Search results for: regional climate model

Authors: S. Y. Cicekli

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In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.

Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Razi Khalafi

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Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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Authors: Agim Kukelii, Gevorg Sargsyan

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This study, focusing on the base regional area (county level), estimates the effect of natural disaster damages on aggregate personal income, aggregate wages, wages per worker, aggregate employment, and aggregate income transfer. The study further estimates the dynamics of personal income, employment, and wages under natural disaster shocks. Southeast Texas, located at the center of Golf Coast, is hit by meteorological and hydrological caused natural disasters yearly. On average, there are more than four natural disasters per year that cane an estimated damage average of 2.2% of real personal income. The study uses the panel data method to estimate the average effect of natural disasters on the area’s economy (personal income, wages, employment, and income transfer). It also uses Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model to study the dynamics of macroeconomic variables under natural disaster shocks. The study finds that the average effect of natural disasters is positive for personal income and income transfer and is negative for wages and employment. The PVAR and the impulse response function estimates reveal that natural disaster shocks cause a decrease in personal income, employment, and wages. However, the economy’s variables bounce back after three years. The novelty of this study rests on several aspects. First, this is the first study to investigate the effects of natural disasters on macroeconomic variables at a regional level. Second, the study uses direct measures of natural disaster damages. Third, the study estimates that the time that the local economy takes to absorb the natural disaster damages shocks is three years. This is a relatively good reaction to the local economy, therefore, adding to the “resiliency” hypothesis. The study has several implications for policymakers, businesses, and households. First, this study serves to increase the awareness of local stakeholders that natural disaster damages do worsen, macroeconomic variables, such as personal income, employment, and wages beyond the immediate damages to residential and commercial properties, physical infrastructure, and discomfort in daily lives. Second, the study estimates that these effects linger on the economy on average for three years, which would require policymakers to factor in the time area need to be on focus.

Keywords: natural disaster damages, macroeconomics effects, PVAR, panel data

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Authors: Yidan Xu, Pim Martens, Thomas Krafft

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Marine fishing, an energy-intensive activity, directly emits greenhouse gases through fuel combustion, making it a significant contributor to oceanic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and worsening climate change. China is the world’s second-largest economy and the top emitter of GHG emissions, and it carries a significant energy conservation and emission reduction burden. However, the increasing GHG emissions from marine fishing is an easily overlooked but essential issue in China. This study offers a diverse perspective by integrating the concepts of total carbon emissions, carbon intensity, and per capita carbon emissions as indicators into calculation and discussion. To better understand the GHG emissions-Gross marine fishery product (GFP) relationship and influencing factors in Chinese marine fishing, the relationship between GHG emissions and economic development in marine fishing, a comprehensive framework is developed by combining the environmental Kuznets curve, the Tapio elasticity index, and the decomposition model. Results indicated that (1) The GHG emissions increased from 16.479 to 18.601 million tons in 2001-2020, in which trawlers and gillnetter are the main source in fishing operation. (2) Total carbon emissions (TC) and CI presented the same decline as GHG emissions, while per capita carbon emissions (PC) displayed an uptrend. (32) GHG emissions and gross marine fishery product (GFP) presented an inverted U-shaped relationship in China; the turning point came in the 13th Five-year Plan period (2016-2020). (43) Most provinces strongly decoupled GFP and CI. Still, PC and TC need more effort to decouple. (54) GHG emissions promoted by an industry structure driven, though carbon intensity and industry scale aid in GHG emissions reduced. (5) Compare with TC and PC, CI has been relatively affected by COVID-19 in 2020. The rise in fish and seafood prices during COVID-19 has boosted the GFP.

Keywords: marine fishing economy, greenhouse gas emission, fishery management, green development

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Authors: Yutae Lee

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In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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Authors: Dimas Tri Anantyo, Zsa-Zsa Ayu Laksmi, Adhie Nur Radityo, Arsita Eka Rini, Gatot Irawan Sarosa

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A six-point-two-magnitude earthquake rocked Mamuju District, West Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, on 15 January 2021, causing significant health issues for the affected community, particularly among vulnerable populations such as neonates and children. The aim of this study is to examine and describe the diseases diagnosed in the pediatric population in Mamuju 14 days after the earthquake. This study uses a prospective observational study of the pediatric population presenting at West Sulawesi Regional Hospital, Mamuju Regional Public Hospital, and Bhayangkara Hospital for the period of 14 days after the earthquake. Demographic and clinical information were recorded. One hundred and fifty-three children were admitted to the health center. Children younger than six years old were the highest proportion (78%). Out of 153 children, 82 of them were male (54%). The most frequently diagnosed disease during the first and second weeks after the earthquake was respiratory problems, followed by gastrointestinal problems that showed an increase in incidence in the second week. This study found that age has a correlation with frequent disease in children after an earthquake. Respiratory and gastrointestinal problems were found to be the most common diseases among the pediatric population in Mamuju after the earthquake.

Keywords: health outcomes, pediatric population, earthquake, Mamuju

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Authors: Fakhreddin El Wali Elalaoui, Maatouk Mustapha

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The problem of global climate change isbecoming more and more serious. Therefore, there is a growing interest in renewable energy sources to minimize the impact of this phenomenon. Environmental policies are changing in different countries, including Morocco, with a greater focus on the integration and development of renewable energy projects. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the potential of solar power plants in Morocco based on two technologies: concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaics (PV). In order to perform an accurate search, we must follow a certain method to select the correct criteria. Four selection criteria were retained: climate, topography, location, and water resources. AnalyticHierarchy Process (AHP) was used to calculate the weight/importance of each criterion. Once obtained, weights are applied to the map for each criterion to produce a final ranking that ranks regions according to their potential. The results show that Morocco has strong potential for both technologies, especially in the southern region. Finally, this work is the first in the field to include the whole of Morocco in the study area.

Keywords: PV, Csp, solar energy, GIS

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Authors: Weiping Liu

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This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

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Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

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The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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Authors: Shef Amir Arasy

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In 2023, the world's population will be 7.8 billion, which has increased significantly in the last 20 years. Every country in the world is experiencing the impacts of climate change directly and indirectly. However, the community still needs to build massive infrastructure and buildings. The massive CO2 emissions which lead to climate change come from cement usage in construction activity. Bamboo is one of the most sustainable materials for reducing carbon emissions and releasing more than 30% oxygen compared to the mass of trees. Besides, bamboo harvest time is faster than other sustainable materials, around 3-4 years. Furthermore, Bamboo has a high tensile strength, which can provide ductility effectively to prevent damage to buildings during an earthquake. By the finite element method, this research analyzes bamboo configuration and connection for tall building structures under different earthquake frequencies and fire. The aim of this research is to provide proper design and connection of bamboo buildings that can be more reliable than concrete structures.

Keywords: bamboo, concrete, ductility, earthquake.

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Authors: Jhuang Jin-Jhong, Hsieh Wei-Fan

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Climate change causes natural disasters persistently. Therefore, nowadays environmental planning objective tends to the issues of respecting nature and coexisting with nature. As a result, the natural environment analysis, e.g., the analysis of topography, soil, hydrology, climate, vegetation, is highly emphasized. On the other hand, Feng Shui has been a criterion of site selection for residence in Eastern since the ancient times and has had farther influence on site selection for castles and even for temples and tombs. The primary criterion of site selection is judging the quality of Long: mountain range, Sha: nearby mountains, Shui: hydrology, Xue: foundation, Xiang: aspect, which are similar to the environmental variables of mountain range, topography, hydrology and aspect. For the reason, a lot researchers attempt to probe into the connection between the criterion of Feng Shui and environmental planning factors. Most researches only discussed with the composition and theory of space of Feng Shui, but there is no research which explained Feng Shui through the environmental field. Consequently, this study reviewed the theory of Feng Shui through the environmental planning viewpoint and assembled essential composition factors of Feng Shui. The results of this study point. From literature review and comparison of theoretical meanings, we find that the ideal principles for planning the Feng Shui environment can also be used for environmental planning. Therefore, this article uses 12 ideal environmental features used in Feng Shui to contrast the natural aspects of the environment and make comparisons with previous research and classifies the environmental factors into climate, topography, hydrology, vegetation, and soil.

Keywords: the composition of Feng Shui, environmental planning, site selection, main components of the Feng Shui environment

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Authors: Junjie Fu

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This paper explores the cultural evolution of the "city-mountain" landscape in ancient Chinese cities, tracing its origins in the regional mountain and town division within the national system. It delves into the cultural archetype of "city-mountain" landscape divine imagery and its spatial characteristics, drawing from the spatial conception of mountain worship and divine order in the model of Kunlun and Penglai. Furthermore, it examines the shift from religious to daily life influences, leading to a poetic aesthetic turn in the "city-mountain" landscape. The paper also discusses the organizational structure of the "city-mountain" poetic landscape and its role as a space for enjoyment. By studying the cultural connotations, evolving relationships, and power mechanisms of the "city-mountain" landscape, this research provides theoretical insights for the construction and development of "city-mountain" landscapes and mountain cities.

Keywords: city-mountain landscape, cultural image, divinity, landscape image, poetry

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Authors: E. Machinyise

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The main purpose of this study was to investigate the attitudes of parents and teachers towards multilingual medium of instruction in lower primary schools of Zambia. In 2013, the Government of Zambia formulated a language policy which stipulates that regional familiar languages should be used as the medium of instruction (MOI) from grade one to four in all public primary schools, while English is introduced as a subject in the second grade. This study investigated the views of parents and teachers on the use of multilingual medium of instruction in lower primary schools in order to accommodate learners who are not native speakers of regional familiar languages as well as the second languages which are official languages used in class. The study revealed that most parents suggested that teachers who teach lower primary school classes should be conversant with at least the four major local languages of Zambia (Bemba, Nyanja, Tonga and Lozi). In the same vain other parents felt that teachers teaching lower grades should not only be familiar with the regional official language but should be able to speak other dialects found in the region. Teachers teaching in lower primary grade felt that although it is difficult to speak all languages of learners in class, it is important for a teacher of lower grade class to try to accommodate children who are not speakers of the familiar languages by addressing them in the language they understand. Both teachers and parents highlighted a number of advantages of teaching children in their mother tongues. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used for the collection of data for this study. 30 teachers from selected public primary schools and 20 parents of Kapiri district and five lecturers of teacher training colleges in Central province were selected for this study. The researcher also observed class lessons in lower primary schools of Kapiri district. This study revealed that both parents and teachers are of the views that teachers teaching lower primary classes should use multilingual medium of instruction in lower primary classes so as to accommodated children of different linguistic backgrounds.

Keywords: familiar languages, medium of instruction, multilingual medium of instruction, native speakers

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Authors: Emmanuel Olamijuwon

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Despite laws against child marriage - a violation against child rights, the practice remains widespread in sub-Saharan Africa and globally partly because of persistent poverty, gender inequality, protection and the need to reinforce family ties. Using pooled data from the recent demographic and health surveys of 20-sub-Saharan African countries with a regional representative sample of 36,943 girls under 18 years, this study explores the prevalence, pattern and infant mortality implications of this marriage type while also examining its regional variations. Indications from the study are that child marriage is still very high in the region with variations above one-tenth in West, Central and Southern Africa regions except in the East African region where only about 7% of children under 18 were already married. Preliminary findings also suggest that about one-in-ten infant deaths were to child brides many of whom were residing in poor households, rural residence, unemployed and have less than secondary education. Based on these findings, it is, therefore, important that government of African countries addresses critical issues through increased policies towards increasing enrollment of girl children in schools as many of these girls are not likely to have any economic benefit to the region if the observed pattern continues.

Keywords: child marriage, infant mortality, Africa, child brides

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Authors: Fujio Akagi, Hiroaki Ito, Shin-Ichi Inage

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The aim of this study is to develop a combustion model that can be applied uniformly to laminar and turbulent premixed flames while considering the effect of the Lewis number (Le). The model considers the effect of Le on the transport equations of the reaction progress, which varies with the chemical species and temperature. The distribution of the reaction progress variable is approximated by a hyperbolic tangent function, while the other distribution of the reaction progress variable is estimated using the approximated distribution and transport equation of the reaction progress variable considering the Le. The validity of the model was evaluated under the conditions of propane with Le > 1 and methane with Le = 1 (equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1). The estimated results were found to be in good agreement with those of previous studies under all conditions. A method of introducing a turbulence model into this model is also described. It was confirmed that conventional turbulence models can be expressed as an approximate theory of this model in a unified manner.

Keywords: combustion model, laminar flame, Lewis number, turbulent flame

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Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

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Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the over pressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRA

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Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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Authors: Mohammadali Abedini Sanigy, Jiangang Fei

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In this paper, a mathematical optimization model was developed to maximize the profit in a vegetable production planning problem. It serves as a decision support system that assists farmers in land allocation to crops and harvest scheduling decisions. The developed model can handle different rotation rules in two consecutive cycles of production, which is a common practice in organic production system. Moreover, different production methods of the same crop were considered in the model formulation. The main strength of the model is that it is not restricted to predetermined production periods, which makes the planning more flexible. The model is classified as a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and formulated in PYOMO -a Python package to formulate optimization models- and solved via Gurobi and CPLEX optimizer packages. The model was tested with secondary data from 'Australian vegetable growing farms', and the results were obtained and discussed with the computational test runs. The results show that the model can successfully provide reliable solutions for real size problems.

Keywords: crop rotation, harvesting, mathematical model formulation, vegetable production

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Authors: Marisol Warthon-Medina, Jenny Plumb, Ayoub Aljawaldeh, Mark Roe, Ailsa Welch, Maria Glibetic, Paul M. Finglas

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Similar to Western Countries, the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) also presents major public health issues associated with the increased consumption of sugar, fat, and salt. Therefore, one of the policies of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) EMR is to reduce the intake of salt, sugar, and fat (Saturated fatty acids, trans fatty acids) to address the risk of non-communicable diseases (i.e. diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer) and obesity. The project objective is to assess status and provide training and capacity development in the use of improved standardized methodologies for updated food composition data, dietary intake methods, use of suitable biomarkers of nutritional value and determine health outcomes in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Training exchanges have been developed with clusters of countries created resulting from regional needs including Sudan, Egypt and Jordan; Tunisia, Morocco, and Mauritania; and other Middle Eastern countries. This capacity building will lead to the development and sustainability of up-to-date national and regional food composition databases in LMIC for use in dietary monitoring assessment in food and nutrient intakes. Workshops were organized to provide training and capacity development in the use of improved standardized methodologies for food composition and food intake. Training needs identified and short-term scientific missions organized for LMIC researchers including (1) training and knowledge exchange workshops, (2) short-term exchange of researchers, (3) development and application of protocols and (4) development of strategies to reduce sugar and fat intake. An initial training workshop, Morocco 2018 was attended by 25 participants from 10 EMR countries to review status and support development of regional food composition. 4 training exchanges are in progress. The use of improved standardized methodologies for food composition and dietary intake will produce robust measurements that will reinforce dietary monitoring and policy in LMIC. The capacity building from this project will lead to the development and sustainability of up-to-date national and regional food composition databases in EMR countries. Supported by the UK Medical Research Council, Global Challenges Research Fund, (MR/R019576/1), and the World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Keywords: dietary intake, food composition, low and middle-income countries, status.

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

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Authors: H. Al-Hajeri

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The computation of the effectiveness of turbulence enhancement surface features, such as ribs as means of promoting mixing and hence heat transfer, has attracted the continued attention of the engineering community. In this study, the simulation of a three-dimensional cooling passage is carried out employing a number of turbulence models including Durbin model. The cooling passage consists of a square section duct whose upper and lower surfaces feature staggered cuboid ribs. The main objective of this paper is to provide comparisons of the performance of the v2-f model against other established turbulence models as implemented in the commercial CFD code Ansys Fluent. The present study demonstrates that the v2-f model can successfully capture the isothermal air flow phenomena in flow over obstacles.

Keywords: CFD, cooling passage, Durbin model, turbulence model

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Authors: Pintip Vajarothai, Saad Al-Jibouri, Johannes I. M. Halman

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Public investment projects are primarily aimed at achieving development strategies to increase national economies of scale and overall improvement in a country. However, experience shows that public projects, particularly in developing countries, struggle or fail to fulfill the immediate needs of local communities. In many cases, the reason for that is that projects are selected in a subjective manner and that a major part of the problem is related to the evaluation criteria and techniques used. The evaluation process is often based on a broad strategic economic effects rather than real benefits of projects to society or on the various needs from different levels (e.g. national, regional, local) and conditions (e.g. long-term and short-term requirements). In this paper, an extensive literature review of the types of criteria used in the past by various researchers in project evaluation and selection process is carried out and the effectiveness of such criteria and techniques is discussed. The paper proposes substitute social and project sustainability criteria to improve the conditions of local people and in particular the disadvantaged groups of the communities. Furthermore, it puts forward a way for modelling the interaction between the selected criteria and the achievement of the social goals of the affected community groups. The described work is part of developing a broader decision model for public investment project selection by integrating various aspects and techniques into a practical methodology. The paper uses Thailand as a case to review what and how the various evaluation techniques are currently used and how to improve the project evaluation and selection process related to social and sustainability issues in the country. The paper also uses an example to demonstrates how to test the feasibility of various criteria and how to model the interaction between projects and communities. The proposed model could be applied to other developing and developed countries in the project evaluation and selection process to improve its effectiveness in the long run.

Keywords: evaluation criteria, developing countries, public investment, project selection methodology

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Authors: Gadisa Demie, Mesele Negash, Zerihun Asrat, Lojka Bohdan

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Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have led to significant carbon (C) emissions. Agroforestry (AF) is a suitable land-use option for tackling such declines in ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. However, it is unclear how biomass models, AF practices, and socio-ecological factors determine these roles, which hinders the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. This study aimed to estimate the ecosystem C stocks of the studied AF practices in relation to socio-ecological variables in central Ethiopia. Out of 243 AF farms inventoried, 108 were chosen at random from three AF practices to estimate their biomass and soil organic carbon. A total of 432 soil samples were collected from 0–30 and 30–60 cm soil depths; 216 samples were taken for each soil organic carbon fraction (%C) and bulk density computation. The study found that the currently developed allometric equations were the most accurate to estimate biomass C for trees growing in the landscape when compared to previous models. The study found higher overall biomass C in woodlots (165.62 Mg ha-¹) than in homegardens (134.07 Mg ha-¹) and parklands (19.98 Mg ha-¹). Conversely, overall, SOC was higher for homegardens (143.88 Mg ha-¹), but lower for parklands (53.42 Mg ha-¹). The ecosystem C stock was comparable between homegardens (277.95 Mg ha-¹) and woodlots (275.44 Mg ha-¹). The study found that elevation, wealthy levels, AF farm age, and size have a positive and significant (P < 0.05) effect on overall biomass and ecosystem C stocks but non-significant with slope (P > 0.05). Similarly, SOC increased with increasing elevation, AF farm age, and wealthy status but decreased with slope and non-significant with AF farm size. The study also showed that species diversity had a positive (P <0.05) effect on overall biomass C stocks in homegardens. The overall study highlights that AF practices have a great potential to lock up more carbon in biomass and soils; however, these potentials were determined by socioecological variables. Thus, these factors should be considered in management strategies that preserve trees in agricultural landscapes in order to mitigate climate change and support the livelihoods of farmers.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, biomass, climate change, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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Reliability and availability of power stations are extremely important in order to achieve a required level of power generation. In particular, in the hot desert climate of Kuwait, reliable power generation is extremely important because of cooling requirements at temperatures exceeding 50-centigrade degrees. In this paper, a particular power plant, named Sabiya Power Plant, which has 8 steam turbines and 13 gas turbine stations, has been studied in detail; extensive data are collected; and availability of station units are determined. Furthermore, a simulation model is developed and used to analyze the effects of different maintenance policies on availability of these stations. The results show that significant improvements can be achieved in power plant availabilities if appropriate maintenance policies are implemented.

Keywords: power plants, steam turbines, gas turbines, maintenance, availability, simulation

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Authors: Kenneth Christie

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Syria and Iraq are Arabian nightmares at the local, the regional and global levels in terms of human security and the protection of the vulnerable. Wracked by civil war, ethnic and political violence in the last 5 years in the case of Syria and 13 years in the case of Iraq, the body count now is staggering; the humanitarian crisis continues and there appears no end to this. A crisis that has claimed the lives of 200,000 people so far in Syria, sparked a humanitarian catastrophe fuelled violent Islamic extremism and exposed serious splits in the international community who appear to have no consensus. The international community’s failure to act is simply another sign of the desperate situation which has developed over conflicts that appears unsolvable in the immediate future and may be intractable in the long range. Three things are really at stake I’m going to argue in these continuing crises and how it will affect the human security dimensions of the conflict. Firstly, the protection of vulnerable individuals and civilians in the war, 2ndly, the dire consequences for regional instability as a result and thirdly the risks for minority and ethnic identities who are caught up in this, within and across these volatile borders. This paper will examine these elements and the consequences of the conflict in terms of human security, migration and development.

Keywords: human security, migration, Syria and Iraq, conflict and development

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Authors: Maba Boniface Matadi

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This paper analyses the model of Malaria endemic from the point of view of the group theoretic approach. The study identified new independent variables that lead to the transformation of the nonlinear model. Furthermore, corresponding determining equations were constructed, and new symmetries were found. As a result, the findings of the study demonstrate of the integrability of the model to present an invariant solution for the Malaria model.

Keywords: group theory, lie symmetry, invariant solutions, malaria

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Authors: Javier López

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This Paper presents the evaluation model designed for the virtual education branch of The “Universidad Manuela Beltrán, Bogotá-Colombia”. This was the result of a research, developed as a case study, which had three stages: Document review, observation, and a perception survey for teachers. In the present model, the evaluation is a cross-cutting issue to the educational process. Therefore, it consists in a group of actions and guidelines which lead to analyze the student’s learning process from the admission, during the academic training, and to the graduation. This model contributes to the evaluation components which might interest other educational institutions or might offer methodological guidance to consolidate an own model

Keywords: model, evaluation, virtual education, learning process

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Authors: Pattra Pukdeekiat, Siriluk Ruangrungrote

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This work was originated to precisely determine direct solar radiation by using atmospheric physics models since the accurate prediction of solar radiation is necessary and useful for solar energy applications including atmospheric research. The possible models and techniques for a calculation of regional direct solar radiation were challenging and compulsory for the case of unavailable instrumental measurement. The investigation was mathematically governed by six astronomical parameters i.e. declination (δ), hour angle (ω), solar time, solar zenith angle (θz), extraterrestrial radiation (Iso) and eccentricity (E0) along with two atmospheric parameters i.e. air mass (mr) and dew point temperature at Bangna meteorological station (13.67° N, 100.61° E) in Bangkok, Thailand. Analyses of five models of solar radiation determination with the assumption of clear sky were applied accompanied by three statistical tests: Mean Bias Difference (MBD), Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD) and Coefficient of determination (R2) in order to validate the accuracy of obtainable results. The calculated direct solar radiation was in a range of 491-505 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 8.41% for winter and 532-540 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 4.89% for summer 2014. Additionally, dataset of seven continuous days, representing both seasons were considered with the MBD, RMSD and R2 of -0.08, 0.25, 0.86 and -0.14, 0.35, 3.29, respectively, which belong to Kumar model for winter and CSR model for summer. In summary, the determination of direct solar radiation based on atmospheric models and empirical equations could advantageously provide immediate and reliable values of the solar components for any site in the region without a constraint of actual measurement.

Keywords: atmospheric physics models, astronomical parameters, atmospheric parameters, clear sky condition

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Authors: Alma Mendoza-Ponce, Rogelio Corona-Núñez, Florian Kraxner

Abstract:

Mexico is a megadiverse country and it has nearly halved its natural vegetation in the last century due to agricultural and livestock expansion. Impacts of land use cover change and climate change are unevenly distributed and spatial prioritization to minimize the affectations on biodiversity is crucial. Global and national efforts for prioritizing biodiversity conservation show that ~33% to 45% of Mexico should be protected. The width of these targets makes difficult to lead resources. We use a framework based on vulnerability and irreplaceability to prioritize conservation efforts in Mexico. Vulnerability considered exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity under two scenarios (business as usual, BAU based, on the SSP2 and RCP 4.5 and a Green scenario, based on the SSP1 and the RCP 2.6). Exposure to land use is the magnitude of change from natural vegetation to anthropogenic covers while exposure to climate change is the difference between current and future values for both scenarios. Sensitivity was considered as the number of endemic species of terrestrial vertebrates which are critically endangered and endangered. Adaptive capacity is used as the ration between the percentage of converted area (natural to anthropogenic) and the percentage of protected area at municipality level. The results suggest that by 2050, between 11.6 and 13.9% of Mexico show vulnerability ≥ 50%, and by 2070, between 12.0 and 14.8%, in the Green and BAU scenario, respectively. From an ecosystem perspective cloud forests, followed by tropical dry forests, natural grasslands and temperate forests will be the most vulnerable (≥ 50%). Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates; 62% of the endemic amphibians are critically endangered or endangered while 39%, 12% and 9% of the mammals, birds, and reptiles, respectively. However, the distribution of these amphibians counts for only 3.3% of the country, while mammals, birds, and reptiles in these categories represent 10%, 16% and 29% of Mexico. There are 5 municipalities out of the 2,457 that Mexico has that represent 31% of the most vulnerable areas (70%).These municipalities account for 0.05% of Mexico. This multiscale approach can be used to address resources to conservation targets as ecosystems, municipalities or species considering land use cover change, climate change and biodiversity uniqueness.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, land use change, Mexico, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: U.K. Sarkar, G. Karnatak, P. Mishal, Lianthuamluaia, S. Kumari, S.K. Das, B.K. Das

Abstract:

Inland open water fisheries provide food, income, livelihood and nutritional security to millions of fishers across the globe. However, the open water ecosystem and fisheries are threatened due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures, which are more visible in the recent six decades, making the resources vulnerable. Understanding the interaction between meteorological parameters and inland fisheries is imperative to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. As per IPCC 5th assessment report, the earth is warming at a faster rate in recent decades. Global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the decade 2006–2015 (0.87°C) was 6 times higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period. The direct and indirect impacts of climatic parameters on the ecology of fisheries ecosystem have a great bearing on fisheries due to alterations in fish physiology. The impact of meteorological factors on ecosystem health and fish food organisms brings about changes in fish diversity, assemblage, reproduction and natural recruitment. India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901–2018. The studies show that the mean air temperature in the Ganga basin has increased in the range of 0.20 - 0.47 °C and annual rainfall decreased in the range of 257-580 mm during the last three decades. The studies clearly indicate visible impacts of climatic and environmental factors on inland open water fisheries. Besides, a significant reduction in-depth and area (37.20–57.68% reduction), diversity of natural indigenous fish fauna (ranging from 22.85 to 54%) in wetlands and progression of trophic state from mesotrophic to eutrophic were recorded. In this communication, different applications of biometeorology in inland fisheries management with special reference to the assessment of ecosystem and species vulnerability to climatic variability and change have been discussed. Further, the paper discusses the impact of climate anomaly and extreme climatic events on inland fisheries and emphasizes novel modeling approaches for understanding the impact of climatic and environmental factors on reproductive phenology for identification of climate-sensitive/resilient fish species for the adoption of climate-smart fisheries in the future. Adaptation and mitigation strategies to enhance fish production and the role of culture-based fisheries and enclosure culture in converting sequestered carbon into blue carbon have also been discussed. In general, the type and direction of influence of meteorological parameters on fish biology in open water fisheries ecosystems are not adequately understood. The optimum range of meteorological parameters for sustaining inland open water fisheries is yet to be established. Therefore, the application of biometeorology in inland fisheries offers ample scope for understanding the dynamics in changing climate, which would help to develop a database on such least, addressed research frontier area. This would further help to project fisheries scenarios in changing climate regimes and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope up with adverse meteorological factors to sustain fisheries and to conserve aquatic ecosystem and biodiversity.

Keywords: biometeorology, inland fisheries, aquatic ecosystem, modeling, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 184