Search results for: economic loss

Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss

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Authors: Isabel Mousinho de Figueiredo

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Pure economic loss can be brought into the 21st century and become a useful tool to keep the tort of negligence within reasonable limits, provided the concept is minutely reexamined. The term came about when wealth was physical, and Law wanted to be a modern science. As a tool to draw the line, it leads to satisfactory decisions in most cases, but needlessly creates distressing conundrums in others, and these are the ones parties bother to litigate about. Economic loss is deemed to be pure based on a blind negative criterion of physical harm, that inadvertently smelts vastly disparate problems into an indiscernible mass, with arbitrary outcomes. These shortcomings are usually dismissed as minor byproducts, for the lack of a better formula. Law could instead stick to the sound paradigms of the intended rule, and be more specific in identifying the losses deserving of compensation. This would provide a better service to Bench and Bar, and effectively assist everyone navigating the many challenges of Accident Law.

Keywords: accident law, comparative tort law, negligence, pure economic loss

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Authors: Kasman, Darmawansyah, Alimin Maidin, Amran Razak

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Background: In decentralization, advocacy is needed to increase the health budget in Parepare District. One of the advocacy methods recommended by the World Bank is the economic loss approach. Methods: This research is observational in the field of health economics that contributes directly to the magnitude of the economic loss of the community and the government and provides advocacy to the executive and legislative to see the harm it causes. Results: The research results show the amount of direct cost, which consists of household expenditure for transport Rp.295,865,500. Indirect Cost of YLD of Rp.14.688.000, and YLL of Rp.28.986.336.00, so the amount of DALY is Rp.43.674.336.000. The total economic loss of Rp.43.970.201.500. These huge economic losses can be prevented by increasing the allocation of health budgets for promotive and preventive efforts and expanding the coverage of health insurance for the community. Conclusion: There is a need to advocate the executive and legislative about the importance of guarantee on public health financing by conducting studies in terms of economic losses so that all strategic alliances believe that health is an investment.

Keywords: advocacy, economic lost, health insurance, economic losses

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Authors: Jihene Jebeniani

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We proposed an approach combining both the techniques of experimental economy and the flexibility of discrete choice models in order to test the loss aversion. Our main objective was to test the loss aversion of the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). We developed an experimental laboratory in the context of the financial investments that aimed to analyze the attitude towards the risk of the investors. The study uses the lotteries and is basing on econometric modeling. The estimated model was the ordered probit.

Keywords: risk aversion, behavioral finance, experimental economic, lotteries, cumulative prospect theory

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

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Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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Authors: Sumit Banerjee, Chandan Kumar Chanda

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The paper presents allocation of active power losses and energy losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment for loads of composite types. A detailed comparison among four algorithms, namely quadratic loss allocation, proportional loss allocation, pro rata loss allocation and exact loss allocation methods are presented. Quadratic and proportional loss allocations are based on identifying the active and reactive components of current in each branch and the losses are allocated to each consumer, pro rata loss allocation method is based on the load demand of each consumer and exact loss allocation method is based on the actual contribution of active power loss by each consumer. The effectiveness of the proposed comparison among four algorithms for composite load is demonstrated through an example.

Keywords: composite type, deregulation, loss allocation, radial distribution networks

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Authors: Md. Rashidul Hasan, Atikur Rahman Baizid

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The Bayesian estimation approach is a non-classical estimation technique in statistical inference and is very useful in real world situation. The aim of this paper is to study the Bayes estimators of the parameter of exponential distribution under different loss functions and then compared among them as well as with the classical estimator named maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In our real life, we always try to minimize the loss and we also want to gather some prior information (distribution) about the problem to solve it accurately. Here the gamma prior is used as the prior distribution of exponential distribution for finding the Bayes estimator. In our study, we also used different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as squared error loss function, quadratic loss function, modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function and non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function. Finally, mean square error (MSE) of the estimators are obtained and then presented graphically.

Keywords: Bayes estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function, Squared Error (SE) loss function, non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function

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Authors: Eva Kotlánová

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After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: economic crises in Europe, economic policy, uncertainty, panel analysis regression

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Authors: Ahmad Hamidi Mohamed, Jamaluddin Othman, Mashitah Suid, Mohd Zaim Mohd Shukri

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Floods are considered an annual natural disaster in Kelantan. However, the record-setting flood of 2014 was a 'tsunami-like disaster'. A study has been conducted with the objectives to assess the economic impact of the flood to the resident of Dabong area in Kelantan Darul Naim, Malaysia. This area was selected due to the severity during the flood. The impacts of flood on local people were done by conducting structured interviews with the use of questionnaires. The questionnaire was intended to acquire information on losses faced by Dabong residence. Questionnaires covered various areas of inconveniences suffered with respect to health effects, including illnesses suffered, their intensities, duration and their associated costs. Loss of productivity and quality of life was also assessed. Inquiries were made to Government agencies to obtain relevant statistical data regarding the loss due to the flood tragedy. The data collected by giving formal request to the governmental agencies and formal meetings were done. From the study a staggering amount of losses were calculated. This figure comes from losses of property, Farmers/Agriculture, Traders/Business, Health, Insurance and Governmental losses. Flood brings hardship to the people of Dabong and these losses of home will cause inconveniences to the society. The huge amount of economic loss extracted from this study shows that federal and state government of Kelantan need to find out the cause of the major flood in 2014. Fast and effective measures have to be planned and implemented in flood prone area to prevent same tragedy happens in the future.

Keywords: economic impact, flood tragedy, Malaysia, property losses

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Authors: Francis Chinweuba Eboh, Tobias Richards

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In this study, a waste-to-energy combined heat and power plant under construction was modelled and simulated with the Aspen Plus software. The base case process plant was evaluated and compared when integrated with flue gas condensation (FGC) in order to find out the impact of the exergy efficiency and economic feasibility as well as the effect of overall system exergy losses and revenue generated in the investigated plant. The economic evaluations were carried out using the vendor cost data from Aspen process economic analyser. The results indicate that 4 % increase in the exergy efficiency and 29 % reduction in the exergy loss in the flue gas were obtained when the flue gas condensation was incorporated. Furthermore, with the integrated FGC, the net present values (NPV) and income generated in the base process plant were increased by 29 % and 10 % respectively after 20 years of operation.

Keywords: economic feasibility, exergy efficiency, exergy losses, flue gas condensation, waste-to-energy

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem Ullah Khan Sumbal, Eric Tsui, Ricky Cheong, Eric See To

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Organizations are posed to a threat of valuable knowledge loss when employees leave either due to retirement, resignation, job change or because of disabilities e.g. death, etc. Due to changing economic conditions, globalization, and aging workforce, organizations are facing challenges regarding retention of valuable knowledge. On the one hand, large number of employees are going to retire in the organizations whereas on the other hand, younger generation does not want to work in a company for a long time and there is an increasing trend of frequent job change among the new generation. Because of these factors, organizations need to make sure that they capture the knowledge of employee before (s)he walks out of the door. The first step in this process is to know what type of knowledge employee possesses and whether this knowledge is important for the organization. Researchers reveal in the literature that despite the serious consequences of knowledge loss in terms of organizational productivity and competitive advantage, there has not been much work done in the area of knowledge loss assessment of departing employees. An important step in the knowledge retention process is to determine the critical ‘at risk’ knowledge. Thus, knowledge loss risk assessment is a process by which organizations can gauge the importance of knowledge of the departing employee. The purpose of this study is to explore this topic of knowledge loss risk assessment by conducting a qualitative study in oil and gas sector. By engaging in dialogues with managers and executives of the organizations through in-depth interviews and adopting a grounded methodology approach, the research will explore; i) Are there any measures adopted by organizations to assess the risk of knowledge loss from departing employees? ii) Which factors are crucial for knowledge loss assessment in the organizations? iii) How can we prioritize the employees for knowledge retention according to their criticality? Grounded theory approach is used when there is not much knowledge available in the area under research and thus new knowledge is generated about the topic through an in-depth exploration of the topic by using methods such as interviews and using a systematic approach to analyze the data. The outcome of the study will generate a model for the risk of knowledge loss through factors such as the likelihood of knowledge loss, the consequence/impact of knowledge loss and quality of the knowledge loss of departing employees. Initial results show that knowledge loss assessment is quite crucial for the organizations and it helps in determining what types of knowledge employees possess e.g. organizations knowledge, subject matter expertise or relationships knowledge. Based on that, it can be assessed which employee is more important for the organizations and how to prioritize the knowledge retention process for departing employees.

Keywords: knowledge loss, risk assessment, departing employees, Hong Kong organizations

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Authors: Bishnu Prasad Devkota

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Peoples` perception is reflected in their attitudes and presumably their behavior towards wildlife conservation. The success of wildlife conservation initiatives in the mountains of Nepal is heavily dependent on local people. Therefore, Nepal has emphasized the involvement of local people in wildlife conservation, especially in the mountainous region. Local peoples` perception towards snow leopard conservation in six mountainous protected area of Nepal was carried out conducting 300 household surveys and 90 face to face key informant interviews. The average livestock holding was 27.74 animals per household with depredation rate of 10.6 % per household per annum. Livestock was the source of 32.74% of the total mean annual income of each household. In average, the economic loss per household per annum due to livestock depredation was US $ 490. There was significant difference in people´s perception towards snow leopard conservation in protected areas of mountainous region of Nepal. These differences were due to economic, educational and cultural factors. 54.4% local people showed preference for snow leopard conservation. The perception of local people toward snow leopard was significantly difference by the economic status of local people. Involvement of local people in conservation activities had positive impact towards wildlife conservation in the mountain region of Nepal. Timely introducing incentive programs can be a supportive way for sustaining the conservation of snow leopards in the Nepalese Himalayas.

Keywords: economic loss, livestock depredation, local people, perception, snow leopard

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Authors: Ahmad Sharif Ahmadi, Yoshitaka Kajita

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Kabul city is experiencing urban land expansion in an unprecedented scale, especially since the last decade. With massive population expansion and fast economic development, urban land has increasingly expanded and encroached upon agriculture land during the urbanization history of the city. This paper evaluates the integrated urban land expansion impact on agriculture land in Kabul city since the formation of the basic structure of the city between 1962-1964. The paper studies the temporal and spatial characteristic of agriculture land and agriculture land loss in Kabul city using geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing till 2008. Many temporal Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imageries were interpreted to detect the temporal and spatial characteristics of agriculture land loss. Different interval study periods, however, had vast difference in the agriculture land loss which is due to the urban land expansion trends in the city. the high number of Agriculture land adjacent to the city center and urban fringe have been converted into urban land during the study period in the city, as the agriculture land is highly correlated with the urban land.

Keywords: agriculture land, agriculture land loss, Kabul city, urban land expansion, urbanization

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Authors: Wu Xiaoguang, Liu Jiaxin, Fang Miaomiao, Wei Saidong

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There are many prestressed concrete prefabricated girder Bridges with small and medium span and the damage is serious. This paper mainly study the effect of prestress loss of prefabricated bridge bearing performance, through the establishment of ANSYS finite element model, from the condition of different prestress loss research, get the stress and strain data, draw curve, finally get the following conclusion: loss of prestress can reduce the ultimate bearing capacity of Bridges, the side span across the deflection value than the influence of times side span, the influence of the deflection in the midspan cross value. Therefore, the prestress loss and the effective prestress should be strictly considered in the design and construction process.

Keywords: across the deflection, loss of prestress, prefabricated girder bridge, the main tensile stress

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Authors: Rickard Grassman, Carl Cederström

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In this paper, Lacanian theory will be used to illustrate the way discourses interact with the material by way of reifying antagonisms to shape our sense of identities in and around organizations. The ability to ‘sustain the loss’ is, in this view, the common structure here discerned in the very texture of a discourse, which reifies ‘lack’ as an ontological condition into something contingently absent (loss) that the subject hopes to overcome (desire). These fundamental human tendencies of identification are illustrated in the paper by examples drawn from history, cinema, and literature. Turning to a select sample of empirical accounts from a management consultancy firm, it is argued that this ‘sustaining the loss’ operates in discourse to enact identification in an organizational context.

Keywords: Lacan, identification, discourse, desire, loss

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Authors: Mennani Maha, Attak El Houssain

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Under the massive effect of the Covid-19 health crisis, marked by a loss of competitiveness, a slowdown in growth and an accumulation of the repercussions of socio-economic inequalities, a considerable effort must be combined, in Morocco, to put into perspective macro-political, macro-economic and social opportunities. The development of a new economic and social approach is essential in order to respond to the authenticity of the new development model that will be used by the country. The appropriation of strategies of solidarity and social cohesion constitutes a participatory, competitive and inclusive approach to support the functionalities of the economic, social and political system. Therefore, the search for alternative financial resources has become a necessity to achieve the objectives of sustainable socio-economic growth on the one hand; and to promote, on the other hands, the dynamics, of large scale, social investments. The zakat remains a site of the Islamic economy dedicated to stimulating the bases of a collective adhesion of the population on the economic, as well as on the social level, thanks to a fair and equitable distribution of the zakat funds. However, Morocco is one of the few Muslim countries that has not yet had an institution for collecting and distributing this Islamic duty, which makes it difficult to measure the socio-economic impact of zakat. This theoretical document essentially ensures the development of the crucial utility of institutionalizing zakat in order to reinforce the objectives of social solidarity in Morocco in line with the process of conceptualizing a new development model.

Keywords: zakat, socio-economic development, solidarity, social investment

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Authors: Dchieche Amina, Aboulaich Rajae

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Profit and loss sharing suggests an equitable sharing of risks and profits between the parts involved in a financial transaction. Salam is a contract in which advance payment is made for goods to be delivered at a future date. The purpose of this work is to price a new contract for profit and loss sharing based on Salam contract, using Khiyar Al Ghabn which is an agreement of choice in case of misrepresent facts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, shariah compliance, profit and loss sharing, derivatives, risks, hedging, salam contract

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Authors: Jonathan A. Mikhail, Arsenio Paez

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It is not uncommon for a viral infection to cause hearing loss. Many viral infections are associated with sudden-onset, often unilateral, idiopathic sensorineural hearing loss. We conducted an exploratory study with thirty patients with pre-existing hearing loss between 50 and 64 to evaluate if COVID-19 was associated with exacerbated hearing loss. We hypothesized that hearing loss would be exacerbated by COVID-19 infection in patients with pre-existing hearing loss. A statistically significant paired T-test between pure tone averages (PTAs) at the patient’s original diagnosis and a current, updated audiometric assessment indicated a regression in hearing (p-value < .001) sensitivity following the contraction of COVID-19. Speech reception thresholds (SRTs) and word recognition scores (WRSs) were also considered, as well as the participants' gender. SRTs between each ear exhibited a statistically significant change (p-value of .002 and p-value < .001). WRSs did not show statistically significant differences (p-value of .290 and p-value of .098). A non-statistically significant Two-Way ANOVA was performed to evaluate gender’s potential role in exacerbated hearing loss and proved to be statistically insignificant (p-value of .214). This study discusses practical implications for clinical and educational pursuits in understanding COVID-19's effect on the auditory system and the need to evaluate the deadly virus further.

Keywords: audiology, COVID-19, sensorineural hearing loss, otology, auditory research

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Authors: Philippe Gugler

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This contribution reflects some important questions regarding inter alia the economic development occurring in the light of the ASEAN’s goal of creating the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015. We observe a continuing economic growth of GDP per capita over recent years despite the negative effects of the world economic crisis. IMF forecasts indicate that this trend will continue. The paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of economic growth trends of ASEAN countries.

Keywords: ASEAN, convergence, divergence, economic growth, globalization, integration

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Authors: Filipa Cortez, Vanessa Pereira

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Introduction: The main challenge of obesity treatment is long-term weight loss maintenance. The 3 phases method is a weight loss program that combines a low carb and moderately high-protein diet, food supplements and a weekly one-to-one consultation with a certified nutritionist. Sustained weight control is the ultimate goal of phase 3. Success criterion was the minimum loss of 10% of initial weight and its maintenance after 12 months. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with successful weight loss maintenance after 12 months at the end of 3 phases method. Methods: The study included 199 subjects that achieved their weight loss goal (phase 3). Weight and body mass index (BMI) were obtained at the baseline and every week until the end of the program. Therapeutic adherence was measured weekly on a Likert scale from 1 to 5. Subjects were considered in compliance with nutritional recommendation and supplementation when their classification was ≥ 4. After 12 months of the method, the current weight and number of previous weight-loss attempts were collected by telephone interview. The statistical significance was assumed at p-values < 0.05. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS TM software v.21. Results: 65.3% of subjects met the success criterion. The factors which displayed a significant weight loss maintenance prediction were: greater initial percentage weight loss (OR=1.44) during the weight loss intervention and a higher number of consultations in phase 3 (OR=1.10). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the percentage weight loss during the weight loss intervention and the number of consultations in phase 3 may facilitate maintenance of weight loss after the 3 phases method.

Keywords: obesity, weight maintenance, low-carbohydrate diet, dietary supplements

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Authors: D. Cardone

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Past earthquakes have shown that seismic events may incur large economic losses in buildings. FEMA P-58 provides engineers a practical tool for the performance seismic assessment of buildings. In this study, FEMA P-58 is applied to two typical Italian pre-1970 reinforced concrete frame buildings, characterized by plain rebars as steel reinforcement and masonry infills and partitions. Given that suitable tools for these buildings are missing in FEMA P- 58, specific fragility curves and loss functions are first developed. Next, building performance is evaluated following a time-based assessment approach. Finally, expected annual losses for the selected buildings are derived and compared with past applications to old RC frame buildings representative of the US building stock. 

Keywords: FEMA P-58, RC frame buildings, plain rebars, Masonry infills, fragility functions, loss functions, expected annual loss

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Authors: Shahzad Yousaf, Imran Shafi

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This paper presents a new method for calculation of pressure loss coefficients by use of the artificial neural network (ANN) in tee junctions. Geometry and flow parameters are feed into ANN as the inputs for purpose of training the network. Efficacy of the network is demonstrated by comparison of the experimental and ANN based calculated data of pressure loss coefficients for combining flows in a tee junction. Reynolds numbers ranging from 200 to 14000 and discharge ratios varying from minimum to maximum flow for calculation of pressure loss coefficients have been used. Pressure loss coefficients calculated using ANN are compared to the models from literature used in junction flows. The results achieved after the application of ANN agrees reasonably to the experimental values.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, combining flow, pressure loss coefficients, solar collector tee junctions

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Authors: Wilmer Osvaldo Martinez, Manuel Dario Hernandez, Juan Manuel Julio

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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through stochastic loss order rather than expected loss order, which is the way it is customarily performed in previous work. Moreover, since forecast performance evaluation can be understood as a one way analysis of variance, we propose to explore loss distributions under two circumstances; when a strict (but unknown) joint stochastic order exists among the losses of all forecast alternatives, and when such order happens among subsets of alternative procedures. In spite of the fact that loss stochastic order is stronger than loss moment order, our proposals are at least as powerful as competing tests, and are robust to the correlation, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity settings they consider. In addition, since our proposals do not require samples of the same size, their scope is also wider, and provided that they test the whole loss distribution instead of just loss moments, they can also be used to study forecast distributions as well. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposals by evaluating a set of real world forecasts.

Keywords: forecast evaluation, stochastic order, multiple comparison, non parametric test

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Authors: A. Sunkar, A. Saraswati, Y. Santosa

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Controversies surrounding the impacts of oil palm plantations have resulted in some heated debates, especially concerning biodiversity loss and indigenous people well-being. The indigenous people of Dayak generally used wildlife to fulfill their daily needs thus were assumed to have experienced negative impacts due to oil palm developments within and surrounding their settlement areas. This study was conducted to identify the characteristics of the Dayak community settled around an oil palm plantation, to determine their perceptions of wildlife loss or gain as the results of the development of oil palm plantations, and to identify the determinant characteristic of the perceptions. The research was conducted on March 2018 in Nanga Tayap and Tajok Kayong Villages, which were located around the oil palm plantation of NTYE of Ketapang, West Kalimantan-Indonesia. Data were collected through in depth-structured interview, using closed and semi-open questionnaires and three-scale Likert statements. Interviews were conducted with 74 respondents using accidental sampling, and categorized into respondents who were dependent on oil palm for their livelihoods and those who were not. Data were analyzed using quantitative statistics method, Likert Scale, Chi-Square Test, Spearman Test, and Mann-Whitney Test. The research found that the indigenous Dayak people were aware of wildlife species loss and gain since the establishment of the plantation. Nevertheless, wildlife loss did not affect their social, economic, and cultural needs since they could find substitutions. It was found that prior to the plantation’s development, the local Dayak communities were already slowly experiencing some livelihood transitions through local village development. The only determinant characteristic of the community that influenced their perceptions of wildlife loss/gain was level of education.

Keywords: wildlife, oil palm plantations, indigenous Dayak, biodiversity loss and gain

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Authors: Kumaraamy Sasikumar

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The study was conducted in Vadamarachchi-East in Sri Lanka. Data collection was done for a period of two months from June to July 2011. The main focus of this study was to examine factors contributing to mangrove deforestation within the study area, and resultant impacts from deforestation. The study found that, the main factors that have contributed to deforestation include: Long civil wars in the region, poverty which pushed people to clear the forest to earn income through the sale of firewood and timber among others, industrial development, increasing demand for farm and settlement land, limited knowledge within the local community, weak government polices and implementation strategies, and natural disasters especially the 2004 Tsunami destruction. The impacts presented are those that impact both on the environment and the economy including; loss of income sources, loss of biodiversity, climate change, desertification, conflicts in the use of forest products and loss of land productivity due to reduced fertility caused by soil erosion. However, a few strategies have been put in place by the government to ensure the sustainable use of mangrove forest products, though these have not proved successful in reducing deforestation. The recommendations make suggestions to the government and other stakeholders to work together in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources, for example implementing laws and regulations aimed at controlling deforestation among others.

Keywords: deforestation, impacts, actors, environment, economic, sustainable development

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Authors: M. B. Ahmadi, A. A. Kaffash B., B. Mobaraki

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Slump loss, which refers to the gradual reduction of workability and the amount of slump in fresh concrete over time, is one of the significant challenges in the ready-mixed concrete industry. Therefore, having accurate knowledge of the factors affecting slump loss is a crucial solution in this field. In this paper, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of cement produced by different units on the slump of concrete in a laboratory setting. For this purpose, 12 cement samples were prepared from 6 different production units. Physical and chemical tests were performed on the cement samples. Subsequently, a laboratory concrete mix with a slump of 13 ± 1 cm was prepared with each cement sample, and the slump was measured at 0, 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes. Although the environmental factors, mix design specifications, and execution conditions—factors that significantly influence the slump loss trend—were constant in all 12 laboratory concrete mixes, the slump loss trends differed among them. These trends were categorized based on the results, and the relationship between the slump loss percentage in 60 minutes, the water-cement ratio, and the LOI and K2O values of different cements were introduced.

Keywords: concrete, slump loss, portland cement, efficiency

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Kofi Kyei, Kenchi Matsui

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Loss of vegetable products has been a major constraint in the post-harvest chain. Sources of post-harvest loss in the vegetable industry start from the time of harvesting to its handling and at the various market centers. Identifying vegetable farmers’ perceptions about post-harvest loss sources is one way of addressing this issue. In this paper, we assessed farmers’ perceptions about sources of post-harvest losses in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. We also identified the factors that influence their perceptions. To clearly understand farmers’ perceptions, we selected Sekyere-Kumawu District in the Ashanti Region. Sekyere-Kumawu District is one of the major producers of vegetables in the Region. Based on a questionnaire survey, 100 vegetable farmers growing tomato, pepper, okra, cabbage, and garden egg were purposely selected from five communities in Sekyere-Kumawu District. For farmers’ perceptions, the five points Likert scale was employed. On a scale from 1 (no loss) to 5 (extremely high loss), we processed the scores for each vegetable harvest. To clarify factors influencing farmers’ perceptions, the Pearson Correlation analysis was used. Our findings revealed that farmers perceive post-harvest loss by pest infestation as the most extreme loss. However, vegetable farmers did not perceive loss during transportation as a serious source of post-harvest loss. The Pearson Correlation analysis results further revealed that farmers’ age, gender, level of education, and years of experience had an influence on their perceptions. This paper then discusses some recommendations to minimize the post-harvest loss in the region.

Keywords: Ashanti Region, pest infestation, post-harvest loss, vegetable farmers

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung, Steven N. MacEachern

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Check loss function is used to define quantile regression. In the prospect of cross validation, it is also employed as a validation function when underlying truth is unknown. However, our empirical study indicates that the validation with check loss often leads to choosing an over estimated fits. In this work, we suggest a modified or L2-adjusted check loss which rounds the sharp corner in the middle of check loss. It has a large effect of guarding against over fitted model in some extent. Through various simulation settings of linear and non-linear regressions, the improvement of check loss by L2 adjustment is empirically examined. This adjustment is devised to shrink to zero as sample size grows.

Keywords: cross-validation, model selection, quantile regression, tuning parameter selection

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Authors: Abdulrazaq O. Raji, Abba Mohammed, Ibrahim D. Mohammed

Abstract:

This study was conducted to investigate foetal loss among slaughtered livestock species at the Maiduguri abattoir from 2009 to 2013. Record of animals slaughtered monthly and fetuses recovered were collected from the management of the Maiduguri abattoir. Data was subjected to Analysis of Variance using the General Linear Model of SPSS 13.0 with Season, Species and their interaction as fixed factors. Average yearly slaughter at the Maiduguri abattoir was 63,225 animals with cattle, camel, goat and sheep accounting for 19737, 7374, 19281 and 17540 of the total. The corresponding number of those pregnant were 3117, 839, 2281 and 2432 out of a total of 8522 animals. Thus, cattle, camel, goat and sheep accounted for 30.87, 11.53, 30.16 and 27.44%, respectively of the animals slaughtered at the Abattoir and 35.96, 9.68, 26.31 and 28.05% of the foetal loss. The effect of season and species on foetal loss was significant (P < 0.05). The number of pregnant animals slaughtered and foetal loss were higher during wet than dry season. Similarly, foetal loss at the abattoir was higher in the month of May in respect of camel, goat and sheep, and August for cattle. Camel was the least slaughtered animal and had the least number of pregnant females. Foetal loss (%) was higher (P < 0.05) for cattle compared to other species. The interaction showed that camel was the least slaughtered species in both seasons and cattle in the wet season had the highest foetal loss.

Keywords: abattoir, foetal loss, season, species

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