Search results for: cut-off probability

Authors: Chane-Yu Lai, Xiang-Yu Huang

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This study conducted an assessment of sampling result by using the new development rotation filtration device (RFD) filled with porous media filters integrating the method of cyclone centrifugal spins. The testing system established for the experiment used corn oil and potassium sodium tartrate tetrahydrate (PST) as challenge aerosols and were produced by using an Ultrasonic Atomizing Nozzle, a Syringe Pump, and a Collison nebulizer. The collection efficiency of RFD for oil aerosol was assessed by using an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) and a Fidas® Frog. The results of RFD for the liquid particles condition indicated the cutoff size was 1.65 µm and 1.02 µm for rotation of 0 rpm and 9000 rpm, respectively, under an 80 PPI (pores per inch）foam with a thickness of 80 mm, and sampling velocity of 13.5 cm/s. As the experiment increased the foam thickness of RFD, the cutoff size reduced from 1.62 µm to 1.02 µm. However, when increased the foam porosity of RFD, the cutoff size reduced from 1.26 µm to 0.96 µm. Moreover, as increased the sampling velocity of RFD, the cutoff size reduced from 1.02 µm to 0.76 µm. These discrepancies of above cutoff sizes of RFD all had statistical significance (P < 0.05). The cutoff size of RFD for three experimental conditions of generated liquid oil particles, solid PST particles or both liquid oil and solid PST particles was 1.03 µm, 1.02 µm, or 0.99 µm, respectively, under a 80 PPI foam with thickness of 80 mm, rotation of 9000 rpm, and sampling velocity of 13.5 cm/s. In addition, under the best condition of the experiment, two hours of sampling loading, the RFD had better collection efficiency for particle diameter greater than 0.45 µm, under a 94 PPI nickel mesh with a thickness of 68 mm, rotation of 9000 rpm, and sampling velocity of 108.3 cm/s. The experiment concluded that increased the thickness of porous media, face velocity, and porosity of porous media of RFD could increase the collection efficiency of porous media for sampling oil particles. Moreover, increased the rotation speed of RFD also increased the collection efficiency for sampling oil particles. Further investigation is required for those above operation parameters for RFD in this study in the future.

Keywords: oil aerosol, porous media filter, rotation, filtration

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Gali Moritz, Jacqueline H. Becker, Jyoti V. Ankam, Kimberly Arcoleo, Matthew Wysocki, Roee Holtzer, Juan Wisnivesky, Paula J. Busse, Alex D. Federman, Sunit P. Jariwala, Jonathan M. Feldman

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Objective: Cognitive impairment (CI), whose incidence is greater among ethnic/racial minorities, is a significant barrier to asthma self-management (SM) behaviors and outcomes in older adults. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between CI, assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), and asthma SM behaviors and outcomes in a sample of predominantly Black and Hispanic participants. Additionally, we evaluated whether using two different MoCA cutoff scores influenced the association between CI and study outcomes. Methods: Baseline cross-sectional data were extracted from a longitudinal study of older adults with asthma (N=165) age≥ 60 years and used for analysis. Cognition was assessed using the MoCA. Asthma control, asthma-related quality of life (QOL), inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) dosing, and ICS adherence were assessed using self-report. The inhaler technique was observed and rated. Results: Using established MoCA cutoff scores of 23 and 26 yielded 45% and 74% CI rates, respectively. CI, defined using the 23 cutoff score, was significantly associated with worse asthma control (p=.04) and worse ICS adherence (p=.01). With a cutoff score of 26, only asthma-related QOL was significantly associated with CI (p=.03). Race/ethnicity and education did not moderate the relationships between CI and asthma SM behaviors and outcomes. Conclusions: CI in older adults with asthma is associated with important clinical outcomes, but this relationship is influenced by the cutoff score used to define CI.

Keywords: cognition, respiratory, elderly, testing, adherence, validity

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Authors: Amil Suleimanov, Aigul Saduakassova, Denis Vinnikov

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Objective: To assess functional visceral fat (VAT) activity evaluated by ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) as a predictor of metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC). Materials and methods: We assessed 60 patients with histologically confirmed CRC who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT after a surgical treatment and courses of chemotherapy. Age, histology, stage, and tumor grade were recorded. Functional VAT activity was measured by maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) using ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and tested as a predictor of later metastases in eight abdominal locations (RE – Epigastric Region, RLH – Left Hypochondriac Region, RRL – Right Lumbar Region, RU – Umbilical Region, RLL – Left Lumbar Region, RRI – Right Inguinal Region, RP – Hypogastric (Pubic) Region, RLI – Left Inguinal Region) and pelvic cavity (P) in the adjusted regression models. We also report the best areas under the curve (AUC) for SUVmax with the corresponding sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp). Results: In both adjusted for age regression models and ROC analysis, 18F-FDG accumulation in RLH (cutoff SUVmax 0.74; Se 75%; Sp 61%; AUC 0.668; p = 0.049), RU (cutoff SUVmax 0.78; Se 69%; Sp 61%; AUC 0.679; p = 0.035), RRL (cutoff SUVmax 1.05; Se 69%; Sp 77%; AUC 0.682; p = 0.032) and RRI (cutoff SUVmax 0.85; Se 63%; Sp 61%; AUC 0.672; p = 0.043) could predict later metastases in CRC patients, as opposed to age, sex, primary tumor location, tumor grade and histology. Conclusions: VAT SUVmax is significantly associated with later metastases in CRC patients and can be used as their predictor.

Keywords: ¹⁸F-FDG, PET/CT, colorectal cancer, predictive value

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Authors: Osama Moustafa Zayed

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Aim of the work: To evaluate the effectiveness of venous glucose, levels of serum lactate and base deficit in polytraumatized patients as simple parameters to predict the mortality in these patients. Compared to the predictive value of Trauma and injury severity (TRISS) and Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV). Introduction: Trauma is a serious global health problem, accounting for approximately one in 10 deaths worldwide. Trauma accounts for 5 million deaths per year. Prediction of mortality in trauma patients is an important part of trauma care. Several trauma scores have been devised to predict injury severity and risk of mortality. The trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) was most common used. Regardless of the accuracy of trauma scores, is based on an anatomical description of every injury and cannot be assigned to the patients until a full diagnostic procedure has been performed. So we hypothesized that alterations in admission glucose, lactate levels and base deficit would be an early and easy rapid predictor of mortality. Patient and Method: a comparative cross-sectional study. 282 Polytraumatized patients attended to the Emergency Department(ED) of the Suez Canal university Hospital constituted. The period from 1/1/2012 to 1/4/2013 was included. Results: We found that the best cut off value of TRISS probability of survival score for prediction of mortality among poly-traumatized patients is = 90, with 77% sensitivity and 89% specificity using area under the ROC curve (0.89) at (95%CI). APACHE IV demonstrated 67% sensitivity and 95% specificity at 95% CI at cut off point 99. The best cutoff value of Random Blood Sugar (RBS) for prediction of mortality was>140 mg/dl, with 89%, sensitivity, 49% specificity. The best cut off value of base deficit for prediction of mortality was less than -5.6 with 64% sensitivity, 93% specificity. The best cutoff point of lactate for prediction of mortality was > 2.6 mmol/L with 92%, sensitivity, 42% specificity. Conclusion: According to our results from all evaluated predictors of mortality (laboratory and scores) and mortality based on the estimated cutoff values using ROC curves analysis, the highest risk of mortality was found using a cutoff value of 90 in TRISS score while with laboratory parameters the highest risk of mortality was with serum lactate > 2.6 . Although that all of the three parameter are accurate in predicting mortality in poly-traumatized patients and near with each other, as in serum lactate the area under the curve 0.82, in BD 0.79 and 0.77 in RBS.

Keywords: APACHE IV, emergency department, polytraumatized patients, serum lactate

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Authors: Ahmet Kaya

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Incoming cash flows and outgoing claims play an important role to determine how is companies’ profit or loss. In this matter, ruin probability provides to describe vulnerability of the companies against ruin. Quantum mechanism is one of the significant approaches to model ruin probability as stochastically. Using the Hamiltonian method, we have performed formalisation of quantum mechanics < x|e-ᵗᴴ|x' > and obtained the transition probability of 2x2 and 3x3 matrix as traditional and eigenvector basis where A is a ruin operator and H|x' > is a Schroedinger equation. This operator A and Schroedinger equation are defined by a Hamiltonian matrix H. As a result, probability of not to be in ruin can be simulated and calculated as stochastically.

Keywords: ruin probability, quantum mechanics, Hamiltonian technique, operator approach

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Authors: Naoyuki Sugihashi, Toshiharu Kishi

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The probability of occurrence of thermal cracks in mass concrete in Japan is evaluated by the cracking probability diagram that represents the relationship between the thermal cracking index and the probability of occurrence of cracks in the actual structure. In this paper, we propose a method to directly calculate the cracking probability, following a probabilistic theory by modeling the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength. In this method, the relationship between the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength, the thermal cracking index, and the cracking probability are formulated and presented. In addition, standard deviation of tensile stress and tensile strength was identified, and the method of calculating cracking probability in a general construction controlled environment was also demonstrated.

Keywords: thermal crack control, mass concrete, thermal cracking probability, durability of concrete, calculating method of cracking probability

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Authors: Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma, Sujatha Krishnamoorthy, Safiya Al‑Sharji

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The probability computation of events is in the interval of [0, 1], which are values that are determined by the number of outcomes of events in a sample space S. The probability Pr(A) that an event A will never occur is 0. The probability Pr(B) that event B will certainly occur is 1. This makes both events A and B a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E₁) + Pr(E₂) + … + Pr(Eₙ) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S equals 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. This paper first discusses Bayes, the complement of probability, and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events before applying them in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum of 1; to make a recommendation for student learning, this paper proposes that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and the probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates i) the probability of skill-set events that have occurred that would lead to higher-level learning; ii) the probability of the events that have not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of the decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning.

Keywords: complement of probability, Bayes’ rule, prediction, pre-assessments, computational education, information theory

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Authors: Ahmet Kaya

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Quantum mechanism is one of the most important approaches to calculating non-ruin probability. We apply standard Dirac notation to model given Hamiltonians. By using the traditional method and eigenvector basis, non-ruin probability is found for several examples. Also, non-ruin probability is calculated for two different Hamiltonian by using the tensor product. Finally, the path integral method is applied to the examples and comparison is made for stochastic simulations and path integral calculation.

Keywords: quantum physics, Hamiltonian system, path integral, tensor product, ruin probability

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Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

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In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Chen

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This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

Keywords: approaching index, forward collision probability, time to collision, time headway

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian

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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

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Authors: Dheeraj Sharma, Santosh Kumar Vishvakarma

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We present a detailed analysis of analog and radiofrequency (RF) performance with different gate lengths for nanowire cylindrical gate (CylG) gate-all-around (GAA) MOSFET. CylG GAA MOSFET not only suppresses the short channel effects (SCEs), it is also a good candidate for analog/RF device due to its high transconductance (gm) and high cutoff frequency (fT ). The presented work would be beneficial for a new generation of RF circuits and systems in a broad range of applications and operating frequency covering the RF spectrum. For this purpose, the analog/RF figures of merit for CylG GAA MOSFET is analyzed in terms of gate to source capacitance (Cgs), gate to drain capacitance (Cgd), transconductance generation factor gm = Id (where Id represents drain current), intrinsic gain, output resistance, fT, maximum frequency of oscillation (fmax) and gain bandwidth (GBW) product.

Keywords: Gate-All-Around MOSFET, GAA, output resistance, transconductance generation factor, intrinsic gain, cutoff frequency, fT

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Quznetsov Gunn

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In the study of the logical foundations of probability theory, it was found that the terms and equations of the fundamental theoretical physics represent terms and theorems of the classical probability theory, more precisely, of that part of this theory, which considers the probability of dot events in the 3 + 1 space-time. In particular, the masses, moments, energies, spins, etc. turn out of parameters of probability distributions such events. The terms and the equations of the electroweak and of the quark-gluon theories turn out the theoretical-probabilistic terms and theorems. Here the relation of a neutrino to his lepton becomes clear, the W and Z bosons masses turn out dynamic ones, the cause of the asymmetry between particles and antiparticles is the impossibility of the birth of single antiparticles. In addition, phenomena such as confinement and asymptotic freedom receive their probabilistic explanation. And here we have the logical foundations of the gravity theory with phenomena dark energy and dark matter.

Keywords: classical theory of probability, logical foundation of fundamental theoretical physics, masses, moments, energies, spins

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Authors: Armenuhi Ghazaryan, Qnarik Poghosyan, Tadevos Markosyan

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We have considered the high-order harmonic generation in-plane graphene quantum dots of hexagonal shape by the independent quasiparticle approximation-tight binding model. We have investigated how such a nonlinear effect is affected by a strong optical wave field, quantum dot typical band gap and lateral size, and dephasing processes. The equation of motion for the density matrix is solved by performing the time integration with the eight-order Runge-Kutta algorithm. If the optical wave frequency is much less than the quantum dot intrinsic band gap, the main aspects of multiphoton high harmonic emission in quantum dots are revealed. In such a case, the dependence of the cutoff photon energy on the strength of the optical pump wave is almost linear. But when the wave frequency is comparable to the bandgap of the quantum dot, the cutoff photon energy shows saturation behavior with an increase in the wave field strength.

Keywords: strong wave field, multiphoton, bandgap, wave field strength, nanostructure

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Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Sule Sahin, Basak Bulut Karageyik

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This paper introduces a hazard rate function for the time of ruin to calculate the conditional probability of ruin for very small intervals. We call this function the force of ruin (FoR). We obtain the expected time of ruin and conditional expected time of ruin from the exact finite time ruin probability with exponential claim amounts. Then we introduce the FoR which gives the conditional probability of ruin and the condition is that ruin has not occurred at time t. We analyse the behavior of the FoR function for different initial surpluses over a specific time interval. We also obtain FoR under the excess of loss reinsurance arrangement and examine the effect of reinsurance on the FoR.

Keywords: conditional time of ruin, finite time ruin probability, force of ruin, reinsurance

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Authors: Junling Li, Fang Meng, Yichun Zhang

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Image saliency detection has been long studied, while several challenging problems are still unsolved, such as detecting saliency inaccurately in complex scenes or suppressing salient objects in the image borders. In this paper, we propose a new saliency detection algorithm in order to solving these problems. We represent the image as a graph with superixels as nodes. By considering appearance similarity between the boundary and the background, the proposed method chooses non-saliency boundary nodes as background priors to construct the background probability model. The probability that each node belongs to the model is computed, which measures its similarity with backgrounds. Thus we can calculate saliency by the transformed probability as a metric. We compare our algorithm with ten-state-of-the-art salient detection methods on the public database. Experimental results show that our simple and effective approach can attack those challenging problems that had been baffling in image saliency detection.

Keywords: visual saliency, background probability, boundary knowledge, background priors

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Jaroslav Žák

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Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: failure, pavement, probability, reliability index, simulation, tensile crack

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Authors: Yanhua Zhao, Yu Gou, Shu Feng, Dongdong Li, Chuanmin Tao

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The natural history of HBV infection could experience immune tolerant (IT), immune clearance (IC), HBeAg-negative inactive/quienscent carrier (ENQ), and HBeAg-negative hepatitis (ENH). As current biomarkers for discriminating these four phases have some weaknesses, additional serological indicators are needed. Hepatits B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) encoded with precore/core gene contains denatured HBeAg, HBV core antigen (HBcAg) and a 22KDa precore protein (p22cr), which was demonstrated to have a close association with natural history of hepatitis B infection, but no specific cutoff values and diagnostic parameters to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy. This study aimed to clarify the distribution of HBcrAg levels and evaluate its diagnostic performance during the natural history of infection from a Western Chinese perspective. 294 samples collected from treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients in different phases (IT=64; IC=72; ENQ=100, and ENH=58). We detected the HBcrAg values and analyzed the relationship between HBcrAg and HBV DNA. HBsAg and other clinical parameters were quantitatively tested. HBcrAg levels of four phases were 9.30 log U/mL, 8.80 log U/mL, 3.00 log U/mL, and 5.10 logU/mL, respectively (p < 0.0001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the area under curves (AUCs) of HBcrAg and quantitative HBsAg at cutoff values of 9.25 log U/mL and 4.355 log IU/mL for distinguishing IT from IC phases were 0.704 and 0.694, with sensitivity 76.39% and 59.72%, specificity 53.13% and 79.69%, respectively. AUCs of HBcrAg and quantitative HBsAg at cutoff values of 4.15 log U/mlmL and 2.395 log IU/mlmL for discriminating between ENQ and ENH phases were 0.931 and 0.653, with sensitivity 87.93% and 84%, specificity 91.38% and 39%, respectively. Therefore, HBcrAg levels varied significantly among four natural phases of HBV infection. It had higher predictive performance than quantitative HBsAg for distinguishing between ENQ-patients and ENH-patients and similar performance with HBsAg for the discrimination between IT and IC phases, which indicated that HBcrAg could be a potential serological marker for CHB.

Keywords: chronic hepatitis B, hepatitis B core-related antigen, hepatitis B surface antigens, hepatitis B virus

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Authors: Jerry Hu

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Let G = (V, E) with V = {1, 2, ..., k} be a graph, the k positive integers a₁, a₂, ..., ak are G-wise relatively prime if (aᵢ, aⱼ ) = 1 for {i, j} ∈ E. We use an inductive approach to give an asymptotic formula for the number of k-tuples of integers that are G-wise relatively prime. An exact formula is obtained for the probability that k positive integers are G-wise relatively prime. As a corollary, we also provide an exact formula for the probability that k positive integers have exactly r relatively prime pairs.

Keywords: graph, independent set, G-wise relatively prime, probability

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Authors: Bahareh Zare

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The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 610

Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

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This paper examines the behavior of a system, which upon failure is either replaced with certain probability p or imperfectly repaired with probability q. The system is analyzed using Kolmogorov's forward equations method; the analytical expression for the steady state availability is derived as an indicator of the system’s performance. It is found that the analysis becomes more complex as the number of imperfect repairs increases. It is also observed that the availability increases as the number of states and replacement probability increases. Using such an approach in more complex configurations and in dynamic systems is cumbersome; therefore, it is advisable to resort to simulation or heuristics. In this paper, an example is provided for demonstration.

Keywords: repairable models, imperfect, availability, exponential distribution

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country's supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export's probability increases by about 1.7%, 4%, and 1.1% due to a 1% increase in trade facilitation, R&D stock, and year of education. These results are significant at the usual levels. We suggest a development agenda aimed at reducing the level of informality in this country.

Keywords: development, trade, informality, trade facilitation, economy of Guinea-Bissau

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Authors: S. H. Atef, N. H. Mahmoud, S. Abdrahman, A. Fattoh

Abstract:

Background: The aim of the study is to assess the diagnostic value of fibrotest and hyaluronic acid in discriminate between insignificant and significant fibrosis. Also, to find out if these parameters could replace liver biopsy which is currently used for selection of chronic hepatitis C patients eligible for antiviral therapy. Study design: This study was conducted on 52 patients with HCV RNA detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) who had undergone liver biopsy and attending the internal medicine clinic at Ain Shams University Hospital. Liver fibrosis was evaluated according to the METAVIR scoring system on a scale of F0 to F4. Biochemical markers assessed were: alpha-2 macroglobulin (α2-MG), apolipoprotein A1 (Apo-A1), haptoglobin, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), total bilirubin (TB) and hyaluronic acid (HA). The fibrotest score was computed after adjusting for age and gender. Predictive values and ROC curves were used to assess the accuracy of fibrotest and HA results. Results: For fibrotest, the observed area under curve for the discrimination between minimal or no fibrosis (F0-F1) and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was 0.6736 for cutoff value 0.19 with sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity of 85.7%. For HA, the sensitivity was 89.5% and specificity was 85.7% and area under curve was 0.540 at the best cutoff value 71 mg/dL. Multi-use of both parameters, HA at 71 mg/dL with fibrotest score at 0.22 give a sensitivity 89.5%, specificity 100 and efficacy 92.3% (AUC 0.895). Conclusion: The use of both fibrotest score and HA could be as alternative to biopsy in most patients with chronic hepaitis C putting in consideration some limitations of the proposed markers in evaluating liver fibrosis.

Keywords: fibrotest, liver fibrosis, HCV RNA, biochemical markers

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