Search results for: destination prediction

Authors: Tang Wei, Yang Xiaofeng, Gui Yewei, Du Yanxia

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Complex lifting entry was selected for precise landing performance during the Mars Science Laboratory entry. This study aims to develop the three-dimensional numerical method for precise computation and the surface panel method for rapid engineering prediction. Detailed flow field analysis for Mars exploration mission was performed by carrying on a series of fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes computations. The static aerodynamic performance was then discussed, including the surface pressure, lift and drag coefficient, lift-to-drag ratio with the numerical and engineering method. Computation results shown that the shock layer is thin because of lower effective specific heat ratio, and that calculated results from both methods agree well with each other, and is consistent with the reference data. Aerodynamic performance analysis shows that CG location determines trim characteristics and pitch stability, and certain radially and axially shift of the CG location can alter the capsule lifting entry performance, which is of vital significance for the aerodynamic configuration des0ign and inner instrument layout of the Mars entry capsule.

Keywords: Mars entry capsule, static aerodynamics, computational fluid dynamics, hypersonic

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Numair A. Siddiqui, Usman Muhammad, Manoj J. Mathew, Ramkumar M., Benjamin Sautter, Muhammad A. K. El-Ghali, David Menier, Shiqi Zhang

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The sedimentological parameterization of shallow-marine siliciclastic reservoirs in terms of reservoir quality and heterogeneity from outcrop study can help improve the subsurface reservoir prediction. An architectural analysis has documented variations in sandstone geometry and rock properties within shallow-marine sandstone exposed in the Miocene Sandakan Formation of Sabah, Borneo. This study demonstrates reservoir sandstone quality assessment for subsurface rock evaluation, from well-exposed successions of the Sandakan Formation, Borneo, with which applicable analogues can be identified. The analyses were based on traditional conventional field investigation of outcrops, grain-size and petrographic studies of hand specimens of different sandstone facies and gamma-ray and permeability measurements. On the bases of these evaluations, the studied sandstone was grouped into three qualitative reservoir rock classes; high (Ø=18.10 – 43.60%; k=1265.20 – 5986.25 mD), moderate (Ø=17.60 – 37%; k=21.36 – 568 mD) and low quality (Ø=3.4 – 15.7%; k=3.21 – 201.30 mD) for visualization and prediction of subsurface reservoir quality. These results provided analogy for shallow marine sandstone reservoir complexity that can be utilized in the evaluation of reservoir quality of regional and subsurface analogues.

Keywords: architecture and sedimentology, subsurface rock evaluation, reservoir quality, borneo

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Arsalan Ghaderi

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Introduction: Inactivity is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease. According to the study prevalence of inactivity in Iran, about 67.5% and in the staff, and especially nurses, are similar. The inflammatory index (HS-CRP) is highly predictive of the progression of these diseases. Physical activity education is very important in preventing these diseases. One of the modern educational methods is web-based theory-based education. Methods: This is a semi-experimental interventional study which was conducted in Isfahan and Kurdistan universities of medical sciences in two stages. A cross-sectional study was done to determine the status of physical activity and its predictive factors. Then, intervention was performed, and six months later the data were retrieved. The data was collected using a demographic questionnaire, an integrative model of behavior prediction constructs, a standard physical activity questionnaire and (HS-CRP) test. Data were analyzed by SPSS software. Results: Physical activity was low in 66.6% of nurses, 25.4% were moderate and 8% severe. According to Pearson correlation matrix, the highest correlation was found between behavioral intention and skill structures (0.553**), subjective norms (0.222**) and self-efficacy (0.198**). The relationship between age and physical activity in the first study was reverse and significant. After intervention, there was a significant change in attitudes, self-efficacy, skill and behavioral intention in the intervention group. This change was significant in attitudes, self-efficacy and environmental conditions of the control group. HS-CRP index decreased significantly after intervention in both groups, but there was not a significant relationship between inflammatory index and physical activity score. The change in physical activity level was significant only in the control group. Conclusion: Despite the effect of educational intervention on attitude, self-efficacy, skill, and behavioral intention, the results showed that if factors such as environmental factors are not corrected, training and changing structures cannot lead to physical activity behavior. On the other hand, no correlation between physical activity and HS-CRP showed that this index can be influenced by other factors, and this should be considered in any intervention to reduce the HS-CRP index.

Keywords: HS-CRP, integrative model of behavior prediction, physical activity, nurses, web-based education

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Authors: Supattra Pranee

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The objectives of this research were to study the product development process to obtain a community standard product certificate and to set a guideline for the product development process to obtain the community product certificate. Focus group discussion was conducted with many experts in the field, local government officials, and representatives from local producers in Bangkontee district. The findings revealed that there were eight important processes to obtain the community product certificate: 1) prepare document, 2) submit the document, 3) set up an appointment for onsite inspection, 4) onsite inspection and sample collections, 5) evaluate samples, 6) obtain test result, and 7) obtain certificate.

Keywords: perceived values, tourist destination, visiting, product development

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Authors: Nalinee Sophatsathit

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This paper presents a variation of navigation systems which tallies every node along the shortest path from start to destination nodes. The underlying technique rests on the well-established Dijkstra Algorithm. The ultimate goal is to serve as a user navigation guide that furnishes stop over cost of every node along this shortest path, whereby users can decide whether or not to visit any specific nodes. The output is an implementable module that can be further refined to run on the Internet and smartphone technology. This will benefit large organizations having physical installations spreaded over wide area such as hospitals, universities, etc. The savings on service personnel, let alone lost time and unproductive work, are attributive to innovative navigation system management.

Keywords: navigation systems, shortest path, smartphone technology, user navigation guide

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Adil Balla Elkrail

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Visual MODFLOW computer codes were selected to simulate head distribution, calculate the groundwater budgets of the area, and evaluate the effect of external stresses on the groundwater head and to demonstrate how the groundwater model can be used as a comparative technique in order to optimize utilization of the groundwater resource. A conceptual model of the study area, aquifer parameters, boundary, and initial conditions were used to simulate the flow model. The trial-and-error technique was used to calibrate the model. The most important criteria used to check the calibrated model were Root Mean Square error (RMS), Mean Absolute error (AM), Normalized Root Mean Square error (NRMS) and mass balance. The maps of the simulated heads elaborated acceptable model calibration compared to observed heads map. A time length of eight years and the observed heads of the year 2004 were used for model prediction. The predictive simulation showed that the continuation of pumping will cause relatively high changes in head distribution and components of groundwater budget whereas, the low deficit computed (7122 m3/d) between inflows and outflows cannot create a significant drawdown of the potentiometric level. Hence, the area under consideration may represent a high permeability and productive zone and strongly recommended for further groundwater development.

Keywords: aquifers, model simulation, groundwater, calibrations, trail-and- error, prediction

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Authors: Francisco Reyes, Hector Ramirez

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In the coastal zones are home to mangrove swamps, coral reefs, and seagrass ecosystems, which are the most biodiverse and fragile on the planet. These areas support a great diversity of marine life; they are also extraordinarily important for humans in the provision of food, water, wood, and other associated goods and services; they also contribute to climate regulation. The lack of an automated model that generates information on the dynamics of changes in coastlines and coastal erosion is identified as a central problem. Coastlines were determined from 1984 to 2020 on the Google Earth platform Engine from Landsat and Sentinel images, using the Normalized Differential Water Index (MNDWI) and Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) v5.0. Starting from the 2020 coastline, the 10-year prediction (Year 2031) was determined with the erosion of 238.32 hectares and an accretion of 181.96 hectares, while the 20-year prediction (Year 2041) will be presented an erosion of 544.04 hectares and an accretion of 133.94 hectares. The erosion and accretion of Playa Muelle in the municipality of Puerto Colombia were established, which will register the highest value of erosion. The coverage that presented the greatest change was that of artificialized Territories.

Keywords: coastline, coastal erosion, MNDWI, Google Earth Engine, Colombia

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Authors: Luca Zarrilli, Miguel Brito, Marianna Cappucci

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Tourists recently awarded Lisbon as the best city break destination in Europe. This article analyses the various types of tourist experiences in the city of Lisbon. The research method is the questionnaire, aimed at investigating the choices of tourists in the area of mobility, their perception of the quality of life and their level of appreciation of neighbourhoods, landmarks and infrastructures. There is an obvious link between the quality of life and the quality of the tourist experience, but it is difficult to measure it. Through this questionnaire, we hope to have made a small contribution to the understanding of the perceptive sphere of the individual and his choices in terms of behaviour, which is an essential element of any strategy for tourism marketing.

Keywords: Lisbon, mobility, quality of life, perception, tourism, hospitality

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Authors: Selim M. Khan

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Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

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Authors: Hasik Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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Nowadays, automatic fare collection (AFC) system is widely used in many countries. However, smart card data from many of cities does not contain alighting information which is necessary to build OD matrices. Therefore, in order to utilize smart card data, destinations of passengers should be estimated. In this paper, kernel density estimation was used to forecast probabilities of alighting stations of bus passengers and applied to smart card data in Seoul, Korea which contains boarding and alighting information. This method was also validated with actual data. In some cases, stochastic method was more accurate than deterministic method. Therefore, it is sufficiently accurate to be used to build OD matrices.

Keywords: destination estimation, Kernel density estimation, smart card data, validation

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Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Lucio F.M. Adorno, Mary L. G. S. Senna

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Since it recognized the importance of planning sustainable tourism, which has been discussed effective methods of monitoring tourist. In this sense, the indicators, can transmit a set of information about complex processes, events or trends, showing up as an important monitoring tool and aid in the environmental assessment, helping to identify the progress of it and to chart future actions, contributing, so for decision making. The World Tourism Organization - WTO recognizes the importance of indicators to appraise the tourism activity in the point of view of sustainability, launching in 1995 eleven Keys Indicators of Sustainable Tourism to assist in the monitoring of tourist destinations. So we propose a case study to examine the applicability or otherwise of a monitoring methodology and aid in the understanding of tourism sustainability, analyzing the effectiveness of local indicators on the approach defined by the WTO. The study was applied to the Lagoa da Confusão City, in the state of Tocantins - North Brazil. The case study was carried out in 2006/2007, with the guiding deductive method. The indicators were measured by specific methodologies adapted to the study site, so that could generate quantitative results which could be analyzed at the proposed scale WTO (0 to 10 points). Applied indicators: Attractive Protection – AP (level of a natural and cultural attractive protection), Sociocultural Impact–SI (level of socio-cultural impacts), Waste Management - WM (level of management of solid waste generated), Planning Process-PP (trip planning level) Tourist Satisfaction-TS (satisfaction of the tourist experience), Community Satisfaction-CS (satisfaction of the local community with the development of local tourism) and Tourism Contribution to the Local Economy-TCLE (tourist level of contribution to the local economy). The city of Lagoa da Confusão was presented as an important object of study for the methodology in question, as offered condition to analyze the indicators and the complexities that arose during the research. The data collected can help discussions on the sustainability of tourism in the destination. The indicators TS, CS, WM , PP and AP appeared as satisfactory as allowed the measurement "translating" the reality under study, unlike TCLE and the SI indicators that were not seen as reliable and clear and should be reviewed and discussed for an adaptation and replication of the same. The application and study of various indicators of sustainable tourism, give better able to analyze the local tourism situation than monitor only one of the indicators, it does not demonstrate all collected data, which could result in a superficial analysis of the tourist destination.

Keywords: indicators, Lagoa da Confusão, Tocantins, Brazil, monitoring, sustainability

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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Authors: Ariadna Gassiot, Raquel Camprubi, Lluis Coromina

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Creative tourism involves the participation of tourists in the co-creation of their own experiences in a tourism destination. Consequently, creative tourists move from a passive behavior to an active behavior, and tourism destinations address this type of tourism by changing the scenario and making tourists learn and participate while they travel instead of merely offering tourism products and services to them. In creative tourism experiences, tourists are in close contact with locals and their culture. In destinations where culture (i.e. food, heritage, etc.) is the basis of their offer, such as Girona, Spain, tourism stakeholders must especially consider, analyze, and further foster the co-creation of authentic tourism experiences. They should focus on discovering more about these experiences, their main attributes, visitors’ opinions, etc. Creative tourists do not only participate while they travel around the world, but they also have and active post-travel behavior. They feel free to write about tourism experiences in different channels. User-generated content becomes crucial for any tourism destination when analyzing the market, making decisions, planning strategies, and when addressing issues, such as their reputation and performance. Sentiment analysis is a methodology used to automatically analyze semantic relationships and meanings in texts, so it is a way to extract tourists’ emotions and feelings. Tourists normally express their views and opinions regarding tourism products and services. They may express positive, neutral or negative feelings towards these products or services. For example, they may express anger, love, hate, sadness or joy towards tourism services and products. They may also express feelings through verbs, nouns, adverbs, adjectives, among others. Sentiment analysis may help tourism professionals in a range of areas, from marketing to customer service. For example, sentiment analysis allows tourism stakeholders to forecast tourism expenditure and tourist arrivals, or to analyze tourists’ profile. While there is an increasing presence of creativity in tourists’ experiences, there is also an increasing need to explore tourists’ expressions about these experiences. There is a need to know how they feel about participating in specific tourism activities. Thus, the main objective of this study is to analyze the meanings, emotions and feelings that tourists express about their creative experiences in Girona, Spain. To do so, sentiment analysis methodology is used. Results show the diversity of tourists who actively participate in tourism in Girona. Their opinions refer both to tangible aspects (e.g. food, museums, etc.) and to intangible aspects (e.g. friendliness, nightlife, etc.) of tourism experiences. Tourists express love, likeliness and other sentiments towards tourism products and services in Girona. This study can help tourism stakeholders in understanding tourists’ experiences and feelings. Consequently, they can offer more customized products and services and they can efficiently make them participate in the co-creation of their own tourism experiences.

Keywords: creative tourism, sentiment analysis, text mining, user-generated content

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Jennifer Chen-Hua Min

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The concept of self-efficacy refers to people’s beliefs in their ability to perform certain behaviors and cope with environmental demands. As such, self-efficacy plays a key role in linking ability to performance. Therefore, this study examines the relationships of self-efficacy, emotional intelligence (EI), and well-being among tour guides, who act as intermediaries between tourists and an unfamiliar environment and significantly influence tourists’ impressions of a destination. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is used to identify the relationships between these factors. The results found that self-efficacy is positively associated with EI and well-being, and a positive link was seen between EI and well-being. This study has practical implications, as the results can facilitate the development of interventions for enhancing tour guides’ EI and self-efficacy competencies, which will benefit them in terms of both enhanced achievements and improved psychological happiness and well-being.

Keywords: self-efficacy, tour guides, tourism, emotional intelligence (EI)

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Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, cone penetrating test, general regression neural network, soil modulus of elasticity

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Authors: Gunnar Oskarsson, Irena Georgsdottir

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Tourism has been growing incredibly fast during the past years, including the cruise industry, which is gaining increasing popularity among various groups of travelers. It is a challenging task for companies serving cruise ship passengers with local products and services at the point of destination to reach them in due time with information about their offerings, as well learning how to adapt their offerings and messages to the type of customers arriving on each particular occasion. Although some research has been conducted in this sphere, there is still limited knowledge about many specifics within this sector of the tourist industry. The objective of this research is to examine one of these, with the main goal of studying the segmentation of cruise passengers and to learn about marketing practices directed towards them. A qualitative research method, based on in-depth interviews, was used, as this provides an opportunity to gain insight into the participants’ perspectives. Interviews were conducted with 10 respondents from different companies in the tourist industry in Iceland, who interact with cruise passengers on a regular basis in their work environment. The main objective was to gain an understanding of what distinguishes different customer groups, or segments, in this industry, and of the marketing approaches directed towards them. The main findings reveal that participants note the strongest difference between cruise passengers of different nationalities, passengers coming on different ships (size and type), and passengers arriving at different times of the year. A drastic difference was noticed between nationalities in four main segments, American, British, Other European, and Asian customers, although some of these segments could be divided into even further sub-segments. Other important differencing factors were size and type of ships, quality or number of stars on the ship, and travelling time of the year. Companies serving cruise ship passengers, as well as the customers themselves, could benefit if the offerings of services were designed specifically for particular segments within the industry. Concerning marketing towards cruise passengers, the results indicate that it is carried out almost exclusively through the Internet using; a reliable website and, search engine optimization. Marketing is also by word-of-mouth. This research can assist practitioners by offering a deeper understanding of the approaches that may be effective in marketing local products and services to cruise ship passengers, based on their segmentation and by identifying effective ways to reach them. The research, furthermore, provides a valuable contribution to marketing knowledge for the benefit of an increasingly important market segment in a fast growing tourist industry.

Keywords: capabilities, global integration, internationalisation, SMEs

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Authors: Bit-Na Kwon, Dong-Hyun Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In wireless communication, space-time block code (STBC), cyclic delay diversity (CDD) and space-time cyclic delay diversity (STCDD) are used as the spatial diversity schemes and have been widely studied for the reliable communication. If these schemes are used, the communication system can obtain the improved performance. However, the quality of the system is degraded when the distance between a source and a destination is distant in wireless communication system. In this paper, the cooperative transmission scheme using two sources is proposed and improves the performance of the wireless communication system.

Keywords: OFDM, Cooperative communication, CDD, STBC, STCDD

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Authors: Khadija Raissi, Bechir Ben Gouissem

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In this paper, we perform the investigation of some routing protocols in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network (VANET) context. Indeed, we study the efficiency of protocols like Dynamic Source Routing (DSR), Ad hoc On-demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV), Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), Optimized Link State Routing convention (OLSR) and Vehicular Multi-hop algorithm for Stable Clustering (VMASC) in terms of packet delivery ratio (PDR) and throughput. The performance evaluation and comparison between the studied protocols shows that the VMASC is the best protocols regarding fast data transmission and link stability in VANETs. The validation of all results is done by the NS3 simulator.

Keywords: VANET, smart city, AODV, OLSR, DSR, OLSR, VMASC, routing protocols, NS3

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Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Mark Kwaku Mensah Obeng

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In the late 1990s and early 2000s, nationals of sub-Saharan Africa who had initially settled in the Middle East and other parts of south east Asia moved to Guangzhou in response to the 1997/8 Asian financial crisis in numbers never witnessed. They were later joined by many more as the Chinese economy improved and as the economic relationship between China and Africa improved. This paper tells the story of identifiable sets of Ghanaians in Guangzhou, China in the 21st century. It details out their respective characteristics and their activities in China, their migratory trajectories and the motivations for travelling to China. Also analyzed is how they are coping with life in the unknown destination. It finally attempt predicting the future of the Ghanaian community in China in terms of their level of community participation and integration.

Keywords: Africa in China, Ghana, motivation, Guangzhou

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Authors: Mu-Yen Chen, Min-Hsuan Fan, Chia-Chen Chen, Siang-Yu Jhong

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In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate, affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore, scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect, and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation. The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Taguchi method, real estate valuation model, investors

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Bitewulign Mekonnen

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Context: This scientific paper focuses on the use of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to determine glucose concentration in aqueous solutions accurately and rapidly. The study compares six different machine learning methods for predicting glucose concentration and also explores the development of a deep learning model for classifying NIR spectra. The objective is to optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction. This research is important because it provides a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating aqueous glucose concentrations. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to compare and evaluate different machine-learning methods for predicting glucose concentration from NIR spectra. Additionally, the study aims to develop and assess a deep-learning model for classifying NIR spectra. Methodology: The research methodology involves the use of machine learning and deep learning techniques. Six machine learning regression models, including support vector machine regression, partial least squares regression, extra tree regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting, and principal component analysis-neural network, are employed to predict glucose concentration. The NIR spectra data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the process is repeated ten times to increase generalization ability. In addition, a convolutional neural network is developed for classifying NIR spectra. Findings: The study reveals that the SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit excellent performance in predicting glucose concentration, with correlation coefficients (R) > 0.99 and determination coefficients (R²)> 0.985. The deep learning model achieves high macro-averaging scores for precision, recall, and F1-measure. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning and deep learning methods in optimizing the detection model and improving glucose prediction accuracy. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to the field by providing a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating glucose concentrations from NIR spectra. It also explores the use of deep learning for the classification of indistinguishable NIR spectra. The findings highlight the potential of machine learning and deep learning in enhancing the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The NIR spectra and corresponding references for glucose concentration are measured in increments of 20 mg/dl. The data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the models are evaluated using regression analysis and classification metrics. The performance of each model is assessed based on correlation coefficients, determination coefficients, precision, recall, and F1-measure. Question Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether machine learning and deep learning methods can optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction from NIR spectra. Conclusion: The research demonstrates that machine learning and deep learning methods can effectively predict glucose concentration from NIR spectra. The SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit superior performance, while the deep learning model achieves high classification scores. These findings suggest that machine learning and deep learning techniques can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Further research is needed to explore their clinical utility in analyzing complex matrices, such as blood glucose levels.

Keywords: machine learning, signal processing, near-infrared spectroscopy, support vector machine, neural network

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Authors: Mia Françoise

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This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Temmuz Gönç Şavran

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Migration is a multidimensional and health-related concept that has important consequences for both migrants and the host society. Due to past conflicts and poor living conditions that lead to migration, the dangerous and difficult journey, and the problems they face upon arrival in the destination country, migrants are at higher risk for poor health. Health is a human right, and all societies and communities, including migrant groups, must receive adequate health care. In addition, the health of migrants must be improved to protect the health of the host society and ensure social integration. The main determinants of health are employment, income, education, good housing, and adequate nutrition. It can be said that migrants are among the most vulnerable groups in society in these respects, and migrant health is negatively affected by this situation. Rigid immigration policies or financial constraints in destination countries, the complexity and bureaucracy of health systems, the low health literacy of migrant groups, and the inadequate provision of translation services in health facilities are among the other main factors affecting migrant health. Migrants are also at risk of stigma, exclusion, detection, and deportation when seeking medical care. Based on data from a qualitative study with a descriptive case study design, this paper aims to highlight and sociologically assess the health-related problems of international migrants in Eskisehir, Turkey. The sample consists of 30 international migrants living in Eskisehir, two-thirds of whom are from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Those who are citizens of the Republic of Turkey are excluded from the study; otherwise, the legal status of the participants is not considered in the selection of the sample. This makes it possible to distinguish the different needs and problems of subgroups and to consider migrant health as a comprehensive concept. The research is supported by Anadolu University in Eskisehir, and data will be collected through semi-structured interviews between November 2022 and February 2023. With holistic sociology of health approach, this study considers migrant health as a comprehensive sociological concept. It aims to reveal the health-related resources and needs of the international migrant groups living in the center of Eskisehir, the problems they encounter in meeting these needs, and the strategies they use to solve these problems. The results are expected to show that the health of migrants is not only influenced by legislation but is shaped by many processes, from housing conditions to cultural habits. It is expected that the results will also raise awareness of discrimination, exclusion, marginalization, and hate speech in migrants’ access to health services.

Keywords: migrant health, sociology of health, sociology of migration, Turkey, refugees

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Yeong-Seop Ahn, Young-Min Ko, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In order to achieve high data rate and increase the spectral efficiency, multiple input multiple output (MIMO) system has been proposed. However, multiple antennas are limited by size and cost. Therefore, recently developed cooperative diversity scheme, which profits the transmit diversity only with the existing hardware by constituting a virtual antenna array, can be a solution. However, most of the introduced cooperative techniques have a common fault of decreased transmission rate because the destination should receive the decodable compositions of symbols from the source and the relay. In this paper, we propose a cooperative cyclic delay diversity (CDD) scheme that uses hierarchical modulation. This scheme is free from the rate loss and allows seamless cooperative communication.

Keywords: MIMO, cooperative communication, CDD, hierarchical modulation

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Authors: Tobias Strübing, Fatemeh Ziaeetabar

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Humans usually manipulate objects with their hands. To represent these actions in a simple and understandable way, we need to use a semantic framework. For this purpose, the Semantic Event Chain (SEC) method has already been presented which is done by consideration of touching and non-touching relations between manipulated objects in a scene. This method was improved by a computational model, the so-called enriched Semantic Event Chain (eSEC), which incorporates the information of static (e.g. top, bottom) and dynamic spatial relations (e.g. moving apart, getting closer) between objects in an action scene. This leads to a better action prediction as well as the ability to distinguish between more actions. Each eSEC manipulation descriptor is a huge matrix with thirty rows and a massive set of the spatial relations between each pair of manipulated objects. The current eSEC framework has so far only been used in the category of manipulation actions, which eventually involve two hands. Here, we would like to extend this approach to a whole body action descriptor and make a conjoint activity representation structure. For this purpose, we need to do a statistical analysis to modify the current eSEC by summarizing while preserving its features, and introduce a new version called Enhanced eSEC or (e2SEC). This summarization can be done from two points of the view: 1) reducing the number of rows in an eSEC matrix, 2) shrinking the set of possible semantic spatial relations. To achieve these, we computed the importance of each matrix row in an statistical way, to see if it is possible to remove a particular one while all manipulations are still distinguishable from each other. On the other hand, we examined which semantic spatial relations can be merged without compromising the unity of the predefined manipulation actions. Therefore by performing the above analyses, we made the new e2SEC framework which has 20% fewer rows, 16.7% less static spatial and 11.1% less dynamic spatial relations. This simplification, while preserving the salient features of a semantic structure in representing actions, has a tremendous impact on the recognition and prediction of complex actions, as well as the interactions between humans and robots. It also creates a comprehensive platform to integrate with the body limbs descriptors and dramatically increases system performance, especially in complex real time applications such as human-robot interaction prediction.

Keywords: enriched semantic event chain, semantic action representation, spatial relations, statistical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Emre Ozaslan, Bulent Acar, Mehmet Ali Guler

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Unidirectional composites are very popular structural materials used in aerospace, marine, energy and automotive industries thanks to their superior material properties. However, the mechanical behavior of composite materials is more complicated than isotropic materials because of their anisotropic nature. Also, a stress concentration availability on the structure, like a hole, makes the problem further complicated. Therefore, enormous number of tests require to understand the mechanical behavior and strength of composites which contain stress concentration. Accurate finite element analysis and analytical models enable to understand mechanical behavior and predict the strength of composites without enormous number of tests which cost serious time and money. In this study, unidirectional Carbon/Epoxy composite specimens with central circular hole were investigated in terms of stress concentration factor and strength prediction. The composite specimens which had different specimen wide (W) to hole diameter (D) ratio were tested to investigate the effect of hole size on the stress concentration and strength. Also, specimens which had same specimen wide to hole diameter ratio, but varied sizes were tested to investigate the size effect. Finite element analysis was performed to determine stress concentration factor for all specimen configurations. For quasi-isotropic laminate, it was found that the stress concentration factor increased approximately %15 with decreasing of W/D ratio from 6 to 3. Point stress criteria (PSC), inherent flaw method and progressive failure analysis were compared in terms of predicting the strength of specimens. All methods could predict the strength of specimens with maximum %8 error. PSC was better than other methods for high values of W/D ratio, however, inherent flaw method was successful for low values of W/D. Also, it is seen that increasing by 4 times of the W/D ratio rises the failure strength of composite specimen as %62.4. For constant W/D ratio specimens, all the strength prediction methods were more successful for smaller size specimens than larger ones. Increasing the specimen width and hole diameter together by 2 times reduces the specimen failure strength as %13.2.

Keywords: failure, strength, stress concentration, unidirectional composites

Procedia PDF Downloads 155