Search results for: climate risk

Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

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When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

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Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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Authors: Tanveer Ahmed Choudhury

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Background: Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world, with high population density and high rates of poverty and illiteracy. 80% of the country is on low-lying floodplains, leaving the country one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change: sea level rise, cyclones and storms, salinity intrusion, rising temperatures and heavy monsoon downpours. Such climatic events already limit Economic Development in the country. Although Bangladesh has had little responsibility in contributing to global climatic change, it is vulnerable to both its direct and indirect impacts. Real threats include reduced agricultural production, worsening food security, increased incidence of flooding and drought, spreading disease and an increased risk of conflict over scarce land and water resources. Currently, 8.3 million Bangladeshis live in cyclone high risk areas. However, by 2050 this is expected to grow to 20.3 million people, if proper adaptive actions are not taken. Under a high emissions scenario, an additional 7.6 million people will be exposed to very high salinity by 2050 compared to current levels. It is also projected that, an average of 7.2 million people will be affected by flooding due to sea level rise every year between 2070-2100 and If global emissions decrease rapidly and adaptation interventions are taken, the population affected by flooding could be limited to only about 14,000 people. To combat the climate change adverse effects, Bangladesh government has initiated many adaptive measures specially in infrastructure and renewable energy sector. Government is investing huge money and initiated many projects which have been proved very success full. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to describe some successful measures initiated by Bangladesh government in its effort to make the country a Climate Resilient. Methodology: Review of operation plan and activities of different relevant Ministries of Bangladesh government. Result: The following initiative projects, programs and activities are considered as best practices for Climate Change adaptation successes for Bangladesh: 1. The Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL); 2. Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit (CCHPU); 3. The Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF); 4. Community Climate Change Project (CCCP); 5. Health, Population, Nutrition Sector Development Program (HPNSDP, 2011-2016)- "Climate Change and Environmental Issues"; 6. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh and WHO Collaboration; - National Adaptation Plan. -"Building adaptation to climate change in health in least developed countries through resilient WASH". 7. COP-21 “Climate and health country profile -2015 Bangladesh. Conclusion: Due to a vast coastline, low-lying land and abundance of rivers, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change. Having extensive experience with facing natural disasters, Bangladesh has developed a successful adaptation program, which led to a significant reduction in casualties from extreme weather events. In a low income country setting, Bangladesh had successfully adapted various projects and initiatives to combat future Climate Change challenges.

Keywords: climate, change, success, Bangladesh

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Authors: Hasen Keder Edris, Ryuji Matsunaga, Toshi Yamanaka

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The issue of climate change and its impact is a major contemporary global concern. Ethiopia is one of the countries experiencing adverse climate change impact including frequent extreme weather events that are exacerbating drought and water scarcity. Due to this reason, the government of Ethiopia develops a strategic document which focuses on the climate resilience green economy. One of the major components of the strategic framework is designed to improve community adaptation capacity and mitigation of drought. For effective implementation of the strategy, identification of regions relative vulnerability to drought is vital. There is a growing tendency of applying Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies for collecting information on duration and severity of drought by direct measure of the topography as well as an indirect measure of land cover. This study aims to show an application of remote sensing technology and GIS for developing drought vulnerability index by taking lowland of Ethiopia as a case study. In addition, it assesses integrated Information Communication Technology (ICT) potential of Ethiopia lowland and proposes integrated solution. Satellite data is used to detect the beginning of the drought. The severity of drought risk prone areas of livestock keeping pastoral is analyzed through normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ten years rainfall data. The change from the existing and average SPOT NDVI and vegetation condition index is used to identify the onset of drought and potential risks. Secondary data is used to analyze geographical coverage of mobile and internet usage in the region. For decades, the government of Ethiopia introduced some technologies and approach to overcoming climate change related problems. However, lack of access to information and inadequate technical support for the pastoral area remains a major challenge. In conventional business as usual approach, the lowland pastorals continue facing a number of challenges. The result indicated that 80% of the region face frequent drought occurrence and out of this 60% of pastoral area faces high drought risk. On the other hand, the target area mobile phone and internet coverage is rapidly growing. One of identified ICT solution enabler technology is telecom center which covers 98% of the region. It was possible to identify the frequently affected area and potential drought risk using the NDVI remote-sensing data analyses. We also found that ICT can play an important role in mitigating climate change challenge. Hence, there is a need to strengthen implementation efforts of climate change adaptation through integrated Remote Sensing and web based information dissemination and mobile alert of extreme events.

Keywords: climate changes, ICT, pastoral, remote sensing

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Authors: Gayathri Pramod, Sheeja K. P.

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Urban flooding has been seen rising in cities for the past few years. This rise in urban flooding is the result of increasing urbanization and increasing climate change. A resilient city design focuses on 'living with water'. This means that the city is capable of accommodating the floodwaters without having to risk any loss of lives or properties. The resilient city design incorporates green infrastructure, river edge treatment, open space design, etc. to form a city that functions as a whole for resilience. Sponge urbanism is a recent method for building resilient cities and is founded by China in 2014. Sponge urbanism is the apt method for resilience building for a tropical town like Aluva of Kerala. Aluva is a tropical town that experiences rainfall of about 783 mm per month during the rainy season. Aluva is an urbanized town which faces the risk of urban flooding and riverine every year due to the presence of Periyar River in the town. Impervious surfaces and hard construction and developments contribute towards flood risk by posing as interference for a natural flow and natural filtration of water into the ground. This type of development is seen in Aluva also. Aluva is designed in this research as a town that have resilient strategies of sponge city and which focusses on natural methods of construction. The flood susceptibility of Aluva is taken into account to design the spaces for sponge urbanism and in turn, reduce the flood susceptibility for the town. Aluva is analyzed, and high-risk zones for development are identified through studies. These zones are designed to withstand the risk of flooding. Various catchment areas are identified according to the natural flow of water, and then these catchment areas are designed to act as a public open space and as detention ponds in case of heavy rainfall. Various development guidelines, according to land use, is also prescribed, which help in increasing the green cover of the town. Aluva is then designed to be a completely flood-adapted city or sponge city according to the guidelines and interventions.

Keywords: climate change, flooding, resilient city, sponge city, sponge urbanism, urbanization

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: David Idiata

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This paper is directed at using the UKCP09 climate change projection tool to predict the effect of climate change on the dynamic modulus of asphalt concrete is Southern England knowing that there is a pressing challenge directly facing infrastructure in the urban cities in the world today due to climate change. Climate change causes change in the environment which in turn impacts on the long-term structural performance of structures. From the projection values obtained, it was discovered that as the temperature increases, the dynamic modulus reduces and this effect was more on the South West which have temperature range of 36.8 oC to 48.3 oC and dynamic modulus range of 2,212 MPa to 1256 MPa.

Keywords: dynamic modulus, asphalt concrete, UKCP09, Southern England

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Authors: Tas Yong Koh, Steve Rowlinson, Yuzhong Shen

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In construction safety management, safety climate has long been linked to workers' safety behaviors and performance. For this reason, safety climate concept and tools have been used as heuristics to diagnose a range of safety-related issues by some progressive contractors in Hong Kong and elsewhere. However, as a diagnostic tool, safety climate tends to treat the different components of the climate construct in a linear fashion. Safety management in construction projects, in reality, is a multi-faceted and multilevel phenomenon that resembles a complex system. Hence, understanding safety management in construction projects requires not only the understanding of safety climate but also the organizational-systemic nature of the phenomenon. Our involvement, diagnoses, and interpretations of a range of safety climate-related issues which culminated in the project’s sub-optimum safety performance in an infrastructure construction project have brought about such revelation. In this study, a range of data types had been collected from various hierarchies of the project site organization. These include the frontline workers and supervisors from the main and sub-contractors, and the client supervisory personnel. Data collection was performed through the administration of safety climate questionnaire, interviews, observation, and document study. The findings collectively indicate that what had emerged in parallel of the seemingly linear climate-based exploration is the exposition of the organization-systemic nature of the phenomenon. The results indicate the negative impacts of climate perceptions mismatch, insufficient work planning, and risk management, mixed safety leadership, workforce negative attributes, lapsed safety enforcement and resources shortages collectively give rise to the project sub-optimum safety performance. From the dynamic causation and multilevel perspective, the analyses show that the individual, group, and organizational levels issues are interrelated and these interrelationships are linked to negative safety climate. Hence the adoption of both perspectives has enabled a fuller understanding of the phenomenon of safety management that point to the need for an organizational-systemic intervention strategy. The core message points to the fact that intervention at an individual level will only meet with limited success if the risks embedded in the higher levels in group and project organization are not addressed. The findings can be used to guide the effective development of safety infrastructure by linking different levels of systems in a construction project organization.

Keywords: construction safety management, dynamic causation, multilevel analysis, safety climate

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Authors: Petra F. A. Dilling, Sinan Caykoylu

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The aim of this study was to shed light on the understanding of the factors determining a company’s disclosure on climate change reporting. The underlying study examines the effect of gender diversity and the mediating effect of female representation in management and on the board of directors and the existence of a dedicated sustainability board committee. To test the study’s objectives, the authors use a global sample of the largest companies and their reporting for the year 2020. The results suggest that corporate female participation has a significant influence on the quality of climate change reporting. In addition, having a dedicated sustainability board committee also significantly impacts the non-financial disclosure of climate change information.

Keywords: climate change, non-financial reporting, governance, board diversity, sustainability, CSR

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Authors: Aparna Radhakrishnan, Jancy Gupta, R. Dileepkumar

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This paper aims at assessing the Socio Economic Vulnerability (SEV) of dairy farmers to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in 3 states of Western Ghat region in India. For this purpose, a composite SEV index has been developed on the basis of functional relationships amongst sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity using 30 indicators related to dairy farming underlying the principles of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Fussel framework for nomenclature of vulnerable situation. Household level data were collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal and personal interviews of 540 dairy farmers of nine taluks, three each from a district selected from Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall SEV index. Results indicated that the taluks of Western Ghats are vulnerable to CVC. The dairy farmers of Pulpally taluka were most vulnerable having the SEV score +1.24 and 42.66% farmers under high-level vulnerability category. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is wide variation in SEV components. Policies for incentivizing the ‘climate risk adaptation’ costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region.

Keywords: climate change, dairy, vulnerability, livelihoods, adaptation strategies

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: Mara Balestrieri

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Climate change has long been the focus of attention for the growing impact of extreme weather events and global warming in many areas of the planet and the evidence of economic, social, and environmental damage caused by global warming. Nowadays, climate change is recognized as a critical global problem. Several initiatives have been undertaken over time to enhance the long theoretical debate and field experience in order to reduce Co2 emissions and contain climate alteration. However, the awareness that climate change is already taking place has led to a growing demand for adaptation. It is certainly a matter of anticipating the negative effects of climate change but, at the same time, implementing appropriate actions to prevent climate change-related damage, minimize the problems that may result, and also seize any opportunities that may arise. Consequently, adaptation has become a core element of climate policy and research. However, the attention to this issue has not developed in a uniform manner across countries. Some countries are further ahead than others. This paper examines the literature on climate change adaptation developed until 2018 in Italy, considering the urban dimension, to provide a framework for it, and to identify main topics and features. The papers were selected from Scopus and were analyzed through a matrix that we propose. Results demonstrate that adaptation to climate change studies attracted increasing attention from Italian scientific communities in the last years, although Italian scientific production is still quantitatively lower than in other countries and describes strengths and weaknesses in line with international panorama with respect to objectives, sectors, and problems.

Keywords: adaptation, bibliometric literature, climate change, urban studies

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

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Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

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Authors: Sombol Mokhles

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Tackling climate change requires expanding networking opportunities between a diverse range of cities to accelerate climate actions. Existing climate city networks have limitations in actively engaging “ordinary” cities in networking processes between cities, as they encourage a few powerful cities to be followed by the many “ordinary” cities. To reimagine the networking opportunities between cities beyond global cities, this paper incorporates “cosmopolitan comparison” to expand our knowledge of a diverse range of cities using a data-driven approach. Through a cosmopolitan perspective, a framework is presented on how to utilise large data to expand knowledge of cities beyond global cities to reimagine the existing hierarchical networking practices. The contribution of this framework is beyond urban climate governance but inclusive of different fields which strive for a more inclusive and cosmopolitan comparison attentive to the differences across cities.

Keywords: cosmopolitan city comparison, data-driven approach, climate city networking, urban climate governance

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Authors: T. Davitashvili

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In this paper, some results of numerical simulation of the air flow dynamics in the troposphere over the Caucasus Mountains taking place in conditions of nonstationarity of large-scale undisturbed background flow are presented. Main features of the atmospheric currents changeability while air masses are transferred from the Black Sea to the land’s surface had been investigated. In addition, the effects of thermal and advective-dynamic factors of atmosphere on the changes of the West Georgian climate have been studied. It was shown that non-proportional warming of the Black Sea and Colkhi lowland provokes the intensive strengthening of circulation and effect of climate cooling in the western Georgia.

Keywords: regional climate, numerical simulation, local circulation, orographic effect

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Authors: Sujo Meghwar, Zulfqar Ali laghari, Kanji Harijan, Muhib Ali Lagari, G. M. Mastoi, Ali Mohammad Rind

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Thar Desert is the most populous Desert of the world. Climate variation in Thar Desert has induced an increase in the magnitude of drought. The variation in climate variation has caused a decrease in natural vegetations. Some plant species are eliminated forever. We have applied the SPI (standardized precipitation index) climate model to investigate the drought induced by climate change. We have gathered the anthropogenic response through a developed questionnaire. The data was analyzed in SPSS version 18. The met-data of two meteorological station elaborated by the time series has suggested an increase in temperature from 1-2.5 centigrade, the decrease in rain fall rainfall from 5-25% and reduction in humidity from 5-12 mm in the 20th century. The anthropogenic responses indicate high impact of climate change on human life and vegetations. Triangle data, we have collected, gives a new insight into the understanding of an association between climate change, drought and human activities.

Keywords: Thar desert, human impact, vegetations, temperature, rainfall, humidity

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Authors: Elisha Kyirem

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Undoubtedly, climate change is a major global challenge that could threaten the very foundation upon which life on earth is anchored, with its impacts on human mobility attracting the attention of policy makers and researchers. There is an increasing body of literature and case studies suggesting that migration could be a way through which the vulnerable move away from areas exposed to climate extreme events to improve their lives and that of their families. This presents migration as a way through which people voluntarily move to seek opportunities that could help reduce their exposure and avoid danger from climate events. Thus, migration is seen as a proactive adaptation strategy aimed at building resilience and improving livelihoods to enable people to adapt to future changing events. However, there has not been any mathematical equation linking migration and climate change adaptation. Drawing from literature in development studies, this paper develops an equation that seeks to link the relationship between migration and climate change adaptation. The mathematical equation establishes the linkages between migration, resilience, poverty reduction and vulnerability, and these the paper maintains, are the key variables for conceptualizing the migration-climate change adaptation nexus. The paper then tests the validity of the equation using the sustainable livelihood framework and publicly available data on migration and tourism in Ghana.

Keywords: migration, adaptation, climate change, adaptation, poverty reduction

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: Nada Mohamed, Abdel Aziz Mohamed

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Climate change in coastal areas is a global issue that can be felt on local scale and will be around for decades and centuries to come to an end; it also has critical risks on the city’s economy, communities, and the natural environment. One of these changes that cause a huge risk on coastal cities is the sea level rise (SLR). SLR is a result of scarcity and reduction in global environmental system. The main cause of climate change and global warming is the countries with high development index (HDI) as Japan and Germany while the medium and low HDI countries as Egypt does not have enough awareness and advanced tactics to adapt with this changes that destroy urban areas and cause loss in land and economy. This is why Climate Resilience is one of the UN sustainable development goals 2030, which is calling for actions to strengthen climate change resilience through mitigation and adaptation. For many reasons, adaptation has received less attention than mitigation and it is only recently that adaptation has become a focal global point of attention. This adaption can be achieved through some actions such as upgrading the use and the design of the land, adjusting business and activities of people, and increasing community understanding of climate risks. To reach the adaption goals, and we have to apply a strategic pathway to Climate Resilience, which is the Urban Bioregionalism Paradigm. Resiliency has been framed as persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Climate Resilience decision support system includes a visualization platform where ecological, social, and economic information can be viewed alongside with specific geographies that's why Urban Bioregionalism is a socio-ecological system which is defined as a paradigm that has potential to help move social attitudes toward environmental understanding and deepen human-environment connections within ecological development. The research aim is to achieve an adaptive integrated urban development model throughout the analyses of tactics and strategies that can be used to adapt urban areas and coastal communities to the challenges of climate changes especially SLR and also simulation model using advanced technological software for a coastal city corridor to elaborates the suitable strategy to apply.

Keywords: climate resilience, sea level rise, SLR, coastal resilience, adaptive development simulation

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Mahmoud Roushdi, Hany Mostafa, Khaled Kheireldin

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Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor are promising and important economic regions in Egypt due to the unique location and development opportunities. Thus, the climate change impacts should be assessed over the mentioned area. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the climate extreme indices in through the last 35 year over Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor in addition to predict the climate extreme indices up to 2100. Present and future climate indices were analyzed with using different RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from 2010 until 2100 for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor. Furthermore, both CanESM and HadGEM2 global circulation models were used. The results indicate that the number of summer days is predicted to increase, on the other hand the frost days is predicted to decrease. Moreover, it is noted a slight positive trend for the percentile of wet and extremely days R95p and R99p for RCP4.5 and negative trend for RCP8.5.

Keywords: climate change, extreme indices, RCP, Sinai Peninsula

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Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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Authors: O. Babalola Oladapo, A. Igbatayo Samuel

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Climate change and poverty are global issues which cannot be waved aside in welfare of the ever increasing population. The causes / consequences are far more elaborate in developing countries, including Nigeria, which poses threats to the existence of man and his environment. The dominant role of agriculture makes it obvious that even minor climate deteriorations can cause devastating socio-economic consequences. Policies to curb the climate change by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels like oil, gas or carbon compounds have significant economical impacts on the producers/suppliers of these fuels. Thus a unified political narrative that advances both agendas is needed, because their components of an environmental coin that needs to be addressed. The developed world should maintain a low-carbon growth & real commitment of 0.7% of gross national income, as aid to developing countries & renewable energy approach should be emphasized, hence global poverty combated.

Keywords: climate change, greenhouse gases, Nigeria, poverty

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

Abstract:

The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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Authors: Artur Krukowski, Emmanouela Vogiatzaki

Abstract:

The article presents an ongoing work in research projects such as SCAN4RECO or ARCH, both funded by the European Commission under Horizon 2020 program. The former one concerns multimodal and multispectral scanning of Cultural Heritage assets for their digitization and conservation via spatiotemporal reconstruction and 3D printing, while the latter one aims to better preserve areas of cultural heritage from hazards and risks. It co-creates tools that would help pilot cities to save cultural heritage from the effects of climate change. It develops a disaster risk management framework for assessing and improving the resilience of historic areas to climate change and natural hazards. Tools and methodologies are designed for local authorities and practitioners, urban population, as well as national and international expert communities, aiding authorities in knowledge-aware decision making. In this article we focus on 3D modelling of object geometry using primarily photogrammetric methods to achieve very high model accuracy using consumer types of devices, attractive both to professions and hobbyists alike.

Keywords: 3D modelling, UAS, cultural heritage, preservation

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Authors: Prince Dacosta Aboagye, Ayyoob Sharifi

Abstract:

Cities respond to climate concerns mainly through their climate action plans (CAPs). A comprehensive content analysis of the dynamics in existing urban CAPs is not well represented in the literature. This literature void presents a difficulty in appreciating the strengths and weaknesses of urban CAPs. Here, we perform a qualitative content analysis (QCA) on CAPs from 278 cities worldwide and use text-mining tools to map and visualize the relevant data. Our analysis showed a decline in the number of CAPs developed and published following the global COVID-19 lockdown period. Evidently, megacities are leading the deep decarbonisation agenda. We also observed a transition from developing mainly mitigation-focused CAPs pre-COP21 to both mitigation and adaptation CAPs. A lack of inclusiveness in local climate planning was common among European and North American cities. The evidence is a catalyst for understanding the trends in existing urban CAPs to shape future urban climate planning.

Keywords: urban, climate action plans, strengths, weaknesses

Procedia PDF Downloads 65