Search results for: proportional hazards model

Authors: Maja Sajdak

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The aim of this paper is to present the concept of an agile enterprise model and to initiate discussion on the research assumptions of the model presented. The implementation of the research project "The agility of enterprises in the process of adapting to the environment and its changes" began in August 2014 and is planned to last three years. The article has the form of a work-in-progress paper which aims to verify and initiate a debate over the proposed research model. In the literature there are very few publications relating to research into agility; it can be concluded that the most controversial issue in this regard is the method of measuring agility. In previous studies the operationalization of agility was often fragmentary, focusing only on selected areas of agility, for example manufacturing, or analysing only selected sectors. As a result the measures created to date can only be treated as contributory to the development of precise measurement tools. This research project aims to fill a cognitive gap in the literature with regard to the conceptualization and operationalization of an agile company. Thus, the original contribution of the author of this project is the construction of a theoretical model that integrates manufacturing agility (consisting mainly in adaptation to the environment) and strategic agility (based on proactive measures). The author of this research project is primarily interested in the attributes of an agile enterprise which indicate that the company is able to rapidly adapt to changing circumstances and behave pro-actively.

Keywords: agile company, acuity, entrepreneurship, flexibility, research model, strategic leadership

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Authors: Mohammadreza Nezamirad, Azadeh Yazdi, Sepideh Amirahmadian, Nasim Sabetpour, Amirmasoud Hamedi

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In this study, the Reynolds-Stress-Navier-Stokes framework is utilized to investigate the flow inside the diesel injector nozzle. The flow is assumed to be multiphase as the formation of vapor by pressure drop is visualized. For pressure and velocity linkage, the coupled algorithm is used. Since the cavitation phenomenon inherently is unsteady, the quasi-steady approach is utilized for saving time and resources in the current study. Schnerr-Sauer cavitation model is used, which was capable of predicting flow behavior both at the initial and final steps of the cavitation process. Two different turbulent models were used in this study to clarify which one is more capable in predicting cavitation inception and super-cavitation. It was found that K-ε was more compatible with the Shnerr-Sauer cavitation model; therefore, the mentioned model is used for the rest of this study.

Keywords: CFD, RANS, cavitation, fuel, injector

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa

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Solar radiation is a green renewable energy which has the potential to answer the needs of energy problems on the period. Knowing how to estimate the strength of the solar radiation force may be one solution of sustainable energy development in an integrated manner. Unfortunately, a fairly extensive area of Indonesia is still very low availability of solar radiation data. Therefore, we need a method to estimate the exact strength of solar radiation. In this study, author used a model Reference Evaluation of Solar Transmittance, 2 Bands (REST 2). Validation of REST 2 model has been performed in Spain, India, Colorado, Saudi Arabia, and several other areas. But it is not widely used in Indonesia. Indonesian region study area is represented by the area of Semarang, Central Java. Solar radiation values estimated using REST 2 model was then verified by field data and gives average RMSE value of 6.53%. Based on the value, it can be concluded that the model REST 2 can be used to estimate the value of solar radiation in clear sky conditions in parts of Indonesia.

Keywords: estimation, solar radiation power, REST 2, solar transmittance

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Authors: C. Recommandé, J. C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

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Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, liquidity shock, non-standard intervention

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Authors: D. Subedi, S. Pradhan

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Current transformers are an integral part of power system because it provides a proportional safe amount of current for protection and measurement applications. However when the power system experiences an abnormal situation leading to huge current flow, then this huge current is proportionally injected to the protection and metering circuit. Since the protection and metering equipment’s are designed to withstand only certain amount of current with respect to time, these high currents pose a risk to man and equipment. Therefore during such instances, the CT saturation characteristics have a huge influence on the safety of both man and equipment and also on the reliability of the protection and metering system. This paper shows the effect of burden on the Accuracy Limiting factor/ Instrument security factor of current transformers and also the change in saturation characteristics of the CT’s. The response of the CT to varying levels of overcurrent at different connected burden will be captured using the data acquisition software LabVIEW. Analysis is done on the real time data gathered using LabVIEW. Variation of current transformer saturation characteristics with changes in burden will be discussed.

Keywords: accuracy limiting factor, burden, current transformer, instrument security factor, saturation characteristics

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Authors: Hee-Chang Lim

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The study aims to understand the surface pressure distribution around the bodies such as the suction pressure in the leading edge on the top and side-face when the aspect ratio of bodies and the wind direction are changed, respectively. We carried out the wind tunnel measurement and numerical simulation around a series of rectangular bodies (40^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×80^w×80^h, 160^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×40^w×80^h and 80^d×160^w×80^h in mm³) placed in a deep turbulent boundary layer. Based on a modern numerical platform, the Navier-Stokes equation with the typical 2-equation (k-ε model) and the DES (Detached Eddy Simulation) turbulence model has been calculated, and they are both compared with the measurement data. Regarding the turbulence model, the DES model makes a better prediction comparing with the k-ε model, especially when calculating the separated turbulent flow around a bluff body with sharp edged corner. In order to observe the effect of wind direction on the pressure variation around the cube (e.g., 80^d×80^w×80^h in mm), it rotates at 0º, 10º, 20º, 30º, and 45º, which stands for the salient wind directions in the tunnel. The result shows that the surface pressure variation is highly dependent upon the approaching wind direction, especially on the top and the side-face of the cube. In addition, the transverse width has a substantial effect on the variation of surface pressure around the bodies, while the longitudinal length has little or no influence.

Keywords: rectangular bodies, wind direction, aspect ratio, surface pressure distribution, wind-tunnel measurement, k-ε model, DES model, CFD

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Authors: Jugoslav Jokovic, Tijana Dimitrijevic, Nebojsa Doncov

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The goal of this paper is to investigate the possibilities and effectiveness of the TLM (Transmission Line Matrix) method for modelling of up-to-date microstrip antennas with circular geometry that have significant application in modern wireless communication systems. The coaxially fed microstrip antenna configurations with circular patch are analyzed by using the in-house 3DTLMcyl_cw solver based on computational electromagnetic TLM method adapted to the cylindrical grid and enhanced with the compact wire model. Opposed to the widely used rectangular TLM mesh, where a staircase approximation has to be used to describe curved boundaries, precise modelling of circular boundaries can be accomplished in the cylindrical grid irrespective of the mesh resolution. Using the compact wire model incorporated in cylindrical mesh, it is possible to model coaxial feed and include the influence of the real excitation in the antenna model. The conventional and inverted configuration of a coaxially fed circular patch antenna are considered, comparing the resonances obtained using TLM cylindrical model with results reached by the corresponding model in a rectangular grid as well as with experimental ones. Bearing in mind that accuracy of simulated results depends on a relevantly created model, besides structure geometry and dimensions, it is important to consider additional modelling issues, regarding appropriate mesh resolution and a relevant extension of a mesh around the considered structure that would provide convergence of the results.

Keywords: computational electromagnetic, coaxial feed, microstrip antenna, TLM modelling

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Authors: Surbhi Rani, Sunita Gakkhar

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The four-dimensional food web system consisting of two prey species for a generalist middle predator and a top predator is proposed and investigated. The middle predator is predating both the prey species with a modified Holling type-II functional response. The food web model is found to be well-posed, bounded, and dissipative. The proposed model's essential dynamical features are studied in terms of local stability. The four species' survival is explored, and persistence conditions are established. The numerical simulations reveal the persistence in the form of a chaotic attractor or stable focus. The conclusion is that providing additional food to the middle predator may help to control the food chain's chaos.

Keywords: predator-prey model, existence of equilibrium points, local stability, chaos, numerical simulations

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Authors: Shield B. Lin, Ziraguen O. Williams

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In a task to assist NASA in analyzing the dynamic forces caused by operational countermeasures of an astronaut’s exercise platform impacting the spacecraft, an active proportional-integral-derivative controller commanding a linear actuator is proposed in a vibration isolation system to regulate the movement of the exercise platform. Computer simulation shows promising results that most exciter forces can be reduced or even eliminated. This paper emphasizes on parameter uncertainties, variations and exciter force variations. Drift and variations of system parameters in the vibration isolation system for astronaut’s exercise platform are analyzed. An active controlled scheme is applied with the goals to reduce the platform displacement and to minimize the force being transmitted to the spacecraft structure. The controller must be robust enough to accommodate the wide variations of system parameters and exciter forces. Computer simulation for the vibration isolation system was performed via MATLAB/Simulink and Trick. The simulation results demonstrate the achievement of force reduction with small platform displacement under wide ranges of variations in system parameters.

Keywords: control, counterweight, isolation, vibration

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Authors: Eny Syatriana, Ardiansyah

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The purpose of recent study was to develop a learning model on writing, based on the reading texts which will be read by the students using reflection strategy. The strategy would allow the students to read the text and then they would write back the main idea and to develop the text by using their own sentences. So, the writing practice was begun by reading an interesting text, then the students would develop the text which has been read into their writing. The problem questions are (1) what kind of learning model that can develop the students writing ability? (2) what is the achievement of the students of STKIP YPUP through reflection strategy? (3) is the using of the strategy effective to develop students competence In writing? (4) in what level are the students interest toward the using of a strategy In writing subject? This development research consisted of some steps, they are (1) need analysis (2) model design (3) implementation (4) model evaluation. The need analysis was applied through discussion among the writing lecturers to create a learning model for writing subject. To see the effectiveness of the model, an experiment would be delivered for one class. The instrument and learning material would be validated by the experts. In every steps of material development, there was a learning process, where would be validated by an expert. The research used development design. These Principles and procedures or research design and development .This study, researcher would do need analysis, creating prototype, content validation, and limited empiric experiment to the sample. In each steps, there should be an assessment and revision to the drafts before continue to the next steps. The second year, the prototype would be tested empirically to four classes in STKIP YPUP for English department. Implementing the test greatly was done through the action research and followed by evaluation and validation from the experts.

Keywords: learning model, reflection, strategy, reading, writing, development

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Authors: U. Borasi, Amit Kr. Jain, Rakesh, Piyush Jain

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Data collection, data preparation, model training, model evaluation, and deployment are all processes in a typical machine learning workflow. Training data needs to be gathered and organised. This often entails collecting a sizable dataset and cleaning it to remove or correct any inaccurate or missing information. Preparing the data for use in the machine learning model requires pre-processing it after it has been acquired. This often entails actions like scaling or normalising the data, handling outliers, selecting appropriate features, reducing dimensionality, etc. This pre-processed data is then used to train a model on some machine learning algorithm. After the model has been trained, it needs to be assessed by determining metrics like accuracy, precision, and recall, utilising a test dataset. Every time a new model is built, both data pre-processing and model training—two crucial processes in the Machine learning (ML) workflow—must be carried out. Thus, there are various Machine Learning algorithms that can be employed for every single approach to data pre-processing, generating a large set of combinations to choose from. Example: for every method to handle missing values (dropping records, replacing with mean, etc.), for every scaling technique, and for every combination of features selected, a different algorithm can be used. As a result, in order to get the optimum outcomes, these tasks are frequently repeated in different combinations. This paper suggests a simple architecture for organizing this largely produced “combination set of pre-processing steps and algorithms” into an automated workflow which simplifies the task of carrying out all possibilities.

Keywords: machine learning, automation, AUTOML, architecture, operator pool, configuration, scheduler

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Authors: Zaoiai Said, Makani Abdelkadir, Tafraoui Ahmed

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Concrete material suffers from a relatively low tensile strength and deformation capacity is limited. Such defects of the concrete are very fragile and sensitive to shrinkage cracking materials. The Self- Compacting Concrete (SCC) are highly fluid concretes whose implementation without vibration. This material replaces traditional vibrated concrete mainly seen techno-economic interest it presents. The SCC has several advantages which are at the origin of their development crunching. The research is therefore to conduct a comparison in terms of rheological and mechanical performance between different formulations to find the optimal dosage for rubber granulates. Through this research, we demonstrated that it is possible to make different settings SCC composition having good rheological and mechanical properties. This study also showed that the substitution of natural coarse aggregates (NA) by coarse rubber aggregates (RA) in the composition of the SCC, contributes to a slight variation of workability in the fresh state parameters still remaining in the field of SCC required by the AFGC recommendations. The experimental results show that the compressive strengths of SCC decreased slightly by substituting NA by RA. Finally, the decrease in free shrinkage is proportional to the percentage of RA incorporated into the composition of concrete. This reduction is mainly due to the improvement of the deformability of these materials.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, coarse rubber aggregate, rheological characterization, mechanical performance, shrinkage

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Magnolia G. Martinez-Rivera, Pablo de J. Angeles-Salto, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

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In order to diminish health risks, it is of major importance to monitor air quality. However, this process is accompanied by the high costs of physical and human resources. In this context, this research is carried out with the main objective of developing a predictive model for concentrations of inhalable particles (PM10-2.5) using remote sensing. To develop the model, satellite images, mainly from Landsat 8, of the Mexico City’s Metropolitan Area were used. Using historical PM10 and PM2.5 measurements of the RAMA (Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City) and through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated in which it was possible to observe critical opportunity areas that will allow the generation of a robust model. Through the preliminary model applied to the scenes of Mexico City, three areas were identified that cause great interest due to the presumed high concentration of PM; the zones are those that present high plant density, bodies of water and soil without constructions or vegetation. To date, work continues on this line to improve the preliminary model that has been proposed. In addition, a brief analysis was made of six models, presented in articles developed in different parts of the world, this in order to visualize the optimal bands for the generation of a suitable model for Mexico City. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air quality, modeling pollution, particulate matter, remote sensing

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Authors: Ahmed Hamzi, Bryan Norman

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Having scribes help document patient records in electronic health record systems can improve hospitalists’ productivity. But hospitals need to determine the optimum number of scribes to hire to maximize scribe cost effectiveness. Scribe attendance uncertainty due to planned and unplanned absences is a primary challenge. This paper presents simulation and analytical models to determine the optimum number of scribes for a hospital to hire. Scribe staffing practices vary from one context to another; different staffing scenarios are considered where having extra attending scribes provides or does not provide additional value and utilizing on-call scribes to fill in for potentially absent scribes. These staffing scenarios are assessed for different scribe revenue ratios (ratio of the value of the scribe relative to scribe costs) ranging from 100% to 300%. The optimum solution depends on the absenteeism rate, revenue ratio, and desired service level. The analytical model obtains solutions easier and faster than the simulation model, but the simulation model is more accurate. Therefore, the analytical model’s solutions are compared with the simulation model’s solutions regarding both the number of scribes hired and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, an Excel tool has been developed to facilitate decision-makers in easily obtaining solutions using the analytical model.

Keywords: hospitalists, workload, optimization cost, economic analysis

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Authors: Michael Ray Brunt

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China has been the site of some of the most significant earthquakes in history; however, earthquake monitoring has long been the provenance of universities and research institutions. The China Digital Seismographic Network was initiated in 1983 and improved significantly during 1992-1993. Data from the CDSN is widely used by government and research institutions, and, generally, this data is not readily accessible to middle and high school students. An educational seismic network in China is needed to provide collaboration and research opportunities for students and engaging students around the country in scientific understanding of earthquake hazards and risks while promoting community awareness. In 2022, the Tsinghua International School (THIS) Seismology Team, made up of enthusiastic students and facilitated by two experienced teachers, was established. As a group, the team’s objective is to install seismographs in schools throughout China, thus creating an educational seismic network that shares data from the THIS Educational Seismic Network (THIS-ESN) and facilitates collaboration. The THIS-ESN initiative will enhance education and outreach in China about earthquake risks and hazards, introduce seismology to a wider audience, stimulate interest in research among students, and develop students’ programming, data collection and analysis skills. It will also encourage and inspire young minds to pursue science, technology, engineering, the arts, and math (STEAM) career fields. The THIS-ESN utilizes small, low-cost RaspberryShake seismographs as a powerful tool linked into a global network, giving schools and the public access to real-time seismic data from across China, increasing earthquake monitoring capabilities in the perspective areas and adding to the available data sets regionally and worldwide helping create a denser seismic network. The RaspberryShake seismograph is compatible with free seismic data viewing platforms such as SWARM, RaspberryShake web programs and mobile apps are designed specifically towards teaching seismology and seismic data interpretation, providing opportunities to enhance understanding. The RaspberryShake is powered by an operating system embedded in the Raspberry Pi, which makes it an easy platform to teach students basic computer communication concepts by utilizing processing tools to investigate, plot, and manipulate data. THIS Seismology Team believes strongly in creating opportunities for committed students to become part of the seismological community by engaging in analysis of real-time scientific data with tangible outcomes. Students will feel proud of the important work they are doing to understand the world around them and become advocates spreading their knowledge back into their homes and communities, helping to improve overall community resilience. We trust that, in studying the results seismograph stations yield, students will not only grasp how subjects like physics and computer science apply in real life, and by spreading information, we hope students across the country can appreciate how and why earthquakes bear on their lives, develop practical skills in STEAM, and engage in the global seismic monitoring effort. By providing such an opportunity to schools across the country, we are confident that we will be an agent of change for society.

Keywords: collaboration, outreach, education, seismology, earthquakes, public awareness, research opportunities

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Authors: Mounir Tichamakdj, Khaled Sandjak, Boualem Tiliouine

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The design of flexible pavements is currently carried out using a multilayer elastic theory. However, for thin-surface pavements subject to light or medium traffic volumes, the importance of the non-linear stress-strain behavior of unbound granular materials requires the use of more sophisticated numerical models for the structural design of these pavements. The simplified analysis of the nonlinear behavior of granular materials in pavement design will be developed in this study. To achieve this objective, an equivalent linear model derived from a volumetric shear stress model is used to simulate the nonlinear elastic behavior of two unlinked local granular materials often used in pavements. This model is included here to adequately incorporate material non-linearity due to stress dependence and stiffness of the granular layers in the flexible pavement analysis. The sensitivity of the pavement design criteria to the likely variations in asphalt layer thickness and the mineralogical nature of unbound granular materials commonly used in pavement structures are also evaluated.

Keywords: granular materials, linear equivalent model, non-linear behavior, pavement design, shear volumetric strain model

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Authors: Khalid Yousuf Ahmed

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At the beginning of growth period, East Asian countries achieved impressive economic growth for the decades. They transformed from agricultural economy toward industrialization and contributed to dynamic structural transformation. The achievements were driven by government-led development policies that implemented effective innovation policy to boost technological capability of local firms. Recently, most Sub-Saharan African have been showing sustainable growth. Exceptionally, Ethiopia has been recording double-digit growth for a decade. Hence, Ethiopia has claimed to follow the footstep of East Asia development model. The study is going to examine whether Ethiopia can replicate innovation and economic growth model of East Asia by using Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China as a case to illustrate their model of growth. This research will be based on empirical data gathering and extended theory of national innovation system and economic growth theory. Moreover, the methodology is based on Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) and also employing cross-countries regression analysis. The results explained that there is a significant relationship between innovation indicators and economic growth in East Asian countries while the relationship is non-existing for Ethiopia except implementing similar policies and achieving similar growth trend. Therefore, Ethiopia needs to introduce inclusive policies that give priority to improving human capital and invest on the knowledge-based economy to replicate East Asian Model.

Keywords: economic growth, FDI, endogenous growth theory, East Asia model

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Authors: Mariem Kchaou, Wiem Khlif, Faiez Gargouri

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Modeling business processes is an essential task when evaluating, improving, or documenting existing business processes. To be efficient in such tasks, a business process model (BPM) must have high structural quality and high performance. Evidently, evaluating the performance of a business process model is a necessary step to reduce time, cost, while assessing the structural quality aims to improve the understandability and the modifiability of the BPMN model. To achieve these objectives, a set of structural and performance measures have been proposed. Since the diversity of measures, we propose a framework that integrates both structural and performance aspects for classifying them. Our measure classification is based on business process model perspectives (e.g., informational, functional, organizational, behavioral, and temporal), and the elements (activity, event, actor, etc.) involved in computing the measures. Then, we implement this framework in a tool assisting the structural quality and the performance of a business process. The tool helps the designers to select an appropriate subset of measures associated with the corresponding perspective and to calculate and interpret their values in order to improve the structural quality and the performance of the model.

Keywords: performance, structural quality, perspectives, tool, classification framework, measures

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Authors: Mohamed S. Sasi, Adel M. Mlitan, Abdulfattah M. Alkherraz

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This research project aims to investigate difference in relative rates concerning phosphoryl transfer relevant to biological catalysis of DNA and RNA in the pH-independent reactions. Activated Models of DNA and RNA for alkyl-aryl phosphate diesters (with 4-nitrophenyl as a good leaving group) have successfully been prepared to gather kinetic parameters. Eyring plots for the pH–independent hydrolysis of 1 and 2 were established at different temperatures in the range 100–160 °C. These measurements have been used to provide a better estimate for the difference in relative rates between the reactivity of DNA and RNA cleavage. Eyring plot gave an extrapolated rate of kH2O = 1 × 10-10 s -1 for 1 (RNA model) and 2 (DNA model) at 25°C. Comparing the reactivity of RNA model and DNA model shows that the difference in relative rates in the pH-independent reactions is surprisingly very similar at 25°. This allows us to obtain chemical insights into how biological catalysts such as enzymes may have evolved to perform their current functions.

Keywords: DNA and RNA models, relative rates, reactivity, phosphoryl transfe

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Authors: Rutebuka Evariste, Zhang Lixiao

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Mobile phone sales and stocks showed an exponential growth in the past years globally and the number of mobile phones produced each year was surpassing one billion in 2007, this soaring growth of related e-waste deserves sufficient attentions paid to it regionally and globally as long as 40% of its total weight is made from metallic which 12 elements are identified to be highly hazardous and 12 are less harmful. Different research and methods have been used to estimate the obsolete mobile phones but none has developed a dynamic model and handle the discrepancy resulting from improper approach and error in the input data. The study aim was to develop a comprehensive dynamic system model for simulating the dynamism of e-waste production from mobile phone regardless the country or region and prevail over the previous errors. The logistic model method combined with STELLA program has been used to carry out this study. Then the simulation for Rwanda has been conducted and compared with others countries’ results as model testing and validation. Rwanda is about 1.5 million obsoletes mobile phone with 125 tons of waste in 2014 with e-waste production peak in 2017. It is expected to be 4.17 million obsoletes with 351.97 tons by 2020 along with environmental impact intensity of 21times to 2005. Thus, it is concluded through the model testing and validation that the present dynamic model is competent and able deal with mobile phone e-waste production the fact that it has responded to the previous studies questions from Czech Republic, Iran, and China.

Keywords: carrying capacity, dematerialization, logistic model, mobile phone, obsolescence, similarity, Stella, system dynamics

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Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

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Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. However, thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically' vertically integrated,' with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is a need for increasing renewable energy, such as wind and solar, in electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model, which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allowing any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

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Authors: L. Richter, J. Lübkemann, P. Nyhuis

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In order to remain competitive in what is a turbulent environment; businesses must be able to react rapidly to change. The past response to volatile market conditions was to introduce an element of flexibility to production. Nowadays, what is often required is a redesign of factory structures in order to cope with the state of constant flux. The Institute of Production Systems and Logistics is currently developing a descriptive and causal model for the redesign of plant structures as part of an ongoing research project. This article presents the first research findings attained in devising this model.

Keywords: change driven factory redesign, factory planning, plant structure, flexibility

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network model. Finally, after the training of BP neural network, the prediction values of Shanghai carbon trading price and trading volume are obtained, and the model is tested.

Keywords: Carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, BP neural network model, Shanghai City

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Ravi Kumar Pandit

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is growing a global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore the local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: climate change, community forestry, global warming, adaptation in Nepal

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Authors: Birtukan Atinkut Asmare, Bernhard Freyer, Jim Bingen

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Though it is possible to transform the farming system towards a healthy, sustainable, and toxic-free food system by reducing pesticide use both in the field and postharvest, pesticides, including those that have been banned or severely restricted from use in developed countries, are indiscriminately used in African agriculture. Drawing on social practice theory, this study is about pesticide use practices in smallholder farms and its adverse impacts on women’s health and the environment, with reference to Africa, with an empirical focus on Ethiopia. Data have been collected via integrating diverse quantitative and qualitative approaches such as household surveys (n= 318), focus group discussions (n=6), field observations (n=30), and key informant interviews (n=18), with people along the pesticide value chain, including sellers and extension workers up to women farmers. A binary logistic regression model was used to investigate the factors that influence the adoption of personal protective equipment among female headed households. The findings show that Female-headed households carried out risky and unsafe practices from pesticide purchasing up to disposal, largely motivated by material elements (such as labor, income, time, and the provisioning system) but were notably shaped by competences (skills and knowledge), and meanings (norms, values, rules, and shared ideas). The main meaning or material aspect for pesticide purchasing were the perceptions of efficacy on pests, diseases, and weeds (65%), cost and availability in smaller quantities (60.7%), and a woman’s available time and mobility (58.9%). Pesticide hazards to human health or the environment seem not to be relevant for most female headed households. Unsafe practices of pesticide use among women led to the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem degradation, let alone their and family’s health. As the regression results show, the significant factors that influenced PPE adoption among female headed households were age and retailer information (p < 0.05). In line with the empirical finding, in addition to changing individual competences through advisory services and training, a foundational shift is needed in the sociocultural environment (e.g., policy, advisory), or a change in the meanings (social norms), where women are living and working.

Keywords: biodiversity, competences, ecosystems, ethiopia, female headed households, materials, meanings, pesticide purchasing, pesticide using, social practice theory

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Authors: Abadi Berhane, Walelign Worku, Berhanu Abrha, Gebre Hadgu, Tigray

Abstract:

Sesame is an important oilseed crop in Ethiopia; which is the second most exported agricultural commodity next to coffee. However, there is poor soil fertility management and a research-led farming system for the crop. The AquaCrop model was applied as a decision-support tool; which performs a semi-quantitative approach to simulate the yield of crops under different soil fertility levels. The objective of this experiment was to calibrate and validated the AquaCrop model for simulating the growth and yield of sesame under different nitrogen fertilizer levels and to test the performance of the model as a decision-support tool for improved sesame cultivation in the study area. The experiment was laid out as a randomized complete block design (RCBD) in a factorial arrangement in the 2016, 2017, and 2018 main cropping seasons. In this experiment, four nitrogen fertilizer rates; 0, 23, 46, and 69 Kg/ha nitrogen, and three improved varieties (Setit-1, Setit-2, and Humera-1). In the meantime, growth, yield, and yield components of sesame were collected from each treatment. Coefficient of determination (R2), Root mean square error (RMSE), Normalized root mean square error (N-RMSE), Model efficiency (E), and Degree of agreement (D) were used to test the performance of the model. The results indicated that the AquaCrop model successfully simulated soil water content with R2 varying from 0.92 to 0.98, RMSE 6.5 to 13.9 mm, E 0.78 to 0.94, and D 0.95 to 0.99; and the corresponding values for AB also varied from 0.92 to 0.98, 0.33 to 0.54 tons/ha, 0.74 to 0.93, and 0.9 to 0.98, respectively. The results on the canopy cover of sesame also showed that the model acceptably simulated canopy cover with R2 varying from 0.95 to 0.99, and a RMSE of 5.3 to 8.6%. The AquaCrop model was appropriately calibrated to simulate soil water content, canopy cover, aboveground biomass, and sesame yield; the results indicated that the model adequately simulated the growth and yield of sesame under the different nitrogen fertilizer levels. The AquaCrop model might be an important tool for improved soil fertility management and yield enhancement strategies of sesame. Hence, the model might be applied as a decision-support tool in soil fertility management in sesame production.

Keywords: aquacrop model, sesame, normalized water productivity, nitrogen fertilizer

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: D. S. C. Soares, D. G. Costa, J. T. S., A. K. S. Abud, T. P. Nunes, A. M. Oliveira Júnior

Abstract:

Mathematical models of drying are used for the purpose of understanding the drying process in order to determine important parameters for design and operation of the dryer. The jackfruit is a fruit with high consumption in the Northeast and perishability. It is necessary to apply techniques to improve their conservation for longer in order to diffuse it by regions with low consumption. This study aimed to analyse several mathematical models (Page, Lewis, and Midilli) to indicate one that best fits the conditions of convective drying process using performance indicators associated with each model: accuracy (Af) and noise factors (Bf), mean square error (RMSE) and standard error of prediction (% SEP). Jackfruit drying was carried out in convective type tray dryer at a temperature of 50°C for 9 hours. It is observed that the model Midili was more accurate with Af: 1.39, Bf: 1.33, RMSE: 0.01%, and SEP: 5.34. However, the use of the Model Midilli is not appropriate for purposes of control process due to need four tuning parameters. With the performance indicators used in this paper, the Page model showed similar results with only two parameters. It is concluded that the best correlation between the experimental and estimated data is given by the Page’s model.

Keywords: drying, models, jackfruit, biotechnology

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: I. Gkolfinopoulos, N. Chijiwa

Abstract:

To evaluate the remaining capacity in concrete tensioned members, it is important to accurately estimate damage in precast concrete tendons. In this research Johnson-Cook model and damage parameters of high-strength steel material were calculated by static and dynamic uniaxial tensile tests. Replication of experimental results was achieved through finite element analysis for both single 8-noded three-dimensional element as well as the full-scale dob-bone shaped model and relevant model parameters are proposed. Finally, simulation results in terms of strain and deformation were verified using digital image correlation analysis.

Keywords: DIC analysis, Johnson-Cook, quasi-static, dynamic, rupture, tendon

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Fayssal Amrane, Azeddine Chaiba, Bruno Francois

Abstract:

In this paper, design and experimental study based on Direct Power Control (DPC) of DFIG is proposed for Stand-alone mode in Variable Speed Wind Energy Conversion System (VS-WECS). The proposed IDPC method based on robust IP (Integral-Proportional) controllers in order to control the Rotor Side Converter (RSC) by the means of the rotor current d-q axes components (Ird* and Irq*) of Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) through AC-DC-AC converter. The implementation is realized using dSPACE dS1103 card under Sub and Super-synchronous operations (means < and > of the synchronous speed “1500 rpm”). Finally, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed control using IP provides improved dynamic responses, and decoupled control of the wind turbine has driven DFIG with high performances (good reference tracking, short response time and low power error) despite for sudden variation of wind speed and rotor references currents.

Keywords: Direct Power Control (DPC), Doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS), Experimental study.

Procedia PDF Downloads 124