Search results for: survival rates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3785

Search results for: survival rates

2375 Performance of an Anaerobic Baffled Reactor (ABR) during Start-Up Period

Authors: D. M. Bassuney, W. A. Ibrahim, Medhat A. E. Moustafa

Abstract:

Appropriate start-up of an anaerobic baffled reactor (ABR) is considered to be the most delicate and important issue in the anaerobic process, and depends on several factors such as wastewater composition, reactor configuration, inoculum and operating conditions. In this work, the start-up performance of an ABR with working volume of 30 liters, fed continuously with synthetic food industrial wastewater along with semi-batch study to measure the methangenic activity by specific methanogenic activity (SMA) test were carried out at various organic loading rates (OLRs) to determine the best OLR used to start up the reactor. The comparison was based on COD removal efficiencies, start-up time, pH stability and methane production. An OLR of 1.8 Kg COD/m3d (5400 gCOD/m3 and 3 days HRT) showed best overall performance with COD removal efficiency of 94.44% after four days from the feeding and methane production of 3802 ml/L with an overall SMA of 0.36 gCH4-COD/gVS.d

Keywords: anaerobic baffled reactor, anaerobic reactor start-up, food industrial wastewater, specific methanogenic activity

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2374 Implementing the WHO Air Quality Guideline for PM2.5 Worldwide can Prevent Millions of Premature Deaths Per Year

Authors: Despina Giannadaki, Jos Lelieveld, Andrea Pozzer, John Evans

Abstract:

Outdoor air pollution by fine particles ranks among the top ten global health risk factors that can lead to premature mortality. Epidemiological cohort studies, mainly conducted in United States and Europe, have shown that the long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5μm) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Fine particulates can cause health impacts even at very low concentrations. Previously, no concentration level has been defined below which health damage can be fully prevented. The World Health Organization ambient air quality guidelines suggest an annual mean PM2.5 concentration limit of 10μg/m3. Populations in large parts of the world, especially in East and Southeast Asia, and in the Middle East, are exposed to high levels of fine particulate pollution that by far exceeds the World Health Organization guidelines. The aim of this work is to evaluate the implementation of recent air quality standards for PM2.5 in the EU, the US and other countries worldwide and estimate what measures will be needed to substantially reduce premature mortality. We investigated premature mortality attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under adults ≥ 30yrs and children < 5yrs, applying a high-resolution global atmospheric chemistry model combined with epidemiological concentration-response functions. The latter are based on the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease for 2010, assuming a ‘safe’ annual mean PM2.5 threshold of 7.3μg/m3. We estimate the global premature mortality by PM2.5 at 3.15 million/year in 2010. China is the leading country with about 1.33 million, followed by India with 575 thousand and Pakistan with 105 thousand. For the European Union (EU) we estimate 173 thousand and the United States (US) 52 thousand in 2010. Based on sensitivity calculations we tested the gains from PM2.5 control by applying the air quality guidelines (AQG) and standards of the World Health Organization (WHO), the EU, the US and other countries. To estimate potential reductions in mortality rates we take into consideration the deaths that cannot be avoided after the implementation of PM2.5 upper limits, due to the contribution of natural sources to total PM2.5 and therefore to mortality (mainly airborne desert dust). The annual mean EU limit of 25μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 18%, while within the EU the effect is negligible, indicating that the standard is largely met and that stricter limits are needed. The new US standard of 12μg/m3 would reduce premature mortality by 46% worldwide, 4% in the US and 20% in the EU. Implementing the AQG by the WHO of 10μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 54%, 76% in China and 59% in India. In the EU and US, the mortality would be reduced by 36% and 14%, respectively. Hence, following the WHO guideline will prevent 1.7 million premature deaths per year. Sensitivity calculations indicate that even small changes at the lower PM2.5 standards can have major impacts on global mortality rates.

Keywords: air quality guidelines, outdoor air pollution, particulate matter, premature mortality

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2373 Development of a Symbiotic Milk Chocolate Using Inulin and Bifidobacterium Lactis

Authors: Guity Karim, Valiollah Ayareh

Abstract:

Probiotic dairy products are those that contain biologically active components that may affect beneficially one or more target functions in the body, beyond their adequate nutritional effects. As far as chocolate milk is a popular dairy product in the country especially among children and youth, production of a symbiotic (probiotic + peribiotic) new product using chocolate milk, Bifidobacterium lactis (DSM, Netherland) and inulin (Bene, Belgium) would help to promote the nutritional and functional properties of this product. Bifidobacterium Lactis is used as a probiotic in a variety of foods, particularly dairy products like yogurt and as a probiotic bacterium has benefit effects on the human health. Inulin as a peribiotic agent is considered as functional food ingredient. Experimental studies have shown its use as bifidogenic agent. Chocolate milk with different percent of fat (1 and 2 percent), 6 % of sugar and 0.9 % cacao was made, sterilized (UHT) and supplemented with Bifidobacterium lactis and inulin (0.5 %) after cooling . A sample was made without inulin as a control. Bifidobacterium lactis population was enumerated at days 0, 4, 8 and 12 together with measurement of pH, acidity and viscosity of the samples. Also sensory property of the product was evaluated by a 15 panel testers. The number of live bacterial cells was maintained at the functional level of 106-108 cfu/ml after keeping for 12 days in refrigerated temperature (4°C). Coliforms were found to be absent in the products during the storage. Chocolate milk containing 1% fat and inulin has the best effect on the survival and number of B. lactis at day 8 and after that. Moreover, the addition of inulin did not affect the sensorial quality of the product. In this work, chocolate has been evaluated as a potential protective carrier for oral delivery of B. lactis and inulin.

Keywords: chocolate milk, synbiotic, bifidobacterium lactis, inulin

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2372 An Evolutionary Algorithm for Optimal Fuel-Type Configurations in Car Lines

Authors: Charalampos Saridakis, Stelios Tsafarakis

Abstract:

Although environmental concern is on the rise across Europe, current market data indicate that adoption rates of environmentally friendly vehicles remain extremely low. Against this background, the aim of this paper is to a) assess preferences of European consumers for clean-fuel cars and their characteristics and b) design car lines that optimize the combination of fuel types among models in the line-up. In this direction, the authors introduce a new evolutionary mechanism and implement it to stated-preference data derived from a large-scale choice-based conjoint experiment that measures consumer preferences for various factors affecting clean-fuel vehicle (CFV) adoption. The proposed two-step methodology provides interesting insights into how new and existing fuel-types can be combined in a car line that maximizes customer satisfaction.

Keywords: clean-fuel vehicles, product line design, conjoint analysis, choice experiment, differential evolution

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2371 Preliminary Results of Psychiatric Morbidity for Oncology Outpatients

Authors: Camille Plant, Katherine McGill, Pek Ang

Abstract:

Oncology patients face a host of unique challenges, which are physical, psychological and philosophical in nature. This preliminary study aimed to explore the psychiatric morbidity of oncology patients in an outpatient setting at a major public hospital in Australia. The study found that 33 patients were referred to a Psychiatrist by a Clinical Psychologist or treating Oncologist. These patients attended an outpatient Psychiatry appointment at the Calvary Mater Hospital, Newcastle, over a 7 month period (June 2017-January 2018). Of these, 45% went on to have a follow-up appointment. The Clinical Global Impressions Scale (CGI) was used to gather symptom severity scores at baseline and at follow-up. The CGI is a clinician determined instrument that provides an assessment of global functioning. It is comprised of two companion one-item measures: the CGI-Severity (CGI-S) rates mental illness severity, and the CGI-Improvement (CGI-I) rates change in condition or improvement from initiation of treatment. Patients referred to a Psychiatrist were observed to be on average in the Markedly ill approaching Severely ill range (CGI-S average of 5.5). However, those patients who attended a follow-up appointment were on average only Moderately Ill at baseline (CGI-S average of 3.9). Despite these follow patients not being severely mentally ill initially, the contact was helpful, as their CGI-S scores improved on average to the Mildly Ill range (CGI-S average of 2.8). A Mixed ANOVA revealed that there was a significant improvement in mental illness severity post-follow-up appointment (Greenhouse-Geisser .000). There was a near even proportion of males and females attending appointments (58% female), and slightly more females attended a follow-up (60% female). Males were on average more mentally ill at baseline compared to females at baseline (male average M=3.86, female average M=3.56), and males had a greater reduction in mental illness severity on average compared to females (male average M=2.71, female average 3.00). This was approaching significance (.073) and would be important to explore with a larger sample size. Change in clinical condition for follow-up patients was also recorded. It was found that more than half of patients (53%) were observed to experience Minimal improvement in attending at least one follow-up appointment. There was no change for 27% of patients, and there were no patients who were worse at follow up. As this was a preliminary study with small sample size, future research conducted could explore whether there are any significant gender differences, such as whether males experience the significantly greater reduction in symptoms of mental illness compared to females, as well as any effects of cancer stage or type on psychiatric outcomes. Future research could also investigate outcomes for those patients who concurrently access a Clinical Psychologist alongside the Psychiatrist. A limitation of the study is that the outcome measure is a brief item rating completed by the clinician.

Keywords: clinical global impressions scale, psychiatry, morbidity, oncology, outcomes, psychiatry

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2370 Experimental Study of the Modifications of the Bed of a River under Extreme Flow Conditions

Authors: A. Ghenaim, A. Terfous

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In this work, degradation phenomena in fluvial beds having uniform sediments are explored experimentally under extreme flow conditions. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a rectangular cross-section channel for different flow conditions, channel characteristics, and sediment properties at the National Institute of Applied Sciences (Strasbourg, France). Tests were carried out in two conditions: (1) equilibrium condition, where, once the steady and uniform flow conditions were achieved for a given slope and discharge, the channel was fed with variable sediment discharges until the bed-load sediment transport achieved an equilibrium condition; and (2) nonequilibrium condition, where the sediment feeding was instantaneously stopped, and the bed levels were measured over time. Experimental results enabled assessing the erosion rates and determining the empirical mathematical model to predict the bed level changes.

Keywords: fluvial beds, sediment, uniform flow conditions, nonequilibrium condition, sediment disposition, erosion

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2369 Limited Ventilation Efficacy of Prehospital I-Gel Insertion in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients

Authors: Eunhye Cho, Hyuk-Hoon Kim, Sieun Lee, Minjung Kathy Chae

Abstract:

Introduction: I-gel is a commonly used supraglottic advanced airway device in prehospital out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) allowing for minimal interruption of continuous chest compression. However, previous studies have shown that prehospital supraglottic airway had inferior neurologic outcomes and survival compared to no advanced prehospital airway with conventional bag mask ventilation. We hypothesize that continuous compression with i-gel as an advanced airway may cause insufficient ventilation compared to 30:2 chest compression with conventional BVM. Therefore, we investigated the ventilation efficacy of i-gel with the initial arterial blood gas analysis in OHCA patients visiting our ER. Material and Method: Demographics, arrest parameters including i-gel insertion, initial arterial blood gas analysis was retrospectively analysed for 119 transported OHCA patients that visited our ER. Linear regression was done to investigate the association with i-gel insertion and initial pCO2 as a surrogate of prehospital ventilation. Result: A total of 52 patients were analysed for the study. Of the patients who visited the ER during OHCA, 24 patients had i-gel insertion and 28 patients had BVM as airway management in the prehospital phase. Prehospital i-gel insertion was associated with the initial pCO2 level (B coefficient 29.9, SE 10.1, p<0.01) after adjusting for bystander CPR, cardiogenic cause of arrest, EMS call to arrival. Conclusion: Despite many limitations to the study, prehospital insertion of i-gel was associated with high initial pCO2 values in OHCA patients visiting our ER, possibly indicating insufficient ventilation with prehospital i-gel as an advanced airway and continuous chest compressions.

Keywords: arrest, I-gel, prehospital, ventilation

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2368 A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Goodness-Of-Fit Test of Multinomial Logistic Regression Model in Case-Control Studies

Authors: Chen Li-Ching

Abstract:

The multinomial logistic regression model is used popularly for inferring the relationship of risk factors and disease with multiple categories. This study based on the discrepancy between the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the cumulative distribution function to propose a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test statistic to assess adequacy of the multinomial logistic regression model for case-control data. A bootstrap procedure is presented to calculate the critical value of the proposed test statistic. Empirical type I error rates and powers of the test are performed by simulation studies. Some examples will be illustrated the implementation of the test.

Keywords: case-control studies, goodness-of-fit test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, multinomial logistic regression

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2367 Leadership Styles in the Hotel Sector and Its Effect on Employees’ Creativity and Organizational Commitment

Authors: Hatem Radwan Ibrahim Radwan

Abstract:

Leadership is crucial for hotel survival and success. It enables hotels to develop and compete effectively. This research intends to explore the implementation of six leadership styles by frontline hotel managers in four star hotels in Cairo and assess its impact on employees’ creativity and organizational commitment. The leadership patterns considered in this study includes: democratic, autocratic, laissez-faire, transformational, transactional, and ethical leaderships. Questionnaire was used as a research method to gather data. A structured survey was established and distributed on employees in Cairo’s four star hotels. A total of 284 questionnaire forms were returned and usable for statistical analysis. The results of this study identified that transactional and autocratic leadership were the prevalent styles used in four star hotels in Cairo. Two leadership styles proved to have significant high correlation and impact on employees’ creativity and organizational commitment including: transformational and democratic leadership. Besides, laissez-faire leadership was found had a smaller effect on employees’ creativity and ethical leadership had a lesser influence on employees’ commitment. The autocratic leadership had strong negative correlation and significant impact on both dependent variables. This research concludes that frontline hotel managers should adopt transformational and/or democratic leadership style in managing their subordinates.

Keywords: creativity, hotels, leadership styles, organizational commitment

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2366 Automatic Measurement of Garment Sizes Using Deep Learning

Authors: Maulik Parmar, Sumeet Sandhu

Abstract:

The online fashion industry experiences high product return rates. Many returns are because of size/fit mismatches -the size scale on labels can vary across brands, the size parameters may not capture all fit measurements, or the product may have manufacturing defects. Warehouse quality check of garment sizes can be semi-automated to improve speed and accuracy. This paper presents an approach for automatically measuring garment sizes from a single image of the garment -using Deep Learning to learn garment keypoints. The paper focuses on the waist size measurement of jeans and can be easily extended to other garment types and measurements. Experimental results show that this approach can greatly improve the speed and accuracy of today’s manual measurement process.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, deep learning, distortion, garment measurements, image warping, keypoints

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2365 Morphological Characteristics and Pollination Requirement in Red Pitaya (Hylocereus Spp.)

Authors: Dinh Ha, Tran, Chung-Ruey Yen

Abstract:

This study explored the morphological characteristics and effects of pollination methods on fruit set and characteristics in four red pitaya (Hylocereus spp.) clones. The distinctive morphological recognition and classification among pitaya clones were confirmed by the stem, flower and fruit features. The fruit production season was indicated from the beginning of May to the end of August, the beginning of September with 6-7 flowering cycles per year. The floral stage took from 15-19 days and fruit duration spent 30–32 days. VN White, fully self-compatible, obtained high fruit set rates (80.0-90.5 %) in all pollination treatments and the maximum fruit weight (402.6 g) in hand self- and (403.4 g) in open-pollination. Chaozhou 5 was partially self-compatible while Orejona and F11 were completely self-incompatible. Hand cross-pollination increased significantly fruit set (95.8; 88.4 and 90.2 %) and fruit weight (374.2; 281.8 and 416.3 g) in Chaozhou 5, Orejona, and F11, respectively. TSS contents were not much influenced by pollination methods.

Keywords: Hylocereus spp., morphology, floral phenology, pollination requirement

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2364 Numerical Investigation of Combustion Chamber Geometry on Combustion Performance and Pollutant Emissions in an Ammonia-Diesel Common Rail Dual-Fuel Engine

Authors: Youcef Sehili, Khaled Loubar, Lyes Tarabet, Mahfoudh Cerdoun, Clement Lacroix

Abstract:

As emissions regulations grow more stringent and traditional fuel sources become increasingly scarce, incorporating carbon-free fuels in the transportation sector emerges as a key strategy for mitigating the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. While the utilization of hydrogen (H2) presents significant technological challenges, as evident in the engine limitation known as knocking, ammonia (NH3) provides a viable alternative that overcomes this obstacle and offers convenient transportation, storage, and distribution. Moreover, the implementation of a dual-fuel engine using ammonia as the primary gas is promising, delivering both ecological and economic benefits. However, when employing this combustion mode, the substitution of ammonia at high rates adversely affects combustion performance and leads to elevated emissions of unburnt NH3, especially under high loads, which requires special treatment of this mode of combustion. This study aims to simulate combustion in a common rail direct injection (CRDI) dual-fuel engine, considering the fundamental geometry of the combustion chamber as well as fifteen (15) alternative proposed geometries to determine the configuration that exhibits superior engine performance during high-load conditions. The research presented here focuses on improving the understanding of the equations and mechanisms involved in the combustion of finely atomized jets of liquid fuel and on mastering the CONVERGETM code, which facilitates the simulation of this combustion process. By analyzing the effect of piston bowl shape on the performance and emissions of a diesel engine operating in dual fuel mode, this work combines knowledge of combustion phenomena with proficiency in the calculation code. To select the optimal geometry, an evaluation of the Swirl, Tumble, and Squish flow patterns was conducted for the fifteen (15) studied geometries. Variations in-cylinder pressure, heat release rate, turbulence kinetic energy, turbulence dissipation rate, and emission rates were observed, while thermal efficiency and specific fuel consumption were estimated as functions of crankshaft angle. To maximize thermal efficiency, a synergistic approach involving the enrichment of intake air with oxygen (O2) and the enrichment of primary fuel with hydrogen (H2) was implemented. Based on the results obtained, it is worth noting that the proposed geometry (T8_b8_d0.6/SW_8.0) outperformed the others in terms of flow quality, reduction of pollutants emitted with a reduction of more than 90% in unburnt NH3, and an impressive improvement in engine efficiency of more than 11%.

Keywords: ammonia, hydrogen, combustion, dual-fuel engine, emissions

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2363 Problems Faced by the Agricultural Sector and Agribusiness Development Strategy in Georgia

Authors: E. Kharaishvili, G. Erkomaishvili, M. Chavleishvili

Abstract:

The importance of agribusiness development is proved in accordance with the trends in the agricultural sector of Georgia. Agribusiness environment and the consequences of the agricultural reforms are evaluated. The factors hindering the development of agribusiness are revealed and the ways for overcoming these problems are suggested. SWOT analysis is done in order to identify the needs of agribusiness. The needs of agribusiness development in Georgia are evaluated by priorities: prevention of diseases and reduction of the harm caused by these diseases, accessibility of long-term agricultural loans with low interest rates, improving qualification of farmers, the level of education and usage of modern technologies, changes in legislation, accessibility to high quality agricultural machinery, and the development of infrastructure. Based on the outcomes of the research, agribusiness development strategies in Georgia are suggested and appropriate priorities of economic policy are determined. Conclusions are made and based on these conclusions, some recommendations are suggested.

Keywords: agribusiness development, agribusiness strategy, agribusiness in Georgia

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2362 Preoperative 3D Planning and Reconstruction of Mandibular Defects for Patients with Oral Cavity Tumors

Authors: Janis Zarins, Kristaps Blums, Oskars Radzins, Renars Deksnis, Atis Svare, Santa Salaka

Abstract:

Wide tumor resection remains the first choice method for tumors of the oral cavity. Nevertheless, remained tissue defect impacts patients functional and aesthetical outcome, which could be improved using microvascular tissue transfers. Mandibular reconstruction is challenging due to the complexity of composite tissue defects and occlusal relationships for normal eating, chewing, and pain free jaw motions. Individual 3-D virtual planning would provide better symmetry and functional outcome. The main goal of preoperative planning is to develop a customized surgical approach with patient specific cutting guides of the mandible, osteotomy guides of the fibula, pre-bended osteosynthesis plates to perform more precise reconstruction, to decrease the surgery time and reach the best outcome. Our study is based on the analysis of 32 patients operated on between 2019 to 2021. All patients underwent mandible reconstruction with vascularized fibula flaps. Patients characteristics, surgery profile, survival, functional outcome, and quality of life was evaluated. Preoperative planning provided a significant decrease of surgery time and the best arrangement of bone closely similar as before the surgery. In cases of bone asymmetry, deformity and malposition, a new mandible was created using 3D planning to restore the appearance of lower jaw anatomy and functionality.

Keywords: mandibular, 3D planning, cutting guides, fibula flap, reconstruction

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2361 Mode-Locked Fiber Laser Using Charcoal and Graphene Saturable Absorbers to Generate 20-GHz and 50-GHz Pulse Trains, Respectively

Authors: Ashiq Rahman, Sunil Thapa, Shunyao Fan, Niloy K. Dutta

Abstract:

A 20-GHz and a 50-GHz pulse train are generated using a fiber ring laser setup that incorporates Rational Harmonic Mode Locking. Two separate experiments were carried out using charcoal nanoparticles and graphene nanoparticles acting as saturable absorbers to reduce the pulse width generated from rational harmonic mode-locking (RHML). Autocorrelator trace shows that the pulse width is reduced from 5.6-ps to 3.2-ps using charcoal at 20-GHz, and to 2.7-ps using graphene at 50-GHz repetition rates, which agrees with the simulation findings. Numerical simulations have been carried out to study the effect of varying the linear and nonlinear absorbance parameters of both absorbers on output pulse widths. Experiments closely agree with the simulations.

Keywords: fiber optics, fiber lasers, mode locking, saturable absorbers

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2360 Understanding and Improving Neural Network Weight Initialization

Authors: Diego Aguirre, Olac Fuentes

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a taxonomy of weight initialization schemes used in deep learning. We survey the most representative techniques in each class and compare them in terms of overhead cost, convergence rate, and applicability. We also introduce a new weight initialization scheme. In this technique, we perform an initial feedforward pass through the network using an initialization mini-batch. Using statistics obtained from this pass, we initialize the weights of the network, so the following properties are met: 1) weight matrices are orthogonal; 2) ReLU layers produce a predetermined number of non-zero activations; 3) the output produced by each internal layer has a unit variance; 4) weights in the last layer are chosen to minimize the error in the initial mini-batch. We evaluate our method on three popular architectures, and a faster converge rates are achieved on the MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet datasets when compared to state-of-the-art initialization techniques.

Keywords: deep learning, image classification, supervised learning, weight initialization

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2359 Banking Crisis and Economic Effects of the Banking Crisis in Turkey

Authors: Sevilay Konya, Sadife Güngör, Zeynep Karaçor

Abstract:

Turkish economy is occurred depending on different factors from time to time and the banking crises of different magnitudes. Foremost among the factors which hinder the development of countries and societies- crises in the country's economy. Countries' economic growth rates affect inflation, unemployment and external trade. In this study, effect of November 2000, February 2001 and 2008 banking crisis on Turkey's economy and banking crisis will be examined and announced as conceptual. In this context, this study is investigates Turkey's GDP, inflation, unemployment and foreign trade figures. Turkey's economy affected have been identified from 2000 November 2001 February and 2008 banking crisis.

Keywords: banking crises, Turkey’s economy, economic effects, Turkey

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2358 PIV Measurements of the Instantaneous Velocities for Single and Two-Phase Flows in an Annular Duct

Authors: Marlon M. Hernández Cely, Victor E. C. Baptistella, Oscar M. H. Rodríguez

Abstract:

Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) is a well-established technique in the field of fluid flow measurement and provides instantaneous velocity fields over global domains. It has been applied to external and internal flows and in single and two-phase flows. Regarding internal flow, works about the application of PIV in annular ducts are scanty. An experimental work is presented, where flow of water is studied in an annular duct of inner diameter of 60 mm and outer diameter of 155 mm and 10.5-m length, with the goal of obtaining detailed velocity measurements. Depending on the flow rates of water, it can be laminar, transitional or turbulent. In this study, the water flow rate was kept at three different values for the annular duct, allowing the analysis of one laminar and two turbulent flows. Velocity fields and statistic quantities of the turbulent flow were calculated.

Keywords: PIV, annular duct, laminar, turbulence, velocity profile

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2357 Estimation and Forecasting with a Quantile AR Model for Financial Returns

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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2356 Effect of Silicon on Tritrophic Interaction of Cotton, Whitefly and Chrysoperla carnea

Authors: Asim Abbasi, Muhammad Sufyan

Abstract:

The present experiment was carried out to examine the effects of silicon dioxide on tritrophic interaction of cotton, whitefly, and the predator Chrysoperla carnea. Population of whitefly was maintained on silicon treated and non-treated cotton for two generations in greenhouse net cages exposed to outside temperature and luminosity. The cotton was treated with silicon dioxide twice after 15 days intervals with 200 ppm concentration. A stock rearing of the natural predator was developed in the laboratory conditions. In the bioassay eggs of the predator all at the same age were individualized in glass petri plates that will be pierced with a pin to allow aeration and maintained in an incubator at 28 ± 2°C, 70 ± 10% relative humidity and 12h photo phase. Population of whitefly stayed on silicon treated, and non-treated cotton were offered to newly hatched chrysopid larvae until the end of the larval stage, assuring a permanent supply. Feeding preference of C. carnea along with longevity, survival of each instar larvae, pupation, adult emergence, and fecundity was checked. The results revealed that there was no significant difference in the feeding preference of C. carnea among both treatments. Durations of 1st and 2nd larval instar were also at par in both treatments. However overall longevity and adult emergence were a bit lower in silicon treated whitefly treatment. This may be due to the fact that silicon reduces the nutritional quality of host because of reduced whitefly feeding on silicon treated cotton. No significant difference in 1st and 2nd larval instars and then increased larval duration in later instars suggested that the effect of silicon treated host should be checked on more than 1 generation of C. carnea to get better findings.

Keywords: Chrysoperla carnea, silicon, tritrophic, whitefly

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2355 Measuring How Brightness Mediates Auditory Salience

Authors: Baptiste Bouvier

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While we are constantly flooded with stimuli in daily life, attention allows us to select the ones we specifically process and ignore the others. Some salient stimuli may sometimes pass this filter independently of our will, in a "bottom-up" way. The role of the acoustic properties of the timbre of a sound on its salience, i.e., its ability to capture the attention of a listener, is still not well understood. We implemented a paradigm called the "additional singleton paradigm", in which participants have to discriminate targets according to their duration. This task is perturbed (higher error rates and longer response times) by the presence of an irrelevant additional sound, of which we can manipulate a feature of our choice at equal loudness. This allows us to highlight the influence of the timbre features of a sound stimulus on its salience at equal loudness. We have shown that a stimulus that is brighter than the others but not louder leads to an attentional capture phenomenon in this framework. This work opens the door to the study of the influence of any timbre feature on salience.

Keywords: attention, audition, bottom-up attention, psychoacoustics, salience, timbre

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2354 Bridging the Gap: Gender Equity in Nigerian Science Education

Authors: Onyia Comfort Ngozi, Iketaku Ifeoma Roseline

Abstract:

Inspite of the laudable goals and objectives in education, Nigerian women, still face a lot of challenges that hinder the personal and national development. There are unbalances between males and females at all levels of the science education sector in Nigeria. Educate a woman, and you educate a nation, and if you educate a man, you educate an individual. It is on this note that the paper focuses on bridging the gender gap as it concerns science education in Nigeria. Suggestions were made as measures of bridging the gender gap in Nigerian education sector. The researchers concluded that achieving gender equality will promote greater equality in employment, help postpone early marriages, reduce infant mortality rates and improve health and education for a future generation. Thus, the paper recommended that government should involve women in policy making to take care of any gender issue and bias that may be included either consciously or not, during formulation stage.

Keywords: education, gender, science education, women, equality

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2353 An Analysis of Energy Use and Input Level for Tomato Production in Turkey

Authors: Hasan Vural

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine energy equivalents of inputs and output in tomato production in Bursa province. The data in this study were collected from tomato farms in Bursa province, Karacabey and Mustafakemalpasa district. Questionnaires were administered through face-to-face interview in 2011-2012. The results of the study show that diesel have the highest rate of energy equivalency of all the inputs used in tomato production at 60,07%. The energy equivalent rate of electricity is 4,26% and the energy equivalent rate of water is 0,87%. The energy equivalent rates for human power, machinery, chemicals and water for irrigation were determined to be low in tomato production. According to the output/input ratio calculated, the energy ratio is 1,50 in tomato production in the research area. This ratio implies that the inputs used in tomato production have not been used effectively. Ineffective use of these resources also causes environmental problems.

Keywords: Tomato production, energy ratio, energy input, Turkey

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2352 Process Simulation of 1-Butene Separation from C4 Mixture by Extractive Distillation

Authors: Muhammad Naeem, Abdulrahman A. Al-Rabiah, Wasif Mughees

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Technical mixture of C4 containing 1-butene and n-butane are very close to each other with regard to their boiling points i.e. -6.3°C for 1-butene and -1°C for n-butane. Extractive distillation process is used for the separation of 1-butene from the existing mixture of C4. The solvent is the essential of extractive distillation, and an appropriate solvent plays an important role in the process economy of extractive distillation. Aspen Plus has been applied for the separation of these hydrocarbons as a simulator. Moreover, NRTL activity coefficient model was used in the simulation. This model indicated that the material balances in this separation process were accurate for several solvent flow rates. Mixture of acetonitrile and water used as a solvent and 99% pure 1-butene was separated. This simulation proposed the ratio of the feed to solvent as 1: 7.9 and 15 plates for the solvent recovery column. Previously feed to solvent ratio was more than this and the number of proposed plates were 30, which shows that the separation process can be economized.

Keywords: extractive distillation, 1-butene, aspen plus, ACN solvent

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2351 Running Head: Psychological Inflexibility and Distress

Authors: Steven M. Sanders, April T. Berry, David W. Hollingsworth

Abstract:

Previous research has shown that veterans have higher rates of mental health concerns compared to non-veteran populations. A potential risk factor for the development of mental health concerns (i.e., depression & anxiety), particularly in Black veterans, is psychological inflexibility. Psychological inflexibility, a component of Acceptance & Commitment Therapy (ACT), is a process by which behavior is expressed in ways that attempt to control emotional and psychological reactions to uncomfortable stimuli and situations rather than by direct contingencies or personal values. The present study explored the relationship between psychological inflexibility, symptoms of depression, and symptoms of anxiety in a sample of 131 Black veterans. Results demonstrated that Black veterans who endorsed psychological inflexibility also endorsed higher levels of both depression and anxiety symptomology. These findings indicate the deleterious consequences of experiencing psychological inflexibility, which could be treated through ACT.

Keywords: psychological flexibility, veteran, black, psychological distress

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2350 Effect of Clinical Depression on Automatic Speaker Verification

Authors: Sheeraz Memon, Namunu C. Maddage, Margaret Lech, Nicholas Allen

Abstract:

The effect of a clinical environment on the accuracy of the speaker verification was tested. The speaker verification tests were performed within homogeneous environments containing clinically depressed speakers only, and non-depresses speakers only, as well as within mixed environments containing different mixtures of both climatically depressed and non-depressed speakers. The speaker verification framework included the MFCCs features and the GMM modeling and classification method. The speaker verification experiments within homogeneous environments showed 5.1% increase of the EER within the clinically depressed environment when compared to the non-depressed environment. It indicated that the clinical depression increases the intra-speaker variability and makes the speaker verification task more challenging. Experiments with mixed environments indicated that the increase of the percentage of the depressed individuals within a mixed environment increases the speaker verification equal error rates.

Keywords: speaker verification, GMM, EM, clinical environment, clinical depression

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2349 Conceptualizing Thoughtful Intelligence for Sustainable Decision Making

Authors: Musarrat Jabeen

Abstract:

Thoughtful intelligence offers a sustainable position to enhance the influence of decision-makers. Thoughtful Intelligence implies the understanding to realize the impact of one’s thoughts, words and actions on the survival, dignity and development of the individuals, groups and nations. Thoughtful intelligence has received minimal consideration in the area of Decision Support Systems, with an end goal to evaluate the quantity of knowledge and its viability. This pattern degraded the imbibed contribution of thoughtful intelligence required for sustainable decision making. Given the concern, this paper concentrates on the question: How to present a model of Thoughtful Decision Support System (TDSS)? The aim of this paper is to appreciate the concepts of thoughtful intelligence and insinuate a Decision Support System based on thoughtful intelligence. Thoughtful intelligence includes three dynamic competencies: i) Realization about long term impacts of decisions that are made in a specific time and space, ii) A great sense of taking actions, iii) Intense interconnectivity with people and nature and; seven associate competencies, of Righteousness, Purposefulness, Understanding, Contemplation, Sincerity, Mindfulness, and Nurturing. The study utilizes two methods: Focused group discussion to count prevailing Decision Support Systems; 70% results of focus group discussions found six decision support systems and the positive inexistence of thoughtful intelligence among decision support systems regarding sustainable decision making. Delphi focused on defining thoughtful intelligence to model (TDSS). 65% results helped to conceptualize (definition and description) of thoughtful intelligence. TDSS is offered here as an addition in the decision making literature. The clients are top leaders.

Keywords: thoughtful intelligence, sustainable decision making, thoughtful decision support system

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2348 Numerical Modeling for Water Engineering and Obstacle Theory

Authors: Mounir Adal, Baalal Azeddine, Afifi Moulay Larbi

Abstract:

Numerical analysis is a branch of mathematics devoted to the development of iterative matrix calculation techniques. We are searching for operations optimization as objective to calculate and solve systems of equations of order n with time and energy saving for computers that are conducted to calculate and analyze big data by solving matrix equations. Furthermore, this scientific discipline is producing results with a margin of error of approximation called rates. Thus, the results obtained from the numerical analysis techniques that are held on computer software such as MATLAB or Simulink offers a preliminary diagnosis of the situation of the environment or space targets. By this we can offer technical procedures needed for engineering or scientific studies exploitable by engineers for water.

Keywords: numerical analysis methods, obstacles solving, engineering, simulation, numerical modeling, iteration, computer, MATLAB, water, underground, velocity

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2347 Artificial Intelligence in Melanoma Prognosis: A Narrative Review

Authors: Shohreh Ghasemi

Abstract:

Introduction: Melanoma is a complex disease with various clinical and histopathological features that impact prognosis and treatment decisions. Traditional methods of melanoma prognosis involve manual examination and interpretation of clinical and histopathological data by dermatologists and pathologists. However, the subjective nature of these assessments can lead to inter-observer variability and suboptimal prognostic accuracy. AI, with its ability to analyze vast amounts of data and identify patterns, has emerged as a promising tool for improving melanoma prognosis. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify studies that employed AI techniques for melanoma prognosis. The search included databases such as PubMed and Google Scholar, using keywords such as "artificial intelligence," "melanoma," and "prognosis." Studies published between 2010 and 2022 were considered. The selected articles were critically reviewed, and relevant information was extracted. Results: The review identified various AI methodologies utilized in melanoma prognosis, including machine learning algorithms, deep learning techniques, and computer vision. These techniques have been applied to diverse data sources, such as clinical images, dermoscopy images, histopathological slides, and genetic data. Studies have demonstrated the potential of AI in accurately predicting melanoma prognosis, including survival outcomes, recurrence risk, and response to therapy. AI-based prognostic models have shown comparable or even superior performance compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, melanoma, accuracy, prognosis prediction, image analysis, personalized medicine

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2346 Service Delivery Disparity Conundrum at Winnie Madikizela Mandela Local Municipality: Exploration of the Enhanced Future

Authors: Mandisi Matyana

Abstract:

Although the South African local government is doing all the best in ensuring improved service delivery for the citizens, service delivery disparity still remains the real challenge for other municipalities. The unequal distribution of services within municipal wards is causing unequal happiness among the citizens; hence others do enjoy different provided municipal services, while others do not. It is acknowledged that less access to municipal services infringes one’s rights, such as the right to human dignity and the right to life. Some of the municipal services are basic services and they are the mainstay of human survival, such as water, housing, etc. It is quite evident that the service delivery disparity could be caused by the various factors within the local municipality affairs, including both administrative and political factors. Therefore, this study is undertaken to check and evaluate the main foundations of service delivery disparity in ensuring equal development of the state, particularly for local communities. The study used the qualitative method to collect the data from the citizens of Winnie Madikizela Mandela Local Municipality. An extensive literature was also conducted in understanding the causes of service delivery disparity. Study findings prove that the service delivery disparity could be caused by factors such as political interference in administration, corruption and fraud, elevated unemployment levels, inadequate institutional capacity, etc. Therefore, the study recommends strong community participation and constant external supervision in the local government so as to encourage openness in local government to ensure fair administration towards services to be provided.

Keywords: administration, development, municipal services, service delivery disparity, Winnie Madikizela Mandela local municipality

Procedia PDF Downloads 98