Search results for: long COVID
6280 Differentiated Ways of Supporting Social-Emotional Wellbeing and Mental Health of Children and Youth
Authors: Jolanta Jonak
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Emotional wellbeing is crucial for healthy development of children, youth, and adolescence. Lack of healthy emotional development and functioning can lead to many challenges in academic, social, and physical domains. Unfortunately, mental health problems are steadily increasing over the past several years and significantly intensified during and after the Covid 19 pandemic. Some experts warn that globally, we are entering a mental health crisis pandemic. Prior to the Covid 19 pandemic in 2020, a considerable number of youth aged 6-17 experienced a mental health disorder each year, with half of all mental health conditions beginning by age 14. The most common mental health disorders in children are Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), behavior problems, anxiety, and depression. In U.S. schools, youth with these diagnoses tend to be classified under the umbrella of Emotional Disability. Several concerning trends have been emerging about the mental health of U.S. high school students. These trends have been steadily increasing for the past decade, particularly having increasing numbers of high school students who experienced persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, seriously considered attempting suicide, made a suicide plan, and attempted suicide. The number of students who felt persistently sad or hopeless increased across every racial and ethnic group. Parents, educators, and mental health providers are key stakeholders that are responsible for actively and effectively supporting struggling youth. A commonly faced challenge is that mental wellbeing is not supported as effectively as it should be. When effective prevention is paired with enhanced treatment developed on a multidisciplinary approach, mental health and emotional wellbeing in young people can be positively enhanced. Major health organizations including the Center for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health encourage health professionals and other stakeholders to focus on addressing emotional wellbeing and mental health of young people.Keywords: social emotional wellbeing, disability, learning, prevention
Procedia PDF Downloads 376279 Implementation of A Treatment Escalation Plan During The Covid 19 Outbreak in Aneurin Bevan University Health Board
Authors: Peter Collett, Mike Pynn, Haseeb Ur Rahman
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For the last few years across the UK there has been a push towards implementing treatment escalation plans (TEP) for every patient admitted to hospital. This is a paper form which is completed by a junior doctor then countersigned by the consultant responsible for the patient's care. It is designed to address what level of care is appropriate for the patient in question at point of entry to hospital. It helps decide whether the patient would benefit for ward based, high dependency or intensive care. They are completed to ensure the patient's best interests are maintained and aim to facilitate difficult decisions which may be required at a later date. For example, a frail patient with significant co-morbidities, unlikely to survive a pathology requiring an intensive care admission is admitted to hospital the decision can be made early to state the patient would not benefit from an ICU admission. This decision can be reversed depending on the clinical course of the patient's admission. It promotes discussions with the patient regarding their wishes to receive certain levels of healthcare. This poster describes the steps taken in the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board (ABUHB) when implementing the TEP form. The team implementing the TEP form campaigned for it's use to the board of directors. The directors were eager to hear of experiences of other health boards who had implemented the TEP form. The team presented the data produced in a number of health boards and demonstrated the proposed form. Concern was raised regarding the legalities of the form and that it could upset patients and relatives if the form was not explained properly. This delayed the effectuation of the TEP form and further research and discussion would be required. When COVID 19 reached the UK the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence issued guidance stating every patient admitted to hospital should be issued a TEP form. The TEP form was accelerated through the vetting process and was approved with immediate effect. The TEP form in ABUHB has now been in circulation for a month. An audit investigating it's uptake and a survey gathering opinions have been conducted.Keywords: acute medicine, clinical governance, intensive care, patient centered decision making
Procedia PDF Downloads 1766278 Real-Time Web Map Service Based on Solar-Powered Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
Authors: Sunghun Jung
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The existing web map service providers contract with the satellite operators to update their maps by paying an astronomical amount of money, but the cost could be minimized by operating a cheap and small UAV. In contrast to the satellites, we only need to replace aged battery packs from time to time for the usage of UAVs. Utilizing both a regular camera and an infrared camera mounted on a small, solar-powered, long-endurance, and hoverable UAV, daytime ground surface photographs, and nighttime infrared photographs will be continuously and repeatedly uploaded to the web map server and overlapped with the existing ground surface photographs in real-time. The real-time web map service using a small, solar-powered, long-endurance, and hoverable UAV can also be applied to the surveillance missions, in particular, to detect border area intruders. The improved real-time image stitching algorithm is developed for the graphic map data overlapping. Also, a small home server will be developed to manage the huge size of incoming map data. The map photographs taken at tens or hundreds of kilometers by a UAV would improve the map graphic resolution compared to the map photographs taken at thousands of kilometers by satellites since the satellite photographs are limited by weather conditions.Keywords: long-endurance, real-time web map service (RWMS), solar-powered, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)
Procedia PDF Downloads 2746277 Widely Diversified Macroeconomies in the Super-Long Run Casts a Doubt on Path-Independent Equilibrium Growth Model
Authors: Ichiro Takahashi
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One of the major assumptions of mainstream macroeconomics is the path independence of capital stock. This paper challenges this assumption by employing an agent-based approach. The simulation results showed the existence of multiple "quasi-steady state" equilibria of the capital stock, which may cast serious doubt on the validity of the assumption. The finding would give a better understanding of many phenomena that involve hysteresis, including the causes of poverty. The "market-clearing view" has been widely shared among major schools of macroeconomics. They understand that the capital stock, the labor force, and technology, determine the "full-employment" equilibrium growth path and demand/supply shocks can move the economy away from the path only temporarily: the dichotomy between the short-run business cycles and the long-run equilibrium path. The view then implicitly assumes the long-run capital stock to be independent of how the economy has evolved. In contrast, "Old Keynesians" have recognized fluctuations in output as arising largely from fluctuations in real aggregate demand. It will then be an interesting question to ask if an agent-based macroeconomic model, which is known to have path dependence, can generate multiple full-employment equilibrium trajectories of the capital stock in the super-long run. If the answer is yes, the equilibrium level of capital stock, an important supply-side factor, would no longer be independent of the business cycle phenomenon. This paper attempts to answer the above question by using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Takahashi and Okada (2010). The model would serve this purpose well because it has neither population growth nor technology progress. The objective of the paper is twofold: (1) to explore the causes of long-term business cycle, and (2) to examine the super-long behaviors of the capital stock of full-employment economies. (1) The simulated behaviors of the key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, real wages showed widely diversified macro-economies. They were often remarkably stable but exhibited both short-term and long-term fluctuations. The long-term fluctuations occur through the following two adjustments: the quantity and relative cost adjustments of capital stock. The first one is obvious and assumed by many business cycle theorists. The reduced aggregate demand lowers prices, which raises real wages, thereby decreasing the relative cost of capital stock with respect to labor. (2) The long-term business cycles/fluctuations were synthesized with the hysteresis of real wages, interest rates, and investments. In particular, a sequence of the simulation runs with a super-long simulation period generated a wide range of perfectly stable paths, many of which achieved full employment: all the macroeconomic trajectories, including capital stock, output, and employment, were perfectly horizontal over 100,000 periods. Moreover, the full-employment level of capital stock was influenced by the history of unemployment, which was itself path-dependent. Thus, an experience of severe unemployment in the past kept the real wage low, which discouraged a relatively costly investment in capital stock. Meanwhile, a history of good performance sometimes brought about a low capital stock due to a high-interest rate that was consistent with a strong investment.Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, hysteresis, stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 2106276 IRIS An Interactive Video Game for Children with Long-Term Illness in Hospitals
Authors: Ganetsou Evanthia, Koutsikos Emmanouil, Austin Anna Maria
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Information technology has long served the needs of individuals for learning and entertainment, but much less for children in sickness. The aim of the proposed online video game is to provide immersive learning opportunities as well as essential social and emotional scenarios for hospital-bound children with long-term illness. Online self-paced courses on chosen school subjects, including specialised software and multisensory assessments, aim at enhancing children’s academic achievement and sense of inclusion, while doctor minigames familiarise and educate young patients on their medical conditions. Online ethical dilemmas will offer children opportunities to contemplate on the importance of medical procedures and following assigned medication, often challenging for young patients; they will therefore reflect on their condition, reevaluate their perceptions about hospitalisation, and assume greater personal responsibility for their progress. Children’s emotional and psychosocial needs are addressed by engaging in social conventions, such as interactive, daily, collaborative mini games with other hospitalised peers, like virtual competitive sports games, weekly group psychodrama sessions, and online birthday parties or sleepovers. Social bonding is also fostered by having a virtual pet to interact with and take care of, as well as a virtual nurse to discuss and reflect on the mood of the day, engage in constructive dialogue and perspective taking, and offer reminders. Access to the platform will be available throughout the day depending on the patient’s health status. The program is designed to minimise escapism and feelings of exclusion, and can flexibly be adapted to offer post-treatment and a support online system at home.Keywords: long-term illness, children, hospital, interactive games, cognitive, socioemotional development
Procedia PDF Downloads 756275 Expand Rabies Post-Exposure Prophylaxis to Where It Is Needed the Most
Authors: Henry Wilde, Thiravat Hemachudha
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Human rabies deaths are underreported worldwide at 55,000 annual cases; more than of dengue and Japanese encephalitis. Almost half are children. A recent study from the Philippines of nearly 2,000 rabies deaths revealed that none of had received incomplete or no post exposure prophylaxis. Coming from a canine rabies endemic country, this is not unique. There are two major barriers to reducing human rabies deaths: 1) the large number of unvaccinated dogs and 2) post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) that is not available, incomplete, not affordable, or not within reach for bite victims travel means. Only the first barrier, inadequate vaccination of dogs, is now being seriously addressed. It is also often not done effectively or sustainably. Rabies PEP has evolved as a complex, prolonged process, usually delegated to centers in larger cities. It is virtually unavailable in villages or small communities where most dog bites occur, victims are poor and usually unable to travel a long distance multiple times to receive PEP. Reseacrh that led to better understanding of the pathophysiology of rabies and immune responses to potent vaccines and immunoglobulin have allowed shortening and making PEP more evidence based. This knowledge needs to be adopted and applied so that PEP can be rendered safely and affordably where needed the most: by village health care workers who have long performed more complex services after appropriate training. Recent research makes this an important and long neglected goal that is now within our means to implement.Keywords: rabies, post-exposure prophylaxis, availability, immunoglobulin
Procedia PDF Downloads 2646274 An Integral Sustainable Design Evaluation of the 15-Minute City and the Processes of Transferability to Cities of the Global South
Authors: Chitsanzo Isaac
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Across the world, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has challenged urban systems and policy frameworks, highlighting societal vulnerabilities and systemic inequities among many communities. Measures of confinement and social distancing to contain the Covid-19 virus have fragmented the physical and social fabric of cities. This has caused urban dwellers to reassess how they engage with their urban surroundings and maintain social ties. Urbanists have presented strategies that would allow communities to survive and even thrive, in extraordinary times of crisis like the pandemic. Tactical Urbanism, particularly the 15-Minute City, has gained popularity. It is considered a resilient approach in the global north, however, it’s transferability to the global south has been called into question. To this end, this paper poses the question: to what extent is the 15-Minute City framework integral sustainable design, and are there processes that make it adoptable by cities in the global south? This paper explores four issues using secondary quantitative data analysis and convergence analysis in the Paris and Blantyre urban regions. First, it questions how the 15-Minute City has been defined and measured, and how it impacts urban dwellers. Second, it examines the extent to which the 15-minute city performs under the lens of frameworks such as Wilber’s integral theory and Fleming’s integral sustainable design theory. Thirdly this work examines the processes that can be transferred to developing cities which foster community resilience through the perspectives of experience, behaviors, cultures, and systems. Finally, it reviews the principal ways in which a multi-perspective reality can be the basis for resilient community design and sustainable urban development. This work will shed a light on the importance of a multi-perspective reality as a means of achieving sustainable urban design goals in developing urban areas.Keywords: 15-minute city, developing cities, global south, community resilience, integral sustainable design, systems thinking, complexity, tactical urbanism
Procedia PDF Downloads 1506273 Power Grid Line Ampacity Forecasting Based on a Long-Short-Term Memory Neural Network
Authors: Xiang-Yao Zheng, Jen-Cheng Wang, Joe-Air Jiang
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Improving the line ampacity while using existing power grids is an important issue that electricity dispatchers are now facing. Using the information provided by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines, an overhead power grid can operate safely. However, dispatchers usually lack real-time DTR information. Thus, this study proposes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based method, which is one of the neural network models. The LSTM-based method predicts the DTR of lines using the weather data provided by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. The possible thermal bottlenecks at different locations along the line and the margin of line ampacity can be real-time determined by the proposed LSTM-based prediction method. A case study that targets the 345 kV power grid of TaiPower in Taiwan is utilized to examine the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is useful to provide the information for the smart grid application in the future.Keywords: electricity dispatch, line ampacity prediction, dynamic thermal rating, long-short-term memory neural network, smart grid
Procedia PDF Downloads 2836272 Linear Stability Analysis of a Regularized Two-Fluid Model for Unstable Gas-Liquid Flows in Long Hilly Terrain Pipelines
Authors: David Alejandro Lazo-Vasquez, Jorge Luis Balino
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In the petroleum industry, multiphase flow occurs when oil, gas, and water are transported in the same pipe through large pipeline systems. The flow can take different patterns depending on parameters like fluid velocities, pipe diameter, pipe inclination, and fluid properties. Mainly, intermittent flow is produced by the natural propagation of short and long waves, according to the Kelvin-Helmholtz Stability Theory. To model stratified flow and the onset of intermittent flow, it is crucial to have knowledge of short and long waves behavior. The two-fluid model, frequently employed for characterizing multiphase systems, becomes ill-posed for high liquid and gas velocities and large inclination angles, for short waves can develop infinite growth rates. We are interested in focusing attention on long-wave instability, which leads to the production of roll waves that may grow and result in the transition from stratified flow to intermittent flow. In this study, global and local linear stability analyses for dynamic and kinematic stability criteria predict the regions of stability of the flow for different pipe inclinations and fluid velocities in regularized and non-regularized systems, concurrently. It was possible to distinguish when: wave growth rates are absolutely bounded (stable stratified smooth flow), waves have finite growth rates (unstable stratified wavy flow), and when the equation system becomes elliptic and hyperbolization is needed. In order to bound short wave growth rates and regularize the equation system, we incorporated some lower and higher-order terms like interfacial drag and surface tension, respectively.Keywords: linear stability analysis, multiphase flow, onset of slugging, two-fluid model regularization
Procedia PDF Downloads 1356271 High Photosensitivity and Broad Spectral Response of Multi-Layered Germanium Sulfide Transistors
Authors: Rajesh Kumar Ulaganathan, Yi-Ying Lu, Chia-Jung Kuo, Srinivasa Reddy Tamalampudi, Raman Sankar, Fang Cheng Chou, Yit-Tsong Chen
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In this paper, we report the optoelectronic properties of multi-layered GeS nanosheets (~28 nm thick)-based field-effect transistors (called GeS-FETs). The multi-layered GeS-FETs exhibit remarkably high photoresponsivity of Rλ ~ 206 AW-1 under illumination of 1.5 µW/cm2 at = 633 nm, Vg = 0 V, and Vds = 10 V. The obtained Rλ ~ 206 AW-1 is excellent as compared with a GeS nanoribbon-based and the other family members of group IV-VI-based photodetectors in the two-dimensional (2D) realm, such as GeSe and SnS2. The gate-dependent photoresponsivity of GeS-FETs was further measured to be able to reach Rλ ~ 655 AW-1 operated at Vg = -80 V. Moreover, the multi-layered GeS photodetector holds high external quantum efficiency (EQE ~ 4.0 × 104 %) and specific detectivity (D* ~ 2.35 × 1013 Jones). The measured D* is comparable to those of the advanced commercial Si- and InGaAs-based photodiodes. The GeS photodetector also shows an excellent long-term photoswitching stability with a response time of ~7 ms over a long period of operation (>1 h). These extraordinary properties of high photocurrent generation, broad spectral range, fast response, and long-term stability make the GeS-FET photodetector a highly qualified candidate for future optoelectronic applications.Keywords: germanium sulfide, photodetector, photoresponsivity, external quantum efficiency, specific detectivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 5416270 Employee Commitment as a Means of Revitalising the Hospitality Industry post-Covid: Considering the Impact of Psychological Contract and Psychological Capital
Authors: Desere Kokt
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Hospitality establishments worldwide are bearing the brunt of the effects of Covid-19. As the hospitality industry is looking to recover, emphasis is placed on rejuvenating the industry. This is especially pertinent for economic development in areas of high unemployment, such as the Free State province of South Africa. The province is not a main tourist area and thus depends on the influx of tourists. The province has great scenic beauty with many accommodation establishments that provide job opportunities to the local population. The two main economic hubs of the Free State province namely Bloemfontein and Clarens, were the focus of the investigation. The emphasis was on graded accommodation establishments as they must adhere to the quality principles of the Tourism Grading Council of South Africa (TGCSA) to obtain star grading. The hospitality industry is known for being labour intensive, and employees need to be available to cater for the needs of paying customers. This is referred to as ‘emotional labour’ and implies that employees need to manage their feelings and emotions as part of performing their jobs. The focus of this study was thus on psychological factors related to working in the hospitality industry – specifically psychological contract and psychological capital and its impact on the commitment of employees in graded accommodation establishments. Employee commitment can be explained as a psychological state that binds the individual to the organisation and involves a set of psychological relationships that include affective (emotions), normative (perceived obligation) and continuance (staying with the organisation) dimensions. Psychological contract refers to the reciprocal beliefs and expectations between the employer and the employee and consists of transactional and rational contracts. Transactional contracts are associated with the economic exchange, and contractional issues related to the employment contract and rational contracts relate to the social exchange between the employee and the organisation. Psychological capital refers to an individual’s positive psychology state of development that is characterised by self-efficiency (having confidence in doing one’s job), optimism (being positive and persevering towards achieving one’s goals), hope (expectations for goals to succeed) and resilience (bouncing back to attain success when beset by problems and adversity). The study employed a quantitative research approach, and a structured questionnaire was used to gather data from respondents. The study was conducted during the Covid-19 pandemic, which hampered the data gathering efforts of the researchers. Many accommodation establishments were either closed or temporarily closed, which meant that data gathering was an intensive and laborious process. The main researcher travelled to the various establishments to collect the data. Nine hospitality establishments participated in the study, and around 150 employees were targeted for data collection. Ninety-two (92) questionnaires were completed, which represents a response rate of 61%. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was applied to examine the relationship between the variables.Keywords: employee commitment, hospitality industry, psychological contract, psychological capital
Procedia PDF Downloads 1056269 Acute Myocardial Infarction Associated with Ingestion of Herbal Mixtures Containing Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors: A Case Study
Authors: M. Hakami, A. Jammaly, I. Attafi, M. Oraiby, M. Jeraiby
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We reviewed an unusual case of a 65-year-old male taking an herbal mixture containing compounds with anticholinesterase activity for a long period of time, presented with acute my myocardial infarction and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome followed by death. Clinically, there are findings correlated with anticholinesterase activity, such as bilateral miosis, diaphoresis, vomiting and fasciculation without a history of any toxic ingestion or exposure. Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry screening studies identified the presence of thymol, anethole in the herbal extract and butylated hydroxytoluene in the blood sample. Hence, with this case report, we intend to highlight the necessity of evaluating the long-term use of the herbal mixture.Keywords: cholinesterase inhibitors, thymole, anethole, butylatedhydroxytoluene, cardiac toxicity, myocardial infarction
Procedia PDF Downloads 2796268 Study on the Relationship between the Emission Property of Barium-Tungsten Cathode and Micro-Area Activity
Authors: Zhen Qin, Yufei Peng, Jianbei Li, Jidong Long
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In order to study the activity of the coated aluminate barium-tungsten cathodes during activation, aging, poisoning and long-term use. Through a set of hot-cathode micro-area emission uniformity study device, we tested the micro-area emission performance of the cathode under different conditions. The change of activity of cathode micro-area was obtained. The influence of micro-area activity on the performance of the cathode was explained by the ageing model of barium-tungsten cathode. This helps to improve the design and process of the cathode and can point the way in finding the factors that affect life in the cathode operation.Keywords: barium-tungsten cathode, ageing model, micro-area emission, emission uniformity
Procedia PDF Downloads 4096267 Long-Term Foam Roll Intervention Study of the Effects on Muscle Performance and Flexibility
Authors: T. Poppendieker
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A new innovative tool for self-myofascial release is widely and increasingly used among athletes of various sports. The application of the foam roll is suggested to improve muscle performance and flexibility. Attempts to examine acute and somewhat long term effects of either have been conducted over the past ten years. However, the results of muscle performance have been inconsistent. It is suggested that regular use over a long period of time results in a different, muscle performance improving outcome. This study examines long-term effects of regular foam rolling combined with a short plyometric routine vs. solely the same plyometric routine on muscle performance and flexibility over a period of six weeks. Results of counter movement jump (CMJ), squat jump (SJ), and isometric maximal force (IMF) of a 90° horizontal squat in a leg-press will serve as parameters for muscle performance. Data on the range of motion (ROM) of the sit and reach test will be used as a parameter for the flexibility assessment. Muscle activation will be measured throughout all tests. Twenty male and twenty female members of a Frankfurt area fitness center chain (7.11) with an average age of 25 years will be recruited. Women and men will be randomly assigned to a foam roll (FR) and a control group. All participants will practice their assigned routine three times a week over the period of six weeks. Tests on CMJ, SJ, IMF, and ROM will be taken before and after the intervention period. The statistic software program SPSS 22 will be used to analyze the data of CMJ, SJ, IMF, and ROM under consideration of muscle activation by a 2 x 2 x 2 (time of measurement x gender x group) analysis of variance with repeated measures and dependent t-test analysis of pre- and post-test. The alpha level for statistic significance will be set at p ≤ 0.05. It is hypothesized that a significant difference in outcome based on gender differences in all four tests will be observed. It is further hypothesized that both groups may show significant improvements in their performance in the CMJ and SJ after the six-week period. However, the FR group is hypothesized to achieve a higher improvement in the two jump tests. Moreover, the FR group may increase IMF as well as flexibility, whereas the control group may not show likewise progress. The results of this study are crucial for the understanding of long-term effects of regular foam roll application. The collected information on the matter may help to motivate the incorporation of foam rolling into training routines, in order to improve athletic performances.Keywords: counter movement jump, foam rolling, isometric maximal force, long term effects, self-myofascial release, squat jump
Procedia PDF Downloads 2866266 Implicit U-Net Enhanced Fourier Neural Operator for Long-Term Dynamics Prediction in Turbulence
Authors: Zhijie Li, Wenhui Peng, Zelong Yuan, Jianchun Wang
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Turbulence is a complex phenomenon that plays a crucial role in various fields, such as engineering, atmospheric science, and fluid dynamics. Predicting and understanding its behavior over long time scales have been challenging tasks. Traditional methods, such as large-eddy simulation (LES), have provided valuable insights but are computationally expensive. In the past few years, machine learning methods have experienced rapid development, leading to significant improvements in computational speed. However, ensuring stable and accurate long-term predictions remains a challenging task for these methods. In this study, we introduce the implicit U-net enhanced Fourier neural operator (IU-FNO) as a solution for stable and efficient long-term predictions of the nonlinear dynamics in three-dimensional (3D) turbulence. The IU-FNO model combines implicit re-current Fourier layers to deepen the network and incorporates the U-Net architecture to accurately capture small-scale flow structures. We evaluate the performance of the IU-FNO model through extensive large-eddy simulations of three types of 3D turbulence: forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT), temporally evolving turbulent mixing layer, and decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The results demonstrate that the IU-FNO model outperforms other FNO-based models, including vanilla FNO, implicit FNO (IFNO), and U-net enhanced FNO (U-FNO), as well as the dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), in predicting various turbulence statistics. Specifically, the IU-FNO model exhibits improved accuracy in predicting the velocity spectrum, probability density functions (PDFs) of vorticity and velocity increments, and instantaneous spatial structures of the flow field. Furthermore, the IU-FNO model addresses the stability issues encountered in long-term predictions, which were limitations of previous FNO models. In addition to its superior performance, the IU-FNO model offers faster computational speed compared to traditional large-eddy simulations using the DSM model. It also demonstrates generalization capabilities to higher Taylor-Reynolds numbers and unseen flow regimes, such as decaying turbulence. Overall, the IU-FNO model presents a promising approach for long-term dynamics prediction in 3D turbulence, providing improved accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.Keywords: data-driven, Fourier neural operator, large eddy simulation, fluid dynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 746265 Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Investigating the Efficacy of Walking-based Aerobic Exercise Interventions to Treat Postpartum Depression
Authors: V. Pentland, S. Spilsbury, A. Biswas, M. F. Mottola, S. Paplinskie, M. S. Mitchell
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Postpartum depression (PPD) is a form of major depressive disorder that afflicts 10–22% of mothers worldwide. Rising demands for traditional PPD treatment options (e.g., psychiatry), especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, are increasingly difficult to meet. More accessible treatment options (e.g., walking) are needed. The objective of this review is to determine the impact of walking on PPD severity. A structured search of seven electronic databases for randomised controlled trials published between 2000 and July 29, 2021, was completed. Studies were included if walking was the sole or primary aerobic exercise modality. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted for studies reporting PPD symptoms measured using a clinically validated tool. A simple count of positive/null effect studies was undertaken as part of a narrative summary. Five studies involving 242 participants were included (mean age=~28.9 years; 100% with mild-to-moderate depression). Interventions were 12 (n=4) and 24 (n=1) weeks long. Each assessed PPD severity using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and was included in the meta-analysis. The pooled effect estimate suggests that relative to controls, walking yielded clinically significant decreases in mean EPDS scores from baseline to intervention end (pooled MD=-4.01; 95% CI:-7.18 to -0.84, I2=86%). The narrative summary provides preliminary evidence that walking-only, supervised, and group-based interventions, including 90-120+ minutes/week of moderate-intensity walking, may produce greater EPDS reductions. While limited by a relatively small number of included studies, pooled effect estimates suggest walking may help mothers manage PPD. This is the first time walking as a treatment for PPD, an exercise modality that uniquely addresses many barriers faced by mothers has been summarized in a systematic way. Trial registration: PROSPERO (CRD42020197521) on August 16th, 2020Keywords: postpartum, exercise, depression, walking
Procedia PDF Downloads 2046264 Assessment of Quality of Life in Hypertensive Patients Using the WHOQOL-BREF Instrument in Post-pandemic Era: An Analytical Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: Nasrin Akter, Bilkis Banu, Farhana Faruque, Fatema Afrin, Sujana Haque Chowdhury, Sarder Mahmud Hossain
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Objectives: To combat the growing prevalence of hypertension in Bangladesh, it is pivotal to have an in-depth understanding of quality of life (QOL) among hypertensive people. The aim of this study was to measure QOL of hypertensive people and its determinants in a selected tertiary hospital in Dhaka city. Design & Methods: This analytical cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 300 hypertensive patients from two cardiac departments of Square Hospitals Limited. Data were collected through the face-to-face interview method. WHOQOL-BREF questionnaire was used to assess the QOL. Mean scores of quality of life were analyzed through descriptive statistics. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient and Pearson’s correlation coefficient were applied to estimate the internal consistency, and the level of agreement among different domains of WHOQOL-BREF, respectively. Chi-square test followed by binary regression analyses were used to measure the association between QOL domains and independent variables. Results: Both overall QOL and domains had a good internal consistency, (r = 0.13–0.77, p< 0.01). The QOL among hypertensive patients was found to be poor in the psychological (71%) and social (74.7%) domains and good in the environmental (63%) and physical (65%) domains. Backward binary regressions revealed that being older (p=0.01), diabetic (p=0.02), having history of COVID-19 (p=0.01), and poor monthly income (USD ≤853.14) (p=0.01) were significantly associated with poor QOL in all domain. Moreover, older age (p=0.01) and poor lifestyle (p=0.02) were significantly associated with poor overall quality of life and poor general health perception. Conclusion: The results revealed low QOL in the psychological and social domain including significant factors associated with the poor QOL in all domains. To enhance the quality of life for hypertensive patients—especially those who are older, diabetic, have lower incomes, experienced COVID-19, and maintain poor lifestyles—effective interventions and health system strengthening are crucial.Keywords: quality of life, hypertension, WHOQOL-BREF, analytical cross-sectional study
Procedia PDF Downloads 156263 Difficulties and Mistakes in Diagnosis During Brucellosis in Children
Authors: Taghi-Zada T. G., Hajiyeva U. K.
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Recent years, due to the development of tourism, migration and globalization, brucellosis has spread to non-endemic regions of the country in Azerbaijan and this disease has become one of the main priority areas of medicine. In our daily practice, we face patients with specific symptoms of brucellosis and also infected with this disease but misdiagnosed. It should also be noted that the symptoms and signs of brucellosis are very diverse, and since none of these signs are specific enough to confirm the diagnosis, it creates difficulties in its timely detection and diagnosis. The main purpose of the work. Therefore, the main goal of the work is to investigate the cases of delay in making the correct diagnosis in children with brucellosis and the mistakes in this matter. Material and method. 50 children with brucellosis between the ages of 6 months and 17 years were examined. The medical history and anamnesis of these children were collected, clinical-instrumental examination, and serological tests for brucellosis were performed. Patients were divided into 2 groups, taking into account the specificity of symptoms and the timely diagnosis Results. Group I included 15 (40%) children aged 3-17 years. The main specific symptoms of brucellosis in these patients; persistent or long-term fever, night sweats, arthralgia were observed. In addition to specific symptoms, anamnesis and a specific serological test confirmed the diagnosis of brucellosis. 30 (60%) patients included in group II were misdiagnosed. 3 patients (up to 1 year) were diagnosed with sepsis, 6 with acute rheumatic fever, 10 with systemic diseases, 2 with tuberculosis, 5 with Covid 19, and 4 with unspecified fever. However, we included serological tests. detailed examination revealed the presence of brucellosis in them. As can be seen, compared to group I (40%) children included in group II (60%) In modern times, brucellosis manifests itself with its own characteristics, that is, imitating a number of other diseases, which has led to wrong diagnosis. Conclusion. Thus, the lack of specificity of clinical symptoms during brucellosis in children makes diagnosis difficult, causes mistakes and non-recognition of the disease. With this in mind, physicians in predominantly endemic and even sub-endemic areas should remain vigilant about this disease and consider brucellosis in the differential diagnosis of almost every unexplained medical problem until proven otherwise.Keywords: brucellosis, pediatrics, diagnostics, serological tests
Procedia PDF Downloads 126262 COVID-19 Infection in Children Admitted to Academic Hospitals in Central South Africa
Authors: Olive P. Khaliq, Stephen C. Brown, Boitumelo Pitso, Nomakhuwa E. Tabane
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Context: The research focuses on the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalized children during the Omicron variant wave in South Africa, specifically in the Free State Province. Research Aim: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of COVID-19 infection in asymptomatic, unvaccinated children during the Omicron variant wave in the Free State Province of South Africa. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on children aged 0-12 admitted to hospitals using nucleocapsid antibody rapid testing for SARS-CoV-2 presence. Data on parent/caregiver vaccination and patient conditions were collected. Results: 46.8% of hospitalized children tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with the highest rates in neonates. Most infected children had unrelated conditions and were asymptomatic. The Omicron variant was characterized as highly infectious but less virulent, leading to mild disease. Theoretical Importance: The study highlights the significant SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in hospitalized children during the Omicron variant surge, emphasizing the variant's unique characteristics in causing mild or asymptomatic infections. Data Collection: Data were collected through nucleocapsid antibody rapid testing for SARS-CoV-2 and the compilation of parent/caregiver vaccination status and patient conditions. Analysis Procedures: The data were analyzed to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalized children, focusing on demographics, infection rates, and associated conditions. Questions Addressed: The study addressed the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalized children, the impact of the Omicron variant, the asymptomatic nature of infections, and the potential role of vaccination status in transmission. Conclusion: The research revealed a high rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections among hospitalized children, mostly asymptomatic and with unrelated conditions, indicating the unique infectiousness and clinical presentation of the Omicron variant in this demographic.Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, Omicron variant, antibodies, children, admission diagnosis
Procedia PDF Downloads 286261 Rapid Start-Up and Efficient Long-Term Nitritation of Low Strength Ammonium Wastewater with a Sequencing Batch Reactor Containing Immobilized Cells
Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae
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Major concerns regarding nitritation of low-strength ammonium wastewaters include low ammonium loading rates (usually below 0.2 kg/m3-d) and uncertainty about long-term stability of the process. The purpose of this study was to test a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) filled with cell-immobilized polyethylene glycol (PEG) pellets to see if it could achieve efficient and stable nitritation under various environmental conditions. SBR was fed with synthetic ammonium wastewater of 30±2 mg-N/L and pH: 8±0.05, maintaining the dissolved oxygen concentration of 1.7±0.2 mg/L and the temperature at 30±1oC. The reaction was easily converted to partial nitrification mode within a month by feeding relatively high ammonium substrate (~100 mg-N/L) in the beginning. We observed stable nitritation over 300 days with high ammonium loading rates (as high as ~1.1 kg-N/m3-d), nitrite accumulation rates (mostly over 97%) and ammonium removal rate (mostly over 95%). DO was a major limiting substrate when the DO concentration was below ~4 mg/L and the NH4+-N concentration was above 5 mg/L, giving almost linear increase in the ammonium oxidation rate with the bulk DO increase. Low temperatures mainly affected the reaction rate, which could be compensated for by increasing the pellet volume (i.e. biomass). Our results demonstrated that an SBR filled with small cell-immobilized PEG pellets could achieve very efficient and stable nitritation of a low-strength ammonium wastewater.Keywords: ammonium loading rate (ALR), cell-immobilization, long-term nitritation, sequencing batch reactor (SBR), sewage treatment
Procedia PDF Downloads 2736260 Possible Endocrinal and Liver Enzymes Toxicities Associated with Long Term Exposure to Benzene in Saudi Arabia
Authors: Faizah Asiri, Mohammed Fathy, Saeed Alghamdi, Nahlah Ayoub, Faisal Asiri
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Background: - The strategies for this study were based on the toxic effect of long-term inhalation of Benzene on hormones and liver enzymes and various parameters related to it. The following databases were searched: benzene, hepatotoxic, benzene metabolism, hormones, testosterone, hemotoxic, and prolonged exposure. A systematic strategy is designed to search the literature that links benzene with the multiplicity and different types of intoxication or the medical abbreviations of diseases relevant to benzene exposure. Evidence suggests that getting rid of inhaled gasoline is by exhalation. Absorbed benzene is metabolized by giving phenolic acid as well as meconic acid, followed by urinary excretion of conjugate sulfates and glucuronides. Materials and Methods :- This work was conducted in the Al-Khadra laboratory in Taif 2020/2021 and aimed to measure some of the possible endocrinal and liver toxicities associated with benzene's long-term exposure in Saudi Arabia at the station workers who are considered the most exposed category to gasoline. One hundred ten station workers were included in this study. They were divided into four patient groups according to the chronic exposure rate to benzene, one control group, and three other groups of exposures. As follows: patient Group 1 (controlled group), patient Group 2 (exposed less than 1y), patient Group 3 (exposed 1-5 y), patient Group 4 (more than 5). Each group is compared with blood sample parameters (ALT, FSH and Testosterone, TSH). Blood samples were drawn from the participants, and statistical tests were performed. Significant change (p≤0.05) was examined compared to the control group. Workers' exposure to benzene led to a significant change in hematological, hormonal, and hepatic factors compared to the control group. Results:- The results obtained a relationship between long-term exposure to benzene and a decrease in the level of testosterone and FSH hormones, including that it poses a toxic risk in the long term (p≤0.05) when compared to the control. We obtained results confirming that there is no significant coloration between years of exposure and TSH level (p≤0.05) when compared to the control. Conclusion:- We conclude that some hormones and liver enzymes are affected by chronic doses of benzene through inhalation after our study was on the group most exposed to benzene, which is gas station workers.Keywords: toxicities, benzene, hormones, station workers
Procedia PDF Downloads 876259 A Panel Cointegration Analysis for Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Market
Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai
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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run. Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause stronger impacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries. The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.Keywords: house prices, macroeconomic variables, panel cointegration, dynamic OLS
Procedia PDF Downloads 3916258 The Positive Effects of Social Distancing on Individual Work Outcomes in the Context of COVID-19
Authors: Fan Wei, Tang Yipeng
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The outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 has been raging around the world, which has severely affected people's work and life. In today's post-pandemic era, although the pandemic has been effectively controlled, people still need to maintain social distancing at all times to prevent the further spread of the virus. Based on this, social distancing in the context of the pandemic has aroused widespread attention from scholars. At present, most studies exploring the influencing factors of social distancing are studying the negative impact of social distancing on the physical and mental state of special groups from the inter-individual level, and their more focus on the forced complete social distancing during the severe period of the pandemic. Few studies have focused on the impact of social distancing on working groups in the post-pandemic era from the within-individual level. In order to explore this problem, this paper constructs a cross-level moderating model based on resource conservation theory from the perspective of psychological resources. A total of 81 subjects were recruited to fill in the three-stage questionnaires each day for 10 working days, and 661valid questionnaires were finally obtained. Through the empirical tests, the following conclusions were finally obtained: (1) At the within-individual level, daily social distancing is positively correlated with the second day’s recovery, and the individual’s low sociability regulates the relationship between social distancing and recovery. The indirect effect of daily social distancing through recovery has positive relationship employees’ work engagement and work-goal progress only when the individual has low sociability. For individuals with high sociability, none of these paths are significant. (2) At the within-individual level, there is a significant relationship between individual's recovery and work engagement and work-goal progress, indicating that the recovery of resources can produce positive work outcomes. According to the results, this study believes that in the post-pandemic era, social distancing can not only effectively prevent and control the pandemic but also have positive impacts. Employees can use the time and energy originally saved for social activities through social distancing to invest in things that can provide resources and help them recover.Keywords: social distancing, recovery, work engagement, work goal progress, sociability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1336257 The Impact of Natural Resources on Financial Development: The Global Perspective
Authors: Remy Jonkam Oben
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Using a time series approach, this study investigates how natural resources impact financial development from a global perspective over the 1980-2019 period. Some important determinants of financial development (economic growth, trade openness, population growth, and investment) have been added to the model as control variables. Unit root tests have revealed that all the variables are integrated into order one. Johansen's cointegration test has shown that the variables are in a long-run equilibrium relationship. The vector error correction model (VECM) has estimated the coefficient of the error correction term (ECT), which suggests that the short-run values of natural resources, economic growth, trade openness, population growth, and investment contribute to financial development converging to its long-run equilibrium level by a 23.63% annual speed of adjustment. The estimated coefficients suggest that global natural resource rent has a statistically-significant negative impact on global financial development in the long-run (thereby validating the financial resource curse) but not in the short-run. Causality test results imply that neither global natural resource rent nor global financial development Granger-causes each other.Keywords: financial development, natural resources, resource curse hypothesis, time series analysis, Granger causality, global perspective
Procedia PDF Downloads 1706256 Normalizing Logarithms of Realized Volatility in an ARFIMA Model
Authors: G. L. C. Yap
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Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.Keywords: Gaussian process, long-memory, normalization, value-at-risk, volatility, Whittle estimator
Procedia PDF Downloads 3546255 Supporting International Student’s Acculturation Through Chatbot Technology: A Proposed Study
Authors: Sylvie Studente
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Despite the increase in international students migrating to the UK, the transition from home environment to a host institution abroad can be overwhelming for many students due to acculturative stressors. These stressors are reported to peak within the first six months of transitioning into study abroad which has determinantal impacts for Higher Education Institutions. These impacts include; increased drop-out rates and overall decreases in academic performance. Research suggests that belongingness can negate acculturative stressors through providing opportunities for students to form necessary social connections. In response to this universities have focussed on utilising technology to create learning communities with the most commonly deployed being social media, blogs, and discussion forums. Despite these attempts, the application of technology in supporting international students is still ambiguous. With the reported growing popularity of mobile devices among students and accelerations in learning technology owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the potential is recognised to address this challenge via the use of chatbot technology. Whilst traditionally, chatbots were deployed as conversational agents in business domains, they have since been applied to the field of education. Within this emerging area of research, a gap exists in addressing the educational value of chatbots over and above the traditional service orientation categorisation. The proposed study seeks to extend upon current understandings by investigating the challenges faced by international students in studying abroad and exploring the potential of chatbots as a solution to assist students’ acculturation. There has been growing interest in the application of chatbot technology to education accelerated by the shift to online learning during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although interest in educational chatbots has surged, there is a lack of consistency in the research area in terms of guidance on the design to support international students in HE. This gap is widened when considering the additional challenge of supporting multicultural international students with diverse. Diversification in education is rising due to increases in migration trends for international study. As global opportunities for education increase, so does the need for multiculturally inclusive learning support.Keywords: chatbots, education, international students, acculturation
Procedia PDF Downloads 446254 Lessons Learned from Implementation of Remote Pregnant and Newborn Care Service for Vulnerable Women and Children During COVID-19 and Political Crisis in Myanmar
Authors: Wint Wint Thu, Htet Ko Ko Win, Myat Mon San, Zaw Lin Tun, Nandar Than Aye, Khin Nyein Myat, Hayman Nyo Oo, Nay Aung Lin, Kusum Thapa, Kyaw Htet Aung
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Background: In Myanmar, the intense political instability happened to start in Feb-2021, while the COVID-19 pandemic waves are also threatening the public health system, which subsequently led to severe health sector crisis, including difficulties in accessing maternal and newborn health care for vulnerable women and children. The Remote Pregnant and Newborn Care (RPNC) uses a telehealth approach United States Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded Essential Health Project. Implementation: The Remote Pregnant and Newborn Care (RPNC) service has adapted to the MNCH needs of vulnerable pregnant women and was implemented to mitigate the risk of limited access to essential quality MNH care in Yangon, Myanmar, under women, and the project trained 13 service providers on a telehealth care package for pregnancy and newborn developed Jhpiego to ensure understanding of evidence-based MNCH care practices. The phone numbers of the pregnant women were gathered through the preexisting and functioning community volunteers, who reach the most vulnerable pregnant women in the project's targeted area. A total of 212 pregnant women have been reached by service providers for RPNC during the implementation period. The trained service providers offer quality antenatal and postnatal care, including newborn care, via telephone calls. It includes 24/7 incoming calls and time-allotted outgoing calls to the pregnant women during antenatal and postnatal periods, including the newborn care. The required data were collected daily in time with the calls, and the quality of the medical services is made assured with the track of the calls, ensuring data privacy and patient confidentiality. Lessons learned: The key lessons are 1) cost-effectiveness: RPNC service could reduce out of pocket expenditure of pregnant women as it only costs 1.6 United States dollars (USD) per one telehealth call while it costs 8 to 10 USD per one time in-person care service at private service providers, including transportation cost, 2) network of care: telehealth call could not replace the in-person antenatal and postnatal care services, and integration of telehealth calls with in-person care by local healthcare providers with the support of the community is crucial for accessibility to essential MNH services by poor and vulnerable women, and 3) sharing information on health access points: most of the women seem to have financial barriers in accessing private health facilities while public health system collapse and telehealthcare could provide information on low-cost facilities and connect women to relevant health facilities. These key lessons are important for future efforts regarding the implementation of remote pregnancy and newborn care in Myanmar, especially during the political crisis and COVID-19 pandemic situation.Keywords: telehealth, accessibility, maternal care, newborn care
Procedia PDF Downloads 1016253 Implementing a Comprehensive Emergency Care and Life Support Course in a Low- and Middle-Income Country Setting: A Survey of Learners in India
Authors: Vijayabhaskar Reddy Kandula, Peter Provost Taillac, Balasubramanya M. A., Ram Krishnan Nair, Gokul Toshnival, Vibhu Dhawan, Vijaya Karanam, Buffy Cramer
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Introduction: The lack of Emergency Care Services (ECS) is a cause of extensive and serious public health problems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), Many LMIC countries have ambulance services that allow timely transfer of ill patients but due to poor care during the ‘Golden Hour’ many deaths occur which are otherwise preventable. Lack of adequate training as evidenced by a study in India is a major reason for poor care during the ‘Golden Hour’. Adapting developed country models which includes staffing specialty-trained doctors in emergency care, is neither feasible nor guarantees cost-effective ECS. Methods: Based on our assessment and felt needs by first-line doctors providing emergency care in 2014, Rajiv Gandhi Health Sciences University’s JeevaRaksha Trust in partnership with the University of Utah, USA, designed, piloted and successfully implemented a 4-day Comprehensive-Emergency Care and Life Support course (C-ECLS) for allopathic doctors. 1730 doctors completed the 4-day course between June 2014 and December- 2020. Subsequently, we conducted a survey to investigate the utilization rates and usefulness of the training. 1662 were contacted but only 309 completed the survey. The respondents had the following designations: Senior faculty (33%), junior faculty (25), Resident (16%), Private-Practitioners (8%), Medical-Officer (16%) and not-working (11%). 51% were generalists (51%) and the rest were specialists (>30 specialties). Results: 97% (271/280) felt they are better doctors because of C-ECLS. 79% (244/309) reported that training helped to save life- specialists more likely than generalists (91% v/s 68%. P<0.05). 64% agreed that they were confident of managing COVID-19 symptomatic patients better because of C-ECLS. 27% (77) were neutral; 9% (24) disagreed. 66% agreed that training helps to be confident in managing COVID-19 critically ill patients. 26% (72) were neutral; 8% (23) disagreed. Frequency of use of C-ECLS skills: Hemorrhage-control (70%), Airway (67%), circulation skills (62%), Safe-transport and communication (60%), managing critically ill patients (58%), cardiac arrest (51%), Trauma (49%), poisoning/animal bites/stings (44%), neonatal-resuscitation (39%), breathing (36%), post-partum-hemorrhage and eclampsia (35%). Among those who used the skills, the majority (ranging from (88%-94%) reported that they were able to apply the skill more effectively because of ECLS training. Conclusion: JeevaRaksha’s C-ECLS is the world’s first comprehensive training. It improves the confidence of front-line doctors and enables them to provide quality care during the ‘Golden Hour’ of emergency. It also prepares doctors to manage unknown emergencies (e.g., COVID-19). C-ECLS was piloted in Morocco, and Uzbekistan and implemented countrywide in Bhutan. C-ECLS is relevant to most settings and offers a replicable model across LMIC.Keywords: comprehensive emergency care and life support, training, capacity building, low- and middle-income countries, developing countries
Procedia PDF Downloads 676252 Oil Demand Forecasting in China: A Structural Time Series Analysis
Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia
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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)
Procedia PDF Downloads 2836251 On the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Markets: A Multivariate Long-Memory GARCH Framework
Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem
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This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH
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