Search results for: squared prediction risk

Authors: Yogita Tulsian, R. S. Gupta, K. F. Laserson

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Background: Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of TB facilitates disease transmission in the community, so we conducted a study to evaluate the burden of and risk factors for delay in TB diagnosis and initiation of TB treatment among patients in the private and public sectors in Udaipur district, Rajasthan, India. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 100 new sputum-positive TB. Patients were interviewed in the intensive phase of treatment September 2013-November 2013 Long total diagnosis delay (TDD) was defined as a time interval between first symptom to confirmed diagnosis > 30 days. Long health treatment delay (HTD) was defined as a time interval between confirmed diagnosis to treatment initiation > 7 days. Results: We observed a median TDD of 55 days (range: 7-136 days) in the public sector and of 92 days (11-380 days) in the private sector. Long TDD in the private sector was significantly associated with middle-higher socio-economic status (Risk Ratio (RR): 2;95% CI: 1.3-3). The reasons reported from the private sector for long TDD were suspect TB patients not advised for sputum examination (RR: 42; 95% CI:2.6-660), practise of self-medication (RR: 17.4; 95% CI: 1.1-267), or lack of awareness (RR: 9.7;95% CI: 0.6-145). The median HTD in the public sector was 3 days (range: 0-14 days), and in the private sector, 2 days (range: 0-11 days) (non-significant difference). Conclusions: Long TDD in private sector may be improved through sputum referral for all suspect TB cases and better education to all regarding TB.

Keywords: diagnosis delay, treatment delay, privatesector, public sector

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Authors: Iin Mayasari

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This study aims at exploring the influence of aspects of entrepreneurial marketing on a firm’s performance. Entrepreneurs are not only supported by resources control to obtain sustainable competitive advantage, but it should also be supported by intangible resources. Entrepreneurial marketing provides the opportunity for entrepreneurs to proactively find better ways to create value for desired customers, to create innovation, and to build customer equity. Entrepreneurial marketing has the medium between entrepreneurship and marketing, and serves as an umbrella for many of the emergent perspectives on marketing. It has eight underlying dimensions. They are proactiveness, calculated risk-taking, innovativeness, an opportunity focus, entrepreneurial orientation, resource leveraging, customer intensity, and value creating. The research method of the study was a qualitative study by having an interview with 8 small companies in Kudus Region, the Central Java, Indonesia. The interviewees were the owner and the manager of the company that had the scope work of small business enterprise in wood crafting industry. The interview was related to the implementation of the elements of the entrepreneurial marketing. The result showed that the small business enterprises had implemented the elements of entrepreneurial marketing in supporting their daily activities. The understanding based on the theoretical implementation was well executed by the owner and managers. The problems in managing small business enterprises were related to the full support by the government and the branding management. Furthermore, the innovation process should be improved especially the use of internet to promote the product, to expand the market and to increase the firm’s performance.

Keywords: entrepreneurial marketing, innovativeness, risk taking, opportunity focus

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Authors: Magdalena Escamilla Quintal, Thelma Cetina Canto, Cecilia Aguilar Ortega

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Due to the importance that people represent for companies, the setting of a clear control of the risks that threaten the health and the material and financial resources of workers is essential. It is irrelevant if the company is a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) or a large multinational, or if it is in the construction or service sector. The risk prevention importance is related to a constitutional and human right that all people have; working in a risk-free environment to prevent accidents or illnesses that may influence their quality of life and the tranquility of their family. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the level of psychosocial risks (physical and emotional) of the employees of an SME. The participants of this study were 186 employees of a productive sector SME; 151 men and 35 women, all with an average age of 31.77 years. Their seniority inside the SME was between one month and 19.91 years. Ninety-six workers were from the production area, 28 from the management area, as well as 25 from the sales area and 40 from the supplies area. Ninety-three workers were found in Uman, 78 in Playa del Carmen, 11 in Cancun and seven in Cd. del Carmen. We found a statistically significant relationship between the burnout variable and the engagement and psychosomatic complaints as well as between the variables of sex, burnout and psychosomatic complaints. We can conclude that, for benefit of the SME, that there are low levels of burnout and psychosomatic complaints, the women experience major levels of burnout and the men show major levels of psychosomatic complaints. The findings, contributions, limitations and future proposals will be analyzed.

Keywords: psychosocial risks, SME, burnout, engagement, psychosomatic complaints

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Authors: Vikram Munjal, Harpreet Munjal

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A few years ago we could hardly think of Libraries' strategic plan that includes the bold and amazing prediction of a mostly digital environment for a library system. However, sheer hard work by the engineers, academicians, and librarians made it feasible. However, it requires huge expenditure and now a day‘s spending for electronic resources (e-resources) have been growing much more rapidly than have the materials budgets of which such resources are usually a part. And many libraries are spending a huge amount on e-resources. Libraries today are in the midst of a profound shift toward reliance on e-resources, and this reliance seems to have deepened in recent years as libraries have shed paper journal subscriptions to help pay for online access. This has been exercised only to cater user behavior and attitudes that seem to be changing even more quickly in this dynamic scenario.

Keywords: radio frequency identification, management, scanning, barcodes, checkout and tags

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Authors: Randa Ismail Sharafeddine

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The Islamic economic system is distinctive in that it implicitly recognizes money as a separate, independent component of production capable of assuming risk and so entitled to the same reward as other Entrepreneurial Factors of Production (EFP). Conventional theory does not identify money capital explicitly as a component of production; rather, interest is recognized as a reward for capital, the interest rate is the cost of money capital, and it is also seen as a cost of physical capital. The conventional theory of production examines how diverse non-entrepreneurial resources (Land, Labor, and Capital) are selected; however, the economic theory community is largely unaware of the reasons why these resources choose to remain as non-entrepreneurial resources as opposed to becoming entrepreneurial resources. Should land, labor, and financial asset owners choose to work for others in return for rent, income, or interest, or should they engage in entrepreneurial risk-taking in order to profit. This is a decision made often in the actual world, but it has never been effectively treated in economic theory. This article will conduct a critical analysis of the conventional classification of factors of production and propose a classification for resource allocation and income distribution (Rent, Wages, Interest, and Profits) that is more rational, even within the conventional theoretical framework for evaluating and developing production and distribution theories. Money is an essential component of production in an Islamic economy, and it must be used to sustain economic activity.

Keywords: financial capital, production theory, distribution theory, economic activity, riba avoidance, institution of participation

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Authors: S. Behnam Asl, H. Sadeghi Naeini, L. Sadat Ensaniat, R. Khorshidian, S. Alipour, S. Behnam Asl

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Nowadays, the construction industry is growing, especially among developing countries. Iran also has a critical role in these industries in terms of workers disorders. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) account for 7% of the whole diseases in the society, which makes some limitations. One of the main factors which causes WMSDs is awkward posture. Steel bar bending is considered as one of the prominent performance among construction workers. In this case study, we aimed to find the major tasks of bar benders and the most important risk factors related to it. This study was carried out among twenty workers (18-45 years) as our volunteer samples in some construction sites with less than 6 floors in two regions of Tehran municipality. The data was gathered through in depth observation, interview and questionnaire. Also postural analysis was done by OWAS method. In another part of study we used NMQ for gathering some data about psychosocial effects of work related disorders. Our findings show that 64% of workers were not aware of work risks, about 59% of workers had troubles in their wrists, hands, especially workers who worked in steel bar bending. In 46% cases lower back pain was in prevalence. Considering gathered data and results, awkward postures and long term tasks and their duration are known as the main risk factors of WMSDs among construction workers, meaning that work-rest schedule and tools design should be reconsidered to make an ergonomic condition for the mentioned workers.

Keywords: bar benders, construction workers, musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), OWAS method

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Authors: Jefrey Pilusa, Tumisang Seodigeng

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This research discusses a South African case study for the potential of utilizing refuse-derived fuel (RDF) obtained from non-burn treatment of health care risk waste (HCRW) as potential feedstock for green energy production. This specific waste stream can be destroyed via non-burn treatment technology involving high-speed mechanical shredding followed by steam or chemical injection to disinfect the final product. The RDF obtained from this process is characterised by a low moisture, low ash, and high calorific value which means it can be potentially used as high-value solid fuel. Due to the raw feed of this RDF being classified as hazardous, the final RDF has been reported to be non-infectious and can blend with other combustible wastes such as rubber and plastic for waste to energy applications. This study evaluated non-burn treatment technology as a possible solution for on-site destruction of HCRW in South African private and public health care centres. Waste generation quantities were estimated based on the number of registered patient beds, theoretical bed occupancy. Time and motion study was conducted to evaluate the logistics viability of on-site treatment. Non-burn treatment technology for HCRW is a promising option for South Africa, and successful implementation of this method depends upon the initial capital investment, operational cost and environmental permitting of such technology; there are other influencing factors such as the size of the waste stream, product off-take price as well as product demand.

Keywords: autoclave, disposal, fuel, incineration, medical waste

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Authors: Veronika Sharok

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Research relevance on psychological determinants of risky behaviors is caused by high prevalence of such behaviors, particularly among youth. Risky sexual behavior, including unprotected and casual sex, frequent change of sexual partners, drug and alcohol use lead to negative social consequences and contribute to the spread of HIV infection and other sexually transmitted diseases. Data were obtained from 302 respondents aged 15-35 which were divided into 3 empirical groups: persons prone to risky sexual behavior, drug users and alcohol users; and 3 control groups: the individuals who are not prone to risky sexual behavior, persons who do not use drugs and the respondents who do not use alcohol. For processing, we used the following methods: Qualitative method for nominative data (Chi-squared test) and quantitative methods for metric data (student's t-test, Fisher's F-test, Pearson's r correlation test). Statistical processing was performed using Statistica 6.0 software. The study identifies two groups of factors that prevent risky behaviors. Internal factors, which include the moral and value attitudes; significance of existential values: love, life, self-actualization and search for the meaning of life; understanding independence as a responsibility for the freedom and ability to get attached to someone or something up to a point when this relationship starts restricting the freedom and becomes vital; awareness of risky behaviors as dangerous for the person and for others; self-acknowledgement. External factors (prevent risky behaviors in case of absence of the internal ones): absence of risky behaviors among friends and relatives; socio-demographic characteristics (middle class, marital status); awareness about the negative consequences of risky behaviors; inaccessibility to psychoactive substances. These factors are common for proneness to each type of risky behavior, because it usually caused by the same reasons. It should be noted that if prevention of risky behavior is based only on elimination of external factors, it is not as effective as it may be if we pay more attention to internal factors. The results obtained in the study can be used to develop training programs and activities for prevention of risky behaviors, for using values preventing such behaviors and promoting healthy lifestyle.

Keywords: existential values, prevention, psychological features, risky behavior

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Authors: B.S. Roopa

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Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of concomitant use of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs and GPDs in recommended dose and frequency as prophylaxis. And also to know the association between risk factors and prescription of GPDs in patients treated with NSAIDs. Methods: Study was a prospective, observational, cross-sectional survey. Data from patients with prescription of NSAIDs at the out-patient departments of secondary care Hospital, Nilgiris, India were collected in a specially designed proforma for a period of 45 days. Analysis using χ2 tests for discrete variables. Factors that might be associated with prescription of GPD with NSIADs were assessed in multiple logistic regression models. Results: Three hundred and three patients were included in this study, and the rate of GPD prescription was 89.1%. Most of the patients received H2-receptor antagonist, and, to a lesser degree, antacid and proton pump inhibitor. Patients with history of GI ulcer/bleeding were much more likely to be co-prescribed GPD than those who had no history of GI disorders .Compared with patients who were managed in general outpatient clinic, those managed in Secondary care hospital in Nilgrisis, India were more likely to receive GPD. Conclusions: The prescription rate of GPD with NSAIDs is high. Patients were prescribed with H2RA with dose of 150mg twice daily, which are not effective in reducing the risk of NSAIDs induced gastric ulcer. Only the frequency of NSAIDs prescription was considered significant determinant for the co-prescription with GPAs in patients who are < 65 years and ≥ 65 years old.

Keywords: gastro protective agents, non steridol anti inlfammatory agents

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Authors: Abbas Sedighinejad, Hossein Khoshrang, Mohammad Haghighi, Ali Ashraf, Mostafa Saeedinia, Gelareh Biazar, Zahra Atrkarroushan, Mahdi Ajdadi

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as an alarming attack broke out in China and spread rapidly worldwide. Objectives: Based on a theory indicating the correlation between some viral diseases and blood types, we investigated the relationship between blood groups and coronavirus infection risk in Guilan Province, Iran. Methods: Retrospectively, all the files of the admitted patients with suspected COVID-19, in peak conditions of the disease between March 1 and May 30, 2020, were reviewed using the Census method. The required data, including epidemiological and clinical information and outcomes, were obtained from electronic records. Results: A total of 249 cases were analyzed, of whom 109 were collected from governmental centers, and the rest were collected from private hospitals. The most common co-morbidity was diabetes with 71 (37.6%) cases and the main symptom at the admission time was dyspnea with 170 (24.5%) cases. Of the total patients, 155 (62.2%) were discharged, and the rest died. The most common blood group among our patients was O Rh-positive with 91 (36.5%) cases. No meaningful correlation was found between outcomes and blood groups in terms of ABO types (P = 0.89) or Rh factor (P = 0.456). The Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the general population (P = 0.038). Conclusions: We found that the Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the healthy individuals. However, no correlation was observed between the groups regarding ABO typing.

Keywords: ABO blood group, COVID 19, association, personal protection

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Authors: Khalil Aryanfar, Shahrzad Sanjari, Pariya Gholipor, Elmira Hafez

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The present study aimed to investigate and compare the characteristics of entrepreneurship among students in senior secondary schools in the academic year 2008-2009 in Tabriz city. Research employed survey method respectively. The study population consisted of all students in the senior branch of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational (1033 patients) were included. Sample size of 493 was calculated according to Morgan table. Sampling method was random cluster and stratified sampling. Data collected by researcher made questionnaire based on the theory of MC clleland (1963) and Brvkhavs (1980). These tools would indicators be for achievement, Independence, disposition, creativity, risk-taking, self-control, tolerance for ambiguity, team work approach in the future. To determine the psychometric properties of the questionnaire, content validity of the survey was approved by relevant experts. In addition, to estimate the internal consistency of Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated for 84% of total inventory. Collected data Using mean, standard deviation and were analyzed by ANOVA. The results showed that there is a significant difference between students' entrepreneurial potential fields of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational level (0/01).

Keywords: entrepreneurship, achievement motivation, risk taking, creativity, self-control, independence, tolerance of ambiguity, foresight

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Authors: masmoudi Jabri Khaoula, Zitouni Hana, Bousselmi Latifa, Akrout Hanen

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Mathematical modeling has become an essential tool for sustainable wastewater management, particularly for the simulation and the optimization of complex processes involved in activated sludge systems. In this context, the activated sludge model (ASM3h) was used for the simulation of a Biological Membrane Reactor (MBR) as it includes the integration of biological wastewater treatment and physical separation by membrane filtration. In this study, the MBR with a useful volume of 12.5 L was fed continuously with poultry slaughterhouse wastewater (PSWW) for 50 days at a feed rate of 2 L/h and for a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 6.25h. Throughout its operation, High removal efficiency was observed for the removal of organic pollutants in terms of COD with 84% of efficiency. Moreover, the MBR has generated a treated effluent which fits with the limits of discharge into the public sewer according to the Tunisian standards which were set in March 2018. In fact, for the nitrogenous compounds, average concentrations of nitrate and nitrite in the permeat reached 0.26±0.3 mg. L-1 and 2.2±2.53 mg. L-1, respectively. The simulation of the MBR process was performed using SIMBA software v 5.0. The state variables employed in the steady state calibration of the ASM3h were determined using physical and respirometric methods. The model calibration was performed using experimental data obtained during the first 20 days of the MBR operation. Afterwards, kinetic parameters of the model were adjusted and the simulated values of COD, N-NH4+and N- NOx were compared with those reported from the experiment. A good prediction was observed for the COD, N-NH4+and N- NOx concentrations with 467 g COD/m³, 110.2 g N/m³, 3.2 g N/m³ compared to the experimental data which were 436.4 g COD/m³, 114.7 g N/m³ and 3 g N/m³, respectively. For the validation of the model under dynamic simulation, the results of the experiments obtained during the second treatment phase of 30 days were used. It was demonstrated that the model simulated the conditions accurately by yielding a similar pattern on the variation of the COD concentration. On the other hand, an underestimation of the N-NH4+ concentration was observed during the simulation compared to the experimental results and the measured N-NO3 concentrations were lower than the predicted ones, this difference could be explained by the fact that the ASM models were mainly designed for the simulation of biological processes in the activated sludge systems. In addition, more treatment time could be required by the autotrophic bacteria to achieve a complete and stable nitrification. Overall, this study demonstrated the effectiveness of mathematical modeling in the prediction of the performance of the MBR systems with respect to organic pollution, the model can be further improved for the simulation of nutrients removal for a longer treatment period.

Keywords: activated sludge model (ASM3h), membrane bioreactor (MBR), poultry slaughter wastewater (PSWW), reuse

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, David Tolin, Lital Ruderman, Ariel Kirshenbaum, J. MacLaren Kelly, Christopher Pittenger, Ifat Levy

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Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) produces profound morbidity. Difficulties with decision making and intolerance of uncertainty are prominent clinical features of OCD. The nature and etiology of these deficits are poorly understood. We used a well-validated choice task, grounded in behavioral economic theory, to investigate differences in valuation and value-based choice during decision making under uncertainty in 20 unmedicated participants with OCD and 20 matched healthy controls. Participants’ choices were used to assess individual decision-making characteristics. Compared to controls, individuals with OCD were less consistent in their choices and less able to identify options that were unambiguously preferable. These differences correlated with symptom severity. OCD participants did not differ from controls in how they valued uncertain options when outcome probabilities were known (risk) but were more likely than controls to avoid uncertain options when these probabilities were imprecisely specified (ambiguity). These results suggest that the underlying neural mechanisms of valuation and value-based choices during decision-making are abnormal in OCD. Individuals with OCD show elevated intolerance of uncertainty, but only when outcome probabilities are themselves uncertain. Future research focused on the neural valuation network, which is implicated in value-based computations, may provide new neurocognitive insights into the pathophysiology of OCD. Deficits in decision-making processes may represent a target for therapeutic intervention.

Keywords: obsessive compulsive disorder, decision-making, uncertainty intolerance, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, valuation

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Authors: Majid Rezayi, Sh. Shahaboddin, HNM E. Mahmud, A. Yadollah, A. Saeid, A. Yatimah

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In this study, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to obtain the membrane composition model affecting the potential response of our reported polymeric PVC sensor for determining the titanium (III) ions. The performance statistics of the artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models for potential slope prediction of membrane composition of titanium (III) ion selective electrode were compared with ANFIS technique. The results show that the ANFIS model can be used as a practical tool for obtaining the Nerntian slope of the proposed sensor in this study.

Keywords: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference, PVC sensor, titanium (III) ions, Nerntian slope

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Authors: Mike T. Wei, Douglas N. Mintz, Lisa A. Mandl, Arielle W. Fein, Jayme C. Burket, Yuo-Yu Lee, Wei-Ti Huang, Vivian P. Bykerk, Mark P. Figgie, Edward F. Di Carlo, Bruce N. Cronstein, Susan M. Goodman

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Background/Purpose: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have excellent total hip arthroplasty (THA) survival, and methotrexate (MTX), an anti-inflammatory disease modifying drug which may affect bone reabsorption, may play a role. The purpose of this study is to determine the diagnosis leading to revision THA (rTHA) in RA patients and to assess the association of radiographic lucency with MTX use. Methods: All patients with validated diagnosis of RA in the institution’s THA registry undergoing rTHA from May 2007 - February 2011 were eligible. Diagnosis leading to rTHA and medication use was determined by chart review. Osteolysis was evaluated on available radiographs by measuring maximum lucency in each Gruen zone. Differences within RA patients with/without MTX in osteolysis, demographics, and medications were assessed with chi-squared, Fisher's exact tests or Mann-Whitney U tests as appropriate. The error rate for multiple comparisons of lucency in the different Gruen zones was corrected via false discovery rate methods. A secondary analysis was performed to determine differences in diagnoses leading to revision between RA and matched OA controls (2:1 match by sex age +/- 5 years). OA exclusion criteria included presence of rheumatic diseases, use of MTX, and lack of records. Results: 51 RA rTHA were identified and compared with 103 OA. Mean age for RA was 57.7 v 59.4 years for OA (p = 0.240). 82.4% RA were female v 83.5% OA (p = 0.859). RA had lower BMI than OA (25.5 v 28.2; p = 0.166). There was no difference in diagnosis leading to rTHA, including infection (RA 3.9 v OA 6.8%; p = 0.719) or dislocation (RA 23.5 v OA 23.3%; p = 0.975). There was no significant difference in the length of time the implant was in before revision: RA 11.0 v OA 8.8 years (p = 0.060). Among RA with/without MTX, there was no difference in use of biologics (30.0 v 43.3%, p = 0.283), steroids (47.6 v 50.0%, p = 0.867) or bisphosphonates (23.8 v 33.3%, p = 0.543). There was no difference in rTHA diagnosis with/without MTX, including loosening (52.4 v 56.7%, p = 0.762). There was no significant difference in lucencies with MTX use in any Gruen zone. Patients with MTX had femoral stem subsidence of 3.7mm v no subsidence without MTX (p = 0.006). Conclusion: There was no difference in the diagnosis leading to rTHR in RA and OA, although RA trended longer prior to rTHA. In this small retrospective study, there were no significant differences associated with MTX exposure or radiographic lucency among RA patients. The significance of subsidence is not clear. Further study of arthroplasty survival in RA patients is warranted.

Keywords: hip arthroplasty, methotrexate, revision arthroplasty, rheumatoid arthritis

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding

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Authors: Darynne Madison Dela Gente, Panayiota Courelli

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Similarities in behavior between perpetrators of school violence and those with a parent in prison raise concern when considering the root causes of a student’s violent behavior. Dealing with parental incarceration is highly consequential on a student’s emotional well-being and may cause aggressive behavior that can lead to them becoming a perpetrator of school violence. These students are more likely to have interpersonal issues, antisocial tendencies, and a hostile demeanor, which are factors that closely align with indicators of an offender of violence. Developmental risk factors of parental incarceration are heavily understudied and often overlooked. This literature review aims to analyze the correlation between having a parent in prison and exhibiting physical or verbal aggression in a school environment. Furthermore, it strives to bring awareness to the inconsistencies in existing research and encourage a greater depth of study of the behavioral impacts, specifically in an academic setting. Furthermore, it will elaborate on the effectiveness of current intervention programs, such as Project Avary, Hope House, Kids Mates Inc., and Girl Scouts Beyond Bars, which provide immense support, as well as proposed methods of implementation in a school environment. Creating a space for these students to cope ultimately aids in the prevention of violent behaviors and intergenerational incarceration. Access to intervention programs, especially in schools located in areas with high rates of incarceration, would greatly reduce the risk of these students becoming perpetrators of school violence.

Keywords: adolescent behavior, adolescent mental health, parental incarceration, school violence prevention

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Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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Authors: Mojtaba Zabihi, Stephen Munro, Jonathan Little, Ri Li, Joshua Brinkerhoff, Sina Kheirkhah

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Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identified dental workers at the highest risk of contracting COVID-19. This is because aerosol-generating procedures (AGP) during dental practices generate aerosols ( < 5µm) and droplets. These particles travel at varying speeds, in varying directions, and for varying durations. If these particles bear infectious viruses, their spreading causes airborne transmission of the virus in the dental room, exposing dentists, hygienists, dental assistants, and even other dental clinic clients to the infection risk. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of two-phase flows based on a discrete phase model (DPM) is carried out to study the spreading of aerosol and droplets in a dental room. The simulation includes momentum, heat, and mass transfers between the particles and the airflow. Two simulations are conducted and compared. One simulation focuses on the effects of room ventilation in winter and summer on the particles' travel. The other simulation focuses on the control of aerosol and droplets' spreading. A suction collector is added near the source of aerosol and droplets, creating a flow sink in order to remove the particles. The effects of the suction flow on the aerosol and droplet travel are studied. The suction flow can remove aerosols and also reduce the spreading of droplets.

Keywords: aerosols, computational fluid dynamics, COVID-19, dental, discrete phase model, droplets, two-phase flow

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

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Authors: Lely A. Luengas, Pedro R. Vizcaya, Giovanni Sánchez

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In this paper, a methodology is presented to obtain the Static Alignment Model for any transtibial amputee person. The proposed methodology starts from experimental data collected on the Hospital Militar Central, Bogotá, Colombia. The effects of transtibial prosthesis malalignment on amputees were measured in terms of joint angles, center of pressure (COP) and weight distribution. Some statistical tools are used to obtain the model parameters. Mathematical predictive models of prosthetic alignment were created. The proposed models are validated in amputees and finding promising results for the prosthesis Static Alignment. Static alignment process is unique to each subject; nevertheless the proposed methodology can be used in each transtibial amputee.

Keywords: information theory, prediction model, prosthetic alignment, transtibial prosthesis

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Authors: Lihua Zhu, Jianfeng Du, Yu Wang, Zhiqiang Wu

Abstract:

Collision avoidance problems of a swarm of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) flying in an obstacle-laden environment are investigated in this paper. Given that the UAV swarm needs to adapt to the obstacle distribution in dynamic operation, a priority configuration is designed to guide the UAVs to pass through the obstacles in turn. Based on the collision cone approach and the prediction of the collision time, a collision evaluation model is established to judge the urgency of the imminent collision of each UAV, and the evaluation result is used to assign the priority of each UAV to further instruct them going through the obstacles in descending order. At last, the simulation results provide the promising validation in terms of the efficiency and scalability of the proposed approach.

Keywords: UAV swarm, collision avoidance, complex environment, online priority design

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Authors: V. Mathad, S. Shivprasad, P. Shivsharannappa, M. K. Patil

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Introduction: Non-communicable diseases are emerging diseases in India. Government of India launched National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Cancer and Stroke (NPCDCS) during the year 2008. The aim of the programme was to reduce the burden of non communicable diseases by health promotion and prompt treatment. Objective: The present study was intended to assess the impact of National Program for prevention and control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes, Cancer and Stroke Programme on biochemical and physiological factors influencing Type 2 diabetes in Kalaburagi District. Material and Method: NCD Clinic was established at District Hospital during April 2016. All the patients attending District Hospital Kalaburagi above the age of 30 years are screened for Non Communicable Diseases under NPCDCS Programme. A total sample of 7447 patients attending NCD Clinic situated at Kalaburagi district was assessed in this study. Pre structured and pretested schedule seeking information was obtained from all the patients by the counselor working under NPCDCS programme. All the Patients attending District Hospital were screened for Diabetes using Glucometer at NCD clinic. The suspected cases were further confirmed through Biochemical investigations like Fasting Blood glucose, HBA1c, Urine Glucose, Kidney Function test. SPSS 20 version was used for analysis of data. Chi square test, P values and odds ratio was used to study the association of factors. Results: A Total of 7447 patients attended NCD clinic during the year 2017-18 were analyzed, Diabetes was seen among 3028 individuals were as comorbidities along with Hypertension was seen among 757 individuals. The mean age of the population was 50 ± 2.84. 3440(46.2%) were males whereas Female constituted 4007(53.8%) of population. The incidence and prevalence of Diabetes being 8.6 and 12.8 respectively. Diabetes was more commonly seen during the age group of 40 to 69 years. Diabetes was significantly associated with Age group 40 to 69 years, obesity and female gender (p < 0.05). The risk of developing Hypertension and comorbidity conditions of hypertension and Diabetes was 1.224 and 1.305 times higher among males, whereas the risk of diabetes was 1.127 higher among females as compared to males. Conclusion: The screening for NCD has significantly increased after launching of NPCDCS programme. NCD was significantly associated with obesity, female gender, increased age as well as comorbid conditions like hypertension and tuberculosis.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, NPCDCS programme, type 2 Diabetes, physiological factors

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Authors: Hari Mohan Kushwaha, Santosh Kumar Sahu

Abstract:

In the present study, analysis of heat transfer is carried out in the slip flow region for the fluid flowing between two parallel plates by employing the asymmetric heat fluxes at surface of the plates. The flow is assumed to be hydrodynamically and thermally fully developed for the analysis. The second order velocity slip and viscous dissipation effects are considered for the analysis. Closed form expressions are obtained for the Nusselt number as a function of Knudsen number and modified Brinkman number. The limiting condition of the present prediction for Kn = 0, Kn2 = 0, and Brq1 = 0 is considered and found to agree well with other analytical results.

Keywords: Knudsen number, modified Brinkman number, slip flow, velocity slip

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Authors: Christopher Deekia Nwimae, Nigel Simms, Liyun Lao

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Erosion in pipe bends caused by particles is a major obstacle in the oil and gas fields and might cause the breakdown of production equipment. This work studied the effects imposed by flow velocity and impact of solid particles diameter in an elbow; erosion rate was verified with experimental data using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. Two-way coupled Euler-Lagrange and discrete phase model was employed to calculate the air/solid particle flow in an elbow. One erosion model and three-particle rebound models were used to predict the erosion rate on the 90° elbows. The generic erosion model was used in the CFD-based erosion model, and after comparing it with experimental data, results showed agreement with the CFD-based predictions as observed.

Keywords: erosion, prediction, elbow, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Wilson Handoko, Farshid Pahlevani, Isha Singla, Himanish Kumar, Veena Sahajwalla

Abstract:

Aluminium bronze alloys are well known for their superior abrasion, tensile strength and non-magnetic properties, due to the co-presence of iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) as alloying elements and have been commonly used in many industrial applications. However, continuous exposure to the marine environment will accelerate the risk of a tendency to Al bronze alloys parts failures. Although a higher level of corrosion resistance properties can be achieved by modifying its elemental composition, it will come at a price through the complex manufacturing process and increases the risk of reducing the ductility of Al bronze alloy. In this research, the use of ironmaking slag and waste plastic as the input source for surface modification of Al bronze alloy was implemented. Microstructural analysis conducted using polarised light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that is equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). An electrochemical corrosion test was carried out through Tafel polarisation method and calculation of protection efficiency against the base-material was determined. Results have indicated that uniform modified surface which is as the result of selective diffusion process, has enhanced corrosion resistance properties up to 12.67%. This approach has opened a new opportunity to access various industrial utilisations in commercial scale through minimising the dependency on natural resources by transforming waste sources into the protective coating in environmentally friendly and cost-effective ways.

Keywords: aluminium bronze, waste-based surface modification, tafel polarisation, corrosion resistance

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah

Abstract:

This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity. The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, artificial neural networks, back propagation learning, hourly load demand

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