Search results for: college statistics course
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2766

Search results for: college statistics course

1596 Model Averaging in a Multiplicative Heteroscedastic Model

Authors: Alan Wan

Abstract:

In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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1595 Sib-Care and Attachment in Zambia and the Netherlands

Authors: Haatembo Mooya

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Cross-culturally, exclusive maternal care of infants is an exception, rather than a rule. In most traditional non-Western societies, child care is shared within the family while in most middle class Western societies parents tend to rely more on ‘hired hands’ for support. In both contexts however, a common caregiver is the sibling. Despite this, the phenomenon of sib-care has remained relatively understudied. Cultural and gender differences in sib-care and attachment were explored using a retrospective survey instrument comparing Zambian and Dutch college students. The total study sample (N = 394) comprised of 200 Zambian students from the University of Zambia and 194 Dutch students from Leiden University, the Netherlands. We tested four main hypotheses. Firstly, we hypothesized that the Zambian subjects performed more sib-care than Dutch subjects. Secondly we hypothesized that female participants performed more sib-care than males participants, both among the Zambian and Dutch subjects, especially when parents are not at home. Thirdly, we hypothesized that larger family size was associated with more sib-care. Finally, we hypothesized that securely attached participants performed more sib-care than their less securely attached peers. Results indicated that sib-care was prevalent in both Zambian and Dutch samples. Zambian subjects performed more sib-care than Dutch subjects, with females performing more sib-care than males, both when parents were at home (F(2, 244) = 62.09, p < .01) and when parents were not at home (F(2, 237) = 51.28, p < .01). We also found that family size and attachment related avoidance and anxiety were not significant predictors of sib-care. It is concluded that sib-care is understudied, not only in Africa but also in Western societies and that females perform more sib-care than males, especially when the parents are not at home. In addition, attachment related avoidance and anxiety appear to be more related to the quality than the quantity of sib-care provided.

Keywords: sibling, sib-care, attachment, Africa, Zambia, the Netherlands

Procedia PDF Downloads 646
1594 Challenges of Management of Acute Pancreatitis in Low Resource Setting

Authors: Md. Shakhawat Hossain, Jimma Hossain, Md. Naushad Ali

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Acute pancreatitis is a dangerous medical emergency in the practice of gastroenterology. Management of acute pancreatitis needs multidisciplinary approach with support starts from emergency to ICU. So, there is a chance of mismanagement in every steps, especially in low resource settings. Other factors such as patient’s financial condition, education, social custom, transport facility, referral system from periphery may also challenge the current guidelines for management. The present study is intended to determine the clinico-pathological profile, severity assessment and challenges of management of acute pancreatitis in a government laid tertiary care hospital to image the real scenario of management in a low resource place. A total 100 patients of acute pancreatitis were studied in this prospective study, held in the Department of Gastroenterology, Rangpur medical college hospital, Bangladesh from July 2017 to July 2018 within one year. Regarding severity, 85 % of the patients were mild, whereas 13 were moderately severe, and 2 had severe acute pancreatitis according to the revised Atlanta criteria. The most common etiologies of acute pancreatitis in our study were gall stone (15%) and biliary sludge (15%), whereas 54% were idiopathic. The most common challenges we faced were delay in hospital admission (59%) and delay in hospital diagnosis (20%). Others are non-adherence of patient party, and lack of investigation facility, physician’s poor knowledge about current guidelines. We were able to give early aggressive fluid to only 18% of patients as per current guideline. Conclusion: Management of acute pancreatitis as per guideline is challenging when optimum facility is lacking. So, modified guidelines for assessment and management of acute pancreatitis should be prepared for low resource setting.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis, challenges of management, severity, prognosis

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1593 Wind Turbine Wake Prediction and Validation under a Stably-Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Authors: Yilei Song, Linlin Tian, Ning Zhao

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Turbulence energetics and structures in the wake of large-scale wind turbines under the stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) can be complicated due to the presence of low-level jets (LLJs), a region of higher wind speeds than the geostrophic wind speed. With a modified one-k-equation, eddy viscosity model specified for atmospheric flows as the sub-grid scale (SGS) model, a realistic atmospheric state of the stable ABL is well reproduced by large-eddy simulation (LES) techniques. Corresponding to the precursor stably stratification, the detailed wake properties of a standard 5-MW wind turbine represented as an actuator line model are provided. An engineering model is proposed for wake prediction based on the simulation statistics and gets validated. Results confirm that the proposed wake model can provide good predictions for wind turbines under the SABL.

Keywords: large-eddy simulation, stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer, wake model, wind turbine wake

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1592 Using Project MIND - Math Is Not Difficult Strategies to Help Children with Autism Improve Mathematics Skills

Authors: Hui Fang Huang Su, Leanne Lai, Pei-Fen Li, Mei-Hwei Ho, Yu-Wen Chiu

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This study aimed to provide a practical, systematic, and comprehensive intervention for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). A pilot study of quasi-experimental pre-post intervention with control group design was conducted to evaluate if the mathematical intervention (Project MIND - Math Is Not Difficult) increases the math comprehension of children with ASD Children with ASD in the primary grades (K-1, 2) participated in math interventions to enhance their math comprehension and cognitive ability. The Bracken basic concept scale was used to evaluate subjects’ language skills, cognitive development, and school readiness. The study found that our systemic interventions of Project MIND significantly improved the mathematical and cognitive abilities in children with autism. The results of this study may lead to a major change in effective and adequate health care services for children with ASD and their families. All statistical analyses were performed with the IBM SPSS Statistics Version 25 for Windows. The significant level was set at 0.05 P-value.

Keywords: autism, mathematics, technology, family

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1591 Analyzing the Social, Cultural and Economic Impacts of Indigenous Tourism on the Indigenous Communities: Case Study of the Nubian Community in Egypt

Authors: M. Makary

Abstract:

Indigenous tourism is nowadays one of the fastest growing sections of the tourism industry. Nevertheless, it does not yet receive attention on the agenda of public tourism policies in Egypt; however, there are various tourism initiatives in indigenous areas throughout the country mainly in the Nubia region, which located in Upper Egypt, where most of Egypt's indigenous Nubians are concentrated. Considering indigenous tourism can lead to both positive and negative impacts on the indigenous communities the main aim of this study is to analyze the socio-cultural and economic impacts of the indigenous tourism on the indigenous communities in Egypt: the case study of Nubians. Qualitative and quantitative approaches of data collection were designed and applied in conducting this study. Semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and the observations are the main preliminary data collection techniques used in this study while, the secondary data were sourced from articles, statistics, dissertations, and websites. The research concludes that indigenous tourism offers a strong motivation to save the identity of the indigenous communities and to foster their economic development. However, it also has negative impacts on their society.

Keywords: indigenous tourism, sustainable tourism, Indigenous communities, Nubians

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1590 Educational Tours as a Learning Tool to the Third Years Tourism Students of De La Salle University, Dasmarinas

Authors: Jackqueline Uy, Hannah Miriam Verano, Crysler Luis Verbo, Irene Gueco

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Educational tours are part of the curriculum of the College of Tourism and Hospitality Management, De La Salle University-Dasmarinas. They are highly significant to the students, especially Tourism students. The purpose of this study was to determine how effective educational tours were as a learning tool using the Experiential Learning Theory by David Kolb. This study determined the demographic profile of the third year tourism students in terms of gender, section, educational tours joined, and monthly family income and lastly, this study determined if there is a significant difference between the demographic profile of the respondents and their assessment of educational tours as a learning tool. The researchers used a historical research design with the third-year students of the bachelor of science in tourism management as the population size and used a random sampling method. The researchers made a survey questionnaire and utilized statistical tools such as weighted mean, frequency distribution, percentage, standard deviation, T-test, and ANOVA. The result of the study answered the profile of the respondents such as the gender, section, educational tour/s joined, and family monthly income. The findings of the study showed that the 3rd year tourism management students strongly agree that educational tours are a highly effective learning tool in terms of active experimentation, concrete experience, reflective observation, and abstract conceptualisation based on the data gathered from the respondents.

Keywords: CTHM, educational tours, experiential learning theory, De La Salle University Dasmarinas, tourism

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1589 The Approach of Male and Female Spectators about the Presence of Female Spectators in Sport Stadiums of Iran

Authors: Mohammad Reza Boroumand Devlagh, Seyed Mohammad Hosein Razavi, Fatemeh Ahmadi, Azam Fazli Darzi

Abstract:

The issue of female presence in Iran stadiums has long been considered and debated by governmental experts and authorities, however, no conclusion is yielded yet. Thus, the present study has been done with the aim of investigating the approach of male and female spectators about the presence of female spectators in Iranian stadiums. The statistical population of the study includes all male and female spectators who have not experienced the live watching of male championship matches in stadiums. 224 subjects from the statistical population have selected through stratified random sampling as the sample of the study. For data collection, researcher-made questionnaire has been used whose validity has been confirmed by the university professors and its reliability has been studied and confirmed through an preliminary study. (r= 0.81). Data analysis has been done using descriptive and referential statistics in P< 0.05. The results of the study showed that male and female were meaningfully agreed with the female presence in stadiums and there is no meaningful difference between male and female approaches concerning the female spectators’ presence in sport stadiums of Iran (sig= 0.867).

Keywords: male, female spectators, Iran, sport stadiums, population

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1588 The Evaluation and Performance of SSRU Employee’s that Influence the Attitude towards Work, Job Satisfaction and Organization Commitment

Authors: Bella Llego

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The purpose of this study was to explain and empirically test the influence of attitude towards work, job satisfaction and organizational commitment of SSRU employee’s evaluation and performance. Data used in this study was primary data which were collected through Organizational Commitment Questionnaire with 1-5 Likert Scale. The respondent of this study was 200 managerial and non-managerial staff of SSRU. The statistics to analyze the data provide the descriptive by the mean, standard deviation and test hypothesis by the use of multiple regression. The result of this study is showed that attitude towards work have positive but not significant effect to job satisfaction and employees evaluation and performance. Different with attitude towards work, the organizations commitment has positive and significant influence on job satisfaction and employee performance at SSRU. It means every improvement in organization’s commitment has a positive effect toward job satisfaction and employee evaluation and performance at SSRU.

Keywords: attitude towards work, employee’s evaluation and performance, jobs satisfaction, organization commitment

Procedia PDF Downloads 448
1587 The "Street Less Traveled": Body Image and Its Relationship with Eating Attitudes, Influence of Media and Self-Esteem among College Students

Authors: Aditya Soni, Nimesh Parikh, R. A. Thakrar

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Background: A cross-sectional study looked to focus body image satisfaction, heretofore under investigated arena in our setting. This study additionally examined the relationship of body mass index, influence of media and self-esteem. Our second objective was to assess whether there was any relationship between body image dissatisfaction and gender. Methods: A cross-sectional study using body image satisfaction described in words was undertaken, which also explored relationship with body mass index (BMI), influence of media, self-esteem and other selected co-variables such as socio-demographic details, overall satisfaction in life, and particularly in academic/professional life, current health status using 5-item based Likert scale. Convenience sampling was used to select participants of both genders aged from 17 to 32 on a sample size of 303 participants. Results : The body image satisfaction had significant relationship with Body mass index (P<0.001), eating attitude (P<0.001), influence of media (P<0.001) and self-esteem (P<0.001). Students with low weight had a significantly higher prevalence of body image satisfaction while overweight students had a significantly higher prevalence of dissatisfaction (P<0.001). Females showed more concern about body image as compared to males. Conclusions: Generally, this study reveals that the eating attitude, influence of the media and self-esteem is significantly related to the body image. On an empowering note, this level needs to be saved for overall mental and sound advancement of people. Proactive preventive measures could be started in foundations on identity improvement, acknowledgement of self and individual contrasts while keeping up ideal weight and dynamic life style.

Keywords: body image, body mass index, media, self-esteem

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1586 FDI, Environmental Regulations and Innovation Performance of Chinese Enterprises

Authors: Yan Chen, Hongbing Li, Ruirui Zhai

Abstract:

Innovation driven and innovation in the process of new-type urbanization is a major strategic choice for the introduction of foreign capital and the process of economic development. This research investigates the effect of urbanization, FDI and environmental regulations on innovation performance of enterprises, based on Chinese Industrial Statistics Database of 2004 to 2007 and data at province-level. It is found that the FDI from U.S. and environmental regulations will hinder the creativity of Chinese industry through reducing the R&D of them. However, the FDI from U.S. enhances the ability of domestic enterprises to attain “compensation from innovation” following the environmental regulations. Meanwhile, we confirm that environmental regulation can contribute to the innovation spillover of FDI from U.S. Furthermore, the channel of effect is discussed. In addition, FDI from EU and Japan are further examined. Unlike the FDI from U.S., the FDI from EU and Japan both have the positive innovation spillover effect, but through the same channel referred above which exist in FDI. Further analysis based on "innovation-driven effect" of urbanization is developed, and it is found that urbanization has an innovation-driven effect on environmental regulation and FDI spillover. The regulation of FDI from the United States and the European Union outperforms the FDI from Japan at a restrained degree.

Keywords: environmental regulations, FDI, innovation-driven, innovation performance

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1585 Predict Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Artificial Neural Networks Technique: Case Study Oued El Abiod Watershed, Algeria

Authors: Adel Bougamouza, Boualam Remini, Abd El Hadi Ammari, Feteh Sakhraoui

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The assessment of sediments being carried by a river is importance for planning and designing of various water resources projects. In this study, Artificial Neural Network Techniques are used to estimate the daily suspended sediment concentration for the corresponding daily discharge flow in the upstream of Foum El Gherza dam, Biskra, Algeria. The FFNN, GRNN, and RBNN models are established for estimating current suspended sediment values. Some statistics involving RMSE and R2 were used to evaluate the performance of applied models. The comparison of three AI models showed that the RBNN model performed better than the FFNN and GRNN models with R2 = 0.967 and RMSE= 5.313 mg/l. Therefore, the ANN model had capability to improve nonlinear relationships between discharge flow and suspended sediment with reasonable precision.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Oued Abiod watershed, feedforward network, generalized regression network, radial basis network, sediment concentration

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1584 Determinants of Selenium Intake in a High HIV Prevalence Fishing Community in Bondo District, Kenya

Authors: Samwel Boaz Otieno, Fred Were, Ephantus Kabiru, Kaunda Waza

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A study was done to establish determinants of selenium intake in a high HIV prevalence fishing community in the Pala Bondo district, Kenya. It was established that most of the respondents (61%) were small holder Farmers and Fishermen {χ2 (1, N=386) p<0.000}, and that most of them (91.2%) had up to college level education {χ2.(1, N=386) p<0.000}, while the number of males and females were not significantly different {χ (1, N=386) p=0.263} and 83.5% of respondents were married {χ2 (1, N=386) p=0.000}. The study showed that adults take on average 2.68 meals a day (N=382, SD=0.603), while children take 3.02 meals (N=386, SD=1.031) a day, and that in most households (82.6%) food is prepared by the women {χ2 (1, N=386) p=0.000} and further that 50% of foods eaten in that community are purchased {χ2 (1, N=386)=0.1818, p=0.6698}. The foods eaten by 75.2% of the respondents were Oreochromis niloticus, Lates niloticus, and Sorghum bicolour, 64.1% vegetables and that both children and adults eat same types of food, and further that traditional foods which have become extinct are mainly vegetables (46%). The study established that selenium levels in foods eaten in Pala sub-locations varies with traditional vegetables having higher levels of selenium; for example, Laurnea cornuta (148.5 mg/kg), Cleome gynandra (121.5 mg/kg), Vignia ungulata (21.97 mg/kg), while Rastrineobola argentea (51 mg/kg), Lates niloticus (0), Oreochromis niloticus (0) Sorgum bicolour (19.97 mg/kg), and Sorgum bicolour (0). The study showed that there is an inverse relationship between foods eaten and selenium levels {RR=1.21, p=0.000}, with foods eaten by 75.2% of respondents (Oreochromis niloticus/Lates niloticus) having no detectable selenium. The four soil types identified in the study area had varying selenium levels with pleat loam (13.3 mg/kg), sandy loam (10.7 mg/kg), clay (2.8 mg/kg) and loam (4.8 mg/kg). It was concluded from this study that for the foods eaten by most of the respondents the selenium levels were below Daily Reference Intake.

Keywords: determinants, HIV, food, fishing, Selenium

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1583 Relationship between Driving under the Influence and Traffic Safety

Authors: Eun Hak Lee, Young-Hyun Seo, Hosuk Shin, Seung-Young Kho

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Among traffic crashes, driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol is the most dangerous behavior in Seoul, South Korea. In 2016 alone 40 deaths occurred on of 2,857 cases of DUI. Since DUI is one of the major factors in increasing the severity of crashes, the intensive management of DUI required to reduce traffic crash deaths and the crash damages. This study aims to investigate the relationship between DUI and traffic safety in order to establish countermeasures for traffic safety improvement. The analysis was conducted on the habitual drivers who drove under the influence. Information of habitual drivers is matched to crash data and fine data. The descriptive statistics on data used in this study, which consists of driver license acquisition, traffic fine, and crash data provided by the Korean National Police Agency, are described. The drivers under the influence are classified by statistically significant criteria, such as driver’s age, license type, driving experience, and crash reasons. With the results of the analysis, we propose some countermeasures to enhance traffic safety.

Keywords: driving under influence, traffic safety, traffic crash, traffic fine

Procedia PDF Downloads 217
1582 Development of Energy Benchmarks Using Mandatory Energy and Emissions Reporting Data: Ontario Post-Secondary Residences

Authors: C. Xavier Mendieta, J. J McArthur

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Governments are playing an increasingly active role in reducing carbon emissions, and a key strategy has been the introduction of mandatory energy disclosure policies. These policies have resulted in a significant amount of publicly available data, providing researchers with a unique opportunity to develop location-specific energy and carbon emission benchmarks from this data set, which can then be used to develop building archetypes and used to inform urban energy models. This study presents the development of such a benchmark using the public reporting data. The data from Ontario’s Ministry of Energy for Post-Secondary Educational Institutions are being used to develop a series of building archetype dynamic building loads and energy benchmarks to fill a gap in the currently available building database. This paper presents the development of a benchmark for college and university residences within ASHRAE climate zone 6 areas in Ontario using the mandatory disclosure energy and greenhouse gas emissions data. The methodology presented includes data cleaning, statistical analysis, and benchmark development, and lessons learned from this investigation are presented and discussed to inform the development of future energy benchmarks from this larger data set. The key findings from this initial benchmarking study are: (1) the importance of careful data screening and outlier identification to develop a valid dataset; (2) the key features used to develop a model of the data are building age, size, and occupancy schedules and these can be used to estimate energy consumption; and (3) policy changes affecting the primary energy generation significantly affected greenhouse gas emissions, and consideration of these factors was critical to evaluate the validity of the reported data.

Keywords: building archetypes, data analysis, energy benchmarks, GHG emissions

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1581 Investigating Teachers’ Approaches in Teaching English and Students’ Communicative Ability in a Tertiary College

Authors: Adel Ben Mohamed

Abstract:

The widespread use of the English language around the world has pushed many countries to consider such a language as a top priority in their educational system. One of these countries is the Sultanate of Oman. In this frame, the Omani government has allocated huge budgets as well as resources in order to implement the English language in its education system. The importance of English is prevalent in Oman. This is clearly noticeable through remarkable signs. For instance, most of the official documents in Oman are in both Arabic (the mother tongue) or English. In addition to that, there is a mushroom of English language institutes all over the country. In 2020, there are over fourteen English language institutes and centers in Oman (esl base, 2020). Moreover, these days most of the Omani parents are sending their children for tuition to learn the English language. Hence, it is apparent that the Sultanate of Oman is giving a great value to the importance of English in attaining various goals. However, in the world of work, what is more, important today is fluency rather than accuracy. Therefore, many people go for communication English rather than technical English. For example, Oman Daily Observer newspaper published a job advertisement of a sale assistant on 23rd of November 2020, recommended that speaking very well English is a must to be hired for the position (Oman Observer, 2020). In line with this and because of the great importance of the English language in Oman, the ministry of higher education has placed much emphasis on this official foreign language. Therefore, in the Omani educational system, all post -secondary students must sit for one year in one of the higher education institutions as a General Foundation Programmes (GFP) prior to moving to their respective majors in diploma level. Accordingly, the implementation of any teaching approach is determined by different factors: some are directly linked to teachers while others are related to organizational variables.

Keywords: teaching approaches, communicative, ability, investigating

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1580 A Study of 3 Different Reintroduction Regimens in Anti-Tubercular Therapy-Induced Hepatitis in Extra-Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Authors: Alpana Meena

Abstract:

Background: Tuberculosis is one of the major causes of death in south-east nations. Anti-TB–induced hepatotoxicity (AIH) is associated with a mortality of 6%–12%. The risk is increased when the drugs are combined. Reintroduction of anti-tuberculosis drugs in patients with AIH has never been studied systematically. The present study was planned to see the clinical profile of patients of AIH and the response to reintroduction of therapy. Methods: The trial was conducted in the Department of Medicine, Maulana Azad Medical College and associated Lok Nayak Hospital, on 32 patients with extra-pulmonary tuberculosis who developed AIH. Patients were randomly allocated into 3 groups. In group 1- Isoniazid (INH) and Rifampicin (RIF) were given at full dosages (weight calculated) from day 1. In group 2- RIF was given at maximum dosage from day 1 and INH at maximum dosage from day 8. In group 3- INH was given at maximum dosage from day 1 and RIF at maximum dosage from day 8. Pyrazinamide was added when above regimens were tolerated. Results: The mean age of presentation was 29.37±13.497 years. The incidence was found to be highest in patients with tubercular meningitis (41%) followed by abdominal, pericardial, disseminated, spinal, and lymph nodes. The mean latent period for development of AIH was 7.84 days ± 6.149 days and the median normalization days for LFT’s was 8.81 ± 4.22 days (3-21). In the study, 21% patients had recurrence of AIH with majority of patients having tolerated the reintroduction of drugs. Pyrazinamide was introduced after establishing isoniazid and rifampicin safety, thus emphasizing the role of gradual reintroduction of ATT to avoid the combined effects of hepatotoxicity. Conclusion: To conclude, the recurrence rate of hepatotoxicity was not statistically significant between the three groups studied (p > 0.05), and thus all 3 hepatotoxic drugs can be reintroduced safely in patients developing AIH.

Keywords: anti-tubercular therapy induced hepatotoxicity, extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, reintroduction regimens, risk factors

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1579 A Machine Learning-Based Approach to Capture Extreme Rainfall Events

Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro

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Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables

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1578 Investigation of Maritime Accidents with Exploratory Data Analysis in the Strait of Çanakkale (Dardanelles)

Authors: Gizem Kodak

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The Strait of Çanakkale, together with the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, form the Turkish Straits System. In other words, the Strait of Çanakkale is the southern gate of the system that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries of the world. Due to the heavy maritime traffic, it is important to scientifically examine the accident characteristics in the region. In particular, the results indicated by the descriptive statistics are of critical importance in order to strengthen the safety of navigation. At this point, exploratory data analysis offers strategic outputs in terms of defining the problem and knowing the strengths and weaknesses against possible accident risk. The study aims to determine the accident characteristics in the Strait of Çanakkale with temporal and spatial analysis of historical data, using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) as the research method. The study's results will reveal the general characteristics of maritime accidents in the region and form the infrastructure for future studies. Therefore, the text provides a clear description of the research goals and methodology, and the study's contributions are well-defined.

Keywords: maritime accidents, EDA, Strait of Çanakkale, navigational safety

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1577 Water Demand Modelling Using Artificial Neural Network in Ramallah

Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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1576 Integrated Marketing Communication to Influencing International Standard Energy Economy Car Buying Decision of Consumers in Bangkok

Authors: Pisit Potjanajaruwit

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The objective of this research was to study the influence of Integrated Marketing Communication on Buying Decision of Consumers in Bangkok. A total of 397 respondents were collected from customers who drive in Bangkok. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. In terms of occupation, the majority worked for private companies. The effect to the Buying Decision of Consumers in Bangkok to including sale promotion with the low interest and discount for an installment, selling by introducing and gave product information through sales persons, public relation by website, direct marketing by annual motor show and advertisement by television media.

Keywords: Bangkok metropolis, ECO car, integrated marketing communication, international standard

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1575 The Relationship between Marketing Mix Strategy and Valuable of Muay Thai Training and Thai Massage in Foreign Tourists' Perception

Authors: Thammamonr Khunrattanaporn

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The purpose of the research was to examine the relationship between the marketing mix factors and valuable of Muay Thai Training and Thai massage in foreign tourists’ perception. The research used the 8 P’s of marketing framework presented in the theory of compound marketing services strategy. Data was collect using survey for 400 questionnaires using the Quota sampling from foreign tourists travelling in Thailand. The data was analyzed to determine valuation statistics, the frequency, percent average, means and standard deviation and pearson's correlation coefficients. The result shows the foreign tourists’ perception with the marketing mix strategy in term of Muay Thai training and massage regarding curriculum areas: product, pricing, channel distribution, Promotion, Personnel services, Physical evidence and external partnerships the overall, it significant at a high level. The awareness level of service and value for travelers had two aspects of service quality and value for money it significant at the highest level.

Keywords: foreign tourists’ perception, marketing mix strategy, Muay Thai training, the massage

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1574 21st Century Teacher Image to Stakeholders of Teacher Education Institutions in the Philippines

Authors: Marilyn U. Balagtas, Maria Ruth M. Regalado, Carmelina E. Barrera, Ramer V. Oxiño, Rosarito T. Suatengco, Josephine E. Tondo

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This study presents the perceptions of the students and teachers from kindergarten to tertiary level of the image of the 21st century teacher to provide basis in designing teacher development programs in Teacher Education Institutions (TEIs) in the Philippines. The highlights of the report are the personal, psychosocial, and professional images of the 21st century teacher in basic education and the teacher educators based on a survey done to 612 internal stakeholders of nine member institutions of the National Network of Normal Schools (3NS). Data were obtained through the use of a validated researcher-made instrument which allowed generation of both quantitative and qualitative descriptions of the teacher image. Through the use of descriptive statistics, the common images of the teacher were drawn, which were validated and enriched by the information drawn from the qualitative data. The study recommends a repertoire of teacher development programs to create the good image of the 21st century teachers for a better Philippines.

Keywords: teacher image, 21st century teacher, teacher education, development program

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1573 Road Accidents in Urban and Rural Areas in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Authors: Bruno Kinyaga

Abstract:

Motorcycles transport commonly known as (Boda boda) in Tanzania has been growing up in the recent years in both urban and rural areas. Since motorcycles have been authorized to carry passengers in Tanzania they have been associated with many accidents resulting in large number of deaths and injuries in the country. Most of the road traffic injury victims are passengers, motorcyclists and pedestrians. Males are over represented in all cases. Most of the deceased were 18-29 years old. The increase of motorcycles has been accompanied with the increase of motorcycle crashes causing deaths and injuries to passengers as well as riders. According to the data collected, the statistics shows that from January to December 2015, the total number of 4079 motorcycles was involved in accidents in the country, causing 1747 deaths and 4826 injuries. Compares to the report of January to December 2014 whereby the total number of motorcycles involved in accidents were 3710, causing 1423 deaths and 3622 injuries. This is according to the report provided by the Road safety Chief Commander in Tanzania.

Keywords: accidents, road, safety, Tanzania

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1572 Health Perceptions in Elderly Population, before and after COVID-19

Authors: María José López Rey, Mar Chaves Carrillo, Manuela Caballero Guisado

Abstract:

The data presented here are part of a broader investigation on active population aging. The work was carried out in November 2020 in Extremadura, a region of southern Spain. This R + D + I project, called "Active aging scenarios in Extremadura: intervention proposals," was carried out by a team of professors, researchers from the University of Extremadura. The project has been financed by the European Regional Development Funds and the Government of Extremadura. Here, we focus on aspects that have to do with the experience of health, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how this has affected the population related to the main sociodemographic variables. In an exercise of methodological triangulation, thus providing robustness to the analysis, primary data, obtained from the survey designed ad hoc, are combined with other secondary data from various sources and studies carried out in Spain (Sociological Research Centre, and National Institute of Statistics). The survey was carried out on a representative sample of the population over 55 years old, coming from Extremadura. Among the findings, we must highlight the practical invariability of perceptions based on the main sociodemographic variables, as well as some differences indicated by the variables sex and age.

Keywords: aging, health, COVID-19, perceptions

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1571 The Impact of the Russian Democratic Weaknesses on the International Society

Authors: Leone Sherman

Abstract:

While the democratic rights of a citizen may be very clearly outlined in a country’s constitution, it’s not uncommon for political elite to undermine those rights and gain more power and control over a country than it is allowed by this constitution. Moreover, while such a change in some smaller states may not have a substantial impact on the international community, the same change in countries with vast resources and political influence, such as Russia, is always a considerable factor for the world policy. This article aims to research the weaknesses of the Russian democratic system and their effect on the international policy through the three key aspects: The Russian people’s ability to produce the required political will to control their government’s decisions, the current development of the Russian political environment, and the affection of this environment on the world community as a whole during the recent years. The used methodology is a narrative analysis of recent political events, official statistics, international investigations and media statements. As a result, the ever-widening gap between the people and the government becomes evidently seen, as well as the challenges it imposes on the political world arena, both current and those that still lie ahead of us.

Keywords: Russia, political analysis, democratic weaknesses, international society

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1570 Beijing Xicheng District Housing Price Econometric Analysis: “Multi-School Zoning”Policy

Authors: Haoxue Cui, Sirui Zhang, Shanshan Gao, Weiyi Zhang, Lantian Wang, Xuanwen Zheng

Abstract:

The 2020 "multi-school zoning" policy makes students ineligible for direct attendance in their district. To study whether the housing price trend of the school district is affected by the policy, This paper studies housing prices based on the school district division in Xicheng District, Beijing. In this paper, we collected housing prices and the basic situation of communities from "Anjuke", which were divided into two periods of 15 months before and after the 731 policy in the Xicheng District, Beijing. Then we used DID model and time fixed effect to investigate the DIFFERENTIAL statistics, that is, the overall net impact of the policy. The results show that the coefficient is negative at a certain statistical level. It indicates that the housing prices of school districts in the Xicheng district decreased after the "multi-school zoning" policy, which shows that the policy has effectively reduced the housing price of school districts in the Xicheng District and laid a foundation for the "double reduction" policy in 2022.

Keywords: “multi-school zoning”policy, DID, time fixed effect, housing prices

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1569 Obesity and Bone Mineral Density in Patients with Large Joint Osteoarthritis

Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Anna Musiienko, Nataliia Zaverukha, Roksolana Povoroznyuk

Abstract:

Along with the global aging of population, the number of people with somatic diseases is increasing, including such interrelated pathologies as obesity, osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis (OP). The objective of the study is to examine the connection between body mass index (BMI), OA and bone mineral density (BMD) of lumbar spine, femoral neck and trabecular bone score (TBS) in postmenopausal women with OA. We have observed 359 postmenopausal women (50-89 years old) and divided them into four groups by age: 50-59 yrs, 60-69 yrs, 70-79 yrs and over 80 years old. In addition, according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Clinical classification criteria for knee and hip OA, we divided them into 2 groups: group I – 117 females with symptomatic OA (including 89 patients with knee OA, 28 patients with hip OA) and group II –242 women with a normal functional activity of large joints. Analysis of data was performed taking into account their BMI, classified by World Health Organization (WHO). Diagnosis of obesity was established when BMI was above 30 kg/m2. In woman with obesity, a symptomatic OA was detected in 44 postmenopausal women (41.1%), a normal functional activity of large joints - in 63 women (58.9%). However, in women with normal BMI – 73 women, who account for 29.0% of cases, a symptomatic OA was detected. According to a chi-squared (χ2) test, a significantly higher level of BMI was detected in postmenopausal women with OA (χ2 = 5.05, p = 0.02). Women with a symptomatic OA had a significantly higher BMD of lumbar spine compared with women who had a normal functional activity of large joints. No significant differences of BMD of femoral necks or TBS were detected in either the group with OA or with a normal functional activity of large joints.

Keywords: bone mineral density, body mass index, obesity, overweight, postmenopausal women, osteoarthritis

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1568 The Development of the Quality Management Processes for the Building and Environment of the Basic Education Schools

Authors: Suppara Charoenpoom

Abstract:

The objectives of this research was to design and develop a quality management of the school buildings and environment. A quantitative and qualitative mixed research methodology was used. The population sample included 14 directors of primary schools. Two research tools were used. The first research tool included an in-depth interview and questionnaire. The second research tool included the Quality Business Process and Quality Work Procedure, and a Key Performance Indicator of each activity. The statistics included mean and standard deviation. The findings for the development of a quality management process of buildings and environment administration of the basic schools consisted of one quality business process (QBP) and seven quality work processes (QWP). The result from the experts’ evaluation revealed that the process and implementation of quality management of the school buildings and environment has passed the inspection process with consensus. This implies that the process of quality management of the school buildings and environment is suitable for implementation. Moreover, the level of agreement in the feasibility of the implementation of this plan had the mean in the range of 0.64-1.00 which suggests the design of the new plan is acceptable.

Keywords: process, building, environment, management

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1567 Optimization of Floor Heating System in the Incompressible Turbulent Flow Using Constructal Theory

Authors: Karim Farahmandfar, Hamidolah Izadi, Mohammadreza Rezaei, Amin Ardali, Ebrahim Goshtasbi Rad, Khosro Jafarpoor

Abstract:

Statistics illustrates that the higher amount of annual energy consumption is related to surmounting the demand in buildings. Therefore, it is vital to economize the energy consumption and also find the solution with regard to this issue. One of the systems for the sake of heating the building is floor heating. As a matter of fact, floor heating performance is based on convection and radiation. Actually, in addition to creating a favorable heating condition, this method leads to energy saving. It is the goal of this article to outline the constructal theory and introduce the optimization method in branch networks for floor heating. There are several steps in order to gain this purpose. First of all, the pressure drop through the two points of the network is calculated. This pressure drop is as a function of pipes diameter and other parameters. After that, the amount of heat transfer is determined. Consequently, as a result of the combination of these two functions, the final function will be determined. It is necessary to mention that flow is laminar.

Keywords: constructal theory, optimization, floor heating system, turbulent flow

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