Search results for: health risk factors

Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: Kadiri Kayode Ibrahim

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Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) play significant roles in the economic development of Nigeria. However, the performance of these SMEs is influenced by various factors, including cultural factors. Keffi Local Government Area (LGA) in Nasarawa State, Nigeria, has a large number of registered SMEs. Understanding the impact of cultural factors on the performance of these SMEs in Keffi LGA is essential for their growth and sustainability. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of cultural factors on the performance of selected SMEs in Keffi LGA, Nasarawa State. A cross-sectional survey research design was used to collect data from 165 purposefully selected SME owners out of the 283 registered SMEs in Keffi LGA. The data was collected using a questionnaire divided into three sections, and analysed using descriptive and ordinary least square regression (OLS). The results indicate that socio-cultural factors and ethical values have a positive and significant effect on the performance of SMEs in Keffi LGA, while attitude has a negative and significant effect on the performance of SMEs in Keffi LGA. Therefore, the study recommends that SMEs in Keffi LGA should understand the socio-cultural elements of their operating environment, adopt socio-cultural factors as elements to guide their planning and strategizing and take into consideration the ethical values of the business environment when offering new products or services. Additionally, SME Managers should take cognisance of people’s attitudes and use them to gauge their activities and ensure they support the overall performance of the business.

Keywords: cultural, factors, performance, SMEs

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Authors: Mohammed Aljoma, Eblal Zakzok

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Safety is a science that seeks to protect and avoid humans from risks in any field and prevent losses in properties and lives as much as possible. On the other hand, occupational safety goals aim to protect workers from risks which can occur during work execution. The main purpose of occupational safety is to ultimately protect people, properties and the environment by reducing accidents and injuries that may cause losses and damages. To achieve this goal, we must remove the direct and indirect reasons which cause accidents and injuries; some of the reasons of accidents are the unsafe cases and inept behavior or both of them. This research focuses on the manner of providing instant protection from the very first beginning to people, properties and the environment by: -Inserting safety demands in the planning and designing works by identifying risk levels in every task of the project, -Using a new risk managing system or modifying or changing a previously-used one.

Keywords: planning, scheduling, risk management, project duration, site safety

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Authors: Wanda Luen-Wun Siu, Xiaowen Zhang

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The COVID-19 pandemic has presented an opportune time for China to deploy its health diplomacy around the world. This paper focused on China’s health diplomacy along the path of its Health Silk Road, with particular emphasis on the Middle East and Europe amid COVID-19. This paper employed a retrospective literature review, analyzed China’s health diplomacy in such regions to cultivate bilateral and multilateral relationships. And findings argued that such health diplomacy is a success, and Beijing has assumed a leadership role in the world’s health governance. This research contributes to the literature in health diplomacy and suggests that amid the ever changing international order, China has exerted great effort in its health diplomacy and established itself as a responsible world power.

Keywords: china’s health silk road, COVID-19, europe, middle east

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Authors: Abdullah S. Alghamdi, Khaled Alghamdi, Richard O. Jenkins, Parvez I. Haris

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Background: Quantity and quality of sleep have been reported to be significant risk factors for obesity and development of metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The relationship between diabetes and sleep quantity was reported to be U-shaped, which means increased or decreased sleeping hours can increase the risk of diabetes. The plasma glucagon levels were found to continuously decrease during night-time sleep in healthy individuals, independently of blood glucose and insulin levels. The disturbance of the circadian rhythm is also important and has been linked with an increased the chance of diabetes incidence. There is a lack of research on sleep patterns on Saudis with T2DM and how this is affected by Ramadan fasting. Aim: To assess the sleeping patterns of Saudis with T2DM (before, during, and after Ramadan), using two different techniques and relate this to their HbA1c levels. Method: This study recruited 82 Saudi with T2DM, who chose to fast during Ramadan, from the Endocrine and Diabetic Centre of Al Iman General Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Ethical approvals for the study were obtained from De Montfort University and Saudi Ministry of Health. Their sleeping patterns were assessed by a self-administered questionnaire (before, during, and after Ramadan). The assessment included the daily total sleeping hours (DTSH), and total night-time sleeping hours (TNTSH) of the participants. In addition, sleeping patterns of 36 patients, randomly selected from the 82 participants, were further tracked during and after Ramadan by using Fitbit Flex 2™ accelerometer. Blood samples were collected in each period for measuring HbA1c. Results: Questionnaire analysis revealed that the sleeping patterns significantly changed between the periods, with shorter hours during Ramadan (P < 0.001 for DTSH, and P < 0.001 for TNTSH). These findings were confirmed by the Fitbit data, which also indicated significant shorter sleeping hours for the DTSH, and the TNTSH during Ramadan (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). Although there were no significant correlations between the questionnaire and Fitbit data, the TNTSH were shorter among the participants in all periods by both techniques. The mean HbA1c significantly varied between periods, with lowest level during Ramadan. Although the statistical tests did not show significant variances in the mean HbA1c between the groups of participants regarding their hours of sleeping, the lowest mean HbA1c was observed in the group of participants who slept for 6-8 hours and had longer night-time sleeping hours. Conclusion: A short sleep duration, and absence of night-time sleep were significantly observed among the majority of the study population during Ramadan, which could suppress the full benefits of Ramadan fasting for diabetic patients. This study showed that there is a good agreement between the findings of the questionnaire and the Fitbit device for evaluating sleeping patterns in a Saudi population. A larger study is needed in the future to investigate the impact of Ramadan fasting on sleep quality and quantity and its relationship with health and disease.

Keywords: Diabetes, Fasting, Fitbit, HbA1c, IPAQ, Ramadan, Sleep

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Authors: Ni'mal Baroya, Andrei Ramani, Irma Prasetyowati

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The access to reproduction health services, including with safe and effective contraception were human rights regardless of social stratum and residence. In addition to individual factors, family and contextual factors were also believed to be the cause in the use of contraceptive methods. This study aimed to assess the determinants of long-term contraceptive methods (LTCM) by considering all the factors at either the individual level or contextual level. Thereby, this study could provide basic information for program development of prevalence enhancement of MKJP in East Java. The research, which used cross-sectional design, utilized Riskesdas 2013 data, particularly in East Java Province for further analysis about multilevel modeling of MKJP application. The sample of this study consisted of 20.601 married women who were not in pregnant that were drawn by using probability sampling following the sampling technique of Riskesdas 2013. Variables in this study were including the independent variables at the individual level that consisted of education, age, occupation, access to family planning services (KB), economic status and residence. As independent variables in district level were the Human Development Index (HDI, henceforth as IPM) in each districts of East Java Province, the ratio of field officers, the ratio of midwives, the ratio of community health centers and the ratio of doctors. As for the dependent variable was the use of Long-Term Contraceptive Method (LTCM or MKJP). The data were analyzed by using chi-square test and Pearson product moment correlation. The multivariable analysis was using multilevel logistic regression with 95% of Confidence Interval (CI) at the significance level of p < 0.05 and 80% of strength test. The results showed a low CPR LTCM was concentrated in districts in Madura Island and the north coast. The women which were 25 to 35 or more than 35 years old, at least high school education, working, and middle-class social status were more likely to use LTCM or MKJP. The IPM and low PLKB ratio had implications for poor CPR LTCM / MKJP.

Keywords: multilevel, long-term contraceptive methods, east java, contextual factor

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Authors: P. Priyanka, S. Shruthi, N. Guruprasad

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Health is a common theme in most cultures. In fact all communities have their concepts of health, as part of their culture. Health continues to be a neglected entity. Planning of Human diet should be done very careful by selecting the food items or groups of food items also the composition involved. Low price and good taste of foods are regarded as two major factors for optimal human nutrition. Linear programming techniques have been extensively used for human diet formulation for quiet good number of years. Through the process, we mainly apply “The Simplex Method” which is a very useful statistical tool based on the theorem of Elementary Row Operation from Linear Algebra and also incorporate some other necessary rules set by the Simplex Method to help solve the problem. The study done by us is an attempt to develop a programming model for optimal planning and best use of nutrient ingredients.

Keywords: diet formulation, linear programming, nutrient ingredients, optimization, simplex method

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Authors: Minwuyelet Maru, Solomon Habtemariam, Endalamaw Gadissa, Abraham Aseffa

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Background: Tuberculosis is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. The burden of TB is aggravated by emergence and expansion of drug resistant tuberculosis and different lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) have been reported in many parts of the country. Describing strains of Mycobacterial isolates and drug susceptibility pattern is necessary. Method: Sputum samples were collected from smear positive pulmonary TB patients age >= 7 years between October 1, 2012 to September 30, 2013 and Mycobacterial strains isolated on Loweensten Jensen (LJ) media. Each strain was characterized by deletion typing and Spoligotyping. Drug sensitivity testing was determined with the indirect proportion method using Middle brook 7H10 media and association to determine possible risk factors to drug resistance was done. Result: A total of 144 smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients were enrolled. The age of participants ranged from 7 to 78 with mean age of 29.22 (±10.77) years. In this study 82.2% (n=97) of the isolates were sensitive to the four first line anti-tuberculosis drugs and resistance to any of the four drugs tested was 17.8% (n=21). A high frequency of any resistance was observed in isoniazid, 13.6%, (n=16) followed by streptomycin, 11.8% (n=14). No significant association of isoniazid resistance with HIV, sex and history of previous TB treatment was observed but there was significant association with age, high between 31-35 years of age (p=0.01). Majority, 89.9% (n=128) of participants were new cases and only 11.1% (n=16) had history of previous TB treatment. No MDR-TB from new cases and 2 MDRTB (13.3%) was isolated from re-treatment cases which was significantly associated with previous TB treatment (p<0.01). Thirty two different types of spoligotype patterns were identified and 74.1% were grouped in to 13 clusters. The dominant strains were SIT 25, 18.1% (n=21), SIT 53, 17.2% (n=20) and SIT 149, 8.6% (n=10). Lineage 4 is the predominant lineage followed by lineage 3 and lineage 7 comprising 65.5% (n=76), 28.4% (n=33) and 6% (n=7) respectively. Majority of strains from lineage 3 and 4 were SIT 25 (63.6%) and SIT 53 (26.3%) whereas SIT 343 was the dominant strain from lineage 7 (71.4%). Conclusion: Wide spread of lineage 3 and lineage 4 of the modern lineage and high number of strain cluster indicates high ongoing transmission. The high proportion resistance to any of the first line anti-tuberculosis drugs may be a potential source in the emergence of MDR-TB. Wide spread of SIT 25 and SIT 53 having a tendency of ease transmission and presence of higher resistance of isoniazid in working and mobile age group, 31-35 years of age may increase risk of drug resistant strains transmission.

Keywords: tuberculosis, drug susceptibility, strain diversity, lineage, Ethiopia, spoligotyping

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Authors: Reem I. Altamimi, Geoff D. Skinner

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Extended periods engaged in sedentary behavior increases the risk of becoming overweight and/or obese which is linked to other health problems. Adding technology to the term ‘active living’ permits its inclusion in promoting and facilitating habitual physical activity. Technology can either act as a barrier to, or facilitate this lifestyle, depending on the chosen technology. Physical Activity Monitoring Technologies (PAMTs) are a popular example of such technologies. Different contemporary PAMTs have been evaluated based on customer reviews; however, there is a lack of published experimental research into the efficacy of PAMTs. This research aims to investigate the reliability of four PAMTs: two wristbands (Fitbit Flex and Jawbone UP), a waist-clip (Fitbit One), and a mobile application (iPhone Health Application) for recording a specific distance walked on a treadmill (1.5km) at constant speed. Physical activity tracking technologies are varied in their recordings, even while performing the same activity. This research demonstrates that Jawbone UP band recorded the most accurate distance compared to Fitbit One, Fitbit Flex, and iPhone Health Application.

Keywords: Fitbit, jawbone up, mobile tracking applications, physical activity tracking technologies

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Authors: Maharjan Shree Kumar

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Climate change impacts are observed in all livelihood sectors primarily in agriculture and forestry. Multiple factors have influenced the climate vulnerabilities and adaptations in agricultural at the household level. This study focused on the factors affecting adaptation in agriculture in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Central and Western Nepal. The systematic random sampling technique was applied to select 154 households in Madi and 150 households in Deukhuri. The main purpose of the study was to analyze the socio-economic factors that either influence or restrain the farmers’ adaptation to climate change at the household level by applying the linear probability model. Based on the analysis, it is revealed that crop diversity, education, training and total land holding (acre) were positively significant for adaptation choices the study sites. Rest of the variables were not significant though indicated positive as expected except age, occupation, ethnicity, family size, and access to credit.

Keywords: adaptation, agriculture, climate, factors, Nepal

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Authors: Manjunath A. P., Al-Ajmi G. M., Al Shukri M., Girija S

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Introduction: This study aimed to compare the ability of hysteroscopy and ultrasonography to diagnose uterine polyps. To correlate the ultrasonography and hystroscopic findings with various clinical factors and histopathology of uterine polyps. Methods: This is a retrospective study conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital from 2014 to 2019. All women undergoing hysteroscopy for suspected uterine polyps were included. All relevant data were obtained from the electronic patient record and analysed using SPSS. Results: A total of 77 eligible women were analysed. The mean age of the patients was 40 years. The clinical risk factors; obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, showed no significant statistical association with the presence of uterine polyps (p-value>0.005). Although 20 women (52.6%) with uterine polyps had thickened endometrium (>11 mm), however, there is no statistical association (p-value>0.005). The sensitivity and specificity of ultrasonography in the detection of uterine polyp were 39% and 65%, respectively. Whereas for hysteroscopy, it was 89% and 20%, respectively. The prevalence of malignant and premalignant lesions were 1.85% and 7.4%, respectively. Conclusion: This study found that obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus were not associated with the presence of uterine polyps. There was no association between thick endometrium and uterine polyps. The sensitivity is higher for hysteroscopy, whereas the specificity is higher for sonography in detecting uterine polyps. The prevalence of malignancy was very low in uterine polyps.

Keywords: endometrial polyps, hysteroscopy, ultrasonography, premalignant, malignant

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Authors: Eftekhari M. H., Mozaffari-Khosravi H., Shidfar F.

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Background: Many Iranian adolescent girls are iron deficient, but it is unclear whether the iron deficiency is associated with other nutritional risk indicators. Objective: we aimed to investigate the association between iron deficiency and weight status (measured as BMI) among a reprehensive sample of teenage girls. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in a region of southern I.R.Iran. One hundred eighty-seven iron-deficient participants (aged between 11 to 14) were selected by systematic random sampling among all students in grades 1 to 3 from high schools for girls. We assayed hemoglobin, hematocrit, serum ferritin, iron and total iron binding capacity and measured weight and height. Body mass index was calculated according to age and gender-specific BMI growth charts for children 2 to 20 years of age. Results: 13% were at risk for being overweight and 8.3% were overweight. The severity of iron deficiency increased as BMI increased from normal to at risk for overweight and overweight. Iron deficiency anemia was most prevalent among overweight adolescents than at risk for overweight and normal weight adolescents (28%, 18%, and 13%, respectively). Conclusions: The results of this study showed an inverse association of BMI with serum ferritin. Overweight adolescents demonstrated an increased prevalence of anemia. Because of the potentially harmful effects of iron deficiency, obese adolescents should be routinely screened and treated as necessary.

Keywords: adolescent, over weight, iron deficiency, Iran

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Authors: Gabrielle Veloso, Melanie Porter, Kelsie Boulton, Adam Guastella

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The aim of the current systematic review was to examine child and parent factors and their associations with parent sensitivity towards children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Eight bibliographic databases were used to identify peer-reviewed journal articles examining these associations via quantitative analyses, with parent sensitivity measured via validated and reliable observation coding systems. Thirty-one studies were finalized as having met full criteria for inclusion. The review found agreement across studies that parent sensitivity was positively associated with the child’s initiations and responsiveness toward their parent, with more frequent parent-directed behaviors providing greater opportunity for parents to act and react in sensitive manner. There was also substantial evidence that parent sensitivity predicted later growth in child language ability and child social skills. Other factors such as child attachment, parent insightfulness toward their child, and parent resolution of the diagnosis were also identified across a number of studies as being positively associated with parent sensitivity, however, interpretations of these findings were limited by the absence of covariates identified in the literature as explaining much of the variance in parent sensitivity. With respect to non-significant associations, the literature reliably found that parents showed sensitivity toward their child with ASD, regardless of child age, ASD symptomology, concurrent child social skills, and concurrent child cognitive abilities. The robust associations found in this review and their potential explanations can serve as a jump off point in identifying an understanding protective and risk factors for families of children with ASD. With regard to future directions in research, assessment of the studies’ methodological quality identified points for improvement with respect to the measurement of parent sensitivity, as well as the consideration of several important methodological confounds that may be controlled for in statistical analyses.

Keywords: ASD, autism, parenting, parent sensitivity

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

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The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

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Authors: Rana Praween Kumar

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Preterm-low birth weight delivery is a major cause of infant morbidity and mortality in developing countries and has been linked to poor periodontal health during pregnancy. Gingivitis and chronic periodontitis are highly prevalent chronic inflammatory oral diseases. The detection and diagnosis of these common diseases is a fundamentally important component of oral health care. This study is intended to investigate predisposing and enabling factors as determinants of oral health indicators in pregnancy as well as the association between periodontal problems during pregnancy with age and socio economic status of the individual. A community –based prospective cohort study will be conducted in Jamshedpur, Jharkhand, India among pregnant women using completed interviews and a full mouth oral clinical examination using the CPITN (Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Need) and OHI-S (Simplified Oral Hygiene) indices with adequate sample size and informed consent to the patient following proper inclusion and exclusion criteria. Multiple logistic regression analyses will be used to identify independent determinants of periodontal problems and use of dental services during pregnancy. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) will be used to investigate the relationship between periodontal problems with the age and socioeconomic status. The result will help in proper monitoring of periodontal health during pregnancy encouraging the delivery of healthy child and the maintenance of proper health of the mother.

Keywords: infant, periodontal problems, pregnancy, pre-term-low birth weight delivery

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Authors: M. B. Ahmadi, A. A. Kaffash B., B. Mobaraki

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Slump loss, which refers to the gradual reduction of workability and the amount of slump in fresh concrete over time, is one of the significant challenges in the ready-mixed concrete industry. Therefore, having accurate knowledge of the factors affecting slump loss is a crucial solution in this field. In this paper, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of cement produced by different units on the slump of concrete in a laboratory setting. For this purpose, 12 cement samples were prepared from 6 different production units. Physical and chemical tests were performed on the cement samples. Subsequently, a laboratory concrete mix with a slump of 13 ± 1 cm was prepared with each cement sample, and the slump was measured at 0, 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes. Although the environmental factors, mix design specifications, and execution conditions—factors that significantly influence the slump loss trend—were constant in all 12 laboratory concrete mixes, the slump loss trends differed among them. These trends were categorized based on the results, and the relationship between the slump loss percentage in 60 minutes, the water-cement ratio, and the LOI and K2O values of different cements were introduced.

Keywords: concrete, slump loss, portland cement, efficiency

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Authors: Syed Atif Ali, Farzan Yahya

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This research paper covers the issue of risk management impact on the company performance. Degree of financial leverage (DFL), degree of operating leverage (DOL) and the working capital ratio (WCR) are taken as independent variables which are the representative of risk and the earning price per share (EPS), return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), Sales and Net profits which are the representative of performance. Last 10 years (2004-2013) of Cement sector of Pakistan data is chosen as sample for analyze their relations by multiple regression technique. Through analyses, it is found that WCR impact adequately on the company performance because if company has enough liquidity than it perform its operations smoothly and enhance its performance very well. DFL should be control moderately because enough DFL leads performance of company downward. On the other hand, the DOL should be less because it causes the less profitability for a company from its operations.

Keywords: degree of financial leverage (DFL), degree of operating leverage (DOL), working capital ratio (WCR), earning per share (EPS), return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA)

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Authors: Jabulani Gilford Kheswa, Sinovuyo Takatshana

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Literature documented that the combination of permissive attitudes, sexual experimentation and lack of accurate information from parents to educate male adolescents, poses a threat to the sexual health of adolescent males and exposes them to risky sexual behaviours. Grounded in problem behaviour theory as a theoretical framework for this study in understanding health-related behaviours of adolescent males, the weaker one’s perceived self-efficacy, the more social and affective factors increase the likelihood of risky sexual behaviour, such as alcohol abuse and intimate partner violence. The purpose of this study was to determine the correlation between alcohol use and sexual behaviour among 176 purposively selected Xhosa- speaking adolescent males, from one school in the Nkonkobe Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. These learners were in grade ten, eleven and twelve with an age range from a low of 14 to a high of 25 years. The mean age was 18.06 years while the standard deviation was .144. To be ethically bound, the researchers sought permission from the school principal to distribute self-administered questionnaires and assured the participants of confidentiality and anonymity. A survey was conducted by means of self-administered questionnaires. A cross-sectional study was carried out within the quantitative paradigm using the SPSS version 18 and the Chronbach’s alpha of 0.79 were found for alcohol and sexual behaviour of adolescent males. Findings showed that 59.6% (N=105) of the learners indicated that their caregivers talk about safe sex practice as compared to only 40.4% (N=71) who indicated that their caregivers do not talk to them about safe sex practice. A statistically significant association between alcohol and negotiation of safe sex at p-value of 0.05 (chi-square of 34.529, degree of freedom of 16) was reported. In conclusion, as young people in South Africa become sexually active at an early age, schools should initiate psycho-educational programmes to equip adolescents against risk- behaviours (such as HIV/AIDS, substance abuse, crime).

Keywords: adolescent males, alcohol, parents, sex

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Authors: Ha Hai Duong, Amnon Levy Livermore, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, Oleg Yerokhin

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The issues of economic development, the environment and human health have been investigated since 1990s. Previous researchers have found different empirical evidences of the relationship between income and environmental pollution, health as determinant of economic growth, and the effects of income and environmental pollution on health in various regions of the world. This paper concentrates on integrative relationship analysis of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and health services and population health in context of Vietnam. We applied the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on datasets of Vietnam’s sixty-three provinces for the years 2000-2010. Our results show the significant positive effect of GDP on emissions and the dependence of population health on emissions and health services. We find the significant relationship between population health and GDP. Additionally, health services are significantly affected by population health and GDP. Finally, the population size too is other important determinant of both emissions and GDP.

Keywords: economic development, emissions, environmental pollution, health

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Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

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The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point Likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: climate change, risk perceptions, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Ashutosh Bagchi, Osama Moselhi

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Structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, wind turbines etc. need to be maintained against various factors such as deterioration, excessive loads, environment, temperature, etc. Choosing an appropriate monitoring system is important for determining any critical damage to a structure and address that to avoid any adverse consequence. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) has emerged as an effective technique to monitor the health of the structures. SHM refers to an ongoing structural performance assessment using different kinds of sensors attached to or embedded in the structures to evaluate their integrity and safety to help engineers decide on rehabilitation measures. Ability of SHM in identifying the location and severity of structural damages by considering any changes in characteristics of the structures such as their frequency, stiffness and mode shapes helps engineers to monitor the structures and take the most effective corrective actions to maintain their safety and extend their service life. The main objective of this study is to review the overall SHM process specifically determining the natural frequency of an instrumented simply-supported concrete beam using modal testing and finite element model updating.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, natural frequency, modal analysis, finite element model updating

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Authors: Huimin Liu, Li Xiang, Yue Liu, Jing Wang

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Background: As one of typical case for the developing countries who are stepping into the aging times globally, more and more older people in China might face the problem of which they could not maintain normal life due to the functional disability. While the government take efforts to build long-term care system and further carry out related policies for the core concept, there is still lack of strong evidence to evaluating the profile of disability states in the elderly population and its transition rate. It has been proved that disability is a dynamic condition of the person rather than irreversible so it means possible to intervene timely on them who might be in a risk of severe disability. Objective: The aim of this study was to depict the picture of the disability transferring status of the older people in China, and then find out individual characteristics that change the state of disability to provide theory basis for disability prevention and early intervention among elderly people. Methods: Data for this study came from the 2011 baseline survey and the 2013 follow-up survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Normal ADL function, 1~2 ADLs disability,3 or above ADLs disability and death were defined from state 1 to state 4. Multi-state Markov model was applied and the four-state homogeneous model with discrete states and discrete times from two visits follow-up data was constructed to explore factors for various progressive stages. We modeled the effect of explanatory variables on the rates of transition by using a proportional intensities model with covariate, such as gender. Result: In the total sample, state 2 constituent ratio is nearly about 17.0%, while state 3 proportion is blow the former, accounting for 8.5%. Moreover, ADL disability statistics difference is not obvious between two years. About half of the state 2 in 2011 improved to become normal in 2013 even though they get elder. However, state 3 transferred into the proportion of death increased obviously, closed to the proportion back to state 2 or normal functions. From the estimated intensities, we see the older people are eleven times as likely to develop at 1~2 ADLs disability than dying. After disability onset (state 2), progression to state 3 is 30% more likely than recovery. Once in state 3, a mean of 0.76 years is spent before death or recovery. In this model, a typical person in state 2 has a probability of 0.5 of disability-free one year from now while the moderate disabled or above has a probability of 0.14 being dead. Conclusion: On the long-term care cost considerations, preventive programs for delay the disability progression of the elderly could be adopted based on the current disabled state and main factors of each stage. And in general terms, those focusing elderly individuals who are moderate or above disabled should go first.

Keywords: Markov model, elderly people, disability, transition intensity

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Authors: Taleb Lotfi, Benarbia Maheidine, Allam Hamza, Boutira Fatima, Boukerche Abdelbaki

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Introduction and purpose of the study: This is a retrospective single-center study with an analytical aim to determine the prognostic factors for relapse in patients treated with radiotherapy after total laryngectomy with lymph node dissection for laryngeal cancer at the Emir Abdelkader cancer center in Oran (Algeria). Material and methods: During the study period from January 2014 to December 2018, eighty-nine patients (n=89) with squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx were treated with postoperative radiotherapy. Relapse-free survival was studied in the univariate analysis according to pre-treatment criteria using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. We performed a univariate analysis to identify relapse factors. Statistically significant factors have been studied in the multifactorial analysis according to the Cox model. Results and statistical analysis: The average age was 62.7 years (40-86 years). It was a squamous cell carcinoma in all cases. Postoperatively, the tumor was classified as pT3 and pT4 in 93.3% of patients. Histological lymph node involvement was found in 36 cases (40.4%), with capsule rupture in 39% of cases, while the limits of surgical excision were microscopically infiltrated in 11 patients (12.3%). Chemotherapy concomitant with radiotherapy was used in 67.4% of patients. With a median follow-up of 57 months (23 to 104 months), the probabilities of relapse-free survival and five-year overall survival are 71.2% and 72.4%, respectively. The factors correlated with a high risk of relapse were locally advanced tumor stage pT4 (p=0.001), tumor site in case of subglottic extension (p=0.0003), infiltrated surgical limits R1 (p=0.001), l lymph node involvement (p=0.002), particularly in the event of lymph node capsular rupture (p=0.0003) as well as the time between surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy (p=0.001). However, in the subgroup analysis, the major prognostic factors for disease-free survival were subglottic tumor extension (p=0.001) and time from surgery to adjuvant radiotherapy (p=0.005). Conclusion: Combined surgery and postoperative radiation therapy are effective treatment modalities in the management of laryngeal cancer. Close cooperation of the entire cervicofacial oncology team is essential, expressed during a multidisciplinary consultation meeting, with the need to respect the time between surgery and radiotherapy.

Keywords: laryngeal cancer, laryngectomy, postoperative radiotherapy, survival

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Authors: Perpetua Modjadji, Sphiwe Madiba

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Background: The growth patterns of children are good nutritional indicators of their nutritional status, health, and socioeconomic level. However, the maternal factors and the belief system of the society affect the growth of children promoting undernutrition. This study determined the influence of maternal factors on growth patterns of schoolchildren in a rural site. Methods: A convergent mixed method study was conducted among 508 schoolchildren and their mothers in Dikgale Health and Demographic Surveillance System Site, South Africa. Multistage sampling was used to select schools (purposive) and learners (random), who were paired with their mothers. Anthropometry was measured and socio-demographic, obstetrical, household information, maternal influence on children’s nutrition, and growth were assessed using an interviewer administered questionnaire (quantitative). The influence of the cultural beliefs and practices of mothers on the nutrition and growth of their children was explored using focus group discussions (qualitative). Narratives of mothers were used to best understand growth patterns of schoolchildren (mixed method). Data were analyzed using STATA 14 (quantitative) and Nvivo 11 (qualitative). Quantitative and qualitative data were merged for integrated mixed method analysis using a joint display analysis. Results: Mean age of children was 10 ± 2 years, ranging from 6 to 15 years. Substantial percentages of thinness (25%), underweight (24%), and stunting (22%) were observed among the children. Mothers had a mean age of 37 ± 7 years, and 75% were overweight or obese. A depressed socio-economic status indicated by a higher rate of unemployment with no income (82.3%), and dependency on social grants (86.8%) was observed. Determinants of poor growth patterns were child’s age and gender, maternal age, height and BMI, access to water supply, and refrigerator use. The narratives of mothers suggested that the children in most of their households were exposed to poverty and the inadequate intake of quality food. Conclusion: Poor growth patterns were observed among schoolchildren while their mothers were overweight or obese. Child’s gender, school grade, maternal body mass index, and access to water were the main determinants. Congruence was observed between most qualitative themes and quantitative constructs. A need for a multi sectoral approach considering an evidence based and feasible nutrition programs for schoolchildren, especially those in rural settings and educating mothers, cannot be over-emphasized.

Keywords: growth patterns, maternal factors, rural context, schoolchildren, South Africa

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Authors: Tochukwu Timothy Okoli, Devi Datt Tewari

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The high rate of Fintech adoption has not transmitted to greater financial inclusion and development in Africa. This problem is attributed to poor Fintech diversification and usefulness in the continent. This concept is referred to as the Fintech depth of penetration in this study. The study, therefore, assessed its determinants and growth process in a panel of three emergings, twenty-four frontiers and five fragile African economies disaggregated with dummies over the period 2004-2018 to allow for heterogeneity between groups. The System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique reveals that the average depth of Mobile banking and automated teller machine (ATM) is a dynamic heterogeneity process. Moreover, users' previous experiences/compatibility, trial-ability/income, and financial development were the major factors that raise its usefulness, whereas perceived risk, financial openness, and inflation rate significantly limit its usefulness. The growth rate of Mobile banking, ATM, and Internet banking in 2018 is, on average 41.82, 0.4, and 20.8 per cent respectively greater than its average rates in 2004. These greater averages after the 2009 financial crisis suggest that countries resort to Fintech as a risk-mitigating tool. This study, therefore, recommends greater Fintech diversification through improved literacy, institutional development, financial liberalization, and continuous innovation.

Keywords: depth of fintech, emerging Africa, financial technology, internet banking, mobile banking

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Authors: Wanda Luen-Wun Siu, Xiaowen Zhang

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The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused great difficulties for South-South cooperation, but there are also opportunities. China’s health diplomacy has changed from dispatching medical teams, assisting in the construction of hospitals, and encouraging medical investment in the Africa health sector. This paper adopted a retrospective review of China’s health diplomacy in Africa from 1963 to 2020. Findings suggested that China has a preference for aiding Africa health infrastructure and sending medical teams to African countries. China’s health diplomacy in Africa is a success and has established secure diplomatic relations with African countries, thanks to the medical and health assistance to Africa over 60 years. This research contributes to the literature of health diplomacy and foreign relations and indicates that China’s health aid has fostered cooperation at the medical and diplomatic levels.

Keywords: Africa, china’s health diplomacy, COVID-19, bilateral relations

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects

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Authors: Ayubova Nargiza Mirzabixulaevna, Kiryakov Dmitriy Andreyevich

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Relevance: According to experts from the World Health Organization, in 80% of cases, the causes of skin cancer are external factors: polluted air, radioactive substances, solar flares, and free radicals. In dermatology, one of the most common related to obligate diseases is actinic keratosis. Actinic keratosis (AC) is an area of abnormal proliferation and differentiation of keratinocytes, which carry the risk of progression into invasive squamous cell carcinoma of the skin. The purpose of the study is to study the prevalence of various forms of actinic keratosis among the population of Uzbekistan. Materials and methods of research: The study is based on the observation and clinical laboratory examination of 96 patients who were divided by gender and age. Women made up 45% and men made up 55%. The youngest patient was 43 years old, and the oldest was 92 years old. The control group consisted of 40 patients. The following clinical signs were evaluated: peeling, hyperkeratosis, erythema, pigmentation, atrophy. Results: Studies have shown that of all forms of actinic keratosis, erythematous (36%), hyperkeratotic (27%), pigmented (12%), cutaneous horn (7.0%), atrophic (7.0%), Actinic cheilitis (6%), lichenoid (5%) are common. Conclusion: Thus, the data we have obtained indicate that the main and pronounced clinical sign in the erythematous form is erythema and the hyperkeratic form is often found. With cutaneous horn, there is a sharp hyperkeratosis of the epidermis.

Keywords: actinic keratosis, patient, skin cancer, obligate diseases

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Authors: Yozna Gurung

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This paper presents preliminary findings from an on-going study on the use of Internal State Terms (IST) in the production of narratives of Hindi-English bilinguals in an attempt to identify children at risk for Specific Language Impairment. Narratives were examined for macrostructure (story structure and story complexity) and internal state terms or mental state terms (IST/MST). 31 students generated stories based on six pictures that were matched for content and story structure in L1 (Hindi) and L2 (English) using a wordless picture narrative. From 30 sample population, 2 students are at risk of Specific Language Impairment, according to this study i.e 6.45%. They showed least development in story grammar as well as IST in both their languages.

Keywords: internal state terms, macrostructure, specific language impairment, wordless picture narrative

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Authors: Asaad Pireh

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The Zagros fold and thrust belt is one of the most active seismic zones of Iran where hosts many people and considerable oil and gas resources. The Zagros fold and thrust belt, based on its stratigraphy has been divided into three provinces. Mechanical stratigraphy of these provinces is different together. Statistical analyses all of earthquakes which has happened in the Zagros fold and thrust belt from 1964 up to December 2014, shows that strong earthquakes have occurred within the southeastern part of these subdivisions which has a smaller ratio of incompetent to competent thickness and in the northwestern part of these subdivisions which has a greater ratio of incompetent to competent thickness has occurred the weakest earthquakes. The southeastern part of the Zagros has a higher seismic risk and northwestern part of these fold belt have a lower seismic risk.

Keywords: earthquake, mechanical stratigraphy, seismic risk, Zagros

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