Search results for: Paris agreement 2015
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3279

Search results for: Paris agreement 2015

3039 A Vaccination Program to Control an Outbreak of Acute Hepatitis A among MSM in Taiwan, 2016

Authors: Ying-Jung Hsieh, Angela S. Huang, Chu-Ming Chiu, Yu-Min Chou, Chin-Hui Yang

Abstract:

Background and Objectives: Hepatitis A is primarily acquired by the fecal-oral route through person-to-person contact or ingestion of contaminated food or water. During 2010 to 2014, an average of 83 cases of locally-acquired disease was reported to Taiwan’s notifiable disease system. Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (TCDC) identified an outbreak of acute hepatitis A which began in June 2015. Of the 126 cases reported in 2015, 103 (82%) cases were reported during June–December and 95 cases (92%) of them were male. The average age of all male cases was 31 years (median, 29 years; range, 15–76 years). Among the 95 male cases, 49 (52%) were also infected with HIV, and all reported to have had sex with other men. To control this outbreak, TCDC launched a free hepatitis A vaccination program in January 2016 for close contacts of confirmed hepatitis A cases, including family members, sexual partners, and household contacts. Effect of the vaccination program was evaluated. Methods: All cases of hepatitis A reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System were included. A case of hepatitis A was defined as a locally-acquired disease in a person who had acute clinical symptoms include fever, malaise, loss of appetite, nausea or abdominal discomfort compatible with hepatitis, and tested positive for anti-HAV IgM during June 2015 to June 2016 in Taiwan. The rate of case accumulation was calculated using a simple regression model. Results: During January–June 2016, there were 466 cases of hepatitis A reported; of the 243 (52%) who were also infected with HIV, 232 (95%) had a history of having sex with men. Of the 346 cases that were followed up, 259 (75%) provided information on contacts but only 14 (5%) of them provided the name of their sexual partners. Among the 602 contacts reported, 349 (58%) were family members, 14 (2%) were sexual partners, and 239 (40%) were other household contacts. Among the 602 contacts eligible for free hepatitis A vaccination, 440 (73%) received the vaccine. There were 87 (25%) cases that refused to disclose their close contacts. The average case accumulation rate during January–June 2016 was 21.7 cases per month, which was 6.8 times compared to the average case accumulation rate during June–December 2015 of 3.2 cases per month. Conclusions: Despite vaccination program aimed to provide free hepatitis A vaccine to close contacts of hepatitis A patients, the outbreak continued and even gained momentum in transmission. Refusal by hepatitis A patients to provide names of their close contacts and rejection of contacts to take the hepatitis A vaccine may have contributed to the poor effect of the program. Targeted vaccination efforts of all MSM may be needed to control the outbreak among this population in the short term. In the long term, universal vaccination program is needed to prevent the infection of hepatitis A.

Keywords: hepatitis A, HIV, men who have sex with men, vaccination

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3038 A 20 Year Comparison of Australian Childhood Bicycle Injuries – Have We Made a Difference?

Authors: Bronwyn Griffin, Caroline Acton, Tona Gillen, Roy Kimble

Abstract:

Background: Bicycle riding is a common recreational activity enjoyed by many children throughout Australia that has been associated with the usual caveat of benefits related to exercise and recreation. Given Australia was the first country in the world to introduce cyclist helmet laws in 1991, very few publications have reviewed paediatric cycling injuries (fatal or non-fatal) since. Objectives: To identify trends in children (0-16 years) who required admission for greater than 24 hours following a bicycle-related injury (fatal and non-fatal) in Queensland. Further, to discuss changes that have occurred in paediatric cycling injury trends in Queensland since a prominent local study/publication in 1995. This paper aims to establish evidence to inform interventions promoting safer riding to parents, children and communities. Methods: Data on paediatric (0-16 years) cycling injuries in Queensland resulting in hospital admission more than 24 hours across three tertiary paediatric hospitals in Brisbane between November 2008-June 2015 was compiled by the Paediatric Trauma Data Registry for non-fatal injuries. The Child Death Review Team at the Queensland Families and Childhood Commission provided data on fatalities in children <17years from (June 2004 –June 2015). Comparing trends to a local study published in 1995 Results: Between 2008-2015 there were 197 patients admitted for greater than 24 hours following a cycling injury. The median age was 11 years, with males more frequently involved (n=139, 87%) compared to females. Mean length of stay was three days, with 47 (28%) children admitted to PICU, location of injury was most often the street (n=63, 37%). Between 2004 –2015 there were 15 fatalities (Incidence rate 0.25/100,000); all were male, 14/15 occurred on the street, with eight stated to have not been wearing a helmet, 11/15 children came from the least advantaged socio-economic group (SEIFA) compared to a local publication in 1995, finding of 94 fatalities between (1981-1992). Conclusions: There has been a notable decrease in incidence of fatalities between the two time periods with incidence rates dropping from 1.75-0.25/100,000. More statistics need to be run to ascertain if this is a true reduction or perhaps a decrease in children riding bicycles. Injuries that occur on the street that come in contact with a car remain of serious concern. The purpose of this paper is not to discourage bicycle riding among child and adolescent populations, rather, inform parents and the wider community about the risks associated with cycling in order to reduce injuries associated with this sport, whilst promoting safe cycling.

Keywords: paediatric, cycling, trauma, prevention, emergency

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3037 Turkey-Syria Relations between 2002-2011 from the Perspective of Social Construction

Authors: Didem Aslantaş

Abstract:

In this study, the reforms carried out by the Justice and Development Party, which came to power in 2002, and how the foreign policy understanding it transformed reflected on the relations with Syria will be analyzed from the social constructivist theory. Contrary to the increasing security concerns of the states after the September 11 attacks, the main problem of the research is how the relations between Syria and Turkey developed and how they progressed in non-security dimensions. In order to find an answer to this question, the basic assumptions of the constructivist theory will be used. Since there is a limited number of studies in the literature, a comparative analysis of the Adana Consensus and the Cooperation Agreement between the Republic of Turkey and the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Joint Cooperation Agreement Against Terrorism and Terrorist Organizations will be included. In order to answer the main problem of the research and to support the arguments, document and archive scanning methods from qualitative research methods will be used. In the first part of the study, what the social constructivist theory is and its basic assumptions are explained, while in the second part, Turkey-Syria relations between 2002-2011 are included. In the third and last part, the relations between the two countries will be tried to be read through social constructivism by referring to the foreign policy features of the Ak Party period.

Keywords: Social Constructivist Theory, foreign policy analysis, Justice and Development Party, Syria

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3036 Risk Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Outbreak in Diredawa Administration City, Ethiopia, October 2015: A Case Control Study

Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

Abstract:

Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

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3035 Bilingual Identities of Kuwaiti Students at Universities with EMI

Authors: Marta Tryzna, Shahd Al Shammari

Abstract:

Though Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) is the only official language in GCC states, including Kuwait, and traditionally the preferred vehicle for literacy in the Arab countries, recent studies in Qatar and the UAE observe a growing role of English, particularly in literacy and knowledge transmission contexts. The present study examines the attitudes to Arabic and English and the use of both languages in literacy-related domains based on a sample of bilingual Arabic-English undergraduates (N=522) at a private university with EMI in Kuwait. The results indicate that Arabic (Kuwaiti dialect) is associated with familial interactions, Arabic-English bilingualism predominates in interactions with classmates, friends, on social media and at work, while English is prevalent in literacy-related contexts such as reading books, magazines, or online material, domains traditionally associated with MSA. Attitudes towards Arabic and English are equally positive according to the majority of the respondents, who report being comfortable expressing themselves and projecting their identity in both languages. No statistically significant differences were found comparing the importance of Arabic and English in the sample. Future trends were identified based on high agreement on the importance of speaking English with children and low agreement on speaking only Arabic at home. The study corroborates recently observed trends in the GCC favoring bilingualism across personal, academic and professional domains, with English becoming the preferred language of literacy among young bilingual Kuwaitis.

Keywords: bilingual, English, Arabic, EMI, identity

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3034 Shear Layer Investigation through a High-Load Cascade in Low-Pressure Gas Turbine Conditions

Authors: Mehdi Habibnia Rami, Shidvash Vakilipour, Mohammad H. Sabour, Rouzbeh Riazi, Hossein Hassannia

Abstract:

This paper deals with the steady and unsteady flow behavior on the separation bubble occurring on the rear portion of the suction side of T106A blade. The first phase was to implement the steady condition capturing the separation bubble. To accurately predict the separated region, the effects of three different turbulence models and computational grids were separately investigated. The results of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model on the finest grid structure are acceptably in a good agreement with its relevant experimental results. The second phase is mainly to address the effects of wake entrance on bubble disappearance in unsteady situation. In the current simulations, from what was suggested in an experiment, simulating the flow unsteadiness, with concentrations on small scale disturbances instead of simulating a complete oncoming wake, is the key issue. Subsequently, the results from the current strategy to apply the effects of the wake and two other experimental work were compared to be in a good agreement. Between the two experiments, one of them deals with wake passing unsteady flow, and the other one implements experimentally the same approach as the current Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation.

Keywords: low-pressure turbine cascade, large-Eddy simulation (LES), RANS turbulence models, unsteady flow measurements, flow separation

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3033 Re-Emergence of Religious Militancy in Pakistan after Return of Afghan Taliban to Power Corridors in Afghanistan (2021-2022)

Authors: Syed Sibtain Hussain Shah

Abstract:

The Afghan Taliban returned to power corridors in Afghanistan in August 2021 after waging a twenty-year insurgency in the country. U.S.-led forces completed their withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, but the Taliban took control of the whole country till August 15, 2021. At the same time, some of the militant groups such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State Khurasan (IS-K) reappeared in Pakistan’s borders and other areas and by increasing attacks on the armed forces of Pakistan and minorities communities. These groups once again created a crucial challenge to the internal security of the country. Since mid of 2021, many of the terrorist incidents in the countries specified in the areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan were committed by TTP and IS-K. The aim of this paper is to investigate the reappearance of TTP and IS-K in 2021 and 2022 as a crucial threat to the internal security of Pakistan. The author will particularly probe threats to the security of military personnel and their installations and threats to human security, including danger to religious minority communities in the different areas of the country, including border areas such as Waziristan, which was once a hub of TTP and other militant groups in the 2000s. The author will employ the relevant method and appropriate theories of security studies, such as religious extremism and terrorism, in this study. TTP, inspired by the Afghan Taliban, initially emerged in Pakistan in 2007 and this group has so far targeted various religious and ethnic communities and government installations in Pakistan. The group is not only against Pakistan’s government policies, but it also committed terrorist attacks on the communities of the other Muslim sects and as well as non-Muslim communities. Most of the prominent figures of this violent group disappeared or escaped to Afghanistan after military actions, such as the larger “Zarb-e-Azb” operation in Pakistan in 2015. IS-K, which established its branch of Khurasan covering Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2015, with its main formation in Iraq and Syria in 2015, by targeting religious minorities such as Shia Muslims, has so far created a vital security challenge for the security of the country.

Keywords: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, Islamic state Khorasan, security threat

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3032 The Power of “Merkiavelli”: Representations of Angela Merkel in the Portuguese Press (2008-2015)

Authors: Ana Mouro, Ana Ramalheira

Abstract:

Since 1989, with the Fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany has undergone a profound restructuring political and economic process. When the Euro Crisis broke out, Germany was no longer the “sick man” of Europe. Instead, it had recovered its dominance as the strongest and wealthiest economy within the European Union. With the European Debt Crisis, that has been taking place in the European Union since the end of 2009, Germany´s Chancellor Angela Merkel has gained the power of deciding, so to say, on the fate of the debtor nations, but she neither stands for binding German commitments, nor refuses assistance. A debate on whether Merkel’s hesitation has been deliberated and used as a means of coercion has arisen on international print media, and the Portuguese Press has been no exception. This study, which was conducted by using news reporting, opinion articles, interviews and editorials, published in the Portuguese weekly Expresso and the daily Público, from 2008 to 2015, tries to show how Merkel’s hesitation, depicted in the press by the term “Merkiavelli”, was perceived in Portugal, a country that had to embrace the austerity measures, imposed by the European Central Bank, but defined under Angela Merkel´s leading role.

Keywords: Euro crisis, “Merkiavelli”, cultural studies, Portuguese quality press

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3031 Understanding Natural Resources Governance in Canada: The Role of Institutions, Interests, and Ideas in Alberta's Oil Sands Policy

Authors: Justine Salam

Abstract:

As a federal state, Canada’s constitutional arrangements regarding the management of natural resources is unique because it gives complete ownership and control of natural resources to the provinces (subnational level). However, the province of Alberta—home to the third largest oil reserves in the world—lags behind comparable jurisdictions in levying royalties on oil corporations, especially oil sands royalties. While Albertans own the oil sands, scholars have argued that natural resource exploitation in Alberta benefits corporations and industry more than it does Albertans. This study provides a systematic understanding of the causal factors affecting royalties in Alberta to map dynamics of power and how they manifest themselves during policy-making. Mounting domestic and global public pressure led Alberta to review its oil sands royalties twice in less than a decade through public-commissioned Royalty Review Panels, first in 2007 and again in 2015. The Panels’ task was to research best practices and to provide policy recommendations to the Government through public consultations with Albertans, industry, non-governmental organizations, and First Nations peoples. Both times, the Panels recommended a relative increase to oil sands royalties. However, irrespective of the Reviews’ recommendations, neither the right-wing 2007 Progressive Conservative Party (PC) nor the left-wing 2015 New Democratic Party (NDP) government—both committed to increase oil sands royalties—increased royalty intake. Why did two consecutive political parties at opposite ends of the political spectrum fail to account for the recommendations put forward by the Panel? Through a qualitative case-study analysis, this study assesses domestic and global causal factors for Alberta’s inability to raise oil sands royalties significantly after the two Reviews through an institutions, interests, and ideas framework. Indeed, causal factors can be global (e.g. market and price fluctuation) or domestic (e.g. oil companies’ influence on the Alberta government). The institutions, interests, and ideas framework is at the intersection of public policy, comparative studies, and political economy literatures, and therefore draws multi-faceted insights into the analysis. To account for institutions, the study proposes to review international trade agreements documents such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) because they have embedded Alberta’s oil sands into American energy security policy and tied Canadian and Albertan oil policy in legal international nods. To account for interests, such as how the oil lobby or the environment lobby can penetrate governmental decision-making spheres, the study draws on the Oil Sands Oral History project, a database of interviews from government officials and oil industry leaders at a pivotal time in Alberta’s oil industry, 2011-2013. Finally, to account for ideas, such as how narratives of Canada as a global ‘energy superpower’ and the importance of ‘energy security’ have dominated and polarized public discourse, the study relies on content analysis of Alberta-based pro-industry newspapers to trace the prevalence of these narratives. By mapping systematically the nods and dynamics of power at play in Alberta, the study sheds light on the factors that influence royalty policy-making in one of the largest industries in Canada.

Keywords: Alberta Canada, natural resources governance, oil sands, political economy

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3030 Non-Invasive Assessment of Peripheral Arterial Disease: Automated Ankle Brachial Index Measurement and Pulse Volume Analysis Compared to Ultrasound Duplex Scan

Authors: Jane E. A. Lewis, Paul Williams, Jane H. Davies

Abstract:

Introduction: There is, at present, a clear and recognized need to optimize the diagnosis of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), particularly in non-specialist settings such as primary care, and this arises from several key facts. Firstly, PAD is a highly prevalent condition. In 2010, it was estimated that globally, PAD affected more than 202 million people and furthermore, this prevalence is predicted to further escalate. The disease itself, although frequently asymptomatic, can cause considerable patient suffering with symptoms such as lower limb pain, ulceration, and gangrene which, in worse case scenarios, can necessitate limb amputation. A further and perhaps the most eminent consequence of PAD arises from the fact that it is a manifestation of systemic atherosclerosis and therefore is a powerful predictor of coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Objective: This cross sectional study aimed to individually and cumulatively compare sensitivity and specificity of the (i) ankle brachial index (ABI) and (ii) pulse volume waveform (PVW) recorded by the same automated device, with the presence or absence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) being verified by an Ultrasound Duplex Scan (UDS). Methods: Patients (n = 205) referred for lower limb arterial assessment underwent an ABI and PVW measurement using volume plethysmography followed by a UDS. Presence of PAD was recorded for ABI if < 0.9 (noted if > 1.30) if PVW was graded as 2, 3 or 4 or a hemodynamically significant stenosis > 50% with UDS. Outcome measure was agreement between measured ABI and interpretation of the PVW for PAD diagnosis, using UDS as the reference standard. Results: Sensitivity of ABI was 80%, specificity 91%, and overall accuracy 88%. Cohen’s kappa revealed good agreement between ABI and UDS (k = 0.7, p < .001). PVW sensitivity 97%, specificity 81%, overall accuracy 84%, with a good level of agreement between PVW and UDS (k = 0.67, p < .001). The combined sensitivity of ABI and PVW was 100%, specificity 76%, and overall accuracy 85% (k = 0.67, p < .001). Conclusions: Combing these two diagnostic modalities within one device provided a highly accurate method of ruling out PAD. Such a device could be utilized within the primary care environment to reduce the number of unnecessary referrals to secondary care with concomitant cost savings, reduced patient inconvenience, and prioritization of urgent PAD cases.

Keywords: ankle brachial index, peripheral arterial disease, pulse volume waveform, ultrasound duplex scan

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3029 Effect of Concrete Strength and Aspect Ratio on Strength and Ductility of Concrete Columns

Authors: Mohamed A. Shanan, Ashraf H. El-Zanaty, Kamal G. Metwally

Abstract:

This paper presents the effect of concrete compressive strength and rectangularity ratio on strength and ductility of normal and high strength reinforced concrete columns confined with transverse steel under axial compressive loading. Nineteen normal strength concrete rectangular columns with different variables tested in this research were used to study the effect of concrete compressive strength and rectangularity ratio on strength and ductility of columns. The paper also presents a nonlinear finite element analysis for these specimens and another twenty high strength concrete square columns tested by other researchers using ANSYS 15 finite element software. The results indicate that the axial force – axial strain relationship obtained from the analytical model using ANSYS are in good agreement with the experimental data. The comparison shows that the ANSYS is capable of modeling and predicting the actual nonlinear behavior of confined normal and high-strength concrete columns under concentric loading. The maximum applied load and the maximum strain have also been confirmed to be satisfactory. Depending on this agreement between the experimental and analytical results, a parametric numerical study was conducted by ANSYS 15 to clarify and evaluate the effect of each variable on strength and ductility of the columns.

Keywords: ANSYS, concrete compressive strength effect, ductility, rectangularity ratio, strength

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3028 The Correlation between Head of Bed Angle and IntraAbdominal Pressure of Intubated Patients; a Pre-Post Clinical Trial

Authors: Sedigheh Samimian, Sadra Ashrafi, Tahereh Khaleghdoost Mohammadi, Mohammad Reza Yeganeh, Ali Ashraf, Hamideh Hakimi, Maryam Dehghani

Abstract:

Introduction: The recommended position for measuring Intra-Abdominal Pressure (IAP) is the supine position. However, patients put in this position are prone to Ventilator-associated pneumonia. This study was done to evaluate the relationship between bed head angle and IAP measurements of intubated patients in the intensive care unit. Methods: In this clinical trial, seventy-six critically ill patients under mechanical ventilation were enrolled. IAP measurement was performed every 8 hours for 24 hours using the KORN method in three different degrees of the head of bed (HOB) elevation (0°, 15°, and 30°). Bland-Altman analysis was performed to identify the bias and limits of agreement among the three HOBs. According to World Society of the Abdominal Compartment Syndrome (WSACS), we can consider two IAP techniques equivalent if a bias of <1 mmHg and limits of agreement of - 4 to +4 were found between them. Data were analyzed using SPSS statistical software (v. 19), and the significance level was considered as 0.05. Results: The prevalence of intra-abdominal hypertension was 18.42%. Mean ± standard deviation (SD) of IAP were 8.44 ± 4.02 mmHg for HOB angle 0°, 9.58 ± 4.52 for HOB angle 15°, and 11.10 ± 4.73 for HOB angle 30o (p = 0.0001). The IAP measurement bias between HOB angle 0◦ and HOB angle 15° was 1.13 mmHg. This bias was 2.66 mmHg between HOB angle 0° and HOB angle 30°. Conclusion: Elevation of HOB angle from 0 to 30 degree significantly increases IAP. It seems that the measurement of IAP at HOB angle 15° was more reliable than 30°.

Keywords: pressure, intra-abdominal hypertension, head of bed, critical care, compartment syndrome, supine position

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3027 The Role and Function of National Land Authority as Mediator in Land Dispute Settlements in Indonesia

Authors: Nia Kurniati, Efa Laela Fakhriah

Abstract:

The regulation in Indonesia provides space for the land dispute to be settled outside the court by the government through National Land. In this case, the bureaucrat of Badan Pertanahan Nasional (BPN) acts as mediator to reach a fair agreement between the disputing parties. Land dispute is from a party who denies the ownership of the other party of a land and denies legal-technical facts written on land certificate published by BPN. Appointing the bureaucrat of BPN as mediator in dispute settlements may possibly create conflict of interest since the object. It has become a concern since bureaucrat of BPN acts as mediator, he will be bias and partial in assisting the dispute settlement, thus the spirit and purposes of mediation will be hampered. This issue triggers to be thoroughly examined further in a relation with the role and function of BPN as land dispute mediator. The methodology used in this research is a normative-legal one with qualitative-legal analytical method. The object of this research is in the form of random sampling of land dispute cases being occurred in some areas. Several principles in mediation have to be made as the base of the consideration to appoint bureaucrat of BPN as mediator since the mediator is an impartial third party, working with both disputing parties and assisting them to reach a fair resolution written in agreement as a foundation of land dispute settlement. The existence of BPN as mediator in land dispute settlement encounters conflict of interest which uphold legal uncertainty to act objectively.

Keywords: Indonesia, land dispute, mediator, national land authority

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3026 Budget Discipline and National Prosperity: The Nigerian Experience

Authors: Ben-Caleb Egbide, Iyoha Francis, Egharevba Mathew, Oduntan Emmanuel

Abstract:

The prosperity of any nation is determined not just by the availability of resources, but also by the discipline exercised in the management of those resources. This paper examines the functional association between adherence to budgetary estimates or budget discipline (BDISC) and national prosperity proxied by Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) and Relative Poverty Index (RPI)/Human Development Index (HDI). Adopting a longitudinal retrospective research strategy, time series data relating to both the endogenous and exogenous variables were extracted from official government publications for 36 years’ (1980-2015 in the case of RGDP and RPI), and for 26 years (1990-2015 in the case of HDI). Ordinary Least Square (OLS), as well as cointegration regressions, were employed to gauge both the short term and long term impact of BDISC on RPI/HDI and RGDP. The results indicated that BDISC is directly related with RGDP but indirectly related with RPI. The implication is that while adherence to budgetary estimate can enhance economic growth, it has the capacity to slow down the rate of poverty in the long run. The paper, therefore, recommend stricter adherence to budgets as a way out of economic under performance in Nigeria and engender the process of promoting human development and national prosperity.

Keywords: budget discipline, human development index, national prosperity, Nigeria

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3025 An Economic and Technological Analysis of Green Hydrogen Production for the Toulouse-Blagnac Airport

Authors: Badr Eddine Lebrouhi, Melissa Lopez Viveros, Silvia De Los Santos, Kolthoum Missaoui, Pamela Ramirez Vidal

Abstract:

Since the Paris Climate Agreement, numerous countries, including France, have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 by enhancing renewable energy capacity and decarbonizing various sectors, including aviation. In this way, the Occitanie region aspires to become a renewable energy pioneer and has focused on Toulouse's Blagnac airport—a prominent hub characterized by high-energy demands. As part of a holistic strategy to reduce the airport's energy dependency, green hydrogen has emerged as a promising alternative fuel, offering the potential to significantly enhance aviation's environmental sustainability. This study assesses the technical and economic aspects of green hydrogen production, particularly its potential to replace fossil kerosene in aviation at Toulouse-Blagnac airport. It analyzes future liquid hydrogen fuel demand, calculates energy requirements for electrolysis and liquefaction, considers diverse renewable energy scenarios, and assesses the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) for economic viability. The research also projects LCOH evolution from 2023 to 2050, offering a comprehensive view of green hydrogen's feasibility as a sustainable aviation fuel, aligning with the region's renewable energy and sustainable aviation objectives.

Keywords: Toulouse-Blagnac Airport, green hydrogen, aviation decarbonization, electrolysis, renewable energy, technical-economic feasibility

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3024 Survey of Related Field for Artificial Intelligence Window Development

Authors: Young Kwon Yang, Bo Rang Park, Hyo Eun Lee, Tea Won Kim, Eun Ji Choi, Jin Chul Park

Abstract:

To develop an artificial intelligence based automatic ventilation system, recent research trends were analyzed and analyzed. This research method is as follows. In the field of architecture and window technology, the use of artificial intelligence, the existing study of machine learning model and the theoretical review of the literature were carried out. This paper collected journals such as Journal of Energy and Buildings, Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, and articles published on Web-sites. The following keywords were searched for articles from 2000 to 2016. We searched for the above keywords mainly in the title, keyword, and abstract. As a result, the global artificial intelligence market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.0% from USD127bn in 2015 to USD165bn in 2017. Start-up investments in artificial intelligence increased from the US $ 45 million in 2010 to the US $ 310 million in 2015, and the number of investments increased from 6 to 54. Although AI is making efforts to advance to advanced countries, the level of technology is still in its infant stage. Especially in the field of architecture, artificial intelligence (AI) is very rare. Based on the data of this study, it is expected that the application of artificial intelligence and the application of architectural field will be revitalized through the activation of artificial intelligence in the field of architecture and window.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, window, fine dust, thermal comfort, ventilation system

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3023 Seasonal Prevalence of Gastrointestinal Parasites and Their Association with Trace Element Contents in Sera of Sheep, Grazing Forages and Soils of Sialkot District, Punjab, Pakistan

Authors: Hafiz M. Rizwan, Muhammad S. Sajid, Zafar Iqbal, Muhammad Saqib

Abstract:

Gastro-intestinal (GI) helminths infection in sheep causes a substantial loss in terms of productivity and constitutes serious economic losses in the world. Different types of forages are rich in trace element contents and may act as a natural resource to improve the trace element deficiencies leading to immunity boost-up in general and against gastrointestinal parasitic infections in particular. In the present study, the level of trace elements (Cu, Co, Mn, Zn) determined in sera of different breeds of sheep, available feedstuffs, respective soil samples and their association with GI helminths in Sialkot district, Punjab, Pakistan. Almost similar prevalence of GI helminths was recorded (32.81%) during spring 2015 and (32.55%) during autumn 2014. The parasitic species identified from the microscopically scanned faecal samples of district Sialkot were Fasciola (F.) hepatica, F. gigantica, Haemonchus contortus, Eimeria crandallis, Gongylonema pulchrum, Oesophagostomum sp., Trichuris ovis, Strongyles sp., Cryptosporidium sp. and Trichostrongylus sp. Among variables like age, sex, and breed, only sex was found significant in district Sialkot. A significant (P < 0.05) variation in the concentration of Zn, Cu, Mn, and Co was recorded in collected forages species. Soils of grazing field showed insignificant (P > 0.05) variation among soils of different tehsils of Sialkot district. Statistically, sera of sheep showed no variation (P > 0.05) during autumn 2014, While, variation (P < 0.05) among different tehsils of Sialkot district during spring 2015 except Co. During autumn 2014 the mean concentration of Cu, Zn, and Co in sera was inversely proportional to the mean EPG of sheep while during spring 2015 only Zn was inversely proportional to the mean EPG of sheep. The trace element-rich forages preferably Zn were effective ones against helminths infection. The trace element-rich forages will be recommended for their utilization as an alternate to improve the trace element deficiencies in sheep which ultimately boost up the immunity against gastrointestinal parasitic infections.

Keywords: coprological examination, gastro-intestinal parasites, prevalence, sheep, trace elements

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3022 Computer Assisted Strategies Help to Pharmacist

Authors: Komal Fizza

Abstract:

All around the world in every field professionals are taking great support from their computers. Computer assisted strategies not only increase the efficiency of the professionals but also in case of healthcare they help in life-saving interventions. The background of this current research is aimed towards two things; first to find out if computer assisted strategies are useful for Pharmacist for not and secondly how much these assist a Pharmacist to do quality interventions. Shifa International Hospital is a 500 bedded hospital, and it is running Antimicrobial Stewardship, during their stewardship rounds pharmacists observed that a lot of wrong doses of antibiotics were coming at times those were being overlooked by the other pharmacist even. So, with the help of MIS team the patients were categorized into adult and peads depending upon their age. Minimum and maximum dose of every single antibiotic present in the pharmacy that could be dispensed to the patient was developed. These were linked to the order entry window. So whenever pharmacist would type any order and the dose would be below or above the therapeutic limit this would give an alert to the pharmacist. Whenever this message pop-up this was recorded at the back end along with the antibiotic name, pharmacist ID, date, and time. From 14th of January 2015 and till 14th of March 2015 the software stopped different users 350 times. Out of this 300 were found to be major errors which if reached to the patient could have harmed them to the greater extent. While 50 were due to typing errors and minor deviations. The pilot study showed that computer assisted strategies can be of great help to the pharmacist. They can improve the efficacy and quality of interventions.

Keywords: antibiotics, computer assisted strategies, pharmacist, stewardship

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3021 Variations of Total Electron Content over High Latitude Region during the 24th Solar Cycle

Authors: Arun Kumar Singh, Rupesh M. Das, Shailendra Saini

Abstract:

The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the total electron content has been investigated over high latitude region during 24th solar cycle (2010-2014). The total electron content data has been observed with the help of Global Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system installed at Indian permanent scientific 'Maitri station' [70˚46’00”S 11˚43’56” E]. The dependence of TEC over a solar cycle has been examined by the performing linear regression analysis between the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and daily total sunspot numbers (SSN). It has been found that the season and level of geomagnetic activity has a considerable effect on the VTEC. It is observed that the VTEC and SSN follow better agreement during summer seasons as compared to winter and equinox seasons and extraordinary agreement during minimum phase (during the year 2010) of the solar cycle. There is a significant correlation between VTEC and SSN during quiet days of the years as compared to overall days of the years (2010-2014). Further, saturation effect has been observed during maximum phase (during the year 2014) of the 24th solar cycle. It is also found that Ap index and SSN has a linear correlation (R=0.37) and the most of the geomagnetic activity occurs during the declining phase of the solar cycle.

Keywords: high latitude ionosphere, sunspot number, correlation, vertical total electron content

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3020 Cold Stunned Sea Turtle Diet Analysis In Cape Cod Bay from 2015-2020

Authors: Lucille McWilliams

Abstract:

As water temperatures drop in November, Kemp’s Ridley, Loggerhead, and Green sea turtles cold-stun in Cape Cod Bay. The foraging ecology of these sea turtles remains an understudied area of research. In this study, we aim to assess the diet of these turtles using a multi-tissue stable isotope analysis of cold-stunned kemp’s ridley, loggerhead, and green sea turtles stranded from 2015 to 2020. Stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen were measured in blood, front and rear flipper, liver, muscle, skin, and scute tissue samples. We predict an elevated level of Nitrogen isotope ratios in kemp’s ridley and loggerhead turtles compared to green turtles due to the carnivorous loggerheads and kemp ridleys’ carnivorous diet and the greens herbivorous diet. We anticipate empty stomachs due to starvation while stranded, and a variety of foraging strategies, migration patterns, and trophic positions between these species. Data collected from this study will add to the knowledge of these turtles’ prey species and aid managers in the preservation of these species as a mitigation strategy for these turtles' extinction.

Keywords: sea turtles, kemp's ridleys, greens, loggerheads, cold-stunning, diet analysis, stable isotope analysis, environmental science, marine biology

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3019 Analysis of Financial Performance Measurement and Financial Distress Assessment of Highway Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange before and during COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Ari Prasetyo, Taufik Faturohman

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia is part of the ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was confirmed to have spread to Indonesia on 2 March 2020. Moreover, the government of Indonesia has been conducting a local lockdown to limit people's movement from one city to another city. Therefore, this situation has impact on business operation, especially on highway companies listed on the Indonesia stock exchange. This study evaluates and measures three companies’ financial performance and health conditions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2016 – 2020. The measurement is conducted by using financial ratio analysis and the Altman Z-score method. The ratio used to measure the financial ratio analysis is taken from the decree of the Ministry of SOE’s KEP-100/MBU/2002 about the company’s health level condition. From the decree, there are eight financial ratios used such as return on equity (ROE), return on investment (ROI), current ratio, cash ratio, collection period, inventory turnover, total asset turnover, and total equity to total asset. Altman Z-score is used to calculate the financial distress condition. The result shows that the highway companies for the period 2016 – 2020 are as follows: PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (AA, BB, BB, BB, C), PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (BB, AA, BB, BBB, C), and PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (BB, BB, AA, BBB, C). In addition, the Altman Z-score assessment performed in 2016-2020 shows that PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk was in the grey zone area for 2015-2018 and in the distress zone for 2019-2020. PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk was in the grey zone area for 2015-2019 and in the distress zone for 2020. PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk was in the grey zone area for 2015-2018 and in the distress zone for 2019-2020.

Keywords: financial performance, financial ratio, Altman Z-score, financial distress, highway company

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3018 Studies on Population and Management of Melon Fruit Fly Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett) in Vegetables Agro-Ecosystem in District Hyderabada

Authors: Abro Zain-Ul-Aabdin, Naheed Baloch, Khuhro Niaz Hussain, Waseem Akbar, Noor Abid Saeed

Abstract:

The Melon Fruit Fly Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coq.) belongs to family: Tephritidae order: Diptera and is distributed throughout the vegetable growing areas of Pakistan. The B. cucurbitae is injurious pest of more than 125 species of the vegetables throughout the world. In the present studies we investigated the population of this important pest in cucurbit crops and influence of abiotic parameters such as: temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. The study was carried out at two different locations of District, Hyderabad. The locations were Jeay Shah and Dehli farm where three cucurbit vegetable crops, such as bottle gourd (Lagenaria siceraria), bitter gourd (Momordica charantia) and ridge gourd (Luffa acutangula) were grown. The traps were baited with Cue-lure and deployed at three meter height in the all locations from 01.01.2015 and up to 30.06.2015. Results revealed that overall significantly higher (P < 0.05) population was recorded on L.acutangula, M.charantia and L.siceraria (130.64, 127.21, and 122.91), respectively. However, significantly higher (P < 0.05) population was observed on L. acutangula (339.4±22.59) during the 4th week of May 2015 followed by M. charantia (334.6±22.76) L. siceraria (333.2±20.13). Whereas; lowest population was recorded on L. siceraria (5.8±1.39) followed by L. acutangula and M. charantia (6.8±0.80g, 8.0±1.30) respectively during the 4th week of January. The population of B. cucurbitae was significantly correlated with the temperature while negatively correlated with relative humidity. Meanwhile in the parasitism preference experiment pupal parasitoid Dirhinus giffardii showed significantly higher (P<0.05) parasitization when the pupae of B.cucurbitae were reared on Cucumber (Cucumis sativus) (24.8±0.48) and also female were yielded from pupae reared on C.sativus under no choice experiment. Similarly higher parasitization and female were recovered when pupae were supplied C. sativus under free choice experiment. Results of the present investigation would be useful in developing a sustainable pest management strategy in the vegetable agro-ecosystem.

Keywords: Dirhinus giffardii, Bactrocera cucurbitae Cucumis sativus, diptera, free choice, parasitization

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3017 Role of Social Media in Imparting Climate Change through Diffusion of Innovation

Authors: Zahra Ali Abbasi, Syed Muhammad Saqib Saleem

Abstract:

This research explores the relationship between social media and awareness about climate change amongst the university students of Lahore, Pakistan. The aim is to understand how the people of Pakistan perceive climate change, especially on the social media. A deductive and quantitative method is applied on the research to find out the awareness of climate change in the people using social media. For this purpose, a survey method is used, to analyze the response from 167 online respondents through stratified random sampling technique. The relation between multiple variables including awareness about important climatic events like Paris agreement, GreenTube, Smog in Lahore, Floods in Pakistan and other eminent incidents of climate change and social media are calculated by analyzing social media as a source to impart information about climate change. The results show that as people get aware of climate change, they post about different national and international events/incidents of climate which reveal a significant relationship between respondents' awareness about climate change and their posting and sharing of content about climate change. Another test indicates that respondents’ post/share/comment (impart) information about climate change when there is a shift in the climate both globally and nationally. However, the significance of both these correlations has been found to be negligible. Social media being an independent platform holds greater influencing power, hence, as consumers of the environment the users hold the responsibility of producing and sharing content at a global platform about climate. However, matters of politics, economy and religion seem to have overshadowed the significance of climate.

Keywords: climate change, diffusion of innovation, environment, social media, Pakistan

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3016 The Mineral and Petroleum Sectors of Papua New Guinea: An Overview

Authors: James Wapyer, Simon A. Kawagle

Abstract:

The current downturn in the metal and oil prices has significantly affected the mineral and petroleum sectors of Papua New Guinea. The sectors have not grown substantially in the last three years compared to previous years. Resources of several projects have not been proved up as well as feasibility studies not undertaken on advanced projects. In the 2012-2015 periods, however, development licences for four projects have been granted - the Solwara-1 project in the Manus Basin, the Woodlark project, the Crater Mountains project and the Stanley gas-condensate project. There has been some progress on three advanced projects – Frieda River copper-gold porphyry, Mount Kare gold, and the Wafi-Golpu projects. The oilfields are small by world standard but have been high rates of production. The developments of liquefied natural gas projects are progressing well and the first LNG project with ExxonMobil and partners shipped its first cargo in May 2014, the second with Total and partners involving Elk-Antelope gas-condensate fields is in its development stage, and the third with Horizon Oil and partners involving gas fields in the western Papuan basin is in the planning stage. Significantly, in the years 2012-2015, the country has exported liquefied natural gas, nickel, cobalt and chromium, and has granted exploration licences for iron-sands and coal measures for the first time.

Keywords: exploration, mineral, Papua New Guinea, petroleum

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
3015 Descriptive Study of Adverse Drug Reactions in a Paediatric Hospital in Mongolia from 2015 to 2019

Authors: Khaliun Nyambayar, Nomindari Azzaya, Batkhuyag Purevjav

Abstract:

Pharmacovigilance was officially introduced in Mongolia in 2003, in accordance with the Health Minister Order 183 for the registry of adverse drug reactions (ADR), approved in 2006 and was reviewed in 2010. This study was designed to evaluate the incidence and common types of adverse drug reactions among hospitalized children, the frequency of adverse drug reaction reported by health care providers, and the follow-up processes resulting from adverse drug reactions. A retrospective study of paediatric patients who experienced an adverse drug reaction from 2015 to 2019, extracted from the “yellow” card at the State Research Center for Maternal and Child Health, (city). A total of 417 adverse drug reactions were reported with an overall incidence was 80 (21.5%). Adverse reactions resulting from the use of antibiotics (particularly gentamycin, cephalosporins, and vancomycin) were usually mild. ADR’s were reported by physicians and nurses (93.8%), pharmacists (6.25%). Although documentation of physician notification occurred for 93% of adverse drug reactions, only 29% of cases were documented in the patient's medical chart, 13% included follow-up education for individuals involved, and 10% were updated in the allergy profile of the hospital computer system. Measures to improve the detection and reporting of adverse drug reactions by all health care professionals should be improved, to enhance our understanding of the nature and impact of these reactions in children.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, pediatric, yellow card, Mongolia

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3014 Analysis and Evaluation of the Water Catch Basins of the Erosive-Mudflow Rivers of Georgia on the Example of the River Vere

Authors: Natia Gavardashvili

Abstract:

On June 13-14 of 2015, a landslide in village Akhaldaba was formed as a result of the intense rains in the water catch basin of the river Vere. As a result of the landslide movement, freshets and mudflows originated, and unfortunately, there were victims: zoo animals and birds were drawn in the flood and 12 people died due to the flooded motor road. The goal of the study is to give the analysis of the results of the field and scientific research held in 2015-2017 and to generalize them to the water catch basins of the erosive-mudflow rivers of other mountain landscapes of Georgia. By considering the field and scientific works, the main geographic, geological, climatic, hydrological and hydraulic properties of the erosive-mudflow tributaries of the water catch basin of the river Vere were evaluated and the probabilities of mudflow formation by considering relevant risk-factors were identified. The typology of the water catch basins of erosive-mudflow rivers of Georgia was identified on the example of the river Vere based on the field and scientific study, and their genesis, frequency of mudflow formation and volume of the drift material was identified. By using the empirical and theoretical dependencies, the amount of solid admixtures in the mudflow formed in the gorge of the river Jokhona, the right tributary of the river Vere was identified by considering the shape of the stones.

Keywords: water catchment basin, erosion, mudflow, typology

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3013 Women's Rights in the Constitution of Nepal: 2015

Authors: Sudir Silwal, Surendra KC

Abstract:

Nepalese legal system was derived from Hindu sacred before the democratic movement in 1990. Before this movement, Nepal had a patrimonial system. Nepal has ratified the UN Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW). Women organizations of the various political parties, different social organizations and women activists are playing the significant role to empower the women through the social awareness campaign across the country. As a result, 33% women representation in the local government has ascertained by the current constitution. The Constitution of Nepal-2015 has mentioned the rights of women as a fundamental right and it also has provisioned the National Women Commission as the constitutional body. This constitution is the model of gender friendly constitution in the world. As per this constitution, the Citizenship certificate is issued based on the lineage of the mother or father along with gender identity. The current constitution has guaranteed 33% women participation in judiciary, bureaucracy and legislation. This constitution further states that the parliament must elect a woman either as the president or the vice president. Similarly same rule is applied to elect the speaker and the deputy speaker in the parliament. In the same constitution, rights of the third gender also has guaranteed. The guiding principles of the constitution further explain that the constitution has followed the rule of positive discrimination and proportional representation of women in all elements of the state. This study shows that the state is not only focused in the representation of women in all structure of the nation but also need to emphasize the enhancement of the capability of the women to make them equal to the men.

Keywords: constitution, empowerment, representation, women's rights

Procedia PDF Downloads 478
3012 An Evaluation of the Effects of Special Safeguards in Meat upon International Trade and the Brazilian Economy

Authors: Cinthia C. Costa, Heloisa L. Burnquist, Joaquim J. M. Guilhoto

Abstract:

This study identified the impact of special agricultural safeguards (SSG) for the global market of meat and for the Brazilian economy. The tariff lines subject to SSG were selected and the period of analysis was 1995 (when the rules about the SSGs were established) to 2015 (more recent period for which there are notifications). The value of additional tariff was calculated for each of the most important tariff lines. The import volume and the price elasticities for imports were used to estimate the impacts of each additional tariff estimated on imports. Finally, the effect of Brazilian exports of meat without SSG taxes was calculated as well as its impact in the country’s economy by using an input-output matrix. The most important markets that applied SSGs were the U.S. for beef and European Union for poultry. However, the additional tariffs could be estimated in only two of the sixteen years that the U.S. applied SSGs on beef imports, suggesting that its use has been enforced when the average annual price has been higher than the trigger price level. The results indicated that the value of the bovine and poultry meat that could not be exported by Brazil due to SSGs to both markets (EU and the U.S.) was equivalent to BRL 804 million. The impact of this loss in trade was about: BRL 3.7 billion of the economy’s production value (at 2015 prices) and almost BRL 2 billion of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Keywords: beef, poultry meat, SSG tariff, input-output matrix, Brazil

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
3011 Beyond Voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility: Examining the Impact of the New Mandatory Community Development Agreement in the Mining Sector of Sierra Leone

Authors: Wusu Conteh

Abstract:

Since the 1990s, neo-liberalization has become a global agenda. The free market ushered in an unprecedented drive by Multinational Corporations (MNCs) to secure mineral rights in resource-rich countries. Several governments in the Global South implemented a liberalized mining policy with support from the International Financial Institutions (IFIs). MNCs have maintained that voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has engendered socio-economic development in mining-affected communities. However, most resource-rich countries are struggling to transform the resources into sustainable socio-economic development. They are trapped in what has been widely described as the ‘resource curse.’ In an attempt to address this resource conundrum, the African Mining Vision (AMV) of 2009 developed a model on resource governance. The advent of the AMV has engendered the introduction of mandatory community development agreement (CDA) into the legal framework of many countries in Africa. In 2009, Sierra Leone enacted the Mines and Minerals Act that obligates mining companies to invest in Primary Host Communities. The study employs interviews and field observation techniques to explicate the dynamics of the CDA program. A total of 25 respondents -government officials, NGOs/CSOs and community stakeholders were interviewed. The study focuses on a case study of the Sierra Rutile CDA program in Sierra Leone. Extant scholarly works have extensively explored the resource curse and voluntary CSR. There are limited studies to uncover the mandatory CDA and its impact on socio-economic development in mining-affected communities. Thus, the purpose of this study is to explicate the impact of the CDA in Sierra Leone. Using the theory of change helps to understand how the availability of mandatory funds can empower communities to take an active part in decision making related to the development of the communities. The results show that the CDA has engendered a predictable fund for community development. It has also empowered ordinary members of the community to determine the development program. However, the CDA has created a new ground for contestations between the pre-existing local governance structure (traditional authority) and the newly created community development committee (CDC) that is headed by an ordinary member of the community.

Keywords: community development agreement, impact, mandatory, participation

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3010 Grand Paris Residential Real Estate as an Effective Hedge against Inflation

Authors: Yasmine Essafi Zouari, Aya Nasreddine

Abstract:

Following a long inflationary period from the post-war era to the mid-1980s (+10.1% annually), France went through a moderate inflation period between 1986 and 2001 (+2.1% annually) and even lower inflation between 2002 and 2016 (+1.4% annually). In 2022, inflation in France increased rapidly and reached 4.5% over one year in March, according to INSEE estimates. Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. Considering a mixed-asset portfolio composed of housing assets (residential real estate in 150 Grand Paris communes) as well as financial assets, and using both correlation and regression analysis, results confirm the attribute of the direct housing investment as an inflation hedge especially particularly against its unexpected component. Further, cash and bonds were found to provide respectively a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant positive hedge against expected inflation.

Keywords: direct housing, inflation, hedging ability, optimal portfolio, Grand Paris metropolis

Procedia PDF Downloads 84