Search results for: multivariate mortality rate

Authors: Ijaz Ahmed, Anwar Zada, Muhammad Waqas, M. U. Ashraf

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We demonstrate the performance of a very efficient tagger applies on hadronically decaying top quark pairs as signal based on deep neural network algorithms and compares with the QCD multi-jet background events. A significant enhancement of performance in boosted top quark events is observed with our limited computing resources. We also compare modern machine learning approaches and perform a multivariate analysis of boosted top-pair as well as single top quark production through weak interaction at √s = 14 TeV proton-proton Collider. The most relevant known background processes are incorporated. Through the techniques of Boosted Decision Tree (BDT), likelihood and Multlayer Perceptron (MLP) the analysis is trained to observe the performance in comparison with the conventional cut based and count approach

Keywords: top tagger, multivariate, deep learning, LHC, single top

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Authors: Kajori Banerjee, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi

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“Health transition” is defined to be “a process through which high levels of mortality, morbidity and disability are reduced to low levels by influencing cultural, social and behavioural factors”. Life expectancy in India has been on the rise and parallel the burden of disease and disability has also risen noticeably. Borrowing data from Indian Census (2001, 2011), this study identifies the gender-wise burden of disability by calculating disability free life expectancy (DFLE) and life lived with disability (LWD). Sullivan’s method of calculating DFLE using proportion of disabled is used for this purpose. The change in person years lived with disability in the decade 2001-11 is further decomposed using Arriaga’s method into mortality and disability effects (ME and DE) to check the magnitude and direction of contribution of mortality and disability. Nationally, along with DFLE, LWD has amplified too. Despite having the highest life expectancy and DFLE, LWD in Kerala, was highest for both sexes in 2001. But in 2011, the LWD was highest among the males of Orissa and females of Rajasthan. For the overall population, DE is positive for the prime working age groups of 20-40years indicating that there has been an increase in the disability proportion holding mortality constant for 2001-2011. Females exhibit higher positive DE implying greater loss of healthy years due to disability than males. The findings call for an immediate attention to the causes of rising disability burden among the working population, especially females, as this might heavily effect the availability of quality labour force and its relative economic output in the Indian labour market. This also hints at the degrading quality of the elongated life and needs to be given the required attention to enhance the quality of life lead in the Nation.

Keywords: disability-free life expectancy, disability effect, life expectancy, mortality effect

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Authors: Ahmed Arkoazi, Hussein Znad, Ranjeet Utikar

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The synergistic impact and optimization of gas flow rate, concentration of CO₂, and light intensity on CO₂ biofixation rate were investigated using wastewater as a medium to cultivate Chlorella vulgaris under different conditions (gas flow rate 1-8 L/min), CO₂ concentration (0.03-7%), and light intensity (150-400 µmol/m².s)). Response Surface Methodology and Box-Behnken experimental Design were applied to find optimum values for gas flow rate, CO₂ concentration, and light intensity. The optimum values of the three independent variables (gas flow rate, concentration of CO₂, and light intensity) and desirability were 7.5 L/min, 3.5%, and 400 µmol/m².s, and 0.904, respectively. The highest amount of biomass produced and CO₂ biofixation rate at optimum conditions were 5.7 g/L, 1.23 gL^-1d^-1, respectively. The synergistic effect between gas flow rate and concentration of CO₂, and between gas flow rate and light intensity was significant on the three responses, while the effect between CO₂ concentration and light intensity was less significant on CO₂ biofixation rate. The results of this study could be highly helpful when using microalgae for CO₂ biofixation in wastewater treatment.

Keywords: bubble column reactor, gas holdup, hydrodynamics, sparger

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Mostafa Najim, Alaa Rahhal, Fadi Khir, Safae Abu Yousef, Amer Aljundi, Feryal Ibrahim, Aliaa Amer, Ahmed Soliman Mohamed, Samira Saleh, Dekra Alfaridi, Ahmed Mahfouz, Sumaya Al-Yafei, Faraj Howady, Mohamad Yahya Khatib, Samar Alemadi

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) increases the risk of coagulopathy among critically ill patients. Although the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs) has been proposed as a possible mechanism of COVID-19 induced coagulopathy, their clinical significance among critically ill patients with COVID-19 remains uncertain. Methods: This prospective observational study included patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units (ICU) to evaluate the prevalence and clinical significance of aPLs, including anticardiolipin IgG/IgM, anti-β2-glycoprotein IgG/IgM, and lupus anticoagulant. The study outcomes included the prevalence of aPLs, a primary composite outcome of all-cause mortality, and arterial or venous thrombosis among aPLs positive patients versus aPLs negative patients during their ICU stay. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess the influence of aPLs on the primary composite outcome of mortality and thrombosis. Results: A total of 60 critically ill patients were enrolled. Of whom, 57 (95%) were male, with a mean age of 52.8 ± 12.2 years, and the majority were from Asia (68%). Twenty-two patients (37%) were found to have positive aPLs; of whom 21 patients were positive for lupus anticoagulant, whereas one patient was positive for anti-β2-glycoprotein IgG/IgM. The composite outcome of mortality and thrombosis during ICU did not differ among patients with positive aPLs compared to those with negative aPLs (4 (18%) vs. 6 (16%), aOR= 0.98, 95% CI 0.1-6.7; p-value= 0.986). Likewise, the secondary outcomes, including all-cause mortality, venous thrombosis, arterial thrombosis, discharge from ICU, time to mortality, and time to discharge from ICU, did not differ between those with positive aPLs upon ICU admission in comparison to patients with negative aPLs. Conclusion: The presence of aPLs does not seem to affect the outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19 in terms of all-cause mortality and thrombosis. Therefore, clinicians may not screen critically ill patients with COVID-19 for aPLs unless deemed clinically appropriate.

Keywords: antiphospholipid antibodies, critically ill patients, coagulopathy, coronavirus

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Authors: R. Henry, H. Andriamboavonjy, J. B. Paulin, S. Drahy, R. Gourichon

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During past decade, Chinese monetary policy has been to maintain stability of exchange rate CNY/USD by creating parity between the two currencies. This policy, against market equilibrium, impacts the exchange rate in having low Yuan currency, and keeping attractiveness of Chinese industries. Using macroeconomic and statistic approach, the impact of such policy onto CNY/USD exchange rate is quantitatively determined. It is also pointed out how Chinese banks respect Basel III ratios, in particular the foreign exchange ratio. The main analysis is focusing on how Chinese banks will respect these ratios in the future.

Keywords: macroeconomics models, yuan floating exchange rate, basel iii, china banking system

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Authors: Friday I. Joseph

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Background: Nigeria has an under-five mortality rate that is 128 per 1000 live birth which is higher than the rate for the African region. Optimal breastfeeding practice has the potential to reduce under-five mortality by 13% in developing countries. However, documented exclusive breastfeeding rate in Nigeria from birth to six months is just 17%. Aim: To explore perceptions of the sociocultural factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding for six months among rural mothers in Bindawa and Baure Local Government Area (LGA), Katsina state, North West Nigeria, to inform policies, intervention or strategies to improve exclusive breastfeeding practice in Nigeria. Methods: The social constructionism-interpretivist epistemological approach informed the use of an exploratory study to understand mothers’ experiences and views. Twenty mothers, all from rural areas between 19-35 years old were conveniently sampled from two LGA in Katsina state, north –west Nigeria for semi-structured interviews. Sample size had representation of both Hausa and Fulani ethnic group. Thematic content analysis was utilized for analysis. Results: Three major themes emerged from the study: (1) Breastfeeding initiation - Immediate traditional newborn care practices, birth attendant, place of delivery, the perception of about colostrum determines how soon a mother initiate breastfeeding. (2) Exclusive breastfeeding and introduction of food-Motivation to sustain exclusive breastfeeding relies on the interplay between the obligation to perform traditional rites; mother’s awareness and family support. (3) Decision making about infant feeding – It is not independent of the influence of key social figures like the father, mother-in-law, traditional birth attendant and the health workers. Overall, in spite of awareness of exclusive breastfeeding benefits, mothers expressed concerns that they may not win their family support if they shared contrary views. Conclusions: Health promotion intervention should be tailored, taking cognizant and addressing the sociocultural barriers to the practice of optimal breastfeeding by a focused community and family-based participatory approach. Implementers of interventions should employ culture-sensitive approaches in community-based intervention.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, perception, qualitative, sociocultural determinants

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Authors: Kemi Olalekan Oduntan

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This paper was carried out in order to empirical, and descriptively analysis how interest rate and foreign exchange rate liberalization influence investment decision in Nigeria. The study spanned through the period of 1985 – 2014, secondary data were restricted to relevant variables such as investment (Proxy by Gross Fixed Capital Formation) saving rate, interest rate and foreign exchange rate. Theories and empirical literature from various scholars were reviews in the paper. Ordinary Least Square regression method was used for the analysis of data collection. The result of the regression was critically interpreted and discussed. It was discovered for empirical finding that tax investment decision in Nigeria is highly at sensitive rate. Hence, all the alternative hypotheses were accepted while the respective null hypotheses were rejected as a result of interest rate and foreign exchange has significant effect on investment in Nigeria. Therefore, impact of interest rate and foreign exchange rate on the state of investment in the economy cannot be over emphasized.

Keywords: interest rate, foreign exchange liberalization, investment decision, economic growth

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Authors: J. Aliyu, A. O. Raji, A. A. Ibrahim

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The study was carried out to assess the fertility, early and late embryonic mortalities as well as hatchability by strain, season and hen’s weight in Nigerian indigenous chickens reared on deep litter. Four strains (normal feathered, naked neck, frizzle and dwarf) of hens maintained at a mating ratio of 1 cock to 4 hens, fed breeders mash and water ad libitum were used in a three year experiment. The data generated were subjected to analysis of variance using the SAS package and the means, where significant, were separated using the least significant difference (LSD). There were significant effects (P < 0.05) of strain on all the traits studied. Fertility was generally high (84.29 %) in all the strains. Early embryonic mortality was significantly lowest (P < 0.01) in naked neck which had the highest late embryonic mortality (P < 0.001). Hatchability was significantly highest (P < 0.01) in normal feathered (80.23 %) and slightly depressed in frizzle (74.95 %) and dwarf (72.27 %) while naked neck had the lowest (60.80 %). Season of the year had significant effects on early embryonic mortality. Dry hot season significantly (P < 0.05) depressed fertility while early embryonic mortality was depressed in the wet season (15.33 %). Early and late embryonic mortalities significantly increased (P < 0.05) with increasing weight of hen. Dwarf, frizzle and normal feathered hens could be used to improve hatchability as well as reduce early and late embryonic mortalities in Nigerian indigenous chickens.

Keywords: chicken, fertility, hatchability, indigenous, strain

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Suzan Anwar, Utkarsh Goyal

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Heart rate (HR) is a predictor of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and all-cause mortality in the general population, as well as in patients with cardio and cerebrovascular diseases. Machine learning (ML) significantly improves the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others. This research examines relationship between the individual's various heart health inputs like age, sex, cp, trestbps, thalach, oldpeaketc, and the likelihood of developing heart disease. Machine learning techniques like logistic regression and decision tree, and Python are used. The results of testing and evaluating the model using the Heart Failure Prediction Dataset show the chance of a person having a heart disease with variable accuracy. Logistic regression has yielded an accuracy of 80.48% without data handling. With data handling (normalization, standardscaler), the logistic regression resulted in improved accuracy of 87.80%, decision tree 100%, random forest 100%, and SVM 100%.

Keywords: heart rate, machine learning, SVM, decision tree, logistic regression, random forest

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Authors: Tiee-Jian Wu, Chih-Yuan Hsu

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Mode estimation is an important task, because it has applications to data from a wide variety of sources. We propose a semi-parametric approach to estimate the mode of an unknown continuous multivariate density function. Our approach is based on a weighted average of a parametric density estimate using the Box-Cox transform and a non-parametric kernel density estimate. Our semi-parametric mode estimate improves both the parametric- and non-parametric- mode estimates. Specifically, our mode estimate solves the non-consistency problem of parametric mode estimates (at large sample sizes) and reduces the variability of non-parametric mode estimates (at small sample sizes). The performance of our method at practical sample sizes is demonstrated by simulation examples and two real examples from the fields of climatology and image recognition.

Keywords: Box-Cox transform, density estimation, mode seeking, semiparametric method

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Authors: Ibtisam Al-Zaru

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Background: Worldwide, depression among coronary artery disease (CAD) patients is considered a serious problem that may cause many complications and negative consequences; particularly serious being increased mortality and morbidity rate. Studying depression among CAD patients in Jordan has not been investigated thoroughly and thus a need for further studies has been a priority. Aims: To assess depression in non-hospitalized Jordanian patients with CAD; to describe the relationship between socio-demographic data, health related factors, and depression; and to examine the best predictors of depression in non-hospitalized Jordanian patients with CAD. Method: A cross-sectional-descriptive design was used to collect data from 174 non-hospitalized Jordanian patients diagnosed with CAD in outpatients’ cardiac clinics, using a self- administered questionnaires and Cardiac Depression Scale. Results: 53.4% of CAD patients reported mild/moderate, and severe depressive symptoms. Significant relationships between depressive symptoms and some demo-clinical characteristics (i.e. being female gender; having of chronic disease and surgical history; being physically inactive, and perceived their sexual activity, physical and psychological as poor). The preceding factors are also found to be statistically significant predictors for depression among this patients’ group. Conclusion: Jordanian patients with CAD had various levels of severity regarding their depressive symptoms. Therefore, health care providers need to introduce depression assessment and treatment in cardiac rehabilitation to control depression and its impact on the patient. Consequently, such control will reduce co-morbidity, mortality, complications and health costs among CAD patients and enhance the quality of their lives.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, predictors, depression, prevalence

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Authors: Dongjoo Kim, Chang-Sik Son, Won-Seok Kang

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Adequate sleep affects various parts of one’s overall physical and mental life. As one of the methods in determining the appropriate amount of sleep, this research presents a heart rate based sleep quality index. In order to evaluate sleep quality using the heart rate, sleep data from 280 subjects taken over one month are used. Their sleep data are categorized by a three-part heart rate range. After categorizing, some features are extracted, and the statistical significances are verified for these features. The results show that some features of this sleep quality index model have statistical significance. Thus, this heart rate based sleep quality index may be a useful discriminator of sleep.

Keywords: sleep, sleep quality, heart rate, statistical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Elizabeth Behrens, Anne Timmermann, Alexander Yerkan, Joshua Thomas, Deborah Katz, Agne Paner, Melissa Larson, Shivi Jain, Seo-Hyun Kim, Celalettin Ustun, Ankur Varma, Parameswaran Venugopal, Jamile Shammo

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Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) causes persistent concern for poor outcomes in vulnerable populations. Patients with hematologic malignancies (HM) have been found to have higher COVID-19 case fatality rates compared to those without malignancy. While cytopenias are common in patients with HM, especially in those undergoing chemotherapy treatment, hemoglobin (Hgb) and platelet count have not yet been studied, to our best knowledge, as potential prognostic indicators for patients with HM and COVID-19. The goal of this study is to identify factors that may increase the risk of mortality in patients with HM and COVID-19. In this single-center, retrospective, observational study, 65 patients with HM and laboratory confirmed COVID-19 were identified between March 2020 and January 2021. Information on demographics, laboratory data the day of COVID-19 diagnosis, and prognosis was extracted from the electronic medical record (EMR), chart reviewed, and analyzed using the statistical software SAS version 9.4. Chi-square testing was used for categorical variable analyses. Risk factors associated with mortality were established by logistic regression models. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (37%), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (20%), and plasma cell dyscrasia (15%) were the most common HM. Higher Hgb level upon COVID-19 diagnosis was related to decreased mortality, odd ratio=0.704 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.511-0.969; P = .0263). Platelet count the day of COVID-19 diagnosis was lower in patients who ultimately died (mean 127 ± 72K/uL, n=10) compared to patients who survived (mean 197 ±92K/uL, n=55) (P=.0258). Female sex was related to decreased mortality, odd ratio=0.143 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.026-0.785; P = .0353). There was no mortality difference between the patients who were on treatment for HM the day of COVID-19 diagnosis compared to those who were not (P=1.000). Lower Hgb and male sex are independent risk factors associated with increased mortality of HM patients with COVID-19. Clinicians should be especially attentive to patients with HM and COVID-19 who present with cytopenias. Larger multi-center studies are urgently needed to further investigate the impact of anemia, thrombocytopenia, and demographics on outcomes of patients with hematologic malignancies diagnosed with COVID-19.

Keywords: anemia, COVID-19, hematologic malignancy, prognosis

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Authors: Chee Dhang Chen, Hiroyuki Takaoka, Koon Weng Lau, Poh Ruey Tan, Ai Chdon Chin, Van Lun Low, Abdul Aziz Azidah, Mohd Sofian-Azirun

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Susceptibility status of Simulium (Simulium) nobile (Diptera: Simuliidae) adults obtained from Pahang, Malaysia was evaluated against 11 adulticides representing four major insecticide classes: organochlorines (DDT, dieldrin), organophosphates (malathion, fenitrothion), carbamates (bendiocarb, propoxur) and pyrethroids (etofenprox, deltamethrin, lambdacyhalothrin, permethrin, cyfluthrin). The adult bioassay was conducted according to WHO standard protocol to determine the insecticide susceptibility. Mortality at 24 h post treatment was used as indicator for susceptibility status. The results revealed that S. nobile obtained was susceptible to propoxur, cyfluthrin and bendiocarb with 100% mortality. S. nobile was resistant or exhibited some tolerant against lambdacyhalothrin and deltamethrin with mortality ranged ≥ 90% but < 98%. S. nobile populations in Pahang exhibited different level of resistant against 11 adulticides with mortality ranged from 60.00 ± 10.00 to 100.00 ± 0.00. In conclusion, S. nobile populations in Pahang were susceptible to propoxur, cyfluthrin and bendiocarb. The susceptibility status of S. nobile in descending order was propoxur, cyfluthrin > bendicarb > deltamethrin > lambdacyhalothrin > permethrin > etofenprox > DDT > malathion > fenitrothion > dieldrin. Regular surveys should be conducted to monitor the susceptibility status of this insect vector in order to prevent further development of resistance.

Keywords: black fly, adult bioassay, insecticide resistance, Malaysia

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Authors: Julie Mariam Abraham, G. J. Melendez-Torres

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Background. Maternal mortality is disproportionately higher in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) compared to other parts of the world. At the current pace of progress, the Sustainable Development Goals for maternal mortality rate will not be achieved by 2030. A variety of factors influence the increased risk of maternal complications in LMICs. These are exacerbated by socio-economic and political factors, including poverty, illiteracy, and gender inequality. This paper aims to use realist synthesis to identify the contexts, mechanisms, and outcomes (CMOs) of maternal health interventions conducted in LMICs to inform evidence-based practice for future maternal health interventions. Methods. In May 2022, we searched four electronic databases for systematic reviews of maternal health interventions in LMICs published in the last five years. We used open and axial coding of CMOs to develop an explanatory framework for intervention effectiveness. Results. After eligibility screening and full-text analysis, 44 papers were included. The intervention strategies and measured outcomes varied within reviews. Healthcare system level contextual factors were the most frequently reported, and infrastructural capacity was the most reported context. The most prevalent mechanism was increased knowledge and awareness. Discussion. Health system infrastructure must be considered in interventions to ensure effective implementation and sustainability. Healthcare-seeking behaviours are embedded within social and cultural norms, environmental conditions, family influences, and provider attitudes. Therefore, effective engagement with communities and families is important to create new norms surrounding pregnancy and delivery. Future research should explore community mobilisation and involvement to enable tailored interventions with optimal contextual fit.

Keywords: maternal mortality, service delivery and organisation, realist synthesis, sustainable development goals, overview of reviews

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Authors: Simin Asadollahi, Amir H. Soruri, Ali Moghimi

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Nowadays, salad oils are used in many countries around the world. Therefore, it is of great importance to ensure the safety of these food products which are usually packaged in Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles and come on the market. This study investigated the effects of storage time and temperature on the migration rate of phthalate compounds from PET bottle to salad oil. In more detail, migration rate of bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate from bottles to salad oil samples was measured in 1st, the 30th, and the 60th days of storage at a temperature of either 20 or 40 °C. At both storage temperatures, an increase in the storage time led to a statistically significant increase in the migration rate of phthalate compounds (p<.01). Regarding this, the highest migration rate occurred after 60 days of storage in to the samples. Furthermore, it was revealed bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate had a higher migration rate at 40 °C than at 20 °C which showed that an increase in the storage temperature would lead to an increase in the migration rate. The highest migration rate occurred in relation to salad oil stored at 40 °C and after 60 days of storage.

Keywords: salad oil, migration rate, polyethylene terephthalate, bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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The detection and identification of multivariate manufacturing processes are quite important in order to maintain good product quality. Unusual behaviors or events encountered during its operation can have a serious impact on the process and product quality. Thus they should be detected and identified as soon as possible. This paper focused on the efficient representation of process measurement data in detecting and identifying abnormalities. This qualitative method is effective in representing fault patterns of process data. In addition, it is quite sensitive to measurement noise so that reliable outcomes can be obtained. To evaluate its performance a simulation process was utilized, and the effect of adopting linear and nonlinear methods in the detection and identification was tested with different simulation data. It has shown that the use of a nonlinear technique produced more satisfactory and more robust results for the simulation data sets. This monitoring framework can help operating personnel to detect the occurrence of process abnormalities and identify their assignable causes in an on-line or real-time basis.

Keywords: detection, monitoring, identification, measurement data, multivariate techniques

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Authors: Jeh-Nan Pan, Chung-I Li

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Measurement system analysis (MSA) plays an important role in helping organizations to improve their product quality. Generally speaking, the gauge repeatability and reproducibility (GRR) study is performed according to the MSA handbook stated in QS9000 standards. Usually, GRR study for assessing the adequacy of gauge variation needs to be conducted prior to the process capability analysis. Traditional MSA only considers a single quality characteristic. With the advent of modern technology, industrial products have become very sophisticated with more than one quality characteristic. Thus, it becomes necessary to perform multivariate GRR analysis for a measurement system when collecting data with multiple responses. In this paper, we take the correlation coefficients among tolerances into account to revise the multivariate precision-to-tolerance (P/T) ratio as proposed by Majeske (2008). We then compare the performance of our revised P/T ratio with that of the existing ratios. The simulation results show that our revised P/T ratio outperforms others in terms of robustness and proximity to the actual value. Moreover, the optimal allocation of several parameters such as the number of quality characteristics (v), sample size of parts (p), number of operators (o) and replicate measurements (r) is discussed using the confidence interval of the revised P/T ratio. Finally, a standard operating procedure (S.O.P.) to perform the GRR study for multivariate measurement systems is proposed based on the research results. Hopefully, it can be served as a useful reference for quality practitioners when conducting such study in industries. Measurement system analysis (MSA) plays an important role in helping organizations to improve their product quality. Generally speaking, the gauge repeatability and reproducibility (GRR) study is performed according to the MSA handbook stated in QS9000 standards. Usually, GRR study for assessing the adequacy of gauge variation needs to be conducted prior to the process capability analysis. Traditional MSA only considers a single quality characteristic. With the advent of modern technology, industrial products have become very sophisticated with more than one quality characteristic. Thus, it becomes necessary to perform multivariate GRR analysis for a measurement system when collecting data with multiple responses. In this paper, we take the correlation coefficients among tolerances into account to revise the multivariate precision-to-tolerance (P/T) ratio as proposed by Majeske (2008). We then compare the performance of our revised P/T ratio with that of the existing ratios. The simulation results show that our revised P/T ratio outperforms others in terms of robustness and proximity to the actual value. Moreover, the optimal allocation of several parameters such as the number of quality characteristics (v), sample size of parts (p), number of operators (o) and replicate measurements (r) is discussed using the confidence interval of the revised P/T ratio. Finally, a standard operating procedure (S.O.P.) to perform the GRR study for multivariate measurement systems is proposed based on the research results. Hopefully, it can be served as a useful reference for quality practitioners when conducting such study in industries.

Keywords: gauge repeatability and reproducibility, multivariate measurement system analysis, precision-to-tolerance ratio, Gauge repeatability

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Authors: T. Pradhan, P. Rijal, M. C. Regmi

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Background: Eclampsia is a multisystem disorder that involves vital organs and failure of these may lead to deterioration of maternal condition and hypoxia and acidosis of fetus resulting in high maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Thus, evaluation of the contributing factors for this condition and its complications leading to maternal deaths should be the priority. Formulating the plan and protocol to decrease these losses should be our goal. Aims and Objectives: To evaluate the risk factors associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcome in patients with eclampsia and to correlate the risk factors associated with maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Methods: All patients with eclampsia admitted in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, B. P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences were enrolled after informed consent from February 2013 to February 2014. Questions as per per-forma were asked to patients, and attendants like Antenatal clinic visits, parity, number of episodes of seizures, duration from onset of seizure to magnesium sulfate and the patients were followed as per the hospital protocol, the mode of delivery, outcome of baby, post partum maternal condition like maternal Intensive Care Unit admission, neurological impairment and mortality were noted before discharge. Statistical analysis was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 11). Mean and percentage were calculated for demographic variables. Pearson’s correlation test and chi-square test were applied to find the relation between the risk factors and the outcomes. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were 10,000 antenatal deliveries during the study period. Fifty-two patients with eclampsia were admitted. All of the patients were unbooked for our institute. Thirty-nine patients were antepartum eclampsia. Thirty-one patients required mechanical ventilator support. Twenty-four patients were delivered by emergency c-section and 21 babies were Low Birth Weight and there were 9 stillbirths. There was one maternal mortality and 45 patients were discharged with improvement but 3 patients had neurological impairment. Mortality was significantly related with number of seizure episodes and time interval between seizure onset and administration of magnesium sulphate. Conclusion: Early detection and management of hypertensive complicating pregnancy during antenatal clinic check up. Early hospitalization and management with magnesium sulphate for eclampsia can help to minimize the maternal and fetal adverse outcomes.

Keywords: eclampsia, maternal mortality, perinatal mortality, risk factors

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Authors: Teodora Mocan, Matea Cristian, Cornel Iancu, Flaviu A. Tabaran, Florin Zaharie, Bartos Dana, Lucian Mocan

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Colon cancer (CC) a lethal human malignancy, is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancer. With its high increased mortality rate, as well as low survival rate combined with high resistance to chemotherapy CC, represents one of the most important global health issues. In the presented research, we have developed a distinct nanostructured colon carcinoma vaccine model based on a nano-biosystem composed of 39 nm gold nanoparticles conjugated to colon cancer epitopes. We prove by means of proteomic analysis, immunocytochemistry, flow cytometry and hyperspectral microscopy that our developed nanobioconjugate was able to contribute to an optimal prophylactic effect against CC by promoting major histocompatibility complex mediated (MHC) antigen presentation by dendritic cells. We may conclude that the proposed immunoprophylactic approach could be more effective than the current treatments of CC because it promotes recognition of the tumoral antigens by the immune system.

Keywords: anticancer vaccine, colon cancer, gold nanoparticles, tumor antigen

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Authors: Mujahid Ali, Wasif Mohammed Ali, Meraj Ahmad

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Background: Perforation peritonitis is the most common surgical emergency encountered by surgeons all over the world as well as in India. The etiology of perforation peritonitis in India continues to be different from its western counterparts. The aim of this study is to evaluate the spectrum of cases of perforation peritonitis at our hospital. Methods: A prospective study conducted includes three hundred thirtysix patients of perforation peritonitis at J. N. Medical College from October 2015 to July 2017. The patients were admitted, resuscitated and underwent emergency laparotomy. Data were collected in terms of demographic profile, clinical presentations, site of perforations, causes and surgical outcomes. Results: In this study, the most common cause of perforation peritonitis was peptic ulcer disease (43%), followed by enteric perforation (12.8%), tubercular perforation (12.5%), traumatic perforation (11.9%), appendicular perforation (9.8%), amoebic caecal perforation (3%), malignant perforation (1.5%), etc. The sites of perforations were stomach in majority (38.3%), ileum (31%), appendix (8%), duodenum (5.%), caecum (4.4%) ,colon (3%), jejunum (8.5%) and gall bladder (2%). The overall mortality was 21% in our study. Age >50 years (p= <0.0001, OR= 3.9260, CI= 2.2 to 6.9), organ failure (p= <0.0001, OR= 29.2, CI= 14.8 to 57.6), shock (p=<0.0001, OR=20.20, CI= 10.56 to 38.6), diffuse peritonitis (p<0.0015, OR= 6.8810, CI= 2.09 to 22.57) and faecal exudates (p<0.0001) were found to be significant factors affecting mortality. The most common complication associated was superficial wound infection (40%), followed by burst abdomen seen in 21% cases, intra-abdominal sepsis in 18% cases, electrolyte imbalances in 15% cases, anastomotic leak in 6% cases. Conclusion: In this study, stomach is the most common site of perforation with peptic ulcer disease being the most common etiology. Older age, presence of shock, organ failure and faecal peritonitis were the risk factors affecting the mortality of the patients. Early recognition, adequate resuscitation and referral of patients can influence outcome and reduces mortality as well as morbidity.

Keywords: etiology, mortality, perforation, spectrum

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Authors: Walid Chkili

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This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between gold and stock markets using data for BRICS counties. For this purpose, we estimate three multivariate GARCH models (namely CCC, DCC and BEKK) for weekly stock and gold data. Our main objective is to examine time variations in conditional correlations between the two assets and to check the effectiveness use of gold as a hedge for equity markets. Empirical results reveal that dynamic conditional correlations switch between positive and negative values over the period under study. This correlation is negative during the major financial crises suggesting that gold can act as a safe haven during the major stress period of stock markets. We also evaluate the implications for portfolio diversification and hedging effectiveness for the pair gold/stock. Our findings suggest that adding gold in the stock portfolio enhance its risk-adjusted return.

Keywords: gold, financial markets, hedge, multivariate GARCH

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Authors: Ali Ashraf Hamedi Oghul Beyk

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The main objective of the study is to determine the factors which influence the acceptance or rejection of rural livestock insurance in Garmsar. The research method is descriptive one. There are two groups of research populations: 1467 cases in acceptance group and 7000 cases in rejection group. The sample population is 320 cases among 8467 ones. Data collection instrument is questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was measured by faculty members and other agriculture experts and also reliability of it determined through Cronbach alpha which was %83. Correlation between acceptance and rejection of investigated population. According to the findings of the research, between educational level, basic income from farm-related communication channels, contacts of experts and acceptance and rejection of livestock insurance at %5 & the mortality rate, loan awareness of the objectives of the livestock insurance benefits %1 there is a meaningful relationship. Mann-Whitney test shows the different educational levels, different awareness and interest to livestock insurance between the two groups. Besides, the T-test shows the livestock losses rate in two groups.

Keywords: insurance, livestock, Garmsar, Semnan

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Authors: Orogun Daniel Oghenekevhwe

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Africa being an agrarian continent has an abundance of fruits that are both nutritional and medicinal. Regardless of the abundance of these healing elements, Africa leads the statistics of poor healthcare globally. Among others, there are two noticeable challenges in the healthcare system which are ‘Poor access and high cost of medical healthcare’. The effects of both the access and economic implications are (1) Low responsiveness and (2) High mortality rate. While the United Nations and the global health community continue to work towards reduced mortality rates and poor responsiveness to healthcare and wellness, this paper investigates how some Africans use the spiritual symbols of African fruits as responsive catalysts to embrace naturopathy thereby reducing the effects and impacts of poor healthcare challenges in Africa. The main argument is whether there are links between spiritual symbols and fruits that influence Africans' response to naturopathy and low-cost healthcare. Following that is the question of how medical healthcare responds to such development. Bitter Kola (Garcinia) is the case study fruit, and Sunnyside in Pretoria, South Africa, has been spotted as one of the high-traffic selling points of herbal fruits. A mixed research method is applicable with an expected 20 Quantitative data respondents among sellers and nutritionists and 50 Qualitative Data respondents among consumers. Based on the results, it should be clear how spirituality contributes to alternative healthcare and how it can be further encouraged to bridge the gap between the high demand and low supply of healthcare in Africa and beyond.

Keywords: spiritual symbols, naturopathy, African fruits, spirituality, healthcare

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Authors: Malay Bhattacharyya, Saparya Suresh

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The Correlation Structure associated with a portfolio is subjected to vary across time. Studying the structural breaks in the time-dependent Correlation matrix associated with a collection had been a subject of interest for a better understanding of the market movements, portfolio selection, etc. The current paper proposes a methodology for testing the change in the time-dependent correlation structure of a portfolio in the high dimensional data using the techniques of generalized inverse, singular valued decomposition and multivariate distribution theory which has not been addressed so far. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test are derived. Also, the performance and the validity of the method is tested on a real data set. The proposed test performs well for detecting the change in the dependence of global markets in the context of high dimensional data.

Keywords: correlation structure, high dimensional data, multivariate distribution theory, singular valued decomposition

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Authors: Imane Naboulsi, Mansour Sobeh, Rachid Lamzira, Karim El Fakhouri, Widad Ben Bakrim, Chaimae Ramdani, Rachid Boulamtat, Mustapha El Bouhssini, Jane ward, Abdelaziz Yasri, Aziz Aboulmouhajir

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The wild cochineal Dactylopius opuntiae (Cockerell) (Hemiptera: Dactylopiidae) is the major insect pest of the prickly pear Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) in Morocco, which has causedenormous socio-economic and environmental losses to this crop in recent years. This study aimed to investigate the insecticidal potential of six aqueous (100% water), and methanolic (20/80 (v/v) MeOH/H2O) extracts obtained from aromatic and medicinal plants growing in arid and semi-arid regions of Morocco to control nymphs and adult females of D. opuntiae, under laboratory and greenhouse conditions. Under laboratory conditions, the aqueous extracts of Atriplex halimus at 5% caused significant mortality in nymphs with 71% four days after application and 88%on adult females of D. opuntiae8 days post-treatment. Under greenhouse conditions, the aqueous extract of A. halimus combined with black soap at 10 g/L showed the highest mortality rate of nymphs with 100%, 4 days after application. The adult females' mortality increased significantly to reach 83.75%,14 days after the second application of A. halimus aqueous extract at 5%. Phytochemical analysis of the water extract of A. halimus revealed a high content of saponins (24.09 ± 0.71 mg SSE/g DW) compared to other plant extracts, which was confirmed by LC-MS characterization that showed the presence of 36 triterpenoid saponin compounds (derived from oleic-12-en-28-oic acid), in addition to phytoecdysones, simple carboxylic acids, and flavonoids. These findings showed that using the aqueous extract of A. halimus as a biological pesticide could be incorporated into the management package to control the wild cochineal as a safe alternative to chemical insecticides.

Keywords: dactylopius opuntiae, opuntia ficus-indica L., plant extracts, toxicity, atriplex halimus, saponins

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Authors: Haruna Karamba, Nafisa Muhammad Danyaro

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The study describe the action of natural latex (extract) of two sub-aquatic macrophytes plants i.e., Cassia occidentalis and Physalis angulata which were tested against two water snail species; Bulinus globusus and Lymnaea natalensis, the intermediate host of Bilharziasis (chistosomiasis) in the tropical countries. Bilherziasis is a disease prevalent and endermic to tropical Africa, seriously undermining health status of Nigerian youth. The easiest way to eradicate the disease is to eliminate the secondary host of the pathogen, chistosoma species. Therefore we carried out a research to investigate the molluscicidal effect of the leaf extract of C. occidentalis and P. angulata on mortality rate of B. globusus and L. natalensis water snails using pond water in the laboratory of science laboratory department of Kano State Polytechnic, Nigeria. One hundred and fifty juveniles’ snails were collected from Jakara Dam in the Northeastern part of Kano, Nigeria. The snails were put inside a plastic container and transported immediately to the laboratory where they were transferred into reservoir tank containing pond water and kept for 48 hours to get acclimatized with laboratory environment. Twelve water bathes 2/3 filled with pond water were prepared and kept in the laboratory. Leaf extract of the plants were obtained by blending and homogenizing the leaf tissue from which the extract were obtained and prepared in 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 ppm, in addition to 0 ppm, which served as control. Ten snails were placed in each of the twelve water bathes. Six water bathes for the species of C. accidentalis extract and other six for P. angulata. The treatment combinations were maintained for 2 days after which the number of living snails present in each water bathes were counted and subsequently at 2 days intervals. The result indicated that extracts from both plants were lethal to the snails as concentration of the extract increases particularly mortality rate was highest at 40 and 50 ppm. Conclusively the toxicity of the extracts from these plants proven lethal to snails and hence can be used as molluscicides for cheap and easy method of eliminating water snails and therefore reducing the incidence of Bilharziasis.

Keywords: schistosomiasis, bilharziasis, Bulinus globusus, Lymnea natalensis, Physalis angulata, Cassia occidentalis, Kano

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Authors: Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago

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It is currently proven that both extremes of temperature are associated with increased mortality and that air pollution is associated with temperature. This relationship is complex, and in countries with important seasonal variations in weather such as Belgium, some effects can appear as non-significant when the analysis is done over the entire year. We, therefore, analyzed the effect of short-term outdoor air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality during the warmer and colder months separately. We used daily cardiovascular deaths from acute cardiovascular diagnostics according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10: I20-I24, I44-I49, I50, I60-I66) during the period 2008-2013. The environmental data were population-weighted concentrations of particulates with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) (daily average), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (daily maximum of the hourly average) and ozone (O₃) (daily maximum of the 8-hour running mean). A Generalized linear model was applied adjusting for the confounding effect of season, temperature, dew point temperature, the day of the week, public holidays and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risks (RR) were calculated for an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) of the air pollutant (μg/m³). These were presented for the four hottest months (June, July, August, September) and coldest months (November, December, January, February) in Belgium. We applied both individual lag model and unconstrained distributed lag model methods. The cumulative effect of a four-day exposure (day of exposure and three consecutive days) was calculated from the unconstrained distributed lag model. The IQR for PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, NO₂, and O₃ were respectively 8.2, 6.9, 12.9 and 25.5 µg/m³ during warm months and 18.8, 17.6, 18.4 and 27.8 µg/m³ during cold months. The association with CV mortality was statistically significant for the four pollutants during warm months and only for NO₂ during cold months. During the warm months, the cumulative effect of an IQR increase of ozone for the age groups 25-64, 65-84 and 85+ was 1.066 (95%CI: 1.002-1.135), 1.041 (1.008-1.075) and 1.036 (1.013-1.058) respectively. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of NO₂ for the age group 65-84 was 1.066 (1.020-1.114) during warm months and 1.096 (1.030-1.166) during cold months. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of PM₁₀ during warm months reached 1.046 (1.011-1.082) and 1.038 (1.015-1.063) for the age groups 65-84 and 85+ respectively. Similar results were observed for PM₂.₅. The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is greater during warm months for lower pollutant concentrations compared to cold months. Spending more time outside during warm months increases population exposure to air pollution and can, therefore, be a confounding factor for this association. Age can also affect the length of time spent outdoors and the type of physical activity exercised. This study supports the deleterious effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CV) which varies according to season and age groups in Belgium. Public health measures should, therefore, be adapted to seasonality.

Keywords: air pollution, cardiovascular, mortality, season

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Authors: Guler D. Uzel, Andrew G. Parker, Robert L. Mach, Adly Abd-Alla

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Several tsetse fly species (Diptera: Glossinidae) in natural or colonized populations can be infected with the salivary gland hypertrophy virus (SGHV), a circular dsDNA virus (Hytrosaviridae). The virus infection is mainly asymptomatic but, in some species under certain conditions, the infection can produce salivary gland hypertrophy (SGH) symptoms. In the laboratory colonized tsetse, flies with SGH have reduced fertility, which negatively affects colony performance. Therefore, a high prevalence of SGH in insect mass rearing represents a major challenge for tsetse control using the sterile insect technique. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of Glossina pallidipes SGHV infection in various tsetse species on mortality and productivity and its impact on the symbiotic bacteria. Hypertropied salivary glands (SG) were collected from G. pallidipes into phosphate buffered saline (PBS) to prepare suspension; 2 µl aliquots were injected into adults of several tsetse species (G. pallidipes (Gp), G. p. gambiensis (Gpg), G. brevipalpis (Gb), G. morsitans morsitans (Gmm), G. morsitans centralis (Gmc) and G. fuscipes (Gf)) and the change in virus and symbiont titers were analyzed using qPCR. The development of SGH in the F1 was detected by dissection 10 days after emergence and virus infection was confirmed by PCR. The impact of virus infection on fly mortality and productivity was recorded. 2 µl aliquots were also injected into 3rd instar larvae of the different species and the adult SGs assayed by PCR for virus. Virus positive SGs from each species were homogenized in PBS and pooled within species for injection into larvae of the same species. Flies injected with PBS were used as control. Injecting teneral flies with SGHV caused increasing virus titer over time in all species but no SGH was detected. Dissection of the F1 also showed no development of SGH except in Gp (the homologous host). Injection of SGHV did not have any impact on the prevalence of the tsetse symbionts, but an increase in Sodalis titer was observed correlated with fly age regardless of virus infection. The virus infection had a negative impact on productivity and mortality. SGHV injection into larvae of the different species produced SGHV infected glands in the adults determined by PCR with a rate of 60%, 27%, 16%, 7% and 7% for Gp, Gf, Gpg, Gmm and Gmc, respectively. Virus positive SGs observed in the heterologous species were smaller than SGH found in Gp. No virus positive SG was detected by PCR in Gb and no SGH was observed in any adults except in Gp. Injecting virus suspension from the virus positive SGs into conspecific larvae did not produce any adults with infected SGs (except in Gp). SGHV can infect all tested tsetse species. Although the virus can infect and increase in titer in other tsetse species and affect fly mortality and productivity, no vertical virus transmission was observed in other tsetse species with might indicate a transmission barrier in these species, and virus collected from flies injected as larvae was not infective by injection.

Keywords: DNA viruses, glossina, hytrosaviridae, symbiotic bacteria, tsetse

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