Search results for: time series representation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20850

Search results for: time series representation

14520 Mobile Communication Technologies, Romantic Attachment and Relationship Quality: An Exploration of Partner Attunement

Authors: Jodie Bradnam, Mark Edwards, Bruce Watt

Abstract:

Mobile technologies have emerged as tools to create and sustain social and romantic relationships. The integration of technologies in close relationships has been of particular research interest with findings supporting the positive role of mobile phones in nurturing feelings of closeness and connection. More recently, the use of text messaging to manage conflict has become a focus of research attention. Four hundred and eleven adults in committed romantic relationships completed a series of questionnaires measuring attachment orientation, relationship quality, texting frequencies, attitudes, and response expectations. Attachment orientation, relationship length, texting for connection and disconnection were significant predictors of relationship quality, specifically relationship intimacy. Text frequency varied as a function of attachment orientation, with high attachment anxiety associated with high texting frequencies and with low relationship quality. Sending text messages of love and support was related to higher intimacy and relationship satisfaction scores, while sending critical or impersonal texts was associated with significantly lower intimacy and relationship satisfaction scores. The use of texting to manage relational conflict was a stronger negative predictor of relationship satisfaction than was the use of texting to express love and affection. Consistent with research on face-to-face communication in couples, the expression of negative sentiments via text were related to lower relationship quality, and these negative sentiments had a stronger and more enduring impact on relationship quality than did the expression of positive sentiments. Attachment orientation, relationship length and relationship status emerged as variables of interest in understanding the use of mobile technologies in romantic relationships.

Keywords: attachment, destructive conflict, intimacy, mobile communication, relationship quality, relationship satisfaction, texting

Procedia PDF Downloads 390
14519 Embedded Visual Perception for Autonomous Agricultural Machines Using Lightweight Convolutional Neural Networks

Authors: René A. Sørensen, Søren Skovsen, Peter Christiansen, Henrik Karstoft

Abstract:

Autonomous agricultural machines act in stochastic surroundings and therefore, must be able to perceive the surroundings in real time. This perception can be achieved using image sensors combined with advanced machine learning, in particular Deep Learning. Deep convolutional neural networks excel in labeling and perceiving color images and since the cost of high-quality RGB-cameras is low, the hardware cost of good perception depends heavily on memory and computation power. This paper investigates the possibility of designing lightweight convolutional neural networks for semantic segmentation (pixel wise classification) with reduced hardware requirements, to allow for embedded usage in autonomous agricultural machines. Using compression techniques, a lightweight convolutional neural network is designed to perform real-time semantic segmentation on an embedded platform. The network is trained on two large datasets, ImageNet and Pascal Context, to recognize up to 400 individual classes. The 400 classes are remapped into agricultural superclasses (e.g. human, animal, sky, road, field, shelterbelt and obstacle) and the ability to provide accurate real-time perception of agricultural surroundings is studied. The network is applied to the case of autonomous grass mowing using the NVIDIA Tegra X1 embedded platform. Feeding case-specific images to the network results in a fully segmented map of the superclasses in the image. As the network is still being designed and optimized, only a qualitative analysis of the method is complete at the abstract submission deadline. Proceeding this deadline, the finalized design is quantitatively evaluated on 20 annotated grass mowing images. Lightweight convolutional neural networks for semantic segmentation can be implemented on an embedded platform and show competitive performance with regards to accuracy and speed. It is feasible to provide cost-efficient perceptive capabilities related to semantic segmentation for autonomous agricultural machines.

Keywords: autonomous agricultural machines, deep learning, safety, visual perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 401
14518 Development and Characterization of Wheat Bread with Lupin Flour

Authors: Paula M. R. Correia, Marta Gonzaga, Luis M. Batista, Luísa Beirão-Costa, Raquel F. P. Guiné

Abstract:

The purpose of the present work was to develop an innovative food product with good textural and sensorial characteristics. The product, a new type of bread, was prepared with wheat (90%) and lupin (10%) flours, without the addition of any conservatives. Several experiences were also done to find the most appropriate proportion of lupin flour. The optimized product was characterized considering the rheological, physical-chemical and sensorial properties. The water absorption of wheat flour with 10% of lupin was higher than that of the normal wheat flours, and Wheat Ceres flour presented the lower value, with lower dough development time and high stability time. The breads presented low moisture but a considerable water activity. The density of bread decreased with the introduction of lupin flour. The breads were quite white, and during storage the colour parameters decreased. The lupin flour clearly increased the number of alveolus, but the total area increased significantly just for the Wheat Cerealis bread. The addition of lupin flour increased the hardness and chewiness of breads, but the elasticity did not vary significantly. Lupin bread was sensorially similar to wheat bread produced with WCerealis flour, and the main differences are the crust rugosity, colour and alveolus characteristics.

Keywords: Lupin flour, physical-chemical properties, sensorial analysis, wheat flour

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14517 Surface and Bulk Magnetization Behavior of Isolated Ferromagnetic NiFe Nanowires

Authors: Musaab Salman Sultan

Abstract:

The surface and bulk magnetization behavior of template released isolated ferromagnetic Ni60Fe40 nanowires of relatively thick diameters (~200 nm), deposited from a dilute suspension onto pre-patterned insulating chips have been investigated experimentally, using a highly sensitive Magneto-Optical Ker Effect (MOKE) magnetometry and Magneto-Resistance (MR) measurements, respectively. The MR data were consistent with the theoretical predictions of the anisotropic magneto-resistance (AMR) effect. The MR measurements, in all the angles of investigations, showed large features and a series of nonmonotonic "continuous small features" in the resistance profiles. The extracted switching fields from these features and from MOKE loops were compared with each other and with the switching fields reported in the literature that adopted the same analytical techniques on the similar compositions and dimensions of nanowires. A large difference between MOKE and MR measurments was noticed. The disparate between MOKE and MR results is attributed to the variance in the micro-magnetic structure of the surface and the bulk of such ferromagnetic nanowires. This result was ascertained using micro-magnetic simulations on an individual: cylindrical and rectangular cross sections NiFe nanowires, with the same diameter/thickness of the experimental wires, using the Object Oriented Micro-magnetic Framework (OOMMF) package where the simulated loops showed different switching events, indicating that such wires have different magnetic states in the reversal process and the micro-magnetic spin structures during switching behavior was complicated. These results further supported the difference between surface and bulk magnetization behavior in these nanowires. This work suggests that a combination of MOKE and MR measurements is required to fully understand the magnetization behavior of such relatively thick isolated cylindrical ferromagnetic nanowires.

Keywords: MOKE magnetometry, MR measurements, OOMMF package, micromagnetic simulations, ferromagnetic nanowires, surface magnetic properties

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14516 The Effect of Supercritical Fluid on the Extraction Efficiency of Heavy Metal from Soil

Authors: Haifa El-Sadi, Maria Elektorowicz, Reed Rushing, Ammar Badawieh, Asif Chaudry

Abstract:

Clay soils have particular properties that affect the assessment and remediation of contaminated sites. In clay soils, electro-kinetic transport of heavy metals has been carried out. The transport of these metals is predicated on maintaining a low pH throughout the cell, which, in turn, keeps the metals in the pore water phase where they are accessible to electro-kinetic transport. Supercritical fluid extraction and acid digestion were used for the analysis of heavy metals concentrations after the completion of electro-kinetic experimentation. Supercritical fluid (carbon dioxide) extraction is a new technique used to extract the heavy metal (lead, nickel, calcium and potassium) from clayey soil. The comparison between supercritical extraction and acid digestion of different metals was carried out. Supercritical fluid extraction, using ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) as a modifier, proved to be efficient and a safer technique than acid digestion technique in extracting metals from clayey soil. Mixing time of soil with EDTA before extracting heavy metals from clayey soil was investigated. The optimum and most practical shaking time for the extraction of lead, nickel, calcium and potassium was two hours.

Keywords: clay soil, heavy metals, supercritical fluid extraction, acid digestion

Procedia PDF Downloads 474
14515 Management of Acute Biliary Pathology at Gozo General Hospital

Authors: Kristian Bugeja, Upeshala A. Jayawardena, Clarissa Fenech, Mark Zammit Vincenti

Abstract:

Introduction: Biliary colic, acute cholecystitis, and gallstone pancreatitis are some of the most common surgical presentations at Gozo General Hospital (GGH). National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines advise that suitable patients with acute biliary problems should be offered a laparoscopic cholecystectomy within one week of diagnosis. There has traditionally been difficulty in achieving this mainly due to the reluctance of some surgeons to operate in the acute setting, limited, timely access to MRCP and ERCP, and organizational issues. Methodology: A retrospective study was performed involving all biliary pathology-related admissions to GGH during the two-year period of 2019 and 2020. Patients’ files and electronic case summary (ECS) were used for data collection, which included demographic data, primary diagnosis, co-morbidities, management, waiting time to surgery, length of stay, readmissions, and reason for readmissions. NICE clinical guidance 188 – Gallstone disease were used as the standard. Results: 51 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 58 years, and 35 (68.6%) were female. The main diagnoses on admission were biliary colic in 31 (60.8%), acute cholecystitis in 10 (19.6%). Others included gallstone pancreatitis in 3 (5.89%), chronic cholecystitis in 2 (3.92%), gall bladder malignancy in 4 (7.84%), and ascending cholangitis in 1 (1.97%). Management included laparoscopic cholecystectomy in 34 (66.7%); conservative in 8 (15.7%) and ERCP in 6 (11.7%). The mean waiting time for laparoscopic cholecystectomy for patients with acute cholecystitis was 74 days – range being between 3 and 146 days since the date of diagnosis. Only one patient who was diagnosed with acute cholecystitis and managed with laparoscopic cholecystectomy was done so within the 7-day time frame. Hospital re-admissions were reported in 5 patients (9.8%) due to vomiting (1), ascending cholangitis (1), and gallstone pancreatitis (3). Discussion: Guidelines were not met for patients presenting to Gozo General Hospital with acute biliary pathology. This resulted in 5 patients being re-admitted to hospital while waiting for definitive surgery. The local issues resulting in the delay to surgery need to be identified and steps are taken to facilitate the provision of urgent cholecystectomy for suitable patients.

Keywords: biliary colic, acute cholecystits, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, conservative management

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14514 Preparation of Novel Silicone/Graphene-based Nanostructured Surfaces as Fouling Release Coatings

Authors: Mohamed S. Selim, Nesreen A. Fatthallah, Shimaa A. Higazy, Zhifeng Hao, Ping Jing Mo

Abstract:

As marine fouling-release (FR) surfaces, two new superhydrophobic nanocomposite series of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) loaded with reduced graphene oxide (RGO) and graphene oxide/boehmite nanorods (GO-γ-AlOOH) nanofillers were created. The self-cleaning and antifouling capabilities were modified by controlling the nanofillers' shapes and distribution in the silicone matrix. With an average diameter of 10-20 nm and a length of 200 nm, γ-AlOOH nanorods showed a single crystallinity. RGO was made using a hydrothermal process, whereas GO-γ-AlOOH nanocomposites were made using a chemical deposition method for use as fouling-release coating materials. These nanofillers were disseminated in the silicone matrix using the solution casting method to explore the synergetic effects of graphene-based materials on the surface, mechanical, and FR characteristics. Water contact angle (WCA), scanning electron, and atomic force microscopes were used to investigate the surface's hydrophobicity and antifouling capabilities (SEM and AFM). The roughness, superhydrophobicity, and surface mechanical characteristics of coatings all increased the homogeneity of the nanocomposite dispersion. To examine the antifouling effects of the coating systems, laboratory tests were conducted for 30 days using specified bacteria.PDMS/GO-γ-AlOOH nanorod composite demonstrated superior antibacterial efficacy against several bacterial strains than PDMS/RGO nanocomposite. The high surface area and stabilizing effects of the GO-γ-AlOOH hybrid nanofillers are to blame for this. The biodegradability percentage of the PDMS/GO-γ-AlOOH nanorod composite (3 wt.%) was the lowest (1.6%), while the microbial endurability percentages for gram-positive, gram-negative, and fungi were 86.42%, 97.94%, and 85.97%, respectively. The homogeneity of the GO-γ-AlOOH (3 wt.%) dispersion, which had a WCA of 151° and a rough surface, was the most profound superhydrophobic antifouling nanostructured coating.

Keywords: superhydrophobic nanocomposite, fouling release, nanofillers, surface coating

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
14513 Empirical Investigation of Gender Differences in Information Processing Style, Tinkering, and Self-Efficacy for Robot Tele-Operation

Authors: Dilruba Showkat, Cindy Grimm

Abstract:

As robots become more ubiquitous, it is significant for us to understand how different groups of people respond to possible ways of interacting with the robot. In this study, we focused on gender differences while users were tele-operating a humanoid robot that was physically co-located with them. We investigated three factors during the human-robot interaction (1) information processing strategy (2) self-efficacy and (3) tinkering or exploratory behavior. The experimental results show that the information on how to use the robot was processed comprehensively by the female participants whereas males processed them selectively (p < 0.001). Males were more confident when using the robot than females (p = 0.0002). Males tinkered more with the robot than females (p = 0.0021). We found that tinkering was positively correlated (p = 0.0068) with task success and negatively correlated (p = 0.0032) with task completion time. Tinkering might have resulted in greater task success and lower task completion time for males. Findings from this research can be used for making design decisions for robots and open new research directions. Our results show the importance of accounting for gender differences when developing interfaces for interacting with robots and open new research directions.

Keywords: humanoid robots, tele-operation, gender differences, human-robot interaction

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14512 Massive Intrapartum Hemorrhage Following by Inner Myometrial Laceration during a Vaginal Delivery: A Rare Case Report

Authors: Bahareh Khakifirooz, Arian Shojaei, Amirhossein Hajialigol, Bahare Abdolahi

Abstract:

Laceration of the inner layer of the myometrium can cause massive bleeding during and after childbirth, which can lead to the death of the mother if it is not diagnosed in time. We studied a rare case of massive intrapartum bleeding following myometrial laceration that was diagnosed correctly, and the patient survived with in-time treatments. The patient was a 26 years-old woman who was under observation for term pregnancy and complaint of rupture of membranes (ROM) and vaginal bleeding. Following the spontaneous course of labor and without receiving oxytocin, during the normal course of labor, she had an estimated total blood loss of 750 mL bleeding, which, despite the normal fetal heart rate and with the mother's indication for cesarean section, was transferred to the operating room and underwent cesarean section. During the cesarean section, the amniotic fluid was clear; after the removal of the placenta, severe and clear bleeding was flowing from the posterior wall of the uterus, which was caused by the laceration of the inner layer of the myometrium in the posterior wall of the lower segment of the uterus. The myometrial laceration was repaired with absorbable continuous locked sutures, and hemostasis was established, then, the patient used uterotonic drugs, and after monitoring, the patient was discharged from the hospital in good condition.

Keywords: intrapartum hemorrhage, inner myometrial laceration, labor, Increased intrauterine pressure

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14511 Modified 'Perturb and Observe' with 'Incremental Conductance' Algorithm for Maximum Power Point Tracking

Authors: H. Fuad Usman, M. Rafay Khan Sial, Shahzaib Hamid

Abstract:

The trend of renewable energy resources has been amplified due to global warming and other environmental related complications in the 21st century. Recent research has very much emphasized on the generation of electrical power through renewable resources like solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc. The use of the photovoltaic cell has become very public as it is very useful for the domestic and commercial purpose overall the world. Although a single cell gives the low voltage output but connecting a number of cells in a series formed a complete module of the photovoltaic cells, it is becoming a financial investment as the use of it fetching popular. This also reduced the prices of the photovoltaic cell which gives the customers a confident of using this source for their electrical use. Photovoltaic cell gives the MPPT at single specific point of operation at a given temperature and level of solar intensity received at a given surface whereas the focal point changes over a large range depending upon the manufacturing factor, temperature conditions, intensity for insolation, instantaneous conditions for shading and aging factor for the photovoltaic cells. Two improved algorithms have been proposed in this article for the MPPT. The widely used algorithms are the ‘Incremental Conductance’ and ‘Perturb and Observe’ algorithms. To extract the maximum power from the source to the load, the duty cycle of the convertor will be effectively controlled. After assessing the previous techniques, this paper presents the improved and reformed idea of harvesting maximum power point from the photovoltaic cells. A thoroughly go through of the previous ideas has been observed before constructing the improvement in the traditional technique of MPP. Each technique has its own importance and boundaries at various weather conditions. An improved technique of implementing the use of both ‘Perturb and Observe’ and ‘Incremental Conductance’ is introduced.

Keywords: duty cycle, MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking), perturb and observe (P&O), photovoltaic module

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
14510 An Overview of Domain Models of Urban Quantitative Analysis

Authors: Mohan Li

Abstract:

Nowadays, intelligent research technology is more and more important than traditional research methods in urban research work, and this proportion will greatly increase in the next few decades. Frequently such analyzing work cannot be carried without some software engineering knowledge. And here, domain models of urban research will be necessary when applying software engineering knowledge to urban work. In many urban plan practice projects, making rational models, feeding reliable data, and providing enough computation all make indispensable assistance in producing good urban planning. During the whole work process, domain models can optimize workflow design. At present, human beings have entered the era of big data. The amount of digital data generated by cities every day will increase at an exponential rate, and new data forms are constantly emerging. How to select a suitable data set from the massive amount of data, manage and process it has become an ability that more and more planners and urban researchers need to possess. This paper summarizes and makes predictions of the emergence of technologies and technological iterations that may affect urban research in the future, discover urban problems, and implement targeted sustainable urban strategies. They are summarized into seven major domain models. They are urban and rural regional domain model, urban ecological domain model, urban industry domain model, development dynamic domain model, urban social and cultural domain model, urban traffic domain model, and urban space domain model. These seven domain models can be used to guide the construction of systematic urban research topics and help researchers organize a series of intelligent analytical tools, such as Python, R, GIS, etc. These seven models make full use of quantitative spatial analysis, machine learning, and other technologies to achieve higher efficiency and accuracy in urban research, assisting people in making reasonable decisions.

Keywords: big data, domain model, urban planning, urban quantitative analysis, machine learning, workflow design

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
14509 The Effect of Satisfaction with the Internet on Online Shopping Attitude With TAM Approach Controlled By Gender

Authors: Velly Anatasia

Abstract:

In the last few decades extensive research has been conducted into information technology (IT) adoption, testing a series of factors considered to be essential for improved diffusion. Some studies analyze IT characteristics such as usefulness, ease of use and/or security, others focus on the emotions and experiences of users and a third group attempts to determine the importance of socioeconomic user characteristics such as gender, educational level and income. The situation is similar regarding e-commerce, where the majority of studies have taken for granted the importance of including these variables when studying e-commerce adoption, as these were believed to explain or forecast who buys or who will buy on the internet. Nowadays, the internet has become a marketplace suitable for all ages and incomes and both genders and thus the prejudices linked to the advisability of selling certain products should be revised. The objective of this study is to test whether the socioeconomic characteristics of experienced e-shoppers such as gender rally moderate the effect of their perceptions of online shopping behavior. Current development of the online environment and the experience acquired by individuals from previous e-purchases can attenuate or even nullify the effect of these characteristics. The individuals analyzed are experienced e-shoppers i.e. individuals who often make purchases on the internet. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was broadened to include previous use of the internet and perceived self-efficacy. The perceptions and behavior of e-shoppers are based on their own experiences. The information obtained will be tested using questionnaires which were distributed and self-administered to respondent accustomed using internet. The causal model is estimated using structural equation modeling techniques (SEM), followed by tests of the moderating effect of socioeconomic variables on perceptions and online shopping behavior. The expected findings of this study indicated that gender moderate neither the influence of previous use of the internet nor the perceptions of e-commerce. In short, they do not condition the behavior of the experienced e-shopper.

Keywords: Internet shopping, age groups, gender, income, electronic commerce

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14508 Neighbourhood Walkability and Quality of Life: The Mediating Role of Place Adherence and Social Interaction

Authors: Michał Jaśkiewicz

Abstract:

The relation between walkability, place adherence, social relations and quality of life was explored in a Polish context. A considerable number of studies have suggested that environmental factors may influence the quality of life through indirect pathways. The list of possible psychological mediators includes social relations and identity-related variables. Based on the results of Study 1, local identity is a significant mediator in the relationship between neighbourhood walkability and quality of life. It was assumed that pedestrian-oriented neighbourhoods enable residents to interact and that these spontaneous interactions can help to strengthen a sense of local identity, thus influencing the quality of life. We, therefore, conducted further studies, testing the relationship experimentally in studies 2a and 2b. Participants were exposed to (2a) photos of walkable/non-walkable neighbourhoods or (2b) descriptions of high/low-walkable neighbourhoods. They were then asked to assess the walkability of the neighbourhoods and to evaluate their potential social relations and quality of life in these places. In both studies, social relations with neighbours turned out to be a significant mediator between walkability and quality of life. In Study 3, we implemented the measure of overlapping individual and communal identity (fusion with the neighbourhood) and willingness to collective action as mediators. Living in a walkable neighbourhood was associated with identity fusion with that neighbourhood. Participants who felt more fused expressed greater willingness to engage in collective action with other neighbours. Finally, this willingness was positively related to the quality of life in the city. In Study 4, we used commuting time (an aspect of walkability related to the time that people spend travelling to work) as the independent variable. The results showed that a shorter average daily commuting time was linked to more frequent social interactions in the neighbourhood. Individuals who assessed their social interactions as more frequent expressed a stronger city identification, which was in turn related to quality of life. To sum up, our research replicated and extended previous findings on the association between walkability and well-being measures. We introduced potential mediators of this relationship: social interactions in the neighbourhood and identity-related variables.

Keywords: walkability, quality of life, social relations, analysis of mediation

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14507 Graphic Calculator Effectiveness in Biology Teaching and Learning

Authors: Nik Azmah Nik Yusuff, Faridah Hassan Basri, Rosnidar Mansor

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to find out the effectiveness of using Graphic calculators (GC) with Calculator Based Laboratory 2 (CBL2) in teaching and learning of form four biology for these topics: Nutrition, Respiration and Dynamic Ecosystem. Sixty form four science stream students were the participants of this study. The participants were divided equally into the treatment and control groups. The treatment group used GC with CBL2 during experiments while the control group used the ordinary conventional laboratory apparatus without using GC with CBL2. Instruments in this study were a set of pre-test and post-test and a questionnaire. T-Test was used to compare the student’s biology achievement while a descriptive statistic was used to analyze the outcome of the questionnaire. The findings of this study indicated the use of GC with CBL2 in biology had significant positive effect. The highest mean was 4.43 for item stating the use of GC with CBL2 had saved collecting experiment result’s time. The second highest mean was 4.10 for item stating GC with CBL2 had saved drawing and labelling graphs. The outcome from the questionnaire also showed that GC with CBL2 were easy to use and save time. Thus, teachers should use GC with CBL2 in support of efforts by Malaysia Ministry of Education in encouraging technology-enhanced lessons.

Keywords: biology experiments, Calculator-Based Laboratory 2 (CBL2), graphic calculators, Malaysia Secondary School, teaching/learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
14506 Plotting of an Ideal Logic versus Resource Outflow Graph through Response Analysis on a Strategic Management Case Study Based Questionnaire

Authors: Vinay A. Sharma, Shiva Prasad H. C.

Abstract:

The initial stages of any project are often observed to be in a mixed set of conditions. Setting up the project is a tough task, but taking the initial decisions is rather not complex, as some of the critical factors are yet to be introduced into the scenario. These simple initial decisions potentially shape the timeline and subsequent events that might later be plotted on it. Proceeding towards the solution for a problem is the primary objective in the initial stages. The optimization in the solutions can come later, and hence, the resources deployed towards attaining the solution are higher than what they would have been in the optimized versions. A ‘logic’ that counters the problem is essentially the core of the desired solution. Thus, if the problem is solved, the deployment of resources has led to the required logic being attained. As the project proceeds along, the individuals working on the project face fresh challenges as a team and are better accustomed to their surroundings. The developed, optimized solutions are then considered for implementation, as the individuals are now experienced, and know better of the consequences and causes of possible failure, and thus integrate the adequate tolerances wherever required. Furthermore, as the team graduates in terms of strength, acquires prodigious knowledge, and begins its efficient transfer, the individuals in charge of the project along with the managers focus more on the optimized solutions rather than the traditional ones to minimize the required resources. Hence, as time progresses, the authorities prioritize attainment of the required logic, at a lower amount of dedicated resources. For empirical analysis of the stated theory, leaders and key figures in organizations are surveyed for their ideas on appropriate logic required for tackling a problem. Key-pointers spotted in successfully implemented solutions are noted from the analysis of the responses and a metric for measuring logic is developed. A graph is plotted with the quantifiable logic on the Y-axis, and the dedicated resources for the solutions to various problems on the X-axis. The dedicated resources are plotted over time, and hence the X-axis is also a measure of time. In the initial stages of the project, the graph is rather linear, as the required logic will be attained, but the consumed resources are also high. With time, the authorities begin focusing on optimized solutions, since the logic attained through them is higher, but the resources deployed are comparatively lower. Hence, the difference between consecutive plotted ‘resources’ reduces and as a result, the slope of the graph gradually increases. On an overview, the graph takes a parabolic shape (beginning on the origin), as with each resource investment, ideally, the difference keeps on decreasing, and the logic attained through the solution keeps increasing. Even if the resource investment is higher, the managers and authorities, ideally make sure that the investment is being made on a proportionally high logic for a larger problem, that is, ideally the slope of the graph increases with the plotting of each point.

Keywords: decision-making, leadership, logic, strategic management

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14505 Monte Carlo and Biophysics Analysis in a Criminal Trial

Authors: Luca Indovina, Carmela Coppola, Carlo Altucci, Riccardo Barberi, Rocco Romano

Abstract:

In this paper a real court case, held in Italy at the Court of Nola, in which a correct physical description, conducted with both a Monte Carlo and biophysical analysis, would have been sufficient to arrive at conclusions confirmed by documentary evidence, is considered. This will be an example of how forensic physics can be useful in confirming documentary evidence in order to reach hardly questionable conclusions. This was a libel trial in which the defendant, Mr. DS (Defendant for Slander), had falsely accused one of his neighbors, Mr. OP (Offended Person), of having caused him some damages. The damages would have been caused by an external plaster piece that would have detached from the neighbor’s property and would have hit Mr DS while he was in his garden, much more than a meter far away from the facade of the building from which the plaster piece would have detached. In the trial, Mr. DS claimed to have suffered a scratch on his forehead, but he never showed the plaster that had hit him, nor was able to tell from where the plaster would have arrived. Furthermore, Mr. DS presented a medical certificate with a diagnosis of contusion of the cerebral cortex. On the contrary, the images of Mr. OP’s security cameras do not show any movement in the garden of Mr. DS in a long interval of time (about 2 hours) around the time of the alleged accident, nor do they show any people entering or coming out from the house of Mr. DS in the same interval of time. Biophysical analysis shows that both the diagnosis of the medical certificate and the wound declared by the defendant, already in conflict with each other, are not compatible with the fall of external plaster pieces too small to be found. The wind was at a level 1 of the Beaufort scale, that is, unable to raise even dust (level 4 of the Beaufort scale). Therefore, the motion of the plaster pieces can be described as a projectile motion, whereas collisions with the building cornice can be treated using Newtons law of coefficients of restitution. Numerous numerical Monte Carlo simulations show that the pieces of plaster would not have been able to reach even the garden of Mr. DS, let alone a distance over 1.30 meters. Results agree with the documentary evidence (images of Mr. OP’s security cameras) that Mr. DS could not have been hit by plaster pieces coming from Mr. OP’s property.

Keywords: biophysics analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, Newton’s law of restitution, projectile motion

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14504 Investigation of the Factors Influencing the Construction Planning Process Using Participant Observation Method

Authors: Ashokkumar Subbiah

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This study investigates the impact of factors that influenced the success of construction planning for a major construction project in Qatar. An approach of participant observation is adopted which is informed by the principles of ethnography: one that reports the participants’ view of their world rather than imposing an artificial theoretical framework upon it. As participant observant, key factors were observed and identified that had an impact on the management and execution of the construction planning. It is found that a ‘shadow culture’ exists between the project participants which, it is argued, is only observable from the perspective of an embedded participant observer. The shadow culture acts to enable the management of the planning process, and its efficacy relates to the ‘quality’ of human inter-relationships amongst immediate stakeholders. Whilst this study uses the concept of shadow culture, it is treated as both a methodological stance and one of the findings of this research in the context of the major construction project in Qatar. The concept of shadow culture is not imposed upon the findings, but instead is used as a research tool: respondents report their own worldview and this is reported from the view of a participant observant in a manner that is understandable and useful to those who are not part of the construction project. The findings of this study identify similar factors influencing the planning process of the Qatar project, but the shadow culture predominantly influences these factors towards the failure of planning process. The research concludes by questioning the assumption that construction planning is a mechanistic process that has to be conducted solely by the planning team. Instead, it is a highly social phenomenon in which the seemingly mechanistic process is made workable by the quality of relationships that exist in the project. Drawing on this the final section provides a series of recommendations that may be helpful in enhancing the efficacy of project planning; these include better training/education at the pre-construction phase; recognition of the importance of shadow processes at management levels, and better appreciation of the impact of contract type and chosen procurement route.

Keywords: construction planning, participant observation, project participants, shadow culture

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14503 Comparative Assessment of Geocell and Geogrid Reinforcement for Flexible Pavement: Numerical Parametric Study

Authors: Anjana R. Menon, Anjana Bhasi

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Development of highways and railways play crucial role in a nation’s economic growth. While rigid concrete pavements are durable with high load bearing characteristics, growing economies mostly rely on flexible pavements which are easier in construction and more economical. The strength of flexible pavement is based on the strength of subgrade and load distribution characteristics of intermediate granular layers. In this scenario, to simultaneously meet economy and strength criteria, it is imperative to strengthen and stabilize the load transferring layers, namely subbase and base. Geosynthetic reinforcement in planar and cellular forms have been proven effective in improving soil stiffness and providing a stable load transfer platform. Studies have proven the relative superiority of cellular form-geocells over planar geosynthetic forms like geogrid, owing to the additional confinement of infill material and pocket effect arising from vertical deformation. Hence, the present study investigates the efficiency of geocells over single/multiple layer geogrid reinforcements by a series of three-dimensional model analyses of a flexible pavement section under a standard repetitive wheel load. The stress transfer mechanism and deformation profiles under various reinforcement configurations are also studied. Geocell reinforcement is observed to take up a higher proportion of stress caused by the traffic loads compared to single and double-layer geogrid reinforcements. The efficiency of single geogrid reinforcement reduces with an increase in embedment depth. The contribution of lower geogrid is insignificant in the case of the double-geogrid reinforced system.

Keywords: Geocell, Geogrid, Flexible Pavement, Repetitive Wheel Load, Numerical Analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
14502 Study of Synergetic Effect by Combining Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) Plasma and Photocatalysis for Abatement of Pollutants in Air Mixture System: Influence of Some Operating Conditions and Identification of Byproducts

Authors: Wala Abou Saoud, Aymen Amine Assadi, Monia Guiza, Abdelkrim Bouzaza, Wael Aboussaoud, Abdelmottaleb Ouederni, Dominique Wolbert

Abstract:

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) constitute one of the most important families of chemicals involved in atmospheric pollution, causing damage to the environment and human health, and need, consequently, to be eliminated. Among the promising technologies, dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma - photocatalysis coupling reveals very interesting prospects in terms of process synergy of compounds mineralization’s, with low energy consumption. In this study, the removal of organic compounds such butyraldehyde (BUTY) and dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) (exhaust gasses from animal quartering centers.) in air mixture using DBD plasma coupled with photocatalysis was tested, in order to determine whether or not synergy effect was present. The removal efficiency of these pollutants, a selectivity of CO₂ and CO, and byproducts formation such as ozone formation were investigated in order to evaluate the performance of the combined process. For this purpose, a series of experiments were carried out in a continuous reactor. Many operating parameters were also investigated such as the specific energy of discharge, the inlet concentration of pollutant and the flowrate. It appears from this study that, the performance of the process has enhanced and a synergetic effect is observed. In fact, we note an enhancement of 10 % on removal efficiency. It is interesting to note that the combined system leads to better CO₂ selectivity than for plasma. Consequently, intermediates by-products have been reduced due to various other species (O•, N, OH•, O₂•-, O₃, NO₂, NOx, etc.). Additionally, the behavior of combining DBD plasma and photocatalysis has shown that the ozone can be easily also decomposed in presence of photocatalyst.

Keywords: combined process, DBD plasma, photocatalysis, pilot scale, synergetic effect, VOCs

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
14501 Conceptual Study on 4PL and Activities in Turkey

Authors: Berna Kalkan, Kenan Aydin

Abstract:

Companies give importance customer satisfaction to compete the developing and changing market. This is possible when customer reaches the right product, right quality, place, time and cost. In this regard, the extension of logistics services has played active role on formation and development of the different logistics services concept. The concept of logistics services has played important role involved in the healing of economic indicators today. Companies can use logistics providers, thus have competitive advantage and low cost, reducing time, tobe flexibility. In recent years, Fourth Party Logistics (4PL) has emerged as a new concept that includes relationship between suppliers and firms in outsourcing. 4PL provider is an integrator that offers comprehensive supply chain solutions with the technology, resources and capabilities that it possesses. Also, 4PL has attracted as a popular research topic attention in the recent past. In this paper, logistics outsourcing and 4PL concepts are analyzed and a literature review on 4PL activities is given. Also, the previous studies in literature and the approaches that are used in previous studies in literature is presented by analysing on 4PL activities. In this context, a field study will be applied to 4PL providers and service buyer in Turkey. If necessary, results related to this study will be shared in scientific areas.

Keywords: fourth party logistics, literature review, outsourcing, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
14500 Analysis of Brain Specific Creatine Kinase of Postmortem Cerebrospinal Fluid and Serum in Blunt Head Trauma Cases

Authors: Rika Susanti, Eryati Darwin, Dedi Afandi, Yanwirasti, Syahruddin Said, Noverika Windasari, Zelly Dia Rofinda

Abstract:

Introduction: Blunt head trauma is one of the leading causes of death associated with murders and other deaths involved in criminal acts. Creatine kinase (CKBB) levels have been used as a biomarker for blunt head trauma. Therefore, it is now used as an alternative to an autopsy. The aim of this study is to investigate CKBB levels in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and post-mortem serum in order to deduce the cause and time of death. Method: This investigation was conducted through post-test–only group design involving deaths caused by blunt head trauma, which was compared to deaths caused by ketamine poisoning. Results: There were eight treatment groups, each consisting of six adult rats (Rattus norvegicus) Sprague-Dawley strain. Examinations were done at 0 hours, 1 hour, 2 hours, and 3 hours post-mortem, which followed by brain tissue observation. Data were then analyzed statistically with a repeated-measures general linear model. Conclusion: There were increases in the level of CKBB in CSF and postmortem serum in both blunt head trauma and ketamine poisoning treatment groups. However, there were no significant differences between these two groups.

Keywords: blunt head trauma, CKBB, the cause of death, estimated time of death

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
14499 Flow Behavior of a ScCO₂-Stimulated Geothermal Reservoir under in-situ Stress and Temperature Conditions

Authors: B. L. Avanthi Isaka, P. G. Ranjith

Abstract:

The development of technically-sound enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) is identified as a viable solution for world growing energy demand with immense potential, low carbon dioxide emission and importantly, as an environmentally friendly option for renewable energy production. The use of supercritical carbon dioxide (ScCO₂) as the working fluid in EGSs by replacing traditional water-based method is promising due to multiple advantages prevail in ScCO₂-injection for underground reservoir stimulation. The evolution of reservoir stimulation using ScCO₂ and the understanding of the flow behavior of a ScCO₂-stimulated geothermal reservoir is vital in applying ScCO₂-EGSs as a replacement for water-based EGSs. The study is therefore aimed to investigate the flow behavior of a ScCO₂-fractured rock medium at in-situ stress and temperature conditions. A series of permeability tests were conducted for ScCO₂ fractured Harcourt granite rock specimens at 90ºC, under varying confining pressures from 5–60 MPa using the high-pressure and high-temperature tri-axial set up which can simulate deep geological conditions. The permeability of the ScCO₂-fractured rock specimens was compared with that of water-fractured rock specimens. The results show that the permeability of the ScCO₂-fractured rock specimens is one order higher than that of water-fractured rock specimens and the permeability exhibits a non-linear reduction with increasing confining pressure due to the stress-induced fracture closure. Further, the enhanced permeability of the ScCO₂-induced fracture with multiple secondary branches was explained by exploring the CT images of the rock specimens. However, a single plain fracture was induced under water-based fracturing.

Keywords: supercritical carbon dioxide, fracture permeability, granite, enhanced geothermal systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
14498 Evaluating the Success of an Intervention Course in a South African Engineering Programme

Authors: Alessandra Chiara Maraschin, Estelle Trengove

Abstract:

In South Africa, only 23% of engineering students attain their degrees in the minimum time of 4 years. This begs the question: Why is the 4-year throughput rate so low? Improving the throughput rate is crucial in assisting students to the shortest possible path to completion. The Electrical Engineering programme has a fixed curriculum and students must pass all courses in order to graduate. In South Africa, as is the case in several other countries, many students rely on external funding such as bursaries from companies in industry. If students fail a course, they often lose their bursaries, and most might not be able to fund their 'repeating year' fees. It is thus important to improve the throughput rate, since for many students, graduating from university is a way out of poverty for an entire family. In Electrical Engineering, it has been found that the Software Development I course (an introduction to C++ programming) is a significant hurdle course for students and has been found to have a low pass rate. It has been well-documented that students struggle with this type of course as it introduces a number of new threshold concepts that can be challenging to grasp in a short time frame. In an attempt to mitigate this situation, a part-time night-school for Software Development I was introduced in 2015 as an intervention measure. The course includes all the course material from the Software Development I module and allows students who failed the course in first semester a second chance by repeating the course through taking the night-school course. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the introduction of this intervention course could be considered a success. The success of the intervention is assessed in two ways. The study will first look at whether the night-school course contributed to improving the pass rate of the Software Development I course. Secondly, the study will examine whether the intervention contributed to improving the overall throughput from the 2nd year to the 3rd year of study at a South African University. Second year academic results for a sample of 1216 students have been collected from 2010-2017. Preliminary results show that the lowest pass rate for Software Development I was found to be in 2017 with a pass rate of 34.9%. Since the intervention course's inception, the pass rate for Software Development I has increased each year from 2015-2017 by 13.75%, 25.53% and 25.81% respectively. To conclude, the preliminary results show that the intervention course is a success in improving the pass rate of Software Development I.

Keywords: academic performance, electrical engineering, engineering education, intervention course, low pass rate, software development course, throughput

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
14497 Remediation of Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (O&G E&P) Wastes Using Soil-Poultry Dropping Amendment

Authors: Ofonime U. M. John, Justina I. R. Udotong, Victor O. Nwaugo, Ime R. Udotong

Abstract:

Oily wastes from oil and gas exploration and production (O&G E&P) activities were remediated for twelve weeks using Soil-Poultry dropping amendment. Culture-dependent microbiological, chemical and enzymatic techniques were employed to assess the efficacy of remediation process. Microbiological activities of the remediated wastes showed increased hydrocarbonoclastic microbial populations with increased remediation time; 2.7±0.1 x 105cfu/g to 8.3 ± 0.04 x106cfu/g for hydrocarbon utilizing bacteria, 1.7 ± 0.2 x103cfu/g to 6.0 ± 0.01 x 104cfu/g for hydrocarbon utilizing fungi and 2.2 ± 0.1 x 102cfu/g to 6.7 ± 0.1 x 103cfu/g for hydrocarbon utilizing actinomycetes. Bacteria associated with the remediated wastes after the remediation period included the genera Bacillus, Psuedomonas, Beijerinckia, Acinetobacter, Alcaligenes and Serratia. Fungal isolates included species of Penicillium, Aspergillus and Cladosporium, while the Actinomycetes included species of Rhodococcus, Nocardia and Streptomyces. Slight fluctuations in pH values between 6.5± 0.2 and 7.1 ± 0.08 were recorded throughout the process, while total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) content decreased from 89, 900 ± 0.03mg/kg to 425 ± 0.1 mg/kg after twelve weeks of remediation. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels decreased with increased remediation time; naphthalene, flourene, pheneanthrene, anthracene, pyrene, chrysene and benzo(b)flouranthene showed decreased values < 0.01 after twelve weeks of remediation. Enzyme activities revealed increased dehydrogenase and urease activities with increased remediation time and decreased phenol oxidase activity with increased remediation period. There was a positive linear correlation between densities of hydrocarbonoclastic microbes and dehydrogenase activity. On the contrary, phenol oxidase and urease activities showed negative correlation with microbial population. Results of this study confirmed that remediation of oily wastes using soil-poultry dropping amendment can result in eco-friendly O&G E&P wastes. It also indicates that urease and phenol oxidase activities can be reliable indices/tools to monitor PAH levels and rates of petroleum hydrocarbon degradation.

Keywords: dehydrogenase activity, oily wastes, remediation, soil-poultry dropping amendment

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
14496 An Enhanced MEIT Approach for Itemset Mining Using Levelwise Pruning

Authors: Tanvi P. Patel, Warish D. Patel

Abstract:

Association rule mining forms the core of data mining and it is termed as one of the well-known methodologies of data mining. Objectives of mining is to find interesting correlations, frequent patterns, associations or casual structures among sets of items in the transaction databases or other data repositories. Hence, association rule mining is imperative to mine patterns and then generate rules from these obtained patterns. For efficient targeted query processing, finding frequent patterns and itemset mining, there is an efficient way to generate an itemset tree structure named Memory Efficient Itemset Tree. Memory efficient IT is efficient for storing itemsets, but takes more time as compare to traditional IT. The proposed strategy generates maximal frequent itemsets from memory efficient itemset tree by using levelwise pruning. For that firstly pre-pruning of items based on minimum support count is carried out followed by itemset tree reconstruction. By having maximal frequent itemsets, less number of patterns are generated as well as tree size is also reduced as compared to MEIT. Therefore, an enhanced approach of memory efficient IT proposed here, helps to optimize main memory overhead as well as reduce processing time.

Keywords: association rule mining, itemset mining, itemset tree, meit, maximal frequent pattern

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
14495 Socio-Technical Systems: Transforming Theory into Practice

Authors: L. Ngowi, N. H. Mvungi

Abstract:

This paper critically examines the evolution of socio-technical systems theory, its practices, and challenges in system design and development. It examines concepts put forward by researchers focusing on the application of the theory in software engineering. There are various methods developed that use socio-technical concepts based on systems engineering without remarkable success. The main constraint is the large amount of data and inefficient techniques used in the application of the concepts in system engineering for developing time-bound systems and within a limited/controlled budget. This paper critically examines each of the methods, highlight bottlenecks and suggest the way forward. Since socio-technical systems theory only explains what to do, but not how doing it, hence engineers are not using the concept to save time, costs and reduce risks associated with new frameworks. Hence, a new framework, which can be considered as a practical approach is proposed that borrows concepts from soft systems method, agile systems development and object-oriented analysis and design to bridge the gap between theory and practice. The approach will enable the development of systems using socio-technical systems theory to attract/enable the system engineers/software developers to use socio-technical systems theory in building worthwhile information systems to avoid fragilities and hostilities in the work environment.

Keywords: socio-technical systems, human centered design, software engineering, cognitive engineering, soft systems, systems engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 289
14494 Tourism Potentials of Ikogosi Warm Spring in Nigeria

Authors: A.I. Adeyemo

Abstract:

Ikogosi warm spring results from a complex mechanical and chemical forces that generates internal heat in the rocks forming a warm and cold water at the same geographical location at the same time. From time immemorial, the local community had thought, it to be the work of a deity, and they were worshipping the spring. This complex phenomenon has been a source of tourist attraction to both local and international tourists over the years. 450 copies of a structured questionnaire were given out, and a total of 500 respondents were interviewed. The result showed that ikogosi warm spring impacts the community positively by providing employment to the teeming youths, and it provides income to traders. The result shows that 66% of the respondents confirmed that it increased their income and that transportation business increased more than 73%.the level of enlightenment and socialization increased greatly in the community. However, it also impacted the community negatively as it increased crime rates such as stealing, kidnapping, prostitution, and unwanted pregnancy among the secondary school girls and the other teenagers. Generally, 50% of the respondents reported that tourism in the warm spring results in insecurity in the community. IT also increased environmental problems such as noise and waste pollutions; the continuous movement on the land results in soil compartment leading to erosion, and leaching, which also results in loss of soil fertility. It was concluded that if the potentials of the spring are fully tapped, it will be a good avenue for income generation to the country.

Keywords: community, Ikogosi, revenue, warm spring

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
14493 An Automatic Large Classroom Attendance Conceptual Model Using Face Counting

Authors: Sirajdin Olagoke Adeshina, Haidi Ibrahim, Akeem Salawu

Abstract:

large lecture theatres cannot be covered by a single camera but rather by a multicamera setup because of their size, shape, and seating arrangements. Although, classroom capture is achievable through a single camera. Therefore, a design and implementation of a multicamera setup for a large lecture hall were considered. Researchers have shown emphasis on the impact of class attendance taken on the academic performance of students. However, the traditional method of carrying out this exercise is below standard, especially for large lecture theatres, because of the student population, the time required, sophistication, exhaustiveness, and manipulative influence. An automated large classroom attendance system is, therefore, imperative. The common approach in this system is face detection and recognition, where known student faces are captured and stored for recognition purposes. This approach will require constant face database updates due to constant changes in the facial features. Alternatively, face counting can be performed by cropping the localized faces on the video or image into a folder and then count them. This research aims to develop a face localization-based approach to detect student faces in classroom images captured using a multicamera setup. A selected Haar-like feature cascade face detector trained with an asymmetric goal to minimize the False Rejection Rate (FRR) relative to the False Acceptance Rate (FAR) was applied on Raspberry Pi 4B. A relationship between the two factors (FRR and FAR) was established using a constant (λ) as a trade-off between the two factors for automatic adjustment during training. An evaluation of the proposed approach and the conventional AdaBoost on classroom datasets shows an improvement of 8% TPR (output result of low FRR) and 7% minimization of the FRR. The average learning speed of the proposed approach was improved with 1.19s execution time per image compared to 2.38s of the improved AdaBoost. Consequently, the proposed approach achieved 97% TPR with an overhead constraint time of 22.9s compared to 46.7s of the improved Adaboost when evaluated on images obtained from a large lecture hall (DK5) USM.

Keywords: automatic attendance, face detection, haar-like cascade, manual attendance

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
14492 Filtering Momentum Life Cycles, Price Acceleration Signals and Trend Reversals for Stocks, Credit Derivatives and Bonds

Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

Abstract:

Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
14491 Contagion of the Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Systemic Risk in the Banking System: Extreme Value Theory Analysis in Six Emerging Asia Economies

Authors: Ratna Kuswardani

Abstract:

This paper aims to study the impact of recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on 6 selected emerging Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea). We first figure out the contagion of GFC from the US and Europe to the selected emerging Asian countries by studying the tail dependence of market stock returns between those countries. We apply the concept of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the dependence between multiple returns series of variables under examination. We explore the factors causing the contagion between the regions. We find dependencies between markets that are influenced by their size, especially for large markets in emerging Asian countries that tend to have a higher dependency to the market in the more advanced country such as the U.S. and some countries in Europe. The results also suggest that the dependencies between market returns and bank stock returns in the same region tend to be higher than dependencies between these returns across two different regions. We extend our analysis by studying the impact of GFC on the systemic in the banking system. We also find that larger institution has more dependencies with the market stock, suggesting that larger size bank can cause disruption in the market. Further, the higher probability of extreme loss can be seen during the crisis period, which is shown by the non-linear dependency between the pre-crisis and the post-crisis period. Finally, our analysis suggests that systemic risk appears in the domestic banking systems in emerging Asia, as shown by the extreme dependencies within banks in the system. Overall, our results provide caution to policy makers and investors alike on the possible contagion of the impact of global financial crisis across different markets.

Keywords: contagion, extreme value theory, global financial crisis, systemic risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 156