Search results for: resilience curve
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1950

Search results for: resilience curve

1350 Finite Element Modeling and Nonlinear Analysis for Seismic Assessment of Off-Diagonal Steel Braced RC Frame

Authors: Keyvan Ramin

Abstract:

The geometric nonlinearity of Off-Diagonal Bracing System (ODBS) could be a complementary system to covering and extending the nonlinearity of reinforced concrete material. Finite element modeling is performed for flexural frame, x-braced frame and the ODBS braced frame system at the initial phase. Then the different models are investigated along various analyses. According to the experimental results of flexural and x-braced frame, the verification is done. Analytical assessments are performed in according to three-dimensional finite element modeling. Non-linear static analysis is considered to obtain performance level and seismic behavior, and then the response modification factors calculated from each model’s pushover curve. In the next phase, the evaluation of cracks observed in the finite element models, especially for RC members of all three systems is performed. The finite element assessment is performed on engendered cracks in ODBS braced frame for various time steps. The nonlinear dynamic time history analysis accomplished in different stories models for three records of Elcentro, Naghan, and Tabas earthquake accelerograms. Dynamic analysis is performed after scaling accelerogram on each type of flexural frame, x-braced frame and ODBS braced frame one by one. The base-point on RC frame is considered to investigate proportional displacement under each record. Hysteresis curves are assessed along continuing this study. The equivalent viscous damping for ODBS system is estimated in according to references. Results in each section show the ODBS system has an acceptable seismic behavior and their conclusions have been converged when the ODBS system is utilized in reinforced concrete frame.

Keywords: FEM, seismic behaviour, pushover analysis, geometric nonlinearity, time history analysis, equivalent viscous damping, passive control, crack investigation, hysteresis curve

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1349 Canada's "Flattened Curve": A Geospatail Temporal Analysis of Canada's Amelioration of The Sars-Cov-2 Pandemic Through Coordinated Government Intervention

Authors: John Ahluwalia

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As an affluent first-world nation, Canada took swift and comprehensive action during the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic compared to other countries in the same socio-economic cohort. The United States has stumbled to overcome obstacles most developed nations have faced, which has led to significantly more per capita cases and deaths. The initial outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred in the US and Canada within days of each other and posed similar potentially catastrophic threats to public health, the economy, and governmental stability. On a macro level, events that take place in the US have a direct impact on Canada. For example, both countries tend to enter and exit economic recessions at approximately the same time, they are each other’s largest trading partners, and their currencies are inexorably linked. Variables intrinsic to Canada’s national infrastructure have been instrumental in the country’s efforts to flatten the curve of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Canada’s coordinated multi-level governmental effort has allowed it to create and enforce policies related to COVID-19 at both the national and provincial levels. Canada’s policy of universal health care is another variable. Health care and public health measures are enforced on a provincial level, and it is within each province’s jurisdiction to dictate standards for public safety based on scientific evidence. Rather than introducing confusion and the possibility of competition for resources such as PPE and vaccines, Canada’s multi-level chain of government authority has provided consistent policies supporting national public health and local delivery of medical care. This paper will demonstrate that the coordinated efforts on provincial and federal levels have been the linchpin in Canada’s relative success in containing the deadly spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, canada, GIS, geospatial analysis

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1348 Parental Drinking and Risky Alcohol Related Behaviors: Predicting Binge Drinking Trajectories and Their Influence on Impaired Driving among College Students

Authors: Shiran Bord, Assaf Oshri, Matthew W. Carlson, Sihong Liu

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Background: Alcohol-impaired driving (AID) and binge drinking are major health concerns among college students. Although the link between binge drinking and AID is well established, knowledge regarding binge drinking patterns, the factors influencing binge drinking, and the associations between consumption patterns and alcohol-related risk behaviors is lacking. Aims: To examine heterogeneous trajectories of binge drinking during college and tests factors that might predict class membership as well as class membership outcomes. Methods: Data were obtained from a sample of 1,265 college students (Mage = 18.5, SD = .66) as part of the Longitudinal Study of Violence Against Women (N = 1,265; 59.3% female; 69.2% white). Analyses were completed in three stages. First, a growth curve analysis was conducted to identify trajectories of binge drinking over time. Second, growth curve mixture modeling analyses were pursued to assess unobserved growth trajectories of binge drinking without predictors. Lastly, parental drinking variables were added to the model as predictors of class membership, and AID and being a passenger of a drunk driver were added to the model as outcomes. Results: Three binge drinking trajectories were identified: high-convex, medium concave and low-increasing. Parental drinking was associated with being in high-convex and medium-concave classes. Compared to the low-increasing class, the high convex and medium concave classes reported more AID and being a passenger of a drunk driver more frequently. Conclusions: Parental drinking may affect children’s later engagement in AID. Efforts should focus on parents' education regarding the consequences of parental modeling of alcohol consumption.

Keywords: alcohol impaired driving, alcohol consumption, binge drinking, college students, parental modeling

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1347 The Role of Supply Chain Agility in Improving Manufacturing Resilience

Authors: Maryam Ziaee

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This research proposes a new approach and provides an opportunity for manufacturing companies to produce large amounts of products that meet their prospective customers’ tastes, needs, and expectations and simultaneously enable manufacturers to increase their profit. Mass customization is the production of products or services to meet each individual customer’s desires to the greatest possible extent in high quantities and at reasonable prices. This process takes place at different levels such as the customization of goods’ design, assembly, sale, and delivery status, and classifies in several categories. The main focus of this study is on one class of mass customization, called optional customization, in which companies try to provide their customers with as many options as possible to customize their products. These options could range from the design phase to the manufacturing phase, or even methods of delivery. Mass customization values customers’ tastes, but it is only one side of clients’ satisfaction; on the other side is companies’ fast responsiveness delivery. It brings the concept of agility, which is the ability of a company to respond rapidly to changes in volatile markets in terms of volume and variety. Indeed, mass customization is not effectively feasible without integrating the concept of agility. To gain the customers’ satisfaction, the companies need to be quick in responding to their customers’ demands, thus highlighting the significance of agility. This research offers a different method that successfully integrates mass customization and fast production in manufacturing industries. This research is built upon the hypothesis that the success key to being agile in mass customization is to forecast demand, cooperate with suppliers, and control inventory. Therefore, the significance of the supply chain (SC) is more pertinent when it comes to this stage. Since SC behavior is dynamic and its behavior changes constantly, companies have to apply one of the predicting techniques to identify the changes associated with SC behavior to be able to respond properly to any unwelcome events. System dynamics utilized in this research is a simulation approach to provide a mathematical model among different variables to understand, control, and forecast SC behavior. The final stage is delayed differentiation, the production strategy considered in this research. In this approach, the main platform of products is produced and stocked and when the company receives an order from a customer, a specific customized feature is assigned to this platform and the customized products will be created. The main research question is to what extent applying system dynamics for the prediction of SC behavior improves the agility of mass customization. This research is built upon a qualitative approach to bring about richer, deeper, and more revealing results. The data is collected through interviews and is analyzed through NVivo software. This proposed model offers numerous benefits such as reduction in the number of product inventories and their storage costs, improvement in the resilience of companies’ responses to their clients’ needs and tastes, the increase of profits, and the optimization of productivity with the minimum level of lost sales.

Keywords: agility, manufacturing, resilience, supply chain

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1346 Effect of Microstructure and Texture of Magnesium Alloy Due to Addition of Pb

Authors: Yebeen Ji, Jimin Yun, Kwonhoo Kim

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Magnesium alloys were limited for industrial applications due to having a limited slip system and high plastic anisotropy. It has been known that specific textures were formed during processing (rolling, etc.), and These textures cause poor formability. To solve these problems, many researchers have studied controlling texture by adding rare-earth elements. However, the high cost limits their use; therefore, alternatives are needed to replace them. Although Pb addition doesn’t directly improve magnesium properties, it has been known to suppress the diffusion of other alloying elements and reduce grain boundary energy. These characteristics are similar to the additions of rare-earth elements, and a similar texture behavior is expected as well. However, there is insufficient research on this. Therefore, this study investigates the behavior of texture and microstructure development after adding Pb to magnesium. This study compared and analyzed AZ61 alloy and Mg-15wt%Pb alloy to determine the effect of adding solute elements. The alloy was hot rolled and annealed to form a single phase and initial texture. Afterward, the specimen was set to contraction and elongate parallel to the rolling surface and the rolling direction and then subjected to high-temperature plane strain compression under the conditions of 723K and 0.05/s. Microstructural analysis and texture measurements were performed by SEM-EBSD. The peak stress in the true strain-stress curve after compression was higher in AZ61, but the shape of the flow curve was similar for both alloys. For both alloys, continuous dynamic recrystallization was confirmed to occur during the compression process. The basal texture developed parallel to the compressed surface, and the pole density was lower in the Mg-15wt%Pb alloy. It is confirmed that this change in behavior is because the orientation distribution of recrystallized grains has a more random orientation compared to the parent grains when Pb is added.

Keywords: Mg, texture, Pb, DRX

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1345 Unleashing the Power of Cerebrospinal System for a Better Computer Architecture

Authors: Lakshmi N. Reddi, Akanksha Varma Sagi

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Studies on biomimetics are largely developed, deriving inspiration from natural processes in our objective world to develop novel technologies. Recent studies are diverse in nature, making their categorization quite challenging. Based on an exhaustive survey, we developed categorizations based on either the essential elements of nature - air, water, land, fire, and space, or on form/shape, functionality, and process. Such diverse studies as aircraft wings inspired by bird wings, a self-cleaning coating inspired by a lotus petal, wetsuits inspired by beaver fur, and search algorithms inspired by arboreal ant path networks lend themselves to these categorizations. Our categorizations of biomimetic studies allowed us to define a different dimension of biomimetics. This new dimension is not restricted to inspiration from the objective world. It is based on the premise that the biological processes observed in the objective world find their reflections in our human bodies in a variety of ways. For example, the lungs provide the most efficient example for liquid-gas phase exchange, the heart exemplifies a very efficient pumping and circulatory system, and the kidneys epitomize the most effective cleaning system. The main focus of this paper is to bring out the magnificence of the cerebro-spinal system (CSS) insofar as it relates to our current computer architecture. In particular, the paper uses four key measures to analyze the differences between CSS and human- engineered computational systems. These are adaptability, sustainability, energy efficiency, and resilience. We found that the cerebrospinal system reveals some important challenges in the development and evolution of our current computer architectures. In particular, the myriad ways in which the CSS is integrated with other systems/processes (circulatory, respiration, etc) offer useful insights on how the human-engineered computational systems could be made more sustainable, energy-efficient, resilient, and adaptable. In our paper, we highlight the energy consumption differences between CSS and our current computational designs. Apart from the obvious differences in materials used between the two, the systemic nature of how CSS functions provides clues to enhance life-cycles of our current computational systems. The rapid formation and changes in the physiology of dendritic spines and their synaptic plasticity causing memory changes (ex., long-term potentiation and long-term depression) allowed us to formulate differences in the adaptability and resilience of CSS. In addition, the CSS is sustained by integrative functions of various organs, and its robustness comes from its interdependence with the circulatory system. The paper documents and analyzes quantifiable differences between the two in terms of the four measures. Our analyses point out the possibilities in the development of computational systems that are more adaptable, sustainable, energy efficient, and resilient. It concludes with the potential approaches for technological advancement through creation of more interconnected and interdependent systems to replicate the effective operation of cerebro-spinal system.

Keywords: cerebrospinal system, computer architecture, adaptability, sustainability, resilience, energy efficiency

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1344 Active Part of the Burnishing Tool Effect on the Physico-Geometric Aspect of the Superficial Layer of 100C6 and 16NC6 Steels

Authors: Tarek Litim, Ouahiba Taamallah

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Burnishing is a mechanical surface treatment that combines several beneficial effects on the two steel grades studied. The application of burnishing to the ball or to the tip favors a better roughness compared to turning. In addition, it allows the consolidation of the surface layers through work hardening phenomena. The optimal effects are closely related to the treatment parameters and the active part of the device. With an improvement of 78% on the roughness, burnishing can be defined as a finishing operation in the machining range. With a 44% gain in consolidation rate, this treatment is an effective process for material consolidation. These effects are affected by several factors. The factors V, f, P, r, and i have the most significant effects on both roughness and hardness. Ball or tip burnishing leads to the consolidation of the surface layers of both grades 100C6 and 16NC6 steels by work hardening. For each steel grade and its mechanical treatment, the rational tensile curve has been drawn. Lüdwick's law is used to better plot the work hardening curve. For both grades, a material hardening law is established. For 100C6 steel, these results show a work hardening coefficient and a consolidation rate of 0.513 and 44, respectively, compared to the surface layers processed by turning. When 16NC6 steel is processed, the work hardening coefficient is about 0.29. Hardness tests characterize well the burnished depth. The layer affected by work hardening can reach up to 0.4 mm. Simulation of the tests is of great importance to provide the details at the local scale of the material. Conventional tensile curves provide a satisfactory indication of the toughness of 100C6 and 16NC6 materials. A simulation of the tensile curves revealed good agreement between the experimental and simulation results for both steels.

Keywords: 100C6 steel, 16NC6 steel, burnishing, work hardening, roughness, hardness

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1343 Transcriptome Analysis Reveals Role of Long Non-Coding RNA NEAT1 in Dengue Patients

Authors: Abhaydeep Pandey, Shweta Shukla, Saptamita Goswami, Bhaswati Bandyopadhyay, Vishnampettai Ramachandran, Sudhanshu Vrati, Arup Banerjee

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Background: Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are the important regulators of gene expression and play important role in viral replication and disease progression. The role of lncRNA genes in the pathogenesis of Dengue virus-mediated pathogenesis is currently unknown. Methods: To gain additional insights, we utilized an unbiased RNA sequencing followed by in silico analysis approach to identify the differentially expressed lncRNA and genes that are associated with dengue disease progression. Further, we focused our study on lncRNAs NEAT1 (Nuclear Paraspeckle Assembly Transcript 1) as it was found to be differentially expressed in PBMC of dengue infected patients. Results: The expression of lncRNAs NEAT1, as compared to dengue infection (DI), was significantly down-regulated as the patients developed the complication. Moreover, pairwise analysis on follow up patients confirmed that suppression of NEAT1 expression was associated with rapid fall in platelet count in dengue infected patients. Severe dengue patients (DS) (n=18; platelet count < 20K) when recovered from infection showing high NEAT1 expression as it observed in healthy donors. By co-expression network analysis and subsequent validation, we revealed that coding gene; IFI27 expression was significantly up-regulated in severe dengue cases and negatively correlated with NEAT1 expression. To discriminate DI from dengue severe, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated. It revealed sensitivity and specificity of 100% (95%CI: 85.69 – 97.22) and area under the curve (AUC) = 0.97 for NEAT1. Conclusions: Altogether, our first observations demonstrate that monitoring NEAT1and IFI27 expression in dengue patients could be useful in understanding dengue virus-induced disease progression and may be involved in pathophysiological processes.

Keywords: dengue, lncRNA, NEAT1, transcriptome

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1342 Enhancing Robustness in Federated Learning through Decentralized Oracle Consensus and Adaptive Evaluation

Authors: Peiming Li

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This paper presents an innovative blockchain-based approach to enhance the reliability and efficiency of federated learning systems. By integrating a decentralized oracle consensus mechanism into the federated learning framework, we address key challenges of data and model integrity. Our approach utilizes a network of redundant oracles, functioning as independent validators within an epoch-based training system in the federated learning model. In federated learning, data is decentralized, residing on various participants' devices. This scenario often leads to concerns about data integrity and model quality. Our solution employs blockchain technology to establish a transparent and tamper-proof environment, ensuring secure data sharing and aggregation. The decentralized oracles, a concept borrowed from blockchain systems, act as unbiased validators. They assess the contributions of each participant using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which is crucial for evaluating the consistency of participant inputs and safeguarding against model poisoning and malicious activities. Our methodology's distinct feature is its epoch-based training. An epoch here refers to a specific training phase where data is updated and assessed for quality and relevance. The redundant oracles work in concert to validate data updates during these epochs, enhancing the system's resilience to security threats and data corruption. The effectiveness of this system was tested using the Mnist dataset, a standard in machine learning for benchmarking. Results demonstrate that our blockchain-oriented federated learning approach significantly boosts system resilience, addressing the common challenges of federated environments. This paper aims to make these advanced concepts accessible, even to those with a limited background in blockchain or federated learning. We provide a foundational understanding of how blockchain technology can revolutionize data integrity in decentralized systems and explain the role of oracles in maintaining model accuracy and reliability.

Keywords: federated learning system, block chain, decentralized oracles, hidden markov model

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1341 An Integral Sustainable Design Evaluation of the 15-Minute City and the Processes of Transferability to Cities of the Global South

Authors: Chitsanzo Isaac

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Across the world, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has challenged urban systems and policy frameworks, highlighting societal vulnerabilities and systemic inequities among many communities. Measures of confinement and social distancing to contain the Covid-19 virus have fragmented the physical and social fabric of cities. This has caused urban dwellers to reassess how they engage with their urban surroundings and maintain social ties. Urbanists have presented strategies that would allow communities to survive and even thrive, in extraordinary times of crisis like the pandemic. Tactical Urbanism, particularly the 15-Minute City, has gained popularity. It is considered a resilient approach in the global north, however, it’s transferability to the global south has been called into question. To this end, this paper poses the question: to what extent is the 15-Minute City framework integral sustainable design, and are there processes that make it adoptable by cities in the global south? This paper explores four issues using secondary quantitative data analysis and convergence analysis in the Paris and Blantyre urban regions. First, it questions how the 15-Minute City has been defined and measured, and how it impacts urban dwellers. Second, it examines the extent to which the 15-minute city performs under the lens of frameworks such as Wilber’s integral theory and Fleming’s integral sustainable design theory. Thirdly this work examines the processes that can be transferred to developing cities which foster community resilience through the perspectives of experience, behaviors, cultures, and systems. Finally, it reviews the principal ways in which a multi-perspective reality can be the basis for resilient community design and sustainable urban development. This work will shed a light on the importance of a multi-perspective reality as a means of achieving sustainable urban design goals in developing urban areas.

Keywords: 15-minute city, developing cities, global south, community resilience, integral sustainable design, systems thinking, complexity, tactical urbanism

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1340 Mathematical Model to Quantify the Phenomenon of Democracy

Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

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This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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1339 [Keynote] Implementation of Quality Control Procedures in Radiotherapy CT Simulator

Authors: B. Petrović, L. Rutonjski, M. Baucal, M. Teodorović, O. Čudić, B. Basarić

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Purpose/Objective: Radiotherapy treatment planning requires use of CT simulator, in order to acquire CT images. The overall performance of CT simulator determines the quality of radiotherapy treatment plan, and at the end, the outcome of treatment for every single patient. Therefore, it is strongly advised by international recommendations, to set up a quality control procedures for every machine involved in radiotherapy treatment planning process, including the CT scanner/ simulator. The overall process requires number of tests, which are used on daily, weekly, monthly or yearly basis, depending on the feature tested. Materials/Methods: Two phantoms were used: a dedicated phantom CIRS 062QA, and a QA phantom obtained with the CT simulator. The examined CT simulator was Siemens Somatom Definition as Open, dedicated for radiation therapy treatment planning. The CT simulator has a built in software, which enables fast and simple evaluation of CT QA parameters, using the phantom provided with the CT simulator. On the other hand, recommendations contain additional test, which were done with the CIRS phantom. Also, legislation on ionizing radiation protection requires CT testing in defined periods of time. Taking into account the requirements of law, built in tests of a CT simulator, and international recommendations, the intitutional QC programme for CT imulator is defined, and implemented. Results: The CT simulator parameters evaluated through the study were following: CT number accuracy, field uniformity, complete CT to ED conversion curve, spatial and contrast resolution, image noise, slice thickness, and patient table stability.The following limits are established and implemented: CT number accuracy limits are +/- 5 HU of the value at the comissioning. Field uniformity: +/- 10 HU in selected ROIs. Complete CT to ED curve for each tube voltage must comply with the curve obtained at comissioning, with deviations of not more than 5%. Spatial and contrast resultion tests must comply with the tests obtained at comissioning, otherwise machine requires service. Result of image noise test must fall within the limit of 20% difference of the base value. Slice thickness must meet manufacturer specifications, and patient stability with longitudinal transfer of loaded table must not differ of more than 2mm vertical deviation. Conclusion: The implemented QA tests gave overall basic understanding of CT simulator functionality and its clinical effectiveness in radiation treatment planning. The legal requirement to the clinic is to set up it’s own QA programme, with minimum testing, but it remains user’s decision whether additional testing, as recommended by international organizations, will be implemented, so to improve the overall quality of radiation treatment planning procedure, as the CT image quality used for radiation treatment planning, influences the delineation of a tumor and calculation accuracy of treatment planning system, and finally delivery of radiation treatment to a patient.

Keywords: CT simulator, radiotherapy, quality control, QA programme

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1338 Building Climate Resilience in the Health Sector in Developing Countries: Experience from Tanzania

Authors: Hussein Lujuo Mohamed

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Introduction: Public health has always been influenced by climate and weather. Changes in climate and climate variability, particularly changes in weather extremes affect the environment that provides people with clean air, food, water, shelter, and security. Tanzania is not an exception to the threats of climate change. The health sector is mostly affected due to emergence and proliferation of infectious diseases, thereby affecting health of the population and thus impacting achievement of sustainable development goals. Methodology: A desk review on documented issues pertaining to climate change and health in Tanzania was done using Google search engine. Keywords included climate change, link, health, climate initiatives. In cases where information was not available, documents from Ministry of Health, Vice Presidents Office-Environment, Local Government Authority, Ministry of Water, WHO, research, and training institutions were reviewed. Some of the reviewed documents from these institutions include policy brief papers, fieldwork activity reports, training manuals, and guidelines. Results: Six main climate resilience activities were identified in Tanzania. These were development and implementation of climate resilient water safety plans guidelines both for rural and urban water authorities, capacity building of rural and urban water authorities on implementation of climate-resilient water safety plans, and capacity strengthening of local environmental health practitioners on mainstreaming climate change and health into comprehensive council health plans. Others were vulnerability and adaptation assessment for the health sector, mainstreaming climate change in the National Health Policy, and development of risk communication strategy on climate. In addition information, education, and communication materials on climate change and to create awareness were developed aiming to sensitize and create awareness among communities on climate change issues and its effect on public health. Conclusion: Proper implementation of these interventions will help the country become resilient to many impacts of climate change in the health sector and become a good example for other least developed countries.

Keywords: climate, change, Tanzania, health

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1337 Reliability Analysis of Geometric Performance of Onboard Satellite Sensors: A Study on Location Accuracy

Authors: Ch. Sridevi, A. Chalapathi Rao, P. Srinivasulu

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The location accuracy of data products is a critical parameter in assessing the geometric performance of satellite sensors. This study focuses on reliability analysis of onboard sensors to evaluate their performance in terms of location accuracy performance over time. The analysis utilizes field failure data and employs the weibull distribution to determine the reliability and in turn to understand the improvements or degradations over a period of time. The analysis begins by scrutinizing the location accuracy error which is the root mean square (RMS) error of differences between ground control point coordinates observed on the product and the map and identifying the failure data with reference to time. A significant challenge in this study is to thoroughly analyze the possibility of an infant mortality phase in the data. To address this, the Weibull distribution is utilized to determine if the data exhibits an infant stage or if it has transitioned into the operational phase. The shape parameter beta plays a crucial role in identifying this stage. Additionally, determining the exact start of the operational phase and the end of the infant stage poses another challenge as it is crucial to eliminate residual infant mortality or wear-out from the model, as it can significantly increase the total failure rate. To address this, an approach utilizing the well-established statistical Laplace test is applied to infer the behavior of sensors and to accurately ascertain the duration of different phases in the lifetime and the time required for stabilization. This approach also helps in understanding if the bathtub curve model, which accounts for the different phases in the lifetime of a product, is appropriate for the data and whether the thresholds for the infant period and wear-out phase are accurately estimated by validating the data in individual phases with Weibull distribution curve fitting analysis. Once the operational phase is determined, reliability is assessed using Weibull analysis. This analysis not only provides insights into the reliability of individual sensors with regards to location accuracy over the required period of time, but also establishes a model that can be applied to automate similar analyses for various sensors and parameters using field failure data. Furthermore, the identification of the best-performing sensor through this analysis serves as a benchmark for future missions and designs, ensuring continuous improvement in sensor performance and reliability. Overall, this study provides a methodology to accurately determine the duration of different phases in the life data of individual sensors. It enables an assessment of the time required for stabilization and provides insights into the reliability during the operational phase and the commencement of the wear-out phase. By employing this methodology, designers can make informed decisions regarding sensor performance with regards to location accuracy, contributing to enhanced accuracy in satellite-based applications.

Keywords: bathtub curve, geometric performance, Laplace test, location accuracy, reliability analysis, Weibull analysis

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1336 The Cadence of Proximity: Indigenous Resilience as Caring for Country-in-the-City

Authors: Jo Anne Rey

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Caring for Country (Ngurrain Dharug language) is core to Aboriginal identity, Law/Lore, practice, and resilience within the continent called ‘Australia’. It is the basis of thousands of years of sustainability. However, when Ngurra is a city known as Sydney, due to 235 years of colonial impact, caring for the Country is limited, being controlled by the State and private ownership of the land title. Recent research indicates that localised Indigenous activism is most successful when community members are geographically proximate to the presences and places of connection, caring, and belonging. This article frames these findings through the cadence that proximity provides. This presentation is centred on the proximate agency that is being exercised by Dharug community through three significant sites within the Sydney basin. Those sites include, firstly, Shaw’s Creek Aboriginal Place, at the foot of the Blue Mountains in far western Sydney. Second inclusion is the site of Blacktown Native Institution, that was the part of the authoritarian colonial governance of British Governor Lachlan Macquarie (after who Macquarie University is named), which saw the beginnings of the removal of children from their families and culture to ‘civilize’ them. The third site is that of the so-called Brown’s Waterhole in the State government administered Lane Cove National Park. Each of these sites is being activated through Dharug and, more broadly, Aboriginalways of knowing, doing, and being. These ways involvethe land, water, wind, and star-based ecologies interwoven with traditional transgenerational storying of the presences (Ancestral and spiritual) creating them. Activations include, but are not limited to, the return of cultural fire for reviving plants, soils, animals, and birds. These fire practices have traditionally been at the basis of sustainable, regenerative biodiversity. These practices involve the literacy of reading Ngurra and the seasonal interactions across the ecologies. Together, they both care for the Country and support humanity, and have done so across thousands of years. However, when the cost of real-estate and rental accommodation prevents community members from being able to live on Dharug Ngurra when bureaucratic governance restricts and/or excludes traditional custodial relationships, and when private treaty land title destroys the presences and places while disconnecting people from their Ancestral practices, it becomes clear that caring for Country is only possible when the community can afford to live nearby. Recognising the cadence of proximityas the agency that underpinscaring for Country-in-the-city, sustainable change opportunities don’t have to only focus on regional and remote areas. Urban-based Aboriginal relationality offers an alternative to the unsustainable practices that underpin human-centric disconnection. Weaving Indigenous cadence offers opportunities for sustainable futures even when facing the extremes of climate changing catastrophes.

Keywords: australian aboriginal, biocultural knowledges, climate change, dharug ngurra, sustainability, resilience

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1335 Fijian Women’s Role in Disaster Risk Management: Climate Change

Authors: Priyatma Singh, Manpreet Kaur

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Climate change is progressively being identified as a global crisis and this has immediate repercussions for Fiji Islands due to its geographical location being prone to natural disasters. In the Pacific, it is common to find significant differences between men and women, in terms of their roles and responsibilities. In the pursuit of prudent preparedness before disasters, Fijian women’s engagement is constrained due to socially constructed roles and expectation of women here in Fiji. This vulnerability is aggravated by viewing women as victims, rather than as key people who have vital information of their society, economy, and environment, as well as useful skills, which, when recognized and used, can be effective in disaster risk reduction. The focus of this study on disaster management is to outline ways in which Fijian women can be actively engaged in disaster risk management, articulating in decision-making, negating the perceived ideology of women’s constricted roles in Fiji and unveiling social constraints that limit women’s access to practical disaster management strategic plan. This paper outlines the importance of gender mainstreaming in disaster risk reduction and the ways of mainstreaming gender based on a literature review. It analyses theoretical study of academic literature as well as papers and reports produced by various national and international institutions and explores ways to better inform and engage women for climate change per ser disaster management in Fiji. The empowerment of women is believed to be a critical element in constructing disaster resilience as women are often considered to be the designers of community resilience at the local level. Gender mainstreaming as a way of bringing a gender perspective into climate related disasters can be applied to distinguish the varying needs and capacities of women, and integrate them into climate change adaptation strategies. This study will advocate women articulation in disaster risk management, thus giving equal standing to females in Fiji and also identify the gaps and inform national and local Disaster Risk Management authorities to implement processes that enhance gender equality and women’s empowerment towards a more equitable and effective disaster practice.

Keywords: disaster risk management, climate change, gender mainstreaming, women empowerment

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1334 A Scoping Study and Stakeholder Consultation on Mental Health Determinants among Arab Immigrants and Refugees in North America

Authors: Sarah Elshahat, Tina Moffat

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Suboptimal mental health is a considerable global public health challenge that leads to considerable inequalities worldwide. Newcomers are at elevated risk for developing mental health issues as a result of social exclusion, stigmatization, racism, unequal employment opportunities, and discrimination. The problem can be especially serious amongst Arabic-speaking immigrants and refugees (ASIR) whose mental wellness may have already been affected by exposure to political violence, persecution, hunger or war in their countries of origin. A scoping review was conducted to investigate pre- and post-migration mental health determinants amongst ASIR in North America (the U.S. and Canada), who are a rapidly growing population in both regions. Pertinent peer-reviewed papers and grey literature were located through a systematic search of five electronic databases (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Anthropology Plus, and Sociology Database). A stakeholder consultation was implemented to validate the analyzed findings of the included 44 studies. About 80% of the studies were carried out in the US, underscoring a lack of Canadian ASIR-mental health research. A gap in qualitative, mixed-method, and longitudinal research was detected, where approximately two-thirds of the studies adopted a cross-sectional method. Pre-migration determinants of mental health were related to the political unrest, violence and armed conflict in the Arab world, increasing post-traumatic stress disorder and psychological distress levels among ASIR. English language illiteracy and generational variations in acculturation patterns were major post-migration mental health triggering factors. Exposure to domestic violence, stigmatization, poverty, racialization, and harassment were significant post-migration mental health determinants that stem from social inequalities, triggering depression, and distress amongst ASIR. Family conflicts linked to child-rearing and gendered norms were considered as both pre- and post-migration mental health triggering factors. Most post-migration mental health protective factors were socio-culturally related and included the maintenance of positive ethnic identity, faith, family support, and community cohesion. Individual resilience, articulated as self-esteem and hope, was a significant negative predictor of depression and psychological distress among ASIR. Community-engaged, mixed-methods, and longitudinal studies are required to address the current gap in mental health research among ASIR in North America. A more thorough determination of potential mental health triggers and protective factors would help inform the development of mental wellness and resilience-promoting programs that are culturally sensitive to ASIR. On the policy level, the Health in All Policies framework of the World Health Organization can be potentially useful for addressing social and health inequalities among ASIR, reducing mental health challenges.

Keywords: depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, psychological distress, resilience

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1333 Stress Reduction Techniques for First Responders: Scientifically Proven Methods

Authors: Esther Ranero Carrazana, Maria Karla Ramirez Valdes

Abstract:

First responders, including firefighters, police officers, and emergency medical personnel, are frequently exposed to high-stress scenarios that significantly increase their risk of mental health issues such as depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Their work involves life-threatening situations, witnessing suffering, and making critical decisions under pressure, all contributing to psychological strain. The objectives of this research on "Stress Reduction Techniques for First Responders: Scientifically Proven Methods" are as follows. One of them is to evaluate the effectiveness of stress reduction techniques. The primary objective is to assess the efficacy of various scientifically proven stress reduction techniques explicitly tailored for first responders. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) Training, Interoception and Exteroception, Sensory Integration, and Body Perception Awareness are scrutinized for their ability to mitigate stress-related symptoms. Furthermore, we evaluate and enhance the understanding of stress mechanisms in first responders by exploring how different techniques influence the physiological and psychological responses to stress. The study aims to deepen the understanding of stress mechanisms in high-risk professions. Additionally, the study promotes psychological resilience by seeking to identify and recommend methods that can significantly enhance the psychological resilience of first responders, thereby supporting their mental health and operational efficiency in high-stress environments. Guide training and policy development is an additional objective to provide evidence-based recommendations that can be used to guide training programs and policy development aimed at improving the mental health and well-being of first responders. Lastly, the study aims to contribute valuable insights to the existing body of knowledge in stress management, specifically tailored to the unique needs of first responders. This study involved a comprehensive literature review assessing the effectiveness of various stress reduction techniques tailored for first responders. Techniques evaluated include Heart Rate Variability (HRV) Training, Interoception and Exteroception, Sensory Integration, and Body Perception Awareness, focusing on their ability to alleviate stress-related symptoms. The review indicates promising results for several stress reduction methods. HRV Training demonstrates the potential to reflect stress vulnerability and enhance physiological and behavioral flexibility. Interoception and Exteroception help modulate the stress response by enhancing awareness of the body's internal state and its interaction with the environment. Sensory integration plays a crucial role in adaptive responses to stress by focusing on individual senses and their integration. Therefore, body perception awareness addresses stress and anxiety through enhanced body perception and mindfulness. The evaluated techniques show significant potential in reducing stress and improving the mental health of first responders. Implementing these scientifically supported methods into routine training could significantly enhance their psychological resilience and operational effectiveness in high-stress environments.

Keywords: first responders, HRV training, mental health, sensory integration, stress reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 37
1332 Urinary Exosome miR-30c-5p as a Biomarker for Early-Stage Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma

Authors: Shangqing Song, Bin Xu, Yajun Cheng, Zhong Wang

Abstract:

miRNAs derived from exosomes exist in a body fluid such as urine were regarded as potential biomarkers for various human cancers diagnosis and prognosis, as mature miRNAs can be steadily preserved by exosomes. However, its potential value in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) diagnosis and prognosis remains unclear. In the present study, differentially expressed miRNAs from urinal exosomes were identified by next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology. The 16 differentially expressed miRNAs were identified between ccRCC patients and healthy donors. To explore the specific diagnosis biomarker of ccRCC, we validated these urinary exosomes from 70 early-stage renal cancer patients, 30 healthy people and other urinary system cancers, including 30 early-stage prostate cancer patients and 30 early-stage bladder cancer patients by qRT-PCR. The results showed that urinary exosome miR-30c-5p could be stably amplified and meanwhile the expression of miR-30c-5p has no significant difference between other urinary system cancers and healthy control, however, expression level of miR-30c-5p in urinary exosomal of ccRCC patients was lower than healthy people and receiver operation characterization (ROC) curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) values was 0.8192 (95% confidence interval was 0.7388-0.8996, P= 0.0000). In addition, up-regulating miR-30c-5p expression could inhibit renal cell carcinoma cells growth. Lastly, HSP5A was found as a direct target gene of miR-30c-5p. HSP5A depletion reversed the promoting effect of ccRCC growth casued by miR-30c-5p inhibitor, respectively. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that urinary exosomal miR-30c-5p is readily accessible as diagnosis biomarker of early-stage ccRCC, and miR-30c-5p might modulate the expression of HSPA5, which correlated with the progression of ccRCC.

Keywords: clear cell renal cell carcinoma, exosome, HSP5A, miR-30c-5p

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1331 Evaluation of Hepatic Metabolite Changes for Differentiation Between Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis and Simple Hepatic Steatosis Using Long Echo-Time Proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy

Authors: Tae-Hoon Kim, Kwon-Ha Yoon, Hong Young Jun, Ki-Jong Kim, Young Hwan Lee, Myeung Su Lee, Keum Ha Choi, Ki Jung Yun, Eun Young Cho, Yong-Yeon Jeong, Chung-Hwan Jun

Abstract:

Purpose: To assess the changes of hepatic metabolite for differentiation between non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and simple steatosis on proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) in both humans and animal model. Methods: The local institutional review board approved this study and subjects gave written informed consent. 1H-MRS measurements were performed on a localized voxel of the liver using a point-resolved spectroscopy (PRESS) sequence and hepatic metabolites of alanine (Ala), lactate/triglyceride (Lac/TG), and TG were analyzed in NASH, simple steatosis and control groups. The group difference was tested with the ANOVA and Tukey’s post-hoc tests, and diagnostic accuracy was tested by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. The associations between metabolic concentration and pathologic grades or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) activity scores were assessed by the Pearson’s correlation. Results: Patient with NASH showed the elevated Ala(p<0.001), Lac/TG(p < 0.001), TG(p < 0.05) concentration when compared with patients who had simple steatosis and healthy controls. The NASH patients were higher levels in Ala(mean±SEM, 52.5±8.3 vs 2.0±0.9; p < 0.001), Lac/TG(824.0±168.2 vs 394.1±89.8; p < 0.05) than simple steatosis. The area under the ROC curve to distinguish NASH from simple steatosis was 1.00 (95% confidence interval; 1.00, 1.00) with Ala and 0.782 (95% confidence interval; 0.61, 0.96) with Lac/TG. The Ala and Lac/TG levels were well correlated with steatosis grade, lobular inflammation, and NAFLD activity scores. The metabolic changes in human were reproducible to a mice model induced by streptozotocin injection and a high-fat diet. Conclusion: 1H-MRS would be useful for differentiation of patients with NASH and simple hepatic steatosis.

Keywords: non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 1H MR spectroscopy, hepatic metabolites

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1330 Exercise and Social Activities for Elderly with an Impairment Who Are Living Alone in the Community: Effects and Influencing Factors of a Dutch Program

Authors: Renate Verkaik, Mieke Rijken, Hennie Boeije

Abstract:

Elderly who are living alone and who are having one or more impairments are vulnerable for a loss of wellbeing and institutionalization. Physical exercise and social activities together with peers have the potential to make them more resilient. The Dutch program ‘More Resilience, Longer at Home’ initiated by FNO funded 126 local projects to stimulate vulnerable older citizens to participate in exercise and social activities, and as such to improve wellbeing and independent living. The program evaluation addressed the following questions: (1) what are the effects of the program on older (65+) participants exercise behavior, social activities and what is the relationship with wellbeing?, (2) which factors contribute to successful implementation of the projects and their outcomes? A mixed method approach was used. Effects on participants were assessed with a short survey, containing questions on exercise, social engagement, daily functioning, loneliness and life satisfaction. Results of the participants were compared with those of a reference group from the Dutch national population. Perceived influencing factors were investigated with a questionnaire for project leaders. This questionnaire was based on site visits and interviews with project leaders, volunteers and participating elderly. Preliminary results show that social engagement of the participating elderly rises significantly (p ≤ .05) as do their exercise levels and daily functioning. They experience less social loneliness, but not less emotional loneliness. Additionally, there is a positive association between daily functioning and life satisfaction and between exercise and life satisfaction. Perceived influencing factors that contribute to successful implementation of the projects can be categorized in 4 types: (1) characteristics of the activities; (2) profiles of the involved staff (professionals and volunteers), (3) characteristics of the organization, (4) the social political environment. Conclusions are that local projects have been successful in stimulating older citizens to participate in exercise and social activities. Multiple factors need to be addressed to ensure sustainability and scaling-up of the good practices.

Keywords: elderly living alone in the community, exercise and social activities, resilience, quality of life

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1329 Biases in Numerically Invariant Joint Signatures

Authors: Reza Aghayan

Abstract:

This paper illustrates that numerically invariant joint signatures suffer biases in the resulting signatures. Next, we classify the arising biases as Bias Type 1 and Bias Type 2 and show how they can be removed.

Keywords: Euclidean and affine geometries, differential invariant signature curves, numerically invariant joint signatures, numerical analysis, numerical bias, curve analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 597
1328 A Qualitative Examination of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Wellbeing of Undergraduate Students in Ontario

Authors: Soumya Mishra, Elena Neiterman

Abstract:

Aligned with the growing interest in the impact of the pandemic on academic experiences of university students, this study aimed to examine the challenges Canadian undergraduate students experienced during the university closures due to COVID-19. Using qualitative methodological approach, the study utilized semi-structured interviews conducted with 20 undergraduate students enrolled in an Ontario university to explore their thoughts and experience regarding online learning during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, from January 2021 to March 2021. The interviews yielded four major themes with the following associated subthemes: Personal Challenges Associated with Adapting to the Pandemic (Change in the Type of Stress Experienced, Unique Impact on Certain Groups of Students, Decreased Motivation, Crucial Role of Resilience), Social Challenges Associated with Adapting to the Pandemic (Increased Loneliness, Challenges Faced while Communicating, Perception of Group work, Role of Living Conditions), Challenges associated with Accessing University Resources (Crucial Role of Professors, Perception of Virtual Events, Importance of Physical Spaces). Overall, the analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic fostered resilience and psychological flexibility amongst all students. However, the mental health and social wellbeing of students deteriorated during the COVID-19 pandemic and they reported experiencing chronic stress, anxiety and loneliness. International students, first year and final year students experienced a unique set of challenges. It was hard for participants in our study to make strong new connections with their classmates and maintain existing friendships with their peers. The importance of professors in facilitating learning was amplified in the online environment due to the lack of in-person interaction with other students. Despite these challenges, most participants reported that they received high grades during online learning. The findings from this study could be helpful for organizations and individuals working towards fostering the wellbeing of undergraduate students. They can also help in making post-secondary institutions more resilient to future emergencies by creating contingency plans regarding online instructions and risk management techniques.

Keywords: Canadian, COVID-19, university students, wellbeing

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1327 Canada's "Flattened Curve": A Geospatial Temporal Analysis of Canada's Amelioration of the Sars-COV-2 Pandemic Through Coordinated Government Intervention

Authors: John Ahluwalia

Abstract:

As an affluent first-world nation, Canada took swift and comprehensive action during the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic compared to other countries in the same socio-economic cohort. The United States has stumbled to overcome obstacles most developed nations have faced, which has led to significantly more per capita cases and deaths. The initial outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred in the US and Canada within days of each other and posed similar potentially catastrophic threats to public health, the economy, and governmental stability. On a macro level, events that take place in the US have a direct impact on Canada. For example, both countries tend to enter and exit economic recessions at approximately the same time, they are each other’s largest trading partners, and their currencies are inexorably linked. Why is it that Canada has not shared the same fate as the US (and many other nations) that have realized much worse outcomes relative to the COVID-19 pandemic? Variables intrinsic to Canada’s national infrastructure have been instrumental in the country’s efforts to flatten the curve of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Canada’s coordinated multi-level governmental effort has allowed it to create and enforce policies related to COVID-19 at both the national and provincial levels. Canada’s policy of universal healthcare is another variable. Health care and public health measures are enforced on a provincial level, and it is within each province’s jurisdiction to dictate standards for public safety based on scientific evidence. Rather than introducing confusion and the possibility of competition for resources such as PPE and vaccines, Canada’s multi-level chain of government authority has provided consistent policies supporting national public health and local delivery of medical care. This paper will demonstrate that the coordinated efforts on provincial and federal levels have been the linchpin in Canada’s relative success in containing the deadly spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, Canada, GIS, temporal analysis, ESRI

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
1326 Sponge Urbanism as a Resilient City Design to Overcome Urban Flood Risk, for the Case of Aluva, Kerala, India

Authors: Gayathri Pramod, Sheeja K. P.

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Urban flooding has been seen rising in cities for the past few years. This rise in urban flooding is the result of increasing urbanization and increasing climate change. A resilient city design focuses on 'living with water'. This means that the city is capable of accommodating the floodwaters without having to risk any loss of lives or properties. The resilient city design incorporates green infrastructure, river edge treatment, open space design, etc. to form a city that functions as a whole for resilience. Sponge urbanism is a recent method for building resilient cities and is founded by China in 2014. Sponge urbanism is the apt method for resilience building for a tropical town like Aluva of Kerala. Aluva is a tropical town that experiences rainfall of about 783 mm per month during the rainy season. Aluva is an urbanized town which faces the risk of urban flooding and riverine every year due to the presence of Periyar River in the town. Impervious surfaces and hard construction and developments contribute towards flood risk by posing as interference for a natural flow and natural filtration of water into the ground. This type of development is seen in Aluva also. Aluva is designed in this research as a town that have resilient strategies of sponge city and which focusses on natural methods of construction. The flood susceptibility of Aluva is taken into account to design the spaces for sponge urbanism and in turn, reduce the flood susceptibility for the town. Aluva is analyzed, and high-risk zones for development are identified through studies. These zones are designed to withstand the risk of flooding. Various catchment areas are identified according to the natural flow of water, and then these catchment areas are designed to act as a public open space and as detention ponds in case of heavy rainfall. Various development guidelines, according to land use, is also prescribed, which help in increasing the green cover of the town. Aluva is then designed to be a completely flood-adapted city or sponge city according to the guidelines and interventions.

Keywords: climate change, flooding, resilient city, sponge city, sponge urbanism, urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
1325 Coffee Consumption and Glucose Metabolism: a Systematic Review of Clinical Trials

Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Jose G. Dórea, Teresa H. M. da Costa

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Objective: Epidemiological data shows an inverse association of coffee consumption with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the clinical effects of coffee consumption on the glucose metabolism biomarkers remain controversial. Thus, this paper reviews clinical trials that evaluated the effects of coffee consumption on glucose metabolism. Research Design and Methods: We identified studies published until December 2014 by searching electronic databases and reference lists. We included randomized clinical trials which the intervention group received caffeinated and/or decaffeinated coffee and the control group received water or placebo treatments and measured biomarkers of glucose metabolism. The Jadad Score was applied to evaluate the quality of the studies whereas studies that scored ≥ 3 points were considered for the analyses. Results: Seven clinical trials (total of 237 subjects) were analyzed involving adult healthy, overweight and diabetic subjects. The studies were divided in short-term (1 to 3h) and long-term (2 to 16 weeks) duration. The results for short-term studies showed that caffeinated coffee consumption may increase the area under the curve for glucose response, while for long-term studies caffeinated coffee may improve the glycemic metabolism by reducing the glucose curve and increasing insulin response. These results seem to show that the benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term as has been shown in the reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. Nevertheless, until the relationship between long-term coffee consumption and type 2 diabetes mellitus is better understood and any mechanism involved identified, it is premature to make claims about coffee preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: The findings suggest that caffeinated coffee may impairs glucose metabolism in short-term but in the long-term the studies indicate reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. More clinical trials with comparable methodology are needed to unravel this paradox.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

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1324 Multi-Indicator Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Trends in Ethiopia: Implications for Dry Land Agriculture and Food Security

Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

Abstract:

Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
1323 Estimation of Fragility Curves Using Proposed Ground Motion Selection and Scaling Procedure

Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar

Abstract:

Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 583
1322 Evaluation of the Antibacterial Effects of Turmeric Oleoresin, Capsicum Oleoresin and Garlic Essential Oil against Salmonella enterica Typhimurium

Authors: Jun Hyung Lee, Robin B. Guevarra, Jin Ho Cho, Bo-Ra Kim, Jiwon Shin, Doo Wan Kim, Young Hwa Kim, Minho Song, Hyeun Bum Kim

Abstract:

Salmonella is one of the most important swine pathogens, causing acute or chronic digestive diseases, such as enteritis. The acute form of enteritis is common in young pigs of 2-4 months of age. Salmonellosis in swine causes a huge economic burden to swine industry by reducing production. Therefore, it is necessary that swine industries should strive to decrease Salmonellosis in pigs in order to reduce economic losses. Thus, we tested three types of natural plant extracts(PEs) to evaluate antibacterial effects against Salmonella enterica Typhimurium isolated from the piglet with Salmonellosis. Three PEs including turmeric oleoresin (containing curcumin 79 to 85%), capsicum oleoresin (containing capsaicin 40%-40.1%), and garlic essential oil (100% natural garlic) were tested using the direct contact agar diffusion test, minimum inhibitory concentration test, growth curve assay, and heat stability test. The tests were conducted with PEs at each concentration of 2.5%, 5%, and 10%. For the heat stability test, PEs with 10% concentration were incubated at each 4, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 °C for 1 hour; then the direct contact agar diffusion test was used. For the positive and negative controls, 0.5N HCl and 1XPBS were used. All the experiments were duplicated. In the direct contact agar diffusion test, garlic essential oil with 2.5%, 5%, and 10% concentration showed inhibit zones of 1.5cm, 2.7cm, and 2.8cm diameters compared to that of 3.5cm diameter for 0.5N HCl. The minimum inhibited concentration of garlic essential oil was 2.5%. Growth curve assay showed that the garlic essential oil was able to inhibit Salmonella growth significantly after 4hours. The garlic essential oil retained the ability to inhibit Salmonella growth after heat treatment at each temperature. However, turmeric and capsicum oleoresins were not able to significantly inhibit Salmonella growth by all the tests. Even though further in-vivo tests will be needed to verify effects of garlic essential oil for the Salmonellosis prevention for piglets, our results showed that the garlic essential oil could be used as a potential natural agent to prevent Salmonellosis in swine.

Keywords: garlic essential oil, pig, salmonellosis, Salmonella enterica

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1321 Evaluation of the Antibacterial Effects of Turmeric Oleoresin, Capsicum Oleoresin and Garlic Essential Oil against Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli

Authors: Jun Hyung Lee, Robin B. Guevarra, Jin Ho Cho, Bo-Ra Kim, Jiwon Shin, Doo Wan Kim, Young Hwa Kim, Minho Song, Hyeun Bum Kim

Abstract:

Colibacillosis is one of the major health problems in young piglets ultimately resulting in their death, and it is common especially in young piglets. For the swine industry, colibacillosis is one of the important economic burdens. Therefore, it is necessary for the swine industries to prevent Colibacillosis in piglets in order to reduce economic losses. Thus, we tested three types of natural plant extracts (PEs) to evaluate antibacterial effects against Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) isolated from the piglet. Three PEs including turmeric oleoresin (containing curcumin 79 to 85%), capsicum oleoresin (containing capsaicin 40%-40.1%), and garlic essential oil (100% natural garlic) were tested using the direct contact agar diffusion test, minimum inhibitory concentration test, growth curve assay, and heat stability test. The tests were conducted with PEs at each concentration of 2.5%, 5%, and 10%. For the heat stability test, PEs with 10% concentration were incubated at each 4, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 °C for 1 hour, then the direct contact agar diffusion test was used. For the positive and negative controls, 0.5N HCl and 1XPBS were used. All the experiments were duplicated. In the direct contact agar diffusion test, garlic essential oil with 2.5%, 5%, and 10% concentration showed inhibit zones of 1.1cm, 3.0cm, and 3.6 cm in diameters compared to that of 3.5cm diameter for 0.5N HCl. The minimum inhibited concentration of garlic essential oil was 2.5%. Growth curve assay showed that the garlic essential oil was able to inhibit STEC growth significantly after 4 hours. The garlic essential oil retained the ability to inhibit STEC growth after heat treatment at each temperature. However, turmeric and capsicum oleoresins were not able to significantly inhibit STEC growth by all the tests. Even though further tests using the piglets will be required to evaluate effects of garlic essential oil for the Colibacillosis prevention for piglets, our results showed that the garlic essential oil could be used as a potential natural agent to prevent Colibacillosis in swine.

Keywords: garlic essential oil, pig, Colibacillosis, Escherichia coli

Procedia PDF Downloads 258