Search results for: Monte Carlo simulated

Authors: Narendra Nath Patra

Abstract:

Several recent studies reinforce the existence of a thick molecular disc in galaxies along with the dynamically cold thin disc. Assuming a two-component molecular disc, we model the disc of NGC 6946 as a four-component system consists of stars, HI, thin disc molecular gas, and thick disc molecular gas in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Following, we set up the joint Poisson-Boltzmann equation of hydrostatic equilibrium and solve it numerically to obtain a three-dimensional density distribution of different baryonic components. Using the density solutions and the observed rotation curve, we further build a three-dimensional dynamical model of the molecular disc and consecutively produce simulated CO spectral cube and spectral width profile. We find that the simulated spectral width profiles distinguishably differs for different assumed thick disc molecular gas fraction. Several CO spectral width profiles are then produced for different assumed thick disc molecular gas fractions and compared with the observed one to obtain the best fit thick disc molecular gas fraction profile. We find that the thick disc molecular gas fraction in NGC 6946 largely remains constant across its molecular disc with a mean value of 0.70 +/- 0.09. We also estimate the amount of extra-planar molecular gas in NGC 6946. We find 60% of the total molecular gas is extra-planar at the central region, whereas this fraction reduces to ~ 35% at the edge of the molecular disc. With our method, for the first time, we estimate the thick disc molecular gas fraction as a function of radius in an external galaxy with sub-kpc resolution.

Keywords: galaxies: kinematics and dynamic, galaxies: spiral, galaxies: structure , ISM: molecules, molecular data

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Tzu-Hsuan Lei, Shu-Chien Wu, Kuang-Che Lo, Shu-Chi Liu, Yu-Cheng Liu

Abstract:

The focus of this study was on the effects of air propagation associated with vented holes on acoustic resistance properties. A cylindrical hole with diameter and depth of 0.7 mm and 1.0 mm, respectively, was the research target. By constructing a finite element analytical model of its sound field properties, the acoustic-specific airflow resistance relationships were obtained for the differences in sound pressure and flow velocity at the two ends of this vented hole. In addition, the acoustic properties of this vented hole were included in the in-ear earphone simulation model to complete the sound pressure curve simulation analysis of the in-ear earphone system with a vented hole of corresponding size. Then, the simulation results were compared with actual measurements obtained from the standard system. Based on the results, when the in-ear earphone vented hole simulation model considered the simulated specific airflow resistance values of this cylindrical hole, the overall simulated sound pressure performance was highly consistent with that of measured values. The difference in the first peak values of sound pressure at mid-to-low frequencies was reduced from 5.64% when the simulation model did not consider the specific airflow resistance of the cylindrical hole to 1.18%, and the accuracy of the overall simulation was around 70%. This indicates the importance of the acoustic resistance properties of vented holes. Moreover, as specific airflow resistance values were able to be further quantified, the accuracy of the entire in-ear earphone simulation was ultimately and effectively elevated.

Keywords: specific airflow resistance, vented holes, in-ear earphone, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Samuel Reisman

Abstract:

Background: Comparative rankings are increasingly used to evaluate health care systems. These rankings combine discrete attribute rankings into a composite overall ranking. Health care equity is a component of overall rankings, but excelling in other categories can counterbalance low inequity grades. Highly ranked inequitable health care would commend systems that disregard human rights. We simulated the ranking of a maximally inequitable health care system using a published, influential ranking methodology. Methods: We used The Commonwealth Fund’s ranking of eleven health care systems to simulate the rank of a maximally inequitable system. Eighty performance indicators were simulated, assuming maximal ineptitude in equity benchmarks. Maximal rankings in all non-equity subcategories were assumed. Subsequent stepwise simulations lowered all non-equity rank positions by one. Results: The maximally non-equitable health care system ranked first overall. Three subsequent stepwise simulations, lowering non-equity rankings by one, each resulted in an overall ranking within the top three. Discussion: Our results demonstrate that grossly inequitable health care systems can rank highly in comparative health care system rankings. These findings challenge the validity of ranking methodologies that subsume equity under broader benchmarks. We advocate limiting maximum overall rankings of health care systems to their individual equity rankings. Such limits are logical given the insignificance of health care system improvements to those lacking adequate health care.

Keywords: global health, health equity, healthcare systems, international health

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam

Abstract:

In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.

Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: Mahmoud Zakeri Niri, Saber Moazami, Arman Abdollahipour, Hossein Ghalkhani

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to hydrological evaluation of four widely-used satellite precipitation products named PERSIANN, TMPA-3B42V7, TMPA-3B42RT, and CMORPH over Zarinehrood basin in Iran. For this aim, at first, daily streamflow of Sarough-cahy river of Zarinehrood basin was simulated using IHACRES rainfall-runoff model with daily rain gauge and temperature as input data from 1988 to 2008. Then, the model was calibrated in two different periods through comparison the simulated discharge with the observed one at hydrometric stations. Moreover, in order to evaluate the performance of satellite precipitation products in streamflow simulation, the calibrated model was validated using daily satellite rainfall estimates from the period of 2003 to 2008. The obtained results indicated that TMPA-3B42V7 with CC of 0.69, RMSE of 5.93 mm/day, MAE of 4.76 mm/day, and RBias of -5.39% performs better simulation of streamflow than those PERSIANN and CMORPH over the study area. It is noteworthy that in Iran, the availability of ground measuring station data is very limited because of the sparse density of hydro-meteorological networks. On the other hand, large spatial and temporal variability of precipitations and lack of a reliable and extensive observing system are the most important challenges to rainfall analysis, flood prediction, and other hydrological applications in this country.

Keywords: hydrological evaluation, IHACRES, satellite precipitation product, streamflow simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Randy Molejona Jr., Elaine Nicole Saquin

Abstract:

The area around the Ajuy river in Iloilo, Philippines, is currently being mined for manganese ore, and river water samples exceed the maximum manganese contaminant level set by US-EPA. At the same time, the surplus of local bivalve waste is another environmental concern. Synthetic chemical treatment compromises water quality, leaving toxic residues. Therefore, an alternative treatment process is biosorption or using the physical and chemical properties of biomass to adsorb heavy metals in contaminated water. The study aims to extract crude chitin from shell wastes of Bractechlamys vexillum, Perna viridis, and Placuna placenta and determine its adsorption capacity on manganese in simulated and actual mine water. Crude chitin was obtained by pulverization, deproteinization, demineralization, and decolorization of shells. Biosorption by flocculation followed 5 g: 50 mL chitin-to-water ratio. Filtrates were analyzed using MP-AES after 24 hours. In both actual and simulated mine water, respectively, B. vexillum yielded the highest adsorption percentage of 91.43% and 99.58%, comparable to P. placenta of 91.43% and 99.37%, while significantly different to P. viridis of -57.14% and 31.53%, (p < 0.05). FT-IR validated the presence of chitin in shells based on carbonyl-containing functional groups at peaks 1530-1560 cm⁻¹ and 1660-1680 cm⁻¹. SEM micrographs showed the amorphous and non-homogenous structure of chitin. Thus, crude chitin from B. vexillum and P. placenta can be bio-sorbents for water treatment of manganese-impacted effluents, and promote appropriate waste management of local bivalves.

Keywords: biosorption, chitin, FT-IR, mine effluents, SEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: G. Kabir, A. M. Mohammed, M. A. Bawa

Abstract:

The paper presents corrosion behaviors of Naval Brass, aluminum alloy and carbon steel in simulated seawater under stagnant conditions. The behaviors were characterized on the variation of chloride ions concentration in the range of 3.0wt% and 3.5wt% and exposure time. The weight loss coupon-method immersion technique was employed. The weight loss for the various alloys was measured. Based on the obtained results, the corrosion rate was determined. It was found that the corrosion rates of the various alloys are related to the chloride ions concentrations, exposure time and kinetics of passive film formation of the various alloys. Carbon steel, suffers corrosion many folds more than Naval Brass. This indicated that the alloy exhibited relatively strong resistance to corrosion in the exposure environment of the seawater. Whereas, the aluminum alloy exhibited an excellent and beneficial resistance to corrosion more than the Naval Brass studied. Despite the prohibitive cost, Naval Brass and aluminum alloy, indicated to have beneficial corrosion behavior that can offer wide range of application in seashore operations. The corrosion kinetics parameters indicated that the corrosion reaction is limited by diffusion mass transfer of the corrosion reaction elements and not by reaction controlled.

Keywords: alloys, chloride ions concentration, corrosion kinetics, corrosion rate, diffusion mass transfer, exposure time, seawater, weight loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Cheng-Yang Lee, Petrus Tang, Tzu-Hao Chang

Abstract:

Copy number variations (CNVs) have played an important role in many kinds of human diseases, such as Autism, Schizophrenia and a number of cancers. Many diseases are found in genome coding regions and whole exome sequencing (WES) is a cost-effective and powerful technology in detecting variants that are enriched in exons and have potential applications in clinical setting. Although several algorithms have been developed to detect CNVs using WES and compared with other algorithms for finding the most suitable methods using their own samples, there were not consistent datasets across most of algorithms to evaluate the ability of CNV detection. On the other hand, most of algorithms is using command line interface that may greatly limit the analysis capability of many laboratories. We create a series of simulated WES datasets from UCSC hg19 chromosome 22, and then evaluate the CNV detective ability of 19 algorithms from OMICtools database using our simulated WES datasets. We compute the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in each algorithm for validation of the exome-derived CNVs. After comparison of 19 algorithms from OMICtools database, we construct a platform to install all of the algorithms in a virtual machine like VirtualBox which can be established conveniently in local computers, and then create a simple script that can be easily to use for detecting CNVs using algorithms selected by users. We also build a table to elaborate on many kinds of events, such as input requirement, CNV detective ability, for all of the algorithms that can provide users a specification to choose optimum algorithms.

Keywords: whole exome sequencing, copy number variations, omictools, pipeline

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Hameed Rukayat Opeyemi, Pericles Pilidis Pagone Emmanuele, Agbadede Roupa, Allison Isaiah

Abstract:

Climate change represents one of the single most challenging problems facing the world today. According to the National Oceanic and Administrative Association, Atmospheric temperature rose almost 25% since 1958, Artic sea ice has shrunk 40% since 1959 and global sea levels have risen more than 5.5cm since 1990. Power plants are the major culprits of GHG emission to the atmosphere. Several technologies have been proposed to reduce the amount of GHG emitted to the atmosphere from power plant, one of which is the less researched Advanced zero-emission power plant. The advanced zero emission power plants make use of mixed conductive membrane (MCM) reactor also known as oxygen transfer membrane (OTM) for oxygen transfer. The MCM employs membrane separation process. The membrane separation process was first introduced in 1899 when Walter Hermann Nernst investigated electric current between metals and solutions. He found that when a dense ceramic is heated, the current of oxygen molecules move through it. In the bid to curb the amount of GHG emitted to the atmosphere, the membrane separation process was applied to the field of power engineering in the low carbon cycle known as the Advanced zero emission power plant (AZEP cycle). The AZEP cycle was originally invented by Norsk Hydro, Norway and ABB Alstom power (now known as Demag Delaval Industrial turbomachinery AB), Sweden. The AZEP drew a lot of attention because its ability to capture ~100% CO2 and also boasts of about 30-50% cost reduction compared to other carbon abatement technologies, the penalty in efficiency is also not as much as its counterparts and crowns it with almost zero NOx emissions due to very low nitrogen concentrations in the working fluid. The advanced zero emission power plants differ from a conventional gas turbine in the sense that its combustor is substituted with the mixed conductive membrane (MCM-reactor). The MCM-reactor is made up of the combustor, low-temperature heat exchanger LTHX (referred to by some authors as air preheater the mixed conductive membrane responsible for oxygen transfer and the high-temperature heat exchanger and in some layouts, the bleed gas heat exchanger. Air is taken in by the compressor and compressed to a temperature of about 723 Kelvin and pressure of 2 Mega-Pascals. The membrane area needed for oxygen transfer is reduced by increasing the temperature of 90% of the air using the LTHX; the temperature is also increased to facilitate oxygen transfer through the membrane. The air stream enters the LTHX through the transition duct leading to inlet of the LTHX. The temperature of the air stream is then increased to about 1150 K depending on the design point specification of the plant and the efficiency of the heat exchanging system. The amount of oxygen transported through the membrane is directly proportional to the temperature of air going through the membrane. The AZEP cycle was developed using the Fortran software and economic analysis was conducted using excel and Matlab followed by optimization case study. The Simple bleed gas heat exchange layout (100 % CO2 capture), Bleed gas heat exchanger layout with flue gas turbine (100 % CO2 capture), Pre-expansion reheating layout (Sequential burning layout)–AZEP 85% (85% CO2 capture) and Pre-expansion reheating layout (Sequential burning layout) with flue gas turbine–AZEP 85% (85% CO2 capture). This paper discusses monte carlo risk analysis of four possible layouts of the AZEP cycle.

Keywords: gas turbine, global warming, green house gas, fossil fuel power plants

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Jalal M. Abdallah

Abstract:

There is a great problem in testing and investigations the reliability of different type of transformers insulation materials. It summarized in how to create and simulate the real conditions of working transformer and testing its insulation materials for Partial Discharge PD, typically as in the working mode. A lot of tests may give untrue results as the physical behavior of the insulation material differs under tests from its working condition. In this work, the real working conditions were simulated, and a large number of specimens have been tested. The investigations first stage, begin with choosing samples of different types of insulation materials (papers, pressboards, etc.). The second stage, the samples were dried in ovens at 105 C⁰and 0.01bar for 48 hours, and then impregnated with dried and gasless oil (the water content less than 6 ppm.) at 105 C⁰and 0.01bar for 48 hours, after so specimen cooling at room pressure and temperature for 24 hours. The third stage is investigating PD for the samples using ICM PD measuring device. After that, a continuous test on oil-impregnated insulation materials (paper, pressboards) was developed, and the phase resolved partial discharge pattern of PD signals was measured. The important of this work in providing the industrial sector with trusted high accurate measuring results based on real simulated working conditions. All the PD patterns (results) associated with a discharge produced in well-controlled laboratory condition. They compared with other previous and other laboratory results. In addition, the influence of different temperatures condition on the partial discharge activities was studied.

Keywords: transformers, insulation materials, voids, partial discharge

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: P. Suresh, K. Gunasekaran, R. Thanigaivelan

Abstract:

Radio frequency identification (RFID) technology has been attracting considerable attention with the expectation of improved supply chain visibility for consumer goods, apparel, and pharmaceutical manufacturers, as well as retailers and government procurement agencies. It is also expected to improve the consumer shopping experience by making it more likely that the products they want to purchase are available. Recent announcements from some key retailers have brought interest in RFID to the forefront. A modified K- Means Cluster based Heuristic approach, Hybrid Genetic Algorithm (GA) - Simulated Annealing (SA) approach, Hybrid K-Means Cluster based Heuristic-GA and Hybrid K-Means Cluster based Heuristic-GA-SA for Open Loop Supply Chain Network problem are proposed. The study incorporated uniform crossover operator and combined crossover operator in GAs for solving open loop supply chain distribution network problem. The algorithms are tested on 50 randomly generated data set and compared with each other. The results of the numerical experiments show that the Hybrid K-means cluster based heuristic-GA-SA, when tested on 50 randomly generated data set, shows superior performance to the other methods for solving the open loop supply chain distribution network problem.

Keywords: RFID, supply chain distribution network, open loop supply chain, genetic algorithm, simulated annealing

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Bao Li, Aike Qiao, Gaoyang Li, Youjun Liu

Abstract:

Background: Lumped parameter model (LPM) is a common numerical model for hemodynamic calculation. LPM uses circuit elements to simulate the human blood circulatory system. Physiological indicators and characteristics can be acquired through the model. However, due to the different physiological indicators of each individual, parameters in LPM should be personalized in order for convincing calculated results, which can reflect the individual physiological information. This study aimed to develop an automatic and effective optimization method to personalize the parameters in LPM of the blood circulatory system, which is of great significance to the numerical simulation of individual hemodynamics. Methods: A closed-loop LPM of the human blood circulatory system that is applicable for most persons were established based on the anatomical structures and physiological parameters. The patient-specific physiological data of 5 volunteers were non-invasively collected as personalized objectives of individual LPM. In this study, the blood pressure and flow rate of heart, brain, and limbs were the main concerns. The collected systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, cardiac output, and heart rate were set as objective data, and the waveforms of carotid artery flow and ankle pressure were set as objective waveforms. Aiming at the collected data and waveforms, sensitivity analysis of each parameter in LPM was conducted to determine the sensitive parameters that have an obvious influence on the objectives. Simulated annealing was adopted to iteratively optimize the sensitive parameters, and the objective function during optimization was the root mean square error between the collected waveforms and data and simulated waveforms and data. Each parameter in LPM was optimized 500 times. Results: In this study, the sensitive parameters in LPM were optimized according to the collected data of 5 individuals. Results show a slight error between collected and simulated data. The average relative root mean square error of all optimization objectives of 5 samples were 2.21%, 3.59%, 4.75%, 4.24%, and 3.56%, respectively. Conclusions: Slight error demonstrated good effects of optimization. The individual modeling algorithm developed in this study can effectively achieve the individualization of LPM for the blood circulatory system. LPM with individual parameters can output the individual physiological indicators after optimization, which are applicable for the numerical simulation of patient-specific hemodynamics.

Keywords: blood circulatory system, individual physiological indicators, lumped parameter model, optimization algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Ahmed Boutejdar, Bishoy I. Halim, Soumia El Hani, Larbi Bellarbi, Amal Afyf

Abstract:

In this paper, a planar monopole antenna for multi band applications is proposed. The antenna structure operates at three operating frequencies at 3.7, 6.2, and 13.5 GHz which cover different communication frequency ranges. The antenna consists of a quasi-modified rectangular radiating patch with a partial ground plane and two parasitic elements (open-loop-ring resonators) to serve as coupling-bridges. A stepped cut at lower corners of the radiating patch and the partial ground plane are used, to achieve the multiband features. The proposed antenna is manufactured on the FR4 substrate and is simulated and optimized using High Frequency Simulation System (HFSS). The antenna topology possesses an area of 30.5 x 30 x 1.6 mm³. The measured results demonstrate that the candidate antenna has impedance bandwidths for 10 dB return loss and operates from 3.80 – 3.90 GHz, 4.10 – 5.20 GHz, 11.2 – 11.5 GHz and from 12.5 – 14.0 GHz, which meet the requirements of the wireless local area network (WLAN), worldwide interoperability for microwave access (WiMAX), C- (Uplink) and Ku- (Uplink) band applications. Acceptable agreement is obtained between measurement and simulation results. Experimental results show that the antenna is successfully simulated and measured, and the tri-band antenna can be achieved by adjusting the lengths of the three elements and it gives good gains across all the operation bands.

Keywords: planar monopole antenna, FR4 substrate, HFSS, WLAN, WiMAX, C and Ku

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Hameed Rukayat Opeyemi, Pericles Pilidis, Pagone Emanuele

Abstract:

Climate change represents one of the single most challenging problems facing the world today. According to the National Oceanic and Administrative Association, Atmospheric temperature rose almost 25% since 1958, Artic sea ice has shrunk 40% since 1959 and global sea levels have risen more than 5.5 cm since 1990. Power plants are the major culprits of GHG emission to the atmosphere. Several technologies have been proposed to reduce the amount of GHG emitted to the atmosphere from power plant, one of which is the less researched Advanced zero emission power plant. The advanced zero emission power plants make use of mixed conductive membrane (MCM) reactor also known as oxygen transfer membrane (OTM) for oxygen transfer. The MCM employs membrane separation process. The membrane separation process was first introduced in 1899 when Walter Hermann Nernst investigated electric current between metals and solutions. He found that when a dense ceramic is heated, current of oxygen molecules move through it. In the bid to curb the amount of GHG emitted to the atmosphere, the membrane separation process was applied to the field of power engineering in the low carbon cycle known as the Advanced zero emission power plant (AZEP cycle). The AZEP cycle was originally invented by Norsk Hydro, Norway and ABB Alstom power (now known as Demag Delaval Industrial turbo machinery AB), Sweden. The AZEP drew a lot of attention because its ability to capture ~100% CO2 and also boasts of about 30-50 % cost reduction compared to other carbon abatement technologies, the penalty in efficiency is also not as much as its counterparts and crowns it with almost zero NOx emissions due to very low nitrogen concentrations in the working fluid. The advanced zero emission power plants differ from a conventional gas turbine in the sense that its combustor is substituted with the mixed conductive membrane (MCM-reactor). The MCM-reactor is made up of the combustor, low temperature heat exchanger LTHX (referred to by some authors as air pre-heater the mixed conductive membrane responsible for oxygen transfer and the high temperature heat exchanger and in some layouts, the bleed gas heat exchanger. Air is taken in by the compressor and compressed to a temperature of about 723 Kelvin and pressure of 2 Mega-Pascals. The membrane area needed for oxygen transfer is reduced by increasing the temperature of 90% of the air using the LTHX; the temperature is also increased to facilitate oxygen transfer through the membrane. The air stream enters the LTHX through the transition duct leading to inlet of the LTHX. The temperature of the air stream is then increased to about 1150 K depending on the design point specification of the plant and the efficiency of the heat exchanging system. The amount of oxygen transported through the membrane is directly proportional to the temperature of air going through the membrane. The AZEP cycle was developed using the Fortran software and economic analysis was conducted using excel and Matlab followed by optimization case study. This paper discusses techno-economic analysis of four possible layouts of the AZEP cycle. The Simple bleed gas heat exchange layout (100 % CO2 capture), Bleed gas heat exchanger layout with flue gas turbine (100 % CO2 capture), Pre-expansion reheating layout (Sequential burning layout) – AZEP 85 % (85 % CO2 capture) and Pre-expansion reheating layout (Sequential burning layout) with flue gas turbine– AZEP 85 % (85 % CO2 capture). This paper discusses Montecarlo risk analysis of four possible layouts of the AZEP cycle.

Keywords: gas turbine, global warming, green house gases, power plants

Procedia PDF Downloads 471

Authors: Mario Tauzene Afonso Matangue, Ivan Andres Sanchez Ortiz

Abstract:

The Metropolitan area of Maputo (Mozambique Capital City) is located in semi-arid zone (800 mm annual rainfall) with 1101170 million inhabitants. On the west side, there are the flatlands of Infulene where the Mulauze River flows towards to the Indian Ocean, receiving at this site, the storm water contaminated with sanitary sewage from Maputo, transported through a concrete open channel. In Infulene, local communities grow salads crops such as tomato, onion, garlic, lettuce, and cabbage, which are then commercialized and consumed in several markets in Maputo City. Lettuce is the most daily consumed salad crop in different meals, generally in fast-foods, breakfasts, lunches, and dinners. However, the risk of infection by several pathogens due to the consumption of lettuce, using the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) tools, is still unknown since there are few studies or publications concerning to this matter in Mozambique. This work is aimed at determining the annual risk arising from the consumption of lettuce grown in Infulene valley, in Maputo, using QMRA tools. The exposure model was constructed upon the volume of contaminated water remaining in the lettuce leaves, the empirical relations between the number of pathogens and the indicator of microorganisms (E. coli), the consumption of lettuce (g) and reduction of pathogens (days). The reference pathogens were Vibrio cholerae, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Ascaris. The water quality samples (E. coli) were collected in the storm water channel from January 2016 to December 2018, comprising 65 samples, and the urban lettuce consumption data were collected through inquiry in Maputo Metropolis covering 350 persons. A non-parametric bootstrap was performed involving 10,000 iterations over the collected dataset, namely, water quality (E. coli) and lettuce consumption. The dose-response models were: Exponential for Cryptosporidium, Kummer Confluent hypergeomtric function (1F1) for Vibrio and Ascaris Gaussian hypergeometric function (2F1-(a,b;c;z) for norovirus. The annual infection risk estimates were performed using R 3.6.0 (CoreTeam) software by Monte Carlo (Latin hypercubes), a sampling technique involving 10,000 iterations. The annual infection risks values expressed by Median and the 95th percentile, per person per year (pppy) arising from the consumption of lettuce are as follows: Vibrio cholerae (1.00, 1.00), Cryptosporidium (3.91x10⁻³, 9.72x 10⁻³), nororvirus (5.22x10⁻¹, 9.99x10⁻¹) and Ascaris (2.59x10⁻¹, 9.65x10⁻¹). Thus, the consumption of the lettuce would result in greater risks than the tolerable levels ( < 10⁻³ pppy or 10⁻⁶ DALY) for all pathogens, and the Vibrio cholerae is the most virulent pathogens, according to the hit-single models followed by the Ascaris lumbricoides and norovirus. The sensitivity analysis carried out in this work pointed out that in the whole QMRA, the most important input variable was the reduction of pathogens (Spearman rank value was 0.69) between harvest and consumption followed by water quality (Spearman rank value was 0.69). The decision-makers (Mozambique Government) must strengthen the prevention measures related to pathogens reduction in lettuce (i.e., washing) and engage in wastewater treatment engineering.

Keywords: annual infections risk, lettuce, non-parametric bootstrapping, quantitative microbial risk assessment tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Abhishek Saha, Serene Tay, Gerard Pijcke

Abstract:

The availability of high-resolution topography and rainfall information in urban areas has made it necessary to revise modeling approaches used for simulating flood risk assessments. Lidar derived elevation models that have 1m or lower resolutions are becoming widely accessible. The classical approaches of 1D-2D flow models where channel flow is simulated and coupled with a coarse resolution 2D overland flow models may not fully utilize the information provided by high-resolution data. In this context, a study was undertaken to compare three different modeling approaches to simulate flooding in an urban area. The first model used is the base model used is Sobek, which uses 1D model formulation together with hydrologic boundary conditions and couples with an overland flow model in 2D. The second model uses a full 2D model for the entire area with shallow water equations at the resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM). These models are compared against another shallow water equation solver in 2D, which uses a subgrid method for grid refinement. These models are simulated for different horizontal resolutions of DEM varying between 1m to 5m. The results show a significant difference in inundation extents and water levels for different DEMs. They are also sensitive to the different numerical models with the same physical parameters, such as friction. The study shows the importance of having reliable field observations of inundation extents and levels before a choice of model and data can be made for spatial flood risk assessments.

Keywords: flooding, DEM, shallow water equations, subgrid

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Anamitra Ghosh, Neeladri Paul

Abstract:

The present work aims at investigating material combinations and thereby improvising an optimized design of liner-mother plate arrangement and that of the stone box, such that it has low cost, high weldability, sufficiently capable of withstanding the increased amount of corrosive shear and bending loads, and having reduced thermal expansion coefficient at temperatures close to 1000 degrees Celsius. All the above factors have been preliminarily examined using a computational approach via ANSYS Thermo-Structural Computation, a commercial software that uses the Finite Element Method to analyze the response of simulated design specimens of liner-mother plate arrangement and the stone box, to varied bending, shear, and thermal loads as well as to determine the temperature gradients developed across various surfaces of the designs. Finally, the optimized structural designs of the liner-mother plate arrangement and that of the stone box with improved material and better structural and thermal properties are selected via trial-and-error method. The final improvised design is therefore considered to enhance the overall life and reliability of a Direct Charge Transfer Chute that transfers and segregates the hot sinter onto the cooler in a sinter plant.

Keywords: shear, bending, thermal, sinter, simulated, optimized, charge, transfer, chute, expansion, computational, corrosive, stone box, liner, mother plate, arrangement, material

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Sina Keyhanian, Abbas Ahmadi, Behrooz Karimi

Abstract:

We present a multi-objective binary programming model which considers surgical cases are scheduling among operating rooms and the configuration of surgical instruments in limited capacity hospital trays, simultaneously. Many mathematical models have been developed previously in the literature addressing different challenges in health-care logistics such as assigning operating rooms, leveling beds, etc. But what happens inside the operating rooms along with the inventory management of required instruments for various operations, and also their integration with surgical scheduling have been poorly discussed. Our model considers the minimization of movements between trays during a surgery which recalls the famous cell formation problem in group technology. This assumption can also provide a major potential contribution to robotic surgeries. The tray configuration problem which consumes surgical instruments requirement plan (SIRP) and sequence of surgical procedures based on required instruments (SIRO) is nested inside the bin packing problem. This modeling approach helps us understand that most of the same-output solutions will not be necessarily identical when it comes to the rearrangement of surgeries among rooms. A numerical example has been dealt with via a proposed nested simulated annealing (SA) optimization approach which provides insights about how various configurations inside a solution can alter the optimal condition.

Keywords: health-care logistics, hospital tray configuration, off-line bin packing, simulated annealing optimization, surgical case scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

Abstract:

Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

Abstract:

Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km2, is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R2, which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, modeling, sensitivity analysis, SWAT, water yield, watershed level

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar G

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A challenging aspect of any clinical trial is to carefully plan the study design to meet the study objective in optimum way and to validate the assumptions made during protocol designing. And when it is a pediatric study, there is the added challenge of stringent guidelines and difficulty in recruiting the necessary subjects. Unlike adult trials, there is not much historical data available for pediatrics, which is required to validate assumptions for planning pediatric trials. Typically, pediatric studies are initiated as soon as approval is obtained for a drug to be marketed for adults, so with the adult study historical information and with the available pediatric pilot study data or simulated pediatric data, the pediatric study can be well planned. Generalizing the historical adult study for new pediatric study is a tedious task; however, it is possible by integrating various statistical techniques and utilizing the advantage of hybrid study design, which will help to achieve the study objective in a smoother way even with the presence of many constraints. This research paper will explain how well the hybrid study design can be planned along with integrated technique (SEV) to plan the pediatric study; In brief the SEV technique (Simulation, Estimation (using borrowed adult data and applying Bayesian methods)) incorporates the use of simulating the planned study data and getting the desired estimates to Validate the assumptions.This method of validation can be used to improve the accuracy of data analysis, ensuring that results are as valid and reliable as possible, which allow us to make informed decisions well ahead of study initiation. With professional precision, this technique based on the collected data allows to gain insight into best practices when using data from historical study and simulated data alike.

Keywords: adaptive design, simulation, borrowing data, bayesian model

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Sinha, Y. K. Nayak, N. Kumar, Swapnil Saurav, Monika Kashyap

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The authors investigate the effect of system and operating parameters on the performance of high temperature solar concentrator for power generation. The effects of system and operating parameters were investigated using the developed mathematical expressions for collector efficiency, heat removal factor, fluid outlet temperature and power, etc. The results were simulated using C++program. The simulated results were plotted for investigation like effect of thermal loss parameter and radiative loss parameters on the collector efficiency, heat removal factor, fluid outlet temperature, rise of temperature and effect of mass flow rate of the fluid outlet temperature. In connection with the power generation, plots were drawn for the effect of (TM–TAMB) on the variation of concentration efficiency, concentrator irradiance on PM/PMN, evaporation temperature on thermal to electric power efficiency (Conversion efficiency) of the plant and overall efficiency of solar power plant.

Keywords: parabolic trough solar collector, radiative and thermal loss parameters, collector efficiency, heat removal factor, fluid outlet and inlet temperatures, rise of temperature, mass flow rate, conversion efficiency, concentrator irradiance

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Authors: Mohamed Mohamed, Philip Bonello, Peter Russhard

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Blade Tip Timing (BTT) is a technology concerned with the estimation of both frequency and amplitude of rotating blades. A BTT system comprises two main parts: (a) the arrival time measurement system, and (b) the analysis algorithms. Simulators play an important role in the development of the analysis algorithms since they generate blade tip displacement data from the simulated blade vibration under controlled conditions. This enables an assessment of the performance of the different algorithms with respect to their ability to accurately reproduce the original simulated vibration. Such an assessment is usually not possible with real engine data since there is no practical alternative to BTT for blade vibration measurement. Most simulators used in the literature are based on a simple spring-mass-damper model to determine the vibration. In this work, a more realistic experimentally validated simulator based on the Finite Element (FE) model of a bladed disc (blisk) is first presented. It is then used to generate the necessary data for the assessment of different BTT algorithms. The FE modelling is validated using both a hammer test and two firewire cameras for the mode shapes. A number of autoregressive methods, fitting methods and state-of-the-art inverse methods (i.e. Russhard) are compared. All methods are compared with respect to both synchronous and asynchronous excitations with both single and simultaneous frequencies. The study assesses the applicability of each method for different conditions of vibration, amount of sampling data, and testing facilities, according to its performance and efficiency under these conditions.

Keywords: blade tip timing, blisk, finite element, vibration measurement

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Authors: Dibyendu Roy, V. Ramu Reddy, Parijat Deshpande, Ranjan Dasgupta

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Imaging of underwater objects is primarily conducted by acoustic imagery due to the severe attenuation of electro-magnetic waves in water. Acoustic imagery underwater has varied range of significant applications such as side-scan sonar, mine hunting sonar. It also finds utility in other domains such as imaging of body tissues via ultrasonography and non-destructive testing of objects. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of using active acoustic imagery in air and simulate phased array beamforming techniques available in literature for various array designs to achieve a suitable acoustic sensor array design for a portable mobile robot which can be applied to detect the presence/absence of anomalous objects in a room. The multi-path reflection effects especially in enclosed rooms and environmental noise factors are currently not simulated and will be dealt with during the experimental phase. The related hardware is designed with the same feasibility criterion that the developed system needs to be deployed on a portable mobile robot. There is a trade of between image resolution and range with the array size, number of elements and the imaging frequency and has to be iteratively simulated to achieve the desired acoustic sensor array design. The designed acoustic imaging array system is to be mounted on a portable mobile robot and targeted for use in surveillance missions for intruder alerts and imaging objects during dark and smoky scenarios where conventional optic based systems do not function well.

Keywords: acoustic sensor array, acoustic imagery, anomaly detection, phased array beamforming

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Authors: Bouabdellah Abed, Mohamed Bouzit, Lakhdar Bouarbi

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The objective of this study is to investigate numerically the effect of roof shaped on wind flow and pollutant dispersion in a street canyon with one row of trees of pore volume, Pvol = 96%. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for evaluating air flow and pollutant dispersion within an urban street canyon using Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations and the k-Epsilon EARSM turbulence model as close of the equation system. The numerical model is performed with ANSYS-CFX code. Vehicle emissions were simulated as double line sources along the street. The numerical model was validated against the wind tunnel experiment. Having established this, the wind flow and pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons of six roof shapes are simulated. The numerical simulation agrees reasonably with the wind tunnel data. The results obtained in this work, indicate that the flow in 3D domain is more complicated, this complexity is increased with presence of tree and variability of the roof shapes. The results also indicated that the largest pollutant concentration level for two walls (leeward and windward wall) is observed with the upwind wedge-shaped roof. But the smallest pollutant concentration level is observed with the dome roof-shaped. The results also indicated that the corners eddies provide additional ventilation and lead to lower traffic pollutant concentrations at the street canyon ends.

Keywords: street canyon, pollutant dispersion, trees, building configuration, numerical simulation, k-Epsilon EARSM

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Authors: Samara A. Testoni, Vander F. Melo, Lorna A. Dawson, Fabio A. S. Salvador

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Soil traces are useful as forensic evidence due to their potential to transfer and adhere to different types of surfaces on a range of objects or persons. The great variability expressed by soil physical, chemical, biological and mineralogical properties show soil traces as complex mixtures. Soils are continuous and variable, no two soil samples being indistinguishable, nevertheless, the complexity of soil characteristics can provide powerful evidence for comparative forensic purposes. This work aimed to establish a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for forensic soil analysis in Brazil. We carried out a simulated crime scene with double blind sampling to calibrate the sampling procedures. Samples were collected at a range of locations covering a range of soil types found in South of Brazil: Santa Candida and Boa Vista, neighbourhoods from Curitiba (State of Parana) and in Guarani and Guaraituba, neighbourhoods from Colombo (Curitiba Metropolitan Region). A previously validated sequential analyses of chemical, physical and mineralogical analyses was developed in around 2 g of soil. The suggested SOP and the sequential range of analyses were effective in grouping the samples from the same place and from the same parent material together, as well as successfully discriminated samples from different locations and originated from different rocks. In addition, modifications to the sample treatment and analytical protocol can be made depending on the context of the forensic work.

Keywords: clay mineralogy, forensic soils analysis, sequential analyses, kaolinite, gibbsite

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Authors: Rabiya, Ramkrishna Sen

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The textile industry releases huge volume of effluent containing reactive dyes in the nearby water bodies. These effluents are significant source of water pollution since most of the dyes are toxic in nature. Moreover, it scavenges the dissolved oxygen essential to the aquatic species. Therefore, it is necessary to treat the dye effluent before it is discharged in the nearby water bodies. The present study focuses on removing the basic dye methylene blue from simulated wastewater using biopolymer. The biopolymer was partially purified from the culture of Bacillus licheniformis by ultrafiltration. Based on the elution profile of the biopolymer from ion exchange column, it was found to be a negatively charged molecule. Its net anionic nature allows the biopolymer to adsorb positively charged molecule, methylene blue. The major factors which influence the removal of dye by the biopolymer such as incubation time, pH, initial dye concentration were evaluated. The methylene blue uptake by the biopolymer is more (14.84 mg/g) near neutral pH than in acidic pH (12.05mg/g) of the water. At low pH, the lower dissociation of the dye molecule as well as the low negative charge available on the biopolymer reduces the interaction between the biopolymer and dye. The optimum incubation time for maximum removal of dye was found to be 60 min. The entire study was done with 25 mL of dye solution in 100 mL flask at 25 °C with an amount of 11g/L of biopolymer. To study the adsorption isotherm, the dye concentration was varied in the range of 25mg/L to 205mg/L. The dye uptake by the biopolymer against the equilibrium concentration was plotted. The plot indicates that the adsorption of dye by biopolymer follows the Freundlich adsorption isotherm (R-square 0.99). Hence, these studies indicate the potential use of biopolymer for the removal of basic dye from textile wastewater in an ecofriendly and sustainable way.

Keywords: biopolymer, methylene blue dye, textile industry, wastewater

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Sara Gallo, Margherita Pasini, Margherita Brondino, Daniela Raccanello, Roberto Burro, Elisa Menardo

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Most of the studies on the ability of environments to recover people’s cognitive resources have been conducted in laboratory using simulated environments (e.g., photographs, videos, or virtual reality), based on the implicit assumption that exposure to simulated environments has the same effects of exposure to real environments. However, the technical characteristics of simulated environments, such as the dynamic or static characteristics of the stimulus, critically affect their perception. Measuring perceived restorativeness in situ rather than in laboratory could increase the validity of the obtained measurements. Personal mobile devices could be useful because they allow accessing immediately online surveys when people are directly exposed to an environment. At the same time, it becomes important to develop short and reliable measuring instruments that allow a quick assessment of the restorative qualities of the environments. One of the frequently used self-report measures to assess perceived restorativeness is the “Perceived Restorativeness Scale” (PRS) based on Attention Restoration Theory. A lot of different versions have been proposed and used according to different research purposes and needs, without studying their validity. This longitudinal study reported some preliminary validation analyses on a short version of original scale, the PRS-6, developed to be quick and mobile-friendly. It is composed of 6 items assessing fascination and being-away. 102 Italian university students participated to the study, 84% female with age ranging from 18 to 47 (M = 20.7; SD = 2.9). Data were obtained through a survey online that asked them to report their perceived restorativeness of the environment they were in (and the kind of environment) and their positive emotion (Positive and Negative Affective Schedule, PANAS) once a day for seven days. Cronbach alpha and item-total correlations were used to assess reliability and internal consistency. Confirmatory Factor Analyses (CFA) models were run to study the factorial structure (construct validity). Correlation analyses between PRS and PANAS scores were used to check discriminant validity. In the end, multigroup CFA models were used to study measurement invariance (configural, metric, scalar, strict) between different mobile devices and between day of assessment. On the whole, the PRS-6 showed good psychometric proprieties, similar to those of the original scale, and invariance across devices and days. These results suggested that the PRS-6 could be a valid alternative to assess perceived restorativeness when researchers need a brief and immediate evaluation of the recovery quality of an environment.

Keywords: restorativeness, validation, short scale development, psychometrics proprieties

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Authors: Mrinalini Amritkar, Disha Patil, Swapna Kulkarni, Sukratu Barve, Suresh Gosavi

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Micro-mixers play an important role in the lab-on-a-chip applications and micro total analysis systems to acquire the correct level of mixing for any given process. The mixing process can be classified as active or passive according to the use of external energy. Literature of microfluidics reports that most of the work is done on the models of steady laminar flow; however, the study of unsteady laminar flow is an active area of research at present. There are wide applications of this, out of which, we consider nanoparticle synthesis in micro-mixers. In this work, we have developed a model for unsteady flow to study the mixing performance of a passive micro mixer for reactants used for such synthesis. The model is developed in Finite Volume Method (FVM)-based software, OpenFOAM. The model is tested by carrying out the simulations at Re of 0.5. Mixing performance of the micro-mixer is investigated using simulated concentration values of mixed species across the width of the micro-mixer and calculating the variance across a line profile. Experimental validation is done by passing dyes through a Y shape micro-mixer fabricated using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) polymer and comparing variances with the simulated ones. Gold nanoparticles are later synthesized through the micro-mixer and collected at two different times leading to significantly different size distributions. These times match with the time scales over which reactant concentrations vary as obtained from simulations. Our simulations could thus be used to create design aids for passive micro-mixers used in nanoparticle synthesis.

Keywords: Lab-on-chip, LOC, micro-mixer, OpenFOAM, PDMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 161