Search results for: national security hazards
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7346

Search results for: national security hazards

5456 Artificial Intelligence Impact on Strategic Stability

Authors: Darius Jakimavicius

Abstract:

Artificial intelligence is the subject of intense debate in the international arena, identified both as a technological breakthrough and as a component of the strategic stability effect. Both the kinetic and non-kinetic development of AI and its application in the national strategies of the great powers may trigger a change in the security situation. Artificial intelligence is generally faster, more capable and more efficient than humans, and there is a temptation to transfer decision-making and control responsibilities to artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence, which, once activated, can select and act on targets without further intervention by a human operator, blurs the boundary between human or robot (machine) warfare, or perhaps human and robot together. Artificial intelligence acts as a force multiplier that speeds up decision-making and reaction times on the battlefield. The role of humans is increasingly moving away from direct decision-making and away from command and control processes involving the use of force. It is worth noting that the autonomy and precision of AI systems make the process of strategic stability more complex. Deterrence theory is currently in a phase of development in which deterrence is undergoing further strain and crisis due to the complexity of the evolving models enabled by artificial intelligence. Based on the concept of strategic stability and deterrence theory, it is appropriate to develop further research on the development and impact of AI in order to assess AI from both a scientific and technical perspective: to capture a new niche in the scientific literature and academic terminology, to clarify the conditions for deterrence, and to identify the potential uses, impacts and possibly quantities of AI. The research problem is the impact of artificial intelligence developed by great powers on strategic stability. This thesis seeks to assess the impact of AI on strategic stability and deterrence principles, with human exclusion from the decision-making and control loop as a key axis. The interaction between AI and human actions and interests can determine fundamental changes in great powers' defense and deterrence, and the development and application of AI-based great powers strategies can lead to a change in strategic stability.

Keywords: artificial inteligence, strategic stability, deterrence theory, decision making loop

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5455 Effect of Education and Occupation on Smokeless Tobacco Use: A Study of Male Adults in India

Authors: Ramu Rawat

Abstract:

Background: This paper is an effort to analyze the role of education and occupation as critical determinants in using smokeless tobacco among male adults in India and its selected states. Methodology: Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) India 2009-10 data have been used for this study. Bivariate and Multivariate (Cox proportion hazards model) analyses are carried out to measure the impact of education and occupation on use of smokeless tobacco among male adults in India. Results and Conclusion: The study evidently suggests that, majority of Indian male adults are using Khaini and Gutkha (local names for smokeless tobacco). The analysis also shows that education and occupation are two important critical predictors of use of smokeless tobacco. The males at younger age with no or little education from rural area use smokeless tobacco more than their counterpart group from urban areas. This distinction can be attributable to their lack of knowledge or ignorance about the consequences of tobacco consumption. Place of residence played significant role for declining use of smokeless tobacco along with the effect of society. Society awareness about harmful effects of smokeless tobacco with local level government may play important role for controlling the use of any type of tobacco or tobacco products in India.

Keywords: smokeless tobacco, male, Khaini, education, occupation

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5454 Improved of Elliptic Curves Cryptography over a Ring

Authors: Abdelhakim Chillali, Abdelhamid Tadmori, Muhammed Ziane

Abstract:

In this article we will study the elliptic curve defined over the ring An and we define the mathematical operations of ECC, which provides a high security and advantage for wireless applications compared to other asymmetric key cryptosystem.

Keywords: elliptic curves, finite ring, cryptography, study

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5453 New Media and Social Media Laws and Ethics in United Arab Emirates

Authors: Ahmed Farouk Radwan, Sheren Mousa

Abstract:

There are many laws and regulations governing the use of new and social media in the United Arab Emirates. During the past few years, the importance of using these platforms in the fields of media and government communication has increased, as well as at the level of individual use. In 2016, the National Media Council Law was issued to regulate traditional and new media field, and gave the council the power to oversee and undertake the media affairs in the state. NMC is mandated to: Develop the UAE’s media policy, Draft media legislation and ensure its execution and Prohibited media content ,Co-ordinate the media policy between the emirates in line with the UAE’s domestic and foreign policy, Ensure support for the federation and project national unity. All media organizations in the UAE must comply with the regulations and rules issued by council. Social media influencers have to be licensed by NMC if they accept paid ads to be published on their accounts. The study explores other laws concerning of new media and social media regulations and ethics including Combatting Cybercrimes law, Combating Discrimination and Hatred law, The Government Guidelines for social media users in the UAE, The Guidelines for the practices of electronic participation and social networking, Copyright Law, and Child Rights Law. The study clarifies the legal articles, items and standards in all these laws which related with the new media and social platforms and also determines the prohibited digital practices and the cultural norms governing it.

Keywords: media laws, media ethics, new media , UAE

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5452 Gender Perspective in Peace Operations: An Analysis of 14 UN Peace Operations

Authors: Maressa Aires de Proenca

Abstract:

The inclusion of a gender perspective in peace operations is based on a series of conventions, treaties, and resolutions designed to protect and include women addressing gender mainstreaming. The UN Security Council recognizes that women's participation and gender equality within peace operations are indispensable for achieving sustainable development and peace. However, the participation of women in the field of peace and security is still embryonic. There are gaps when we think about female participation in conflict resolution and peace promotion spaces, and it does not seem clear how women are present in these spaces. This absence may correspond to silence about representation and the guarantee of the female perspective within the context of peace promotion. Thus, the present research aimed to describe the panorama of the participation of women who are currently active in the 14 active UN peace operations, which are: 1) MINUJUSTH, Haiti, 2) MINURSO, Western Sahara, 3) MINUSCA, Central African Republic, 4) MINUSMA, Mali, 5) MONUSCO, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 6) UNAMID, Darfur, 7) UNDOF, Golan, 8) UNFICYP, Cyprus, 9) UNIFIL, Lebanon, 10) UNISFA, Abyei, 11) UNMIK, Kosovo, 12) UNMISS, South Sudan, 13) UNMOGIP, India, and Pakistan, and 14) UNTSO, Middle East. A database was constructed that reported: (1) position held by the woman in the peace operation, (2) her profession, (3) educational level, (4) marital status, (5) religion, (6) nationality, (8) number of years working with peace operations, (9) whether the operation in which it operates has provided training on gender issues. For the construction of this database, official reports and statistics accessed through the UN Peacekeeping Resource Hub were used; The United Nations Statistical Commission, Peacekeeping Master Open Datasets, The Armed Conflict Database (ACD), The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) database; Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database; from the Evidence and Data for Gender Equality (EDGE) database. In addition to access to databases, peacekeeping operations will be contacted directly, and data requested individually. The database showed that the presence of women in these peace operations is still incipient, but growing. There are few women in command positions, and most of them occupy administrative or human-care positions.

Keywords: women, peace and security, peacekeeping operations, peace studies

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5451 Indonesia's War on Terror and the Consequences on Indonesian Political System

Authors: Salieg L. Munestri

Abstract:

War on Terror became a principal war after the 9/11 attacks on U.S. homeland. Instead of helping to build up worldwide efforts to condemn terror and suicide bombings, the U.S.-led war on terror has given opportunities for the vast spread of terror. In much of Muslim world recently, the Bush’s Doctrine pushing all nations to choose sides in a war that is not truly a war has resulted worse effects. In the world’s most populous Muslim nation, Indonesia, more terror occurred since then. Instead of reinforcing the well-trained anti-terror military forces, Indonesian government established US-funded Special Detachment 88 to guarantee the accomplishment of war on terror in Indonesia and significantly to bring impact on regional security atmosphere. Indonesia is a potential power in Asia but it lacked off sophisticated military equipments. Consequently, Indonesia agrees to become a U.S. mutual partner in combating terrorism managed by Defense Security Cooperation Agency. The formation of elite anti-terror forces and U.S. partnerships perform Indonesia’s commitment to take a position beside the U.S. in coping with terrorism issue. However, this undeniably brings consequences on Indonesian political athmosphere, which encourages the writer to dig deep the consequences on the domestic environment of Indonesian political system. The establishment of the elite forces has aroused fluctuations within government, chiefly Indonesian House, concerning the establishment urgency, the large amount of funding, and the unpleasant performances, particularly the treatment toward suspected terrorists. Hence, evaluation process upon the Detachment 88 is highly demanding.

Keywords: anti-terror forces, Indonesia, political system, war on terror

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5450 Federalizing the Philippines: What Does It Mean for the Igorot Indigenous Peoples?

Authors: Shierwin Agagen Cabunilas

Abstract:

The unitary form of Philippine government has built a tradition of bureaucracy that strengthened oligarch and clientele politics. Consequently, the Philippines is lagged behind development. There is so much poverty, unemployment, and inadequate social services. In addition, it seems that the rights of national ethnic minority groups like the Igorots to develop their political and economic interests, linguistic and cultural heritage are neglected. Given these circumstances, a paradigm shift is inevitable. The author advocates a transition from a unitary to a federal system of government. Contrary to the notion that a unitary system facilitates better governance, it actually stifles it. As a unitary government, the Philippines seems (a) to exhibit incompetence in delivering efficient, necessary services to the people and (b) to exclude the minority from political participation and policy making. This shows that Philippine unitary system is highly centralized and operates from a top-bottom scheme. However, a federal system encourages decentralization, plurality and political participation. In my view, federalism is beneficial to the Philippine society and congenial to the Igorot indigenous peoples insofar as participative decision-making and development goals are concerned. This research employs critical and constructive analyses. The former interprets some complex practices of Philippine politics while the latter investigates how theories of federalism can be appropriated to deal with political deficits, ethnic diversity, and indigenous peoples’ rights to self-determination. The topic is developed accordingly: First, the author briefly examines the unitary structure of the Philippines and its impact on inter-governmental affairs and processes, asserting that bureaucracy and corruption, for example, are counterproductive to a participative political life, to economic development and to the recognition of national ethnic minorities. Second, he scrutinizes why federalism might transform this. Here, he assesses various opposing philosophical contentions on federal system in managing ethnically diverse society, like the Philippines, and argue that decentralization of political power, economic and cultural developments are reasons to exit from unitary government. Third, he suggests that federalism can be instrumental to Igorots self-determination. Self-determination is neither opposed to national development nor to the ideals of democracy – liberty, justice, solidarity. For example, as others have already noted, a politics in the vernacular facilitates greater participation among the people. Hence, there is a greater chance to arrive at policies that serve the interest of the people. Some may wary that decentralization disintegrates a nation. According to the author, however, the recognition of minority rights which includes self-determination may promote filial devotion to the state. If Igorot indigenous peoples have access to suitable institutions to determine their political life, economic goals, social needs, i.e., education, culture, language, chances are it moves the country forward to development fostering national unity. Remarkably, federal system thus best responds to the Philippines’s democratic and development deficits. Federalism can also significantly rectify the practices that oppress and dislocate national ethnic minorities as it ensures the creation of localized institutions for optimum political, economic, cultural determination and maximizes representation in the public sphere.

Keywords: federalism, Igorot, indigenous peoples, self-determination

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5449 Environmental Degradation and Biodiversity Loss in Bangladesh

Authors: Mohammad Atiqur Rahman

Abstract:

The study aimed at inventorying the threatened biodiversity of Bangladesh and assessing the rate of loss of biodiversity caused due to environmental degradation for conservation management. The impact assessment of environmental depletion and rate of biodiversity loss determination have been made by a long term field investigation, examination of preserved herbarium specimens and survey of relevant floristic literature following the IUCN’s threatened criteria of assessing Red List Plants under the Flora Bangladesh Project. Biodiversity of Bangladesh, as evaluated, has been affected to a large extent during the last four and half decades due to spontaneous environmental degradation caused by frequent occurrence of cyclonic storms and tidal bores since 1970 and flooding, draught, unilateral diversion of trans-boundary waters by operating Farakka Barrage since 1975, indiscriminate destruction and over exploitation of natural resources, unplanned development and industrialization, overpopulation etc. Depletion of world’s largest mangrove biodiversity in Sundarbans, coastal and island biodiversity in southern part, agro-biodiversity and agro-fisheries all over the country, Haor and wetland biodiversity of plain lands, terrestrial and forest biodiversity in central and eastern hilly part of Bangladesh, as assessed, have greatly been occurred at a higher rate due to environmental degradation which in turn affect directly or indirectly the economy, food security and environmental health of the country. Complete inventory of 30 plant families resulted in the recognition of 45.18% species of Bangladesh as threatened environmentally and 13.23% species as possibly extinct from the flora since these have neither been reported or could be traced in the field for more than 100 years. The rate of extinction is determined to be 2.65% per 20 years. Hence the study indicates that the loss of biodiversity and environmental degradation in Bangladesh occurring at an alarming rate. The study focuses on the issues of environment, the extent of loss of different plant biodiversities in Bangladesh, prioritizing and implementing national conservation strategies for sustainable management of the environment.

Keywords: Bangladesh, biodiversity, conservation, environmental management

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5448 Spatial Cluster Analysis of Human Cases of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Reported in Pakistan

Authors: Tariq Abbas, Younus Muhammad, Sayyad Aun Muhammad

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Background : Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick born viral zoonotic disease that has been notified from almost all regions of Pakistan. The aim of this study was to investigate spatial distribution of CCHF cases reported to National Institue of Health , Islamabad during year 2013. Methods : Spatial statistics tools were applied to detect extent spatial auto-correlation and clusters of the disease based on adjusted cumulative incidence per million population for each district. Results : The data analyses revealed a large multi-district cluster of high values in the uplands of Balochistan province near Afghanistan border. Conclusion : The cluster included following districts: Pishin; Qilla Abdullah; Qilla Saifullah; Quetta, Sibi; Zhob; and Ziarat. These districts may be given priority in CCHF surveillance, control programs, and further epidemiological research . The location of the cluster close to border of Afghanistan and Iran highlight importance of the findings for organizations dealing with disease at national, regional and global levels.

Keywords: Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, Pakistan, spatial autocorrelation, clusters , adjusted cumulative incidence

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5447 Health Sector Budgetary Allocations and Their Implications on Health Service Delivery and Universal Health Coverage in Uganda

Authors: Richard Ssempala, Francis Kintu, Christine K. Tashobya

Abstract:

Funding for health remains a key constraint facing many developing countries, Uganda inclusive. Uganda’s health sector budget to the national budgetary allocation has stagnated between 8.2% to 10% over the years. Using data collected from different government documents, we sought to establish the implications of the budget allocation over the period (FY2010/11-2018/19) on health services delivery in Uganda to inform policymakers specifically Members of Parliament who are critical in making sectorial allocation on the steps they can adapt to change the terrain of health financing in Uganda. Findings revealed that the contribution of public funding to the health sector is low (15.7%) with private sources (42.6%) and donors contributing much more, with the bulk of private funds, are out of pocket. The study further revealed that low budget allocation had been manifested in inadequate and poorly motivated health workers, essential drug stock-outs that ultimately contribute to poor access to services, catastrophic health expenditures, and high morbidity rates. We recommend for a substantial and sustained increase in the government health budget, optimizing the available resources by addressing wastages, prioritizing health promotion, prevention and finally, institutionalizing the National Health Insurance Scheme.

Keywords: budget allocations, universal health coverage, health service delivery, Uganda

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5446 Assessing the Impact of Adopting Climate Smart Agriculture on Food Security and Multidimensional Poverty: Case of Rural Farm Households in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Authors: Hussien Ali, Mesfin Menza, Fitsum Hagos, Amare Haileslassie

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Climate change has perverse effects on agricultural productivity and natural resource base, negatively affecting the well-being of the households and communities. The government and NGOs promote climate smart agricultural (CSA) practices to help farmers adapt to and mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This study aims to identify widely available CSA practices and examine their impacts on food security and multi-dimensional poverty of rural farm households in the Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia. Using three-stage proportional to size sampling procedure, the study randomly selected 278 households from two kebeles from four districts each. A cross-sectional data of 2020/21 cropping season was collected using structured and pretested survey questionnaire. Food consumption score, dietary diversity score, food insecurity experience scale, and multidimensional poverty index were calculated to measure households’ welfare indicators. Multinomial endogenous switching regression model was used to assess average treatment effects of CSA on these outcome indicators on adopter and non-adopter households. The results indicate that the widely adopted CSA practices in the area are conservation agriculture, soil fertility management, crop diversification, and small-scale irrigation. Adopter households have, on average, statistically higher food consumption score, dietary diversity score and lower food insecurity access scale than non-adopters. Moreover, adopter households, on average, have lower deprivation score in multidimensional poverty compared to non-adopter households. Up scaling the adoption of CSA practices through the improvement of households’ implementation capacity and better information, technical advice, and innovative financing mechanisms is advised. Up scaling CSA practices can further promote achieving global goals such as SDG 1, SDG 2, and SDG 13 targets, aimed to end poverty and hunger and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, respectively.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, food security, multidimensional poverty, upscaling CSA, Ethiopia

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5445 Some Metal Levels in Muscle Tissue of Seven Fish Species from the Suğla and Beyşehir Lakes, Turkey

Authors: Haluk Özparlak, Murad Aydın Şanda, Gülşin Arslan

Abstract:

Phoxinellus anatolicus, Carassius gibelio, Sander lucioperca, Vimba vimba tenella, Capoeta capoeta, Tinca tinca from Suğla Lake (Turkey) and Phoxinellus anatolicus, Scardinius erythrophthalmus, Tinca tinca from Beyşehir Lake (Turkey) are economically important fish species and these fish have been consumed as food by local people. P. anatolicus is also endangered and endemic species from Turkey. In this study, concentrations of Cd, Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were determined in muscle tissue of these fish by using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Levels of metals in the muscle tissue of all the fish specimens were compared with results of previous studies, the tolerance levels of national and international guidelines and the levels of Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) limits set by FAO/WHO. Concentrations of Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb in the muscle tissue of all the fish specimens from Suğla and Beyşehir Lakes exceeded the tolerance levels of national and international guidelines. However, concentrations of Cd, Fe, Pb and Zn were below PTWI limits. Therefore, in terms of these metal levels, consumption of fresh filet of examined seven fish species (weekly up to about 300 g/person) doesn’t seem to be objectionable for human health.

Keywords: Beyşehir Lake, fish, metal levels, Suğla Lake

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5444 China and the Middle East in the 21st Century: From Political Mediation to Economic Expansionism

Authors: Ali Asghar Sotoudeh

Abstract:

Mediation Diplomacy has emerged as one of the main pillars of China's foreign policy goals and practices, and Beijing has established itself as a peacekeeping force in regional conflicts and crises such as Afghanistan, Syria, Sudan, Yemen, and the Arab-Israeli peace process. China is deepening and intensifying its diplomatic interventions in the Middle East and trying to shape the security and political developments in the Middle East. On the other hand, economically, China has become one of the most important trading partners with Middle Eastern governments. China is also seeking to expand its foreign policy and economic interests in the Middle East through the New Silk Road initiative and has signed cooperation agreements with 17 Arab countries. In this regard, due to the importance of the subject, this research focuses on answering this question; what is the basis of China's political mediation and economic expansionism in the Middle East? In parallel with this question, this study follows the hypothesis that the mediating role of peace is a legitimate way for China to intervene in Middle East political crises, Without causing China to deviate from its traditional guiding principles based on non-interference in the internal affairs of other actors in the international system. This policy also promotes the security of economic interests and increases the country's political influence in the Middle East. The research method is descriptive-analytical based on the qualitative method, and the data collection method is library and internet resources.

Keywords: China, middle east, political mediation, economic expansionism

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5443 Foucault and Governmentality: International Organizations and State Power

Authors: Sara Dragisic

Abstract:

Using the theoretical analysis of the birth of biopolitics that Foucault performed through the history of liberalism and neoliberalism, in this paper we will try to show how, precisely through problematizing the role of international institutions, the model of governance differs from previous ways of objectifying body and life. Are the state and its mechanisms still a Leviathan to fight against, or can it be even the driver of resistance against the proponents of modern governance and the biopolitical power? Do paradigmatic examples of biopolitics still appear through sovereignty and (international) law, or is it precisely this sphere that shows a significant dose of incompetence and powerlessness in relation to, not only the economic sphere (Foucault’s critique of neoliberalism) but also the new politics of freedom? Have the struggle for freedom and human rights, as well as the war on terrorism, opened a new spectrum of biopolitical processes, which are manifested precisely through new international institutions and humanitarian discourse? We will try to answer these questions, in the following way. On the one hand, we will show that the views of authors such as Agamben and Hardt and Negri, in whom the state and sovereignty are seen as enemies to be defeated or overcome, fail to see how such attempts could translate into the politicization of life like it is done in many examples through the doctrine of liberal interventionism and humanitarianism. On the other hand, we will point out that it is precisely the humanitarian discourse and the defense of the right to intervention that can be the incentive and basis for the politicization of the category of life and lead to the selective application of human rights. Zizek example of the killing of United Nations workers and doctors in a village during the Vietnam War, who were targeted even before police or soldiers, because they were precisely seen as a powerful instrument of American imperialism (as they were sincerely trying to help the population), will be focus of this part of the analysis. We’ll ask the question whether such interpretation is a kind of liquidation of the extreme left of the political (Laclau) or on this basis can be explained at least in part the need to review the functioning of international organizations, ranging from those dealing with humanitarian aid (and humanitarian military interventions) to those dealing with protection and the security of the population, primarily from growing terrorism. Based on the above examples, we will also explain how the discourse of terrorism itself plays a dual role: it can appear as a tool of liberal biopolitics, although, more superficially, it mostly appears as an enemy that wants to destroy the liberal system and its values. This brings us to the basic problem that this paper will tackle: do the mechanisms of institutional struggle for human rights and freedoms, which is often seen as opposed to the security mechanisms of the state, serve the governance of citizens in such a way that the latter themselves participate in producing biopolitical governmental practices? Is the freedom today "nothing but the correlative development of apparatuses of security" (Foucault)? Or, we can continue this line of Foucault’s argumentation and enhance the interpretation with the important question of what precisely today reflects the change in the rationality of governance in which society is transformed from a passive object into a subject of its own production. Finally, in order to understand the skills of biopolitical governance in modern civil society, it is necessary to pay attention to the status of international organizations, which seem to have become a significant place for the implementation of global governance. In this sense, the power of sovereignty can turn out to be an insufficiently strong power of security policy, which can go hand in hand with freedom policies, through neoliberal governmental techniques.

Keywords: neoliberalism, Foucault, sovereignty, biopolitics, international organizations, NGOs, Agamben, Hardt&Negri, Zizek, security, state power

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5442 The Effects of the War between Russia and Ukraine on Qatar’s Fossil and Renewable Energy Policies

Authors: Rahmat Hajimineh, Ebrahim Rezaei Rad

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The war between Russia and Ukraine is considered a very important event in international relations, especially after the end of the Cold War, a war that has had wide dimensions since its beginning. Dimensions that, in addition to political issues, have especially affected the world economy and especially the two countries. The most important issue in the field of the economy that was affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine was the issue of energy. Russia is one of the largest producers and suppliers of natural gas for European countries, and 40% of European gas is supplied by Russia. For this reason, it is natural that European countries have problems in this regard. On the other hand, Ukraine is considered the gateway to Europe for Russia regarding the export of natural gas. The war in Ukraine has had severe effects on gas and energy in Europe. From this point of view, European countries are looking to diversify their energy path by switching to renewable energies, and they are also looking at other energy-producing countries like Qatar to meet their energy needs. In this article, we are trying to investigate the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on Qatar's policies in the field of fossil and renewable energy. The descriptive-analytical method and the theoretical framework of energy security have been used to review this article. Based on this, the article examines the situation of fossil and renewable energies in Qatar and, on the other hand, the effects of the war in Ukraine on both energies in Qatar. The findings of this article also indicate that Qatar has made changes in its energy policies after the war in Ukraine, which seems to be possible due to its high potential, especially in the field of renewable and fossil energy. There is an export of surplus production of this country to other countries, especially European countries.

Keywords: Ukraine War, fossil fuels, renewable energy, energy security, Qatar

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5441 The Strategic Importance of Technology in the International Production: Beyond the Global Value Chains Approach

Authors: Marcelo Pereira Introini

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The global value chains (GVC) approach contributes to a better understanding of the international production organization amid globalization’s second unbundling from the 1970s on. Mainly due to the tools that help to understand the importance of critical competences, technological capabilities, and functions performed by each player, GVC research flourished in recent years, rooted in discussing the possibilities of integration and repositioning along regional and global value chains. Regarding this context, part of the literature endorsed a more optimistic view that engaging in fragmented production networks could represent learning opportunities for developing countries’ firms, since the relationship with transnational corporations could allow them build skills and competences. Increasing recognition that GVCs are based on asymmetric power relations provided another sight about benefits, costs, and development possibilities though. Once leading companies tend to restrict the replication of their technologies and capabilities by their suppliers, alternative strategies beyond the functional specialization, seen as a way to integrate value chains, began to be broadly highlighted. This paper organizes a coherent narrative about the shortcomings of the GVC analytical framework, while recognizing its multidimensional contributions and recent developments. We adopt two different and complementary perspectives to explore the idea of integration in the international production. On one hand, we emphasize obstacles beyond production components, analyzing the role played by intangible assets and intellectual property regimes. On the other hand, we consider the importance of domestic production and innovation systems for technological development. In order to provide a deeper understanding of the restrictions on technological learning of developing countries’ firms, we firstly build from the notion of intellectual monopoly to analyze how flagship companies can prevent subordinated firms from improving their positions in fragmented production networks. Based on intellectual property protection regimes we discuss the increasing asymmetries between these players and the decreasing access of part of them to strategic intangible assets. Second, we debate the role of productive-technological ecosystems and of interactive and systemic technological development processes, as concepts of the Innovation Systems approach. Supporting the idea that not only endogenous advantages are important for international competition of developing countries’ firms, but also that the building of these advantages itself can be a source of technological learning, we focus on local efforts as a crucial element, which is not replaceable for technology imported from abroad. Finally, the paper contributes to the discussion about technological development as a two-dimensional dynamic. If GVC analysis tends to underline a company-based perspective, stressing the learning opportunities associated to GVC integration, historical involvement of national States brings up the debate about technology as a central aspect of interstate disputes. In this sense, technology is seen as part of military modernization before being also used in civil contexts, what presupposes its role for national security and productive autonomy strategies. From this outlook, it is important to consider it as an asset that, incorporated in sophisticated machinery, can be the target of state policies besides the protection provided by intellectual property regimes, such as in export controls and inward-investment restrictions.

Keywords: global value chains, innovation systems, intellectual monopoly, technological development

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5440 Microseismics: Application in Hydrocarbon Reservoir Management

Authors: Rahul Kumar Singh, Apurva Sharma, Dilip Kumar Srivastava

Abstract:

Tilting of our interest towards unconventional exploitation of hydrocarbons has raised a serious concern to environmentalists. Emerging technologies like horizontal/multi-lateral drilling with subsequent hydraulic fracturing or fracking etc., for exploitation of different conventional/unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, are related to creating micro-level seismic events below the surface of the earth. Monitoring of these micro-level seismic events is not possible by the conventional methodology of the seismic method. So, to tackle this issue, a new technology that is microseismic is very much in discussions around the globe. Multiple researches are being carried out these days around the globe in order to prove microseismic as a new essential in the E & P industry, especially for unconventional reservoir management. Microseismic monitoring is now used for reservoir surveillance, and the best application is checking the integrity of the caprock and containment of fluid in it. In general, in whatever terms we want to use micro-seismic related events monitoring and understanding the effectiveness of stimulation, this technology offers a lot of value in terms of insight into the subsurface characteristics and processes, and this makes it really a good geophysical method to be used in future.

Keywords: microseismic, monitoring, hydraulic fracturing or fracking, reservoir surveillance, seismic hazards

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5439 Human Capital Discourse and Higher Education Policy

Authors: Tien-Hui Chiang

Abstract:

Human capital discourse encourages many countries to expand the capacity of HEIs. Along with this expansion, the higher education system is redefined as a free market and in turn it is privatized and commercialized. However, the state’s role in education is to balance social justice and capital accumulation. This role is further regulated by a specific form of neoliberalism constituted by social contexts. These correlations call for exploring the influence of human capital discourse on interwoven issues, such as the state’s role in education, higher education policy, and employability. Method: According to the perspective of neoliberal governmentality, answers to the above four research questions are likely to be embedded within discourses in documents related to higher education policies. Consequently, this study adopts a qualitative approach by analyzing official documents, including government reports, official statistics, circulars and official statements. Documents were collected and subjected to content analysis, with a particular focus on the period from 2005 to 2021. The technique of content analysis was applied to decode keywords and core concepts of these documents. Findings: Neoliberalism is exerted through human capital discourse in China particularly in the changes in higher education policies moving from quantitative expansion to quality control via employment or employability. Such changes highlight that the principle of “n”eoliberalism is more suitable for illustrating the practice of free market logic in different social contexts. The modifications of neoliberalism adopted by the Chinese government reflect that the state’s mission is to secure social security or the common good, so that public managerialism - in the form of programs for employment, internship and entrepreneurship - is adopted in the name of the public interest and the collective mission. Public managerialism now is not only targeted towards social institutions but the population more generally, incarnated here by college graduates. Its practice is not only to renovate organizational cultures but to activate people’s commitment to national development.

Keywords: employability, higher education expansion, neoliberalism, human capital discourse

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5438 Role of Community Forestry to Address Climate Change in Nepal

Authors: Laxmi Prasad Bhattarai

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is a growing global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods, and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: community forestry, climate change, global warming, adaptation, Nepal

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5437 Urban Slum Communities Engage in the Fight Against TB in Karnataka, South India

Authors: N. Rambabu, H. Gururaj, Reynold Washington, Oommen George

Abstract:

Motivation: Under the USAID Strengthening Health Outcomes through Private Sector (SHOPS-TB) initiative, Karnataka Health Promotion Trust (KHPT) with technical support of Abt associates is implementing a TB prevention and care model in Karnataka State, South India. KHPT is the interface agency between the public and private sectors, and providers and the target community facilitating early TB case detection and enhancing treatment compliance through private health care providers (pHCP) engagement in RNTCP. The project coverage is 0.84 million urban poor from 663 slums in 12 districts of Karnataka. Problem Statement: India with the highest burden of global TB (26%) and two million cases annually, accounts for approximately one fifth of the global incidence. WHO estimates 300,000 people die from TB annually in India. India expanded the coverage of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course chemotherapy (DOTS) to the entire country as early as 2006. However, the performance of RNTCP has not been uniform across states. While the national annual new smear-positive (NSP) case notification rate is 53, it is much lower at 47 in Karnataka. A third of TB patients in India reside in urban slums. Approach: Under SHOPS, KHPT actively engages with communities through key opinion leaders and community structures. Interpersonal communication, by Outreach workers through house-to-house visits and at aggregation points, is the primary method used for communication about TB and its management and to increase demand for sputum examination and DOTS. pHCP are mapped, trained and mentored by KHPT. ORWs also provide patient and family counseling on TB treatment, side effects and adherence, screen close contacts of index patients especially children under 6 years of age and screen co-morbidities including HIV, diabetes and malnutrition and risk factors including alcoholism, tobacco use, occupational hazards making appropriate accompanied or documented referrals. A treatment ‘buddy’ system for the patients involving close friends or family members, ICT-based support, DOTS Prerana (inspiration) groups of TB patients, family members and community, DOTS Mitra (friend) helpline services are also used for care and support services. Results: The intervention educated 39988 slum dwellers, referred 1731 chest symptomatics, tested 1061 patients and initiated 248 patients on anti-TB treatment within three months of intervention through continuous community engagement. Conclusions: The intervention’s potential to increase access to preferred health care providers, reduce patient and health system delays in diagnosis and initiation of treatment, improve health seeking behaviour and enhance compliance of pHCPs to standard treatment protocols is being monitored. Initial results are promising.

Keywords: DOTS, KHPT, health outcomes, public and private sector

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5436 Cost Effectiveness Analysis of a Community Intervention for Anti-Retroviral Therapy Delivery in Cambodia

Authors: Esabelle Lo Yan Yam, Pheak Chhoun, Sovannary Tuot, Emily Lancsar, Siyan Yi

Abstract:

Persons living with HIV (PLHIV) need lifelong antiretroviral treatment (ART) to keep their viral load suppressed to an undetectable level, maintain a healthy immune system, and reduce the risk of transmitting HIV to others. However, many factors affect PLHIV's adherence to ART, including access to antiretrovirals (ARV), stigma, lack of social support, and the burden of seeking lifelong care. Community-based care has been shown to be instrumental in the experience of PLHIV in many countries, including Cambodia. In this study based in Cambodia, a community-based ART delivery (CAD) intervention involving community action workers (CAWs) who are PLHIVs was introduced. These workers collect pre-packaged ARVs from the ART clinics and dispense them to PLHIVs in the communities. The quasi-experimental study involved approximately 2000 stable PLHIV in the intervention arm and another 2000 PLHIV in the control arm (receiving usual care). A cost-effectiveness analysis is currently conducted to complement the clinical effectiveness of the CAD intervention on the care continuum and treatment outcomes for stable PLHIV, as well as the operational effectiveness in increasing the efficiency of the ART clinics and the health system. The analysis will consider health system and societal perspectives based on primary outcomes, including retention in care, viral load suppression, and adherence to ART. Additionally, a consultation with the National Centre for HIV/AIDS, Dermatology, and STD under the Cambodia Ministry of Health will be done to discuss the conduct of a budget impact analysis that can quantify the financial impact on the government's budget when adopting the CAD intervention at the provincial and national levels. The budget impact analysis will take into consideration various scaling-up scenarios for the interventions in the country. The research will assess the cost-effectiveness of the CAD intervention to support national stakeholders in Cambodia to make an informed decision on the adoption and scaling up of the intervention in Cambodia. The results are currently being analyzed and will be available at the time of the conference.

Keywords: Cambodia, community intervention, economic evaluation, global health, HIV/AIDs, implementation research

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5435 Attitude, Practice, and Prevalence of Injuries among Building Construction Workers in Lagos State

Authors: O. J. Makinde, O. A. Abiola

Abstract:

Background: Hazards and injuries are two common phenomena that have been associated with the building construction profession. Apart from injuries, deaths from injuries sustained at work have been high in this profession. This study, therefore, attempts to determine the attitude, practice, and prevalence of injuries among this group of workers. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with 285 respondents. The sampling was multi-staged. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to elicit information such as socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents, attitude and practice of occupational safety and prevalence of injuries among the workers. The data were analyzed using epi-info 3.5.1 statistical software. Result: The modal age group is 25-34yrs which made up 40% of the respondents. Most of the respondents were male (86.3%). Most of the respondent (52.3%) have their highest educational level as the secondary school. Most of the respondents (64.9%) had a poor attitude to occupational safety while 91.6% had poor occupational safety practices. The prevalence of occupational injury was very high (64.9%). Particles in the eyes have the highest prevalence (52.3%) while electric shock has the least prevalence (19.6%).None of the respondent working at a height used safety belt while working. Conclusion: Attitude and practice of occupational safety are poor among this group of workers and prevalence of injuries was high.

Keywords: building, construction, Hazard, injury, workers

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5434 Lockit: A Logic Locking Automation Software

Authors: Nemanja Kajtez, Yue Zhan, Basel Halak

Abstract:

The significant rise in the cost of manufacturing of nanoscale integrated circuits (IC) has led the majority of IC design companies to outsource the fabrication of their products to other companies, often located in different countries. This multinational nature of the hardware supply chain has led to a host of security threats, including IP piracy, IC overproduction, and Trojan insertion. To combat that, researchers have proposed logic locking techniques to protect the intellectual properties of the design and increase the difficulty of malicious modification of its functionality. However, the adoption of logic locking approaches is rather slow due to the lack of the integration with IC production process and the lack of efficacy of existing algorithms. This work automates the logic locking process by developing software using Python that performs the locking on a gate-level netlist and can be integrated with the existing digital synthesis tools. Analysis of the latest logic locking algorithms has demonstrated that the SFLL-HD algorithm is one of the most secure and versatile in trading-off levels of protection against different types of attacks and was thus selected for implementation. The presented tool can also be expanded to incorporate the latest locking mechanisms to keep up with the fast-paced development in this field. The paper also presents a case study to demonstrate the functionality of the tool and how it could be used to explore the design space and compare different locking solutions. The source code of this tool is available freely from (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353195333_Source_Code_for_The_Lockit_Tool).

Keywords: design automation, hardware security, IP piracy, logic locking

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5433 Lessons Learned through a Bicultural Approach to Tsunami Education in Aotearoa New Zealand

Authors: Lucy H. Kaiser, Kate Boersen

Abstract:

Kura Kaupapa Māori (kura) and bilingual schools are primary schools in Aotearoa/New Zealand which operate fully or partially under Māori custom and have curricula developed to include Te Reo Māori and Tikanga Māori (Māori language and cultural practices). These schools were established to support Māori children and their families through reinforcing cultural identity by enabling Māori language and culture to flourish in the field of education. Māori kaupapa (values), Mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) and Te Reo are crucial considerations for the development of educational resources developed for kura, bilingual and mainstream schools. The inclusion of hazard risk in education has become an important issue in New Zealand due to the vulnerability of communities to a plethora of different hazards. Māori have an extensive knowledge of their local area and the history of hazards which is often not appropriately recognised within mainstream hazard education resources. Researchers from the Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University and East Coast LAB (Life at the Boundary) in Napier were funded to collaboratively develop a toolkit of tsunami risk reduction activities with schools located in Hawke’s Bay’s tsunami evacuation zones. A Māori-led bicultural approach to developing and running the education activities was taken, focusing on creating culturally and locally relevant materials for students and schools as well as giving students a proactive role in making their communities better prepared for a tsunami event. The community-based participatory research is Māori-centred, framed by qualitative and Kaupapa Maori research methodologies and utilizes a range of data collection methods including interviews, focus groups and surveys. Māori participants, stakeholders and the researchers collaborated through the duration of the project to ensure the programme would align with the wider school curricula and kaupapa values. The education programme applied a tuakana/teina, Māori teaching and learning approach in which high school aged students (tuakana) developed tsunami preparedness activities to run with primary school students (teina). At the end of the education programme, high school students were asked to reflect on their participation, what they had learned and what they had enjoyed during the activities. This paper draws on lessons learned throughout this research project. As an exemplar, retaining a bicultural and bilingual perspective resulted in a more inclusive project as there was variability across the students’ levels of confidence using Te Reo and Māori knowledge and cultural frameworks. Providing a range of different learning and experiential activities including waiata (Māori songs), pūrākau (traditional stories) and games was important to ensure students had the opportunity to participate and contribute using a range of different approaches that were appropriate to their individual learning needs. Inclusion of teachers in facilitation also proved beneficial in assisting classroom behavioral management. Lessons were framed by the tikanga and kawa (protocols) of the school to maintain cultural safety for the researchers and the students. Finally, the tuakana/teina component of the education activities became the crux of the programme, demonstrating a path for Rangatahi to support their whānau and communities through facilitating disaster preparedness, risk reduction and resilience.

Keywords: school safety, indigenous, disaster preparedness, children, education, tsunami

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5432 Numerical Analysis of Rainfall-Induced Roadside Slope Failures and Their Stabilizing Solution

Authors: Muhammad Suradi, Sugiarto, Abdullah Latip

Abstract:

Many roadside slope failures occur during the rainy season, particularly in the period of extreme rainfall along Connecting National Road of Salubatu-Mambi, West Sulawesi, Indonesia. These occurrences cause traffic obstacles and endanger people along and around the road. Research collaboration between P2JN (National Road Construction Board) West Sulawesi Province, who authorize to supervise the road condition, and Ujung Pandang State Polytechnic (Applied University) was established to cope with the landslide problem. This research aims to determine factors triggering roadside slope failures and their optimum stabilizing solution. To achieve this objective, site observation and soil investigation were carried out to obtain parameters for analyses of rainfall-induced slope instability and reinforcement design using the SV Flux and SV Slope software. The result of this analysis will be taken into account for the next analysis to get an optimum design of the slope reinforcement. The result indicates some factors such as steep slopes, sandy soils, and unvegetated slope surface mainly contribute to the slope failures during intense rainfall. With respect to the contributing factors as well as construction material and technology, cantilever/butressing retaining wall becomes the optimum solution for the roadside slope reinforcement.

Keywords: roadside slope, failure, rainfall, slope reinforcement, optimum solution

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5431 Insights and Inferences Associated with Subscription of Health Insurance in the Informal Sector of India

Authors: Harinder Singh

Abstract:

The paper sheds light on the perceptions of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector of India, towards the health insurance. In addition to this, it also explores the association of the identified perceptions with household decisions to enroll for health insurance schemes in India. Firstly the data taken from the primary survey of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis to evaluate the perceptions. Thereafter, logistic regression was employed to determine the association of the identified perceptions regarding the enrollment. Our study identifies twelve perceptions related to the health insurance enrollment of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector of India. The study demonstrates that perceptions have the strongest association with the voluntary enrollment. These specifically relate to the lack of awareness about the need to buy health insurance; comprehensive coverage; income constraint; future contingencies and social obligations; lack of information; availability of subsidized government health care; linkage with government hospitals and preference for government schemes. Conclusions: Along with the food security, health security has become a crying need of the workers employed in the informal sector and the time has come to scale up the health insurance schemes for them in the country. Policy makers or marketers of health insurance policies should recognize the household perceptions as a potential barrier and try to develop a health insurance package as per the actual needs of the informal sector (low income) in India.

Keywords: association, enrollment, health insurance, informal sector, perceptions, uninsured

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5430 Menopause Cultural Research: A Comparative Study of National and Diasporic Chinese Menopausal Women’s Perceptions and Lived Experience of Menopause

Authors: Yilin Wang, Ayumi Goto

Abstract:

Although most females will experience menopause due to social value habits of cultural factors, some Chinese women may lack the confidence to talk about the problems they are experiencing while going through menopause. Also, sometimes the inappropriateness of medical terminology leads to panic when women face the symptoms associated with menopause. On top of that, when women avoid discussing menopause as a topic, others are less likely to pay attention to the needs of menopausal women as their bodies change. This research will compare the experience of Chinese menopausal women and diasporic Chinese women's perceptions of menopause. A qualitative study will be conducted by collecting and analyzing experiences and perceptions to compare differences in women's perceptions of menopause, considering cultural and social factors. In addition, the study will gather information on the differences in the conceptualization of menopause between the Chinese and Canadian medical fields. Co-design sessions will be held to establish how to bring menopause to the attention of people other than women. Furthermore, a support network for menopause women will be created through these co-design sessions. It is hoped that this research will contribute to a proper understanding of menopause and provide support for Chinese women. This research is built upon feminist standpoint theory and inclusive design theory. The results of this study will be presented in this paper.

Keywords: menopause, feminist standpoint theory, Chinese national & diasporic women, inclusive design

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5429 Implementation of Chlorine Monitoring and Supply System for Drinking Water Tanks

Authors: Ugur Fidan, Naim Karasekreter

Abstract:

Healthy and clean water should not contain disease-causing micro-organisms and toxic chemicals and must contain the necessary minerals in a balanced manner. Today, water resources have a limited and strategic importance, necessitating the management of water reserves. Water tanks meet the water needs of people and should be regularly chlorinated to prevent waterborne diseases. For this purpose, automatic chlorination systems placed in water tanks for killing bacteria. However, the regular operation of automatic chlorination systems depends on refilling the chlorine tank when it is empty. For this reason, there is a need for a stock control system, in which chlorine levels are regularly monitored and supplied. It has become imperative to take urgent measures against epidemics caused by the fact that most of our country is not aware of the end of chlorine. The aim of this work is to rehabilitate existing water tanks and to provide a method for a modern water storage system in which chlorination is digitally monitored by turning the newly established water tanks into a closed system. A sensor network structure using GSM/GPRS communication infrastructure has been developed in the study. The system consists of two basic units: hardware and software. The hardware includes a chlorine level sensor, an RFID interlock system for authorized personnel entry into water tank, a motion sensor for animals and other elements, and a camera system to ensure process safety. It transmits the data from the hardware sensors to the host server software via the TCP/IP protocol. The main server software processes the incoming data through the security algorithm and informs the relevant unit responsible (Security forces, Chlorine supply unit, Public health, Local Administrator) by e-mail and SMS. Since the software is developed base on the web, authorized personnel are also able to monitor drinking water tank and report data on the internet. When the findings and user feedback obtained as a result of the study are evaluated, it is shown that closed drinking water tanks are built with GRP type material, and continuous monitoring in digital environment is vital for sustainable health water supply for people.

Keywords: wireless sensor networks (WSN), monitoring, chlorine, water tank, security

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5428 Identifying Neighborhoods at Potential Risk of Food Insecurity in Rural British Columbia

Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

Abstract:

Substantial research has indicated that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics’ of neighborhoods are strong determinants of food security. The aim of this study was to develop a Food Insecurity Neighborhood Index (FINI) based on the associated socioeconomic and demographic variables to identify the areas at potential risk of food insecurity in rural British Columbia (BC). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used to calculate the FINI for each rural Dissemination Area (DA) using the food security determinant variables from Canadian Census data. Using ArcGIS, the neighborhoods with the top quartile FINI values were classified as food insecure. The results of this study indicated that the most food insecure neighborhood with the highest FINI value of 99.1 was in the Bulkley-Nechako (central BC) area whereas the lowest FINI with the value of 2.97 was for a rural neighborhood in the Cowichan Valley area. In total, 98.049 (19%) of the rural population of British Columbians reside in high food insecure areas. Moreover, the distribution of food insecure neighborhoods was found to be strongly dependent on the degree of rurality in BC. In conclusion, the cluster of food insecure neighbourhoods was more pronounced in Central Coast, Mount Wadington, Peace River, Kootenay Boundary, and the Alberni-Clayoqout Regional Districts.

Keywords: neighborhood food insecurity index, socioeconomic and demographic determinants, principal component analysis, Canada census, ArcGIS

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5427 National Assessment for Schools in Saudi Arabia: Score Reliability and Plausible Values

Authors: Dimiter M. Dimitrov, Abdullah Sadaawi

Abstract:

The National Assessment for Schools (NAFS) in Saudi Arabia consists of standardized tests in Mathematics, Reading, and Science for school grade levels 3, 6, and 9. One main goal is to classify students into four categories of NAFS performance (minimal, basic, proficient, and advanced) by schools and the entire national sample. The NAFS scoring and equating is performed on a bounded scale (D-scale: ranging from 0 to 1) in the framework of the recently developed “D-scoring method of measurement.” The specificity of the NAFS measurement framework and data complexity presented both challenges and opportunities to (a) the estimation of score reliability for schools, (b) setting cut-scores for the classification of students into categories of performance, and (c) generating plausible values for distributions of student performance on the D-scale. The estimation of score reliability at the school level was performed in the framework of generalizability theory (GT), with students “nested” within schools and test items “nested” within test forms. The GT design was executed via a multilevel modeling syntax code in R. Cut-scores (on the D-scale) for the classification of students into performance categories was derived via a recently developed method of standard setting, referred to as “Response Vector for Mastery” (RVM) method. For each school, the classification of students into categories of NAFS performance was based on distributions of plausible values for the students’ scores on NAFS tests by grade level (3, 6, and 9) and subject (Mathematics, Reading, and Science). Plausible values (on the D-scale) for each individual student were generated via random selection from a statistical logit-normal distribution with parameters derived from the student’s D-score and its conditional standard error, SE(D). All procedures related to D-scoring, equating, generating plausible values, and classification of students into performance levels were executed via a computer program in R developed for the purpose of NAFS data analysis.

Keywords: large-scale assessment, reliability, generalizability theory, plausible values

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