Search results for: setting prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4056

Search results for: setting prediction

2496 How Supply Chains Can Benefit from Open Innovation: Inspiration from Toyota Production System

Authors: Sam Solaimani, Jack A. A. van der Veen, Mehdi Latifi

Abstract:

Considering the increasingly VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) business market, innovation is the name of the game in contemporary business. Innovation is not solely created within the organization itself; its 'network environment' appears to be equally important for innovation. There are, at least, two streams of literature that emphasize the idea of using the extended organization to foster innovation capability, namely, Supply Chain Collaboration (SCC) (also rooted in the Lean philosophy) and Open Innovation (OI). Remarkably, these two concepts are still considered as being totally different in the sense that these appear in different streams of literature and applying different concepts in pursuing the same purposes. This paper explores the commonalities between the two concepts in order to conceptually further our understanding of how OI can effectively be applied in Supply Chain networks. Drawing on available literature in OI, SCC and Lean, the paper concludes with five principles that help firms to contextualize the implementation of OI to the peculiar setting of SC. Theoretically, the present paper aims at contributing to the relatively under-researched theme of Supply Chain Innovation. More in practical terms, the paper provides OI and SCC communities with a workable know-how to seize on and sustain OI initiatives.

Keywords: lean philosophy, open innovation, supply chain collaboration, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 323
2495 The Role of Law Corruption and Culture in Investment Fund Manager Fees

Authors: Samir Assal

Abstract:

This paper considers an international sample of venture capital and private equity funds to assess the role of law, corruption and culture in setting fund manager fees in terms of their fixed management fees, carried interest performance fees, clawbacks of fees and cash versus share distributions of fees. The data highlight a role of legal conditions in shaping fees paid to fund managers. In countries with better legal conditions, fixed fees are lower, carried interest fees are higher, clawbacks are less likely, and share distributions are more likely. These findings suggest legal conditions help to align the interests of managers and shareholders. More specifically, we examine which element of legal conditions matter most, and discover that corruption levels play a pronounced role in shaping fund manager fee contracts. We also show that cultural forces such as Hofstede’s measures of power distance and uncertainty avoidance likewise play a role in influencing fees.

Keywords: managerial compensation, incentive contracts, private equity, law and finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
2494 Experimental Chip/Tool Temperature FEM Model Calibration by Infrared Thermography: A Case Study

Authors: Riccardo Angiuli, Michele Giannuzzi, Rodolfo Franchi, Gabriele Papadia

Abstract:

Temperature knowledge in machining is fundamental to improve the numerical and FEM models used for the study of some critical process aspects, such as the behavior of the worked material and tool. The extreme conditions in which they operate make it impossible to use traditional measuring instruments; infrared thermography can be used as a valid measuring instrument for temperature measurement during metal cutting. In the study, a large experimental program on superduplex steel (ASTM A995 gr. 5A) cutting was carried out, the relevant cutting temperatures were measured by infrared thermography when certain cutting parameters changed, from traditional values to extreme ones. The values identified were used to calibrate a FEM model for the prediction of residual life of the tools. During the study, the problems related to the detection of cutting temperatures by infrared thermography were analyzed, and a dedicated procedure was developed that could be used during similar processing.

Keywords: machining, infrared thermography, FEM, temperature measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
2493 A Comparative Study of Localized Rainfall and Air Pollution between the Urban Area of Sungai Penchala with Sub-Urban and Green Area in Malaysia

Authors: Mohd N. Ahmad, Lariyah Mohd Sidek

Abstract:

The study had shown that Sungai Penchala (urban) was experiencing localized rainfall and hazardous air pollution due to urbanization. The high rainfall that partly added by localized rain had been seen as a threat of causing the flash floods and water quality deterioration in the area. The air pollution that consisted of mainly particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) gave an alarming air pollution index (API) to the surrounding area. Comparison among urban area (Sungai Penchala), sub-urban (Gombak), and green areas (Jerantut plus Temerloh) with respect to the rainfall parameters and air pollutants, it was found that the degree of intensities of the parameters was positively related with the urbanization. The air pollutants especially NO2, SO2, and CO were in tandem with the increase of the rainfall. Specifically, if the water catchment area is physically near to the urban area, then the authorities need to look into related urban development program by considering the management of emitted pollutants with respect to the ecological setting of the urban area.

Keywords: urbanization, green area localized rainfall, air pollution, sub-urban area

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2492 The Effect of Material Properties and Volumetric Changes in Phase Transformation to the Final Residual Stress of Welding Process

Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

Abstract:

The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo-Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM

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2491 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
2490 A Randomized, Controlled Trial to Test Behavior Change Techniques to Improve Low Intensity Physical Activity in Older Adults

Authors: Ciaran Friel, Jerry Suls, Mark Butler, Patrick Robles, Samantha Gordon, Frank Vicari, Karina W. Davidson

Abstract:

Physical activity guidelines focus on increasing moderate-intensity activity for older adults, but adherence to recommendations remains low. This is despite the fact that scientific evidence supports that any increase in physical activity is positively correlated with health benefits. Behavior change techniques (BCTs) have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing sedentary behavior and promoting physical activity. This pilot study uses a Personalized Trials (N-of-1) design to evaluate the efficacy of using four BCTs to promote an increase in low-intensity physical activity (2,000 steps of walking per day) in adults aged 45-75 years old. The 4 BCTs tested were goal setting, action planning, feedback, and self-monitoring. BCTs were tested in random order and delivered by text message prompts requiring participant engagement. The study recruited health system employees in the target age range, without mobility restrictions and demonstrating interest in increasing their daily activity by a minimum of 2,000 steps per day for a minimum of five days per week. Participants were sent a Fitbit® fitness tracker with an established study account and password. Participants were recommended to wear the Fitbit device 24/7 but were required to wear it for a minimum of ten hours per day. Baseline physical activity was measured by Fitbit for two weeks. In the 8-week intervention phase of the study, participants received each of the four BCTs, in random order, for a two-week period. Text message prompts were delivered daily each morning at a consistent time. All prompts required participant engagement to acknowledge receipt of the BCT message. Engagement is dependent upon the BCT message and may have included recording that a detailed plan for walking has been made or confirmed a daily step goal (action planning, goal setting). Additionally, participants may have been directed to a study dashboard to view their step counts or compare themselves to their baseline average step count (self-monitoring, feedback). At the end of each two-week testing interval, participants were asked to complete the Self-Efficacy for Walking Scale (SEW_Dur), a validated measure that assesses the participant’s confidence in walking incremental distances, and a survey measuring their satisfaction with the individual BCT that they tested. At the end of their trial, participants received a personalized summary of their step data in response to each individual BCT. The analysis will examine the novel individual-level heterogeneity of treatment effect made possible by N-of-1 design and pool results across participants to efficiently estimate the overall efficacy of the selected behavioral change techniques in increasing low-intensity walking by 2,000 steps, five days per week. Self-efficacy will be explored as the likely mechanism of action prompting behavior change. This study will inform the providers and demonstrate the feasibility of an N-of-1 study design to effectively promote physical activity as a component of healthy aging.

Keywords: aging, exercise, habit, walking

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
2489 Transporting the Setting of the Beloved Musical, Peter Pan, to Colonial India

Authors: R. Roznowski

Abstract:

This paper is an examination of a recent Michigan State University production of the classic musical, Peter Pan. In this production, approved by the licensor, the action was moved to Colonial India transforming the musical’s message to include themes of cultural identity, racism, classism and ultimately inclusion. Major character changes and casting decisions expanded the scope of the musical while still retaining the original book and score. Major changes included reframing the Darlings as British Colonials stationed in India. The Lost Boy’s as mixed race children of British officials and their Indian nannies, the Pirates were a female 'fishing fleet' a group of women sent from England to keep the British soldiers from mixing with the locals and the Michigan State University Bhangra Dance Team played the Indians in the production. Traditional Indian theatrical techniques were also employed in the storytelling. The presentation will cover the key changes to the musical, the rehearsal process, historical accuracy and audience reaction. A final analysis of cultural appropriation versus historical reframing will be examined.

Keywords: directing, history, musical theatre, producing

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2488 Demand Response from Residential Air Conditioning Load Using a Programmable Communication Thermostat

Authors: Saurabh Chanana, Monika Arora

Abstract:

Demand response is getting increased attention these days due to the increase in electricity demand and introduction of renewable resources in the existing power grid. Traditionally demand response programs involve large industrial consumers but with technological advancement, demand response is being implemented for small residential and commercial consumers also. In this paper, demand response program aims to reduce the peak demand as well as overall energy consumption of the residential customers. Air conditioners are the major reason of peak load in residential sector in summer, so a dynamic model of air conditioning load with thermostat action has been considered for applying demand response programs. A programmable communicating thermostat (PCT) is a device that uses real time pricing (RTP) signals to control the thermostat setting. A new model incorporating PCT in air conditioning load has been proposed in this paper. Results show that introduction of PCT in air conditioner is useful in reducing the electricity payments of customers as well as reducing the peak demand.

Keywords: demand response, home energy management, programmable communicating thermostat, thermostatically controlled appliances

Procedia PDF Downloads 607
2487 New Approach for Load Modeling

Authors: Slim Chokri

Abstract:

Load forecasting is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: neural network, load forecasting, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 435
2486 Modeling of Global Solar Radiation on a Horizontal Surface Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study

Authors: Laidi Maamar, Hanini Salah

Abstract:

The present work investigates the potential of artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR). The ANN is developed and optimized using three years meteorological database from 2011 to 2013 available at the meteorological station of Blida (Blida 1 university, Algeria, Latitude 36.5°, Longitude 2.81° and 163 m above mean sea level). Optimal configuration of the ANN model has been determined by minimizing the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and maximizing the correlation coefficient (R2) between observed and predicted data with the ANN model. To select the best ANN architecture, we have conducted several tests by using different combinations of parameters. A two-layer ANN model with six hidden neurons has been found as an optimal topology with (RMSE=4.036 W/m²) and (R²=0.999). A graphical user interface (GUI), was designed based on the best network structure and training algorithm, to enhance the users’ friendliness application of the model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, global solar radiation, solar energy, prediction, Algeria

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2485 The Effect of Video Games on English as a Foreign Language Students' Language Learning Motivation

Authors: Shamim Ali

Abstract:

Researchers and teachers have begun developing digital games and model environments for educational purpose; therefore this study examines the effect of a videos game on secondary school students’ language learning motivation. Secondly, it tries to find out the opportunities to develop a decision making process and simultaneously it analyzes the solutions for further implementation in educational setting. Participants were 30 male students randomly assigned to one of the following three treatments: 10 students were assigned to read the game’s story; 10 students were players, who played video game; and, and the last 10 students acted as watchers and observers, their duty was to watch their classmates play the digital video game. A language learning motivation scale was developed and it was given to the participants as a pre- and post-test. Results indicated a significant language learning motivation and the participants were quite motivated in the end. It is, thus, concluded that the use of video games can help enhance high school students’ language learning motivation. It was suggested that video games should be used as a complementary activity not as a replacement for textbook since excessive use of video games can divert the original purpose of learning.

Keywords: EFL, English as a Foreign Language, motivation, video games, EFL learners

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
2484 Possibility of Prediction of Death in SARS-Cov-2 Patients Using Coagulogram Analysis

Authors: Omonov Jahongir Mahmatkulovic

Abstract:

Purpose: To study the significance of D-dimer (DD), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), and fibrinogen coagulation parameters (Fg) in predicting the course, severity and prognosis of COVID-19. Source and method of research: From September 15, 2021, to November 5, 2021, 93 patients aged 25 to 60 with suspected COVID-19, who are under inpatient treatment at the multidisciplinary clinic of the Tashkent Medical Academy, were retrospectively examined. DD, PT, APTT, and Fg were studied in dynamics and studied changes. Results: Coagulation disorders occurred in the early stages of COVID-19 infection with an increase in DD in 54 (58%) patients and an increase in Fg in 93 (100%) patients. DD and Fg levels are associated with the clinical classification. Of the 33 patients who died, 21 had an increase in DD in the first laboratory study, 27 had an increase in DD in the second and third laboratory studies, and 15 had an increase in PT in the third test. The results of the ROC analysis of mortality showed that the AUC DD was three times 0.721, 0.801, and 0.844, respectively; PT was 0.703, 0.845, and 0.972. (P<0:01). Conclusion”: Coagulation dysfunction is more common in patients with severe and critical conditions. DD and PT can be used as important predictors of mortality from COVID-19.

Keywords: Covid19, DD, PT, Coagulogram analysis, APTT

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2483 After-Cooling Analysis of RC Structural Members Exposed to High Temperature by Using Numerical Approach

Authors: Ju-Young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak

Abstract:

This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical nonlinearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC, high temperature, after-cooling analysis, nonlinear analysis

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2482 Sensitivity Analysis of Oil Spills Modeling with ADIOS II for Iranian Fields in Persian Gulf

Authors: Farzingohar Mehrnaz, Yasemi Mehran, Esmaili Zinat, Baharlouian Maedeh

Abstract:

Aboozar (Ardeshir) and Bahregansar are the two important Iranian oilfields in Persian Gulf waters. The operation activities cause to create spills which impacted on the marine environment. Assumed spills are molded by ADIOS II (Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills) which is NOAA’s weathering oil software. Various atmospheric and marine data with different oil types are used for the modeling. Numerous scenarios for 100 bbls with mean daily air temperature and wind speed are input for 5 days. To find the model sensitivity in each setting, one parameter is changed, but the others stayed constant. In both fields, the evaporated and dispersed output values increased hence the remaining rate is reduced. The results clarified that wind speed first, second air temperature and finally oil type respectively were the most effective factors on the oil weathering process. The obtained results can help the emergency systems to predict the floating (dispersed and remained) volume spill in order to find the suitable cleanup tools and methods.

Keywords: ADIOS, modeling, oil spill, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
2481 Comparative Analysis of Sigmoidal Feedforward Artificial Neural Networks and Radial Basis Function Networks Approach for Localization in Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Ashish Payal, C. S. Rai, B. V. R. Reddy

Abstract:

With the increasing use and application of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), need has arisen to explore them in more effective and efficient manner. An important area which can bring efficiency to WSNs is the localization process, which refers to the estimation of the position of wireless sensor nodes in an ad hoc network setting, in reference to a coordinate system that may be internal or external to the network. In this paper, we have done comparison and analysed Sigmoidal Feedforward Artificial Neural Networks (SFFANNs) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) networks for developing localization framework in WSNs. The presented work utilizes the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI), measured by static node on 100 x 100 m2 grid from three anchor nodes. The comprehensive evaluation of these approaches is done using MATLAB software. The simulation results effectively demonstrate that FFANNs based sensor motes will show better localization accuracy as compared to RBF.

Keywords: localization, wireless sensor networks, artificial neural network, radial basis function, multi-layer perceptron, backpropagation, RSSI, GPS

Procedia PDF Downloads 339
2480 Tools for Analysis and Optimization of Standalone Green Microgrids

Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 282
2479 Feasibility of Risk Assessment for Type 2 Diabetes in Community Pharmacies Using Two Different Approaches: A Pilot Study in Thailand

Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

Abstract:

Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

Procedia PDF Downloads 513
2478 Hydraulic Studies on Core Components of PFBR

Authors: G. K. Pandey, D. Ramadasu, I. Banerjee, V. Vinod, G. Padmakumar, V. Prakash, K. K. Rajan

Abstract:

Detailed thermal hydraulic investigations are very essential for safe and reliable functioning of liquid metal cooled fast breeder reactors. These investigations are further more important for components with complex profile, since there is no direct correlation available in literature to evaluate the hydraulic characteristics of such components directly. In those cases available correlations for similar profile or geometries may lead to significant uncertainty in the outcome. Hence experimental approach can be adopted to evaluate these hydraulic characteristics more precisely for better prediction in reactor core components. Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), a sodium cooled pool type reactor is under advanced stage of construction at Kalpakkam, India. Several components of this reactor core require hydraulic investigation before its usage in the reactor. These hydraulic investigations on full scale models, carried out by experimental approaches using water as simulant fluid are discussed in the paper.

Keywords: fast breeder reactor, cavitation, pressure drop, reactor components

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2477 Use of Social Media Among University Student and Its Effect on the Achievement of Students

Authors: Saba Latif

Abstract:

The use of social media among university students is a topic of ongoing debate, with conflicting views on its impact on academic achievement. This study aimed to explore the relationship between social media use and academic achievement among university students and to identify factors that may contribute to positive or negative effects. The study used a mixed-methods design, including a survey of 500 university students and qualitative interviews with a subset of participants. The survey results showed that social media use was prevalent among students, with Facebook and Instagram are the most commonly used platforms. The findings also indicated a positive relationship between social media use and academic achievement, with students who reported higher levels of social media use also reporting higher GPAs. However, the qualitative interviews revealed that excessive use of social media could be a distraction that hinders academic performance, especially when students use it to procrastinate or to stay up late at night. Overall, the findings suggest that social media use can have both positive and negative effects on academic achievement among university students. Responsible and balanced use of social media, such as setting limits on usage and avoiding procrastination, may help students maximize the benefits while minimizing the risks.

Keywords: social media, university, achievement, effective, learning

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2476 Headache Masquerading as Common Psychiatric Disorders in Patients of Low Economic Class in a Tertiary Care Setting

Authors: Seema Singh Parmar, Shweta Chauhan

Abstract:

Aims & Objectives: To evaluate the presence of various psychiatric disorders in patients reporting with a headache as the only symptom. Methodology: 200 patients with the chief complain of a headache who visited the psychiatric OPD of a tertiary care were investigated. Out of them 50 who had pure psychiatric illness without any other neurological disease were investigated, and their diagnosis was made. Independent sample t-tests were applied to generate results. Results: The most common psychiatric diagnosis seen in the sample was Depression (64%) out of which 47% showed features of Depression with anxious distress. Other psychiatric disorders seen were Generalized Anxiety Disorder, Panic Attacks, Somatic Symptom Disorder and Obsessive Compulsive Disorder. For pure psychiatry, headache related illnesses female to male ratio was 1.64. Conclusion: The increasing frequency of psychiatric disorders among patients who only visit the doctor seeking treat a headache shows the need for better identification of psychiatric disorders because proper diagnosis and target of psychiatric treatment shall give complete relief to the patient’s symptomatology.

Keywords: anxiety disorders, depression, headache, panic attacks

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2475 Application of the Concept of Comonotonicity in Option Pricing

Authors: A. Chateauneuf, M. Mostoufi, D. Vyncke

Abstract:

Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a technique that provides approximate solutions to a broad range of mathematical problems. A drawback of the method is its high computational cost, especially in a high-dimensional setting, such as estimating the Tail Value-at-Risk for large portfolios or pricing basket options and Asian options. For these types of problems, one can construct an upper bound in the convex order by replacing the copula by the comonotonic copula. This comonotonic upper bound can be computed very quickly, but it gives only a rough approximation. In this paper we introduce the Comonotonic Monte Carlo (CoMC) simulation, by using the comonotonic approximation as a control variate. The CoMC is of broad applicability and numerical results show a remarkable speed improvement. We illustrate the method for estimating Tail Value-at-Risk and pricing basket options and Asian options when the logreturns follow a Black-Scholes model or a variance gamma model.

Keywords: control variate Monte Carlo, comonotonicity, option pricing, scientific computing

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2474 Far-Field Noise Prediction of Tandem Cylinders Using Incompressible Large Eddy Simulation

Authors: Jesus Ruano, Francesc Xavier Trias, Asensi Oliva

Abstract:

A three-dimensional incompressible Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is performed to compute the hydrodynamic field around a pair of tandem cylinders. Symmetry-preserving schemes will be used during this simulation in conjunction with Finite Volume Method (FVM) to obtain the hydrodynamic field around the selected geometry. A set of results consisting of pressure and velocity and the combination of them will be stored at different surfaces near the cylinders as the initial input for the second part of the study. A post-processing of the obtained results based on Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FWH) equation with a Fourier Transform of the acoustic sources will be used to compute noise at several probes located far away from the region where the hydrodynamics are computed. Directivities as well as spectral profile of the obtained acoustic field will be analyzed.

Keywords: far-field noise, Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings, finite volume method, large eddy simulation, long-span bodies

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2473 Prediction of Solidification Behavior of Al Alloy in a Cube Mold Cavity

Authors: N. P. Yadav, Deepti Verma

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the mathematical modeling for solidification of Al alloy in a cube mould cavity to study the solidification behavior of casting process. The parametric investigation of solidification process inside the cavity was performed by using computational solidification/melting model coupled with Volume of fluid (VOF) model. The implicit filling algorithm is used in this study to understand the overall process from the filling stage to solidification in a model metal casting process. The model is validated with past studied at same conditions. The solidification process are analyzed by including the effect of pouring velocity and temperature of liquid metal, effect of wall temperature as well natural convection from the wall and geometry of the cavity. These studies show the possibility of various defects during solidification process.

Keywords: buoyancy driven flow, natural convection driven flow, residual flow, secondary flow, volume of fluid

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2472 Performance Analysis of N-Tier Grid Protocol for Resource Constrained Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Jai Prakash Prasad, Suresh Chandra Mohan

Abstract:

Modern wireless sensor networks (WSN) consist of small size, low cost devices which are networked through tight wireless communications. WSN fundamentally offers cooperation, coordination among sensor networks. Potential applications of wireless sensor networks are in healthcare, natural disaster prediction, data security, environmental monitoring, home appliances, entertainment etc. The design, development and deployment of WSN based on application requirements. The WSN design performance is optimized to improve network lifetime. The sensor node resources constrain such as energy and bandwidth imposes the limitation on efficient resource utilization and sensor node management. The proposed N-Tier GRID routing protocol focuses on the design of energy efficient large scale wireless sensor network for improved performance than the existing protocol.

Keywords: energy efficient, network lifetime, sensor networks, wireless communication

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2471 Development of a Decision-Making Method by Using Machine Learning Algorithms in the Early Stage of School Building Design

Authors: Pegah Eshraghi, Zahra Sadat Zomorodian, Mohammad Tahsildoost

Abstract:

Over the past decade, energy consumption in educational buildings has steadily increased. The purpose of this research is to provide a method to quickly predict the energy consumption of buildings using separate evaluation of zones and decomposing the building to eliminate the complexity of geometry at the early design stage. To produce this framework, machine learning algorithms such as Support vector regression (SVR) and Artificial neural network (ANN) are used to predict energy consumption and thermal comfort metrics in a school as a case. The database consists of more than 55000 samples in three climates of Iran. Cross-validation evaluation and unseen data have been used for validation. In a specific label, cooling energy, it can be said the accuracy of prediction is at least 84% and 89% in SVR and ANN, respectively. The results show that the SVR performed much better than the ANN.

Keywords: early stage of design, energy, thermal comfort, validation, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
2470 Settlement Prediction for Tehran Subway Line-3 via FLAC3D and ANFIS

Authors: S. A. Naeini, A. Khalili

Abstract:

Nowadays, tunnels with different applications are developed, and most of them are related to subway tunnels. The excavation of shallow tunnels that pass under municipal utilities is very important, and the surface settlement control is an important factor in the design. The study sought to analyze the settlement and also to find an appropriate model in order to predict the behavior of the tunnel in Tehran subway line-3. The displacement in these sections is also determined by using numerical analyses and numerical modeling. In addition, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method is utilized by Hybrid training algorithm. The database pertinent to the optimum network was obtained from 46 subway tunnels in Iran and Turkey which have been constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM) with similar parameters based on type of their soil. The surface settlement was measured, and the acquired results were compared to the predicted values. The results disclosed that computing intelligence is a good substitute for numerical modeling.

Keywords: settlement, Subway Line, FLAC3D, ANFIS Method

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2469 Prediction of the Thermodynamic Properties of Hydrocarbons Using Gaussian Process Regression

Authors: N. Alhazmi

Abstract:

Knowing the thermodynamics properties of hydrocarbons is vital when it comes to analyzing the related chemical reaction outcomes and understanding the reaction process, especially in terms of petrochemical industrial applications, combustions, and catalytic reactions. However, measuring the thermodynamics properties experimentally is time-consuming and costly. In this paper, Gaussian process regression (GPR) has been used to directly predict the main thermodynamic properties - standard enthalpy of formation, standard entropy, and heat capacity -for more than 360 cyclic and non-cyclic alkanes, alkenes, and alkynes. A simple workflow has been proposed that can be applied to directly predict the main properties of any hydrocarbon by knowing its descriptors and chemical structure and can be generalized to predict the main properties of any material. The model was evaluated by calculating the statistical error R², which was more than 0.9794 for all the predicted properties.

Keywords: thermodynamic, Gaussian process regression, hydrocarbons, regression, supervised learning, entropy, enthalpy, heat capacity

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2468 Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Fluid Flow inside Concentric Heat Exchanger Using Different Inlet Geometry Configurations

Authors: Mohamed M. Abo Elazm, Ali I. Shehata, Mohamed M. Khairat Dawood

Abstract:

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program FLUENT has been used to predict the fluid flow and heat transfer distribution within concentric heat exchangers. The effect of inlet inclination angle has been investigated with Reynolds number range (3000 – 4000) and Pr=0.71. The heat exchanger is fabricated from copper concentric inner tube with a length of 750 mm. The effects of hot to cold inlet flow rate ratio (MH/MC), Reynolds's number and of inlet inclination angle of 30°, 45°, 60° and 90° are considered. The results showed that the numerical prediction shows a good agreement with experimental measurement. The results present an efficient design of concentric tube heat exchanger to enhance the heat transfer by increasing the swirling effect.

Keywords: heat transfer, swirling effect, CFD, inclination angle, concentric tube heat exchange

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2467 Analysis and Prediction of Netflix Viewing History Using Netflixlatte as an Enriched Real Data Pool

Authors: Amir Mabhout, Toktam Ghafarian, Amirhossein Farzin, Zahra Makki, Sajjad Alizadeh, Amirhossein Ghavi

Abstract:

The high number of Netflix subscribers makes it attractive for data scientists to extract valuable knowledge from the viewers' behavioural analyses. This paper presents a set of statistical insights into viewers' viewing history. After that, a deep learning model is used to predict the future watching behaviour of the users based on previous watching history within the Netflixlatte data pool. Netflixlatte in an aggregated and anonymized data pool of 320 Netflix viewers with a length 250 000 data points recorded between 2008-2022. We observe insightful correlations between the distribution of viewing time and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The presented deep learning model predicts future movie and TV series viewing habits with an average loss of 0.175.

Keywords: data analysis, deep learning, LSTM neural network, netflix

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