Search results for: electroacoustic methods

Authors: Sinem O. Aktan, Musa Y. Akkurt

Abstract:

Experimental pressure calibration methods can be classified into three areas: (1) measurements in liquid or gas systems, (2) measurements in static-solid media systems, and (3) measurements in dynamic shock systems. Fluid (liquid and gas) systems high accuracies can be obtainable and commonly used for the calibration method of a pressure sensor. Pressure calibrations can be performed for metrological traceability in two ways, which are on-site (field) and in the laboratory. Laboratory and on-site calibration procedures and the requirements of the DKD-R-6-1 and Euramet cg-17 guidelines will also be addressed. In this study, calibration methods of direct and indirect reading pressure sensor and measurement uncertainty contributions will be explained.

Keywords: pressure metrology, pressure calibration, dead-weight tester, pressure uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Davood Barari Tari

Abstract:

In order to investigate the correlation of rice traits in different nitrogen management methods by modeling programming, an experiment was laid out in rice paddy field in an experimental field at Caspian Coastal Sea region from 2013 to 2014. Variety used was Shiroudi as a high yielding variety. Nitrogen management was in two methods. Amount of nitrogen at four levels (30, 60, 90, and 120 Kg N ha-1 and control) and nitrogen-splitting at four levels (T1: 50% in base + 50% in maximum tillering stage, T2= 33.33% basal +33.33% in maximum tillering stage +33.33% in panicle initiation stage, T3=25% basal+37.5% in maximum tillering stage +37.5% in panicle initiation stage, T4: 25% in basal + 25% in maximum tillering stage + 50% in panicle initiation stage). Results showed that nitrogen traits, total grain number, filled spikelets, panicle number per m2 had a significant correlation with grain yield. Results related to calibrated and validation of rice model methods indicated that correlation between rice yield and yield components was accurate. The correlation between panicle length and grain yield was minimum. Physiological indices was simulated with low accuracy. According to results, investigation of the correlation between rice traits in physiological, morphological and phenological characters and yield by modeling and simulation methods are very useful.

Keywords: rice, physiology, modelling, simulation, yield traits

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: A. Kazemi Jouybari, A. Mirabdolah Lavasani

Abstract:

This paper seeks to the solution of condensation around of a flat plate, circular and elliptical tube in way of numerical and analytical methods. Also, it calculates the entropy production rates. The first, problem was solved by using mesh dynamic and rational assumptions, next it was compared with the numerical solution that the result had acceptable errors. An additional supporting relation was applied based on a characteristic of condensation phenomenon for condensing elements. As it has been shown here, due to higher rates of heat transfer for elliptical tubes, they have more entropy production rates, in comparison to circular ones. Findings showed that two methods were efficient. Furthermore, analytical methods can be used to optimize the problem and reduce the entropy production rate.

Keywords: condensation, numerical solution, analytical solution, entropy rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Emmanuel Carlos De Mata Castrejón

Abstract:

Music education has shown to be connected to many areas of sciences and arts, it has also been associated with several facets of human life. The many aspects around the study of music and education, make very difficult for the music educator to find a way through, even though there are lots of methods of teaching music to young children, they are different between one another and so are the students. For the music to help improve children’s development, it is necessary for the children to explore their musicality as they explore their creativity; it must be a challenging, playful, and enjoyable activity. The purpose of this investigation is to focus the music education not in the music, nor the teaching, but the children to be guided through their own musicality. The first approach to this kind of music education comes from the Active learning methods during the nineteenth century, most of which are still used around the world, sometimes with modifications to fit a certain place or type of students. This approach on children’s musicality requires some knowledge of music, pedagogy, and developmental psychology at least, but more important than the theory or the method used for music education, the focus should be on developing the student’s musicality, considering the complexity of this concept. To get this, it is needed, indeed, far more research in the topic, so this is a call for collaborative research and for interdisciplinary teams to emerge. This is a review of authors and methods in music education trying to trace a line pointing to transdisciplinary work and pursuing the development of children’s musicality.

Keywords: children, methods, music education, musicality

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Stephanie Boue, Nicolas Sierro, Julia Hoeng, Manuel C. Peitsch

Abstract:

Systems biology relies on large numbers of data points and sophisticated methods to extract biologically meaningful signal and mechanistic understanding. For example, analyses of transcriptomics and proteomics data enable to gain insights into the molecular differences in tissues exposed to diverse stimuli or test items. Whereas the interpretation of endpoints specifically measuring a mechanism is relatively straightforward, the interpretation of big data is more complex and would benefit from comparing results obtained with diverse analysis methods. The sbv IMPROVER project was created to implement solutions to verify systems biology data, methods, and conclusions. Computational challenges leveraging the wisdom of the crowd allow benchmarking methods for specific tasks, such as signature extraction and/or samples classification. Four challenges have already been successfully conducted and confirmed that the aggregation of predictions often leads to better results than individual predictions and that methods perform best in specific contexts. Whenever the scientific question of interest does not have a gold standard, but may greatly benefit from the scientific community to come together and discuss their approaches and results, datathons are set up. The inaugural sbv IMPROVER datathon was held in Singapore on 23-24 September 2016. It allowed bioinformaticians and data scientists to consolidate their ideas and work on the most promising methods as teams, after having initially reflected on the problem on their own. The outcome is a set of visualization and analysis methods that will be shared with the scientific community via the Garuda platform, an open connectivity platform that provides a framework to navigate through different applications, databases and services in biology and medicine. We will present the results we obtained when analyzing data with our network-based method, and introduce a datathon that will take place in Japan to encourage the analysis of the same datasets with other methods to allow for the consolidation of conclusions.

Keywords: big data interpretation, datathon, systems toxicology, verification

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 208

Authors: Palwinder Singh, Munish Sandhir, Tejinder Singh

Abstract:

The ordinary differential equations (ODE) represent a natural framework for mathematical modeling of many real-life situations in the field of engineering, control systems, physics, chemistry and astronomy etc. Such type of differential equations can be solved by analytical methods or by numerical methods. If the solution is calculated using analytical methods, it is done through calculus theories, and thus requires a longer time to solve. In this paper, we compare the numerical accuracy of the solutions given by the three main types of one-step initial value solvers: Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method and Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method (RK4). The comparison of accuracy is obtained through comparing the solutions of ordinary differential equation given by these three methods. Furthermore, to verify the accuracy; we compare these numerical solutions with the exact solutions.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations (ODE), Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method, Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

Abstract:

Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Shima Soltanzadeh, Mohammad Hosain Fazel Zarandi, Mojtaba Barzegar Astanjin

Abstract:

Diagnosis of male infertility by the laboratory tests is expensive and, sometimes it is intolerable for patients. Filling out the questionnaire and then using classification method can be the first step in decision-making process, so only in the cases with a high probability of infertility we can use the laboratory tests. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of four classification methods including naive Bayesian, neural network, logistic regression and fuzzy c-means clustering as a classification, in the diagnosis of male infertility due to environmental factors. Since the data are unbalanced, the ROC curves are most suitable method for the comparison. In this paper, we also have selected the more important features using a filtering method and examined the impact of this feature reduction on the performance of each methods; generally, most of the methods had better performance after applying the filter. We have showed that using fuzzy c-means clustering as a classification has a good performance according to the ROC curves and its performance is comparable to other classification methods like logistic regression.

Keywords: classification, fuzzy c-means, logistic regression, Naive Bayesian, neural network, ROC curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Krasimir I. Ivanov, Penka S. Zapryanova, Stefan V. Krustev, Violina R. Angelova

Abstract:

Three commonly used digestion methods (dry ashing, acid digestion, and microwave digestion) in different variants were compared for digestion of tobacco leaves. Three main macroelements (K, Ca and Mg) were analysed using AAS Spectrometer Spectra АА 220, Varian, Australia. The accuracy and precision of the measurements were evaluated by using Polish reference material CTR-VTL-2 (Virginia tobacco leaves). To elucidate the problems with elemental recovery X-Ray and SEM–EDS analysis of all residues after digestion were performed. The X-ray investigation showed a formation of KClO₄ when HClO4 was used as a part of the acids mixture. The use of HF at Ca and Mg determination led to the formation of CaF₂ and MgF₂. The results were confirmed by energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis. SPSS program for Windows was used for statistical data processing.

Keywords: digestion methods, plant tissue, determination of macroelements, K, Ca, Mg

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Nima Dastanboo, Xiao-Qing Li, Hamed Gharibdoost

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate about the geological properties ahead of a tunnel face with using Electrical Resistivity Tomography ERT and Tunnel Seismic Prediction TSP303 methods. In deep tunnels with hydro-geological conditions, it is important to study the geological structures of the region before excavating tunnels. Otherwise, it would lead to unexpected accidents that impose serious damage to the project. For constructing Nosoud tunnel in west of Iran, the ERT and TSP303 methods are employed to predict the geological conditions dynamically during the excavation. In this paper, based on the engineering background of Nosoud tunnel, the important results of applying these methods are discussed. This work demonstrates seismic method and electrical tomography as two geophysical techniques that are able to detect a tunnel. The results of these two methods were being in agreement with each other but the results of TSP303 are more accurate and quality. In this case, the TSP 303 method was a useful tool for predicting unstable geological structures ahead of the tunnel face during excavation. Thus, using another geophysical method together with TSP303 could be helpful as a decision support in excavating, especially in complicated geological conditions.

Keywords: tunnel seismic prediction (TSP303), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), seismic wave, velocity analysis, low-velocity zones

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Hamid Gholami

Abstract:

During the years, the language teaching methods have been the offshoots of schools of thought in psychology. The methods were mainly influenced by their contemporary psychological approaches, as Audiolingualism was based on behaviorism and Communicative Language Teaching on constructivism. In 1950s, the text books were full of repetition exercises which were encouraged by Behaviorism. In 1980s they got filled with communicative exercises as suggested by constructivism. The trend went on to nowadays that sees no specific method as prevalent since none of the schools of thought seem to be illustrative of the complexity in human being learning. But some changes can be notable; some textbooks are giving more and more space to repetition exercises at least to enhance some aspects of language proficiency, namely collocations, rhythm and intonation, and conversation models. These changes may mark the reemergence of one of the once widely accepted schools of thought in psychology; behaviorism.

Keywords: language teaching methods, psychology, schools of thought, Behaviorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 561

Authors: Gram Y. Rivas Sanchez

Abstract:

The seismic design codes in the world allow the analysis of structures considering an elastic-linear behavior; however, against earthquakes, the structures exhibit non-linear behaviors that induce damage to their elements. For this reason, it is necessary to use non-linear methods to analyze these structures, being the dynamic methods that provide more reliable results but require a lot of computational costs; on the other hand, non-linear static methods do not have this disadvantage and are being used more and more. In the present work, the nonlinear static analysis (pushover) of RC frame buildings of three, five, and seven stories is carried out considering models of concentrated plasticity using plastic hinges; and the seismic performance points are determined using ATC-40, FEMA 356, and FEMA 440 guidelines. Using this last standard, the highest inelastic displacements and basal shears are obtained, providing designs that are more conservative.

Keywords: pushover, nonlinear, RC building, FEMA 440, ATC 40

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Yifan Fan, Xudong Luo, Pingping Lin

Abstract:

Nowadays, dialogue systems increasingly become the way for humans to access many computer systems. So, humans can interact with computers in natural language. A dialogue system consists of three parts: understanding what humans say in natural language, managing dialogue, and generating responses in natural language. In this paper, we survey deep learning based methods for dialogue management, response generation and dialogue evaluation. Specifically, these methods are based on neural network, long short-term memory network, deep reinforcement learning, pre-training and generative adversarial network. We compare these methods and point out the further research directions.

Keywords: dialogue management, response generation, deep learning, evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Somayeh Nezami

Abstract:

The management of financial and human resources of police in metropolitans requires many information and exact plans to reduce a rate of crime and increase the safety of the society. Geographical Information Systems have an important role in providing crime maps and their analysis. By using them and identification of crime hot spots along with spatial presentation of the results, it is possible to allocate optimum resources while presenting effective methods for decision making and preventive solutions. In this paper, we try to explain and compare between some of the methods of hot spots analysis such as Mode, Fuzzy Mode and Nearest Neighbour Hierarchical spatial clustering (NNH). Then the spots with the highest crime rates of drug smuggling for one province in Iran with borderline with Afghanistan are obtained. We will show that among these three methods NNH leads to the best result.

Keywords: GIS, Hot spots, nearest neighbor hierarchical spatial clustering, NNH, spatial analysis of crime

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Mohammed Belloufi, Rachid Benzine, Badreddine Sellami

Abstract:

Conjugate gradient methods is useful for solving large scale optimization problems in scientific and engineering computation, characterized by the simplicity of their iteration and their low memory requirements. It is well known that the search direction plays a main role in the line search method. In this paper, we propose a search direction with the Wolfe line search technique for solving unconstrained optimization problems. Under the above line searches and some assumptions, the global convergence properties of the given methods are discussed. Numerical results and comparisons with other CG methods are given.

Keywords: unconstrained optimization, conjugate gradient method, strong Wolfe line search, global convergence

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: J. Berčík, A. Mravcová, A. Rusková, P. Jurčišin, R. Virágh

Abstract:

The online world is changing every day. With this comes the emergence and development of new business models. One of them is the sale of several types of products in one place. This type of sales in the form of online marketplaces has undergone a positive development in recent years and represents a kind of alternative to brick-and-mortar shopping centres. The main philosophy is to buy several products under one roof. Examples of popular e-commerce marketplaces are Amazon, eBay, and Allegro. Their share of total e-commerce turnover is expected to even double in the coming years. The paper highlights possibilities for testing web applications and online marketplace using emerging methods like stationary eye cameras (eye tracking) and facial analysis (FaceReading).

Keywords: emerging methods, consumer neuroscience, e-commerce, marketplace, user experience, user interface

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Fatima El Zahra Amin, Emine Efe

Abstract:

This study was carried out to evaluate the effect of the education program for parents of children with Sickle Cell Anemia, on the knowledge level of parents and the reduction of pain relief by non-pharmacological methods used by parents at home. In Turkey, 54 parents and 109 from Chad agreed to participate in the survey. The data were collected by the researcher using a face-to-face interview method. Non-pharmacological treatment information form for parents, face expressions rating scale, and parent education program for non-pharmacological methods used in children with sickle cell anemia were used. It was determined that there was a statistically significant difference between the educational status, occupation, disease status, place of residence, family structure and age of parents of Chad and Turkey. According to the ratings of facial expressions scale, it was concluded that there was no significant difference between the children’s average degree of pain before and after administration of non-pharmacological methods by the groups of Chad and Turkey. It was determined that the educational programs prepared for parents of children with sickle cell anemia in both Turkey and Chad were effective in increasing the knowledge level of parents and also in reducing pain crisis with non-pharmacological methods parents used at home.

Keywords: Chad, child, non-pharmacological treatment methods, nurse, sickle cell anemia, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Merve Kucukali Ozturk, Yesim Beceren, Banu Nergis

Abstract:

The study discussed in this paper was conducted in an attempt to investigate effects of different drying methods (line dry and tumble dry) on viscose single jersey fabrics knitted with ring yarn.

Keywords: color change, dimensional properties, drying method, fabric tightness, physical properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Kiyoumars Roushangar, Saeid Sadaghian

Abstract:

Although accurate sediment load prediction is very important in planning, designing, operating and maintenance of water resources structures, the transport mechanism is complex, and the deterministic transport models are based on simplifying assumptions often lead to large prediction errors. In this research, firstly, two intelligent ANN methods, Radial Basis and General Regression Neural Networks, are adopted to model of total sediment load transport into Madani Dam reservoir (north of Iran) using the measured data and then applicability of the sediment transport methods developed by Engelund and Hansen, Ackers and White, Yang, and Toffaleti for predicting of sediment load discharge are evaluated. Based on comparison of the results, it is found that the GRNN model gives better estimates than the sediment rating curve and mentioned classic methods.

Keywords: sediment transport, dam reservoir, RBF, GRNN, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: E. Batista, R. Mendes, A. Furtado, M. C. Ferreira, I. Godinho, J. A. Sousa, M. Alvares, R. Martins

Abstract:

Syringe pumps are commonly used for drug delivery in hospitals and clinical environments. These instruments are critical in neonatology and oncology, where any variation in the flow rate and drug dosing quantity can lead to severe incidents and even death of the patient. Therefore it is very important to determine the accuracy and precision of these devices using the suitable calibration methods. The Volume Laboratory of the Portuguese Institute for Quality (LVC/IPQ) uses two different methods to calibrate syringe pumps from 16 nL/min up to 20 mL/min. The Interferometric method uses an interferometer to monitor the distance travelled by a pusher block of the syringe pump in order to determine the flow rate. Therefore, knowing the internal diameter of the syringe with very high precision, the travelled distance, and the time needed for that travelled distance, it was possible to calculate the flow rate of the fluid inside the syringe and its uncertainty. As an alternative to the gravimetric and the interferometric method, a methodology based on the application of optical technology was also developed to measure flow rates. Mainly this method relies on measuring the increase of volume of a drop over time. The objective of this work is to compare the results of the calibration of two syringe pumps using the different methodologies described above. The obtained results were consistent for the three methods used. The uncertainties values were very similar for all the three methods, being higher for the optical drop method due to setup limitations.

Keywords: calibration, flow, interferometry, syringe pump, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Fernanda Varella Borges, Silvio Burrattino Melhado

Abstract:

Motivated by the importance of public infrastructure projects in the civil construction chain, this research shows the study of project management methods and the infrastructure projects’ characteristics. The research aims at the objective of improving management efficiency by proposing guidelines for the application of project management methods in infrastructure projects. Through literature review and case studies, the research analyses two major infrastructure projects underway in Brazil, identifying the critical points for achieving its success. As a result, the proposed guidelines indicate that special attention should be given to the management of stakeholders, focusing on their knowledge and experience, their different interests, the efficient management of their communication, and their behavior in the day-by-day project management process.

Keywords: construction, infrastructure, project management, public projects

Procedia PDF Downloads 496

Authors: Pınar Karbuz, A. Seyhun Kıpcak, Mehmet B. Piskin, Emek Derun, Nurcan Tugrul

Abstract:

Pectin is a complex colloidal polysaccharide, found on the cell walls of all young plants such as fruit and vegetables. It acts as a thickening, stabilizing and gelling agent in foods. Pectin was extracted from mandarin and lemon peels using ultrasound and microwave assisted extraction methods to compare with these two different sources and methods of pectin production. In this work, the effect of microwave power (360, 600 W) and irradiation time (1, 2, 3 min) on the yield of extracted pectin from mandarin and lemon peels for microwave assisted extraction (MAE) were investigated. For ultrasound assisted extraction (UAE), parameters were determined as temperature (60, 75 °C) and sonication time (15, 30, 45 min) and hydrochloric acid (HCl) was used as an extracting agent for both extraction methods. The highest yields of extracted pectin from lemon peels were found to be 8.16 % (w/w) for 75 °C, 45 min by UAE and 8.58 % (w/w) for 360 W, 1 min by MAE. Additionally, the highest yields of extracted pectin from mandarin peels were found to be 11.29 % (w/w) for 75 °C, 45 min by UAE and 16.44 % (w/w) for 600 W, 1 min by MAE. The results showed that the use of microwave assisted extraction promoted a better yield when compared to the two extraction methods. On the other hand, according to the results of experiments, mandarin peels contain more pectin than lemon peels when the compared to the pectin product values of two sources. Therefore, these results suggested that MAE could be used as an efficient and rapid method for extraction of pectin and mandarin peels should be preferred as sources of pectin production compared to lemon peels.

Keywords: mandarin peel, lemon peel, pectin, ultrasound, microwave, extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Mustafa Gok, Sair Kahraman, Mustafa Fener

Abstract:

In rock engineering applications, determining uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), and basic index properties such as density, porosity, and water absorption is crucial for the design of both underground and surface structures. However, obtaining reliable samples for direct testing, especially from rocks that weather quickly and have low strength, is often challenging. In such cases, indirect methods provide a practical alternative to estimate the physical and mechanical properties of these rocks. In this study, tuff samples collected from the Cappadocia region (Nevşehir) in Turkey were subjected to indirect testing methods. Over 100 tests were conducted, using needle penetrometer index (NPI), point load strength index (PLI), and disc shear index (BPI) to estimate the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), density, and water absorption index of the tuffs. The relationships between the results of these indirect tests and the target physical properties were evaluated using simple and multiple regression analyses. The findings of this research reveal strong correlations between the indirect methods and the mechanical properties of the tuffs. Both uniaxial compressive strength and Brazilian tensile strength could be accurately predicted using NPI, PLI, and BPI values. The regression models developed in this study allow for rapid, cost-effective assessments of tuff strength in cases where direct testing is impractical. These results are particularly valuable for geological engineering applications, where time and resource constraints exist. This study highlights the significance of using indirect methods as reliable predictors of the mechanical behavior of weak rocks like tuffs. Further research is recommended to explore the application of these methods to other rock types with similar characteristics. Further research is required to compare the results with those of established direct test methods.

Keywords: brazilian tensile strength, disc shear strength, indirect methods, tuffs, uniaxial compressive strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 19

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Etienne Alain Feukeu, L. W. Snyman

Abstract:

Water scarcity is becoming a real issue nowadays. Most countries in the world are facing it in their own way based on their own geographical coordinate and condition. Many countries are facing a challenge of a growing water demand as a result of not only an increased population, economic growth, but also as a pressure of the population dynamic and urbanization. In view to mitigate some of this related problem, an accurate method of water estimation and future prediction, forecast is essential to guarantee not only the sufficient quantity, but also a good water distribution and management system. Beside the fact that several works have been undertaken to address this concern, there is still a considerable disparity between different methods and standard used for water prediction and estimation. Hence this work contrast and compare two well-defined and established methods from two countries (USA and South Africa) to demonstrate the inconsistency when different method and standards are used interchangeably.

Keywords: water scarcity, water estimation, water prediction, water forecast.

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Jamerson Felipe Pereira Lima, Jeane Cecília Bezerra de Melo

Abstract:

The difficulty and cost related to obtaining of protein tertiary structure information through experimental methods, such as X-ray crystallography or NMR spectroscopy, helped raising the development of computational methods to do so. An approach used in these last is prediction of tridimensional structure based in the residue chain, however, this has been proved an NP-hard problem, due to the complexity of this process, explained by the Levinthal paradox. An alternative solution is the prediction of intermediary structures, such as the secondary structure of the protein. Artificial Intelligence methods, such as Bayesian statistics, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), among others, were used to predict protein secondary structure. Due to its good results, artificial neural networks have been used as a standard method to predict protein secondary structure. Recent published methods that use this technique, in general, achieved a Q3 accuracy between 75% and 83%, whereas the theoretical accuracy limit for protein prediction is 88%. Alternatively, to achieve better results, support vector machines prediction methods have been developed. The statistical evaluation of methods that use different AI techniques, such as ANNs and SVMs, for example, is not a trivial problem, since different training sets, validation techniques, as well as other variables can influence the behavior of a prediction method. In this study, we propose a prediction method based on artificial neural networks, which is then compared with a selected SVM method. The chosen SVM protein secondary structure prediction method is the one proposed by Huang in his work Extracting Physico chemical Features to Predict Protein Secondary Structure (2013). The developed ANN method has the same training and testing process that was used by Huang to validate his method, which comprises the use of the CB513 protein data set and three-fold cross-validation, so that the comparative analysis of the results can be made comparing directly the statistical results of each method.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, protein secondary structure, protein structure prediction, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 622

Authors: Mehmet Akoz, Mustafa Kul

Abstract:

Ewes and goats are seasonally polyestrus animals. Their reproductive activities are associated with the reduction or extending of daylight. Melatonin releasing from pineal gland regulates the sexual activities depending on daylight. In recent years, number of ewes decreased in our country. This situation dispatched to developing of some methods to increase productivity. Small ruminants can be synchronized with the natural and medical methods. known methods from natural light set with ram and goat participation. The most important natural methods of male influence, daylight is regulated and feed. On the other hand, progestagens, PGF2α, melatonin, and gonadotropins are commonly used for the purpose of estrus synchranization. But it is not effective PGF2α anestrous season The short-term and long-term progesterone treatment was effective to synchronize estrus in small ruminats during both breeding and anestrus seasons. Alternative choices of progesterone/progestagen have been controlled internal drug release (CIDR) devices, supplying natural progesterone, norgestomet implants, and orally active melengestrol acetate Melatonin anestrous season and should be applied during the transition period, but the season can be synchronized. Estrus synchronisation shortens anestrus season, decreases labor for mating/insemination and estrus pursuit, and induces multiple pregnancies.

Keywords: ewes, goat, synchronization, progestagen, PGF2α

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Reza Mohammadi

Abstract:

Using quartic spline, we develop a method for numerical solution of singularly perturbed two-point boundary-value problems. The purposed method is fourth-order accurate and applicable to problems both in singular and non-singular cases. The convergence analysis of the method is given. The resulting linear system of equations has been solved by using a tri-diagonal solver. We applied the presented method to test problems which have been solved by other existing methods in references, for comparison of presented method with the existing methods. Numerical results are given to illustrate the efficiency of our methods.

Keywords: second-order ordinary differential equation, singularly-perturbed, quartic spline, convergence analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Mikail Altan

Abstract:

International trust takes first place in the development of foreign trade in the country. They see an important role in ensuring that trust. Various payment methods that are developed in the banking system provide fast and reliable way to execution and promote foreign trade by financing the foreign trade. In this study, we investigate the influence of bank on foreign trade in Turkey. 26 years of data for 1990-2015 period have been used in this study. After correlation analysis, a simple regression model was established. Payment methods that are developed in the banking system make a positive contribution in Turkey’s foreign trade volume. In addition, the export of Turkey was affected positively more than import’s by these payment methods.

Keywords: banks, export, foreign trade, import

Procedia PDF Downloads 358