Search results for: incidence rates (IR)

Authors: Nurudeen O. Lasisi, Sirajo Abdulrahman, Abdulkareem A. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of the modeling of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. The comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate and novel quarantine-adjusted incident rate in the models are discussed. The dynamics of the models yield disease-free and endemic equilibrium states.The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact of an individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models and we found that the stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, Endemic state, Mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Jong Yeop Kim, Sung Young Park, Dae Hee Kim, Han Bum Joe, Ji Young Yoo, Jong Bum Choi, Sook Young Lee

Abstract:

Emergence agitation (EA) is commonly reported adverse events after sevoflurane anesthesia in pediatric patients. The efficacy of prophylactic remifentanil, one of mu opioid agonist, in preventing EA is controversial. This meta-analysis assessed the effectiveness of remifentanil to decrease the incidence of EA from sevoflurane anesthesia in children. We searched for randomized controlled trials comparing sevoflurane alone anesthesia with sevoflurane and remifentanil anesthesia to prevent EA in the Cochrane Library, Embase, Pubmed, and KoreaMed, and included 6 studies with 361 patients. The number of patients of reporting EA was summarized using risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI), with point estimates and 95CIs derived from a random effects Mantel-Haenszel method. Overall incidence of EA was about 41%. Compared with sevoflurane alone anesthesia, intravenous infusion of remifentanil with sevoflurane significantly reduced the incidence of EA (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.39-0.73, P < 0.0001), (heterogeneity, I2 = 0, P = 0.42). This meta-analysis suggested that continuous infusion of remifentanil could be effective in decreasing the EA of about 47% after sevoflurane anesthesia. However, considering limitations of the included studies, more randomized controlled studies are required to verify our results.

Keywords: emergence agitation, meta-analysis, remifentanil, pediatrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: A. Boateng, La Gil-Alana, M. Lesaoana; Hj. Siweya, A. Belete

Abstract:

This study examines long memory or long-range dependence in the CPI inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa using Whittle methods and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Standard I(0)/I(1) methods such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests were also employed. Our findings indicate that long memory exists in the CPI inflation rates of both countries. After processing fractional differencing and determining the short memory components, the models were specified as ARFIMA (4,0.35,2) and ARFIMA (3,0.49,3) respectively for Ghana and South Africa. Consequently, the CPI inflation rates of both countries are fractionally integrated and mean reverting. The implication of this result will assist in policy formulation and identification of inflationary pressures in an economy.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates, Whittle method, long memory, ARFIMA model

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Frazer Kirk, Rohen Skiba, Pankaj Saxena

Abstract:

The natural history of the QAV is poorly understood due to the exceeding rarity of the condition. Incidence rates vary between 0.00028-1%. Classically patients present with Aortic Regurgitation (AR) between 40-60 years of age experiencing palpitations, chest pain, or heart failure. (1, 2) Echocardiography is the mainstay of diagnosis for this condition; however, given the rarity of this condition, it can easily be overlooked, as demonstrated here. The case report that follows serves as a reminder of the condition to reduce the innate cognitive bias to overlook the diagnosis due to the availability heuristic. Intraoperative photography, echocardiographic and magnetic resonance imaging from this case for reference to demonstrate that while the diagnosis of Aortic regurgitation was recognized early, the valve morphology was underappreciated.

Keywords: quadricuspid aortic valve, cardiac surgery, echocardiography, congenital

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Benoit Jauniaux, Azzam Ismail

Abstract:

Objectives: The aims were to identify all incident adult cases of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) in the City of Leeds, UK, and to estimate the risk of cancer in IIMs as compared with the general population. Methods: Cases of IIMs were ascertained by review of all muscle biopsy reports from the Neuropathology Laboratory. A review of medical records was undertaken for each case to review the clinical diagnosis and collect epidemiological data such as age, ethnicity, sex, and comorbidities, including cancer. Leeds denominator population numbers were publicly obtainable. Results: Two hundred and six biopsy reports were identified, and after review, 50 incident cases were included in the study between June 2010 and January 2021. Out of the 50 cases, 27 were male, and 23 were female. The mean incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds throughout the study period was 7.42/1 000 000 person years. The proportion of IIMs cases with a confirmed malignancy was 22%. Compared to the general population, the relative risk of cancer was significantly greater in the IIMs population(31.56, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds was consistent with data from previous literature, however, disagreement exists between different methods of IIMs case inclusion due to varying clinical criteria and definitions. IIMs are associated with increased risk of cancer however, the pathogenesis of this relationship still requires investigating. This study supports the practice of malignancy screening and long-term surveillance in patients with IIMs.

Keywords: idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, myositis, polymyositis, dermatomyositis, malignancy, epidemiology, incidence rate, relative risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Fatima Abu Baker Hamad

Abstract:

Anaemia is a public health problem that affects population in both rich and poor countries. Although the primary cause is iron deficiency, it is seldom present in isolation. More frequently it coexists with a number of other causes, such as malaria, parasitic infection, nutritional deficiencies and hemoglobin apathies. That was the people in Sudan suffered from it .Anaemia has a high prevalence in patients with cancer. The aim of this study was to find the incidence of anaemia in new cases of Sudanese female breast patients attending the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Gezira University, Sudan. The study was performed on 250 female breast cancer patients, the age range was (20-70) years and the mean age was 45.99±0.82. The hemoglobin level was measured by SYSMEX-KX2lM.As result 144(58.8) of patients presented with anaemia, between moderate to severe. Forty four (17.6%) of the patients were found to be under weight, 31 of them were anaemic. While 105(42%) of the patients were overweight and obese, 52 of them were anaemic. The incidence of anaemia in newly diagnosed Sudanese female breast cancer patients presented at NCI is association presentation with advance disease stage. Also it is related to age, state of nutrition and social economic factors. Early cancer detection which leads to effective treatment and reduced complication of diseases included anaemia is recommended.

Keywords: anaemia, breast cancer, stages of disease, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Gajaanuja Megalathan, Banuka Athuraliya

Abstract:

Crime is one of our society's most intimidating and threatening challenges. With the majority of the population residing in cities, many experts and data provided by local authorities suggest a rapid increase in the number of crimes committed in these cities in recent years. There has been an increasing graph in the crime rates. People living in Sri Lanka have the right to know the exact crime rates and the crime rates in the future of the place they are living in. Due to the current economic crisis, crime rates have spiked. There have been so many thefts and murders recorded within the last 6-10 months. Although there are many sources to find out, there is no solid way of searching and finding out the safety of the place. Due to all these reasons, there is a need for the public to feel safe when they are introduced to new places. Through this research, the author aims to develop a mobile application that will be a solution to this problem. It is mainly targeted at tourists, and people who recently relocated will gain advantage of this application. Moreover, the Arima Model combined with ANN is to be used to predict crime rates. From the past researchers' works, it is evidently clear that they haven’t used the Arima model combined with Artificial Neural Networks to forecast crimes.

Keywords: arima model, ANN, crime prediction, data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi, Abdulkareem Afolabi Ibrahim

Abstract:

Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of modeling the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. We do a comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate, and novel quarantine adjusted incident rate in the models. The dynamics of the models yield disease free and endemic equilibrium states. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact for the individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models, and we found that stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, endemic state, mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Palak V. Patel, Jessica Pixley, Steven R. Feldman

Abstract:

Introduction: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the most common skin cancer worldwide and requires substantial resources to treat. When choosing between indicated therapies, providers consider their associated adverse effects, efficacy, cosmesis, and function preservation. The patient’s tumor burden, infiltrative risk, and risk of tumor recurrence are also considered. Treatment cost is often left out of these discussions. This can lead to financial toxicity, which describes the harm and quality of life reductions inflicted by high care costs. Methods: We studied the guidelines set forth by the American Academy of Dermatology for the treatment of BCC. A PubMed literature search was conducted to identify the costs of each recommended therapy. We discuss costs alongside treatment efficacy and side-effect profile. Results: Surgical treatment for BCC can be cost-effective if the appropriate treatment is selected for the presenting tumor. Curettage and electrodesiccation can be used in low-grade, low-recurrence tumors in aesthetically unimportant areas. The benefits of cost-conscious care are not likely to be outweighed by the risks of poor cosmesis or tumor return ($471 BCC of the cheek). When tumor burden is limited, MMS offers better cure rates and lower recurrence rates than surgical excision, and with comparable costs (MMS $1263; SE $949). Surgical excision with permanent sections may be indicated when tumor burden is more extensive or if molecular testing is necessary. The utility of surgical excision with frozen sections, which costs substantially more than MMS without comparable outcomes, is less clear (SE with frozen sections $2334-$3085). Less data exists on non-surgical treatments for BCC. These techniques cost less, but recurrence-risk is high. Side-effects of nonsurgical treatment are limited to local skin reactions, and cosmesis is good. Cryotherapy, 5-FU, and MAL-PDT are all more affordable than surgery, but high recurrence rates increase risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burden (recurrence rates 21-39%; cost $100-270). Radiation therapy offers better clearance rates than other nonsurgical treatments but is associated with similar recurrence rates and a significantly larger financial burden ($2591-$3460 BCC of the cheek). Treatments for advanced or metastatic BCC are extremely costly, but few patients require their use, and the societal cost burden remains low. Vismodegib and sonidegib have good response rates but substantial side effects, and therapy should be combined with multidisciplinary care and palliative measures. Expert-review has found sonidegib to be the less expensive and more efficacious option (vismodegib $128,358; sonidegib $122,579). Platinum therapy, while not FDA-approved, is also effective but expensive (~91,435). Immunotherapy offers a new line of treatment in patients intolerant of hedgehog inhibitors ($683,061). Conclusion: Dermatologists working within resource-compressed practices and with resource-limited patients must prudently manage the healthcare dollar. Surgical therapies for BCC offer the lowest risk of recurrence at the most reasonable cost. Non-surgical therapies are more affordable, but high recurrence rates increase the risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burdens. Treatments for advanced BCC are incredibly costly, but the low incidence means the overall cost to the system is low.

Keywords: nonmelanoma skin cancer, basal cell skin cancer, squamous cell skin cancer, cost of care

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Hussain M. Al-foudari, Weizhong Chen, James M. Bishop

Abstract:

Correlations between oceanographic variables and monthly catch rates of total shrimp and those of each of the major species (Penaeus semisulcatus, Metapenaeus affinis and Parapenaeopsis stylifera) showed significant differences for particular conditions. Catches of P. semisulcatus were basically positively correlated with temperature, i.e., the higher the temperature, the higher the catch rate, while those of M. affinis and P. stylifera were negatively correlated with temperature, i.e., high catch rates occurred in the low temperature waters. Thus, during the months January and April, P. semisulcatus preferred waters with high temperature, usually the offshore and southern areas, while M. affinis and P. stylifera preferred waters with low temperature, usually inshore and northern areas. The relationships between the catch rate of P. semisulcatus and salinity were not so clear. Results indicated that although salinity was one of the factors affecting the distribution of P. semisulcatus, it was not the principal factor, and impacts from other variables, such as temperature, might overshadow the correlation between the catch rates of P. semisulcatus and salinity. The relationship between shrimp catch rates and dissolved oxygen (DO) also showed mixed results. The catch rates of M. affinis increased with a decrease of surface DO in November 2013, but decreased with lower bottom DO in December. These results indicated that DO might be a factor affecting distributions of the shrimp; however; the true correlation between catch rate and DO might be easily overshadowed by other environmental variables. Catch rates of P. semisulcatus did not show any relationship with depth. P. semisulcatus is a migratory species and widely distributed in Kuwait's waters.During the shrimp season from July through December, P. semisulcatus occurs in almost all areas in Kuwait's waters irrespective of water depth. The catch rates of M. affinis and P. stylifera, however, showed clear relationships with depth. Both species had significantly higher catch rates in shallower waters, indicative of their restricted distribution.

Keywords: Kuwait, Penaeus semisulcatus, Metapenaeus affinis, Parapenaeopsis stylifera, Arabian gulf

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Abdessamad Dali-Ali, Houaria Beldjillali, Fouzia Agag, Asmaa Oukebdane, Ramzi Tidjani, Arslane Bettayeb, Khadidja Meddeber, Radia Dali-Yahia, Nori Midoun

Abstract:

Healthcare-associated infections are a real public health problem, especially in intensive care units. The aim of our study was to describe the epidemiological profile and to estimate the incidence of these infections at the intensive care unit of our teaching hospital. A prospective study was conducted, from June 2012 to December 2013. During this period, 305 patients having a duration of hospitalization equal or more than 48 hours were included in the study. In terms of the incidence of healthcare associated infections, nosocomial pneumonia occupied the first position with a cumulative incidence rate of 20.0%, followed by bacteremia (5.6%), central venous catheter infections (4%), and urinary tract infections (3%). In the case of isolated microorganisms, Gram-negative bacilli not enterobacteriaceae occupied the first place with 48.5%, followed by enterobacteria (32.1%). Acinetobacter baumannii was the most common germ (27.6%). Our study showed that the rate of health-care-associated infections was relatively high in the intensive care unit. A control program to reduce all infections is a priority for the Infection Control Associated Committee.

Keywords: epidemiological profile, healthcare associated infections, intensive care units, teaching hospital of Oran, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Dongseok Cho, Mitchell Driedger, Sera Han, Noman Khan, Mohammed Elmorsy, Mohamad El-Hajj

Abstract:

Since the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine in late 2020, vaccination rates have varied around the globe. Access to a vaccine supply, mandated vaccination policy, and vaccine hesitancy contribute to these rates. This study used COVID-19 vaccination data from Our World in Data and the Multilateral Leaders Task Force on COVID-19 to create two COVID-19 vaccination indices. The first index is the Vaccine Utilization Index (VUI), which measures how effectively each country has utilized its vaccine supply to doubly vaccinate its population. The second index is the Vaccination Acceleration Index (VAI), which evaluates how efficiently each country vaccinated its population within its first 150 days. Pearson correlations were created between these indices and country indicators obtained from the World Bank. The results of these correlations identify countries with stronger health indicators, such as lower mortality rates, lower age dependency ratios, and higher rates of immunization to other diseases, displaying higher VUI and VAI scores than countries with lesser values. VAI scores are also positively correlated to Governance and Economic indicators, such as regulatory quality, control of corruption, and GDP per capita. As represented by the VUI, proper utilization of the COVID-19 vaccine supply by country is observed in countries that display excellence in health practices. A country’s motivation to accelerate its vaccination rates within the first 150 days of vaccinating, as represented by the VAI, was largely a product of the governing body’s effectiveness and economic status, as well as overall excellence in health practises.

Keywords: data mining, Pearson correlation, COVID-19, vaccination rates and hesitancy

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

Abstract:

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: F. Sarkinfada, Dabo N. Tukur, Abbas A. Muaz, Adamu A. Yahuza

Abstract:

Appropriate Quality Assurance (QA) of parasite-based diagnosis of malaria to justify Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT) is essential for Malaria Programmes. In Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC), resource constrain appears to be a major challenge in implementing the conventional QA system. We designed and implemented a modified LQAS model for QA of malaria parasite (MP) microscopy and RDT in a State Specialist Hospital (SSH) and a University Health Clinic (UHC) in Kano, Nigeria. The capacities of both facilities for MP microscopy and RDT were assessed before implementing a modified LQAS over a period of 3 months. Quality indicators comprising the qualities of blood film and staining, MP positivity rates, concordance rates, error rates (in terms of false positives and false negatives), sensitivity and specificity were monitored and evaluated. Seventy one percent (71%) of the basic requirements for malaria microscopy was available in both facilities, with the absence of certifies microscopists, SOPs and Quality Assurance mechanisms. A daily average of 16 to 32 blood samples were tested with a blood film staining quality of >70% recorded in both facilities. Using microscopy, the MP positivity rates were 50.46% and 19.44% in SSH and UHS respectively, while the MP positivity rates were 45.83% and 22.78% in SSH and UHS when RDT was used. Higher concordance rates of 88.90% and 93.98% were recorded in SSH and UHC respectively using microscopy, while lower rates of 74.07% and 80.58% in SSH and UHC were recorded when RDT was used. In both facilities, error rates were higher when RDT was used than with microscopy. Sensitivity and specificity were higher when microscopy was used (95% and 84% in SSH; 94% in UHC) than when RDT was used (72% and 76% in SSH; 78% and 81% in UHC). It could be feasible to implement an integrated QA model for MP microscopy and RDT using modified LQAS in Malaria Control Programmes in Low and Middle Income Countries that might have resource constrain for parasite-base diagnosis of malaria to justify ACT treatment.

Keywords: malaria, microscopy, quality assurance, RDT

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Maria Lucia G. Lourenco, Keylla H. N. P. Pereira, Vivane Y. Hibaru, Fabiana F. Souza, Joao C. P. Ferreira, Simone B. Chiacchio, Luiz H. A. Machado

Abstract:

Neonatal sepsis is a systemic response to the acute generalized infection caused by one or more bacterial agents, representing the main infectious cause of neonatal mortality in dogs during the first three weeks of life. This study aims to describe the incidence of sepsis in neonate dogs, as well as the main clinical signs and mortality rates. The study included 735 neonates admitted to the Sao Paulo State University (UNESP) Veterinary Hospital, Botucatu, Sao Paulo, Brazil, between January 2018 and November 2019. Seven hundred thirty-five neonates, 14% (98/703) presented neonatal sepsis. The main sources of infection for the neonates were intrauterine (72.5%, 71/98), lactogenic (13.2%, 13/98), umbilical (5.1%, 5/98) and unidentified sources (9.2%, 9/98). The main non-specific clinical signs observed in the newborns were weakness, depression, impaired or absent reflexes, hypothermia, hypoglycemia, dehydration, reduced muscle tonus and diarrhea. The newborns also manifested clinical signs of severe infection, such as hyperemia in the abdominal and anal regions, omphalitis, hematuria, abdomen and extremities with purplish-blue coloration necrosing injuries in the pads, bradycardia, dyspnea, epistaxis, hypotension and evolution to septic shock. Infections acquired during intrauterine life led to the onset of the clinical signs at the time of birth, with fast evolution during the first hours of life. On the other hand, infections acquired via milk or umbilical cord presented clinical signs later. The total mortality rate was 5.4% (38/703) and the mortality rate among the neonates with sepsis was 38.7% (38/98). The early mortality rate (0 to 2 days) accounted for 86.9% (33/38) and the late mortality rate (3 to 30 days) for 13.1% (5/38) of the deaths among the newborns with sepsis. The main bacterial agents observed were Staphylococcus spp., Streptococcus spp., Proteus spp. Mannheimia spp. and Escherichia coli. Neonatal sepsis evolves quickly and may lead to high mortality in a litter. The prognosis is usually favorable if the diagnosis is reached early and the antibiotic therapy instituted as soon as possible, even before the results of blood cultures and antibiograms. The therapeutic recommendations should meet the special physiological conditions of a neonate in terms of metabolism and excretion of medication. Therefore, it is of utmost importance that the veterinarian is knowledgeable regarding neonatology to provide effective intervention and improve the survival rates of these patients.

Keywords: Neonatal infection , bacteria, puppies, newborn

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

Abstract:

Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Abhishek Kumar, Nilam

Abstract:

As we know that, time delay exists almost in every biological phenomenon. Therefore, in the present study, we propose a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic model along with time delay, modulated incidence rate of infection, and Holling Type II nonlinear treatment rate. The present model aims to provide a strategy to control the spread of epidemics. In the mathematical study of the model, it has been shown that the model has two equilibriums which are named as disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE). Further, stability analysis of the model is discussed. To prove the stability of the model at DFE, we derived basic reproduction number, denoted by (R₀). With the help of basic reproduction number (R₀), we showed that the model is locally asymptotically stable at DFE when the basic reproduction number (R₀) less than unity and unstable when the basic reproduction number (R₀) is greater than unity. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at endemic equilibrium has also been discussed. Finally, numerical simulations have been done using MATLAB 2012b to exemplify the theoretical results.

Keywords: time delayed SIR epidemic model, modulated incidence rate, Holling type II nonlinear treatment rate, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: kamran Bhatti

Abstract:

Objective: To evaluate spectrum and resistance rates to antibacterial agents in causative pathogens of bacterial prostatitis in patients from Southern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Materials: 1027 isolates from cultures of urine or expressed prostatic secretion, post-massage urine or seminal fluid, or urethral samples were considered. Results: Escherichia coli (32%) and Enterococcus spp. (21%) were the most common isolates. Other Gram-negative, Gram-positive, and atypical pathogens accounted for 22%, 20%, and 5%, respectively. Resistance was <15% for piperacillin/tazobactam and carbapenems (both Gram-negative and -positive pathogens); <5% for glycopeptides against Gram-positive; 7%, 14%, and 20% for aminoglycosides, fosfomycin, and macrolides against Gram-negative pathogens, respectively; 10% for amoxicillin/clavulanate against Gram-positive pathogens; <20% for cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones against to Gram-negative pathogens (higher against Gram-positive pathogens); none for macrolides against atypical pathogens, but 20% and 27% for fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines. In West Africa, the resistance rates were generally higher, although the highest rates for ampicillin, cephalosporins, and fluoroquinolones were observed in the Gulf area. Lower rates were observed in Southeastern Europe. Conclusions: Resistance to antibiotics is a health problem requiring local health authorities to combat this phenomenon. Knowledge of the spectrum of pathogens and antibiotic resistance rates is crucial to assess local guidelines for the treatment of prostatitis.

Keywords: enterobacteriacae; escherichia coli, gram-positive pathogens, antibiotic, bacterial prostatitis, resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Marcel Duh, Jadranka Stricevic, David Halozan, Dusan Celan

Abstract:

Back pain is not only the result of structural or biomechanical abnormalities of the spine but is also associated with cognitive and behavioral aspects of pain and thus represents biopsychosocial problem. Stressors are not only interpersonal conflicts, negative life events, and dangerous situations but also noise. Effects of noise on human beings are psychological (excitement, stress), sensory, and physiological. The harmful effects of noise can be seen in the 40-65 dB range and are manifested as fatigue, irritability, poor sleep and psychological discomfort of the worker. Within 65-90 dB range, body metabolism increases, oxygen consumption is higher, tachycardia and hypertension appear, and the tone of skeletal muscles increases. The purpose of the study was to determine whether the stress caused by noise at the work place increases the incidence of back pain. Measurements of noise levels were carried out in three different wards of social care institution. The measurement on each ward was repeated 3 times (total of 9 measurements) for 8 hours during the morning shift. The device was set up in the room where clients spent most of the day. The staff on the ward replied to the questionnaire consisting of closed type questions about basic demographic information and information about back pain. We find that noise levels as measured in our study had no statistically significant effect on the incidence of back pain (p = 0.90). We also find that health care workers who perceive their work as stressful, have more back pain than those who perceive their job as unstressful, but correlation is statistically insignificant (p = 0.682). With our study, we have proven findings of other authors, that noise level below 65 dB does not have a significant influence on the incidence of back pain.

Keywords: health care workers, musculoskeletal disorder, noise, sick leave

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Mahdi Karazmodeh, Pooyan Jafari

Abstract:

One of the most interesting topics in finance is the relation between stock prices and exchange rates. During the past decades different stock markets in different countries have been the subject of study for researches. The volatilities of exchange rates and its effect on stock prices during the past 10 years have continued to be an attractive research topic. The subject of this study is one of the most important indices, FTSE 100. 20 firms with the highest market capitalization in 5 different industries are chosen. Firms are included in oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, banking and food related industries. 5 different criteria have been introduced to evaluate the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates. Return of market portfolio, returns on broad index of Sterling are also introduced. The results state that not all firms are sensitive to changes in exchange rates. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test has been run to observe the route of changes between stock prices and foreign exchange rates. The results are consistent, to some level, with the previous studies. However, since the number of firms is not large, it is suggested that a larger number of firms being used to achieve the best results. However results showed that not all firms are affected by foreign exchange rates changes. After testing Granger Causality, this study found out that in some industries (oil and gas, pharmaceuticals), changes in foreign exchange rate will not cause any changes in stock prices (or vice versa), however, in banking sector the situation was different. This industry showed more reaction to these changes. The results are similar to the ones with Richards and Noel, where a variety of firms in different industries were evaluated.

Keywords: stock prices, foreign exchange rate, exchange rate exposure, Granger Causality

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Asho Ali

Abstract:

Tuberculosis is a disease of grave concern which infects one-third of the global population. The high incidence of tuberculosis is further compounded by the increasing emergence of drug resistant strains including multi drug resistant (MDR). Global incidence MDR-TB is ~4%. Molecular epidemiological studies, based on the assumption that patients infected with clustered strains are epidemiologically linked, have helped understand the transmission dynamics of disease. It has also helped to investigate the basis of variation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) strains, differences in transmission, and severity of disease or drug resistance mechanisms from across the globe. This has helped in developing strategies for the treatment and prevention of the disease including MDR.

Keywords: Mycobcaterium tuberculosis, molecular epidemiology, drug resistance, disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

Abstract:

In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

Abstract:

Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Authors: A. Lakhal, M. Bahalou, A. Khattabi

Abstract:

Introduction: Tuberculosis is one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. In Morocco, a total of 30,636 cases of Tuberculosis, all forms combined, were reported in 2015, representing an incidence of 89 cases per 100,000 population. The number of deaths from tuberculosis (TB) was 656 cases. In the prefecture of Meknes, its incidence remains high compared to the national level. The objective of this work is to describe the epidemiological profile of tuberculosis in the prefecture of Meknes. Methods: It is a descriptive analysis of TB cases reported between 2016 and 2020 at the regional diagnostic center of tuberculosis and respiratory diseases. We performed analysis by using Microsoft Excel and EpiInfo 7. Results: Epidemiological data from 2016 to 2020 report a total of 4100 new cases of all forms of tuberculosis, with an average of 820 new cases per year. The median age is 32 years. There is a clear male predominance, on average 58% of cases are male and 42% female. The incidence rate of bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis per 100,000 inhabitants has increased from 35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016 to 39.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2020. The confirmation rate for pulmonary tuberculosis decreased from 84% in 2016 to 75% in 2020. Pulmonary involvement predominates by an average of 46%, followed by lymph node involvement 29%and pleural involvement by an average of 10%. Digestive, osteoarticular, genitourinary, and meningeal involvement occurs in 8% of cases. Primary tuberculosis infection occurs in an average of 0.5% of cases. The proportion of HIV-TB co-infections was 2.8 in 2020. Conclusion: The incidence of tuberculosis in Meknes remains high compared to the national level. Thus, it is imperative to reinforce the earlier detection; improve the contact tracing, detection methods of cases for their confirmation and treatment, and to reduce the proportion of the lost to follow up as well.

Keywords: tuberculosis, epidemiological profile, meknes, morocco

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Eftychia Pappa, Heleni Vastardis, Christos Rahiotis, Andriani Vazaiou

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of dry-mouth symptoms (xerostomia) and compare it with alterations in salivary characteristics of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes (DM1), as measured with the use of chair-side saliva tests. This study also investigated the possible association between salivary dysfunction and incidence of caries, in relation to the level of metabolic control. A cross-sectional study was performed on young patients (6-18 years old) allocated among 3 groups: 40 patients poorly-controlled (DM1-A, HbA1c>8%), 40 well-controlled (DM1-B, HbA1c≤8%) and 40 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of University of Athens and the parents signed written informed consent. All subjects were examined for dental caries, oral hygiene and salivary factors. Assessments of salivary function included self-reported xerostomia, quantification of resting and stimulated whole saliva flow rates, pH values, buffering capacity and saliva’s viscosity. Salivary characteristics were evaluated with the use of GC Saliva Check Buffer (3Μ ESPE). Data were analysed by chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Subjects with diabetes reported xerostomia more frequently than healthy controls (p<0.05). Unstimulated salivary flow rate and pH values remained significantly lower in DM1-A compared to DM1-B and controls. Low values of resting salivary flow rate were associated with a higher prevalence of dental caries in children and adolescents with poorly-controlled DM1 (p<0.05). The results suggested that diabetes-induced alterations in salivary characteristics are indicative of higher caries susceptibility of diabetics and chair-side saliva tests are a useful tool for the evaluation of caries risk assessment.

Keywords: caries risk assessment, saliva diagnostic tests, type 1 diabetes, xerostomia

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Nasib Zaman, Maneesha Kour, Muhammad Rizwan, Fazal Akbar

Abstract:

Abstract: Chikungunya fever is a re-emerging rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease cause by Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti mosquito vectors. Currently, it is affecting millions of people globally. Objective: This study's main objective was to find the incidence of chikungunya fever in the Swat region and the factors associated with the spread of this infection. Method: This study was carried out in different areas of Swat. Blood samples and data were collected from selected patients, and a questionnaire was filled for each patient. 3-5ml of the specimen was taken from the patient's vein and serum, or plasma was separated by centrifugation. Chikungunya tests were performed for IgG and IgM antibodies. The data was analyzed by SPSS and Graph Paid Prism 5. Results: A total of 169 patients were included in this study, out of which 103 (60.9%) having age less than 30 years were positive for chikungunya infection and 66 (39.1%) having more than 30 years were negative for this infection. Only 1 (0.6%) were positive for both IgG and IgM antibody. About 15 (8.9%) patients have diagnosed with positive IgG antibodies, and 25 (26.6%) patients were positive for IgM positive antibodies. The infection rate was significantly higher in males compared to females 71 (59.6%) vs. 14 (38%) P value=0.088, OR=1.7. Conclusion: This study concludes clinical knowledge and awareness that are necessary for a diagnosis of chikungunya infection properly. Therefore it is important to educate people for the eradication of this infection. Recommendation: This study also recommends investigating the other risk factors associated with this infection.

Keywords: Chikungunya, risk factor, Incidence, antibodies, mosquito

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Gesraha, Amany Ramadan Ebeid

Abstract:

Aphids are noxious and serious persistent pests in the open fields worldwide. Many authors studied the possibility of aphid control by applying Ladybirds and Lacewings at different releasing rates under open-field conditions. Results clarify that releasing 3rd instar larvae of Coccinella undecimpunctata at the rate of 1 larva:50 aphid was more effective than 1:100 or 1:200 rates for controlling Aphis gossypii population in Okra field; reflecting more than 90% reduction in the aphid population within 15 days. When Chrysoperla carnea 2nd larval instar were releasing at 1:5, 1:10, and 1:20 (predator: aphid), it was noticed that the former rate was the most effective one, inducing 98.93% reduction in aphid population; while the two other rates reflecting less reduction. Additionally, in the case of double releases, the reduction percentage at the 1:5 rate was 99.63%, emphasize that this rate was the most effective one; the other rates induced 97.05 and 95.64% reduction. Generally, a double release was more effective in all tested rates than the single one because of the cumulative existence of the predators in large numbers at the same period of the experiment. It could be concluded that utilizing insect predators (Coccinella undecimpunctata or Chrysoperla carnea) at an early larval stag were faire enough to reduce the aphids’ populations under open fields conditions.

Keywords: releasing predators, lacewings, ladybird, open fields

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Sumi Manjipparambil Surendran, Subrata Majumdar

Abstract:

Aim: The aim of the study is to find out if low PAPP-A (Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein A) levels in the first trimester are associated with adverse obstetric outcome. Methods: A retrospective study was carried out on 114 singleton pregnancies having undergone combined test screening. Results: There is statistically significant increased incidence of low birth weight infants in the low PAPP-A group. However, significant association was not found in the incidence of pre-eclampsia, miscarriage, and placental abruption. Conclusion: Low PAPP-A in the first trimester is associated with fetal growth restriction. Recommendation: Women with low PAPP-A levels in first trimester pregnancy screening require consultant-led care and serial growth scans.

Keywords: pregnancy, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, PAPP-A, fetal growth restriction, trimester

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

Abstract:

The study identifies the impact of inflation and foreign exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Inflation and exchange rates are used as independent variables and foreign direct investment is taken as dependent variable. Discreet time series data has been used from the period of 1999 to 2009. The results of regression analysis reveal that high inflation has negative impact on foreign direct investment and higher exchange rates has positive impact on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. The inflation and foreign exchange rates both are insignificant in the analysis.

Keywords: inflation rate, foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment, foreign assets

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Minna Salim, James Brady

Abstract:

Postoperative nausea and pain (PONV) are adverse effects following surgical procedures. It is especially pronounced in patients undergoing orthognathic surgery, as their mouth is closed postoperatively using wires or rubber bands. Postoperative mouth closure increases the discomfort and risk of complications associated with nausea and vomiting. Many surgeons and institutions apply gastric decompression in hopes of aspirating stomach contents and, therefore, decreasing PONV incidence. This review observed that PONV incidence was not affected by gastric decompression overall. However, the effect of gastric decompression on PONV in orthognathic surgery was variable. This paper aims to summarize the findings of gastric decompression on PONV and to determine the need for it in orthognathic surgery.

Keywords: gastric decompression, nasogastric tube, orthognathic surgery, postoperative nausea, vomiting

Procedia PDF Downloads 56