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from 2010 until 2100 for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor. Furthermore, both CanESM and HadGEM2 global circulation models were used. The results indicate that the number of summer days is predicted to increase, on the other hand the frost days is predicted to decrease. Moreover, it is noted a slight positive trend for the percentile of wet and extremely days R95p and R99p for RCP4.5 and negative trend for RCP8.5.

Keywords: Climate change, extreme indices, RCP, Sinai Peninsula.

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Authors: Aref Aasi, Sahar Ebrahimi Bajgani, Erfan Aasi

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Breast cancer (BC) continues to be the most frequent cancer in females and causes the highest number of cancer-related deaths in women worldwide. Inspired by recent advances in studying the relationship between different patient attributes and features and the disease, in this paper, we have tried to investigate the different classification methods for better diagnosis of BC in the early stages. In this regard, datasets from the University Hospital Centre of Coimbra were chosen, and different machine learning (ML)-based and neural network (NN) classifiers have been studied. For this purpose, we have selected favorable features among the nine provided attributes from the clinical dataset by using a random forest algorithm. This dataset consists of both healthy controls and BC patients, and it was noted that glucose, BMI, resistin, and age have the most importance, respectively. Moreover, we have analyzed these features with various ML-based classifier methods, including Decision Tree (DT), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) along with NN-based Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) classifier. The results revealed that among different techniques, the SVM and MLP classifiers have the most accuracy, with amounts of 96% and 92%, respectively. These results divulged that the adopted procedure could be used effectively for the classification of cancer cells, and also it encourages further experimental investigations with more collected data for other types of cancers.

Keywords: Breast cancer, health diagnosis, Machine Learning, biomarker classification, Neural Network.

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Authors: Hilal A. Abdelwali, Elsayed E.M. Ellaimony, Ahmad E.M. Murad, Jasem M.S. Al-Rajhi

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Due to the excess of a vehicle operation through its life, some elements may face failure and deteriorate with time. This leads us to carry out maintenance, repair, tune up or full overhaul. After a certain period, the vehicle elements deteriorations increase with time which causes a very high increase of doing the maintenance operations and their costs. However, the logic decision at this point is to replace the current vehicle by a new one with minimum failure and maximum income. The importance of studying vehicle replacement problems come from the increase of stopping days due to many deteriorations in the vehicle parts. These deteriorations increase year after year causing an increase of operating costs and decrease the vehicle income. Vehicle replacement aims to determine the optimum time to keep, maintain, overhaul, renew and replace vehicles. This leads to an improvement in vehicle income, total operating costs, maintenance cost, fuel and oil costs, ton-kilometers, vehicle and engine performance, vehicle noise, vibration, and pollution. The aim of this paper is to find the optimum replacement policies of Kuwait Passenger Transport Company (KPTCP) fleet of busses. The objective of these policies is to maximize the busses pure profits. The dynamic programming (D.P.) technique is used to generate the busses optimal replacement policies

Keywords: Replacement Problem, Automotive Replacement, Dynamic Programming, Equipment Replacement, K.P.T.C.

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Authors: Luísa P. Cruz-Lopes, Artur Figueirinha, Isabel Brás, Bruno Esteves

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Portugal is an important wine and olive oil producer, activities which generate a high quantity of residues commonly called grape stalks and olive cake, respectively. In this work grape stalks and olive cake were used as lignocellulosic adsorbents for wastewater containing lead treatment. To attain a better knowledge of the factors that could influence the quality of the treated wastewater, a chemical characterization of the materials used in the treatment was done. To access the ecotoxicological safety of the treated wastewater, several tests were performed.

The results of the toxicity test show that the samples leachate has a mild effect on the living models tested. The tests performed in lemna and bacteria were the most sensible to toxicity effects of the samples. The results obtained in this work evidenced the importance of use of simple and fast toxicity tests to predict impacts in the environment.

Keywords: Chemical composition, ecotoxicological, lignocellulosic residues, safety.

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Authors: Wen-Hong Liu, Hao-Tang Jhan, Kun-Lung Lin, Meng-Tsung Lee

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Weather disaster events were frequent and caused loss of lives and property in Taiwan recently. Excessive concentration of population and lacking of integrated planning led to Taiwanese coastal zone face the impacts of climate change directly. Comparing to many countries which have already set up legislation, competent authorities and national adaptation strategies, the ability of coastal management adapting to climate change is still insufficient in Taiwan. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a complete institutional arrangement for coastal management due to climate change in order to protect environment and sustain socio-economic development. This paper firstly reviews the impact of climate change on Taiwanese coastal zone. Secondly, development of Taiwanese institutional arrangement of coastal management is introduced. Followed is the analysis of four dimensions of legal basis, competent authority, scientific and financial support and international cooperations of institutional arrangement. The results show that Taiwanese government shall: 1) integrate climate change issue into Coastal Act, Wetland Act and territorial planning Act and pass them; 2) establish the high level competent authority for coastal management; 3) set up the climate change disaster coordinate platform; 4) link scientific information and decision markers; 5) establish the climate change adjustment fund; 6) participate in international climate change organizations and meetings actively; 7) cooperate with near countries to exchange experiences.

Keywords: Climate Change, Coastal Zone Management, Institution Arrangement, Adaptation.

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Authors: Berna Eren Tokgoz, Mahdi Safa, Seokyon Hwang

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Power distribution systems are essential and crucial infrastructures for the development and maintenance of a sustainable society. These systems are extremely vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The assessment of resilience focuses on preparedness and mitigation actions under pre-disaster conditions. It also concentrates on response and recovery actions under post-disaster situations. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to assess the resilience of electric power distribution poles against wind-related events. The proposed methodology can improve the accuracy and rapidity of the evaluation of the conditions and the assessment of the resilience of poles. The methodology provides a metric for the evaluation of the resilience of poles under pre-disaster and post-disaster conditions. The metric was developed using mathematical expressions for physical forces that involve various variables, such as physical dimensions of the pole, the inclination of the pole, and wind speed. A three-dimensional imaging technology (photogrammetry) was used to determine the inclination of poles. Based on expert opinion, the proposed metric was used to define zones to visualize resilience. Visual representation of resilience is helpful for decision makers to prioritize their resources before and after experiencing a wind-related disaster. Multiple electric poles in the City of Beaumont, TX were used in a case study to evaluate the proposed methodology.  

Keywords: Photogrammetry, power distribution systems, resilience metric, system resilience, wind-related disasters.

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Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

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In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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Authors: Ilario Gabriele Gerloni, Vincenza Carchiolo, Alessandro Longheu, Ugo Becciani, Eva Sciacca, Fabio Vitello

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ICT tools and platforms endorse more and more educational process. Many models and techniques for people to be educated and trained about specific topics and skills do exist, as classroom lectures with textbooks, computers, handheld devices and others. The choice to what extent ICT is applied within learning contexts is related to personal access to technologies as well as to the infrastructure surrounding environment. Among recent techniques, the adoption of Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) provides significant impulse in fully engaging users senses. In this paper, an application of AR/VR within Geographic Information Systems (GIS) context is presented. It aims to provide immersive environment experiences for educational and training purposes (e.g. for civil protection personnel), useful especially for situations where real scenarios are not easily accessible by humans. First acknowledgments are promising for building an effective tool that helps civil protection personnel training with risk reduction.

Keywords: Education, virtual reality, augmented reality, civil protection.

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Authors: A. Amirov, O. Gerget, V. Kochegurov

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One of the main biomedical problem lies in detecting dependencies in semi structured data. Solution includes biomedical portal and algorithms (integral rating health criteria, multidimensional data visualization methods). Biomedical portal allows to process diagnostic and research data in parallel mode using Microsoft System Center 2012, Windows HPC Server cloud technologies. Service does not allow user to see internal calculations instead it provides practical interface. When data is sent for processing user may track status of task and will achieve results as soon as computation is completed. Service includes own algorithms and allows diagnosing and predicating medical cases. Approved methods are based on complex system entropy methods, algorithms for determining the energy patterns of development and trajectory models of biological systems and logical–probabilistic approach with the blurring of images.

Keywords: Biomedical portal, cloud computing, diagnostic and prognostic research, mathematical data analysis.

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Authors: T. Motsima

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The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.

Keywords: Under-5 mortality, risk factors, millennium development goals, breastfeeding, logistic regression.

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Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

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ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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Authors: M. M. Mashhadi, K. Mohajeri, M. D. Nayeri

Abstract:

Positioning the organization in the strategic environment of its industry is one of the first and most important phases of the organizational strategic planning and in today knowledge-based economy has its importance been duplicated for higher education institutes as the centers of education, knowledge creation and knowledge worker training. Up to now, various models with diverse approaches have been applied to investigate organizations- strategic position in different industries. Regarding the essential importance and strategic role of quality in higher education institutes, in this study, a quality-oriented approach has been suggested to positioning them in their strategic environment. Then the European Foundation of Quality Management (EFQM) model has been adopted to position the top Iranian business schools in their strategic environment. The result of this study can be used in strategic planning of these institutes as well as the other Iranian business schools.

Keywords: Strategic planning, Strategic positioning, Quality, EFQM model, Higher education institutions.

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