Search results for: stock movement prediction

Authors: Wilaiwan Sornpoon, Sébastien Bonnet, Savitri Garivait

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Open burning of sugarcane fields is recognized to have a negative impact on soil by degrading its properties, especially soil organic carbon (SOC) content. Better understating the effect of open burning on soil carbon dynamics is crucial for documenting the carbon sequestration capacity of agricultural soils. In this study, experiments to investigate soil carbon stocks under burned and unburned sugarcane plantation systems in Thailand were conducted. The results showed that cultivation fields without open burning during 5 consecutive years enabled to increase the SOC content at a rate of 1.37 Mg ha-1y-1. Also it was found that sugarcane fields burning led to about 15% reduction of the total carbon stock in the 0-30 cm soil layer. The overall increase in SOC under unburned practice is mainly due to the large input of organic material through the use of sugarcane residues.

Keywords: soil organic carbon, soil inorganic carbon, carbon sequestration, open burning, sugarcane

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, openVSP, solver, time

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Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

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Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

Keywords: tides, prediction, support vector machines, genetic algorithm, back-propagation neural network, risk, hazards

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Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

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Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty

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Authors: Hasan G. Elmazoghi, Aisha I. Alzayani, Lubna S. Bentaher

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Rainfall is a highly non-linear phenomena, which requires application of powerful supervised data mining techniques for its accurate prediction. In this study the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is used to predict the mean monthly historical rainfall data collected from BENINA station in Benghazi for 31 years, the period of “1977-2006” and the results are compared against the observed values. The specific objective to achieve this goal was to determine the best combination of weather variables to be used as inputs for the ANN model. Several statistical parameters were calculated and an uncertainty analysis for the results is also presented. The best ANN model is then applied to the data of one year (2007) as a case study in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation results reveal that application of ANN technique is promising and can provide reliable estimates of rainfall.

Keywords: neural networks, rainfall, prediction, climatic variables

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Authors: Ali Reza Sattarzadeh, Ronny J. Kutadinata, Pubudu N. Pathirana, Van Thanh Huynh

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Traffic congestion has become a severe worldwide problem, affecting everyday life, fuel consumption, time, and air pollution. The primary causes of these issues are inadequate transportation infrastructure, poor traffic signal management, and rising population. Traffic flow forecasting is one of the essential and effective methods in urban congestion and traffic management, which has attracted the attention of researchers. With the development of technology, undeniable progress has been achieved in existing methods. However, there is a possibility of improvement in the extraction of temporal and spatial features to determine the importance of traffic flow sequences and extraction features. In the proposed model, we implement the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning models for mining nonlinear correlations and their effectiveness in increasing the accuracy of traffic flow prediction in the real dataset. According to the experiments, the results indicate that implementing Conv-LSTM networks increases the productivity and accuracy of deep learning models for traffic flow prediction.

Keywords: deep learning algorithms, intelligent transportation systems, spatiotemporal features, traffic flow prediction

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Authors: Shamshiri Mitra, Abedi Rahim

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This paper investigates corporate investment behavior and its relationship with ownership structure and financial leverage for the listed company of Tehran stock exchange during 2008-2012. The results show that the concentration of ownership has s significant positive effect on corporate investment. The results for the kind of major owners show that institutional ownership had a positive significant effect and state and individual ownership had negative significant effects on the corporate investment but the effect of corporate ownership was not significant. Furthermore the effect of financial leverage was negative and significant.

Keywords: corporate investment behavior, financial leverage, ownership structure corporate investment behavior

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Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali

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This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.

Keywords: online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS

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Authors: Boudersa Said Sami

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This paper aims at revealing the new role of the African translator as a progressive traveler in the thoughts and minds of both Africans and others via his/her multidimensional translations, and a particular focus will be here on literary translation. The African translator, in this respect, is a great actor in Africa’s literary, intellectual and philosophical movement through his exploration of great literary books and highly-echoed intellectual masterpieces via translation. The paper’s hypothesis revolves around the importance of the African translator in moving from one thought to another as shifting from one language to another (French to English or English to French and Arabic). Unless the African translator is alert-minded, lively and animated, the African thoughts are stagnant and Africa is a big mire of rotten ideas. African thoughts are alive, providing that translation is vivid. The findings of the paper reveal the significance of the African translator’s multidimensional roles in keeping Africa in movement. As a pertinent recommendation, translation in Africa should be fostered and its tools should be enhanced as well to keep Africa’s thoughts in continuous mobility between geographic areas as languages are in a progressive move through translation.

Keywords: African, translator, literary, globetrotter, movement

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Authors: Khaldoon G. Albitar, Hassan Y. Kikhia, Jin P. Zhang

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Since 2007, all companies listed on both Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange are required to prepare their consolidated financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). This study investigates the impact of adopting IFRS on accounting quality for a sample of listed on Chinese companies during the period 2003-2013 with sample of 10846 observations over a four-year period before and a five-year period after the adoption of IFRS. This study tests whether the level of earnings management is significantly lower after the adoption of IFRS, and reported earnings is more value relevant during the IFRS period by using the Ohlson model and Jones model, as modified by Dechow. The empirical results show that accounting quality improved with lower earnings management and higher value relevant after the adoption of IFRS in China. The current study contributes to the literature on IFRS adoption and earning quality in two ways. First, As most of the existing studies on earnings quality and IFRS have been conducted on data from the U.S and European countries, this study fills a gap in the existing literature by studying the effect of adoption of IFRS on earnings quality in an emerging market. Second, the findings of our study have important implications for policymakers, auditors, multinational firms, and users of financial reports. As the rapid growth of China's economy gains global recognition, the Chinese stock market is capturing the attention of international investor.

Keywords: international financial reporting standards (ifrs), accounting quality, earnings management, value relevance, china

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Authors: Devina Aprilia Gunawan, Tasya Aspiranti, Inugrah Ratia Pratiwi

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This research aims to classify the mining sector companies based on Altman’s Z-score model, and providing an analysis based on the Altman’s Z-score model’s financial ratios to provide a picture about the financial condition in mining sector companies in Indonesia and their viability in the future, and to find out the partial and simultaneous impact of each of the financial ratio variables in the Altman’s Z-score model, namely (WC/TA), (RE/TA), (EBIT/TA), (MVE/TL), and (S/TA), toward the financial condition represented by the Z-score itself. Among 38 mining sector companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), 28 companies are selected as research sample according to the purposive sampling criteria.The results of this research showed that during 3 years research period at 2010-2012, the amount of the companies that was predicted to be healthy in each year was less than half of the total sample companies and not even reach up to 50%. The multiple regression analysis result showed that all of the research hypotheses are accepted, which means that (WC/TA), (RE/TA), (EBIT/TA), (MVE/TL), and (S/TA), both partially and simultaneously had an impact towards company’s financial condition.

Keywords: Altman’s Z-score model, financial condition, mining companies, Indonesia

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Authors: Clemence Collon, Didier Poracchia

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The manipulation of sports competitions is a new type of sports integrity problem. While doping has become an organized, institutionalized struggle, the manipulation of sports competitions is gradually building up. This study aims to describe and understand how the soft Olympic and Paralympic law was gradually built. It also summarizes the legal tools for prevention, detection, and sanction developed by the international Olympic movement. Then, it analyzes the impact of this soft law on the law of the States, in particular in French law. This study is mainly based on an analysis of existing legal literature and non-binding law in the International Olympic and Paralympic movement and on the French National Olympic Committee. Interviews were carried out with experts from the Olympic movement or experts working on combating the manipulation of sports competitions; the answers are also used in this article. The International Olympic Committee has created a supranational legal base to fight against the manipulation of sports competitions. This legal basis must be respected by sports organizations. The Olympic Charter, the Olympic Code of Ethics, the Olympic Movement Code on the prevention of the manipulation of sports competitions, the rules of standards, the basic universal principles, the manuals, the declarations have been published in this perspective. This sports soft law has influences or repercussions in each state. Many states take this new form of integrity problem into account by creating state laws or measures in favor of the fight against sports manipulations. France has so far only a legal basis for manipulation related to betting on sports competitions through the infraction of sports corruption included in the penal code and also created a national platform with various actors to combat this cheating. This legal study highlights the progressive construction of the sports law rules of the Olympic movement in the fight against the manipulation of sports competitions linked to sports betting and their impact on the law of the states.

Keywords: integrity, law and ethics, manipulation of sports competitions, olympic, sports law

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: A. M. Tahsini, S. Tadayon Mousavi

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The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the flow unsteady behavior for moving plug in convergent-divergent variable thrust nozzle. Compressible axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equations are used to study this physical phenomenon. Different velocities are set for plug to investigate the effect of plug movement on flow unsteadiness. Variation of mass flow rate and thrust are compared under two conditions: First, the plug is placed at different positions and flow is simulated to reach the steady state (quasi steady simulation) and second, the plug is moved with assigned velocity and flow simulation is coupled with plug movement (unsteady simulation). If plug speed is high enough and its movement time scale is at the same order of the flow time scale, variation of the mass flow rate and thrust level versus plug position demonstrate a vital discrepancy under the quasi steady and unsteady conditions. This phenomenon should be considered especially from response time viewpoints in thrusters design.

Keywords: nozzle, numerical study, unsteady, variable thrust

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Authors: Aslam Faheem, Hunjra Ahmed Imran, Tayachi Tahar, Verhoeven Peter, Tariq Yasir

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We investigate the evidence of three risk-adjusted calendar anomalies in eight frontier markets. Our sample consists of the daily closing prices of their stock indices for the period of January 2006 to September 2019. We categorize the data with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar calendar and Islamic calendar. Using Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) eight Markets Index as our proxy of the market portfolio, most of the frontier markets tested exhibit calendar seasonality. We confirm that systematic risk varies with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar months and Islamic months. After consideration of time-varying risk and applying Bonferroni correction, few frontier markets exhibit profitable investment opportunities from calendar return anomalies for active investment managers.

Keywords: asset pricing, frontier markets, market efficiency, Islamic calendar effects, Islamic stock markets

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Authors: Joel Zapata

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Chicana/o Activism in the Southern Plains Through Time and Space, a digital history project available at PlainsMovement.com, helps reveal an understudied portion of the Chicana/o Civil Rights Movement: the way it unfolded on the Southern Plains. The project centers around an approachable interactive map and timeline along with a curated collection of materials. Therefore, the project provides a digital museum experience that has not emerged within the region’s museums. That is, this digital history project takes scholarly research to the wider public, making it is also a publicly facing history project. In this way, the project adds to both scholarly and socially significant conversations, showing that the region was home to a burgeoning wing of the Chicana/o Movement and that instances of police brutality largely spurred this wing of the social justice movement. Moreover, the curated collection of materials demonstrates that police brutality united the plains’ Mexican population across political ideology, a largely overlooked aspect within the study of Mexican American civil rights movements. Such a finding can be of use today since contemporary Latina/o social justice organizations generally ignore policing issues even amid a rise in national awareness regarding police abuse. In making history accessible to Mexican origin and Latina/o communities, these same communities may in-turn use the knowledge gained from historical research towards the betterment of their social positions—the foundational goal of Chicana/o history and the related field of Chicana/o Studies. Ultimately, this digital history project is intended to draw visitors to further explore the Chicana/o Civil Rights Movement within and beyond the plains.

Keywords: Chicana/o Movement, digital history, police brutality, newspapers, protests, student activism

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Authors: Jagbir Singh Kadyan, C. A. Suman Kadyan

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The researchers attempts to establish whether a relationship exists between the social activities undertaken & the funds that has been spent by the selected corporate organisations. Corporate listed on the (NSE) National Stock Exchange of India, under different categories shall be selected as a sample for the purpose of this study. The researches shall also study the dynamics of corporate social responsibility funding, financing & management of corporate social responsibility funds by the above selected organisations in the Indian context. The rationale behind selecting & undertaking specific corporate social responsibility activities shall be analysed & interpreted to discover the real drivers of corporate social responsibility. Besides above, an attempt shall further make an effort to understand & analyse the nature of impact on the selected corporate organisations on its overall performances due to the activities undertaken under their specific corporate social responsibility programs.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, organisational performance, national stock exchange, sustainability, society, health, education, sanitation, environment

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Authors: Suelane Garcia Fontes, Silvio Luiz Stanzani, Pedro L. Pizzigatti Corrła Ronaldo G. Morato

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Environmental changes and major natural disasters are most prevalent in the world due to the damage that humanity has caused to nature and these damages directly affect the lives of animals. Thus, the study of animal behavior and their interactions with the environment can provide knowledge that guides researchers and public agencies in preservation and conservation actions. Exploratory analysis of animal movement can determine the patterns of animal behavior and with technological advances the ability of animals to be tracked and, consequently, behavioral studies have been expanded. There is a lot of research on animal movement and behavior, but we note that a proposal that combines resources and allows for exploratory analysis of animal movement and provide statistical measures on individual animal behavior and its interaction with the environment is missing. The contribution of this paper is to present the framework AniMoveMineR, a unified solution that aggregates trajectory analysis and data mining techniques to explore animal movement data and provide a first step in responding questions about the animal individual behavior and their interactions with other animals over time and space. We evaluated the framework through the use of monitored jaguar data in the city of Miranda Pantanal, Brazil, in order to verify if the use of AniMoveMineR allows to identify the interaction level between these jaguars. The results were positive and provided indications about the individual behavior of jaguars and about which jaguars have the highest or lowest correlation.

Keywords: data mining, data science, trajectory, animal behavior

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Authors: Elle Nielsen

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Festival time on the island of St. Croix is an annual celebration of a melting pot of rich culture and heritage. All your senses are amplified by the colorful bodies that paint the streets with swaying hips commemorating the ancestors who didn’t have the voice to express themselves, let alone the bodily authority through movement. Within this atmosphere of jubilee, you will become a witness to how the melodies of Calypso and Soca music take full control of the body. As a result, the waist and hips in a trance follow the polyrhythmic patterns birthing the shunned movement practices of whining and wukkin up. Spectators on the sidelines of the festival events will either frown upon this spectacle of the whining bodies or gaze in awe at the performative history in a public space. The historical value of the Caribbean Carnival is being defaced by the transnational spectatorship using body politics to push more of a Eurocentric-influenced atmosphere. The themes within this investigation are the stereotypes of over-sexualization and resistance to assimilation to how black female bodies are being viewed in Carnival.

Keywords: women equity, West Indian movement vocabulary, critical dance studies, humanitarianism in dance academia

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: Mahdi Azizzadeh, Ali Nabizadeh

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This paper investigates whether ownership structure has significant effects on dividend policy and the percentage of cash dividend payout ratio in Iranian companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. We use a sample of 300 firm-years for 2010-2014. Results indicate that there is no significant relationship between family ownership and/or institutional ownership and dividend policy. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship between dividend policies in family-owned firms with high or low institutional ownership. However, our empirical test shows that family firms with a low level of institutional investors distribute more cash dividends on average than family firms with a high level of institutional ownership.

Keywords: family ownership, institutional ownership, dividend policy, dividend payout ratio

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Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

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Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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Authors: N. Ahmadi, H. Yousefnia, A. Bahrami-Samani

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Chitosan is a natural and biodegradable polysaccharide with special characteristic for application in intracavital therapy. 166Ho-chitosan has been reported for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma and RSV with promising results. The aim of this study was to prepare 186/188Re-chitosan for radiosynovectomy purposes and investigate the probability of its leakage from the knee joint. 186/188Re was produced by neutron irradiation of the natural rhenium in a research reactor. Chemical processing was performed to obtain (186/188Re)-NaReO4- according to the IAEA manual. A stock solution of chitosan was prepared by dissolving in 1 % acetic acid aqueous solution (10 mg/mL). 1.5 mL of this stock solution was added to the vial containing the activity and the mixture was stirred for 5 min in the room temperature. The radiochemical purity of the complex was checked by the ITLC method, showing the purity of higher than 98%. Distribution of the radiolabeled complex was determined after intra-articular injection into the knees of rats. Excellent retention was observed in the joint with approximately no activity in the other organs.

Keywords: chitosan, leakage, radiosynovectomy, rhenium

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: Thomas, Daniel Tajo, Kish

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Sight is primarily associated with the function of gathering and processing near and extended spatial information which is largely used to support self-determined interaction with the environment through self-directed movement and navigation. By contrast, hearing is primarily associated with the function of gathering and processing sequential information which may typically be used to support self-determined communication through the self-directed use of music and language. Blindness or the lack of vision is traditionally characterized by a lack of capacity to access spatial information which, in turn, is presumed to result in a lack of capacity for self-determined interaction with the environment due to limitations in self-directed movement and navigation. However, through a specific protocol of FlashSonar education developed by World Access for the Blind, the function of hearing can be expanded in blind people to carry out some of the functions normally associated with sight, that is to access and process near and extended spatial information to construct three-dimensional acoustic images of the environment. This perceptual education protocol results in a significant restoration in blind people of self-determined environmental interaction, movement, and navigational capacities normally attributed to vision - a new way to see. Thus, by expanding the function of hearing to process spatial information to restore self-determined movement, we are not only changing the meaning of blindness, and what it means to be blind, but we are also recasting the meaning of vision and what it is to see.

Keywords: echolocation, changing, sensory, function

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Authors: Sonay Ödemiş

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Movement Staff Notation System (MSNS) is a movement transcription, analyzing method, and it's been constantly improved since it was first developed in 2005. This method is based on human anatomy, is being used and applied in the lessons at The Department of Turkish Folk Dances in Istanbul Technical University, nowadays. In this research, it is aimed to discover, how MSNS can help to participants about learning the basic movements of lower extremity. This experiment has six volunteers who were randomly selected. Each volunteer has been graded for their dance backgrounds and all the volunteers have been studied for six weeks. Each week has included different topic and examples such as contacts on foot, jumps, timing, directions and basic symbols of MSNS. Examples have changed from easy to hard. On conclusion, 6 volunteer subjects were tested in final test. The tests were recorded with the camera. In this presentation, it will be explained and detailed the results of the reading test on MSNS. Some of important video records will be watched and interpreted after the test. As a conclusion, all the scores will be interpreted and assessed from different perspectives.

Keywords: dance notation, Turkish dances, reading test, Education

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Authors: Waqar Ahmad Butt, Gholamreza Vakili Nezhaad, Ali Soud Al Bemani, Yahya Al Wahaibi

Abstract:

Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) plays a great role in determining the displacement efficiency of different gas injection processes. Experimental techniques for MMP determination include industrially recommended slim tube, vanishing interfacial tension (VIT) and rising bubble apparatus (RBA). In this paper, MMP measurement study using slim tube and VIT experimental techniques for two different crude oil samples (M and N) both in live and stock tank oil forms is being presented. VIT measured MMP values for both 'M' and 'N' live crude oils were close to slim tube determined MMP values with 6.4 and 5 % deviation respectively. Whereas for both oil samples in stock tank oil form, VIT measured MMP showed a higher unacceptable deviation from slim tube determined MMP. This higher difference appears to be related to high stabilized crude oil heavier fraction and lack of multiple contacts miscibility. None of the different nine deployed crude oil and CO2 MMP computing correlations could result in reliable MMP, close to slim tube determined MMP. Since VIT determined MMP values for both considered live crude oils are in close match with slim tube determined MMP values, it confirms reliable, reproducible, rapid and cheap alternative for live crude oil MMP determination. Whereas VIT MMP determination for stock tank oil case needed further investigation about stabilization / destabilization mechanism of oil heavier ends and multiple contacts miscibility development issues.

Keywords: minimum miscibility pressure, interfacial tension, multiple contacts miscibility, heavier ends

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Authors: Ali Aqa Mohammad Jawad

Abstract:

Taking a relational approach, this paper analyzes the causal mechanisms associated with successful mobilization and rapid demobilization of the Enlightening Movement in post-2001 Afghanistan. The movement emerged after the state-owned Da Afghan Bereshna Sherkat (DABS) decided to divert the route for the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TUTAP) electricity project. The grid was initially planned to go through the Hazara-inhabited province of Bamiyan, according to Afghanistan’s Power Sector Master Plan. The reroute served as an aide-mémoire of historical subordination to other ethno-religious groups for the Hazara community. It was also perceived as deprivation from post-2001 development projects, financed by international aid. This torched the accumulated grievances, which then gave birth to the Enlightening Movement. The movement had a successful mobilization. However, it demobilized after losing much of its mobilizing capabilities through an amalgamation of external and internal relational factors. The successful mobilization yet rapid demobilization constitutes the puzzle of this paper. From the theoretical perspective, this paper is significant as it establishes the applicability of contentious politics theory to protest mobilizations that occurred in Afghanistan, a context-specific, characterized by ethnic politics. Both primary and secondary data are utilized to address the puzzle. As for the primary resources, media coverage, interviews, reports, public media statements of the movement, involved in contentious performances, and data from Social Networking Services (SNS) are used. The covered period is from 2001-2018. As for the secondary resources, published academic articles and books are used to give a historical account of contentious politics. For data analysis, a qualitative comparative historical method is utilized to uncover the causal mechanisms associated with successful mobilization and rapid demobilization of the Movement. In this pursuit, both mobilization and demobilization are considered as larger political processes that could be decomposed to constituent mechanisms. Enlightening Movement’s framing and campaigns are first studied to uncover the associated mechanisms. Then, to avoid introducing some ad hoc mechanisms, the recurrence of mechanisms is checked against another case. Mechanisms qualify as robust if they are “recurrent” in different episodes of contention. Checking the recurrence of causal mechanisms is vital as past contentious events tend to reinforce future events. The findings of this paper suggest that the public sphere in Afghanistan is drastically different from Western democracies known as the birthplace of social movements. In Western democracies, when institutional politics did not respond, movement organizers occupied the public sphere, undermining the legitimacy of the government. In Afghanistan, the public sphere is ethicized. Considering the inter- and intra-relational dynamics of ethnic groups in Afghanistan, the movement reduced to an erosive inter- and intra-ethnic conflict. This undermined the cohesiveness of the movement, which then kicked-off its demobilization process.

Keywords: enlightening movement, contentious politics, mobilization, demobilization

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