Search results for: mortality effect
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15517

Search results for: mortality effect

15277 Management of Third Stage Labour in a Rural Ugandan Hospital

Authors: Brid Dinnee, Jessica Taylor, Joseph Hartland, Michael Natarajan

Abstract:

Background:The third stage of labour (TSL) can be complicated by Post-Partum Haemorrhage (PPH), which can have a significant impact on maternal mortality and morbidity. In Africa, 33.9% of maternal deaths are attributable to PPH1. In order to minimise this figure, current recommendations for the developing world are that all women have active management of the third stage of labour (AMTSL). The aim of this project was to examine TSL practice in a rural Ugandan Hospital, highlight any deviation from best practice and identify barriers to change in resource limited settings as part of a 4th year medical student External Student Selected Component field trip. Method: Five key elements from the current World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines on AMTSL were used to develop an audit tool. All daytime vaginal deliveries over a two week period in July 2016 were audited. In addition to this, a retrospective comparison of PPH rates, between 2006 (when ubiquitous use of intramuscular oxytocin for management of TSL was introduced) and 2015 was performed. Results: Eight vaginal deliveries were observed; at all of which intramuscular oxytocin was administered and controlled cord traction used. Against WHO recommendation, all umbilical cords were clamped within one minute, and no infants received early skin-to-skin contact. In only one case was uterine massage performed after placental delivery. A retrospective comparison of data rates identified a 40% reduction in total number of PPHs from November 2006 to November 2015. Maternal deaths per delivery reduced from 2% to 0.5%. Discussion: Maternal mortality and PPH are still major issues in developing countries. Maternal mortality due to PPH can be reduced by good practices regarding TSL, but not all of these are used in low-resource settings. There is a notable difference in outcomes between the developed and developing world. At Kitovu Hospital, there has been a reduction in maternal mortality and number of PPHs following introduction of IM Oxytocin administration. In order to further improve these rates, staff education and further government funding is key.

Keywords: post-partum haemorrhage, PPH, third stage labour, Uganda

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15276 A Study on the Effects of Urban Density, Sociodemographic Vulnerability, and Medical Service on the Impact of COVID-19

Authors: Jang-hyun Oh, Kyoung-ho Choi, Jea-sun Lee

Abstract:

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic brought reconsiderations and doubts about urban density as compact cities became epidemic hot spots. Density, though, provides an upside in that medical services required to protect citizens against the spread of disease are concentrated within compact cities, which helps reduce the mortality rate. Sociodemographic characteristics are also a crucial factor in determining the vulnerability of the population, and the purpose of this study is to empirically discover how these three urban factors affect the severity of the epidemic impacts. The study aimed to investigate the influential relationships between urban factors and epidemic impacts and provide answers to whether superb medical service in compact cities can scale down the impacts of COVID-19. SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) was applied as a suitable research method for verifying interrelationships between factors based on theoretical grounds. The study accounted for 144 municipalities in South Korea during periods from the first emergence of COVID-19 to December 31st, 2022. The study collected data related to infection and mortality cases from each municipality, and it holds significance as primary research that enlightens the aspects of epidemic impact concerning urban settings and investigates for the first time the mediated effects of medical service. The result of the evaluation shows that compact cities are most likely to have lower sociodemographic vulnerability and better quality of medical service, while cities with low density contain a higher portion of vulnerable populations and poorer medical services. However, the quality of medical service had no significant influence in reducing neither the infection rate nor the mortality rate. Instead, density acted as the major influencing factor in the infection rate, while sociodemographic vulnerability was the major determinant of the mortality rate. Thus, the findings strongly paraphrase that compact cities, although with high infection rates, tend to have lower mortality rates due to less vulnerability in sociodemographics, Whereas death was more frequent in less dense cities due to higher portions of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and low-income classes. Findings suggest an important lesson for post-pandemic urban planning-intrinsic characteristics of urban settings, such as density and population, must be taken into account to effectively counteract future epidemics and minimize the severity of their impacts. Moreover, the study is expected to contribute as a primary reference material for follow-up studies that further investigate related subjects, including urban medical services during the pandemic.

Keywords: urban planning, sociodemographic vulnerability, medical service, COVID-19, pandemic

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15275 Evaluation of Associated Risk Factors and Determinants of near Miss Obstetric Cases at B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences, Dharan

Authors: Madan Khadka, Dhruba Uprety, Rubina Rai

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Background and objective: In 2011, around 273,465 women died worldwide during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days after childbirth. Near-miss is recognized as the predictor of the level of care and maternal death. The objective of the study was to evaluate the associated risk factors of near-miss obstetric cases and maternal death. Material and Methods A Prospective Observational Study was done from August 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at BPKIHS hospital, tertiary care hospital in Eastern Nepal, Dharan. Case eligible by the 5-factor scoring system and WHO near miss criteria were evaluated. Risk factors included severe hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and a complication of abortion, ruptured uterus, medical/surgical condition and sepsis. Results: A total of 9,727 delivery were attended during the study period from August 2014 to June 2014. There were 6307 (71.5%) vaginal delivery and 2777(28.5%) caesarean section and 181 perinatal death with a total of 9,546 live birth. A total of 162 near miss was identified, and 16 maternal death occurred during the study. Maternal near miss rate of 16.6 per 1000 live birth, Women with life-threatening conditions (WLTC) of 172, Severe maternal outcome ratio of 18.64 per 1000 live birth, Maternal near-miss mortality ratio (MNM: 1 MD) 10.1:1, Mortality index (MI) of 8.98%. Risk factors were obstetric hemorrhage 27.8%, abortion/ectopic 27.2%, eclampsia 16%, medical/surgical condition 14.8%, sepsis 13.6%, severe preeclamsia 11.1%, ruptured uterus 3.1%, and molar pregnancy 1.9%. 19.75% were prim gravidae, with mean age 25.66 yrs, and cardiovascular and coagulation dysfunction as a major life threatening condition and sepsis (25%) was the major cause of mortality. Conclusion: Hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders are the leading causes of near miss event and sepsis as a leading cause of mortality. As near miss analysis indicates the quality of health care, it is worth presenting in national indices.

Keywords: abortion, eclampsia, hemorrhage, maternal mortility, near miss

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15274 Larvicidal Activity of Azadirachtin and Essential Oils from Thymus capitatus against Prays oleae Bern (Lepidoptera, Yponomeutidae)

Authors: Imen Blibech, Mohiedine Ksantini, Mohamed Bouaziz

Abstract:

Prays oleae is a major insect of olive in the Mediterranean Region. In an effort to find effective and affordable ways of controlling this pest, larvicidal activity of essential oils from Tunisian Thymus capitatus were analyzed in comparison to Azadirachtin, a biologically active compound insecticide. The essential oils were extracted by hydrodistillation, and their chemical composition was determined by gas liquid-chromatography coupled with mass spectroscopy. The main components of chemical components were oxygenated monoterpenes (60.24%). The most abundant oxygenated monoterpenes were carvacrol (54.11%). Monoterpenes hydrocarbons were much more abundant and dominated by the o-cymene (16.68%). Both active compounds of Azadirachtin and Thymus capitatus oil extracts exhibited significant larvicidal activity against P. oleae with LC50 values 81.30 ppm and 52.49 ppm respectively. Dose-response relationships were established with almost 100% mortality when using the highest dose 100 ppm of T. capitatus oil extracts and 80 ppm of Azadirachtin. At the lowest dose (10 ppm), T. capitatus oil extracts and Azadirachtin caused 60% and 76% larval mortality in 48 hours respectively. The larval mortality rate greatly decreased with increases of the dilution of both oil extract compounds. Larval development duration appeared to be prolonged to about 12 days for larvae feeding on control diet. The maximum antifeedant activity was shown by both T. capitatus oil extract and Azadirachtin at LC90 values (47.5 and 50.1 ppm respectively). Tunisian T. capitatus oil extract used at low concentrations could be considered as eco-friendly promising insecticide similar to Azadirachtin that has significant potential for the biological control of P. oleae.

Keywords: Thymus capitatus, chemical composition, azadirachtin, larvicidal effects, antifeedant activity, Prays oleae

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15273 Do Patients with Neck of Femur Fractures Receive Adequate Anticoagulation? A West Midlands Study

Authors: U. N. Bhatty, A. Bhatia, A. George, F. Fiaz

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Post-operatively, patients with the neck of femur fractures are the high-risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTE). NICE have issued guidelines in this regard. We investigated whether these guidelines were being followed. 124 patients undergoing neck of femur fracture surgery were retrospectively analysed at a major orthopaedic centre in England. 9% of patients received adequate anticoagulation (16.5% mortality). An education campaign subsequently took place, circular emails were sent to junior doctors and posters advertised. A reaudit 4 months later showed only 12% of the 68 patients received adequate anticoagulation (11.8% mortality). The education campaign failed to improve prescribing behaviours. Furthermore, as morbidity was not measured, the consequence of poor prescription is underestimated. Perhaps, poor prescribing is because of the silent nature of effective thromboprophylaxis; reducing its perceived effectiveness. Simple interventions are insufficient to change these habits and more intense work is needed; such as compulsory proformas for all high-risk patients.

Keywords: fracture, hip, orthopaedics, thromboembolism

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15272 Mobulid Ray Post-Release Mortality to Assess the Feasibility of Live-Release Management Measures

Authors: Sila K. Sari, Betty J.L. Laglbauer, Muhammad G. Salim, Irianies C. Gozali, Iqbal Herwata, Fahmi Fahmi, Selvia Oktaviyani, Isabel Ender, Sarah Lewis, Abraham Sianipar, Mark Erdmann

Abstract:

Taking strides towards the sustainable use of marine stocks requires science-based management of target fish populations and reduction of bycatch in non-selective fisheries. Among elasmobranchs, mobulid rays are faced with high extinction risk due to intrinsic vulnerability to fishing and their conservation has been recognized as a strong priority both in Indonesia and worldwide. Despite their common vulnerabilities to fishing pressure due to slow growth, late maturation and low fecundity, only manta rays, but not devil rays, are protected in Indonesian waters. However, both manta and devil rays are captured in non-selective fisheries, in particular drift gillnets, since their habitat overlaps with fishing grounds for primary target species (e.g. marlin, swordfish and bullet tuna off the coast of Muncar). For this reason, mobulid populations are being heavily impacted, and while national-level protections are crucial to help conservation, they may not suffice alone to insure populations sustainability. In order to assess the potential of applying live-release management measures to conserve mobulids captured as bycatch in drift gillnets, we deployed pop-up survival archival transmitters to assess post-release mortality in Indonesian mobulid rays. We also assessed which fishing practices, in particular, soak duration, affected post-release mortality in order to draw relevant conclusions for management.

Keywords: Mobulid, Devil ray, Manta ray, Bycatch

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15271 Potential of Entomopathogenic Nematodes to Control Woolly Apple Aphid (Eriosoma lanigerum)

Authors: Nomakholwa F. Stokwe, Antoinette P. Malan

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Woolly apple aphid (WAA), Eriosoma lanigerum, is an important pest of apples worldwide. The aphid feeds above ground on buds and leaf axils and the roots of apple trees. Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) of the two families, Steinernematidae and Heterorhabditidae, and their symbiotic bacteria have generated extensive interest as inundative applied biological control agents of insects. With the development of the resistance of WAA to chemicals, export restrictions, and the inability of parasitoids to control the aphid successfully early in the season, considering EPNs as an alternative biocontrol agent is important. Seven EPN species were tested for their pathogenicity against WAA. Laboratory bioassays identified S. yirgalemense and H. zealandica as being the most virulent against the subterranean stage of the WAA, with a mortality rate of 48% and 38%, respectively. Studies on the effect of WAA size showed that the last instar is most susceptible to infection, whereas smaller instars appear to be too small for nematode penetration and infection. Neither increasing the exposure period of the aphids nor increasing the nematode concentration affected the infection rate positively. The haemolymph of WAA showed an inhibitory effect on the development of the symbiotic bacteria, preventing the completion of the nematode’s life cycle.

Keywords: apples, biocontrol, entomopathogenic nematodes, woolly apple aphid

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15270 Communities as a Source of Evidence: A Case of Advocating for Improved Human Resources for Health in Uganda

Authors: Asinguza P. Allan

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The Advocacy for Better Health aims to equip citizens with enabling environment and systems to effectively advocate for strong action plans to improve health services. This is because the 2020 Government target for Uganda to transform into a middle income country will be achieved if investment is made in keeping the population healthy and productive. Citizen participation as an important foundation for change has been emphasized to gather data through participatory rural appraisal and inform evidence-based advocacy for recruitment and motivation of human resources. Citizens conduct problem ranking during advocacy forums on staffing levels and health worker absenteeism. Citizens prioritised inadequate number of midwives and absenteeism. On triangulation, health worker to population ratio in Uganda remains at 0.25/1,000 which is far below the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold of 2.3/1,000. Working with IntraHealth, the project advocated for recruitment of critical skilled staff (doctors and midwives) and scale up health workers motivation strategy to reduce Uganda’s Neonatal Mortality Rate of 22/1,000 and Maternal Mortality Ratio of 320/100,000. Government has committed to increase staffing to 80% by 2018 (10 districts have passed ordinances and revived use of duty rosters to address health worker absenteeism. On the other hand, the better health advocacy debate has been elevated with need to increase health sector budget allocations from 8% to 10%. The project has learnt that building a body of evidence from citizens enhances the advocacy agenda. Communities will further monitor government commitments to reduce Neonatal Mortality Rate and Maternal Mortality Ratio. The project has learnt that interface meeting between duty bearers and the community allows for immediate feedback and the process is a strong instrument for empowerment. It facilitates monitoring and performance evaluation of services, projects and government administrative units (like district assemblies) by the community members themselves. This, in turn, makes the human resources in health to be accountable, transparent and responsive to communities where they work. This, in turn, promotes human resource performance.

Keywords: advocacy, empowerment, evidence, human resources

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15269 Acute Toxicity and the Effects of dichromate potassium (K2Cr2O7) in sobaity seabream (Sparidebtex hasta)

Authors: Elnaz Erfani, Elahe Erfni

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In this study, 96h LC50 values of dichromate potassium (K2Cr2O7), a highly toxicant heavy metal on sobaity seabream, Sparidebtex hasta of average weight mean weight 3.24 g; mean length 5.35cm was determined. At first, for rang finding test, fish were exposed to K2Cr2O7 at several selected concentrations 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 mg/L, then fish exposed to five concentrations control, 40, 45, 50 and 55 mg/L of K2Cr2O7 for LC50-96h. The experiment was carried out in triplicate, and 21 fish per each treatment, Physicochemical properties of water were measured continuously throughout the experiment. The temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen and salinity were 26 ◦c, 7.05, 8.84 mgO2 L-1 and 37.5 ppt, respectively. A number of mortality and behavioral responses of fish were recorded after 24, 48, 72 and 96 h. LC50 values were determined with probate analysis. The 96 hour LC50 value of K2Cr2O7 to the fish was found to be 48.82 ppm. In addition, behavioural changes increased with increased concentration. The results obtained in this study clearly revealed the fact that it is necessary to control the use of a heavy metal such as dichromate potassium.

Keywords: marin fish- lc50, dicromat potassium, lc50, mortality

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15268 Assessment of Airborne PM0.5 Mutagenic and Genotoxic Effects in Five Different Italian Cities: The MAPEC_LIFE Project

Authors: T. Schilirò, S. Bonetta, S. Bonetta, E. Ceretti, D. Feretti, I. Zerbini, V. Romanazzi, S. Levorato, T. Salvatori, S. Vannini, M. Verani, C. Pignata, F. Bagordo, G. Gilli, S. Bonizzoni, A. Bonetti, E. Carraro, U. Gelatti

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Air pollution is one of the most important worldwide health concern. In the last years, in both the US and Europe, new directives and regulations supporting more restrictive pollution limits were published. However, the early effects of air pollution occur, especially for the urban population. Several epidemiological and toxicological studies have documented the remarkable effect of particulate matter (PM) in increasing morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and natural cause mortality. The finest fractions of PM (PM with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm and less) play a major role in causing chronic diseases. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has recently classified air pollution and fine PM as carcinogenic to human (1 Group). The structure and composition of PM influence the biological properties of particles. The chemical composition varies with season and region of sampling, photochemical-meteorological conditions and sources of emissions. The aim of the MAPEC (Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on Children for supporting public health policy) study is to evaluate the associations between air pollution and biomarkers of early biological effects in oral mucosa cells of 6-8 year old children recruited from first grade schools. The study was performed in five Italian towns (Brescia, Torino, Lecce, Perugia and Pisa) characterized by different levels of airborne PM (PM10 annual average from 44 µg/m3 measured in Torino to 20 µg/m3 measured in Lecce). Two to five schools for each town were chosen to evaluate the variability of pollution within the same town. Child exposure to urban air pollution was evaluated by collecting ultrafine PM (PM0.5) in the school area, on the same day of biological sampling. PM samples were collected for 72h using a high-volume gravimetric air sampler and glass fiber filters in two different seasons (winter and spring). Gravimetric analysis of the collected filters was performed; PM0.5 organic extracts were chemically analyzed (PAH, Nitro-PAH) and tested on A549 by the Comet assay and Micronucleus test and on Salmonella strains (TA100, TA98, TA98NR and YG1021) by Ames test. Results showed that PM0.5 represents a high variable PM10 percentage (range 19.6-63%). PM10 concentration were generally lower than 50µg/m3 (EU daily limit). All PM0.5 extracts showed a mutagenic effect with TA98 strain (net revertant/m3 range 0.3-1.5) and suggested the presence of indirect mutagens, while lower effect was observed with TA100 strain. The results with the TA98NR and YG1021 strains showed the presence of nitroaromatic compounds as confirmed by the chemical analysis. No genotoxic or oxidative effect of PM0.5 extracts was observed using the comet assay (with/without Fpg enzyme) and micronucleus test except for some sporadic samples. The low biological effect observed could be related to the low level of air pollution observed in this winter sampling associated to a high atmospheric instability. For a greater understanding of the relationship between PM size, composition and biological effects the results obtained in this study suggest to investigate the biological effect of the other PM fractions and in particular of the PM0.5-1 fraction.

Keywords: airborne PM, ames test, comet assay, micronucleus test

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15267 Predictors of Pelvic Vascular Injuries in Patients with Pelvic Fractures from Major Blunt Trauma

Authors: Osama Zayed

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Aim of the work: The aim of this study is to assess the predictors of pelvic vascular injuries in patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma. Methods: This study was conducted as a tool-assessment study. Forty six patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma will be recruited to the study arriving to department of emergency, Suez Canal University Hospital. Data were collected from questionnaire including; personal data of the studied patients and full medical history, clinical examinations, outcome measures (The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), laboratory and imaging studies. Patients underwent surgical interventions or further investigations based on the conventional standards for interventions. All patients were followed up during conservative, operative and post-operative periods in the hospital for interpretation the predictive scores of vascular injuries. Results: Significant predictors of vascular injuries according to computed tomography (CT) scan include age, male gender, lower Glasgow coma (GCS) scores, occurrence of hypotension, mortality rate, higher physical POSSUM scores, presence of ultrasound collection, type of management, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) POSSUM scores, presence of abdominal injuries, and poor outcome. Conclusions: There was higher frequency of males than females in the studied patients. There were high probability of morbidity and low probability of mortality among patients. Our study demonstrates that POSSUM score can be used as a predictor of vascular injury in pelvis fracture patients.

Keywords: predictors, pelvic vascular injuries, pelvic fractures, major blunt trauma, POSSUM

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15266 Comparative Analysis of Petroleum Ether and Aqueous Extraction Solvents on Different Stages of Anopheles Gambiae Using Neem Leaf and Neem Stem

Authors: Tochukwu Ezechi Ebe, Fechi Njoku-Tony, Ifeyinwa Mgbenena

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Comparative analysis of petroleum ether and aqueous extraction solvents on different stages of Anopheles gambiae was carried out using neem leaf and neem stem. Soxhlet apparatus was used to extract each pulverized plant part. Each plant part extract from both solvents were separately used to test their effects on the developmental stages of Anopheles gambiae. The result showed that the mean mortality of extracts from petroleum ether extraction solvent was higher than that of aqueous extract. It was also observed that mean mortality decreases with increase in developmental stage. Furthermore, extracts from neem leaf was found to be more susceptible than extracts from neem stem using same extraction solvent.

Keywords: petroleum ether, aqueous, developmental, stages, extraction, Anopheles gambiae

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15265 Exploring the Spatial Characteristics of Mortality Map: A Statistical Area Perspective

Authors: Jung-Hong Hong, Jing-Cen Yang, Cai-Yu Ou

Abstract:

The analysis of geographic inequality heavily relies on the use of location-enabled statistical data and quantitative measures to present the spatial patterns of the selected phenomena and analyze their differences. To protect the privacy of individual instance and link to administrative units, point-based datasets are spatially aggregated to area-based statistical datasets, where only the overall status for the selected levels of spatial units is used for decision making. The partition of the spatial units thus has dominant influence on the outcomes of the analyzed results, well known as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). A new spatial reference framework, the Taiwan Geographical Statistical Classification (TGSC), was recently introduced in Taiwan based on the spatial partition principles of homogeneous consideration of the number of population and households. Comparing to the outcomes of the traditional township units, TGSC provides additional levels of spatial units with finer granularity for presenting spatial phenomena and enables domain experts to select appropriate dissemination level for publishing statistical data. This paper compares the results of respectively using TGSC and township unit on the mortality data and examines the spatial characteristics of their outcomes. For the mortality data between the period of January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2010 of the Taitung County, the all-cause age-standardized death rate (ASDR) ranges from 571 to 1757 per 100,000 persons, whereas the 2nd dissemination area (TGSC) shows greater variation, ranged from 0 to 2222 per 100,000. The finer granularity of spatial units of TGSC clearly provides better outcomes for identifying and evaluating the geographic inequality and can be further analyzed with the statistical measures from other perspectives (e.g., population, area, environment.). The management and analysis of the statistical data referring to the TGSC in this research is strongly supported by the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. An integrated workflow that consists of the tasks of the processing of death certificates, the geocoding of street address, the quality assurance of geocoded results, the automatic calculation of statistic measures, the standardized encoding of measures and the geo-visualization of statistical outcomes is developed. This paper also introduces a set of auxiliary measures from a geographic distribution perspective to further examine the hidden spatial characteristics of mortality data and justify the analyzed results. With the common statistical area framework like TGSC, the preliminary results demonstrate promising potential for developing a web-based statistical service that can effectively access domain statistical data and present the analyzed outcomes in meaningful ways to avoid wrong decision making.

Keywords: mortality map, spatial patterns, statistical area, variation

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15264 Human Health Risks Assessment of Particulate Air Pollution in Romania

Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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15263 Components and Public Health Impact of Population Growth in the Arab World

Authors: Asharaf Abdul Salam, Ibrahim Elsegaey, Rshood Khraif, Abdullah AlMutairi, Ali Aldosari

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Arab World that comprises of 22 member states of Arab League undergoes rapid transition in demographic front - fertility, mortality and migration. A distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa unified by Arabic language shares common values and characteristics even though diverse in economic and political conditions. Demographic lag that characterizes Arab World is unique but the present trend of declining fertility combined with the existing relatively low mortality undergoes significant changes in its population size. The current research aimed at (i) assessing the growth of population, over a period of 3 decades, (ii) exploring the components and (iii) understanding the public health impact. Based on International Data Base (IDB) of US Census Bureau, for 3 time periods – 1992, 2002 and 2012; 21 countries of Arab World have been analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors namely Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb and Nile Valley African Horn. Population of Arab World grew widely during the past both through natural growth and migration. Immigrations pronounced especially in the resource intensive GCC nations not only from East Asian and central African countries but also from resource thrifty Arab nations. Migrations within the Arab World as well as outside of the Arab World remark an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research. But the transformations on public health statistics – impact of demographic change – depict a new era in the Arab World.

Keywords: demographic change, public health statistics, net migration, natural growth, geographic sectors, fertility and mortality, life expectancy

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15262 Effect of Preconception Picture-Based Nutrition Education on Knowledge and Adherence to Iron-Folic Acid Supplementation Among Women Planning to Be Pregnant in Ethiopia

Authors: Anteneh Berhane Yeyi, Tefera Belachew

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Any woman who could become pregnant is at risk of having a baby with neural tube defects (NTDs). A spontaneous aborted women with immediately preceding pregnancy may have an increased risk of develop NTDs. Ethiopia has one of the highest rates of micronutrient deficiencies, including folate and iron deficiency. Currently, in Ethiopia, NTDs is emerged as a public health concern. Even if Ethiopia, has implement different strategies for reducing maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity, there is no room in the health care system and lack of integration for preventing the risk of NTDs for those women who aborted spontaneously and women who discontinue long acting contraception to become pregnant. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of preconception picture-based nutrition education on knowledge and adherence to iron-folic acid supplement (IFAS) intake to reduce the risk of developing neural tube defects (NTDs) and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) among women who had a planned to pregnancy in Ethiopia, a country with a high burden of NTDs. Methodology: This study was conducted in Eastern Ethiopia. A double blinded parallel randomized controlled trial design was employed among women in the age group of 18-45 years who requested to interrupt modern contraceptive who have an intention to be pregnant and women with spontaneous abortion who refused to take a contraceptive. The interventional arm (n=122) received a preconception picture-based nutrition education with iron-folic acid supplement, and the control arm (n=122) received only preconception IFAS. In this study male partners were participated. Result: After three months of intervention the proportion of adherence to IFAS was 23% (n=56). With regard to adherence within the groups, 42.6% (n=52) in the intervention group and 3.3% (n=4) in the control group and the intervention group were significantly higher than in control group. In the intervention group the proportion of adherence to IFAS intake among participants increased by 40.1% and there were statistically difference (P<0.0001). The difference in difference between the two groups of adherence to IFAS intake was 37.6% and there were a statistical significance (P<0.0001). Level of knowledge between the groups did differ before and after intervention (P= 0.87 Vs P<0.0001). The overall the mean change in knowledge Mean (+SE) between group was 0.9 (+3.04 SE) and there were significant differences between two groups (P<0.001). Conclusion: In general this intervention is effective toward adherence to IFAS and a critical milestone to improve maternal health and reduce the neonate mortality due to NTDs and other advert effect of pregnancy and birth outcomes. This intervention is very short, simple, and cost effective and has potential for adaptation, feasible development to large-scale implementation in the existing health care system. Furthermore, this type of interventional approach has the potential to reduce the country's ANC program dropout rates and increase male partner’s participation on reproductive health.

Keywords: NTDs, IFAS, WRA, Ethiopia

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15261 The Impact of Heat Waves on Human Health: State of Art in Italy

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

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The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

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15260 Injury Patterns and Outcomes in Alcohol Intoxicated Trauma Patients Admitted at Level I Apex Trauma Centre of a Developing Nation

Authors: G. Kaushik, A. Gupta, S. Lalwani, K. D. Soni, S. Kumar, S. Sagar

Abstract:

Objective: Alcohol is a leading risk factor associated with the disability and death due to RTI. Present study aims to demonstrate the demographic profile, injury pattern, physiological parameters of victims of trauma following alcohol consumption arriving in the emergency department (ED) and mortality in alcohol intoxicated trauma patients admitted to Apex Trauma Center in Delhi. Design and Methods: Present study was performed in randomly selected 182 alcohol breath analyzer tested RTI patients from the emergency department of Jai Prakash Narayan Apex Trauma Center (JPNATC), All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi for over a period of 3 months started from September 2013 to November 2013. Results: A total 182 RTI patients with blunt injury were selected between 30-40 years of age and equally distributed to male and female group. Of these, 93 (51%) were alcohol negative and 89 (49%) were alcohol positive. In 89 alcohol positive patients, 47 (53%) had Artificial Airway as compared to 17 (18%), (p < 0.001) in the other group. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score was lower (p < 0.001) and higher Injury Severity Score (ISS) was observed in alcohol positive group as compared to other group (p < 0.03). Increased number of patients (58%) were admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU), in alcohol positive group (p < 0.001) and they were in ICU for longer time compare to other group (p < 0.001). The alcohol positive patients were on ventilator support for longer duration as compared to non-alcoholic group (p < 0.001). Mortality rate was higher in alcohol intoxicated patients as compared to non-alcoholic RTI patients, however, the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion: This study revealed that GCS, mean ISS, ICU stay, ventilation time etc. might have considerable impact on mortality in alcohol intoxicated patients as compared to non-alcoholic group.

Keywords: road traffic injuries, alcohol, trauma, emergency department

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15259 Biosecurity Control Systems in Two Phases for Poultry Farms

Authors: M. Peña Aguilar Juan, E. Nava Galván Claudia, Pastrana Palma Alberto

Abstract:

In this work was developed and implemented a thermal fogging disinfection system to counteract pathogens from poultry feces in agribusiness farms, to reduce mortality rates and increase biosafety in them. The control system consists of two phases for the conditioning of the farm during the sanitary break. In the first phase, viral and bacterial inactivation was performed by treating the stool dry cleaning, along with the development of a specialized product that foster the generation of temperatures above 55 °C in less than 24 hr, for virus inactivation. In the second phase, a process for disinfection by fogging was implemented, along with the development of a specialized disinfectant that guarantee no risk for the operators’ health or birds. As a result of this process, it was possible to minimize the level of mortality of chickens on farms from 12% to 5.49%, representing a reduction of 6.51% in the death rate, through the formula applied to the treatment of poultry litter based on oxidising agents used as antiseptics, hydrogen peroxide solutions, glacial acetic acid and EDTA in order to act on bacteria, viruses, micro bacteria and spores.

Keywords: innovation, triple helix, poultry farms, biosecurity

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15258 Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Pakistan: A Decomposition Analysis Using LMDI

Authors: Arsalan Khan, Faisal Jamil

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The unprecedented increase in anthropogenic gases in recent decades has led to climatic changes worldwide. CO2 emissions are the most important factors responsible for greenhouse gases concentrations. This study decomposes the changes in overall CO2 emissions in Pakistan for the period 1990-2012 using Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). LMDI enables to decompose the changes in CO2 emissions into five factors namely; activity effect, structural effect, intensity effect, fuel-mix effect, and emissions factor effect. This paper confirms an upward trend of overall emissions level of the country during the period. The study finds that activity effect, structural effect and intensity effect are the three major factors responsible for the changes in overall CO2 emissions in Pakistan with activity effect as the largest contributor to overall changes in the emissions level. The structural effect is also adding to CO2 emissions, which indicates that the economic activity is shifting towards more energy-intensive sectors. However, intensity effect has negative sign representing energy efficiency gains, which indicate a good relationship between the economy and environment. The findings suggest that policy makers should encourage the diversification of the output level towards more energy efficient sub-sectors of the economy.

Keywords: energy consumption, CO2 emissions, decomposition analysis, LMDI, intensity effect

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15257 Inpatient Glycemic Management Strategies and Their Association with Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 Patients

Authors: Thao Nguyen, Maximiliano Hyon, Sany Rajagukguk, Anna Melkonyan

Abstract:

Introduction: Type 2 Diabetes is a well-established risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Uncontrolled hyperglycemia in patients with established or newly diagnosed diabetes is associated with poor outcomes, including increased mortality and hospital length of stay. Objectives: Our study aims to compare three different glycemic management strategies and their association with clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized for moderate to severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Identifying optimal glycemic management strategies will improve the quality of patient care and improve their outcomes. Method: This is a retrospective observational study on patients hospitalized at Adventist Health White Memorial with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection from 11/1/2020 to 02/28/2021. The following inclusion criteria were used: positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test, age >18 yrs old, diabetes or random glucose >200 mg/dL on admission, oxygen requirement >4L/min, and treatment with glucocorticoids. Our exclusion criteria included: ICU admission within 24 hours, discharge within five days, death within five days, and pregnancy. The patients were divided into three glycemic management groups: Group 1, managed solely by the Primary Team, Group 2, by Pharmacy; and Group 3, by Endocrinologist. Primary outcomes were average glucose on Day 5, change in glucose between Days 3 and 5, and average insulin dose on Day 5 among groups. Secondary outcomes would be upgraded to ICU, inpatient mortality, and hospital length of stay. For statistics, we used IBM® SPSS, version 28, 2022. Results: Most studied patients were Hispanic, older than 60, and obese (BMI >30). It was the first CV-19 surge with the Delta variant in an unvaccinated population. Mortality was markedly high (> 40%) with longer LOS (> 13 days) and a high ICU transfer rate (18%). Most patients had markedly elevated inflammatory markers (CRP, Ferritin, and D-Dimer). These, in combination with glucocorticoids, resulted in severe hyperglycemia that was difficult to control. Average glucose on Day 5 was not significantly different between groups primary vs. pharmacy vs. endocrine (220.5 ± 63.4 vs. 240.9 ± 71.1 vs. 208.6 ± 61.7 ; P = 0.105). Change in glucose from days 3 to 5 was not significantly different between groups but trended towards favoring the endocrinologist group (-26.6±73.6 vs. 3.8±69.5 vs. -32.2±84.1; P= 0.052). TDD insulin was not significantly different between groups but trended towards higher TDD for the endocrinologist group (34.6 ± 26.1 vs. 35.2 ± 26.4 vs. 50.5 ± 50.9; P=0.054). The endocrinologist group used significantly more preprandial insulin compared to other groups (91.7% vs. 39.1% vs. 65.9% ; P < 0.001). The pharmacy used more basal insulin than other groups (95.1% vs. 79.5% vs. 79.2; P = 0.047). There were no differences among groups in the clinical outcomes: LOS, ICU upgrade, or mortality. Multivariate regression analysis controlled for age, sex, BMI, HbA1c level, renal function, liver function, CRP, d-dimer, and ferritin showed no difference in outcomes among groups. Conclusion: Given high-risk factors in our population, despite efforts from the glycemic management teams, it’s unsurprising no differences in clinical outcomes in mortality and length of stay.

Keywords: glycemic management, strategies, hospitalized, SARS-CoV-2, outcomes

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15256 The Rebound Effect of Energy Efficiency in Residential Energy Demand: Case of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Mohammad Aldubyan, Fateh Belaid, Anwar Gasim

Abstract:

This paper aims at linking to link residential energy efficiency to the rebound effect concept, a well-known behavioral phenomenon in which service consumption increases when consumers notice a reduction in monetary spending on energy due to improvements in energy efficiency. It provides insights on into how and why the rebound effect happens when energy efficiency improves and whether this phenomenon is positive or negative. It also shows one technique to estimate the rebound effect on the national residential level. The paper starts with a bird’s eye view of the rebound effect and then dives in in-depth into measuring the rebound effect and evaluating its impact. Finally, the paper estimates the rebound effect in the Saudi residential sector through by linking pre-estimated price elasticities of demand to the Saudi residential building stock.

Keywords: energy efficiency, rebound effect, energy consumption, residential electricity demand

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15255 Screening of Some Saudi Plants for Their Alleviating Effect on the Exaggerated Vasoconstriction in Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Hossam M. Abdallah, Ali M. El-Halawany, Gamal A. Mohamed, Khalid Z. Alshali, Zainy M. Banjar, Hany A. El-Bassossy

Abstract:

Hypertension and vascular dysfunction are major components and complications of many diseases like metabolic syndrome. In addition, vascular dysfunction is considered the initial step in diabetic atherosclerosis, the main etiology for mortality and a great percent of morbidity in diabetic patients. In spite of the significant developments in antidiabetic therapy, diabetic complications, particularly seen in long-term diabetes, continue to be seriously deleterious. Herbal drugs are prescribed widely in treatment of different aliment because of their effectiveness, fewer side effects and relatively low cost. Nine plants belong to five different families grown in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia were evaluated for their effect on exaggerated vasoconstriction and impaired relaxation in aortae isolated from metabolic syndrome rats. The aerial parts of Onopordum ambiguum Fresen. (OA), Astragalus abyssinicus Steud. (AA), Pulicaria Arabica Cass. (PA), Echinops sheilae Kit Tan (ES), Aizoon canariense L. (AC), Cleome viscosa L. (CV), Chrozophora oblongifolia (Delile) A.Juss. ex Spreng (CO), Centaurea pseudosinaica Mouterde (CP) and Tephrosia nubica Baker (TN) were dried and extracted with methanol. The effect of thirty minute incubation with the total extracts (10-330 µg/ml) or their fractions on the exaggerated vasoconstriction response to phenylephrine (10nM to 10microM) and impaired vasodilation to acetylcholine (10-330 µg /ml) of aortae isolated from metabolic syndrome animals was studied. Incubating aortae isolated from metabolic syndrome animals with total methanol extract of OA, AA, PA, AC, CV, and TN at concentrations (10-330 microgram/ml) in the organ bath led to concentration dependent alleviation of exaggerated vasoconstriction response to phenylephrine without having beneficial effect on impaired vasodilation to acetylcholine. In conclusion, addition of OA, AA, PA, AC, CV and TN to the standard therapies may provide superior means to alleviate the associated vascular complications.

Keywords: vascular dysfunction, exaggerated vasoconstriction, metabolic syndrome, Saudi plants

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15254 Does Clinical Guidelines Affect Healthcare Quality and Populational Health: Quebec Colorectal Cancer Screening Program

Authors: Nizar Ghali, Bernard Fortin, Guy Lacroix

Abstract:

In Quebec, colonoscopies volumes have continued to rise in recent years in the absence of effective monitoring mechanism for the appropriateness and the quality of these exams. In 2010, November, Quebec Government introduced the colorectal cancer-screening program in the objective to control for volume and cost imperfection. This program is based on clinical standards and was initiated for first group of institutions. One year later, Government adds financial incentives for participants institutions. In this analysis, we want to assess for the causal effect of the two components of this program: clinical pathways and financial incentives. Especially we assess for the reform effect on healthcare quality and population health in the context that medical remuneration is not directly dependent on this additional funding offered by the program. We have data on admissions episodes and deaths for 8 years. We use multistate model analog to difference in difference approach to estimate reform effect on the transition probability between different states for each patient. Our results show that the reform reduced length of stay without deterioration in hospital mortality or readmission rate. In the other hand, the program contributed to decrease the hospitalization rate and a less invasive treatment approach for colorectal surgeries. This is a sign of healthcare quality and population health improvement. We demonstrate in this analysis that physicians’ behavior can be affected by both clinical standards and financial incentives even if offered to facilities.

Keywords: multi-state and multi-episode transition model, healthcare quality, length of stay, transition probability, difference in difference

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15253 Men's Decision Making: The Determinant of Home Delivery among Women in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan

Authors: Hussain Ali, Ahmad Ali, Syed Rashid Ali

Abstract:

The maternal mortality is one of the basic health issues faced by rural women in Pakistan. There are various structural and socio-cultural determinants which confine women to domestic sphere. Such mobility restriction compels women for home delivery which causes high maternal mortality and morbidity. However, it is hard to find out the research findings and well-organized literature that explain the cultural factors act as determinant to home delivery among Pakhtun women. The overall objective of this research is to study men’s decision making within the household in Pakhtun society as determinant of home delivery among Pakhtun women in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. In the present study, researchers used the quantitative research design in which the data are collected through household survey technique from (n=503) ever-married women having reproductive age (15-49 years) by using interview schedule. The data are analyzed through SPSS, and binary logistic regression was applied to draw the association between home as a place of delivery and men’s decision making in the Pakhtun society. The results show that majority (76%) of the husbands are key decision makers about the home delivery due to their superior position within household. Similarly, majority (88%) Pakhtun women prefer to stay in home for their delivery due to their dependency on husband’s decision. The researcher concludes that men are key decision makers in Pakhtun society and their decisions affect women maternal health care. Similarly, the women are in subordinate position, and their limited decision making in the domestic sphere are greatly responsible for home delivery which causing high maternal mortality rate in the study area. In order to achieve Sustainable Development Goal No. 3, the study recommends empowering women in the decision making about accessing and utilizing maternal health care services and given financial autonomy to them.

Keywords: home delivery, men’s decision, Pakhtun women, subordinate position

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15252 Contribution of NLRP3 Inflammasome to the Protective Effect of 5,14-HEDGE, A 20-HETE Mimetic, against LPS-Induced Septic Shock in Rats

Authors: Bahar Tunctan, Sefika Pinar Kucukkavruk, Meryem Temiz-Resitoglu, Demet Sinem Guden, Ayse Nihal Sari, Seyhan Sahan-Firat, Mahesh P. Paudyal, John R. Falck, Kafait U. Malik

Abstract:

We hypothesized that 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (20-HETE) mimetics such as N-(20-hydroxyeicosa-5[Z],14[Z]-dienoyl)glycine (5,14-HEDGE) may be beneficial for preventing mortality due to inflammation induced by lipopolysaccharide (LPS). This study aims to assess the effect of 5,14-HEDGE on the LPS-induced changes in nucleotide binding domain and leucine-rich repeat protein 3 (NLRP3)/apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a caspase activation and recruitment domain (ASC)/pro-caspase-1 inflammasome. Rats were injected with saline (4 ml/kg) or LPS (10 mg/kg) at time 0. Blood pressure and heart rate were measured using a tail-cuff device. 5,14-HEDGE (30 mg/kg) was administered to rats 1 h after injection of saline or LPS. The rats were sacrificed 4 h after saline or LPS injection and kidney, heart, thoracic aorta, and superior mesenteric artery were isolated for measurement of caspase-1/11 p20, NLRP3, ASC, and β-actin proteins as well as interleukin-1β (IL-1β) levels. Blood pressure decreased by 33 mmHg and heart rate increased by 63 bpm in the LPS-treated rats. In the LPS-treated rats, tissue protein expression of caspase-1/11 p20, NLRP3, and ASC in addition to IL-1β levels were increased. 5,14-HEDGE prevented the LPS-induced changes. Our findings suggest that inhibition of renal, cardiac, and vascular formation/activity of NLRP3/ASC/pro-caspase-1 inflammasome involved in the protective effect of 5,14-HEDGE on LPS-induced septic shock in rats. This work was financially supported by the Mersin University (2015-AP3-1343) and USPHS NIH (PO1 HL034300).

Keywords: 5, 14-HEDGE, lipopolysaccharide, NLRP3, inflammasome, septic shock

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15251 Yarkovsky Effect on the Orbital Dynamics of the Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Authors: Sanjay Narayan Deo, Badam Singh Kushvah

Abstract:

Bennu(101955) is a half kilometer potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid. We analyze the influence of Yarkovsky effect and relativistic effect of the Sun on the motion of the asteroid Bennu. The transverse model is used to compute Yarkovsky force on asteroid Bennu. Our dynamical model includes Newtonian perturbations of eight planets, the Moon, the Sun and three massive asteroid (1Ceres, 2Palas and 4Vesta). We showed the variation in orbital elements of nominal orbit of the asteroid. In the presence of Yarkovsky effect, the Semi-major axis of the orbit of the asteroid is decreases by 350 m over one period of orbital motion. The magnitude of Yarkovsky force is computed. We find that maximum magnitude of Yarkovsky force is 0.09 N at the perihelion . We also found that the magnitude of the Sun relativity effect is greater than the Yarkovsky effect on the motion the asteroid Bennu.

Keywords: Bennu, orbital elements, relativistic effect, Yarkovsky effect

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15250 Low Volume High Intensity Interval Training Effect on Liver Enzymes in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

Authors: Aya Gamal Khattab

Abstract:

Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is now the leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality; Currently, alanine aminotransferase ALT measurement is not only widely used in detecting the incidence, development, and prognosis of liver disease with obvious clinical symptoms, but also provides reference on screening the overall health status during health check-ups. Exercise is a low-cost, reliable and sustainable therapy for many chronic diseases. Low-volume high intensity interval training HIT is time efficient while also having wider application to different populations including people at risk for chronic inflammatory diseases. Purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of low volume high intensity interval training on ALT, AST in HCV patients. All practical work was done in outpatient physiotherapy clinic of Suez Canal Authority Hospitals. Forty patients both gender (27 male, 13 female), age ranged (40-60) years old submitted to low volume high intensity interval training on treadmill for two months three sessions per week. Each session consisting of five min warming up, two bouts for 10 min each bout consisting of 30 sec - 1 min of high intensity (75%-85%) HRmax then two to four min active recovery at intensity (40%-60%) HRmax, so the sum of high intensity intervals was one to two min for each session and four to eight min active recovery, and ends with five min cooling down. ALT and AST were measured before starting exercise session and 2 months later after finishing the total exercise sessions through blood samples. Results showed significant decrease in ALT, AST with improvement percentage (18.85%), (23.87%) in the study, so the study concluded that low volume high intensity interval training had a significant effect in lowering the level of circulating liver enzymes (ALT, AST) which means protection of hepatic cells and restoration of its function.

Keywords: alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), hepatitis C (HCV), low volume high intensity interval training

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15249 Communication of Expected Survival Time to Cancer Patients: How It Is Done and How It Should Be Done

Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

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Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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15248 Acute Renal Failure Associated Tetanus Infection: A Case Report from Afghanistan

Authors: Shohra Qaderi

Abstract:

Introduction: Tetanus is a severe infection characterized by the spasm of skeletal muscles that often progresses toward respiratory failure. Acute Renal failure (ARF) is an important complication associated Tetanus infection, occurring in 15%-39% of cases. Presentation of cases: A previous healthy 14-year-old boy was admitted to the Tetanus ward of a hospital in Kabul, presenting with severe muscle spasms. On day four of admission, he started having cola-colored urine with decreased urine output. Due to lack of peritoneal dialysis, he went under hemodialysis in view of rapidly raising in blood urea (from baseline 32 mg/dl to 150 mg/dl) and creatinine from (baseline 0.9 mg/dl to 6.2g/dl). Despite all efforts, he had a sudden cardiac arrest and passed away on day 6 of admission. Discussion: ARF is a complication of tetanus, reported to be mild and non-oliguric. Suggested pathological mechanisms include autonomic dysfunction and rhabdomyolysis, owing to uncontrolled muscle spasms. Autonomic dysfunction, most evident in the first two weeks of infection. Conclusion: The prevalence and mortality of tetanus is high in Afghanistan. Physicians and pediatricians need to be aware of this complication of tetanus so as to take appropriate preventive measures and recognize and manage it early.

Keywords: afghanistan, acute renal failure, child, mortality

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