Search results for: robust penalized regression

Authors: Jeeban Amgain

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This paper investigates the impact of the size and composition of government expenditure and tax on GDP per capita growth in 36 Asian economies over the period of 1991-2012. The research employs the technique of panel regression; Fixed Effects and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as well as other statistical and descriptive approaches. The finding concludes that the size of government expenditure and tax revenue are generally low in this region. GDP per capita growth is strongly negative in response to Government expenditure, however, no significant relationship can be measured in case of size of taxation although it is positively correlated with economic growth. Panel regression of decomposed fiscal components also shows that the pattern of allocation of expenditure and taxation really matters on growth. Taxes on international trade and property have a significant positive impact on growth. In contrast, a major portion of expenditure, i.e. expenditure on general public services, health and education are found to have significant negative impact on growth, implying that government expenditures are not being productive in the Asian region for some reasons. Comparatively smaller and efficient government size would enhance the growth.

Keywords: government expenditure, tax, GDP per capita growth, composition

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Authors: Adam M. Yates, Julie E. Byles

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Hypertension has been identified as a prominent co-morbidity of obesity. To improve clinical intervention of hypertension, it is critical to identify metrics that most accurately reflect risk for increased morbidity. Two of the most relevant and accurate measures for increased risk of hypertension due to excess adipose tissue are Body Mass Index (BMI) and Waist-Height Ratio (WHtR). Previous research has examined these measures in cross-national and cross-ethnic studies, but has most often relied on secondary means such as meta-analysis to identify and evaluate the efficacy of individual body mass measures. In this study, we instead use cross-sectional analysis to assess the cross-ethnic discriminative power of BMI and WHtR to predict risk of hypertension. Using the WHO SAGE survey, which collected anthropometric and biometric data from respondents in six middle-income countries (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa), we implement logistic regression to examine the discriminative power of measured BMI and WHtR with a known population of hypertensive and non-hypertensive respondents. We control for gender and age to identify whether optimum cut-off points that are adequately sensitive as tests for risk of hypertension may be different between groups. We report results for OR, RR, and ROC curves for each of the six SAGE countries. As seen in existing literature, results demonstrate that both WHtR and BMI are significant predictors of hypertension (p < .01). For these six countries, we find that cut-off points for WHtR may be dependent upon gender, age and ethnicity. While an optimum omnibus cut-point for WHtR may be 0.55, results also suggest that the gender and age relationship with WHtR may warrant the development of individual cut-offs to optimize health outcomes. Trends through multiple countries show that the optimum cut-point for WHtR increases with age while the area under the curve (AUROC) decreases for both men and women. Comparison between BMI and WHtR indicate that BMI may remain more robust than WHtR. Implications for public health policy are discussed.

Keywords: hypertension, obesity, Waist-Height ratio, SAGE

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Authors: Adela Diepoltova, Klara Konecna, Ondrej Jandourek, Petr Nachtigal

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A loss of control over antibiotic-resistant pathogens has become a global issue due to severe and often untreatable infections. This state is reflected in complicated treatment, health costs, and higher mortality. All these factors emphasize the urgent need for the discovery and development of new anti-infectives. One of the most common pathogens mentioned in the phenomenon of antibiotic resistance are bacteria of the genus Staphylococcus. These bacterial agents have developed several mechanisms against the effect of antibiotics. One of them is biofilm formation. In staphylococci, biofilms are associated with infections such as endocarditis, osteomyelitis, catheter-related bloodstream infections, etc. To author's best knowledge, no validated and standardized methodology evaluating candidate compound activity against staphylococcal biofilms exists. However, a variety of protocols for in vitro drug activity testing has been suggested, yet there are often fundamental differences. Based on our experience, a key methodological step that leads to credible results is to form a robust biofilm with appropriate attributes such as firm adherence to the substrate, a complex arrangement in layers, and the presence of extracellular polysaccharide matrix. At first, for the purpose of drug antibiofilm activity evaluation, the focus was put on various conditions (supplementation of cultivation media by human plasma/fetal bovine serum, shaking mode, the density of initial inoculum) that should lead to reproducible and robust in vitro staphylococcal biofilm formation in microtiter plate model. Three model staphylococcal reference strains were included in the study: Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 29213), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 43300), and Staphylococcus epidermidis (ATCC 35983). The total biofilm biomass was quantified using the Christensen method with crystal violet, and results obtained from at least three independent experiments were statistically processed. Attention was also paid to the viability of the biofilm-forming staphylococcal cells and the presence of extracellular polysaccharide matrix. The conditions that led to robust biofilm biomass formation with attributes for biofilms mentioned above were then applied by introducing an alternative method analogous to the commercially available test system, the Calgary Biofilm Device. In this test system, biofilms are formed on pegs that are incorporated into the lid of the microtiter plate. This system provides several advantages (in situ detection and quantification of biofilm microbial cells that have retained their viability after drug exposure). Based on our preliminary studies, it was found that the attention to the peg surface and substrate on which the bacterial biofilms are formed should also be paid to. Therefore, further steps leading to the optimization were introduced. The surface of pegs was coated by human plasma, fetal bovine serum, and L-polylysine. Subsequently, the willingness of bacteria to adhere and form biofilm was monitored. In conclusion, suitable conditions were revealed, leading to the formation of reproducible, robust staphylococcal biofilms in vitro for the microtiter model and the system analogous to the Calgary biofilm device, as well. The robustness and typical slime texture could be detected visually. Likewise, an analysis by confocal laser scanning microscopy revealed a complex three-dimensional arrangement of biofilm forming organisms surrounded by an extracellular polysaccharide matrix.

Keywords: anti-biofilm drug activity screening, in vitro biofilm formation, microtiter plate model, the Calgary biofilm device, staphylococcal infections, substrate modification, surface coating

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Authors: Davod Ahmadigheidari

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The main objective of this study was to explore prevalence of anthropometric indicators as well the factors associated with the anthropometric indications in Mali. Data on 2015, downloaded from the website of Unicef, were analyzed. A total of 16,467 women (ages 15-49 years) and 16,467 children (ages 0-59 months) were selected for the sample. Different statistical analyses, such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression form the basis of this study. Child anthropometric indicators (i.e., wasting, stunting, underweight and BMI for age) were used as the dependent variables. SPSS Syntax from WHO was used to create anthropometric indicators. Different factors, such as child’s sex, child’s age groups, child’s diseases symptoms (i.e., diarrhea, cough and fever), maternal education, household wealth index and area of residence were used as independent variables. Results showed more than forty percent of Malian households were in nutritional crises (stunting (42%) and underweight (34%). Findings from logistic regression analyses indicated that low score of wealth index, low maternal education and experience of diarrhea in last two weeks increase the probability of child malnutrition.

Keywords: Mali, wasting, stunting, underweight, BMI for age and wealth index

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Authors: Hassan Bohra, Mingfeng Wang

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Conjugated porous polymers (CPPs) are amorphous, insoluble and highly robust organic semiconductors that have been largely synthesized by traditional transition-metal catalyzed reactions. The distinguishing feature of CPP materials is that they combine microporosity and high surface areas with extended conjugation, making them ideal for versatile applications such as separation, catalysis and energy storage. By applying a modular approach to synthesis, chemical and electronic properties of CPPs can be tailored for specific applications making these materials economical alternatives to inorganic semiconductors. Direct arylation - an environmentally benign alternative to traditional polymerization reactions – is one such reaction that extensively over the last decade for the synthesis of linear p-conjugated polymers. In this report, we present the synthesis and characterization of a new series of robust conjugated porous polymers synthesized by facile direct arylation polymerization of thiophene-flanked acceptor building blocks with multi-brominated aryls with different geometries. We observed that the porosities and morphologies of the polymers are determined by the chemical structure of the aryl bromide used. Moreover, good control of the optical bandgap in the range 2.53 - 1.3 eV could be obtained by using different building blocks. Structure-property relationships demonstrated in this study suggest that direct arylation polymerization is an attractive synthetic tool for the rational design of porous organic materials with tunable photo-physical properties for applications in photocatalysis, energy storage and conversion.

Keywords: direct arylation, conjugated porous polymers, triazine, photocatalysis

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Authors: Arun Dhakal, Geoff Cockfield, Tek Narayan Maraseni

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This paper attempts to fulfil the gap in measuring adoption in agroforestry studies. It explains the derivation of an index of adoption rate in a Nepalese context and examines the factors affecting adoption of agroforestry-based land management practice (AFLMP) in the Dhanusha District of Nepal. Data about the different farm practices and the factors (bio-physical, socio-economic) influencing adoption were collected during focus group discussion and from the randomly selected households using a household survey questionnaire, respectively. A multivariate regression model was used to determine the factors. The factors (variables) found to significantly affect adoption of AFLMP were: farm size, availability of irrigation water, education of household heads, agricultural labour force, frequency of visits by extension workers, expenditure on farm inputs purchase, household’s experience in agroforestry, and distance from home to government forest. The regression model explained about 75% of variation in adoption decision. The model rejected ‘erosion hazard’, ‘flood hazard’ and ‘gender’ as determinants of adoption, which in case of single agroforestry practice were major variables and played positive role. Out of eight variables, farm size played the most powerful role in explaining the variation in adoption, followed by availability of irrigation water and education of household heads. The results of this study suggest that policies to promote the provision of irrigation water, extension services and motivation to obtaining higher education would probably provide the incentive to adopt agroforestry elsewhere in the terai of Nepal.

Keywords: agroforestry, adoption index, determinants of adoption, step-wise linear regression, Nepal

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Authors: Peter Temitope Agboola

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Food insecurity continues to affect a large number of U.S households during this coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has threatened the livelihoods of people, making them vulnerable to severe hardship and has had an unanticipated impact on the U.S economy. This study attempts to identify the food insecurity status of households and the determinant factors driving household food insecurity. Additionally, it attempts to discover the mitigation measures adopted by households during the pandemic in the city of Huntsville, Texas. A structured online sample survey was used to collect data, with a household expenditures survey used in evaluating the food security status of the household. Most survey respondents disclosed that the COVID-19 pandemic had affected their life and source of income. Furthermore, the main analytical tool used for the study is descriptive statistics and logistic regression modeling. A logistic regression model was used to determine the factors responsible for food insecurity in the study area. The result revealed that most households in the study area are food secure, with the remainder being food insecure.

Keywords: food insecurity, household expenditure survey, COVID-19, coping strategies, food pantry

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Authors: Ali Soroush, Mehdi Mirzaei Alavijeh, Touraj Ahmadi Jouybari, Fazel Zinat-Motlagh, Abbas Aghaei, Mari Ataee

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Diabetes is a disease with long cardiovascular, renal, ophthalmic and neural complications. It is prevalent all around the world including Iran, and its prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study was to determine the factors related to self-care behavior based on health belief model among sample of Iranian diabetic patients. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 301 type 2 diabetic patients in Gachsaran, Iran. Data collection was based on an interview and the data were analyzed by SPSS version 20 using ANOVA, t-tests, Pearson correlation, and linear regression statistical tests at 95% significant level. Linear regression analyses showed the health belief model variables accounted for 29% of the variation in self-care behavior; and perceived severity and perceived self-efficacy are more influential predictors on self-care behavior among diabetic patients.

Keywords: diabetes, patients, self-care behaviors, health belief model

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Authors: Rajneekant Bachan, Dhanush Vijay

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The visualization of operating systems has refined the Turing machine, and current trends suggest that the emulation of 32 bit architectures will soon emerge. After years of technical research into Web services, we demonstrate the synthesis of gigabit switches, which embodies the robust principles of theory. Loam, our new algorithm for forward-error correction, is the solution to all of these challenges.

Keywords: software engineering, architectures, introspective models, operating systems

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Authors: Hamed Rashid Sarand, Kemal Selçuk Öğüt

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Speed is one of the fundamental variables of road traffic flow that stands as an important evaluation criterion for traffic analyses in several aspects. In particular, varieties of speed variable, such as average speed, free flow speed, optimum speed (capacity speed), acceleration/deceleration speed and so on, have been explicitly considered in the analysis of not only road safety but also road capacity. In the purpose of realizing 'road speed – maximum speed difference across lanes' and 'road flow rate – maximum speed difference across lanes' relations on freeway traffic, this study presents a case study conducted on a basic freeway segment of O-2 in Istanbul. The traffic data employed in this study have been obtained from 5 remote traffic microwave sensors operated by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The study stretch is located between two successive freeway interchanges: Ümraniye and Kavacık. Daily traffic data of 4 years (2011-2014) summer months, July and August are used. The speed data are analyzed into two main flow areas such as uncongested and congested flows. In this study, the regression analyses were carried out in order to examine the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed. These investigations were implemented at uncongested and congested flows, separately. Moreover, the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate were evaluated by applying regression analyses for both uncongested and congested flows separately. It is concluded that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed in 50% cases. Additionally, it is indicated that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate in 30% cases. The maximum speed difference across lanes decreases as the road flow rate increases.

Keywords: maximum speed difference, regression analysis, remote traffic microwave sensor, speed differentiation, traffic flow

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Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

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We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

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Authors: Tahir Nawaz Cheema, Dumitru Baleanu, Ali Raza

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In this research work, we design intelligent computing through Bayesian Regularization artificial neural networks (BRANNs) introduced to solve the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases (Covid-19). The dynamical transmission is due to the interaction of people and its mathematical representation based on the system's nonlinear differential equations. The generation of the dataset of the Covid-19 model is exploited by the power of the explicit Runge Kutta method for different countries of the world like India, Pakistan, Italy, and many more. The generated dataset is approximately used for training, testing, and validation processes for every frequent update in Bayesian Regularization backpropagation for numerical behavior of the dynamics of the Covid-19 model. The performance and effectiveness of designed methodology BRANNs are checked through mean squared error, error histograms, numerical solutions, absolute error, and regression analysis.

Keywords: mathematical models, beysian regularization, bayesian-regularization backpropagation networks, regression analysis, numerical computing

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Authors: Ahmad Zulfahmi Mohd Kamaruzaman, Mohd Ismail Ibrahim, Ariffin Marzuki Mokhtar, Maizun Mohd Zain, Saiful Nazri Satiman, Mohd Najib Majdi Yaacob

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Background: Aftermath any patient safety incidents, the involved healthcare providers possibly sustained second victim-related distress (second victim distress and reduced their professional efficacy), with subsequent negative work-related outcomes or vice versa cultivating resilience. This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting negative work-related outcomes and resilience, with the triad of support; colleague, supervisor, and institutional support as the hypothetical mediators. Methods: This was a cross sectional study recruiting a total of 733 healthcare providers from three tertiary care in Kelantan, Malaysia. Three steps of hierarchical linear regression were developed for each outcome; negative work-related outcomes and resilience. Then, four multiple mediator models of support triad were analyzed. Results: Second victim distress, professional efficacy, and the support triad contributed significantly for each regression model. In the pathway of professional efficacy on each negative work-related outcomes and resilience, colleague support partially mediated the relationship. As for second victim distress on negative work related outcomes, colleague and supervisor support were the partial mediator, and on resilience; all support triad also produced a similar effect. Conclusion: Second victim distress, professional efficacy, and the support triad influenced the relationship with the negative work-related outcomes and resilience. Support triad as the mediators ameliorated the effect in between and explained the urgency of having good support for recovery post encountering patient safety incidents.

Keywords: second victims, patient safety incidents, hierarchical linear regression, mediation, support

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Authors: Richard Patrick Kabuye

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This study focuses on the addressing the enhancement of in-service training programs as a tool of transforming the existing traditional approaches of formal lectures/contact hours. This will be supported with a more versatile, robust, and remotely accessible means of mobile based e-learning, as a support tool for the traditional means. A combination of various factors in education and incorporation of the eLearning strategy proves to be a key factor in effective in-service education. Key factor needs to be factored in so as to maintain a credible co-existence of the programs, with the prevailing social, economic and political environments. Effective in-service education focuses on having immediate transformation of knowledge into practice for a good time period, active participation of attendees, enable before training planning, in training assessment and post training feedback training analysis which will yield knowledge to the trainers of the applicability of knowledge given out. All the above require a more robust approach to attain success in implementation. Incorporating mobile technology in eLearning will enable the above to be factored together in a more coherent manner, as it is evident that participants have to take time off their duties and attend to these training programs. Making it mobile, will save a lot of time since participants would be in position to follow certain modules while away from lecture rooms, get continuous program updates after completing the program, send feedback to instructors on knowledge gaps, and a wholly conclusive evaluation of the entire program on a learn as you work platform. This study will follow both qualitative and quantitative approaches in data collection, and this will be compounded incorporating a mobile eLearning application using Android.

Keywords: in service, training, mobile, e- learning, model

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Authors: Suryapeta Harini

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Road surface roughness is one of the essential aspects of the road's functional condition, indicating riding comfort in both the transverse and longitudinal directions. The government of India has made maintaining good surface evenness a prerequisite for all highway projects. Pavement distress data was collected with a Network Survey Vehicle (NSV) on a National Highway. It determines the smoothness and frictional qualities of the pavement surface, which are related to driving safety and ease. Based on the data obtained in the field, a regression equation was created with the IRI value and the visual distresses. The suggested system can use wireless acceleration sensors and GPS to gather vehicle status and location data, as well as calculate the international roughness index (IRI). Potholes, raveling, rut depth, cracked area, and repair work are all affected by pavement roughness, according to the current study. The study was carried out in one location. Data collected through using Bump integrator was used for the validation. The bump integrator (BI) obtained using deflection from the network survey vehicle was correlated with the distress parameter to establish an equation.

Keywords: roughness index, network survey vehicle, regression, correlation

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Authors: Miguel Cañon, Darwin Mena, Ivan Cabeza

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In this work was compared and evaluated the applicability of statistical methods for the estimation of missing precipitations data in the basin of the river Lenguazaque located in the departments of Cundinamarca and Boyacá, Colombia. The methods used were the method of simple linear regression, distance rate, local averages, mean rates, correlation with nearly stations and multiple regression method. The analysis used to determine the effectiveness of the methods is performed by using three statistical tools, the correlation coefficient (r2), standard error of estimation and the test of agreement of Bland and Altmant. The analysis was performed using real rainfall values removed randomly in each of the seasons and then estimated using the methodologies mentioned to complete the missing data values. So it was determined that the methods with the highest performance and accuracy in the estimation of data according to conditions that were counted are the method of multiple regressions with three nearby stations and a random application scheme supported in the precipitation behavior of related data sets.

Keywords: statistical comparison, precipitation data, river subbasin, Bland and Altmant

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Authors: Raeed Alanazi

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Introduction: Nursing students have a crucial role to play in the inhibition of infectious diseases and, therefore, must be trained in infection control and prevention modules prior to entering clinical settings. Simulations have been found to have a positive impact on infection control skills and the use of standard precautions. Aim: The purpose of this study was to use the four sources of self-efficacy in explaining the level of clinical self-efficacy and adherence to infection control practices in Saudi nursing students during simulation practice. Method: A cross-sectional design with convenience sampling was used. This study was conducted in all Saudi nursing schools, with a total number of 197 students participated in this study. Three scales were used simulation self- efficacy Scale (SSES), the four sources of self-efficacy scale (SSES), and Compliance with Standard Precautions Scale (CSPS). Multiple linear regression was used to test the use of the four sources of self-efficacy (SSES) in explaining level of clinical self-efficacy and adherence to infection control in nursing students. Results: The vicarious experience subscale (p =.044) was statistically significant. The regression model indicated that for every one unit increase in vicarious experience (observation and reflection in simulation), the participants’ adherence to infection control increased by .13 units (β =.22, t = 2.03, p =.044). In addition, the regression model indicated that for every one unit increase in education level, the participants’ adherence to infection control increased by 1.82 units (beta=.34= 3.64, p <.001). Also, the mastery experience subscale (p <.001) and vicarious experience subscale (p = .020) were shared significant associations with clinical self-efficacy. Conclusion: The findings of this research support the idea that simulation-based learning can be a valuable teaching-learning method to help nursing students develop clinical competence, which is essential in providing quality and safe nursing care.

Keywords: simulation-based learning, clinical self-efficacy, infection control, nursing students

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Authors: Müzeyyen Balçikanli, Erdoğan Özbay, Hakan Tacettin Türker, Okan Karahan, Cengiz Duran Atiş

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In this research, effect of curing time (TC), curing temperature (CT), sodium concentration (SC) and silicate modules (SM) on the compressive strength, chloride ion permeability, and water absorption capacity of alkali activated slag (AAS) concretes were investigated. For maximization of compressive strength while for minimization of chloride ion permeability and water absorption capacity of AAS concretes, best possible combination of CT, CTime, SC and SM were determined. An experimental program was conducted by using the central composite design method. Alkali solution-slag ratio was kept constant at 0.53 in all mixture. The effects of the independent parameters were characterized and analyzed by using statistically significant quadratic regression models on the measured properties (dependent parameters). The proposed regression models are valid for AAS concretes with the SC from 0.1% to 7.5%, SM from 0.4 to 3.2, CT from 20 °C to 94 °C and TC from 1.2 hours to 25 hours. The results of test and analysis indicate that the most effective parameter for the compressive strength, chloride ion permeability and water absorption capacity is the sodium concentration.

Keywords: alkali activation, slag, rapid chloride permeability, water absorption capacity

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Authors: Thi Thi Zin, Pyke Tin, Ikuo Kobayashi, Yoichiro Horii

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Today dairy farm experts and farmers have well recognized the importance of dairy cow Body Condition Score (BCS) since these scores can be used to optimize milk production, managing feeding system and as an indicator for abnormality in health even can be utilized to manage for having healthy calving times and process. In tradition, BCS measures are done by animal experts or trained technicians based on visual observations focusing on pin bones, pin, thurl and hook area, tail heads shapes, hook angles and short and long ribs. Since the traditional technique is very manual and subjective, the results can lead to different scores as well as not cost effective. Thus this paper proposes an algebraic geometric imaging approach for an automatic dairy cow BCS system. The proposed system consists of three functional modules. In the first module, significant landmarks or anatomical points from the cow image region are automatically extracted by using image processing techniques. To be specific, there are 23 anatomical points in the regions of ribs, hook bones, pin bone, thurl and tail head. These points are extracted by using block region based vertical and horizontal histogram methods. According to animal experts, the body condition scores depend mainly on the shape structure these regions. Therefore the second module will investigate some algebraic and geometric properties of the extracted anatomical points. Specifically, the second order polynomial regression is employed to a subset of anatomical points to produce the regression coefficients which are to be utilized as a part of feature vector in scoring process. In addition, the angles at thurl, pin, tail head and hook bone area are computed to extend the feature vector. Finally, in the third module, the extracted feature vectors are trained by using Markov Classification process to assign BCS for individual cows. Then the assigned BCS are revised by using multiple regression method to produce the final BCS score for dairy cows. In order to confirm the validity of proposed method, a monitoring video camera is set up at the milk rotary parlor to take top view images of cows. The proposed method extracts the key anatomical points and the corresponding feature vectors for each individual cows. Then the multiple regression calculator and Markov Chain Classification process are utilized to produce the estimated body condition score for each cow. The experimental results tested on 100 dairy cows from self-collected dataset and public bench mark dataset show very promising with accuracy of 98%.

Keywords: algebraic geometric imaging approach, body condition score, Markov classification, polynomial regression

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang

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This research used artificial intelligence method to explore elderly’s opinions on the reuse of telecare, its effect on their service quality, satisfaction and the relationship between customer perceived value and intention to reuse. This study conducted a questionnaire survey on the elderly. A total of 124 valid copies of a questionnaire were obtained. It adopted Backpropagation Network (BPN) to propose an effective and feasible analysis method, which is different from the traditional method. Two third of the total samples (82 samples) were taken as the training data, and the one third of the samples (42 samples) were taken as the testing data. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.022 and 0.009 in the BPN, respectively. As shown, the errors are acceptable. On the other hand, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.100 and 0.099 in the regression model, respectively. In addition, the results showed the service quality has the greatest effects on the intention to reuse, followed by the satisfaction, and perceived value. This result of the Backpropagation Network method is better than the regression analysis. This result can be used as a reference for future research.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, backpropagation network (BPN), elderly, reuse, telecare

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Authors: Bitewulign Mekonnen

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Context: This scientific paper focuses on the use of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to determine glucose concentration in aqueous solutions accurately and rapidly. The study compares six different machine learning methods for predicting glucose concentration and also explores the development of a deep learning model for classifying NIR spectra. The objective is to optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction. This research is important because it provides a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating aqueous glucose concentrations. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to compare and evaluate different machine-learning methods for predicting glucose concentration from NIR spectra. Additionally, the study aims to develop and assess a deep-learning model for classifying NIR spectra. Methodology: The research methodology involves the use of machine learning and deep learning techniques. Six machine learning regression models, including support vector machine regression, partial least squares regression, extra tree regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting, and principal component analysis-neural network, are employed to predict glucose concentration. The NIR spectra data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the process is repeated ten times to increase generalization ability. In addition, a convolutional neural network is developed for classifying NIR spectra. Findings: The study reveals that the SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit excellent performance in predicting glucose concentration, with correlation coefficients (R) > 0.99 and determination coefficients (R²)> 0.985. The deep learning model achieves high macro-averaging scores for precision, recall, and F1-measure. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning and deep learning methods in optimizing the detection model and improving glucose prediction accuracy. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to the field by providing a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating glucose concentrations from NIR spectra. It also explores the use of deep learning for the classification of indistinguishable NIR spectra. The findings highlight the potential of machine learning and deep learning in enhancing the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The NIR spectra and corresponding references for glucose concentration are measured in increments of 20 mg/dl. The data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the models are evaluated using regression analysis and classification metrics. The performance of each model is assessed based on correlation coefficients, determination coefficients, precision, recall, and F1-measure. Question Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether machine learning and deep learning methods can optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction from NIR spectra. Conclusion: The research demonstrates that machine learning and deep learning methods can effectively predict glucose concentration from NIR spectra. The SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit superior performance, while the deep learning model achieves high classification scores. These findings suggest that machine learning and deep learning techniques can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Further research is needed to explore their clinical utility in analyzing complex matrices, such as blood glucose levels.

Keywords: machine learning, signal processing, near-infrared spectroscopy, support vector machine, neural network

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Ameur Abdelkader, Abed Bouarfa Hafida

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Since its inception, predictive analysis has revolutionized the IT industry through its robustness and decision-making facilities. It involves the application of a set of data processing techniques and algorithms in order to create predictive models. Its principle is based on finding relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables. Past occurrences are exploited to predict and to derive the unknown outcome. With the advent of big data, many studies have suggested the use of predictive analytics in order to process and analyze big data. Nevertheless, they have been curbed by the limits of classical methods of predictive analysis in case of a large amount of data. In fact, because of their volumes, their nature (semi or unstructured) and their variety, it is impossible to analyze efficiently big data via classical methods of predictive analysis. The authors attribute this weakness to the fact that predictive analysis algorithms do not allow the parallelization and distribution of calculation. In this paper, we propose to extend the predictive analysis algorithm, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), in order to adapt it for big data analysis. The major changes of this algorithm are presented and then a version of the extended algorithm is defined in order to make it applicable for a huge quantity of data.

Keywords: predictive analysis, big data, predictive analysis algorithms, CART algorithm

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Authors: Thewodros K. Geberemariam

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The rapid physical expansion of urbanization coupled with aging infrastructure presents a unique decision and management challenges for many big city municipalities. Cities must therefore upgrade and maintain the existing aging urban drainage infrastructure systems to keep up with the demands. Given the overall contribution of assets to municipal revenue and the importance of infrastructure to the success of a livable city, many municipalities are currently looking for a robust and smart urban drainage infrastructure asset management solution that combines management, financial, engineering and technical practices. This robust decision-making shall rely on sound, complete, current and relevant data that enables asset valuation, impairment testing, lifecycle modeling, and forecasting across the multiple asset portfolios. On this paper, predictive computational intelligence (CI) and multi-class machine learning (ML) coupled with online, offline, and historical record data that are collected from an array of multi-parameter sensors are used for the extraction of different operational and non-conforming patterns hidden in structured and unstructured data to determine and produce actionable insight on the current and future states of the network. This paper aims to improve the strategic decision-making process by identifying all possible alternatives; evaluate the risk of each alternative, and choose the alternative most likely to attain the required goal in a cost-effective manner using historical and near real-time urban drainage infrastructure data for urban drainage infrastructures assets that have previously not benefited from computational intelligence and machine learning advancements.

Keywords: computational intelligence, machine learning, urban drainage infrastructure, machine learning, classification, prediction, asset management space

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Authors: Revalin Herdianto

Abstract:

Recent climate changes increase uncertainties in vegetation conditions such as health and biomass globally and locally. The detection is, however, difficult due to the spatial and temporal scale of vegetation coverage. Due to unique vegetation response to its environmental conditions such as water availability, the interplay between vegetation dynamics and hydrologic conditions leave a signature in their feedback relationship. Vegetation indices (VI) depict vegetation biomass and photosynthetic capacity that indicate vegetation dynamics as a response to variables including hydrologic conditions and microclimate factors such as rainfall characteristics and land surface temperature (LST). It is hypothesized that the signature may be depicted by VI in its relationship with other variables. To study this signature, several catchments in Asia, Australia, and Indonesia were analysed to assess the variations in hydrologic characteristics with vegetation types. Methods used in this study includes geographic identification and pixel marking for studied catchments, analysing time series of VI and LST of the marked pixels, smoothing technique using Savitzky-Golay filter, which is effective for large area and extensive data. Time series of VI, LST, and rainfall from satellite and ground stations coupled with digital elevation models were analysed and presented. This study found that the hydrologic response of vegetation to rainfall variations may be shown in one hydrologic year, in which a drought event can be detected a year later as a suppressed growth. However, an annual rainfall of above average do not promote growth above average as shown by VI. This technique is found to be a robust and tractable approach for assessing catchment dynamics in changing climates.

Keywords: vegetation indices, land surface temperature, vegetation dynamics, catchment

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Authors: Ikpechukwu Njoku

Abstract:

The study examined appraisal of shipping trade influence on the economic growth in Nigeria from 1981-2016 by the use of secondary data collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The main objectives are to examine the trend of shipping trade in Nigeria as well as determine the influence of economic growth on gross domestic product (GDP). The study employed both descriptive and influential tools. The study adopted cointegration regression method for the analysis of each of the variables (shipping trade, external reserves and external debts). The results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between GDP and external reserves with p-value 0.0190. Also the result revealed that there is a statistically significant relationship between GDP and shipping trade with p-value 0.000. However, shipping trade and external reserves contributed positively at 1% and 5% level of significance respectively while external debts impacted negatively to GDP at 5% level of significance with a long run variance of cointegration regression. Therefore, the study suggests that government should do all it can to curtail foreign dominance and repatriation of profit for a more sustainable economy as well as upgrade port facilities, prevent unnecessary delays and encourage exportable goods for maximum deployment of ships.

Keywords: external debts, external reserve, GDP, shipping trade

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Authors: Kaycee Bills

Abstract:

This study will determine if students with disabilities have higher student loan debt payments than other student populations. The hypothesis was that students with disabilities would have significantly higher student loan debt payments than other students due to the length of time they spend in school. Using the Bachelorette and Beyond Study Wave 2015/017 dataset, quantitative methods were employed. These data analysis methods included linear regression and a correlation matrix. Due to the exploratory nature of the study, the significance levels for the overall model and each variable were set at .05. The correlation matrix demonstrated that students with certain types of disabilities are more likely to fall under higher student loan payment brackets than students without disabilities. These results also varied among the different types of disabilities. The result of the overall linear regression model was statistically significant (p = .04). Despite the overall model being statistically significant, the majority of the significance values for the different types of disabilities were null. However, several other variables had statistically significant results, such as veterans, people of minority races, and people who attended private schools. Implications for how this impacts the economy, capitalism, and financial wellbeing of various students are discussed.

Keywords: disability, student loan debt, higher education, social work

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Authors: Chaluntorn Vichasilp, Sutee Wangtueai

Abstract:

This study aims to develop a new method to detect active compounds in Thai herbs (1-deoxynojirimycin (DNJ) in mulberry leave, anthocyanin in Mao and curcumin in turmeric) using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRs). NIRs is non-destructive technique that rapid, non-chemical involved and low-cost determination. By NIRs and chemometrics technique, it was found that the DNJ prediction equation conducted with partial least square regression with cross-validation had low accuracy R2 (0.42) and SEP (31.87 mg/100g). On the other hand, the anthocyanin prediction equation showed moderate good results (R2 and SEP of 0.78 and 0.51 mg/g) with Multiplication scattering correction at wavelength of 2000-2200 nm. The high absorption could be observed at wavelength of 2047 nm and this model could be used as screening level. For curcumin prediction, the good result was obtained when applied original spectra with smoothing technique. The wavelength of 1400-2500 nm was created regression model with R2 (0.68) and SEP (0.17 mg/g). This model had high NIRs absorption at a wavelength of 1476, 1665, 1986 and 2395 nm, respectively. NIRs showed prospective technique for detection of some active compounds in Thai herbs.

Keywords: anthocyanin, curcumin, 1-deoxynojirimycin (DNJ), near infrared spectroscopy (NIRs)

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Authors: Margareth E. Bolla, Ludfi Djakfar, Achmad Wicaksono

Abstract:

The increase in the number of motorcycle users in Indonesia is in line with the increase in accidents involving motorcycles. Several previous studies have shown that humans are the biggest factor causing accidents, and the driver's personality factor will affect his behavior on the road. This study was conducted to see how a person's personality traits will affect the probability of having an accident while driving. The Big Five Inventory (BFI) questionnaire and the Honda Riding Trainer (HRT) simulator were used as measuring tools, while the analysis carried out was logistic regression analysis. The results of the descriptive analysis of the respondent's personality based on the BFI show that the majority of drivers have the dominant character of neuroticism (34%), while the smallest group is the driver with the dominant type of openness character (6%). The percentage of motorists who were not involved in an accident was 54%. The results of the logistic regression analysis form a mathematical model as follows Y = -3.852 - 0.288 X1 + 0.596 X2 + 0.429 X3 - 0.386 X4 - 0.094 X5 + 0.436 X6 + 0.162 X7, where the results of hypothesis testing indicate that the variables openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, history of traffic accidents and age at starting driving did not have a significant effect on the probability of a motorcyclist being involved in an accident.

Keywords: accidents, BFI, probability, simulator

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Authors: Ahmed Bolaji Alarape, Oluwatobi Damilola Aba

Abstract:

The growth pattern of Oreochromis niloticus and Sarotherodon galilaeus in Epe Lagoon Lagos State was investigated. One hundred (100) samples of each species were collected from fishermen at the landing site. They were transported to the Fisheries Laboratory of National Institute of Oceanography for identification, sexing morphometric measurement. The results showed that 58.0% and 56.0 % of the O.niloticus and S.galilaeus were female respectively while 42.0% and 44.0% were male respectively. The length-weight relationship of O.niloticus showed a strong regression coefficient (r = 0.944) (p<0.05) for the combined sex, (r =0.901) (p<0.05) for female and (r=0.985) (p<.05) for male with b-value of 2.5, 3.1 and 2.8 respectively. The S.galilaeus also showed a regression coefficient of r=0.970; p<0.05 for the combined sex, r=0.953; p<0.05 for the female and r= 0.979; p<0.05 for the male with b-value of 3.4, 3.1 and 3.6 respectively. O.niloticus showed an isometric growth pattern both in male and female. The condition factor in O.niloticus are 1.93 and 1.95 for male and female respectively while that of S.galilaeus is 1.95 for both sexes. Positive allometric was observed in both species except the male O.niloticus that showed negative allometric growth pattern. From the results of this study, the growth pattern of the two species indicated a good healthy environment.

Keywords: Epe Lagoon, length-weight relationship, Oreochromis niloticus, Sarotherodon galilaeus

Procedia PDF Downloads 123