Search results for: risk behaviour

Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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Authors: Ali Isa Danlami

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This study examined the coaching leadership behaviours preferred by athletes in individual and team sports in Nigeria that may lead to increased satisfaction and performance. Six leadership behaviours were identified; these are democratic, training and instruction, situational consideration, autocratic, social support and positive feedback. The six leadership behaviours relate to the preference of coaches by athletes that leads to increased performance were the focus of this study. The population of this study is comprised of male and female athletes of states sports councils in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was employed for this study. Stratified and purposive sampling techniques were used to select the sampled states according to the six geo-political zones of the country. Two states (North Central (FCT, Nasarawa), North East (Bauchi, Gombe), North West (Kaduna, Sokoto), South East (Anambra, Imo), South west (Ogun, Ondo), South South (Delta, and Rivers) were selected from each stratum. A modified questionnaire was used to collect data for this study, and the data collected were subjected to a reliability test using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) to analyse the data. A two sample Z-test procedure was used to test the significant differences because of the large number of subjects involved in the different groups. All hypotheses were tested at 0.05 alpha value. The findings of the study concluded that: Athletes in team and individual sports generally preferred coaches who were more disposed towards training and instructions, social support, positive feedback, situational consideration and democratic behaviours. It was also found that athletes in team sports have higher preference for coaches with democratic behaviour. The result revealed that athletes in team and individual sports did not have a preference for coaches disposed towards autocratic behaviour. Based on this, the following recommendations were made: Democratic behaviour by coaches should be encouraged in team and individual sports. Coaches should not be engaged in autocratic behaviours when coaching. These behaviours should be adopted by coaches to increase athletes’ satisfaction and enhancement in performance.

Keywords: leadership behaviour, preference, athletes, individual, team, coaches’

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: Hassan Barau Singhry

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Purpose: Leadership or the absence of it is an important behaviour affecting employees’ job satisfaction. Although, there are many models of leadership, one that stands out in a period of change is the transformational behaviour. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of an organizational justice on the relationship between transformational leadership and employee job satisfaction. The study is based on the assumption that change begins with leaders and leaders should be fair and just. Methodology: A cross-sectional survey through structured questionnaire was employed to collect the data of this study. The population is selected the three tiers of government such as the local, state, and federal governments in Nigeria. The sampling method used in this research is stratified random sampling. 418 middle managers of public organizations respondents to the questionnaire. Multiple regression aided by structural equation modeling was employed to test 4 hypothesized relationships. Finding: The regression results support for the mediating role of organizational justice such as distributive, procedural, interpersonal and informational justice in the link between transformational leadership and job satisfaction. Originality/value: This study adds to the literature of human resource management by empirically validating and integrating transformational leadership behaviour with the four dimensions of organizational justice theory. The study is expected to be beneficial to the top and middle-level administrators as well as theory building and testing.

Keywords: distributive justice, job satisfaction, organizational justice, procedural justice, transformational leadership

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Food environments are believed to play a significant role in the obesity epidemic and robust research methods are required to establish which factors or aspects of the food environment are relevant to food choice and to adiposity. The relationship between the food environment and obesity is complex. While there is little research linking food access with obesity as an outcome measure in any age group, with the help of this article we will try to understand the relationship between what we eat and the environmental context in which these food choices are made. Methods: A literature search of studies published between January 2000 and December 2013 was undertaken on computerized medical, social science, health, nutrition and education databases including Google, PubMed etc. Reports of organisations such as World Health Organisation (WHO), Centre for Chronic Disease Control (CCDC) were studied to project the data. Results: Studies show that food environments play a significant role in the obesity epidemic and robust research methods are required to establish which factors or aspects of the food environment are relevant to food choice and to adiposity. Evidence indicates that the food environment may help explain the obesity and cardio-metabolic risk factors among young adults. Conclusion: Cardiovascular disease is the ever growing chronic disease, the incidence of which will increase markedly in the coming decades. Therefore, it is the need of the hour to assess the prevalence of various risk factors that contribute to the incidence of cardiovascular diseases especially in the work environment. Research is required to establish how different environments affect different individuals as individuals interact with the environment on a number of levels. We need to ascertain the impact of selected food and nutrition environments (Information, organization, community, consumer) on food choice and dietary intake of the working adults as it is important to learn how these food environments influence the eating perceptions and health behaviour of the adults.

Keywords: food environment, prevalence, cardiovascular disease, India, worksite, risk factors

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Yana Gorina, Olga Lopatina, Elina Tsigeman, Larisa Mararitsa

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The ability to act in concert with others, the so-called sensorimotor synchronisation, is a fundamental human ability that underlies successful interpersonal coordination. The manifestation of accuracy and plasticity in synchronisation is an adaptive aspect of interaction with the environment, as well as the ability to predict upcoming actions and behaviour of others. The ability to temporarily coordinate one’s actions with a predictable external event is manifested in such types of social behaviour as a synchronised group dance to music played live by an orchestra, group sports (rowing, swimming, etc.), synchronised actions of surgeons during an operation, applause from an admiring audience, walking rhythms, etc. Both our body and mind are involved in achieving the synchronisation during social interactions. However, it has not yet been well described how the brain determine the external rhythm and what neuropeptides coordinate and synchronise actions. Over the past few decades, there has been an increased interest among neuroscientists and neurophysiologists regarding the neuropeptide oxytocin in the context of its complex, diverse and sometimes polar effects manifested in the emotional and social aspects of behaviour (attachment, trust, empathy, emotion recognition, stress response, anxiety and depression, etc.). Presumable, oxytocin might also be involved in social synchronisation processes. The aim of our study is to test the hypothesis that oxytocin is linked to interpersonal synchronisation in a pair of strangers.

Keywords: behavior, movement, oxytocin, synchronization

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Ade Oyedijo

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This paper reports the findings of a study on the strategic and organizational antecedents and effects of two opposing pay patterns used by some manufacturing companies in Lagos Nigeria with particular reference to the behavioural correlates of the pay strategies considered. The assumed relationship between pay strategies and some organizational correlates such as business and corporate strategies and firm size was considered problematic in view of their likely implications for employee motivation and citizenship behaviour and firm performance. The survey research method was used for the study. Structured, close ended questions were used to collect primary data from the respondents. A multipart Likert scale was used to measure the pay orientations of the respondent firms and the job and organizational involvement of the respondent employees. Utilizing hierarchical linear regression method and "t-test" to analyze the data obtained from 48 manufacturing companies of various sizes and strategies, it was found that the dominant pattern of employee compensation in the sampled manufacturing companies. The study also revealed that the choice of a pay strategy was strongly influenced by organizational size as well as the type of business and corporate level strategies adopted by afirm. Firms pursuing a strategy of related and unrelated diversification are more likely to adopt the algorithmic compensation system than single product firms because of their relatively larger size and scope. However; firms that pursue a competitive advantage through a business level strategy of cost efficiency are more likely to use the experiential, variable pay strategy. The study found that an algorithmic compensation strategy is as effective as experiential compensation strategy in the promotion of organizational citizenship behaviour and motivation of employees.

Keywords: compensation, corporate strategy, business strategy, motivation, citizenship behaviour, algorithmic, experiential, organizational commitment, work environment

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Mohamad Saberi, Arash Sohrabi

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Tuned liquid damper is one the passive structural control ways which has been used since mid-1980 decade for seismic control in civil engineering. This system is made of one or many tanks filled with fluid, mostly water that installed on top of the high raised structure and used to prevent structure vibration. In this article, we will show how to make seismic table contain TLD system and analysis the result of using this system in our structure. Results imply that when frequency ratio approaches 1 this system can perform its best in both dissipate energy and increasing structural damping. And also results of these serial experiments are proved compatible with Hunzer linear theory behaviour.

Keywords: TLD, seismic table, structural system, Hunzer linear behaviour

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Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad

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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.

Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Aticha Kwaengsopha

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The purpose of this research was to study the behaviour and related factors that tourists utilized for making decisions to choose their accommodations at a tourist destination, Bangkontee district, Samut Songkhran Province, Thailand. The independent variables included gender, age, income, occupation, and region, while the three important dependent variables included selection behaviour, factors related selection process, and satisfaction of the accommodation service. A total of 400 Thai and international tourists were interviewed at tourist destination of Bangkontee. A questionnaire was used as the tool for collecting data. Descriptive statistics in this research included percentage, mean, and standard deviation. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were single, female, and with the age between 23-30 years old. Most of the international tourists were from Asia and planned to stay in Thailand about 1-6 days. In addition, the majority of tourists preferred to travel in small groups of 3 persons. The majority of respondents used internet and word of mouth as the main tool to search for information. The majority of respondents spent most of their budget on food & drink, accommodation, and travelling. Even though the majority of tourists were satisfied with the quality of accommodation, the price range of accommodation, and the image of accommodation and the facilities of the accommodation, they indicated that they were not likely to re-visit Thailand in the near future.

Keywords: behaviour, decision factors, tourists, media engineering

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Authors: S. Mogili, J. S. Kuang, N. Zhang

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Knee joints, the beam column connections found at the roof level of a moment resisting frame buildings, are inherently different from conventional interior and exterior beam column connections in the way that forces from adjoining members are transferred into joint and then resisted by the joint. A knee connection has two distinct load resisting mechanisms, each for closing and opening actions acting simultaneously under reversed cyclic loading. In spite of many distinct differences in the behaviour of shear resistance in knee joints, there are no special design provisions in the major design codes available across the world due to lack of in-depth research on the knee connections. To understand the relative importance of opening and closing actions in design, it is imperative to study knee joints under varying shear stresses, especially at higher opening-to-closing shear stress ratios. Three knee joint specimens, under different input shear stresses, were designed to produce a varying ratio of input opening to closing shear stresses. The design was carried out in such a way that the ratio of flexural strength of beams with consideration of axial forces in opening to closing actions are maintained at 0.5, 0.7, and 1.0, thereby resulting in the required variation of opening to closing joint shear stress ratios among the specimens. The behaviour of these specimens was then carefully studied in terms of closing and opening capacities, hysteretic behaviour, and envelope curves to understand the differences in joint performance based on which an attempt to suggest design guidelines for knee joints is made emphasizing the relative importance of opening and closing actions. Specimens with relatively higher opening stresses were observed to be more vulnerable under the action of seismic loading.

Keywords: Knee-joints, large-scale testing, opening and closing shear stresses, seismic performance

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Ralph Gruber, Martina Hafner, Theresia Greunz, Christian Reisecker, David Stifter

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The application of dry lubricant on aluminium for automotive industry is indispensable for a high-quality forming behaviour. To provide a short production time those forming aids will not be removed during the joining step. The aim of this study was the characterization of the influence of dry lubricants on the bond strength and the corrosion resistance of an 6xxx aluminium alloy for automotive applications. For this purpose, samples with a well-defined surface were lubricated with 1 g/m² dry lubricant and joined with a commercial thermosetting 1K-epoxy structural adhesive. The bond strength was characterized by means of lap shear test. To evaluate the corrosion resistance of the adhered aluminium samples an immersion test in 5 w% NaCl-solution was used. Based on fracture pattern analysis, the corrosion behaviour could be described. Dissolved corrosion products were examined using ICP-MS and NMR. By means of SEM/EDX the elementary composition of precipitated solids was determined. The results showed a dry lubricant independent bond strength for standard testing conditions. However, a significant effect of the forming aid, regarding the corrosion resistance of adhered aluminium samples against corrosive infiltration of the metal-adhesive-interface, was observed

Keywords: aluminium alloys, dry film lubricants, automotive industry, adhesive bonding, corrosion

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Ala Hanetite

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The purpose of this article is to present, by means of a model, the determinants of organisational culture which influence creativity and innovation. A literature study showed that a model, based on the open systems theory and the work of Schein, can offer a holistic approach in describing organisational culture. The relationship between creativity, innovation and culture is discussed in this context. Against the background of this model, the determinants of organisational culture were identified. The determinants are strategy, structure, support mechanisms, behaviour that encourages innovation, and open communication. The influence of each determinant on creativity and innovation is discussed. Values, norms and beliefs that play a role in creativity and innovation can either support or inhibit creativity and innovation depending on how they influence individual and group behaviour. This is also explained in the article.

Keywords: attitudes, creativity, innovation, organisational culture

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Authors: David Ahiamadia, Ramilan Thiagarajah, Peter Tozer

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In Sub Saharan Africa, farm typologies have been used as a practical way to address heterogeneity among farming systems which is mostly done by grouping farms into subsets with similar characteristics. Due to the complexity in farming systems among farm households, it is not possible to formulate policy recommendations for individual farmers. As a result, this study employs a multivariate statistical approach using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis to reduce heterogeneity in a 615-household data set from the Africa Rising Baseline Evaluation Survey for 25 farming communities in Northern Ghana. Variables selected for the study were mostly socio-economic, production potential, production intensity, production orientation, crop diversity, food security, resource endowments, and climate risk variables. To avoid making some individuals in the subpopulation worse off when aclimate risk intervention is broadly implemented, the findings of the study also account for diversity in climate risk perception among the different farm types identified and their response strategies towards climate risk. The climate risk variables used in this study involve the most severeclimate shock types perceived by the household, household response to climate shock type, and reason for crop failure (i.e., maize, rice, and groundnut). Eventually, four farm types, each with an adequate level of homogeneity in climate risk perception and response strategies, were identified. Farm type 1 and 3 were wealthy with a lower degree of climate risk perception compared to farm type 2 and 4. Also, relatively wealthy farmers used asset liquidation as a climate risk management strategy, whereas poor farmers resorted to engaging in spiritual activities such as prayers, sacrifices, and divine consultations.

Keywords: smallholder, households, climate risk, variables, typologies

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Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

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Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

Abstract:

In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

Abstract:

The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Farah Fazlinda Binti Mohamad, Ahmad Saifizul Abdullah, Mohamed Rehan Karim , Jamilah Mohamad, Siti Hikmah Musthar

Abstract:

Road safety is an important issue in Malaysia. It become important as it is discussed widely throughout printed and electronic media. Most of the news portrays on road accident and fatalities have increased the concern of everyone. This issue affects everyone's life as everyone shares the roads. The most vulnerable victims are the road user who uses the roads every day. It is appalling when World Health Organization (WHO) reported that in every 100,000 of population in Malaysia, 23 fatalities recorded due to road accident alone. This figure is quite alarming and requires serious attention. Furthermore, research by Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research concluded that that speeding has contributed to 60% of all road accident in the country. Therefore, this study aims to elucidate the factors that influence road users’ speeding behaviour on selected roads in Peninsular Malaysia. To achieve this, set of questionnaires has distributed to 500 respondents on selected roads in Peninsular Malaysia. The respondents came from various demographic backgrounds in order to have a fair opinion on the issue. Using descriptive analysis, the results have indicated that psychological factors such as emotion and attitude of road user are the prominent factors that influence the road user’s speeding behaviour. Furthermore, the results have shown that male road users were dominant in speeding compared to female, which led to increased vulnerability to road injuries and fatalities. These findings are very useful in order for us to understand road users’ driving behaviour. Relevant authorities should also revise the existing countermeasures and find ways to reduce road accident. Engineers and road experts could cooperate in designing new road specifications for the road user. Nevertheless, it is important to comprehend this speeding issue and factors associated with it. Each road user should take this matter seriously and responsibly as road safety is a responsibility of all.

Keywords: countermeasures, psychological, road safety, speeding

Procedia PDF Downloads 528