Search results for: strain approach

Authors: Jalel Khelil

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In order to improve reliability of Gas Turbine machine especially its generator equipment, a fault diagnosis system based on fuzzy approach is proposed. Three various methods namely K-NN (K-nearest neighbors), F-KNN (Fuzzy K-nearest neighbors) and FNM (Fuzzy nearest mean) are adopted to provide the measurement of relative strength of vibration defaults. Both applications consist of two major steps: Feature extraction and default classification. 09 statistical features are extracted from vibration signals. 03 different classes are used in this study which describes vibrations condition: Normal, unbalance defect, and misalignment defect. The use of the fuzzy approaches and the classification results are discussed. Results show that these approaches yield high successful rates of vibration default classification.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, fuzzy classification k-nearest neighbor, vibration

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Authors: K. E. Daryani, H. Mohamad

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Uncertainties in the geo-structure analysis and design have a significant impact on the safety of slopes. Traditionally, uncertainties in the geotechnical design are addressed by incorporating a conservative factor of safety in the analytical model. In this paper, a risk-based approach is adopted to assess the influence of the geotechnical variable uncertainties on the stability of infinite slopes in cohesionless soils using the “partial factor of safety on shear strength” approach as stated in Eurocode 7. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean values of the soil friction angle and void ratio.

Keywords: Safety, Probability of Failure, Reliability, Infinite Slopes, Sand.

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Authors: Archana Thangavelu, Han-Ik Park, Young-Chul Park, Joon-Hong Park

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In this numerical study, we have proposed a method for evaluation of backward extrusion process of pressure vessel made up of steel. Demand for lighter and stiffer products have been increasing in the last years especially in automobile engineering. Through detailed finite element analysis, effective stress, strain and velocity profile have been obtained with optimal range. The process design of a forward and backward extrusion axe-symmetric part has been studied. Forging is mainly carried out because forged products are highly reliable and possess superior mechanical properties when compared to normal products. Performing computational simulations of 3D hot forging with various dimensions of billet and optimization of weight is carried out using Taguchi Orthogonal Array (OA) Optimization technique. The technique used in this study can be used for newly developed materials to investigate its forgeability for much complicated shapes in closed hot die forging process.

Keywords: backward extrusion, hot forging, optimization, finite element analysis, Taguchi method

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Authors: P. K. Rahul Krishna, S. Sandeep Kumar, Jayanthi Sunder Raj

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The article explores one of the important relations between numbers-the Pythagorean triples (triplets) which finds its application in distance measurement, construction of roads, towers, buildings and wherever Pythagoras theorem finds its application. The Pythagorean triples are numbers, that satisfy the condition “In a given set of three natural numbers, the sum of squares of two natural numbers is equal to the square of the other natural number”. There are numerous methods and equations to obtain the triplets, which have their own merits and demerits. Here, quadratic approach for generating triples uses the hypotenuse leg difference method. The advantage is that variables are few and finally only three independent variables are present.

Keywords: arithmetic progression, hypotenuse leg difference method, natural numbers, Pythagorean triplets, quadratic equation

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Authors: Brandon To, Yong S. Park

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As more battery electric vehicles are being introduced into the automobile industry, continuous advancements are constantly made in the electric vehicle space. Improvements in lithium-ion battery technology allow electric vehicles to be capable of traveling long distances. The batteries are capable of being charged faster, allowing for a sufficient range in shorter amounts of time. With increased reliance on battery technology and the changes in vehicle power trains, new challenges arise from this. Resulting electric vehicle fires caused by collisions are potentially more dangerous than those of the typical internal combustion engine. To further reduce the battery failures involved with side collisions, this project intends to reinforce an existing battery pack of an electric vehicle with honeycomb structures such that intrusion into the batteries can be minimized with weight restrictions in place. Honeycomb structures of hexagonal geometry are implemented into the side extrusions of the battery pack. With the use of explicit dynamics simulations performed in ANSYS, quantitative results such as deformation, strain, and stress are used to compare the performance of the battery pack with and without the implemented honeycomb structures.

Keywords: battery pack, electric vehicle, honeycomb, side impact

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Authors: Justin Tang

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Balance tests are frequently used to diagnose concussions on the sidelines of sporting events. Manual scoring, however, is labor intensive and subjective, and many concussions go undetected. This study institutes a novel approach to conducting the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) more quantitatively using Microsoft’s gaming system Kinect, which uses a contactless sensor and several cameras to receive data and estimate body limb positions. Using a machine learning approach, Visual Gesture Builder, and a deterministic approach, MATLAB, we tested whether the Kinect can differentiate between “correct” and erroneous stances of the BESS. We created the two separate solutions by recording test videos to teach the Kinect correct stances and by developing a code using Java. Twenty-two subjects were asked to perform a series of BESS tests while the Kinect was collecting data. The Kinect recorded the subjects and mapped key joints onto their bodies to obtain angles and measurements that are interpreted by the software. Through VGB and MATLAB, the videos are analyzed to enumerate the number of errors committed during testing. The resulting statistics demonstrate a high correlation between manual scoring and the Kinect approaches, indicating the viability of the use of remote tracking devices in conducting concussion tests.

Keywords: automated, concussion detection, contactless sensors, microsoft kinect

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Authors: Maria Philokyprou, Aimilios Michael

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Contemporary theories of sustainability, concerning the natural and built environment, have recently introduced an environmental attitude towards the architectural design that, in turn, affects the practice of conservation and reuse of the existing building stock. This paper presents an environmentally friendly approach towards the conservation of vernacular architecture and it is based on the results of a research program which involved the investigation of sustainable design elements of traditional buildings in Cyprus. The research in question showed that Cypriot vernacular architecture gave more emphasis on cooling rather than heating strategies. Another notable finding of the investigation was the great importance given to courtyards as they enhance considerably, and in various ways, the microclimatic conditions of the immediate environment with favorable results throughout the year. Moreover, it was shown that the reduction in temperature fluctuation observed in the closed and semi-open spaces, compared to the respective temperature fluctuation of the external environment - due to the thermal inertia of the building envelope - helps towards the achievement of more comfortable living conditions within traditional dwellings. This paper concludes with a proposal of a sustainable approach towards the conservation of the existing environment and the introduction of new environmental criteria for the conservation of traditional buildings, beyond the aesthetic, morphological and structural ones that are generally applied.

Keywords: bioclimatic, conservation, environmental, traditional dwellings, vernacular architecture

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Authors: Ozlem Senyigit, Nur Yilmaz

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Throughout the architectural education, it is aimed to provide students with the ability to find original solutions to current problems. In this sense, workshops that provide creative thinking within the action, experiencing the environment, and finding instant solutions to problems have an important place in the education process. Parasitic architecture, which is a contemporary design approach in the architectural agenda, includes small scale designs integrated into the carrier system of existing structures in spaces of the existing urban fabric which resembles the host-parasite relationship in the biology field. The scope of this study consists of a 12-weeks long experimental workshop of the 'parasitic architecture', which was designed within the scope of Basic Design 2 course of the Department of Architecture of Çukurova University in the 2017-2018 academic year. In this study, parasitic architecture was discussed as a space design method. Students analyzed the campus of the Çukurova University and drew sketches to identify gaps in it. During the workshop, the function-form-context relationship was discussed. The output products were evaluated within the context of urban spaces/gaps, functional requirements, and students gained awareness not just about the urban occupancy but also gaps.

Keywords: design approach, parasitic architecture, experimental workshop, architectural education

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Authors: Bernd Engel, Hassan Raheem Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method used for tube forming. During the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness changes in the cross section of the tube. Wall thinning of the tube takes place at the extrados, whereas wall thickening of the tube occurs at the intrados. This paper investigates the tube bending with rotary draw bending process using thick-walled tubes and different material properties (16Mo3 and 10CrMo9-10). The experimental tests and finite element simulations are used to calculate the variable characteristics (wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting and longitudinal strain distribution). These results are compared with results of a plasto-mechanical model. Moreover, the cross section distortion is investigated in this study. This study helped to get bends with smaller wall factor for different material properties.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, thick wall tube, material properties, material influence

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Authors: M. Omer Faruk, A. M. A. M. Zonaed Siddiki, M. Fazal Karim, Md. Masuduzzaman, S. Chowdhury, Md. Shafiqul Islam, M. Alamgir Hossain

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The dog tapeworms Echinococcus granulosus develop hydatid cysts in various organs in human and domestic animals worldwide including Bangladesh. The aim of this study was to identify and characterize the genotype of E. granulosus isolated from cattle using 12S rRNA and Cytochrome oxidase 1 (COX 1) genes. A total of 43 hydatid cyst samples were collected from 390 examined cattle samples derived from slaughterhouses. Among them, three cysts were fertile. Genomic DNA was extracted from germinal membrane and/or protoscoleces followed by PCR amplification of mitochondrial 12S rRNA and Cytochrome oxidase 1 gene fragments. The sequence data revealed existence of G1 (64.28%) and possible G3 (21.43%) genotypes for the first time in Bangladesh. The study indicates that common sheep strain G1 is the dominant subtype of E. granulosus in Chittagong region of Bangladesh. This will increase our understanding of the epidemiology of hydatidosis in the southern part of the country and will be useful to plan suitable control measures in the long run.

Keywords: Echinococcus granulosus, Cox1, 12S rRNA, molecular characterization, Bangladesh

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Authors: Sangdeok Lee, Sangwon Han, Changtaek Hyun

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Construction defects are major components that result in negative impacts on project performance including schedule delays and cost overruns. Since construction defects generally occur when a few associated causes combine, a thorough understanding of defect causality is required in order to more systematically prevent construction defects. To address this issue, this paper uses association rule mining (ARM) to quantify the causality between defect causes, and social network analysis (SNA) to find indirect causality among them. The suggested approach is validated with 350 defect instances from concrete works in 32 projects in Korea. The results show that the interrelationships revealed by the approach reflect the characteristics of the concrete task and the important causes that should be prevented.

Keywords: causality, defect causes, social network analysis, association rule mining

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Authors: Tsietsi J. Pilusa, Tumisang G. Seodigeng

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This study evaluates the benefits of advanced waste management practices in unlocking waste-to-energy opportunities within the solid waste industry. The key drivers of sustainable waste management practices, specifically with respect to packaging waste-to-energy technology options are discussed. The success of a waste-to-energy system depends significantly on the appropriateness of available technologies, including those that are well established as well as those that are less so. There are hard and soft interventions to be considered when packaging an integrated waste treatment solution. Technology compatibility with variation in feedstock (waste) quality and quantities remains a key factor. These factors influence the technology reliability in terms of production efficiencies and product consistency, which in turn, drives the supply and demand network. Waste treatment technologies rely on the waste material as feedstock; the feedstock varies in quality and quantities depending on several factors; hence, the technology fails, as a result. It is critical to design an advanced waste treatment technology in an integrated approach to minimize the possibility of technology failure due to unpredictable feedstock quality, quantities, conversion efficiencies, and inconsistent product yield or quality. An integrated waste-to-energy approach offers a secure system design that considers sustainable waste management practices.

Keywords: emerging markets, evaluation tool, interventions, waste treatment technologies

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Authors: Abdelsabour G. A. Khaled, Ahmed W. A. Abdalla And Sabry Y. M. Mahmoud

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Banana plants showing typical mosaic and yellow stripes on leaves as symptoms were collected from Assiut Governorate in Egypt. The causal agent was identified as Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) on the basis of symptoms, transmission, serology, transmission electron microscopy and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Coat protein (CP) gene was amplified using gene specific primers for coat protein (CP), followed by cloning into desired cloning vector for sequencing. In this study the CMV was transmitted into propagation host either by aphid or mechanically. The transmission was confirmed through Direct Antigen Coating Enzyme Linked Immuno Sorbent Assay (DAC-ELISA). Analysis of the 120 deduced amino acid sequence of the coat protein gene revealed that the EG-A strain of CMV shared from 97.50 to 98.33% with those strains belonging to subgroup IA. The cluster analysis grouped the Egyptian isolate with strains Fny and Ri8 belonging sub-group IA. It appears that there occurs a high incidence of CMV infecting banana belonging to IA subgroup in most parts of Egypt.

Keywords: banana, CMV, transmission, CP gene, RT-PCR

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Authors: Themistoklis Tzimas

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The proposed paper focuses on a triangular relationship, between human security, human development and responsibility to rebuild. This relationship constitutes the innovative contribution to the debate about human security. Human security constitutes a generic and legally binding notion, which orientates from an integrated approach the UN Charter principles and of the collective security system. Such an approach brings at the forefront of international law and of international relations not only states but non- state actors as well. Several doctrines attempt to implement the fore-mentioned approach among which the Responsibility to Protect- hereinafter R2P- doctrine and its aspect of Responsibility to Rebuild- hereinafter R2R. In this sense, R2P in general and R2R are supposed to be guided by human security imperatives. Human security because of its human- centered approach encompasses as an integral part of it, human development. Human development constitutes part of the backbone of human security, since it deals with the social and economic root- causes of the threats, which human security attempts to confront. In this sense, doctrines which orientate from human security, such as R2P and its R2R aspect should also take into account human development imperatives, in order to improve their efficiency. On the contrary though, R2R is more often linked with market- orientated policies, which are often imposed under transitional authorities, regardless of local needs. The implementation of such policies can be identified as a cause for striking failures in the framework of R2R. In addition it is a misinterpretation of the essence of human security and subsequently of R2P as well. The findings of the article, on the basis of the fore-mentioned argument is that a change must take place from a market- orientated misinterpretation of R2R to an approach attempting to implement human development doctrines, since the latter lie at the heart of human security and can be proven more effective in dealing with the root- causes of conflicts. Methodologically, the article begins with an examination of human security and of its binding nature on the basis of its orientation from the UN Charter. It also examines its significance in the framework of the collective security system. Then, follows the analysis of why and how human development constitutes an integral part of human security. At the next part it is proven that R2P in general and R2R more specifically constitute or should constitute an attempt to implement human security doctrines within the collective security system. Having built this triangular relationship it is argued that human development is proven to be the most suitable notion, so that the spirit of human security and the scopes of R2P are successfully implemented.

Keywords: human security, un charter, responsibility to protect, responsibility to rebuild, human development

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Authors: Pietro Mortini, Marco Losa

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Objective: Resection of large lesions growing into the third ventricle remains a demanding surgery, sometimes at risk of severe post-operative complications. Transcallosal and transcortical routes were considered as approaches of choice to access the third ventricle, however neurological consequences like memory loss have been reported. We report clinical results of the previously described combined interhemispheric sub-commissural translaminaterminalis approach (CISTA) for the resection of large lesions located in the third ventricle. Methods: Authors conducted a retrospective analysis on 10 patients, who were operated through the CISTA, for the resection of lesions growing into the third ventricle. Results: Total resection was achieved in all cases. Cognitive worsening occurred only in one case. No perioperative deaths were recorded and, at last follow-up, all patients were alive. One year after surgery 80% of patients had an excellent outcome with a KPS 100 and Glasgow Outcome score (GOS) Conclusion: The CISTA represents a safe and effective alternative to transcallosal and transcortical routes to resect lesions growing into the third ventricle. It allows for a multiangle trajectory to access the third ventricle with a wide working area free from critical neurovascular structures, without any section of the corpus callosum, the anterior commissure and the fornix.

Keywords: craniopharingioma, surgery, sub-commissural translaminaterminalis approach (CISTA),

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Authors: Lindsey Watson

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This research is aimed at facilitating and listening to the voices of younger children, recognising their contributions to research about the things that matter to them. Digital technology increasingly impacts on the lives of young children, therefore this study aimed at increasing children’s agency through recognising and involving their perspectives to help contribute to a wider understanding of younger children’s perceptions of online safety. Using a phenomenological approach, the paper discusses how storytelling as a creative methodological approach enabled an agentic space for children to express their views, knowledge, and perceptions of their engagement with the digital world. Setting and parental informed consent were gained in addition to an adapted approach to child assent through the use of child-friendly language and emoji stickers, which was also recorded verbally. Findings demonstrate that younger children are thinking about many aspects of digital technology and how this impacts on their lives and that storytelling as a research method is a useful tool to facilitate conversations with young children. The paper thus seeks to recognise and evaluate how creative methodologies can provide insights into children’s understanding of online safety and how this can influence practitioners and parents in supporting younger children in a digital world.

Keywords: early childhood, family, online safety, phenomenology, storytelling

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Authors: Katarina Rogulj, Ivana Racetin, Jelena Kilic

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In this study, the fuzzy logic approach (FLA) was developed for construction project management (CPM) under uncertainty and duality. The focus was on decision making in selecting the type of the glass facade for a residential-commercial building in the main design. The adoption of fuzzy sets was capable of reflecting construction managers’ reliability level over subjective judgments, and thus the robustness of the system can be achieved. An α-cuts method was utilized for discretizing the fuzzy sets in FLA. This method can communicate all uncertain information in the optimization process, taking into account the values of this information. Furthermore, FLA provides in-depth analyses of diverse policy scenarios that are related to various levels of economic aspects when it comes to the construction projects' valid decision making. The developed approach is applied to CPM to demonstrate its applicability. Analyzing the materials of glass facades, variants were defined. The development of the FLA for the CPM included relevant construction projec'ts stakeholders that were involved in the criteria definition to evaluate each variant. Using fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method (DEMATEL) comparison of the glass facade was conducted. This way, a rank, according to the priorities for inclusion into the main design, of variants is obtained. The concept was tested on a residential-commercial building in the city of Rijeka, Croatia. The newly developed methodology was then compared with the existing one. The aim of the research was to define an approach that will improve current judgments and decisions when it comes to the material selection of buildings facade as one of the most important architectural and engineering tasks in the main design. The advantage of the new methodology compared to the old one is that it includes the subjective side of the managers’ decisions, as an inevitable factor in each decision making. The proposed approach can help construction projects managers to identify the desired type of glass facade according to their preference and practical conditions, as well as facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and architectural design.

Keywords: construction projects management, DEMATEL, fuzzy logic approach, glass façade selection

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Authors: Manish Jain, Dinesh Gopalani

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Growing dependency of mankind on software technology increases the need for thorough testing of the software applications and automated testing techniques that support testing activities. We have outlined our testing strategy for performing various types of automated testing of Java applications using AspectJ which has become the de-facto standard for Aspect Oriented Programming (AOP). Likewise JUnit, a unit testing framework is the most popular Java testing tool. In this paper, we have evaluated our proposed AOP approach for automated testing and JUnit on various parameters. First we have provided the similarity between the two approaches and then we have done a detailed comparison of the two testing techniques on factors like lines of testing code, learning curve, testing of private members etc. We established that our AOP testing approach using AspectJ has got several advantages and is thus particularly more effective than JUnit.

Keywords: aspect oriented programming, AspectJ, aspects, JU-nit, software testing

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Authors: Jaehyung Jung, Kiman Kim, Heesang Eum

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Solar cell is one of the main technologies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG). Thereby, accurate estimation of greenhouse gas reduction by solar cell technology is crucial to consider strategic applications of the solar cell. The bottom-up approach using operating data such as operation time and efficiency is one of the methodologies to improve the accuracy of the estimation. In this study, alternative GHG reductions from solar cell technology were estimated by a bottom-up approach to indirect emission source (scope 2) in Korea, 2015. In addition, the scenario-based analysis was conducted to assess the effect of technological change with respect to efficiency improvement and rate of operation. In order to estimate GHG reductions from solar cell activities in operating condition levels, methodologies were derived from 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and guidelines for local government greenhouse inventories published in Korea, 2016. Indirect emission factors for electricity were obtained from Korea Power Exchange (KPX) in 2011. As a result, the annual alternative GHG reductions were estimated as 21,504 tonCO2eq, and the annual average value was 1,536 tonCO2eq per each solar cell technology. Those results of estimation showed to be 91% levels versus design of capacity. Estimation of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs) showed that the largest gas was carbon dioxide (CO2), of which up to 99% of the total individual greenhouse gases. The annual average GHG reductions from solar cell per year and unit installed capacity (MW) were estimated as 556 tonCO2eq/yr•MW. Scenario analysis of efficiency improvement by 5%, 10%, 15% increased as much as approximately 30, 61, 91%, respectively, and rate of operation as 100% increased 4% of the annual GHG reductions.

Keywords: bottom-up approach, greenhouse gas (GHG), reduction, scenario, solar cell

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Authors: Kritika Bansal, Akwinder Kaur, Shruti Gujral

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In this paper, the approach of denoising is solved by using a new hybrid technique which associates the different denoising methods. Wavelet thresholding and anisotropic diffusion filter are the two different filters in our hybrid techniques. The Wavelet thresholding removes the noise by removing the high frequency components with lesser edge preservation, whereas an anisotropic diffusion filters is based on partial differential equation, (PDE) to remove the speckle noise. This PDE approach is used to preserve the edges and provides better smoothing. So our new method proposes a combination of these two filtering methods which performs better results in terms of peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR), coefficient of correlation (COC) and equivalent no of looks (ENL).

Keywords: denoising, anisotropic diffusion filter, multiplicative noise, speckle, wavelets

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The outdoor design weather data are usually comprised of multiple meteorological elements for a 24-hour period separately, but the dependency between the elements is not well considered, which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Considering the dependency between the air temperature and global solar radiation, we used the copula approach to model the joint distributions of those two weather elements and suggest a new method of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of air temperature and global solar radiation. In this paper, the 10-year period hourly weather data from 2001 to 2010 in Osaka, Japan, was used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the result shows that the Joe-Frank copula fit for almost all hourly data. According to calculating the simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding probability of air temperature and global solar radiation, the results have shown that the maximum difference in design air temperature and global solar radiation of the day is about 2 degrees Celsius and 30W/m2, respectively.

Keywords: energy conservation, design weather database, HVAC, copula approach

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Authors: Ding He, Ping Hu

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This article presents a “networking approach” as an alternative to the “layering model” in the issue of the historic urban landscape [HUL], based on research conducted in the historic city of Jingdezhen, the center of the porcelain industry in China. This study points out that the existing HUL concept, which can be traced back to the fundamental conceptual divisions set forth by western science, tends to analyze the various elements of urban heritage (composed of hybrid natural-cultural elements) by layers and ignore the nuanced connections and interweaving structure of various elements. Instead, the networking analysis approach can respond to the challenges of complex heritage networks and to the difficulties that are often faced when modern schemes of looking and thinking of landscape in the Eurocentric heritage model encounters local knowledge of Chinese settlement. The fieldwork in this paper examines the local language regarding place names and everyday uses of urban spaces, thereby highlighting heritage systems grounded in local life and indigenous knowledge. In the context of Chinese “Fengshui”, this paper demonstrates the local knowledge of nature and local intelligence of settlement location and design. This paper suggests that industrial elements (kilns, molding rooms, piers, etc.) and spiritual elements (temples for ceramic saints or water gods) are located in their intimate natural networks. Furthermore, the functional, spiritual, and natural elements are perceived as a whole and evolve as an interactive system. This paper proposes a local and cognitive approach in heritage, which was initially developed in European Landscape Convention and historic landscape characterization projects, and yet seeks a more tentative and nuanced model based on urban ethnography in a Chinese city.

Keywords: Chinese city, historic urban landscape, heritage conservation, network

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Tagreed Alzahrani

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The syntax of quantifiers has received much attention by linguists, philosophers and logicians within different frameworks and in various languages. However, the syntax of Arabic quantifiers has received limited attention in the literature, especially in relation to floating quantifiers. There have been a few discussions of floating quantifiers in Modern Standard Arabic (henceforth, MSA), although the analysis and the properties of their counterparts in other Saudi dialects are rare. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to provide a clear description of floating quantifiers (FQs) in Hijazi dialect (henceforth, HA) by utilising the following approaches: the adverbial approach, and the derivational (stranding) analysis. For a long time, Linguists have tried to explain the floating quantifiers’ phenomenon, as exemplified in the following sentences: 1. All the friends have watched the movie. 2. The friends have all watched the movie. The adverbial approach assumes that the floating quantifier is a type of adverb, because it occupies the adverbial position next to the verb. Thus, the subject in the first example is all the friends and the subject in the second example is the friends with all becoming an adverb, as it is located in an adverbial position. However, in stranding analysis, it is argued that the floating quantifier becomes stranded when its complement has moved to a higher position in the sentence [SPEC, TP]. Therefore, both sentences have the same subject all the friends, although in second example the friends has moved to a higher position and has stranded the quantifier all. The paper will investigate the floating quantifiers in HA using both approaches. The analysis will show that neither view is entirely successful in providing a unified account for FQs in HA.

Keywords: floating quantifier, adverbial analysis, stranding approach, universal quantifier

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Authors: sulmaz Mozaffari

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Nostalgia is one of the hot-debated issues in critical psychology which has been translated as the yearning or gloom in Persian. It is defined as the regret of the sweet past and the contrast of the present with the past. The feeling of alienation and being remote from the home, remembering death, the regret of childhood and youth, separation of the beloved, remembering the glorious era of history, desire for the ancient times, and the hope for Utopia are considered as its components. Nazik Al-Malaika, a contemporary poet of Arabic literature, has depicted some shapes and dimensions of sympathy, regret and anguish in her poems. Utilizing a nostalgic approach to the past, this paper has reflected upon love, memories of childhood and youth and hope for Utopia "and also aimed at explaining each one's manifestations through a comparative perspective.

Keywords: Nazik al-malaika, poem, nostalgia, personal memory, collective memory

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Authors: Khosro Mohammadi

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The grain quality of chickpea in Iran is low and instable, which may be attributed to the evolution of cultivars with a narrow genetic base making them vulnerable to biotic stresses. Four chickpea varieties from diverse geographic origins were chosen and arranged in a randomized complete block design. Mesorhizobium Sp. cicer strain SW7 was added to all the chickpea seeds. Chickpea seeds were planted on October 9, 2013. Each genotype was sown 5 m in length, with 35 cm inter-row spacing, in 3 rows. Weeds were removed manually in all plots. Results showed that analysis of variance on the studied traits showed significant differences among genotypes for N, P, K and Fe contents of chickpea, but there is not a significant difference among Ca, Zn and Mg continents of chickpea. The experimental coefficient of variation (CV) varied from 7.3 to 15.8. In general, the CV value lower than 20% is considered to be good, indicating the accuracy of conducted experiments. The highest grain N was observed in Hashem and Jam cultivars. The highest grain P was observed in Jam cultivar. Phosphorus content (mg/100g) ranged from 142.3 to 302.3 with a mean value of 221.3. The negative correlation (-0.126) was observed between the N and P of chickpea cultivars. The highest K and Fe contents were observed in Jam cultivar.

Keywords: cultivar, genotype, nitrogen, nutrient, yield

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Authors: A. Maruf Aytekin

Abstract:

We present our approach on using continuous delivery pattern for release management. One of the key practices of agile and lean teams is the continuous delivery of new features to stakeholders. The main benefits of this approach lie in the ability to release new applications rapidly which has real strategic impact on the competitive advantage of an organization. Organizations that successfully implement Continuous Delivery have the ability to evolve rapidly to support innovation, provide stable and reliable software in more efficient ways, decrease the amount of resources need for maintenance, and lower the software delivery time and costs. One of the objectives of this paper is to elaborate a case study where IT division of Central Securities Depository Institution (MKK) of Turkey apply Continuous Delivery pattern to improve release management process.

Keywords: automation, continuous delivery, deployment, release management

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Authors: C. I. Boshoff, S. Steenkamp-Jonker

Abstract:

Cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by Echinococcus granulosus is an important parasitic infection in livestock worldwide, with severe zoonotic potential. It is important to understand the variability of Echinococcus granulosus, as genotype variations may influence lifecycle patterns, development rate, and transmission. Cystic Echinococcus samples were collected from domestic animals in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. A molecular study was performed on 14 hydatid cysts obtained from caprine, ovine and bovine livers in order to determine the Echinococcus granulosus strain present in these hosts. The sequencing of the mitochondrial cytochrome C oxidase subunit I (coxI) gene of the hydatid cysts produced sequences of 400 bp for each sample analysed. These sequences were aligned with those present in GenBank and a phylogenetic tree was constructed. Based on coxI genotype the isolates could be grouped into E. granulosus sensu stricto. The findings of the study represent a pilot molecular study on Echinococcus from domestic animals undertaken in South Africa.

Keywords: Echinococcus granulosus, genotypes, livestock, South Africa

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Authors: J. R. Büttler, T. Pham

Abstract:

Basic understanding of interfacial mechanisms is of importance for the development of polymer composites. For this purpose, we need techniques to analyze the quality of interphases, their chemical and physical interactions and their strength and fracture resistance. In order to investigate the interfacial phenomena in detail, advanced characterization techniques are favorable. Dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) using a rheological system is a sensitive tool. T-peel tests were performed with this system, to investigate the temperature-dependent peel behavior of woven textile composites. A model system was made of polyamide (PA) woven fabric laminated with films of polypropylene (PP) or PP modified by grafting with maleic anhydride (PP-g-MAH). Firstly, control measurements were performed with solely PP matrixes. Polymer melt investigations, as well as the extensional stress, extensional viscosity and extensional relaxation modulus at -10°C, 100 °C and 170 °C, demonstrate similar viscoelastic behavior for films made of PP-g-MAH and its non-modified PP-control. Frequency sweeps have shown that PP-g-MAH has a zero phase viscosity of around 1600 Pa·s and PP-control has a similar zero phase viscosity of 1345 Pa·s. Also, the gelation points are similar at 2.42*104 Pa (118 rad/s) and 2.81*104 Pa (161 rad/s) for PP-control and PP-g-MAH, respectively. Secondly, the textile composite was analyzed. The extensional stress of PA66 fabric laminated with either PP-control or PP-g-MAH at -10 °C, 25 °C and 170 °C for strain rates of 0.001 – 1 s^-1 was investigated. The laminates containing the modified PP need more stress for T-peeling. However, the strengthening effect due to the modification decreases by increasing temperature and at 170 °C, just above the melting temperature of the matrix, the difference disappears. Independent of the matrix used in the textile composite, there is a decrease of extensional stress by increasing temperature. It appears that the more viscous is the matrix, the weaker the laminar adhesion. Possibly, the measurement is influenced by the fact that the laminate becomes stiffer at lower temperatures. Adhesive lap-shear testing at room temperature supports the findings obtained with the T-peel test. Additional analysis of the textile composite at the microscopic level ensures that the fibers are well embedded in the matrix. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging of a cross section of the composite shows no gaps between the fibers and matrix. Measurements of the water contact angle show that the MAH grafted PP is more polar than the virgin-PP, and that suggests a more favorable chemical interaction of PP-g-MAH with PA, compared to the non-modified PP. In fact, this study indicates that T-peel testing by DMTA is a technique to achieve more insights into polymeric textile composites.

Keywords: dynamic mechanical thermal analysis, interphase, polyamide, polypropylene, textile composite

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