Search results for: maternal mortality

Authors: Retno Supriyanti, Teguh Budiono, Yogi Ramadhani, Haris B. Widodo, Arwita Mulyawati

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Cervical cancer is the leading cause of mortality in cancer-related diseases. In this diagnosis doctors usually perform several tests to determine the presence of cervical cancer in a patient. However, these checks require support equipment to get the results in more detail. One is by using ultrasonography. However, for the developing countries most of the existing ultrasonography has a low resolution. The goal of this research is to obtain abnormalities on low-resolution ultrasound images especially for cervical cancer case. In this paper, we emphasize our work to use Image Enhancement for pre-processing image quality improvement. The result shows that pre-processing stage is promising to support further analysis.

Keywords: cervical cancer, mortality, low-resolution, image enhancement.

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Authors: Robert H. Bradley, Robert F. Corwyn

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There is abundant research showing that socio-economic status is implicated in parenting. However, additional factors such as family context, parent personality, parenting history and child behavior also help determine how parents enact the role of caregiver. Each of these factors not only helps determine how a parent will act in a given situation, but each can serve to moderate the influence of the other factors. Personality has long been studied as a factor that influences parental behavior, but it has almost never been considered as a moderator of family contextual factors. For this study, relations between three maternal personality characteristics (agreeableness, extraversion, neuroticism) and four aspects of parenting (harshness, sensitivity, stimulation, learning materials) were examined when children were 6 months, 36 months, and 54 months old and again at 5th grade. Relations between these three aspects of personality and the overall home environment were also examined. A key concern was whether maternal personality characteristics moderated relations between household income and the four aspects of parenting and between household income and the overall home environment. The data for this study were taken from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (NICHD SECCYD). The total sample consisted of 1364 families living in ten different sites in the United States. However, the samples analyzed included only those with complete data on all four parenting outcomes (i.e., sensitivity, harshness, stimulation, and provision of learning materials), income, maternal education and all three measures of personality (i.e., agreeableness, neuroticism, extraversion) at each age examined. Results from hierarchical regression analysis showed that mothers high in agreeableness were more likely to demonstrate sensitivity and stimulation as well as provide more learning materials to their children but were less likely to manifest harshness. Maternal agreeableness also consistently moderated the effects of low income on parental behavior. Mothers high in extraversion were more likely to provide stimulation and learning materials, with extraversion serving as a moderator of low income on both. By contrast, mothers high in neuroticism were less likely to demonstrate positive aspects of parenting and more likely to manifest negative aspects (e.g., harshness). Neuroticism also served to moderate the influence of low income on parenting, especially for stimulation and learning materials. The most consistent effects of parent personality were on the overall home environment, with significant main and interaction effects observed in 11 of the 12 models tested. These findings suggest that it may behoove professional who work with parents living in adverse circumstances to consider parental personality in helping to better target prevention or intervention efforts aimed at supporting parental efforts to act in ways that benefit children.

Keywords: home environment, household income, learning materials, personality, sensitivity, stimulation

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Authors: Abdullah Nurus Salam Khan, Farhana Karim, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, S. Masum Billah, Nabila Zaka, Alexander Manu, Shams El Arifeen

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Globally, pre-eclampsia (PE) and ante-partum haemorrhage (APH) are two major causes of maternal mortality. Prompt identification and management of these conditions depend on competency of the birth attendants. Since these conditions are infrequent to be observed, clinical vignette based assessment could identify the extent of health worker’s competence in managing emergency obstetric care (EmOC). During June-August 2016, competence of 39 medical officers (MO) and 95 nurses working in obstetric ward of 15 government health facilities (3 district hospital, 12 sub-district hospital) was measured using clinical vignettes on PE and APH. The vignettes resulted in three outcome measures: total vignette scores, scores for diagnosis component, and scores for management component. T-test was conducted to compare mean vignette scores and linear regression was conducted to measure the strength and association of vignette scores with different cadres of health workers, facility’s readiness for EmOC and average annual utilization of normal deliveries after adjusting for type of health facility, health workers’ work experience, training status on managing maternal complication. For each of the seven component of EmOC items (administration of injectable antibiotics, oxytocic and anticonvulsant; manual removal of retained placenta, retained products of conception; blood transfusion and caesarean delivery), if any was practised in the facility within last 6 months, a point was added and cumulative EmOC readiness score (range: 0-7) was generated for each facility. The yearly utilization of delivery cases were identified by taking the average of all normal deliveries conducted during three years (2013-2015) preceding the survey. About 31% of MO and all nurses were female. Mean ( ± sd) age of the nurses were higher than the MO (40.0 ± 6.9 vs. 32.2 ± 6.1 years) and also longer mean( ± sd) working experience (8.9 ± 7.9 vs. 1.9 ± 3.9 years). About 80% health workers received any training on managing maternal complication, however, only 7% received any refresher’s training within last 12 months. The overall vignette score was 8.8 (range: 0-19), which was significantly higher among MO than nurses (10.7 vs. 8.1, p < 0.001) and the score was not associated with health facility types, training status and years of experience of the providers. Vignette score for management component (range: 0-9) increased with higher annual average number of deliveries in their respective working facility (adjusted β-coefficient 0.16, CI 0.03-0.28, p=0.01) and increased with each unit increase in EmOC readiness score (adjusted β-coefficient 0.44, CI 0.04-0.8, p=0.03). The diagnosis component of vignette score was not associated with any of the factors except it was higher among the MO than the nurses (adjusted β-coefficient 1.2, CI 0.13-2.18, p=0.03). Lack of competence in diagnosing and managing obstetric complication by the nurses than the MO is of concern especially when majority of normal deliveries are conducted by the nurses. Better EmOC preparedness of the facility and higher utilization of normal deliveries resulted in higher vignette score for the management component; implying the impact of experiential learning through higher case management. Focus should be given on improving the facility readiness for EmOC and providing the health workers periodic refresher’s training to make them more competent in managing obstetric cases.

Keywords: Bangladesh, emergency obstetric care, clinical vignette, competence of health workers

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Authors: Ghulam Zahra

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Parenting style affects the morality of their children. There is plenty of evidence to support the effect of parenting styles on the morality of their children. Therefore, this research is considered essential and suitable. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the correlation between the parenting style of mothers and the moral development of primary school students. The population consisted of all primary school students enrolled in the province of Punjab. The sample was comprised of twelve hundred thirty-nine primary school students. One questionnaire was adapted to explore the parenting styles of mothers and to assess the level of students’ level of morality; a moral development scale was adopted. The conclusions showed that there was a significant correlation exist among authoritarian parenting style, permissive parenting, and moral developments. Based on findings, it is recommended that parents should follow a warm style of parenting for the sake of the moral development of their children.

Keywords: maternal parenting style, moral development, authoritative parenting, authoritarian parenting, permissive parenting

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Authors: Mompi Sharma, Labananda Choudhury, Anjana M. Saikia

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Background: The period life table is entirely based on the assumption that the mortality patterns of the population existing in the given period will persist throughout their lives. However, it has been observed that the mortality rate continues to decline. As such, if the rates of change of probabilities of death are considered in a life table then we get a dynamic life table. Although, mortality has been declining in all parts of India, one may be interested to know whether these declines had appeared more in an urban area of underdeveloped regions like North-Eastern India. So, attempt has been made to know the mortality pattern and the life expectancy under dynamic scenario in Guwahati, the biggest city of North Eastern India. Further, if the probabilities of death changes then there is a possibility that its different constituent probabilities will also change. Since cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Guwahati. Therefore, an attempt has also been made to formulate dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Objectives: To construct dynamic life table for Guwahati for the year 2011 based on the rates of change of probabilities of death over the previous 10 and 25 years (i.e.,2001 and 1986) and to compute corresponding dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Methodology and Data: The study uses the method proposed by Denton and Spencer (2011) to construct dynamic life table for Guwahati. So, the data from the Office of the Birth and Death, Guwahati Municipal Corporation for the years 1986, 2001 and 2011 are taken. The population based data are taken from 2001 and 2011 census (India). However, the population data for 1986 has been estimated. Also, the cause of death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD are computed for the aforementioned years and then extended to dynamic set up for the year 2011 by considering the rates of change of those probabilities over the previous 10 and 25 years. Findings: The dynamic life expectancy at birth (LEB) for Guwahati is found to be higher than the corresponding values in the period table by 3.28 (5.65) years for males and 8.30 (6.37) years for females during the period of 10 (25) years. The life expectancies under dynamic consideration in all the other age groups are also seen higher than the usual life expectancies, which may be possible due to gradual decline in probabilities of death since 1986-2011. Further, a continuous decline has also been observed in death ratio due to CVD along with cause specific probabilities of death for both sexes. As a consequence, dynamic cause of death probability due to CVD is found to be less in comparison to usual procedure. Conclusion: Since incorporation of changing mortality rates in period life table for Guwahati resulted in higher life expectancies and lower probabilities of death due to CVD, this would possibly bring out the real situation of deaths prevailing in the city.

Keywords: cause specific death ratio, cause specific probabilities of death, dynamic, life expectancy

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Authors: Reza Sadeghi, Maryam Nazarahari

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Due to the numerous side effects of chemical pesticides, in this research, to provide the practical use of herbal compounds, the extracts of the two plants of thyme and eucalyptus were extracted by using water, 70% ethanol, and n-hexane solvents via percolation method and then formulated as wettable powders. The mortality rates of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) were investigated under different concentrations of ethanolic, hexanic, and aqueous extracts of thyme and eucalyptus and their formulations in laboratory conditions. The results showed that the used concentrations, types of solvents, and sorts of formulations significantly affected the mortality rates of cotton bollworm larvae during the exposure period of 24 h.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, eucalyptus, formulation, thyme, toxicity

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Tri Murti, Muhammad Hanafiah Juni, Hejar Abdul Rahman, Salmiah Binti Said

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The diarrhoeal disease continues to be a leading cause of childhood mortality in countries such as Indonesia, where it is estimated to be responsible for 300,000 deaths annually in children under the age of years. Morbidity survey the Ministry of Health of Indonesia from 2000 to 2010 showed incidence diarrhoea remains a leading cause of infant mortality. Causes of death from diarrhoea is related to poor governance both at home and in health facilities. Despite the improvement of health facilities and government effort to reduce the occurrence of diarrhoea among children and death from diarrhoea, the incidence of diarrhoea among children area still high.

Keywords: management diarrheal disease, practices mother, treatment, diarrhoea among children

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Authors: Christos E. Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Vicky Dradaki, Irini Dri, Tamta Sirbilatze, Ifigenia Apostolou, Christina Kordali, Konstantina Panouria, Kostas Argyros, Georgios Mavras

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Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is related to increased morbidity and mortality. Purpose of our study was to assess nutritional status of hospitalized, elderly patients with various nutritional scores and to detect unfavorable prognostic factors, related to increased mortality and extended duration of admission. Methods: 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2) were included in this cross-sectional study. Nutritional status was assessed by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA full, short-form), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and short Nutritional Appetite Questionnaire (sNAQ). The following data were incorporated in analysis: Anthropometric and laboratory data, physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaires, IPAQ), smoking status, dietary habits and mediterranean diet (assessed by MedDiet score), cause and duration of current admission, medical history (co-morbidities, previous admissions). Primary endpoints were the mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of admission, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Mann-Whitney two-sample statistics or t-test was used for group comparisons and Spearman or Pearson coefficients for testing correlation between variables. Results: Normal nutrition was assessed in 54/150 (36%), 92/150 (61.3%) and in 106/150 (70.7%) of patients, according to full MNA, MUST and sNAQ questionnaires respectively. Mortality rate was 20.7% (31/150 patients). The patients who died until 6 months after admission had lower BMI (24±4.4 vs 26±4.8, p=0.04) and albumin levels (2.9±0.7 vs 3.4±0.7, p=0.002), significantly lower full MNA (14.5±7.3 vs 20.7±6, p<0.0001) and short-form MNA scores (7.3±4.2 vs 10.5±3.4, p=0.0002) compared to non-dead one. In contrast, the aforementioned patients had higher MUST (2.5±1.8 vs 0.5±1.02, p=<0.0001) and sNAQ scores (2.9±2.4 vs 1.1±1.3, p<0.0001). Additionally, they showed significantly lower MedDiet (23.5±4.3 vs 31.1±5.6, p<0.0001) and IPAQ scores (37.2±156.2 vs 516.5±1241.7, p<0.0001) compared to remaining one. These patients had extended hospitalization [5 (0-13) days vs 0 (-1-3) days, p=0.001]. Patients who admitted due to cancer depicted higher mortality rate (10/13, 77%), compared to those who admitted due to infections (12/73, 18%), stroke (4/15, 27%) or other causes (4/49, 8%) (p<0.0001). Extension of hospitalization was negatively correlated to both full (Spearman r=-0.35, p<0.0001) and short-form MNA (Spearman r=-0.33, p<0.0001) and positively correlated to MUST (Spearman r=0.34, p<0.0001) and sNAQ (Spearman r=0.3, p=0.0002). Additionally, the extension was inversely related to MedDiet score (Spearman r=-0.35, p<0.0001), IPAQ score (Spearman r=-0.34, p<0.0001), albumin levels (Pearson r=-0.36, p<0.0001), Ht (Pearson r=-0.2, p=0.02) and Hb (Pearson r=-0.18, p=0.02). Conclusion: A great proportion of elderly, hospitalized patients are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. All nutritional scores, physical activity and albumin are significantly related to mortality and increased hospitalization.

Keywords: dietary habits, duration of admission, malnutrition, prognostic factors for mortality

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Authors: M. G. Talasbayen, N. N. Dyussenbayev, Y. D. Kali, R. A. Zholbarysov, Y. N. Duissenbayev, I. Z. Mammadinova, S. M. Nuradilov

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Background. Hemorrhagic stroke is an acute cerebrovascular accident resulting from rupture of a cerebral vessel or increased permeability of the wall and imbibition of blood into the brain parenchyma. Arterial hypertension is a common cause of hemorrhagic stroke. Male gender and age over 55 years is a risk factor for intracerebral hemorrhage. Treatment of intracerebral hemorrhage is aimed at the primary pathophysiological link: the relief of coagulopathy and the control of arterial hypertension. Early surgical treatment can limit cerebral compression; prevent toxic effects of blood to the brain parenchyma. Despite progress in the development of neuroimaging data, the use of minimally invasive techniques, and navigation system, mortality from intracerebral hemorrhage remains high. Materials and methods. The study included 78 patients (62.82% male and 37.18% female) with a verified diagnosis of hemorrhagic stroke in the period from 2019 to 2021. The age of patients ranged from 25 to 80 years, the average age was 54.66±11.9 years. Demographic, brain CT data (localization, volume of hematomas), methods of treatment, and disease outcome were analyzed. Results. The retrospective analyze demonstrate that 78.2% of all patients underwent surgical treatment: decompressive craniectomy in 37.7%, craniotomy with hematoma evacuation in 29.5%, and hematoma draining in 24.59% cases. The study of the proportion of deaths, depending on the volume of intracerebral hemorrhage, shows that the number of deaths was higher in the group with a hematoma volume of more than 60 ml. Evaluation of the relationship between the time before surgery and mortality demonstrates that the most favorable outcome is observed during surgical treatment in the interval from 3 to 24 hours. Mortality depending on age did not reveal a significant difference between age groups. An analysis of the impact of the surgery type on mortality reveals that decompressive craniectomy with or without hematoma evacuation led to an unfavorable outcome in 73.9% of cases, while craniotomy with hematoma evacuation and drainage led to mortality only in 28.82% cases. Conclusion. Even though the multimodal approaches, the development of surgical techniques and equipment, and the selection of optimal conservative therapy, the question of determining the tactics of managing and treating hemorrhagic strokes is still controversial. Nevertheless, our experience shows that surgical intervention within 24 hours from the moment of admission and craniotomy with hematoma evacuation improves the prognosis of treatment outcomes.

Keywords: hemorragic stroke, Intracerebral hemorrhage, surgical treatment, stroke mortality

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Authors: Fatima Huda Hallak

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The current study aimed to evaluate the activity of bacterial insecticide Vertinic against the second star larvae of Trogoderma granarium (Everts) by four treatments: A, B, C, D, at seven concentrations: 0.001, 0.01, 0.1,1,10,100,1000 PPM. The mortality rate of larvae was 100% at concentrations 10 and 100 in treatments A and B after 24 hours and after 48 hours in treatment D at 1 PPM. The efficiency of treatment A was greater as compared to treatment B at all concentrations and all exposure times. The efficiency of treatment D was greater as compared to treatment C; for example, at 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 PPM, after 120 hours, the Mortality rate of larve was 6.76, 13.33, 43.33, 100% in treatment D, which it was 0.00, 0.00, 23.33, 96.67%, respectively in the treatment C.

Keywords: bacterial insecticide, trogoderma granarium (everts), fourth star larvae, vertimic

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Authors: Zeliha Erdogan, Hatice Torcu Koc

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The fish, Sarpa salpa (L.), is one of the main macroherbivores in the Mediterranean. A total of 600 Salema individuals were collected from around Gökçeada, Sea of Northern Aegean, between January 2014 and January 2015 in order to evaluate some information on the biology of the Salema population. For this aim, measurements of the Salema were obtained using a caliper. The age readings were made from otoliths. The population was composed of 6 age classes (I-VI). The total lengths and total weights of sampled fish were determined to be ranged from 12.5 to 33.1 cm and 33.57 to 559.33 g, respectively. Length-weight relationship for all individuals was calculated as W=0.0085*L3.1723, R2=0.9524. Growth parameters were determined as L∞= 35.55cm, k=0.31, t0= -9.2, '=2.60. As the sexual ratio was 1.08:1 (M: F), the Salema population consisted of 51.66% male and 47.5% female individuals. The highest average condition factors were observed for females in May (1.68) and for males in May (1.67). According to gonad somatic index values, the spawning period was determined twice a year in spring (April) and autumn (October). The highest average hepatosomatix index value was observed for all individuals in May and December. It was estimated that total (Z) mortality, natural (M) mortality, and fishing (F) mortality rates were Z=0.44 year-1, M=0.064 year-1 and F=0.38 year-1, respectively. As the exploitation rate was estimated as E=0.86, it can be shown that the Salema stock was highly influenced by overfishing.

Keywords: biology, sarpa salpa, Gökceada, meadows

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Authors: Suboohi Nasrin, MHD. Shahid, Abduraheem K.

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India is a tropical country, and it is estimated that biological and abiological agents are the major factors in the destruction and deterioration of archival materials like herbarium, paper, cellulose, bookbinding, etc. Silverfish, German Cockroaches, Termites, Booklice, Tobacco beetle and Carpet beetles are the common insect's pests in the museum, which causes deterioration to collections of museum specimens. Among them, silverfish is one of the most notorious pests and primarily responsible for the deterioration of Archival materials. So far, the investigation has been carried to overcome this existing problem as different management strategies such as chemical insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, nematicides, etc., have been applied. Moreover, Synthetic molecules lead to affect the ecological balance, have a detrimental effects on human health, reduce the beneficial microbial flora and fauna, etc. With a view, numbers of chemicals have been banned and advised not to be used due to their long-lasting persistency in soil ecosystem, water and carcinogenic. That’s why the authors used natural products with biocidal activity, cost-effective and eco-friendly approaches. In this study, various concentrations (30, 60 and 90 ml/L) of clove and lemongrass essential oil at different treatment duration (30, 60, 90 and 120-minutes) were investigated to test its properties as a silverfish repellent and insecticidal effect. The result of two ways ANOVA revealed that the mortality was significantly influenced by oil concentration, treatment duration and interaction between two independent factors was also found significant. The mortality rate increased with increasing the oil concentration in clove oil, and 100 % mortality was recorded in 0.9 ml at 120-minute. It was also observed that the treatment duration has the highest effect on the mortality rate of silverfish. The clove oil had the greatest effect on the silverfish in comparison to lemongrass. While in the case of percentage, repellency of adult silverfish was oil concentration and treatment duration-dependent, i.e., increase in concentration and treatment duration resulted in higher repellency percentage. The clove oil was found more effective, showing maximum repellency of 80.00% at 0.9ml/cm2 (highest) concentration, and in lemongrass highest repellency was observed at 33.4% at 0.9 ml/cm2 concentration in the treated area.

Keywords: adult silverfish, oils, oil concentration, treatment duration, mortality (%) and repellency

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Authors: Karolina Rutkowska, Hubert Pausch, Jolanta Oprzadek, Krzysztof Flisikowski

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The placenta is one of the most important organs that plays a crucial role in the fetal growth and development. Placenta dysfunction is one of the primary cause of the intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). Cattle have the cotyledonary placenta which consists of two anatomical parts: fetal and maternal. In the case of cattle during the first months of pregnancy, it is very easy to separate maternal caruncle from fetal cotyledon tissue, easier in fact than removing an ordinary glove from one's hand. Which in fact make easier to conduct tissue-specific molecular studies. Typically, animal models for the study of IUGR are created using surgical methods and malnutrition of the pregnant mother or in the case of mice by genetic modifications. However, proposed cattle model with MIMT1Del/WT deletion is unique because it was created without any surgical methods what significantly distinguish it from the other animal models. The primary objective of the study was to identify differential expression of selected miRNAs in the placenta from normal and intrauterine growth restricted fetuses. There was examined the expression of miRNA in the fetal and maternal part of the placenta from 24 fetuses (12 samples from the fetal part of the placenta and 12 samples from maternal part of the placenta). In the study, there was done miRNAs sequencing in the placenta of MIMT1Del/WT fetuses and MIMT1WT/WT fetuses. Then, there were selected miRNAs that are involved in fetal growth and development. Analysis of miRNAs expression was conducted on ABI7500 machine. miRNAs expression was analyzed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). As the reference gene was used SNORD47. The results were expressed as 2ΔΔCt: ΔΔCt = (Ctij − CtSNORD47j) − (Cti1 − CtSNORD471). Where Ctij and CtSNORD47j are the Ct values for gene i and for SNORD47 in a sample (named j); Cti1 and CtSNORD471 are the Ct values in sample 1. Differences between groups were evaluated with analysis of variance by using One-Way ANOVA. Bonferroni’s tests were used for interpretation of the data. All normalised miRNA expression values are expressed on a value of natural logarithm. The data were expressed as least squares mean with standard errors. Significance was declared when P < 0.05. The study shows that miRNAs expression depends on the part of the placenta where they origin (fetal or maternal) and on the genotype of the animal. miRNAs offer a particularly new approach to study IUGR. Corresponding tissue samples were collected according to the standard veterinary protocols according to the European Union Normative for Care and Use of Experimental Animals. All animal experiments were approved by the Animal Ethics Committee of the State Provincial Office of Southern Finland (ESAVI-2010-08583/YM-23).

Keywords: placenta, intrauterine growth restriction, miRNA, cattle

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Authors: Jirapat Suriyachaisawat, Ekkit Surakarn

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Introduction: To improve early detection and mortality rate of In- Hospital Cardiac arrest, Emergency Response Team (ERT) system was planned and implemented since June 2009 to detect pre-arrest conditions and for any concerns. The ERT consisted of on duty physicians and nurses from emergency department. ERT calling criteria consisted of acute change of HR < 40 or > 130 beats per minute, systolic blood pressure < 90mmHg, respiratory rate <8 or > 28 breaths per minute, O2 saturation < 90%, acute change in conscious state, acute chest pain or worried about the patients. From the data on ERT system implementation in our hospital in early phase (during June 2009-2011), there was no statistic significance in difference in In-Hospital cardiac arrest incidence and overall hospital mortality rate. Since the introduction of the ERT service in our hospital, we have conducted continuous educational campaign to improve awareness in an attempt to increase use of the service. Methods: To investigate outcome of ERT system in In-Hospital cardiac arrest and overall hospital mortality rate. We conducted a prospective, controlled before-and after examination of the long term effect of a ERT system on the incidence of cardiac arrest. We performed Chi -square analysis to find statistic significance. Results: Of a total 623 ERT cases from June 2009 until December 2012, there were 72 calls in 2009, 196 calls in 2010 ,139 calls in 2011 and 245 calls in 2012.The number of ERT calls per 1000 admissions in year 2009-10 was 7.69, 5.61 in 2011 and 9.38 in 2013. The number of Code blue calls per 1000 admissions decreased significantly from 2.28 to 0.99 per 1000 admissions (P value < 0.001). The incidence of cardiac arrest decreased progressively from 1.19 to 0.34 per 1000 admissions and significant in difference in year 2012 (P value < 0.001). The overall hospital mortality rate decreased by 8 % from 15.43 to 14.43 per 1000 admissions (P value 0.095). Conclusions: ERT system implementation was associated with progressive reduction in cardiac arrests over three year period, especially statistic significant in difference in 4th year after implementation. We also found an inverse association between number of ERT use and the risk of occurrence of cardiac arrests, But we have not found difference in overall hospital mortality rate.

Keywords: emergency response team, ERT, cardiac arrest, emergency medicine

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Authors: Jirapat Suriyachaisawat, Ekkit Surakarn

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Introduction: To improve early detection and mortality rate of in-hospital cardiac arrest, Emergency Response Team (ERT) system was planned and implemented since June 2009 to detect pre-arrest conditons and for any concerns. The ERT consisted of on duty physicians and nurses from emergency department. ERT calling criteria consisted of acute change of HR < 40 or > 130 beats per minute, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, respiratory rate <8 or >28 breaths per minute, O2 saturation <90%, acute change in conscious state, acute chest pain or worry about the patients. From the data on ERT system implementation in our hospital in early phase (during June 2009-2011), there was no statistic significance in difference in in-hospital cardiac arrest incidence and overall hospital mortality rate. Since the introduction of the ERT service in our hospital, we have conducted continuous educational campaign to improve awareness in an attempt to increase use of the service. Methods: To investigate outcome of ERT system in in-hospital cardiac arrest and overall hospital mortality rate, we conducted a prospective, controlled before-and after examination of the long term effect of a ERT system on the incidence of cardiac arrest. We performed chi-square analysis to find statistic significance. Results: Of a total 623 ERT cases from June 2009 until December 2012, there were 72 calls in 2009, 196 calls in 2010, 139 calls in 2011 and 245 calls in 2012. The number of ERT calls per 1000 admissions in year 2009-10 was 7.69; 5.61 in 2011 and 9.38 in 2013. The number of code blue calls per 1000 admissions decreased significantly from 2.28 to 0.99 per 1000 admissions (P value < 0.001). The incidence of cardiac arrest decreased progressively from 1.19 to 0.34 per 1000 admissions and significant in difference in year 2012 (P value < 0.001 ). The overall hospital mortality rate decreased by 8 % from 15.43 to 14.43 per 1000 admissions (P value 0.095). Conclusions: ERT system implementation was associated with progressive reduction in cardiac arrests over three year period, especially statistic significant in difference in 4th year after implementation. We also found an inverse association between number of ERT use and the risk of occurrence of cardiac arrests, but we have not found difference in overall hospital mortality rate.

Keywords: cardiac arrest, outcome, in-hospital, ERT

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Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Stroke is associated with a significant risk of morbidity and mortality. There is scarcity of research on the long-term survival after first-ever ischaemic stroke (IS) events in England with regards to effects of different medical therapies and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to model the all-cause mortality after an IS diagnosis in the adult population of England. Using a retrospective case-control design, we extracted the electronic medical records of patients born prior to or in year 1960 in England with a first-ever ischaemic stroke diagnosis from January 1986 to January 2017 within the Health and Improvement Network (THIN) database. Participants with a history of ischaemic stroke were matched to 3 controls by sex and age at diagnosis and general practice. The primary outcome was the all-cause mortality. The hazards of the all-cause mortality were estimated using a Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a shared random effect of general practice. The model included sex, birth cohort, socio-economic status, comorbidities and medical therapies. 20,250 patients with a history of IS (cases) and 55,519 controls were followed up to 30 years. From 2008 to 2015, the one-year all-cause mortality for the IS patients declined with an absolute change of -0.5%. Preventive treatments to cases increased considerably over time. These included prescriptions of statins and antihypertensives. However, prescriptions for antiplatelet drugs decreased in the routine general practice since 2010. The survival model revealed a survival benefit of antiplatelet treatment to stroke survivors with hazard ratio (HR) of 0.92 (0.90 – 0.94). IS diagnosis had significant interactions with gender and age at entry and hypertension diagnosis. IS diagnosis was associated with high risk of all-cause mortality with HR= 3.39 (3.05-3.72) for cases compared to controls. Hypertension was associated with poor survival with HR = 4.79 (4.49 - 5.09) for hypertensive cases relative to non-hypertensive controls, though the detrimental effect of hypertension has not reached significance for hypertensive controls, HR = 1.19(0.82-1.56). This study of English primary care data showed that between 2008 and 2015, the rates of prescriptions of stroke preventive treatments increased, and a short-term all-cause mortality after IS stroke declined. However, stroke resulted in poor long-term survival. Hypertension, a modifiable risk factor, was found to be associated with poor survival outcomes in IS patients. Antiplatelet drugs were found to be protective to survival. Better efforts are required to reduce the burden of stroke through health service development and primary prevention.

Keywords: general practice, hazard ratio, health improvement network (THIN), ischaemic stroke, multiple imputation, Weibull-Cox model.

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Authors: Josiane Yaguibou, Ngoy Kishimba, Issiaka V. Coulibaly, Sabrina Pestilli, Falinirina Razanalison, Hantanirina Andremanisa

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Background: Madagascar has one of the least developed road networks in the world with a majority of its national and local roads being earth roads and in poor condition. In addition, the country is affected by frequent natural disasters that further affect the road conditions limiting the accessibility to some parts of the country. In 2021 and 2022, 2.21 million people were affected by drought in the Grand Sud region, and by cyclones and floods in the coastal regions, with disruptions of the health system including last mile distribution of lifesaving maternal health commodities and reproductive health commodities in the health facilities. Program intervention: The intervention uses drone technology to deliver maternal health and family planning commodities in hard-to-reach health facilities in the Grand Sud and Sud-Est of Madagascar, the regions more affected by natural disasters. Methodology The intervention was developed in two phases. A first phase, conducted in the Grand Sud, used drones leased from a private company to deliver commodities in isolated health facilities. Based on the lesson learnt and encouraging results of the first phase, in the second phase (2023) the intervention has been extended to the Sud Est regions with the purchase of drones and the recruitment of pilots to reduce costs and ensure sustainability. Key findings: The drones ensure deliveries of lifesaving commodities in the Grand Sud of Madagascar. In 2023, 297 deliveries in commodities in forty hard-to-reach health facilities have been carried out. Drone technology reduced delivery times from the usual 3 - 7 days necessary by road or boat to only a few hours. Program Implications: The use of innovative drone technology demonstrated to be successful in the Madagascar context to reduce dramatically the distribution time of commodities in hard-to-reach health facilities and avoid stockouts of life-saving medicines. When the intervention reaches full scale with the completion of the second phase and the extension in the Sud-Est, 150 hard-to-reach facilities will receive drone deliveries, avoiding stockouts and improving the quality of maternal health and family planning services offered to 1,4 million people in targeted areas.

Keywords: commodities, drones, last-mile distribution, lifesaving supplies

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Authors: Nyussupova Gulnara, Kenespayeva Laura, Kelinbayeva Roza, Aubakirova Gaukhar, Zhumagulov Chingiz, Aidarkhanova Gaukhar

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The article analyzes the development of demographic processes in four regions of the Western region of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Aktobe, Atyrau, West Kazakhstan, and Mangystau) for the period from 2000 to 2022. This study uses theoretical and methodological analysis of scientific literature, methods of comparative, statistical analysis, GIS methods, grouping and systematization, index method and structural analysis. The research identified regional characteristics, development trends, and disproportions in the population of the studied areas within the framework of sustainable demographic development. The population dynamics, the age-sex structure of the population, life expectancy, natural movement of the population, including maternal and infant mortality, are considered as important indicators of the region’s sustainability. The features of migration processes in the Western region of Kazakhstan and the factors that determine them are identified. Conclusions are drawn about the level of sustainable development of the population of the studied region based on demographic processes. The results obtained will provide scientific, methodological and information support in the sectors of economics and science, including the preparation of socio-economic development programs and the development of scientific research using GIS.

Keywords: sustainable development, demographic processes, Western Region, Republic of Kazakhstan, population structure, natural population movement, migration

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Authors: Jibran Abbasy, Rizwan Sultan, Ammar Humayun, Tabish Chawla

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Background: Hydatid disease caused by Echinococcus Granulosus affects liver in 70-90% of cases. Dogs are the definitive host while humans are the accidental host. Modalities used for its treatment are especially important for our population as the disease is endemic in many Asian countries. The aim of the study was to perform an audit of the various modalities used for treatment of hydatid disease of liver and the response to each modality in tertiary care center of Pakistan. Materials and Methods: Retrospective audit of patients diagnosed and treated for Hydatid disease of the liver at Aga Khan University Hospital from 1st January 2007 to 31st December 2014 was completed. All patients aged 16 and above were included. Patients who had extra hepatic disease and missing records were excluded. Outcome measures were morbidity, mortality and recurrence of the disease. Results: During the study period 56 patients were treated for isolated hepatic hydatid disease and were included. Mean age was 39 years with 48% being females and 52% males. Most common presenting complaint was abdominal pain seen in 53% of patients(n=41). Duration of symptoms was less than 6 months in 74% (n=38). Mostly right lobe was involved in 69% (n=38).Most common treatment modality used was surgery in 34 patients followed by PAIR in 14 patients while 8 patients were treated medically. At a median follow up of 34 months recurrence was seen in 2 patients treated with PAIR while no patient treated with surgery had recurrence with the median follow up of 20 months. While no morbidity and mortality were observed in PAIR, but in surgery 5 patients had morbidity while 1 patient had mortality. Conclusion: Our data is comparative to other studies in terms of morbidity, mortality, and recurrence. We had adequate follow up. In our study PAIR and surgery both are effective and have less complications and recurrence rate. Surgery is still the gold standard in terms of recurrence.

Keywords: echinococcous granulosus, puncture aspiration irrigation reaspiration (PAIR), surgery, hydatid disease

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Authors: Morteza Gharibi, Abdolghader Pakniat, Somayeh Bahrampouri

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Introduction: Emergency department (E.R.) crowding is a serious widespread problem in hospitals that leads to irregularities, a slower rate of delivery of services to patients, and a long-term stay. In addition, the long-term stay in the E.D. reduces the possibility of providing services with appropriate quality to other patients who are undergoing medical emergencies, which leads to dissatisfaction among patients. This study aimed to determine the relationship between ED-crowding and the mortality rate of the patients referred to the E.D. In a retrospective cohort study, all patients who expired in first 24 hours of admission were enrolled in the study. Crowding index at the moment of admission was calculated using Edwin Score. The data including history and physical examination, time of arrival in the E.D., diagnosis (using ICD 10 code), time of death, cause of death, demographic information was recoded based on triage forms on admission and patients’ medical files. Data analysis was performed by using descriptive statistics and chi square test, ANOVA tests using SPSS ver. 19. The time of arrival in E.D. to death in crowded E.D. conditions, with an average of five hours and 25 minutes, was significantly higher than the average admission Time of arrival in E.D. to death in active and crowded E.D. conditions. More physicians and nurses can be employed during crowded times to reduce staff fatigue and improve their performance during these hours.

Keywords: mortality, emergency, department, crowding

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Authors: Yash Bingi, Yiqiao Yin

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Reduction of child mortality is an ongoing struggle and a commonly used factor in determining progress in the medical field. The under-5 mortality number is around 5 million around the world, with many of the deaths being preventable. In light of this issue, Cardiotocograms (CTGs) have emerged as a leading tool to determine fetal health. By using ultrasound pulses and reading the responses, CTGs help healthcare professionals assess the overall health of the fetus to determine the risk of child mortality. However, interpreting the results of the CTGs is time-consuming and inefficient, especially in underdeveloped areas where an expert obstetrician is hard to come by. Using a support vector machine (SVM) and oversampling, this paper proposed a model that classifies fetal health with an accuracy of 99.59%. To further explain the CTG measurements, an algorithm based on Randomized Input Sampling for Explanation ((RISE) of Black-box Models was created, called Feature Alteration for explanation of Black Box Models (FAB), and compared the findings to Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME). This allows doctors and medical professionals to classify fetal health with high accuracy and determine which features were most influential in the process.

Keywords: machine learning, fetal health, gradient boosting, support vector machine, Shapley values, local interpretable model agnostic explanations

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Authors: Raj Raghupathy

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Recurrent Spontaneous Miscarriage (RSM) is a common form of pregnancy loss, 50% of which are due to ‘unexplained’ causes. Evidence exists to suggest that RSM may be caused by immunologic factors such as cytokines which are critical molecules of the immune system, with an impressive array of capabilities. An association appears to exist between Th2-type reactivity (mediated by Th2 or anti-inflammatory cytokines) and normal, successful pregnancy, and between unexplained RSM and Th1 cytokine dominance. If pro-inflammatory cytokines are indeed associated with pregnancy loss, the suppression of these cytokines, and thus the ‘redirection’ of maternal reactivity, may help prevent cytokine-mediated pregnancy loss. The objective of this study was to explore the possibility of modulating cytokine production using Dydrogesterone (Duphaston®), an orally-administered progestogen. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 34 women with a history of at least 3 unexplained recurrent miscarriages were stimulated in vitro with a mitogen (to elicit cytokine production) in the presence and absence of dydrogesterone. Levels of selected pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines produced by peripheral blood mononuclear cells were measured after exposure to these progestogens. Dydrogesterone down-regulates the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines and up-regulates the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines. The ratios of Th2 to Th1 cytokines are markedly elevated in the presence of dydrogesterone, indicating a shift from potentially harmful maternal Th1 reactivity to a more pregnancy-conducive Th2 profile. We used a progesterone receptor antagonist to show that this cytokine-modulating effect of dydrogesterone is mediated via the progesterone receptor. Dydrogesterone also induces the production of the Progesterone-Induced Blocking Factor (PIBF); lymphocytes exposed to PIBF produce higher levels of Th2 cytokines, affecting a Th1 → Th2 cytokine shift which could be favourable to the success of pregnancy. We conclude that modulation of maternal cytokine production profiles is possible with dydrogesterone which has the merits that it can be administered orally and that it is safe.

Keywords: cytokines, dydrogesterone, progesterone, recurrent spontaneous miscarriage

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Tetyana Kendzerska, David T. Zhu, Michael Pugliese, Douglas Manuel, Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Marcus Povitz, Therese A. Stukel, Teresa To, Shawn D. Aaron, Sunita Mulpuru, Melanie Chin, Claire E. Kendall, Kednapa Thavorn, Rebecca Robillard, Andrea S. Gershon

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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) remains unknown. To compare observed and expected (projected based on previous years) trends in all-cause mortality and healthcare use for ACSCs in the first year of the pandemic (March 2020 - March 2021). A population-based study using provincial health administrative data.General adult population (Ontario, Canada). Monthly all-cause mortality, and hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) and outpatient visit rates (per 100,000 people at-risk) for seven combined ACSCs (asthma, COPD, angina, congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy) during the first year were compared with similar periods in previous years (2016-2019) by fitting monthly time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models. Compared to previous years, all-cause mortality rates increased at the beginning of the pandemic (observed rate in March-May 2020 of 79.98 vs. projected of 71.24 [66.35-76.50]) and then returned to expected in June 2020—except among immigrants and people with mental health conditions where they remained elevated. Hospitalization and ED visit rates for ACSCs remained lower than projected throughout the first year: observed hospitalization rate of 37.29 vs. projected of 52.07 (47.84-56.68); observed ED visit rate of 92.55 vs. projected of 134.72 (124.89-145.33). ACSC outpatient visit rates decreased initially (observed rate of 4,299.57 vs. projected of 5,060.23 [4,712.64-5,433.46]) and then returned to expected in June 2020. Reductions in outpatient visits for ACSCs at the beginning of the pandemic combined with reduced hospital admissions may have been associated with temporally increased mortality—disproportionately experienced by immigrants and those with mental health conditions. The Ottawa Hospital Academic Medical Organization

Keywords: COVID-19, chronic disease, all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, outpatient visits, modelling, population-based study, asthma, COPD, angina, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, epilepsy

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Authors: Davod Ahmadigheidari

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The main objective of this study was to explore prevalence of anthropometric indicators as well the factors associated with the anthropometric indications in Mali. Data on 2015, downloaded from the website of Unicef, were analyzed. A total of 16,467 women (ages 15-49 years) and 16,467 children (ages 0-59 months) were selected for the sample. Different statistical analyses, such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression form the basis of this study. Child anthropometric indicators (i.e., wasting, stunting, underweight and BMI for age) were used as the dependent variables. SPSS Syntax from WHO was used to create anthropometric indicators. Different factors, such as child’s sex, child’s age groups, child’s diseases symptoms (i.e., diarrhea, cough and fever), maternal education, household wealth index and area of residence were used as independent variables. Results showed more than forty percent of Malian households were in nutritional crises (stunting (42%) and underweight (34%). Findings from logistic regression analyses indicated that low score of wealth index, low maternal education and experience of diarrhea in last two weeks increase the probability of child malnutrition.

Keywords: Mali, wasting, stunting, underweight, BMI for age and wealth index

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: A. Lubis, R. Widayanti, Z. Hikmah, A. Endaryanto, A. Harsono, A. Harianto, R. Etika, D. K. Handayani, M. Sampurna

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Neonatal lupus erythematous (NLE) is a rare disease marked by clinical characteristic and specific maternal autoantibody. Many cutaneous, cardiac, liver, and hematological manifestations could happen with affect of one organ or multiple. In this case, both babies were premature, low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA) and born through caesarean section from a systemic lupus erythematous (SLE) mother. In the first case, we found a baby girl with dyspnea and grunting. Chest X ray showed respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) great I and echocardiography showed small atrial septal defect (ASD) and ventricular septal defect (VSD). She also developed anemia, thrombocytopenia, elevated C-reactive protein, hypoalbuminemia, increasing coagulation factors, hyperbilirubinemia, and positive blood culture of Klebsiella pneumonia. Anti-Ro/SSA and Anti-nRNP/sm were positive. Intravenous fluid, antibiotic, transfusion of blood, thrombocyte concentrate, and fresh frozen plasma were given. The second baby, male presented with necrotic tissue on the left ear and skin rashes, erythematous macula, athropic scarring, hyperpigmentation on all of his body with various size and facial haemorrhage. He also suffered from thrombocytopenia, mild elevated transaminase enzyme, hyperbilirubinemia, anti-Ro/SSA was positive. Intravenous fluid, methyprednisolone, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), blood, and thrombocyte concentrate transfution were given. Two cases of neonatal lupus erythematous had been presented. Diagnosis based on clinical presentation and maternal auto antibody on neonate. Organ involvement in NLE can occur as single or multiple manifestations.

Keywords: neonatus lupus erythematous, maternal autoantibody, clinical characteristic, multiple organ manifestation

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Aidin Foroutan, David S. Wishart, Leluo L. Guan, Carolyn Fitzsimmons

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Maximizing efficiency and growth potential of beef cattle requires not only genetic selection (i.e. residual feed intake (RFI)) but also adequate nutrition throughout all stages of growth and development. Nutrient restriction during gestation has been shown to negatively affect post-natal growth and development as well as fertility of the offspring. This, when combined with RFI may affect progeny traits. This study aims to investigate the impact of selection for divergent genetic potential for RFI and maternal nutrition during early- to mid-gestation, on bull calf traits such as fertility and muscle development using multiple ‘omics’ approaches. Comparisons were made between High-diet vs. Low-diet and between High-RFI vs. Low-RFI animals. An epigenetics experiment on semen samples identified 891 biomarkers associated with growth and development. A gene expression study on Longissimus thoracis muscle, semimembranosus muscle, liver, and testis identified 4 genes associated with muscle development and immunity of which Myocyte enhancer factor 2A [MEF2A; induces myogenesis and control muscle differentiation] was the only differentially expressed gene identified in all four tissues. An initial metabolomics experiment on serum samples using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) identified 4 metabolite biomarkers related to energy and protein metabolism. Once all the biomarkers are identified, bioinformatics approaches will be used to create a database covering all the ‘omics’ data collected from this project. This database will be broadened by adding other information obtained from relevant literature reviews. Association analyses with these data sets will be performed to reveal key biological pathways affected by RFI and maternal nutrition. Through these association studies between the genome and metabolome, it is expected that candidate biomarker genes and metabolites for feed efficiency, fertility, and/or muscle development are identified. If these gene/metabolite biomarkers are validated in a larger animal population, they could potentially be used in breeding programs to select superior animals. It is also expected that this work will lead to the development of an online tool that could be used to predict future traits of interest in an animal given its measurable ‘omics’ traits.

Keywords: biomarker, maternal nutrition, omics, residual feed intake

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Engida Yisma, Berhanu Dessalegn, Ayalew Astatkie, Nebreed Fesseha

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Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends using the partograph to follow labour and delivery, with the objective to improve health care and reduce maternal and foetal morbidity and death. Methods: A retrospective document review was undertaken to assess the completion of the modified WHO partograph during labour in public health institutions of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A total of 420 of the modified WHO partographs used to monitor mothers in labour from five public health institutions that provide maternity care were reviewed. A structured checklist was used to gather the required data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Frequency distributions, cross-tabulations and a graph were used to describe the results of the study. Results: All facilities were using the modified WHO partograph. The correct completion of the partograph was very low. From 420 partographs reviewed across all the five health facilities, foetal heart rate was recorded into the recommended standard in 129(30.7%) of the partographs, while 138 (32.9%) of cervical dilatation and 87 (20.70%) of uterine contractions were recorded to the recommended standard. The study did not document descent of the presenting part in 353 (84%). Moulding in 364 (86.7%) of the partographs reviewed was not recorded. Documentation of state of the liquor was 113(26.9%), while the maternal blood pressure was recorded to standard only in 78(18.6%) of the partographs reviewed. Conclusions: This study showed a poor completion of the modified WHO partographs during labour in public health institutions of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The findings may reflect poor management of labour and indicate the need for pre-service and periodic on-job training of health workers on the proper completion of the partograph. Regular supportive supervision, provision of guidelines and mandatory health facility policy are also needed in support of a collaborative effort to reduce maternal and perinatal deaths.

Keywords: modified WHO partograph, completion, public health institutions, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

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Authors: Tarnai Tena, Strinić Dean

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Chronic non-communicable diseases are today the leading cause of mortality, morbidity and mortality disability at the world level and in Croatia. Among them are the most represented precisely cardiovascular diseases (CVD), so today we are talking about their global card epidemic. From 2018 to 2021, cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death for both women and men in the Dubrovnik- Neretva County. With regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has taken over, without forgetting how much these patients are additionally affected, we are still talking about the primary cause of sickness and death in the population of this county and region. In this record, we present collected data processed according to gender and disease classification. We also bring a kind of overview because, for years, we have been following how the population of one of the origins of the Mediterranean diet has been struggling with cardiovascular diseases.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, burden, COVID-19, epidemiology, ishemic heart disease, cardiovascular medicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 53