Search results for: pose estimates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1179

Search results for: pose estimates

429 The Crossroads of Corruption and Terrorism in the Global South

Authors: Stephen M. Magu

Abstract:

The 9/11 and Christmas bombing attacks in the United States are mostly associated with the inability of intelligence agencies to connect dots based on intelligence that was already available. The 1998, 2002, 2013 and several 2014 terrorist attacks in Kenya, on the other hand, are probably driven by a completely different dynamic: the invisible hand of corruption. The World Bank and Transparency International annually compute the Worldwide Governance Indicators and the Corruption Perception Index respectively. What perhaps is not adequately captured in the corruption metrics is the impact of corruption on terrorism. The World Bank data includes variables such as the control of corruption, (estimates of) government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law and voice and accountability. TI's CPI does not include measures related to terrorism, but it is plausible that there is an expectation of some terrorism impact arising from corruption. This paper, by examining the incidence, frequency and total number of terrorist attacks that have occurred especially since 1990, and further examining the specific cases of Kenya and Nigeria, argues that in addition to having major effects on governance, corruption has an even more frightening impact: that of facilitating and/or violating security mechanisms to the extent that foreign nationals can easily obtain identification that enables them to perpetuate major events, targeting powerful countries' interests in countries with weak corruption-fighting mechanisms. The paper aims to model interactions that demonstrate the cost/benefit analysis and agents' rational calculations as being non-rational calculations, given the ultimate impact. It argues that eradication of corruption is not just a matter of a better business environment, but that it is implicit in national security, and that for anti-corruption crusaders, this is an argument more potent than the economic cost / cost of doing business argument.

Keywords: corruption, global south, identification, passports, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 411
428 Technologies of Factory Farming: An Exploration of Ongoing Confrontations with Farm Animal Sanctuaries

Authors: Chetna Khandelwal

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This research aims to study the contentions that Farm Animal Sanctuaries pose to human-animal relationships in modernity, which have developed as a result of globalisation of the meat industry and advancements in technology. The sociological history of human-animal relationships in farming is contextualised in order to set a foundation for the follow-up examination of challenges to existing human-(farm)animal relationships by Farm Animal Sanctuaries. The methodology was influenced by relativism, and the method involved three semi-structured small-group interviews, conducted at locations of sanctuaries. The sample was chosen through purposive sampling and varied by location and size of the sanctuary. Data collected were transcribed and qualitatively coded to generate themes. Findings revealed that sanctuary contentions to established human-animal relationships by factory farming could be divided into 4 broad categories – Revealing horrors of factory farming (involving uncovering power relations in agribusiness); transforming relationships with animals (including letting them emotionally heal in accordance with their individual personalities and treating them as partial-pets); educating the public regarding welfare conditions in factory farms as well as animal sentience through practical experience or positive imagery of farm animals, and addressing retaliation made by agribusiness in the form of technologies or discursive strategies. Hence, this research concludes that The human-animal relationship in current times has been characterised by – (ideological and physical) distance from farm animals, commodification due to increased chasing of profits over welfare and exploitation using technological advancements, creating unequal power dynamics that rid animals of any agency. Challenges to this relationship can be influenced by local populations around the sanctuary but not so dependent upon the size of it. This research can benefit from further academic exploration into farm animal sanctuaries and their role in feminist animal rights activism to enrich the ongoing fight against intensive farming.

Keywords: animal rights, factory farming, farm animal sanctuaries, human-animal relationships

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
427 Estimate Robert Gordon University's Scope Three Emissions by Nearest Neighbor Analysis

Authors: Nayak Amar, Turner Naomi, Gobina Edward

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The Scottish Higher Education Institutes must report their scope 1 & 2 emissions, whereas reporting scope 3 is optional. Scope 3 is indirect emissions which embodies a significant component of total carbon footprint and therefore it is important to record, measure and report it accurately. Robert Gordon University (RGU) reported only business travel, grid transmission and distribution, water supply and transport, and recycling scope 3 emissions. This study estimates the RGUs total scope 3 emissions by comparing it with a similar HEI in scale. The scope 3 emission reporting of sixteen Scottish HEI was studied. Glasgow Caledonian University was identified as the nearest neighbour by comparing its students' full time equivalent, staff full time equivalent, research-teaching split, budget, and foundation year. Apart from the peer, data was also collected from the Higher Education Statistics Agency database. RGU reported emissions from business travel, grid transmission and distribution, water supply, and transport and recycling. This study estimated RGUs scope 3 emissions from procurement, student-staff commute, and international student trip. The result showed that RGU covered only 11% of the scope 3 emissions. The major contributor to scope 3 emissions were procurement (48%), student commute (21%), international student trip (16%), and staff commute (4%). The estimated scope 3 emission was more than 14 times the reported emissions. This study has shown the relative importance of each scope 3 emissions source, which gives a guideline for the HEIs, on where to focus their attention to capture maximum scope 3 emissions. Moreover, it has demonstrated that it is possible to estimate the scope 3 emissions with limited data.

Keywords: HEI, university, emission calculations, scope 3 emissions, emissions reporting

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426 Landcover Mapping Using Lidar Data and Aerial Image and Soil Fertility Degradation Assessment for Rice Production Area in Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Philippines

Authors: Eliza. E. Camaso, Guiller. B. Damian, Miguelito. F. Isip, Ronaldo T. Alberto

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Land-cover maps were important for many scientific, ecological and land management purposes and during the last decades, rapid decrease of soil fertility was observed to be due to land use practices such as rice cultivation. High-precision land-cover maps are not yet available in the area which is important in an economy management. To assure   accurate mapping of land cover to provide information, remote sensing is a very suitable tool to carry out this task and automatic land use and cover detection. The study did not only provide high precision land cover maps but it also provides estimates of rice production area that had undergone chemical degradation due to fertility decline. Land-cover were delineated and classified into pre-defined classes to achieve proper detection features. After generation of Land-cover map, of high intensity of rice cultivation, soil fertility degradation assessment in rice production area due to fertility decline was created to assess the impact of soils used in agricultural production. Using Simple spatial analysis functions and ArcGIS, the Land-cover map of Municipality of Quezon in Nueva Ecija, Philippines was overlaid to the fertility decline maps from Land Degradation Assessment Philippines- Bureau of Soils and Water Management (LADA-Philippines-BSWM) to determine the area of rice crops that were most likely where nitrogen, phosphorus, zinc and sulfur deficiencies were induced by high dosage of urea and imbalance N:P fertilization. The result found out that 80.00 % of fallow and 99.81% of rice production area has high soil fertility decline.

Keywords: aerial image, landcover, LiDAR, soil fertility degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
425 Bimetallic MOFs Based Membrane for the Removal of Heavy Metal Ions from the Industrial Wastewater

Authors: Muhammad Umar Mushtaq, Muhammad Bilal Khan Niazi, Nouman Ahmad, Dooa Arif

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Apart from organic dyes, heavy metals such as Pb, Ni, Cr, and Cu are present in textile effluent and pose a threat to humans and the environment. Many studies on removing heavy metallic ions from textile wastewater have been conducted in recent decades using metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). In this study new polyether sulfone ultrafiltration membrane, modified with Cu/Co and Cu/Zn-based bimetal-organic frameworks (MOFs), was produced. Phase inversion was used to produce the membrane, and atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were used to characterize it. The bimetallic MOFs-based membrane structure is complex and can be comprehended using characterization techniques. The bimetallic MOF-based filtration membranes are designed to selectively adsorb specific contaminants while allowing the passage of water molecules, improving the ultrafiltration efficiency. MOFs' adsorption capacity and selectivity are enhanced by functionalizing them with particular chemical groups or incorporating them into composite membranes with other materials, such as polymers. The morphology and performance of the bimetallic MOF-based membrane were investigated regarding pure water flux and metal ion rejection. The advantages of developed bimetallic MOFs based membranes for wastewater treatment include enhanced adsorption capacity because of the presence of two metals in their structure, which provides additional binding sites for contaminants, leading to a higher adsorption capacity and more efficient removal of pollutants from wastewater. Based on the experimental findings, bimetallic MOF-based membranes are more capable of rejecting metal ions from industrial wastewater than conventional membranes that have already been developed. Furthermore, the difficulties associated with operational parameters, including pressure gradients and velocity profiles, are simulated using Ansys Fluent software. The simulation results obtained for the operating parameters are in complete agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: bimetallic MOFs, heavy metal ions, industrial wastewater treatment, ultrafiltration.

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424 Managing Sunflower Price Risk from a South African Oil Crushing Company’s Perspective

Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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The integral role oil-crushing companies play in sunflower oil production is often overlooked to offer high-quality oil to refineries and end consumers. Sunflower oil crushing companies in South Africa are exposed to price fluctuations resulting from the local and international markets. Hedging instruments enable these companies to hedge themselves against unexpected prices spikes and to ensure sustained profitability. A crushing company is a necessary middleman, and as such, these companies have exposure to the purchasing and selling sides of sunflower. Sunflower oil crushing companies purchase sunflower seeds from farmers or agricultural companies that provide storage facilities. The purchasing price is determined by the supply and demand of sunflower seed, both national and international. When the price of sunflower seeds in South Africa is high but still below import parity, then the crush margins realised by these companies are reduced or even negative at times. There are three main products made by sunflower oil crushing companies, oil, meal, and shells. Profits are realised from selling three products, namely, sunflower oil, meal and shells. However, when selling sunflower oil to refineries, sunflower oil crushing companies needs to hedge themselves against a reduction in vegetable oil prices. Hedging oil prices is often done via futures and is subject to specific volume commitments before a hedge position can be taken in. Furthermore, South African oil-crushing companies hedge sunflower oil with international, Over-the-counter contracts as South Africa is a price taker of sunflower oil and not a price maker. As such, South Africa provides a fraction of the world’s sunflower oil supply and, therefore, has minimal influence on price changes. The advantage of hedging using futures ensures that the sunflower crushing company will know the profits they will realise, but the downside is that they can no longer benefit from a price increase. Alternative hedging instruments like options might pose a solution to the opportunity cost does not go missing and that profit margins are locked in at the best possible prices for the oil crushing company. This paper aims to investigate the possibility of employing options alongside futures to simulate different scenarios to determine if options can bridge the opportunity cost gap.

Keywords: derivatives, hedging, price risk, sunflower, sunflower oil, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
423 Decision Making in Medicine and Treatment Strategies

Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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422 Use of the Budyko Framework to Estimate the Virtual Water Content in Shijiazhuang Plain, North China

Authors: Enze Zhang

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One of the most challenging steps in implementing virtual water content (VWC) analysis of crops is to get properly the total volume of consumptive water use (CWU) and, therefore, the choice of a reliable crop CWU estimation method. In practice, lots of previous researches obtaining CWU of crops follow a classical procedure for calculating crop evapotranspiration which is determined by multiplying reference evapotranspiration by appropriate coefficient, such as crop coefficient and water stress coefficients. However, this manner of calculation requires lots of field experimental data at point scale and more seriously, when current growing conditions differ from the standard conditions, may easily produce deviation between the calculated CWU and the actual CWU. Since evapotranspiration caused by crop planting always plays a vital role in surface water-energy balance in an agricultural region, this study decided to alternatively estimates crop evapotranspiration by Budyko framework. After brief introduce the development process of Budyko framework. We choose a modified Budyko framework under unsteady-state to better evaluated the actual CWU and apply it in an agricultural irrigation area in North China Plain which rely on underground water for irrigation. With the agricultural statistic data, this calculated CWU was further converted into VWC and its subdivision of crops at the annual scale. Results show that all the average values of VWC, VWC_blue and VWC_green show a downward trend with increased agricultural production and improved acreage. By comparison with the previous research, VWC calculated by Budyko framework agree well with part of the previous research and for some other research the value is greater. Our research also suggests that this methodology and findings may be reliable and convenient for investigation of virtual water throughout various agriculture regions of the world.

Keywords: virtual water content, Budyko framework, consumptive water use, crop evapotranspiration

Procedia PDF Downloads 320
421 Modified Weibull Approach for Bridge Deterioration Modelling

Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

Procedia PDF Downloads 714
420 Alternating Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for a Bilinear Model in Isoform Quantification from RNA-Seq Data

Authors: Wenjiang Deng, Tian Mou, Yudi Pawitan, Trung Nghia Vu

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Estimation of isoform-level gene expression from RNA-seq data depends on simplifying assumptions, such as uniform reads distribution, that are easily violated in real data. Such violations typically lead to biased estimates. Most existing methods provide a bias correction step(s), which is based on biological considerations, such as GC content–and applied in single samples separately. The main problem is that not all biases are known. For example, new technologies such as single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) may introduce new sources of bias not seen in bulk-cell data. This study introduces a method called XAEM based on a more flexible and robust statistical model. Existing methods are essentially based on a linear model Xβ, where the design matrix X is known and derived based on the simplifying assumptions. In contrast, XAEM considers Xβ as a bilinear model with both X and β unknown. Joint estimation of X and β is made possible by simultaneous analysis of multi-sample RNA-seq data. Compared to existing methods, XAEM automatically performs empirical correction of potentially unknown biases. XAEM implements an alternating expectation-maximization (AEM) algorithm, alternating between estimation of X and β. For speed XAEM utilizes quasi-mapping for read alignment, thus leading to a fast algorithm. Overall XAEM performs favorably compared to other recent advanced methods. For simulated datasets, XAEM obtains higher accuracy for multiple-isoform genes, particularly for paralogs. In a differential-expression analysis of a real scRNA-seq dataset, XAEM achieves substantially greater rediscovery rates in an independent validation set.

Keywords: alternating EM algorithm, bias correction, bilinear model, gene expression, RNA-seq

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419 Development of an Integrated Framework for Life-Cycle Economic, Environmental and Human Health Impact Assessment for Reclaimed Water Use in Water Systems of Various Scales

Authors: Yu-Yao Wang, Xiao-Meng Hu, Joanne Yeung, Xiao-Yan Li

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The high private cost and unquantified external cost limit the development of reclaimed water. In this study, an integrated framework comprising life cycle assessment (LCA), quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), and life cycle costing (LCC) was developed to evaluate both costs of reclaimed water supply in water systems of various scales. LCA assesses the environmental impacts, and QMRA estimates the associated pathogenic impacts. These impacts are monetized as external costs and analyzed with the private cost by LCC to count the total life cycle cost. The framework evaluated the Hong Kong urban water system in the baseline scenario (BS) and five wastewater reuse scenarios (RS). They are RSI: substituting freshwater for toilet flushing only, RSII: substituting both freshwater and seawater for toilet flushing, RSIII: using reclaimed water for all non-potable uses, RSIV: using reclaimed water for all non-potable uses and indirect potable uses, and RSV: non-potable use and indirect potable use by conveying 100% reclaimed water to recharge the reservoirs. The results show that substituting freshwater and seawater for toilet flushing has the least total life cycle cost, exhibiting that it is the most cost-effective option for Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the evaluation results show that the external cost of each scenario is comparable to the corresponding private cost, indicating the importance of the inclusion of comprehensive external cost evaluation in private cost assessment of water systems with reclaimed water supply.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, quantitative microbial risk assessment, water reclamation, reclaimed water, alternative water resources

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418 The Chemical Composition and Larvicidal Activity of Essential Oils Derived from Piper Longepetiolatum and Piper Brachypetiolatum (Piperaceae) Against Aedes Aegypti Larvae (Culicidae) Were Investigated

Authors: Suelen C. Lima, André C. de Oliveira, Rosemary A. Roque

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Dengue is fatal arboviruses transmitted by the A. aegypti mosquito to more than 100 countries, for which the WHO estimates that 2.5 million people will be infected by these disease. The widespread of these diseases is due, among other factors, to the resistance that A. aegypti has to several commercial insecticides. On the other hand, natural products based on plants of the genus Piper (Piperaceae) are characterized by their insecticidal activities against mosquitoes. Piper longepetiolatum and Piper brachypetiolatum are species with wide distribution in the State of Amazonas. However, there is no investigation of phytochemical or biological of these plants against mosquitoes such as A. aegypti. The main of this study was to identify the chemical composition of the essential oil (EOs) from P. longepetiolatum and P. brachypetiolatum and to evaluate the biological activity against A. aegypti. The EOs were extracted by hydrodistillation from leaves (200 g) of P. longepetiolatum and P. brachypetiolatum and analyzed by GC-MS and GC-FID. The main compounds β-caryophyllene (99.9% of purity) and E-nerolidol (99.4% of purity) were purchased from Sigma-Aldrich® Brazil. The larvicidal activity of EOs (20 to 100 ppm), β-caryophyllene and E-nerolidol (10 to 50 ppm) was performed according to WHO protocol against A. aegypti larvae. The GC-MS and GC-FID analysis of EOs from P. longepetiolatum and P. brachypetiolatum indicated the majority presence of β-caryophyllene (35.42%) and E-nerolidol (49.79%), respectively. The results showed that all natural products presented larvicidal activity against A. aegypti. In this aspect, the OE from P. brachypetiolatum (LC50 of 15.51 ppm and LC90 of 22.79 ppm) was more active than the OE from P. longepetiolatum (LC50 of 47.17 ppm and LC90 of 69.60 ppm) (p < 0.05). Regarding of main compounds, E-nerolidol (LC50 of 9.50 ppm and LC90 of 23.89 ppm) showed higher larvicidal activity than the β-caryophyllene compound (LC50 of 79.00 ppm and LC90 of 230.91 ppm) (p < 0.05). The larvae treated with these natural products showed tremors and lethargic movements, suggesting that these natural products have neurotoxic action. These observations support studies to investigate the mechanism of action. This is the first record of the chemical composition and larvicidal activity of the EO from P. longepetiolatum and P. brachypetiolatum rich in β-caryophyllene and E-nerolidol against A. aegypti larvae.

Keywords: piperaceae, aedes, sesquiterpenes, biological control

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417 Family Treatment Drug Court Cost Analysis: An In-depth Look At The Cost And Savings Of A Southeastern Family Treatment Drug Court

Authors: Ashley R. Logsdon, Becky F. Antle, Cynthia M. Kamer

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This study examines the cost and benefits of a family treatment drug court in an urban county in a southeastern state. Additionally, this cost analysis will provide a detailed description of the type and cost of activities to produce the services provided to child welfare families. This study utilized return-on-investment analysis, which uses child welfare practices, disaggregates them into separate activities and estimates costs for these activities including child-level placement data for total cost of care for the child. Direct and indirect costs were considered as well as saving calculations what costs would be associated with child welfare outcomes both short and long term. The costs included were general program costs (salaries, drug screens, transportation, childcare, parent education, program evaluation, visitation, incentives) or personnel costs for other team members (judges, court administrators, child welfare workers, child welfare supervisors, and community mental health provider). The savings that were used in the study were length of time in out of home care, Medicaid costs, substance exposed births, emergency room utilization and jail/probation costs. This study documents an overall savings of between $168,993.30 and $837,993.30. The total savings per family divided by the 40 families who have participated in the program was between $4,224.83 to $20,949.83 per family. The results of this cost benefit analysis are consistent with prior research documenting savings associated with out of home care and jail/probation; however, there are also unique contributions of this study to the literature on cost effectiveness of family treatment drug courts. We will present recommendations for further utilization of family treatment drug courts and how to expand the current model.

Keywords: child welfare, cost analysis, family drug court, family treatment drug court

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
416 Urban Sustainable Development with Flood Crisis Management Approach

Authors: Ali Liaghat, Navid Tavanpour, Nima Tavanpour

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An increase in population and prevalence of urbanity have led plan makers and decision makers put effort into sustainable development of cities at national and local levels. One of the important issues in urban development is compliance with safety issues in cities. Despite natural disasters and unexpected events such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, etc., urban development should be regarded as an axiom, or else any form of construction and development is not safe, because it will greatly harm economic growth and development and pose an obstacle to achieving sustainable development, plus a loss to lives and finances of people. Therefore, in line with urban development, it is necessary to identify particular environmental and local issues as determinants and pay attention to them at the top of everything, in that we can call it a good action and factor in urban sustainable developments. Physical structure of each city represents how it has developed or its development shaped and what incidents, changes, natural disasters it has undergone over time. Since any form of development plan should be in accordance with the previous situations of cities, disregarding it, unfortunately, can escalate into uncontrolled urban development, non-resistant and unstable construction against earthquake or invasion of river areas, destruction of agricultural lands or vegetation, periodic floods over time. It has been viewed as serious threats to developing cities, and typically caused destruction of bed and other urban facilities as well as damages to lives and finances. In addition, uncontrolled development has caused cities to look ugly in terms of urban façade, and off and on such unplanned measures caused the country to face countless losses, and it not only vitiates expenses incurred, but it will also impose additional costs of reconstruction, i.e. it is unsustainable development. Thus, in this paper, in addition to a discussion about necessity for a profound attitude toward this subject and making long-term plans, programs for organizing river and its surrounding area, creating open and green urban spaces, retrofitting and flood preventing are presented for sustainable safety and development of cities along with a critique of successful countries.

Keywords: flood, sustainable development, urbanisation, urban management

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415 Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus: a Sustainability Understanding from the BRICS Economies

Authors: Smart E. Amanfo

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Although the exact functional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and development remains a complex social science, there is a sustained growing of agreement among energy economists and the likes on direct or indirect role of energy use in the development process, and as sustenance for many of societal achieved socio-economic and environmental developments in any economy. According to OECD, the world economy will double by 2050 in which the two members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries: China and India lead. There is a global apprehension that if countries constituting the epicenter of the present and future economic growth follow the same trajectory as during and after Industrial Revolution, involving higher energy throughputs, especially fossil fuels, the already known and models predicted threats of climate change and global warming could be exacerbated, especially in the developing economies. The international community’s challenge is how to address the trilemma of economic growth, social development, poverty eradication and stability of the ecological systems. This paper aims at providing the estimates of economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions using BRICS members’ panel data from 1980 to 2017. The preliminary results based on fixed effect econometric model show positive significant relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The paper further identified a strong relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions which suggests that the global agenda of low-carbon-led growth and development is not a straight forward achievable The study therefore highlights the need for BRICS member states to intensify low-emissions-based production and consumption policies, increase renewables in order to avoid further deterioration of climate change impacts.

Keywords: BRICS, sustainability, sustainable development, energy consumption, economic growth

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414 Seroprevalence of Hepatitis B and C among Healthcare Workers in Dutse Metropolis, Jigawa State, Nigeria

Authors: N. M. Sani, I. Bitrus, A. M. Sarki, N. S. Mujahid

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Hepatitis is one of the neglected infectious diseases in sub Saharan Africa, and most of the available data is based on blood donors. Health care workers (HCWs) often get infected as a result of their close contact with patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B and C among this group of professionals with a view to improving the quality of care to their patients. Hepatitis B and C infections pose a major public health problem worldwide. While infection is highest in the developing world particularly Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, healthcare workers are at higher risk of acquiring blood-borne viral infections, particularly Hepatitis B and C which are mostly asymptomatic. This study was aimed at determining the prevalence of Hepatitis B and C infections and associated risk factors among health care workers in Dutse Metropolis, Jigawa State - Nigeria. A standard rapid immuno-chromatographic technique i.e. rapid ELISA was used to screen all sera for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and Hepatitis C viral antibody (HCVAb) respectively. Strips containing coated antibodies and antigens to HBV and HCV respectively were removed from the foil. Strips were labeled according to samples. Using a separate disposable pipette, 2 drops of the sample (plasma) were added into each test strip and allowed to run across the absorbent pad. Results were read after 15 minutes. The prevalence of HBV and HCV infection in 100 healthcare workers was determined by testing the plasma collected from the clients during their normal checkup using HBsAg and HCVAb test strips. Results were subjected to statistical analysis using chi-square test. The prevalence of HBV among HCWs was 19 out of 100 (19.0%) and that of HCV was 5 out of 100 (5.0%) where in both cases, higher prevalence was observed among female nurses. It was also observed that all HCV positive cases were recorded among nurses only. The study revealed that nurses are at greater risk of contracting HBV and HCV due to their frequent contact with patients. It is therefore recommended that effective vaccination and other infection control measures be encouraged among healthcare workers.

Keywords: prevalence, hepatitis, viruses, healthcare workers, infection

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413 Advancing Environmental Remediation Through the Production of Functional Porous Materials from Phosphorite Residue Tailings

Authors: Ali Mohammed Yimer, Ayalew Assen, Youssef Belmabkhout

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Environmental remediation is a pressing global concern, necessitating innovative strategies to address the challenges posed by industrial waste and pollution. This study aims to advance environmental remediation by developing cutting-edge functional porous materials from phosphorite residue tailings. Phosphorite mining activities generate vast amounts of waste, which pose significant environmental risks due to their contaminants. The proposed approach involved transforming these phosphorite residue tailings into valuable porous materials through a series of physico-chemical processes including milling, acid-base leaching, designing or templating as well as formation processes. The key components of the tailings were extracted and processed to produce porous arrays with high surface area and porosity. These materials were engineered to possess specific properties suitable for environmental remediation applications, such as enhanced adsorption capacity and selectivity for target contaminants. The synthesized porous materials were thoroughly characterized using advanced analytical techniques (XRD, SEM-EDX, N2 sorption, TGA, FTIR) to assess their structural, morphological, and chemical properties. The performance of the materials in removing various pollutants, including heavy metals and organic compounds, were evaluated through batch adsorption experiments. Additionally, the potential for material regeneration and reusability was investigated to enhance the sustainability of the proposed remediation approach. The outdoors of this research holds significant promise for addressing the environmental challenges associated with phosphorite residue tailings. By valorizing these waste materials into porous materials with exceptional remediation capabilities, this study contributes to the development of sustainable and cost-effective solutions for environmental cleanup. Furthermore, the utilization of phosphorite residue tailings in this manner offers a potential avenue for the remediation of other contaminated sites, thereby fostering a circular economy approach to waste management.

Keywords: functional porous materials, phosphorite residue tailings, adsorption, environmental remediation, sustainable solutions

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412 Investigating the Antimicrobial Activity of Essential Oil Derived from Pistacia atlantica Gum against Extensively Drug-Resistant Gram-Negative Acinetobacter baumannii

Authors: Zhala Ahmad, Zainab Lazim, Haider Hamzah

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Bacterial resistance is a pressing global health issue, with multidrug-resistant (MDR), extensively drug-resistant (XDR), and pandrug-resistant (PDR) strains to pose a serious threat. In this context, researchers are investigating effective, safe, and affordable metabolites to combat these pathogens. This study focuses on gum essential oil (GEO) extracted from Pistacia atlantica and its activity and the mechanism of action against XDR Gram-negative Acinetobacter baumannii. GEO was extracted by hydrodistillation and analyzed using GC-MS. Eleven A. baumannii isolates were collected from the ward environment of Burn and Plastic Surgery Hospital in Al Sulaymaniyah City, Iraq. They were identified using the VITEK 2 system, 16S rRNA gene, and confirmed with the blaₒₓₐ₋₅₁ gene; A. baumannii ATCC 19606 was used as a reference strain. The isolates were identified as resistant to twelve different antibiotics spanning six distinct antibiotic classes while showing susceptibility to tetracycline and trimethoprim. Over 40 chemical constituents were detected in the gum's essential oils, with α-pinene being the most abundant. GEO was found to inhibit the growth of A. baumannii isolates; the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of GEO was 2.5 µl/ml. GEO induced protein leakage, phosphate, and potassium ion efflux, distorted cell morphology, and cell death in the tested bacteria. GEO exhibited bacterial clearance and anti-adhesion activity using Band-Aids. This study's findings suggest that GEO could be used as a potential alternative treatment for infectious diseases caused by XRD pathogens, shedding further light on the importance of GEO in biomedical applications. Future studies must focus on generating clinically feasible sources of GEO for testing in small animal models before proceeding to human trials, ensuring safe and effective translation from the laboratory to the clinic.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, Acinetobacter baumannii, essential oils, Pistacia atlantica, alpha-pinene

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411 Evaluation of SCS-Curve Numbers and Runoff across Varied Tillage Methods

Authors: Umar Javed, Kristen Blann, Philip Adalikwu, Maryam Sahraei, John McMaine

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The soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) is a widely used method to assess direct runoff depth based on specific rainfall events. “Actual” estimated runoff depth was estimated by subtracting the change in soil moisture from the depth of precipitation for each discrete rain event during the growing seasons from 2021 to 2023. Fields under investigation were situated in a HUC-12 watershed in southeastern South Dakota selected for a common soil series (Nora-Crofton complex and Moody-Nora complex) to minimize the influence of soil texture on soil moisture. Two soil moisture probes were installed from May 2021 to October 2023, with exceptions during planting and harvest periods. For each field, “Textbook” CN estimates were derived from the TR-55 table based on corresponding mapped land use land cover LULC class and hydrologic soil groups from web soil survey maps. The TR-55 method incorporated HSG and crop rotation within the study area fields. These textbook values were then compared to actual CN values to determine the impact of tillage practices on CN and runoff. Most fields were mapped as having a textbook C or D HSG, but the HSG of actual CNs was that of a B or C hydrologic group. Actual CNs were consistently lower than textbook CNs for all management practices, but actual CNs in conventionally tilled fields were the highest (and closest to textbook CNs), while actual CNs in no-till fields were the lowest. Preliminary results suggest that no-till practice reduces runoff compared to conventional till. This research highlights the need to use CNs that incorporate agricultural management to more accurately estimate runoff at the field and watershed scale.

Keywords: curve number hydrology, hydrologic soil groups, runoff, tillage practices

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410 dynr.mi: An R Program for Multiple Imputation in Dynamic Modeling

Authors: Yanling Li, Linying Ji, Zita Oravecz, Timothy R. Brick, Michael D. Hunter, Sy-Miin Chow

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Assessing several individuals intensively over time yields intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Even though ILD provide rich information, they also bring other data analytic challenges. One of these is the increased occurrence of missingness with increased study length, possibly under non-ignorable missingness scenarios. Multiple imputation (MI) handles missing data by creating several imputed data sets, and pooling the estimation results across imputed data sets to yield final estimates for inferential purposes. In this article, we introduce dynr.mi(), a function in the R package, Dynamic Modeling in R (dynr). The package dynr provides a suite of fast and accessible functions for estimating and visualizing the results from fitting linear and nonlinear dynamic systems models in discrete as well as continuous time. By integrating the estimation functions in dynr and the MI procedures available from the R package, Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), the dynr.mi() routine is designed to handle possibly non-ignorable missingness in the dependent variables and/or covariates in a user-specified dynamic systems model via MI, with convergence diagnostic check. We utilized dynr.mi() to examine, in the context of a vector autoregressive model, the relationships among individuals’ ambulatory physiological measures, and self-report affect valence and arousal. The results from MI were compared to those from listwise deletion of entries with missingness in the covariates. When we determined the number of iterations based on the convergence diagnostics available from dynr.mi(), differences in the statistical significance of the covariate parameters were observed between the listwise deletion and MI approaches. These results underscore the importance of considering diagnostic information in the implementation of MI procedures.

Keywords: dynamic modeling, missing data, mobility, multiple imputation

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
409 Biomass and Carbon Stock Estimates of Woodlands in the Southeastern Escarpment of Ethiopian Rift Valley: An Implication for Climate Change Mitigation

Authors: Sultan Haji Shube

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Woodland ecosystems of semiarid rift valley of Ethiopia play a significant role in climate change mitigation by sequestering and storing more carbon. This study was conducted in Gidabo river sub-basins southeastern rift-valley escarpment of Ethiopian. It aims to estimate biomass and carbon stocks of woodlands and its implications for climate change mitigation. A total of 44 sampling plots (900m²each) were systematically laid in the woodland for vegetation and environmental data collection. A composite soil sample was taken from five locations main plot. Both disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were taken at two depths using soil auger and core-ring sampler, respectively. Allometric equation was used to estimate aboveground biomass while root-to-shoot ratio method and Walkley-Black method were used for belowground biomass and SOC, respectively. Result revealed that the totals of the study site was 17.05t/ha, of which 14.21t/ha was belonging for AGB and 2.84t/ha was for BGB. Moreover, 2224.7t/ha total carbon stocks was accumulated with an equivalent carbon dioxide of 8164.65t/ha. This study also revealed that more carbon was accumulated in the soil than the biomass. Both aboveground and belowground carbon stocks were decreased with increase in altitude while SOC stocks were increased. The AGC and BGC stocks were higher in the lower slope classes. SOC stocks were higher in the higher slope classes than in the lower slopes. Higher carbon stock was obtained from woody plants that had a DBH measure of >16cm and situated at plots facing northwest. Overall, study results will add up information about carbon stock potential of the woodland that will serve as a base line scenario for further research, policy makers and land managers.

Keywords: allometric equation, climate change mitigation, soil organic carbon, woodland

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408 Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow, Based on the Occurrence of Severe Floods in Kelantan, East Coasts of Peninsular Malaysia River Basin

Authors: Muhd. Barzani Gasim, Mohd. Ekhwan Toriman, Mohd. Khairul Amri Kamarudin, Azman Azid, Siti Humaira Haron, Muhammad Hafiz Md. Saad

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Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia that constantly exposed to flooding and landslide. The disaster has caused some troubles such loss of property, loss of life and discomfort of people involved. This problem occurs as a result of climate change leading to increased stream flow rate as a result of disruption to regional hydrological cycles. The aim of the study is to determine hydrologic processes in the east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, especially in Kelantan Basin. Parameterized to account for the spatial and temporal variability of basin characteristics and their responses to climate variability. For hydrological modeling of the basin, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model such as relief, soil type, and its use, and historical daily time series of climate and river flow rates are studied. The interpretation of Landsat map/land uses will be applied in this study. The combined of SWAT and climate models, the system will be predicted an increase in future scenario climate precipitation, increase in surface runoff, increase in recharge and increase in the total water yield. As a result, this model has successfully developed the basin analysis by demonstrating analyzing hydrographs visually, good estimates of minimum and maximum flows and severe floods observed during calibration and validation periods.

Keywords: east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, Kelantan river basin, minimum and maximum flows, severe floods, SWAT model

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
407 Geospatial Analysis for Predicting Sinkhole Susceptibility in Greene County, Missouri

Authors: Shishay Kidanu, Abdullah Alhaj

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Sinkholes in the karst terrain of Greene County, Missouri, pose significant geohazards, imposing challenges on construction and infrastructure development, with potential threats to lives and property. To address these issues, understanding the influencing factors and modeling sinkhole susceptibility is crucial for effective mitigation through strategic changes in land use planning and practices. This study utilizes geographic information system (GIS) software to collect and process diverse data, including topographic, geologic, hydrogeologic, and anthropogenic information. Nine key sinkhole influencing factors, ranging from slope characteristics to proximity to geological structures, were carefully analyzed. The Frequency Ratio method establishes relationships between attribute classes of these factors and sinkhole events, deriving class weights to indicate their relative importance. Weighted integration of these factors is accomplished using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method in a GIS environment, resulting in a comprehensive sinkhole susceptibility index (SSI) model for the study area. Employing Jenk's natural break classifier method, the SSI values are categorized into five distinct sinkhole susceptibility zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Validation of the model, conducted through the Area Under Curve (AUC) and Sinkhole Density Index (SDI) methods, demonstrates a robust correlation with sinkhole inventory data. The prediction rate curve yields an AUC value of 74%, indicating a 74% validation accuracy. The SDI result further supports the success of the sinkhole susceptibility model. This model offers reliable predictions for the future distribution of sinkholes, providing valuable insights for planners and engineers in the formulation of development plans and land-use strategies. Its application extends to enhancing preparedness and minimizing the impact of sinkhole-related geohazards on both infrastructure and the community.

Keywords: sinkhole, GIS, analytical hierarchy process, frequency ratio, susceptibility, Missouri

Procedia PDF Downloads 61
406 Domains of Socialization Interview: Development and Psychometric Properties

Authors: Dilek Saritas Atalar, Cansu Alsancak Akbulut, İrem Metin Orta, Feyza Yön, Zeynep Yenen, Joan Grusec

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Objective: The aim of this study was to develop semi-structured Domains of Socialization Interview and its coding manual and to test their psychometric properties. Domains of Socialization Interview was designed to assess maternal awareness regarding effective parenting in five socialization domains (protection, mutual reciprocity, control, guided learning, and group participation) within the framework of the domains-of-socialization approach. Method: A series of two studies were conducted to develop and validate the interview and its coding manual. The pilot study, sampled 13 mothers of preschool-aged children, was conducted to develop the assessment tools and to test their function and clarity. Participants of the main study were 82 Turkish mothers (Xage = 34.25, SD = 3.53) who have children aged between 35-76 months (Xage = 50.75, SD = 11.24). Mothers filled in a questionnaire package including Coping with Children’s Negative Emotions Questionnaire, Social Competence and Behavior Evaluation-30, Child Rearing Questionnaire, and Two Dimensional Social Desirability Questionnaire. Afterward, interviews were conducted online by a single interviewer. Interviews were rated independently by two graduate students based on the coding manual. Results: The relationships of the awareness of effective parenting scores to the other measures demonstrate convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity of the coding manual. Intra-class correlation coefficient estimates were ranged between 0.82 and 0.90, showing high interrater reliability of the coding manual. Conclusion: Taken as a whole, the results of these studies demonstrate the validity and reliability of a new and useful interview to measure maternal awareness regarding effective parenting within the framework of the domains-of-socialization approach.

Keywords: domains of socialization, parenting, interview, assessment

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405 Effect of Mineral Additives on Improving the Geotechnical Properties of Soils in Chlef

Authors: Messaoudi Mohammed Amin

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The reduction of available land resources and the increased cout associated with the use of hight quality materials have led to the need for local soils to be used in geotecgnical construction however, poor engineering properties of these soils pose difficulties for constructions project and need to be stabilized to improve their properties in oyher works unsuitable soils with low bearing capacity, high plasticity coupled with high insatbility are frequently encountered hense, there is a need to improve the physical and mechanical charateristics of these soils to make theme more suitable for construction this can be done by using different mechanical and chemical methods clayey soil stabilization has been practiced for quite sometime bu mixing additives, such us cement, lime and fly ash to the soil to increase its strength. The aim of this project is to study the effect of using lime, natural pozzolana or combination of both on the geotecgnical cherateristics of clayey soil. Test specimen were subjected to atterberg limits test, compaction test, box shear test and uncomfined compression test Lime or natural pozzolana was added to clayey soil at rangs of 0-8% and 0-20% respectively. In addition combinations of lime –natural pozzolana were added to clayey soil at the same ranges specimen were cured for 1-7, and 28 days after which they were tested for uncofined compression tests. Based on the experimental results, it was concluded that an important decrease of plasticity index was observed for thr samples stabilized with the combinition lime-natural pozzolana in addition, the use of the combination lime-natural pozzolana modifies the clayey soil classification according to casagrand plasiticity chart. Moreover, based on the favourable results of shear and compression strength obtained, it can be concluded that clayey soil can be successfuly stabilized by combined action of lime and natural pozzolana also this combination showed an appreciable improvement of the shear parameters. Finally, since natural pozzolana is much cheaper than lime ,the addition of natural pozzolana in lime soil mix may particulary become attractive and can result in cost reduction of construction.

Keywords: clay, soil stabilization, natural pozzolana, atterberg limits, compaction, compressive strength shear strength, curing

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404 Effect of Lowering the Proportion of Chlorella vulgaris in Fish Feed on Tilapia's Immune System

Authors: Hamza A. Pantami, Khozizah Shaari, Intan S. Ismail, Chong C. Min

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Introduction: Tilapia is the second-highest harvested freshwater fish species in Malaysia, available in almost all fish farms and markets. Unfortunately, tilapia culture in Malaysia is highly affected by Aeromonas hydrophila and Streptococcus agalactiae, which affect the production rate and consequently pose a direct negative economic impact. Reliance on drugs to control or reduce bacterial infections has been led to contamination of water bodies and development of drug resistance, as well as gave rise to toxicity issues in downstream fish products. Resorting to vaccines have helped curb the problem to a certain extent, but a more effective solution is still required. Using microalgae-based feed to enhance the fish immunity against bacterial infection offers a promising alternative. Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of Chlorella vulgaris at lower percentage incorporation in feeds for an immune boost of tilapia in a shorter time. Methods: The study was in two phases. The safety concentration studies at 500 mg/kg-1 and the administration of cultured C. vulgaris biomass via incorporation into fish feed for five different groups in three weeks. Group 1 was the control (0% incorporation), whereas group 2, 3, 4 and 5 received 0.625%, 1.25%, 2.5% and 5% incorporation respectively. The parameters evaluated were the blood profile, serum lysozyme activity (SLA), serum bactericidal activity (SBA), phagocytosis activity (PA), respiratory burst activity (RBA), and lymphoproliferation activity (LPA). The data were analyzed via ANOVA using SPSS (version 16). Further testing was done using Tukey’s test. All tests were performed at the 95% confidence interval (p < 0.05). Results: There were no toxic signs in tilapia fish at 500 mg/kg-1. Treated groups showed significantly better immune parameters compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Conclusions: C. vulgaris crude biomass in a fish meal at a lower incorporation level of 5% can increase specific and non-specific immunity in tilapia fish in a shorter time duration.

Keywords: Chlorella vulgaris, hematology profile, immune boost, lymphoproliferation

Procedia PDF Downloads 94
403 Following the Caravans: Interdisciplinary Study to Integrate Chinese and African Relations in Ethiopia

Authors: E. Mattio

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The aim of this project is to study the Chinese presence in Ethiopia, following the path of the last salt caravans from Danakil to Tigray region. Official estimates of the number of Chinese in Africa vary widely; on the continent, there are increasingly diverse groups of Chinese migrants in terms of language, dialect, class, education, and employment. Based on this and on a very general state of the art, it was decided to increase the studies on this phenomenon, documenting the extraction of salt and following the sellers in the north of the country. The project is unique and allows you to admire a landscape that will soon change, due to the construction of infrastructure that is changing the dynamics of movement and sales. To carry out this study, interdisciplinary investigation methods were integrated, such as landscape archeology, historiographic research, participatory anthropology, geopolitics, and cultural anthropology and ethnology. There are two main objectives of the research. The first was an analysis of risk perceptions to predict what will happen to these populations and how the territory will be modified, trying to monitor the growth of infrastructure in the country and the effects it will have on the population. Thanks to the use of GIS, some roads created by Chinese companies that worked in the area have been georeferenced. The second point was to document the life and rituals of Ethiopian populations, in order not to lose the aspects of uniqueness that risk being lost. The local interviews have garnered impressions and criticisms from the local population to understand whether the Chinese presence is perceived as a threat or a solution. Among the most exclusive interviews, there are those made to Afar leaders in the Logya area and some Coptic representatives in the Wukro area. To make this project even more unique, the Coptic rituals of Gennà and Timkat have been documented, unique expressions of a millennial tradition. The aim was to understand whether the Maoist presence began to influence the religious rites and forms of belief present in the country.

Keywords: China, Ethiopia, GIS, risk perceptions

Procedia PDF Downloads 137
402 A Comparative Analysis of the Private and Social Benefit-Cost Ratios of Organic and Inorganic Rice Farming: Case Study of Smallholder Farmers in the Aveyime Community, Ghana

Authors: Jerome E. Abiemo, Takeshi Mizunoya

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The Aveyime community in the Volta region of Ghana is one of the major hubs for rice production. In the past, rice farmers applied organic pesticides to control pests, and compost as a soil amendment to improve fertility and productivity. However, the introduction of chemical pesticides and fertilizers have led many farmers to convert to inorganic system of rice production, without considering the social costs (e.g. groundwater contamination and health costs) related to the use of pesticides. The study estimates and compares the private and social BCRs of organic and inorganic systems of rice production. Both stratified and simple random sampling techniques were employed to select 300 organic and inorganic rice farmers and 50 pesticide applicators. The respondents were interviewed with pre-tested questionnaires. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) which elucidates organic farmers` Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) was employed to estimate the cost of groundwater contamination. The Cost of Illness (COI) analysis was used to estimate the health cost of pesticide-induced poisoning of applicators. The data collated, was analyzed with the aid of Microsoft excel. The study found that high private benefit (e.g. increase in farm yield and income) was the most influential factor for the rapid adoption of pesticides among rice farmers. The study also shows that the social costs of inorganic rice production were high. As such the social BCR of inorganic farming (0.2) was low as compared to organic farming (0.7). Based on the results, it was recommended that government should impose pesticide environmental tax, review current agricultural policies to favour organic farming and promote extension education to farmers on pesticide risk, to ensure agricultural and environmental sustainability.

Keywords: benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), inorganic farming, pesticides, social cost

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401 The Impact of Model Specification Decisions on the Teacher ValuE-added Effectiveness: Choosing the Correct Predictors

Authors: Ismail Aslantas

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Value-Added Models (VAMs), the statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of teachers and schools based on student achievement growth, has attracted decision-makers’ and researchers’ attention over the last decades. As a result of this attention, many studies have conducted in recent years to discuss these statistical models from different aspects. This research focused on the importance of conceptual variables in VAM estimations; therefor, this research was undertaken to examine the extent to which value-added effectiveness estimates for teachers can be affected by using context predictions. Using longitudinal data over three years from the international school context, value-added teacher effectiveness was estimated by ordinary least-square value-added models, and the effectiveness of the teachers was examined. The longitudinal dataset in this study consisted of three major sources: students’ attainment scores up to three years and their characteristics, teacher background information, and school characteristics. A total of 1,027 teachers and their 35,355 students who were in eighth grade were examined for understanding the impact of model specifications on the value-added teacher effectiveness evaluation. Models were created using selection methods that adding a predictor on each step, then removing it and adding another one on a subsequent step and evaluating changes in model fit was checked by reviewing changes in R² values. Cohen’s effect size statistics were also employed in order to find out the degree of the relationship between teacher characteristics and their effectiveness. Overall, the results indicated that prior attainment score is the most powerful predictor of the current attainment score. 47.1 percent of the variation in grade 8 math score can be explained by the prior attainment score in grade 7. The research findings raise issues to be considered in VAM implementations for teacher evaluations and make suggestions to researchers and practitioners.

Keywords: model specification, teacher effectiveness, teacher performance evaluation, value-added model

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400 Demonstration of Land Use Changes Simulation Using Urban Climate Model

Authors: Barbara Vojvodikova, Katerina Jupova, Iva Ticha

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Cities in their historical evolution have always adapted their internal structure to the needs of society (for example protective city walls during classicism era lost their defense function, became unnecessary, were demolished and gave space for new features such as roads, museums or parks). Today it is necessary to modify the internal structure of the city in order to minimize the impact of climate changes on the environment of the population. This article discusses the results of the Urban Climate model owned by VITO, which was carried out as part of a project from the European Union's Horizon grant agreement No 730004 Pan-European Urban Climate Services Climate-Fit city. The use of the model was aimed at changes in land use and land cover in cities related to urban heat islands (UHI). The task of the application was to evaluate possible land use change scenarios in connection with city requirements and ideas. Two pilot areas in the Czech Republic were selected. One is Ostrava and the other Hodonín. The paper provides a demonstration of the application of the model for various possible future development scenarios. It contains an assessment of the suitability or inappropriateness of scenarios of future development depending on the temperature increase. Cities that are preparing to reconstruct the public space are interested in eliminating proposals that would lead to an increase in temperature stress as early as in the assignment phase. If they have evaluation on the unsuitability of some type of design, they can limit it into the proposal phases. Therefore, especially in the application of models on Local level - in 1 m spatial resolution, it was necessary to show which type of proposals would create a significant temperature island in its implementation. Such a type of proposal is considered unsuitable. The model shows that the building itself can create a shady place and thus contribute to the reduction of the UHI. If it sensitively approaches the protection of existing greenery, this new construction may not pose a significant problem. More massive interventions leading to the reduction of existing greenery create a new heat island space.

Keywords: climate model, heat islands, Hodonin, land use changes, Ostrava

Procedia PDF Downloads 120