Search results for: risk of harm

Authors: Elvan Ender Altay, Zeynep Pirselimoglu Batman, Murat Zencirkiran

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Ancient cities are, according to United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), landscape areas designed and created by people, at the same time naturally developing and constantly changing sustainable cultural landscapes. Ancient cities are the urban settlements where we can see the reflection of public lifestyle existed thousands of years ago. The conceptual and spatial traces in ancient cities, are crucial for examining the city history and its preservation. This study is intended to demonstrate the impacts of human life and physical environment on the cultural landscape. This research aims to protect and maintain cultural continuity of the ancient cities in Bursa which contain archeological and historical elements and could not majorly reach to the day because of not being protected and to show importance of landscape architecture to ensure this protection. In this context, ancient cities in Bursa were researched and a total of 7 ancient cities were identified. These ancient cities are; Apollonia, Lopadion, Nicaea, Myrleia, Cius, Daskyleion and Basilinopolis. In the next stage, the spatial performances of ancient cities were assessed by weighted criteria method. The highest score is the Nicaea Ancient City. Considering current situation of the ancient cities in Bursa, it is seen that most of them could not survive until our day due to lack of interest in these areas. As a result, according to the findings, it is a priority to create a protective band with green areas around the archaeological sites, thus adapting to nearby areas and emphasizing culture. In addition, proposals have been made to provide a transportation network that does not harm the ancient cities and the cultural landscape.

Keywords: ancient cities, Bursa, landscape, spatial performance

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Authors: Kaoutar Chbihi, Aziza Menouni, Imane Berni, Tarik Abchouch, Samir El Jaafari

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The unpredictability and ambiguity of a pandemic, combined with the economic impact, sedentary lifestyle, and increased living cost, have the potential to seriously raise the risk of mental health issues among the population. Therefore, this study had the aim to assess the magnitude of mental health outcomes and risk factors among the general population in Morocco in times of the Covid-19 pandemic. This study consisted of a cross-sectional design and was survey-based and region-stratified by collecting demographic data and mental health measurements from 523 participants. The degree of depression, anxiety, and insomnia symptoms were assessed by using the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire and the 7-items Generalized Anxiety Disorder. The survey was completed by 523 individuals. Results showed that 67.9% were women, and 58.6% were aged 18-30 years. 49% of participants reported depression issues, while 39.8% experienced anxiety. Being a married woman with children was associated with severe symptoms of depression and anxiety. Finally, our findings reported a significant mental health burden among the general population of Morocco, which needs to be tackled by specific co-created interventions and adapted strategies in order to prevent impacts on public health.

Keywords: anxiety, COVID-19, depression, mental health, Morocco, pandemic

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Authors: Eman Al-khateeba, Ebaa Al-Zayadneha, Osama Al-Dalahmahb, Zeinab Alawadib, Faisal Khatiba, Randa Naffaa, Yanal Shafagoj

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The purpose of the current study was to examine the association of plasma copper and lipid concentrations with changes in cognitive function in elderly Jordanian individuals. The study population consisted of two groups; 52 subjects with dementia, and 50 controls. All individuals were screened with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Clock drawing test (CDT).Serum copper and lipid profile were assessed in all subjects, and the results were statistically evaluated at P < 0.05 level of significance. Dementia group had 10.1 % higher copper levels than controls however the difference was not statistically significant. No significant differences could be found between the two groups in lipid profile levels. There was no significant correlation between serum copper, lipid profile and cognitive decline in elderly Jordanians. Demographic variables indicate that educational level less than 12 years and illiterate demonstrated a 3.29 fold (p=0.026) and 6.29 fold (p=0.002) increase in risk of developing dementia, respectively. While coffee intake showed a protective effect against cognitive decline with 6.25 fold lower risk with increased coffee intake.

Keywords: copper, cholesterol, dementia, Alzheimer's disease, lipid profile, coffee

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Authors: Hyun-E Yeom

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Patients’ views about the cause of hypertension may influence their present and proactive behaviors to regulate high blood pressure. This study aimed to examine the internal structure underlying the causal beliefs about hypertension and the influence of causal beliefs on self-care intention and medical compliance in Korean patients with hypertension. The causal beliefs of 145 patients (M age = 57.7) were assessed using the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised. An exploratory factor analysis was used to identify the factor structure of the causal beliefs, and the factors’ influence on self-care intention and medication compliance was analyzed using multiple and logistic regression analyses. The four-factor structure including psychological, fate-related, risk and habitual factors was identified and the psychological factor was the most representative component of causal beliefs. The risk and fate-related factors were significant factors affecting lower intention to engage in self-care and poor compliance with medication regimens, respectively. The findings support the critical role of causal beliefs about hypertension in driving patients’ current and future self-care behaviors. This study highlights the importance of educational interventions corresponding to patients’ awareness of hypertension for improving their adherence to a healthy lifestyle and medication regimens.

Keywords: hypertension, self-care, beliefs, medication compliance

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Authors: Mutavhatsindi Tshinakaho

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Invasive alien plants (IAP’s) are referred to as species that are non-native to the ecosystem under consideration. Whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic, ecological, or environmental harm. The integrated management of the invasive plant, Tithonia diversifolia, will be assessed through two herbicide trials (one on the seedlings and the other on matured plants) and a competitive trial between Tithonia and invasive grass species. The initial herbicide trial will be undertaken at the University of Venda Agricultural greenhouse facilities, where Tithonia will be planted in pot plants and watered every after two days until they reach at least 30 cm and will then be subjected to four different herbicide treatments (Metsulfuron methyl, Fluroxypyr, Picloram, Triclopyr), water will be utilised as a control. The percentage damage to foliar will be recorded. The second herbicide trial will be undertaken at Levubu road site, where matured Tithonia will be cut at at least 10cm above the ground and the subjected to herbicide treatments (Picloram, Fluroxypyr, Imazapyr, and Water as a control). The site will be visited post treatment for assessment. For the competition trial, tall grass species will be chosen as competitors (Panicum maximum and Eragrostis murvula), they will be grown at six densities per pot in the greenhouse facilities at the University of Venda, were they will be kept watered for the duration of the experiment. At the end of the experiment, plants will be removed from pots, and the above and below ground biomass will be weighed. The expected results are to know the effective integrated management strategy for T. diversifolia, the effective rehabilitation of T. diversifolia invaded habitats, and the effective chemical control of T. diversifolia

Keywords: foliar, biomass, competition, invasion

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Authors: Zi-Han Li, Zi-Jun Sun, Dong-Yuan Chang, Li Zhu, Min Chen, Ming-Hui Zhao

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Aims: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) reported that patients with the rs55703767 minor allele in collagen type IV α3 chain encoding gene COL4A3 showed protection against diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). However, the role of rs55703767 in type 2 DKD has not been elucidated. The aim of the current study was to investigate the association between COL4A3 variant rs55703767 and DKD risk in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: This nested case-control study was performed on 1311 patients who had T2DM for at least 10 years, including 580 with DKD and 731 without DKD. We detected the genotypes of all patients by TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assay and analyzed the association between COL4A3 variant rs55703767 and DKD risk. Results: Genetic analysis revealed that there was no significant difference between T2DM patients with DKD and those without DKD regarding allele or genotype frequencies of rs55703767, and the effect of this variant was not hyperglycemia specific. Conclusion: Our findings suggested that there was no detectable association between the COL4A3 variant rs55703767 and the susceptibility to DKD in the Chinese T2DM population.

Keywords: collagen type IV α3 chain, gene polymorphism, type 2 diabetes, diabetic kidney disease

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Authors: Shi-Yu Xu

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The top three risk factors that have contributed to building collapses during past earthquake events in Taiwan are: "irregular floor plans or elevations," "insufficient columns in single-bay buildings," and the "weak-story problem." Fortunately, these unsound structural characteristics can be directly identified from the floor plans. However, due to the vast number of old buildings, conducting manual inspections to identify these compromised structural features in all existing structures would be time-consuming and prone to human errors. This study aims to develop an algorithm that utilizes artificial intelligence techniques to automatically pinpoint the structural components within a building's floor plans. The obtained spatial information will be utilized to construct a digital structural model of the building. This information, particularly regarding the distribution of columns in the floor plan, can then be used to conduct preliminary seismic assessments of the building. The study employs various image processing and pattern recognition techniques to enhance detection efficiency and accuracy. The study enables a large-scale evaluation of structural vulnerability for numerous old buildings, providing ample time to arrange for structural retrofitting in those buildings that are at risk of significant damage or collapse during earthquakes.

Keywords: structural vulnerability detection, object recognition, seismic capacity assessment, old buildings, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Hanieh Mohammadi, Sarah Fraser, Anil Nigam, Frederic Lesage, Louis Bherer

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A chronically higher cerebral pulsatility is thought to damage cerebral microcirculation, leading to cognitive decline in older adults. Although it is widely known that regular physical activity is linked to improvement in some cognitive domains, including executive functions, the mediating role of cerebral pulsatility on this link remains to be elucidated. This study assessed the impact of 6 months of regular physical activity upon changes in an optical index of cerebral pulsatility and the role of physical activity for the improvement of executive functions. 27 older adults (aged 57-79, 66.7% women) with cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) were enrolled in the study. The participants completed the behavioral Stroop test, which was extracted from the Delis-Kaplan executive functions system battery at baseline (T0) and after 6 months (T6) of physical activity. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was applied for an innovative approach to indexing cerebral pulsatility in the brain microcirculation at T0 and T6. The participants were at standing rest while a NIRS device recorded hemodynamics data from frontal and motor cortex subregions at T0 and T6. The cerebral pulsatility index of interest was cerebral pulse amplitude, which was extracted from the pulsatile component of NIRS data. Our data indicated that 6 months of physical activity was associated with a reduction in the response time for the executive functions, including inhibition (T0: 56.33± 18.2 to T6: 53.33± 15.7,p= 0.038)and Switching(T0: 63.05± 5.68 to T6: 57.96 ±7.19,p< 0.001) conditions of the Stroop test. Also, physical activity was associated with a reduction in cerebral pulse amplitude (T0: 0.62± 0.05 to T6: 0.55± 0.08, p < 0.001). Notably, cerebral pulse amplitude was a significant mediator of the link between physical activity and response to the Stroop test for both inhibition (β=0.33 (0.61,0.23),p< 0.05)and switching (β=0.42 (0.69,0.11),p <0.01) conditions. This study suggests that regular physical activity may support cognitive functions through the improvement of cerebral pulsatility in older adults with CVRF.

Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopy, cerebral pulsatility, physical activity, cardiovascular risk factors, executive functions

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Authors: H. Kalboussi, A. Aloui, W. Boughattas, M. Maoua, A. Brahem, S. Chatti, O. El Maalel, F. Debbabi, N. Mrizak, Y. Ben Youssef, A. Khlif, I. Bougmiza

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Background: In recent decades, the incidence of children's hematological malignancies has been increasing worldwide including Tunisia. Their severity is reflected in the importance of the medical, social and economic impact. This increase remains fully unexplained, and the involvement of genetic, environmental and occupational factors is strongly suspected. Materials and Methods: Our study is a cross-sectional survey of the type case-control conducted in the University Hospital of Farhat Hached of Sousse during the period ranging between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2012,and which included children with acute leukemia compared to children unharmed by neoplastic disease . Cases and controls were matched by age and gender. Our objective was to: - Describe the socio-occupational characteristics of the parents of children with acute leukemia. - Identify potential occupational factors implicated in the genesis of acute leukemia. Result: The number of acute leukemia cases in the Hematology Service and day hospital of the University Hospital of Farhat Hached during the study period was 66 cases divided into in 40 boys and 26 girls with a sex ratio of 1.53. Our cases and controls were matched by age and gender. The risk of incidence of leukemia in children from smoking fathers was higher (p = 0.02, OR = 2.24, IC = [1.11 - 4.52]). The risk of incidence of leukemia in children from alcoholic fathers was higher with p = 0,009, OR = 3.9; CI = [1.33 - 11.39]. After adjusting different variables, the difference persisted significantly with pa = 0.03 and ORa = 3.5; ICa = [1.09 -11.6]. 25.7 % of cases had a family history of blood disease and neoplasia, whereas no control presented that. The difference was statistically significant (p = 0.006), OR = 1.46, IC = [1.38 - 1.56]. The parental occupational exposures associated to the occurrence of acute leukemia in children were: - Pesticides with a statistically significant difference (p = 0.03), OR = 2.94, IC = [1.06 - 8.13]. This difference persisted after adjustment with different variables pa = 0.01, ORa 3.75; ICa = [1.27 - 11.03]. - Cement without a statistically non-significant difference (p = 0.2). This difference has become significant after adjustment with the different variables pa = 0.03; ORa = 2.67; ICa = [1.06 - 6.7]. Conclusion: Parental exposure to occupational risk factors may play a role in the pathogenesis of acute leukemia in children.

Keywords: hematological malignancies, children, parents, occupational exposure

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Authors: N. M. Sani, I. Bitrus, A. M. Sarki, N. S. Mujahid

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Hepatitis is one of the neglected infectious diseases in sub Saharan Africa, and most of the available data is based on blood donors. Health care workers (HCWs) often get infected as a result of their close contact with patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B and C among this group of professionals with a view to improving the quality of care to their patients. Hepatitis B and C infections pose a major public health problem worldwide. While infection is highest in the developing world particularly Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, healthcare workers are at higher risk of acquiring blood-borne viral infections, particularly Hepatitis B and C which are mostly asymptomatic. This study was aimed at determining the prevalence of Hepatitis B and C infections and associated risk factors among health care workers in Dutse Metropolis, Jigawa State - Nigeria. A standard rapid immuno-chromatographic technique i.e. rapid ELISA was used to screen all sera for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and Hepatitis C viral antibody (HCVAb) respectively. Strips containing coated antibodies and antigens to HBV and HCV respectively were removed from the foil. Strips were labeled according to samples. Using a separate disposable pipette, 2 drops of the sample (plasma) were added into each test strip and allowed to run across the absorbent pad. Results were read after 15 minutes. The prevalence of HBV and HCV infection in 100 healthcare workers was determined by testing the plasma collected from the clients during their normal checkup using HBsAg and HCVAb test strips. Results were subjected to statistical analysis using chi-square test. The prevalence of HBV among HCWs was 19 out of 100 (19.0%) and that of HCV was 5 out of 100 (5.0%) where in both cases, higher prevalence was observed among female nurses. It was also observed that all HCV positive cases were recorded among nurses only. The study revealed that nurses are at greater risk of contracting HBV and HCV due to their frequent contact with patients. It is therefore recommended that effective vaccination and other infection control measures be encouraged among healthcare workers.

Keywords: prevalence, hepatitis, viruses, healthcare workers, infection

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Authors: Katarzyna Niewiadomska

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Many technology startups fail to achieve a worthwhile return on investment for their funders, founders, and employees. Failures in product development, to-market strategy, sales, and delivery are commonly recognized. Founder failures are not as obvious and harder to identify. This paper explores six critical failure points that entrepreneurs and innovators are susceptible to and aims to link their emotional intelligence and behavioral profile to the points at which they experienced self-perceived failure. A model of six failure points from the perspective of the technology entrepreneur ranging from pre-startup to maturity is provided. By analyzing emotional and behavioral profile data from entrepreneurs and recording in-person accounts, certain key emotional and behavioral clusters contributing to each failure point are determined, and several underlying factors are defined and discussed. Recommendations that support entrepreneurs and innovators stalling at each failure point are given. This work can enable stakeholders to evaluate founder emotional and behavioral profiles and to take risk-mitigating action, either through coaching or through more robust team creation, to avoid founder-related company failure. The paper will be of interest to investors funding startups, executives leading them and mentors supporting them.

Keywords: behavior, emotional intelligence, entrepreneur, failure

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Authors: Nadir A. Carreon, Christa Sonderer, Aakarsh Rao, Roman Lysecky

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With the advent of complex software and increased connectivity, the security of life-critical medical devices is becoming an increasing concern, particularly with their direct impact on human safety. Security is essential, but it is impossible to develop completely secure and impenetrable systems at design time. Therefore, it is important to assess the potential impact on the security and safety of exploiting a vulnerability in such critical medical systems. The common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) calculates the severity of exploitable vulnerabilities. However, for medical devices it does not consider the unique challenges of impacts to human health and privacy. Thus, the scoring of a medical device on which human life depends (e.g., pacemakers, insulin pumps) can score very low, while a system on which human life does not depend (e.g., hospital archiving systems) might score very high. In this paper, we propose a medical vulnerability scoring system (MVSS) that extends CVSS to address the health and privacy concerns of medical devices. We propose incorporating two new parameters, namely health impact, and sensitivity impact. Sensitivity refers to the type of information that can be stolen from the device, and health represents the impact on the safety of the patient if the vulnerability is exploited (e.g., potential harm, life-threatening). We evaluate fifteen different known vulnerabilities in medical devices and compare MVSS against two state-of-the-art medical device-oriented vulnerability scoring systems and the foundational CVSS.

Keywords: common vulnerability system, medical devices, medical device security, vulnerabilities

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Authors: Dyah Larasati, Karishma Alize Huda, Sri Kusumastuti Rahayu, Martin Daniel Siyaranamual

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Indonesia continues to reform its social protection system to provide the needed protection for its citizen. Indonesia Social Protection consisted of social assistance programs (non-contributory/tax-financed) specifically targeted for the poor and at-risk and social security/insurance program (contributory system). The social assistance programs have mostly been implemented since 1998. The national health insurance has been implemented since 2014 and the employment social insurance since 2015. One major reform implemented has been improving the targeting performance of its major social assistance portfolios including (1) Food Assistance for the poor families (Rastra and BPNT/noncash foods assistance); (2) Education Assistance for poor children; (3) Conditional Cash Transfer for poor families (PKH); and (4) Subsidized beneficiaries of National Health Insurance (JKN-PBI) for the poor and at-risk individuals. For the Social Insurance (through BPJS Employment program), several initiatives have been implemented to expand the program contributing members, although it mostly benefits the formal sector workers. However, major gaps still exist especially for the emerging middle-income groups who typically work at the informal sectors. They have yet to get the protection needed to sustain their social and economic growth. Since 2017, TNP2K (the National Team for Poverty Reduction) under the Vice President office has led the social protection discourse as the government understands the need to address vulnerabilities across the lifecycle and prioritize support to the most at-risk population particularly the elderly, young children and people with disabilities. Discussion and advocacy to recommend for more investment is continuing in order for the government to establish a comprehensive social protection system in the near future (2020-2024) that protects children through an inclusive child benefit program; build a system to benefit more working-age adults (including individuals with disabilities) and a three-tier elderly protection as they reach 65 years.

Keywords: poverty reduction, social assistance, social insurance, social protection

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Authors: Kisik Song, Sungjoo Lee

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With the growing importance of intangible assets recently, the impact of patent infringement on the business of a company has become more evident. Accordingly, it is essential for firms to estimate the risk of patent infringement risk before developing a technology and create new technology ideas to avoid the risk. Recognizing the needs, several attempts have been made to help develop new technology opportunities and most of them have focused on identifying emerging vacant technologies from patent analysis. In these studies, the IPC (International Patent Classification) system or keywords from text-mining application to patent documents was generally used to define vacant technologies. Unlike those studies, this study adopted F-term, which classifies patent documents according to the technical features of the inventions described in them. Since the technical features are analyzed by various perspectives by F-term, F-term provides more detailed information about technologies compared to IPC while more systematic information compared to keywords. Therefore, if well utilized, it can be a useful guideline to create a new technology idea. Recognizing the potential of F-term, this paper aims to suggest a novel approach to developing new technology ideas to avoid patent infringement based on F-term. For this purpose, we firstly collected data about F-term and then applied text-mining to the descriptions about classification criteria and attributes. From the text-mining results, we could identify other technologies with similar technical features of the existing one, the patented technology. Finally, we compare the technologies and extract the technical features that are commonly used in other technologies but have not been used in the existing one. These features are presented in terms of “purpose”, “function”, “structure”, “material”, “method”, “processing and operation procedure” and “control means” and so are useful for creating new technology ideas that help avoid infringing patent rights of other companies. Theoretically, this is one of the earliest attempts to adopt F-term to patent analysis; the proposed methodology can show how to best take advantage of F-term with the wealth of technical information. In practice, the proposed methodology can be valuable in the ideation process for successful product and service innovation without infringing the patents of other companies.

Keywords: patent infringement, new technology ideas, patent analysis, F-term

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Authors: Afrah Aladwani, Alexander Mullen, Mohammad AlRashidi, Omamah Alfarisi, Faisal Alterkit, Abdulwahab Aladwani, Asit Kumar, Emad Eldosouky

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Introduction: Trastuzumab is a HER-2 targeted humanized monoclonal antibody that significantly improves the therapeutic outcomes of metastatic and non-metastatic breast cancer. However, it is associated with increased risk of cardiotoxicity that ranges from mild decline in the cardiac ejection fraction to permanent cardiomyopathy. Concerns have been raised in treating eligible older patients. This study compares trastuzumab outcomes between two age cohorts in the Kuwait Cancer Control Centre (KCCC). Methods: In a prospective comparative observational study, 93 HER-2 positive breast cancer patients undergoing different chemotherapy protocols + trastuzumab were included and divided into two cohorts based on their age (˂60 and ≥60 years old). The baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was assessed and monitored every three months during trastuzumab treatment. Event of cardiotoxicity was defined as ≥10% decline in the LVEF from the baseline. The lower accepted normal limit of the LVEF was 50%. Results: The median baseline LVEF was 65% in both age cohorts (IQR 8% and 9% for older and younger patients respectively). Whereas, the median LVEF post-trastuzumab treatment was 51% and 55% in older and younger patients respectively (IQR 8%; p-value = 0.22), despite the fact that older patients had significantly lower exposure to anthracyclines compared to younger patients (60% and 84.1% respectively; p-value ˂0.001). 86.7% and 55.6% of older and younger patients, respectively, developed ≥10% decline in their LVEF from the baseline. Among those, only 29% of older and 27% of younger patients reached a LVEF value below 50% (p-value = 0.88). Statistically, age was the only factor that significantly correlated with trastuzumab induced cardiotoxicity (OR 4; p-value ˂0.012), but it did not increase the requirement for permanent discontinuation of treatment. A baseline LVEF value below 60% contributed to developing a post-treatment value below normal ranges (50%). Conclusion: Breast cancer patients aged 60 years and above in Kuwait were at 4-fold higher risk of developing ≥10% decline in their LVEF from the baseline than younger patients during trastuzumab treatment. Surprisingly, previous exposure to anthracyclines and multiple comorbidities were not associated with significant increased risk of cardiotoxicity.

Keywords: breast cancer, elderly, Trastuzumab, cardiotoxicity

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Gabor Kiraly

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Wine regions are based on equilibria between climate, soil, grape varieties, and farming expertise that define the special character and quality of local vine farming and wine production. Changes in climate conditions may increase risk of destabilizing this equilibrium. Adaptation decisions, including adjusting practices, processes and capitals in response to climate change stresses – may reduce this risk. However, farmers’ adaptive behavior are subject to a wide range of factors and forces such as links between climate change implications and production, farm - scale adaptive capacity and other external forces that might hinder them to make efficient response to climate change challenges. This paper will aim to study climate change adaptation practices and strategies of grape growers in a way of applying a complex and holistic approach involving theories, methods and tools both from environmental and social sciences. It will introduce the field of adaptation studies as an evidence - based discourse by presenting an overview of examples from wine regions where adaptation studies have already reached an advanced stage. This will serve as a theoretical background for a preliminary research with the aim to examine the feasibility and applicability of such a research approach in the Hungarian context.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, viticulture, Hungary

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Authors: Mert Kıranç, Ekrem Duman, Murat Özbilen

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In order to achieve new product development (NPD) activities on time and within budgetary constraints, the NPD managers need a well-designed methodology. This study intends to create an integrated project management methodology for the ones who focus on new product development projects. In the scope of the study, four different management systems are combined. These systems are called as 'Schedule-oriented Stage-Gate Method, Risk Management, Change Management and Earned Value Management'. New product development term is quite common in many different industries such as defense industry, construction, health care/dental, higher education, fast moving consumer goods, white goods, electronic devices, marketing and advertising and software development. All product manufacturers run against each other’s for introducing a new product to the market. In order to achieve to produce a more competitive product in the market, an optimum project management methodology is chosen, and this methodology is adapted to company culture. The right methodology helps the company to present perfect product to the customers at the right time. The benefits of proposed methodology are discussed as an application by a company. As a result, how the integrated methodology improves the efficiency and how it achieves the success of the project are unfolded.

Keywords: project, project management, management methodology, new product development, risk management, change management, earned value, stage-gate

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Authors: Hatem K. Hamed, Mohamed S. Hrouda

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The Middle Paleocene Lower Beda Formation was deposited in a ramp system with local shoaling. The main constituent is limestone, with subordinate dolomites and Shales. Reservoir quality is largely influenced by depositional environments and diagenesis processes. Generally the reservoir quality of Lower Beda Formation is low risk on the Inferred Horst and in the Southern Shelf where the Lower Beda formation comprises mainly of calcarenties. In the vicinity of the well GG1 the Lower Beda comprise mainly of argillaceous calcilutites and shale. The reservoir quality gradually improves from high risk to moderate risk towards KK1, LL1 and NN1 wells. The average gross thickness of Lower Beda Formation is about 300 ft. The net thickness varies from about 270 ft. in the E1-71 well to about 30 ft. in the vicinity of GG1-71 well. The net thickest of Lower Beda form a NNW-SSW trend with an average of 250 ft. the change in facies is due to change in the depositional environment, from lagoonal to shoal barrier to open marine affected the reservoir quality. The Upper Cretaceous Sirte Shale is the main source rock. It is developed within the three troughs surrounding the study area. S-Marada Trough to the N- E, Gerad Trough to the N N-W, and Abu Tummym Sub-basin to the S-W of the Inferred Horst. Sirte shale reaches 1000ft, of organically rich section. It has good organic contents over large area 2% to 3%. Hydrocarbon shows were encountered in several wells in Beda Formation this is an indication of vertical and lateral migration of hydrocarbon. The overlying Upper Paleocene Khalifa Formation is a transgressive shale, it is an effective regional top seal. Lithofacies variations in Khalifa Shale, from shales to limestones in the southern shelf in R1-71 well approximately 50-75% of the secession is limestone. About 47 million barrel of hydrocarbon recoverable reserves is expected to be trapped in structural and stratigraphic traps in Beda Formation in the study area.

Keywords: Sirte basin, Beda formation, concession 71, petroleum play fairway analysis

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Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

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Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: accident research, accident scenarios, ADAS, effectiveness, property damage analysis

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Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city

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Authors: Aschenaki Zerihun Kea, Bernt Lindtjorn, Achamyelesh Gebretsadik, Sven Gudmund Hinderaker

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Introduction: Maternal mortality studies conducted at the national level do not provide the information needed for planning and monitoring health programs at lower administrative levels. The aim of this study was to measure maternal mortality, identify risk factors and district-level variations in Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Methods: A cross sectional population-based survey was carried out in households where women reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the past five years. The study was conducted in the Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia, from July 2019 to May 2020. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed. The outcome variable of the study was maternal mortality. Complex sample logistic regression analysis was applied to assess variables independently associated with maternal mortality. Results: We registered 10602 live births (LB) and 48 maternal deaths, yielding an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 419; 95% CI: 260-577 per 100,000 LB. Aroresa district had the highest MMR with 1142 (95% CI: 693-1591) per 100,000 LB. Leading causes of death were haemorrhage 21 (41%) and eclampsia 10 (27%). Thirty (59%) mothers died during labour, or within 24 hours after delivery, 25 (47%) died at home and 17 (38%) at a health facility. Mothers who did not have formal education had a higher risk of maternal death (AOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7 – 11.0). The risk of maternal death was higher in districts with a low midwife-to-population ratio (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.0-8.9). Conclusion: The high maternal mortality with district-level variations in Sidama Region highlights the importance of improving obstetric care and employing targeted interventions in areas with high mortality rates. Due attention should be given to improving access to female education. Additional midwives have to be trained and deployed to improve maternal health services and consequently save the lives of mothers.

Keywords: maternal mortality variation, maternal death, Sidama, Ethiopia

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Authors: Swadhin Mondal

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While safe drinking water is an effective defense against the infection of water borne diseases, a large number of populations suffering from these diseases do not have access to safe drinking water due inadequacy of supply. Private entrepreneurs entered this sector and made bottled drinking water available by supplying various kinds of bottled water. In this study we found that the bottled drinking water industry has experienced a spectacular growth over the past two decades and it has a huge growth potential because of rising demand for safe drinking. High profit margin (217 %) is the main attraction to the entrepreneur to invest in this industry. Health awareness, lack of safe drinking water facilities, rising income, urbanization, migration and rising trend in tourism industries are the major influencing factors of demand for bottled drinking water (BDW). This industry also partially fulfills the demand for drinking water. More than 2 percent of household’s demands were met by this industry and many more households (additional 4 percent) coping with BDW during water crisis. Poor households spend around 4 percent of their total monthly household’s consumption expenditure on BDW which may have an adverse impact on household because households could have spent this for purchasing other goods. Like other developed counties, a large section of Indian households are shifting from their traditional sources of water to BDW. However, there are some concerns about the quality of BDW. Many cases, BDW contains chemical toxins at more than permissible level that can be harmful for health. Hence, there is an urgent need for appropriate intervention to regulate price, reduce potential harm and improve the quality of water provided by this industry.

Keywords: drinking water, public health public failure, privatization, development, public policy

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Authors: Mkhokheli Sithole, Brenda N. Muchapondwa

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Food security is becoming a critical issue for people residing mainly in the rural areas where frequent droughts interrupt food production, reduce income, compromise the ability to save and erode livelihoods. This tends to increase the vulnerability of poor households to food and income insecurity, hence, malnutrition. There is an emerging need for DRR strategies to complement the existing rain fed crop production based livelihoods. One of such strategies employed by the community of Nerumedzo in Bikita district is the harvesting of Encosternum delegorguei insect. This article analyses the livelihood impacts of Encosternum delegorguei insect as a DRR strategy. The research used a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The insect samples were tested in the laboratory for their nutritional composition while surveys were done on a sample of 40 community members. Participatory observations and 5 focus group discussions were also done. The results revealed that harvesting the Encosternum delegorguei insects provides a livelihood for the locals by complementing crop production thereby mitigating potential negative effects of frequent droughts. The insects are now a significant source of income to poor households in the community.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction, livelihoods, human, social sciences

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Authors: James Hilton Williams

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Recent tsunami events, including the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile, have highlighted the potential for tsunami impacts on the built environment. International research in the tsunami impacts domain has been largely focused toward impacts on buildings and casualty estimations, while only limited attention has been placed on the impacts on infrastructure which is critical for the recovery of impacted communities. New Zealand, with 75% of the population within 10 km of the coast, has a large amount of coastal infrastructure exposed to local, regional and distant tsunami sources. To effectively manage tsunami risk for New Zealand critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, and communications, the vulnerability of infrastructure networks and components must first be determined. This research develops infrastructure asset vulnerability, functionality and repair- cost functions based on international post-event tsunami impact assessment data from technologically similar countries, including Japan and Chile, and adapts these to New Zealand. These functions are then utilized within a New Zealand based impact framework, allowing for cost benefit analyses, effective tsunami risk management strategies and mitigation options for exposed critical infrastructure to be determined, which can also be applied internationally.

Keywords: impact assessment, infrastructure, tsunami impacts, vulnerability functions

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Authors: Jose CanIzares

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In the last decades, resilience has received much attention in relation to understanding and managing new forms of risk, especially in the context of urban adaptation to climate change. There are abundant concerns, however, on how to best interpret resilience and related ideas, and on whether they can guide ethically appropriate risk-related or adaptation efforts. Narrative creation and framing are critical steps in shaping public discussion and policy in large-scale interventions, since they favor or inhibit early decision and interpretation habits, which can be morally sensitive and then become persistent on time. This article adds to such framing process by contesting a conventional narrative on resilience and offering an alternative one. Conventionally, present ideas on resilience are traced to the work of ecologist C. S. Holling, especially to his article Resilience and Stability in Ecosystems. This article is usually portrayed as a contribution of complex systems thinking to theoretical ecology, where Holling appeals to resilience in order to challenge received views on ecosystem stability and the diversity-stability hypothesis. In this regard, resilience is construed as a “purely scientific”, precise and descriptive concept, denoting a complex property that allows ecosystems to persist, or to maintain functions, after disturbance. Yet, these formal features of resilience supposedly changed with Holling’s later work in the 90s, where, it is argued, Holling begun to use resilience as a more pragmatic “boundary term”, aimed at unifying transdisciplinary research about risks, ecological or otherwise, and at articulating public debate and governance strategies on the issue. In the conventional story, increased vagueness and degrees of normativity are the price to pay for this conceptual shift, which has made the term more widely usable, but also incompatible with scientific purposes and morally problematic (if not completely objectionable). This paper builds on a detailed analysis of Holling’s early work to propose an alternative narrative. The study will show that the “complexity turn” has often entangled theoretical and pragmatic aims. Accordingly, Holling’s primary aim was to fight what he termed “pathologies of natural resource management” or “pathologies of command and control management”, and so, the terms of his reform of ecosystem science are partly subordinate to the details of his proposal for reforming the management sciences. As regards resilience, Holling used it as a polysemous, ambiguous and normative term: sometimes, as an instrumental value that is closely related to various stability concepts; other times, and more crucially, as an intrinsic value and a tool for attacking efficiency and instrumentalism in management. This narrative reveals the limitations of its conventional alternative and has several practical advantages. It captures well the structure and purposes of Holling’s project, and the various roles of resilience in it. It helps to link Holling’s early work with other philosophical and ideological shifts at work in the 70s. It highlights the currency of Holling’s early work for present research and action in fields such as risk and climate adaptation. And it draws attention to morally relevant aspects of resilience that the conventional narrative neglects.

Keywords: resilience, complexity turn, risk management, positivistic, framing

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Authors: Phil P. Wagner

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There is an overwhelming amount of athlete-centric information available for sport practitioners in this era of tech and big data, but protocols in athletic rehabilitation remain arbitrary. It is a common assumption that the rate at which tissue heals amongst individuals is the same; yielding protocols that are entirely time-based. Progressing athletes through rehab programs that lack individualization can potentially expose athletes to stimuli they are not prepared for or unnecessarily lengthen their recovery period. A 7-year aggregated and anonymous database was used to develop reliable and valid assessments to measure athletic resilience. Each assessment utilizes force plate technology with proprietary protocols and analysis to provide key thresholds for injury risk and recovery. Using a T score to analyze movement qualities, much like the Z score used for bone density from a Dexa scan, specific prescriptions are provided to mitigate the athlete’s inherent injury risk. In addition to obliging to surgical clearance, practitioners must put in place a clearance protocol guided by standardized assessments and achievement in strength thresholds. In order to truly hold individuals accountable (practitioners, athletic trainers, performance coaches, etc.), success in improving pre-defined key performance indicators must be frequently assessed and analyzed.

Keywords: analytics, athlete rehabilitation, athlete resilience, injury prediction, injury prevention

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Authors: Rajlakshmi Banerjee, Sujoy Banerjee

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The prevalence of malnutrition, as the most common cause of morbidity and mortality increases with old age, especially in developing countries like India, because of many factors out of which dentate status is one. It affects diet, nutritional status and general health due to reduced chewing ability and poor food choices. Aim and Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of nutritional status, dietary intake on the Oral Health-related Quality of life (OHRQoL) of elderly edentulous complete denture wearing patients and to know whether they are at a higher risk of malnutrition. The objective was to assess the need to include dietary and nutritional counselling during Prosthodontic rehabilitation of elderly edentulous patients. Materials and method: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 200 elderly denture wearing patients above 60 yrs of age from Nagpur, Maharashtra. The majority of study subjects (60%) were between the age group 60 and 75 years. Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA) Questionnaire was used to assess nutritional status and General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI) questionnaire was used to determine the Oral health related Quality of life of these patients.Descriptive statistics was used to analyze data using SPSS version 21. Results: Among the assessed subjects, nearly 80% of them had total scores of GOHAI between 12 and 57 which require ‘needed dental care.’ As per MNA, 10.5% had adequate nutrition, 70 % were at risk of malnutrition, and remaining 19.5 % of subjects were malnourished. There was a significant correlation between GOHAI and MNA scores. A strong association was found between mean GOHAI and MNA scores and thereby nutritional status and OHRQOL.Conclusion: The use of conventional dentures increases the risk of malnutrition in the elderly due to inability to eat and chew food properly and therefore severely affecting the quality of life. Dietary analysis and counselling should be strictly incorporated into geriatric treatment planning during Prosthetic rehabilitation.

Keywords: general oral health assessment index, General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI), nutritional assessment, mini-nutritional assessment, Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA), quality of life

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Authors: Safoin Aktaou, Aya Al Masri, Kamel Guerchouche, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: In the ‘Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)’ department, all workers involved in preparing the patient, setting it up, tunnel cleaning, etc. are likely to be exposed to ‘ElectroMagnetic fields (EMF)’ emitted by the MRI device. Exposure to EMF can cause adverse radio-biological effects to workers. The purpose of this study is to propose an organizational process to manage and control EMF risks. Materials and methods: The study was conducted at seven MRI departments using machines with 1.5 and 3 Tesla magnetic fields. We assessed the exposure of each one by measuring the two electromagnetic fields (static and dynamic) at different distances from the MRI machine both inside and around the examination room. Measurement values were compared with British and American references (those of the UK's ‘Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency (MHRA)’ and the ‘American Radiology Society (ACR)’). Results: Following the results of EMF measurements and their comparison with the recommendations of learned societies, a zoning system that adapts to needs of different MRI services across the country has been proposed. In effect, three risk areas have been identified within the MRI services. This has led to the development of a good practice guide related to the magnetic protection of MRI workers. Conclusion: The guide established by our study is a standard that allows MRI workers to protect themselves against the risk of electromagnetic fields.

Keywords: comparison with international references, measurement of electromagnetic fields, magnetic protection of workers, magnetic resonance imaging

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Authors: Savaş Durduran, Ceren Yağci

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The nature of the events going on in the world, when people’s lives are considered significantly affects natural disasters. Considering thousands of years of earth history, it is seen that many natural disasters, particularly earthquakes located in our country. Behaving cautious, without occurring hazards, after being disaster is much easier and cost effective than returning to the normal life. The four phases of disaster management in the whole world has been described as; pre-disaster preparedness and mitigation, post-disaster response and rehabilitation studies. Pre-disaster and post-disaster phases has half the weight of disaster management. How much would be prepared for disaster, no matter how disaster damage reducing work gives important, we will be less harm from material and spiritual sense. To do this in a systematic way we use the Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The execution of the emergency services to be on time and emergency control mechanism against the development the most appropriate decision Geographic Information System GIS) can be useful. The execution of the emergency services to be on time and emergency control mechanism towards for developing to be the most appropriate decision Geographic Information System (GIS) can be useful. The results obtained by using products with GIS analysis of seismic data to the city, manager of the city required information and data that can be more healthy and satisfies the appropriate policy decisions can be produced. In this study, using ArcGIS software and benefiting reports of the earthquake that occurred in the Konya city, spatial and non-spatial data consisting databases created, by the help of this database a potential disaster management aimed in the city of Konya regard to urban earthquake, GIS-aided analyzes were performed.

Keywords: geographic information systems (GIS), disaster management, emergency control mechanism, Konya

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