Search results for: premature mortality

Authors: Marah El-Beeli, Abdullah Balkhair, Zakaryia Al Muharmi, Samir Al Adawi, Mansoor Al-Jabri, Abdullah Al Rawahi, Hazaa Al Yahyae, Eman Al Balushi, Yahya M. Al-Farsi

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The health care service and the anticancer chemotherapeutics has changed the natural history of cancer into manageable chronic disease and improve the cancer patient’s lifestyle and increase the survival time. Despite that, still, infection is the major dilemma opposing the cancer patient either because of the clinical presentation of the cancer type and impaired immune system or as a consequence of anticancer therapy. This study has been conducted to1) track changes in the epidemiology of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections among patients with malignancies in the last five years. 2) To explore the causative pathogens and 3) the outcome of HA-BSIs in patients with a different types of malignancies. An ampi-directional study (retrospective and prospective follow up) of patients with malignancies admitted at Sultan Qaboos University hospital (570-bed tertiary hospital) during the study period (from January 2015 to December 2019). The cumulative frequency and prevalence rates of HA-BSIs by patients and isolates were calculated. In addition, the cumulative frequency of participants with single versus mixed infections and types of causative micro-organisms of HA-BSIs were obtained. A total of 1246 event of HA-BSIs has occurred during the study period. Nearly the third (30.25%) of the HA-BSI events was identified among 288 patients with malignancies. About 20% of cases were mixed infections (more than one isolate). Staphylococcus spp were the predominant isolated pathogen (24.7%), followed by Klebsiella spp (15.8%), Escherichia spp (13%), and Pseudomonas spp (9.3%). About half (51%) of cases died in the same year, and (64%) of the deaths occur within two weeks after the infection. According to the observations, no changes in the trends of epidemiology, causative pathogens, morbidity, and mortality rates in the last five years.

Keywords: epidemiology, haematological malignancies, hospital acquired bloodstream infections, solid malignancies

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Authors: Liong-Rung Liu, Yu-Hui Chiu, Wen-Han Chang

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Firearm injuries are high-energy injuries. The ballistic pathways could cause severe burns or chemical damages to vessels, musculoskeletal or other major organs. The high mortality rate is accompanied by complications such as sepsis. As laws prohibit gun possession, civilian gunshot wounds (GSW) are relatively rare in Taiwan. Our hospital, Mackay Memorial Hospital, located at the center of Taipei city is surrounded by nightclubs and red-light districts. Due to this unique location, our hospital becomes the first-line trauma center managing gunshot victims in Taiwan. To author’s best knowledge, there are few published research articles regarding this unique situation. We hereby analyze the distinct characteristics and length of stay (LOS) of GSW patients in the emergency room (ER) at Mackay Memorial Hospital. A 6-year retrospective analysis of 27 patients treated for GSW injuries from January 2012 to December 2017 was performed. The patients’ records were reviewed for the following analyses, 1) wound position and the correlated clinical presentations; 2) the LOS in ED of patients receiving emergency surgery for major organ or vascular injuries. We found males (96.3%) were injured by guns more often than females (3.7%) in all age groups. The most common injured site was in the extremities. With regards to the ER LOS, the average time were 72.2 ± 34.5 minutes for patients with triage I and 207.4 ± 143.9 minutes for patients with triage II. The ED LOS of patients whose ISS score were more than 15 was 59.9 ± 25.6 minutes, and 179.4 ± 119.8 minutes for patients whose ISS score were between 9 to 15, respectively. Among these 27 patients, 10 patients had emergency surgery and their average ED stay time was 104.5 ± 33.3 minutes. Even more, the average ED stay time could be shortened to 88.8 ± 32.3 minutes in the 5 patients with trauma team activation. In conclusion, trauma team activation in severe GSW patients indeed shortens the ED LOS and might initially improve the quality of patient care. This is the result of better trauma systems, including advances in care from emergency medical services and acute care surgical management.

Keywords: gunshot, length of stay, trauma, mortality

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Authors: J. Waita, S. Wamuhu, J. Makoyo, M. Rachel, T. Ngangari, W. Christine, M. Zipporah

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Contraceptive use is one of the key global strategies to alleviate maternal mortality. Global efforts through advocating for contraceptive uptake and service provision has led improved contraceptive prevalence. In Kenya maternal mortality rate has remained a challenged despites efforts by government and non-governmental organizations. Objective: To describe the uptake of contraceptives among women in Tunza Clinics, Kenya. Design and Methods: Ps Kenya through health care marketing fund is implementing a family planning program among its 350 Tunza fractional franchise facilities. Through private partnership, private owned facilities in low socio-economic areas are recruited and trained on contraceptive technology update. The providers are supported through facilitative supervision through a mobile based application Health Network Quality Improvement System (HNQIS) and interpersonal communication through 150 community based volunteers. The data analyzed in this paper was collected between January to July 2017 to show the uptake of modern Contraceptives among women in the Tunza franchise, method mix, age and distribution among the age bracket. Further analysis compares two different service delivery strategies; outreach and walk ins. Supportive supervision HNQIS scores was analyzed. Results: During the time period, a total of 132121 family planning clients were attended in 350 facilities. The average age of clients was 29.6 years. The average number of clients attended in the facilities per month was 18874. 73.7 %( n=132121) of the clients attended in the Tunza facilities were aged above 25 years while 22.1% 20-24 years and 4.2% 15-19 years. On contraceptive method mix, intra uterine device insertions clients contributed to 7.5%, implant insertions 15.3%, pills 11.2%, injections 62.7% while condoms and emergency pills had 2.7% and 0.6% respectively. Analysis of service delivery strategy indicated more than 79% of the clients were walk ins while 21% were attended to during outreaches. Uptake of long term contraceptive methods during outreaches was 73% of the clients while short term modern methods were 27%. Health Network Quality Improvement system assessment scores indicated 51% of the facilities scored over 90%, 25% scoring 80-89% while 21% scored below 80%. Conclusion: Preference for short term methods by women is possibly associated to cost as they are cheaper and easy to administer. When the cost of intra uterine device Implants is meant affordable during outreaches, the uptake is observed to increase. Making intra uterine device and implants affordable to women is a key strategy in increasing contraceptive prevalence hence averting maternal mortality.

Keywords: contraceptives, contraceptive uptake, low socio economic, supportive supervision

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Authors: Nila Febri Wilujeng, Helda Risman

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Enjoying stable security within its region for the last 50 years, ASEAN nowadays contends with the global context emerging dynamically, which brings about multidimensional challenges and threats such as terrorism, radicalism, armed rebellion, hijacking, and other non-traditional threats. Dealing with these circumstances, ASEAN member states tighten its capacity by enhancing regional cooperation and strategic information exchange among ASEAN member states so-called ASEAN Our Eyes. This initiative adopted for the sake of forestalling any possible threat posed by violent extremism, radicalization, and terrorism through timely strategic information exchange among ASEAN member states. By using qualitative method, this paper will utilize regional security complex and international cooperation theories in analyzing the process to examine ASEAN Our Eyes based on its terms of reference. As a result, it portrays that ASEAN Our Eyes is able to undermine the gaps in the realm of strategic information exchange in monitoring the movement of violent extremism, radicalism, foreign terrorist fighters, and crime-terror nexus. However, it remains premature as a strategic measure to encounter those threats in the years to come.

Keywords: regional cooperation, counter-terrorism, ASEAN our eyes, strategic information exchange

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Authors: Monalisha Ghosh, Asit Mohanty

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The lack of sanitation increases living costs, decreases spend on education and nutrition, lowers income earning potential, and threatens safety and welfare. This is especially true for rural India. Only 32% of rural households have their own toilets and that less than half of Indian households have a toilet at home. Of the estimated billion people in the world who defecate in the open, more than half reside in rural India. It is empirically established that poor sanitation leads to high infant mortality rate and low income generation in rural India. In India, 1,600 children die every day before reaching their fifth birthday and 24% of girls drop out of school as the lack of basic sanitation. Above all, lack of sanitation is not a symptom of poverty but a major contributing factor. According to census 2011, 67.3% of the rural households in the country still did not have access to sanitation facilities. India’s sanitation deficit leads to losses worth roughly 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) according to World Bank estimates by raising the disease burden in the country. The dropout rate for girl child is thirty percent in schools in rural areas because of lack of sanitation facilities for girl students. The productivity loss per skilled labors during a year is calculated at Rs.44, 160 in Odisha. The performance of the state of Odisha has not been satisfactory in improving sanitation facilities. The biggest challenge is triggering behavior change in vast section of rural population regarding need to use toilets. Another major challenge is funding and implementation for improvement of sanitation facility. In an environment of constrained economic resources, Public Private Partnership in form of performance based management or maintenance contract will be all the more relevant to improve the sanitation status in rural sector.

Keywords: rural sanitation, infant mortality rate, income, granger causality, pooled OLS method test public private partnership

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Authors: Debit Datta, Jeffrey J. Coleman, Scott A. Enebak, Lori G. Eckhardt

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Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) is a leading productive timber species in the southeastern USA. Over the past three years, an emerging threat is expressed by successive needle defoliation followed by stunted growth and tree mortality in loblolly pine plantations. Considering economic significance, it has now become a rising concern among landowners, forest managers, and forest health state cooperators. However, the symptoms of the disease were perplexed somewhat with root disease(s) and recurrently attributed to invasive Phytophthora species due to the similarity of disease nature and devastation. Therefore, the study investigated the potential causal agent of this disease and characterized the fungi associated with loblolly pine needle defoliation in the southeastern USA. Besides, 70 trees were selected at seven long-term monitoring plots at Chatom, Alabama, to monitor and record the annual disease incidence and severity. Based on colony morphology and ITS-rDNA sequence data, a total of 28 species of fungi representing 17 families have been recovered from diseased loblolly pine needles. The native brown-spot pathogen, Lecanosticta acicola, was the species most frequently recovered from unhealthy loblolly pine needles in combination with some other common needle cast and rust pathogen(s). Identification was confirmed using morphological similarity and amplification of translation elongation factor 1-alpha gene region of interest. Tagged trees were consistently found chlorotic and defoliated from 2019 to 2020. The current emergence of the brown-spot pathogen causing loblolly pine mortality necessitates the investigation of the role of changing climatic conditions, which might be associated with increased pathogen pressure to loblolly pines in the southeastern USA.

Keywords: brown-spot needle blight, loblolly pine, needle defoliation, plantation forestry

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Authors: Roohallah Fallah-Moshkani, Mohammad Ali Mohsenpour, Reza Ghiasvand, Hossein Khosravi-Boroujeni, Seyed Mehdi Ahmadi, Paula Brauer, Amin Salehi-Abargouei

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Purpose: Several investigations have proposed the protective association between dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) style diet and risk of cancers; however, they have led to inconsistent results. The present study aimed to systematically review the prospective cohort studies conducted in this regard and, if possible, to quantify the overall effect of using meta-analysis. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched for cohort studies published up to December 2017. Relative risks (RRs) which were reported for fully adjusted models and their confidence intervals were extracted for meta-analysis. Random effects model was incorporated to combine the RRs. Results: Sixteen studies were eligible to be included in the systematic review from which 8 reports were conducted on the effect of DASH on the risk of mortality from all cancer types, four on the risk of colorectal cancer, and three on the risk of colon and rectal cancer. Four studies examined the association with other cancers (breast, hepatic, endometrial, and lung cancer). Meta-analysis showed that high concordance with DASH significantly decreases the risk of all cancer types (RR=0.83, 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.80-0.85); furthermore participants who highly adhered to the DASH had lower risk of developing colorectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.75-0.83), colon (RR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.74-0.87) and rectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.63-0.98) cancer compared to those with the lowest adherence. Conclusions: DASH-style diet should be suggested as a healthy approach to protect from cancer in the community. Prospective studies exploring the effect on other cancer types and from regions other than the United States are highly recommended.

Keywords: cancer, DASH-style diet, dietary patterns, meta-analysis, systematic review

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Authors: Mikiyas Yonas Fufa

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- Maternal and child health service was a critical service which may have many risks and many maternal and newborn mortality is there if not managed properly. In middle and low countries like Ethiopia accessibility and quality of MCH service is low. During this COVID-19 Pandemics even the pervious access of MCH will be decreased. So many pregnant mothers are not attending their ANC, Delivery and other services in the hospital because they think they are more vulnerable to COVID-19. This condition may make an increase of maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. The innovation is an idea (which is development of a mobile app prepared by Maternity Foundation organization that focuses on midwifery care. The app has detailed videos on danger signs in pregnancy and procedures during labor and delivery). By telling this to clients it is planned to explore the perception, attitude towards this innovation and barriers to accepting it. What is planned to study is to explore the perceptions and barriers towards using of new idea which is innovation of mHealth on the MCH services. It is planned to interview the pregnant mothers who come for ANC at health facility and mothers who are absent from their appointment of services. In this way it is planned to explore how the mothers accept this idea and what barriers make them from accepting this idea. This is a phenomenological qualitative study and application of diffusion of innovation theory on the MCH services. The participant will be selected by using quota sampling methods for the mother who are interviewed at hospitals and snowball/quota sampling methods for the mother who are absent from their appointment/visits. Sample size of the participant depends on the saturation of data/idea. Each participant will be interviewed based the open-ended questionnaires, and the interview will be recorded then transcribed then finally analyzed by the open code 4.03. Beneficiaries: The federal ministry of health prepares them to develop the apk of mhealth. Health professionals in the MCH will have a low overload and accessibility and the quality of care will be increased during COVID-19 Different collaborations will be participated and promote the mother to enjoy the new idea.

Keywords: COVID-19, m health, MCH, diffusion of innovation

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Authors: Bahar Tunctan, Sefika Pinar Kucukkavruk, Meryem Temiz-Resitoglu, Demet Sinem Guden, Ayse Nihal Sari, Seyhan Sahan-Firat

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We hypothesized that rexinoids such as bexarotene, a selective retinoid X receptor α (RXRα) agonist, may be beneficial for preventing mortality due to inflammation associated with increased expression/activity of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) induced by lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Therefore, we investigated effects of bexarotene on the changes in circulating protein levels of iNOS (an index for systemic iNOS expression), myeloperoxidase (MPO) (an index for systemic inflammation), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (an index for systemic tissue injury) in LPS-induced systemic inflammation model resulting in septic shock in rats. Rats were injected with saline (4 ml/kg; i.p.), LPS (10 mg/kg; i.p.), dimethylsulphoxide (4 ml/kg, 0.1%; s.c.) at time 0. Mean arterial blood pressure and heart rate were measured using a tail-cuff device. Bexarotene (0.03, 0.1, 0.3, and 1 mg/kg; s.c.) was administered to separate groups of rats 1 h after injection of saline or LPS. The rats were sacrificed 4 h after saline or LPS injection and blood was collected for measurement of serum iNOS, MPO, and LDH protein levels. Blood pressure decreased by 31 mmHg and heart rate increased by 63 bpm in the LPS-treated rats. Bexarotene at 0.3 and 1 mg/kg doses caused 20% mortality 4 h after LPS injection. In the LPS-treated rats, serum iNOS, MPO, and LDH protein levels were increased. Bexarotene only at 0.1 mg/kg dose prevented the LPS-induced hypotension and increased in iNOS, MPO, and LDH protein levels. These data are consistent with the view that a decrease in systemic iNOS levels contributes to the beneficial effect of bexarotene to prevent the hypotension associated with inflammation and tissue injury during rat endotoxemia. [This work was financially supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (SBAG-109S121)].

Keywords: bexarotene, inflammation, iNOS, lipopolisaccharide, RXRa

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Authors: Geraldine G. Granados Vazquez

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Every human being is exposed to the risk of dying; wherein some of them are more susceptible than others depending on the cause. Therefore, the cause could be the hazard to die that a group or individual has, making this irreversible damage the condition of vulnerability. Risk is a dynamic concept; which means that it depends on the environmental, social, economic and political conditions. Thus vulnerability may only be evaluated in terms of relative parameters. This research is focusing specifically on building a model that evaluate the risk or propensity of death in past urban societies in connection with the everyday life of individuals, considering that death can be a consequence of two coexisting issues: hazard and the deterioration of the resistance to destruction. One of the most important discussions in bioarchaeology refers to health and life conditions in ancient groups; the researchers are looking for more flexible models that evaluate these topics. In that way, this research proposes a theoretical-methodological model that assess the vulnerability of death in past urban groups. This model pretends to be useful to evaluate the risk of death, considering their sociohistorical context, and their intrinsic biological features. This theoretical and methodological model, propose four areas to assess vulnerability. The first three areas use statistical methods or quantitative analysis. While the last and fourth area, which corresponds to the embodiment, is based on qualitative analysis. The four areas and their techniques proposed are a) Demographic dynamics. From the distribution of age at the time of death, the analysis of mortality will be performed using life tables. From here, four aspects may be inferred: population structure, fertility, mortality-survival, and productivity-migration, b) Frailty. Selective mortality and heterogeneity in frailty can be assessed through the relationship between characteristics and the age at death. There are two indicators used in contemporary populations to evaluate stress: height and linear enamel hypoplasias. Height estimates may account for the individual’s nutrition and health history in specific groups; while enamel hypoplasias are an account of the individual’s first years of life, c) Inequality. Space reflects various sectors of society, also in ancient cities. In general terms, the spatial analysis uses measures of association to show the relationship between frail variables and space, d) Embodiment. The story of everyone leaves some evidence on the body, even in the bones. That led us to think about the dynamic individual's relations in terms of time and space; consequently, the micro analysis of persons will assess vulnerability from the everyday life, where the symbolic meaning also plays a major role. In sum, using some Mesoamerica examples, as study cases, this research demonstrates that not only the intrinsic characteristics related to the age and sex of individuals are conducive to vulnerability, but also the social and historical context that determines their state of frailty before death. An attenuating factor for past groups is that some basic aspects –such as the role they played in everyday life– escape our comprehension, and are still under discussion.

Keywords: bioarchaeology, frailty, Mesoamerica, vulnerability

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Authors: Neha Singh

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The incidence of skin cancer has been rising worldwide due to excessive exposure to sun light. Climatic changes and depletion of ozone layer allow the easy entry of UV rays on earth, resulting skin damages such as sunburn, premature skin ageing, allergies and skin cancer. Researches have suggested many modes for protection of human skin against ultraviolet radiation; avoidance to outdoor activities, using textiles for covering the skin, sunscreen and sun glasses. However, this paper gives an insight about how textile material specially woven and knitted cotton can be efficiently utilized for protecting human skin from the harmful ultraviolet radiations by combining reactive dyes with Aloe Vera. Selection of the fabric was based on their utility and suitability as per the climate condition of the country for the upper and lower garment. A standard dyeing process was used, and Aloe Vera molecules were applied by in-micro encapsulation technique. After combining vat dyes with Aloe Vera excellent UPF (Ultra violet Protective Factor) was observed. There is a significant change in the UPF of vat dyed cotton fabric after treatment with Aloe Vera.

Keywords: UV protection, aloe vera, protective clothing, reactive dyes, cotton, woven and knits

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Authors: Reeta Devi, Hitender Kumar Tyagi, Dinesh Kumar

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In present scenario, cardiovascular problems are growing challenge for researchers and physiologists. As heart disease have no geographic, gender or socioeconomic specific reasons; detecting cardiac irregularities at early stage followed by quick and correct treatment is very important. Electrocardiogram is the finest tool for continuous monitoring of heart activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) is used to measure naturally occurring oscillations between consecutive cardiac cycles. Analysis of this variability is carried out using time domain, frequency domain and non-linear parameters. This paper presents HRV analysis of the online dataset for normal sinus rhythm (taken as healthy subject) and sudden cardiac death (SCD subject) using all three methods computing values for parameters like standard deviation of node to node intervals (SDNN), square root of mean of the sequences of difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), mean of R to R intervals (mean RR) in time domain, very low-frequency (VLF), low-frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and ratio of low to high frequency (LF/HF ratio) in frequency domain and Poincare plot for non linear analysis. To differentiate HRV of healthy subject from subject died with SCD, k –nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier has been used because of its high accuracy. Results show highly reduced values for all stated parameters for SCD subjects as compared to healthy ones. As the dataset used for SCD patients is recording of their ECG signal one hour prior to their death, it is therefore, verified with an accuracy of 95% that proposed algorithm can identify mortality risk of a patient one hour before its death. The identification of a patient’s mortality risk at such an early stage may prevent him/her meeting sudden death if in-time and right treatment is given by the doctor.

Keywords: early stage prediction, heart rate variability, linear and non-linear analysis, sudden cardiac death

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Authors: Sisay Tiroro Salato

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Background: Ethiopia has been implementing the maternal death surveillance and response system to provide real-time actionable information, including causes of death and contributing factors. Analysis of maternal mortality surveillance data was conducted to identify the causes and underlying factors in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: We carried out a retrospective surveillance data analysis of 324 maternal deaths reported in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 2017 to 2021. The data were extracted from the national maternal death surveillance and response database, including information from case investigation, verbal autopsy, and facility extraction forms. The data were analyzed by computing frequency and presented in numbers, proportions, and ratios. Results: Of 324 maternal deaths, 92% died in the health facilities, 6.2% in transit, and 1.5% at home. The mean age at death was 28 years, ranging from 17 to 45. The maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births was 77for the five years, ranging from 126 in 2017 to 21 in 2021. The direct and indirect causes of death were responsible for 87% and 13%, respectively. The direct causes included obstetric haemorrhage, hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, puerperal sepsis, embolism, obstructed labour, and abortion. The third delay (delay in receiving care after reaching health facilities) accounted for 57% of deaths, while the first delay (delay in deciding to seek health care) and the second delay (delay in reaching health facilities) and accounted for 34% and 24%, respectively. Late arrival to the referral facility, delayed management after admission, andnon-recognition of danger signs were underlying factors. Conclusion: Over 86% of maternal deaths were attributed by avoidable direct causes. The majority of women do try to reach health services when an emergency occurs, but the third delays present a major problem. Improving the quality of care at the healthcare facility level will help to reduce maternal death.

Keywords: maternal death, surveillance, delays, factors

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Authors: Ayesha Ali, Emilia Lindquist, Arif Jalal, Hannah Yusuf, Kayan Cheung, Rowan Eastabrook

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It is currently estimated that over a third of deaths in children under five in Tanzania are caused by acute respiratory infections (ARIs). However, despite being one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the developing world, its risk factors are poorly understood. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature published between 2015 and 2020 was conducted, focusing on risk factors for ARI in Tanzanian children under the age of five. 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Tanzania was analysed to supplement these findings with national data. 2224 papers were retrieved from two databases and were analysed by three independent reviewers. Thirteen papers were eligible for inclusion, covering a wide range of risk factors among which comorbidities (n=6), malnutrition (n=5), lack of parental education (n=4), poor socio-economic status (n=3), and delay in seeking healthcare (n=3) were the most cited risk factors. The risk factors with the highest reported risk ratios/odds ratios were lack of parental education (RR=11.5-14.5), followed by enrolment in school (RR=4.4), delay in seeking healthcare (RR=3.8) and cooking indoors (aOR =1.8-RR=5.5). The DHS data provided local context to these risk factors. For instance, the number of children experiencing symptoms of ARI in both urban and rural areas ranged between 4.5-5% in the two weeks prior to the survey. However, 79% of symptomatic children in Zanzibar received antibiotics for treatment compared to just 34% of those in the Southern Highlands. As demonstrated by both the systematic review and the DHS analysis, risk factors for ARI are predominantly socially determined, with Tanzania’s poorer rural children possessing the highest risk for ARI and more adverse health outcomes. Therefore, the burden of ARIs in Tanzanian children may be alleviated through the provision of appropriate treatment and parental education in rural areas.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection, child, health education, morbidity, mortality, pneumonia, Tanzania

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

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The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

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Authors: Muhammad Sufyan, Muhammad D. Gogi, Muhammad Arshad, Ahmad Nawaz, Muhammad Usman

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Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) universally known as silver fiber and is one of the most important cash crop of Pakistan. A wide array of pests constraints cotton production among which sucking insect pests cause serious losses. Mostly new chemistry insecticides used to control a wide variety of insect pests including sucking insect pests. In the present study efficacy of different neonicotinoids was evaluated against sucking insect pests of cotton in the field and in laboratory for red and dusky cotton bug. The experiment was conducted at Entomology Research Station, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD). Field trial was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of Confidence Ultra (Imidacloprid) 70% SL, Confidor (Imidacloprid) 20% SL, Kendo (Lambda cyhalothrin) 24.7 SC, Actara (Thiamethoxam) 25% WG, Forcast (Tebufenozide+ Emamectin benzoate) 8.8 EW and Timer (Emamectin benzoate) 1.9 EC at their recommended doses. The data was collected on per leaf basis of thrips, aphid, jassid and whitefly before 24 hours of spray. The post treatment data was recorded after 24, 48 and 72 hours. The fresh, non-infested and untreated cotton leaves was collected from the field and brought to the laboratory to assess the efficacy of neonicotinoids against red and dusky cotton bug. After data analysis all the insecticides were found effective against sucking pests. Confidence Ultra was highly effective against the aphid, jassid, and whitefly and gave maximum mortality, while showed non-significant results against thrips. In case of aphid plot which was treated with Kando 24.7 SC showed significant mortality after 72 hours of pesticide application. Similar trends were found in laboratory conditions with all these treatments by making different concentrations and had significant impact on dusky cotton bug and red cotton bug population after 24, 48 and 72 hours after application.

Keywords: cotton, laboratory and field conditions, neonicotinoids, sucking insect pests

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Authors: Umar Rehman, Holly Roy, K. T. Tsang, D. S. Jeyaretna, W Singleton, B. Fisher, P. A. Glew, J. Greig, Peter C. Whitfield

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Introduction: A brain abscess is a life-threatening condition, carrying significant mortality. It requires rapid identification and treatment. Management involves a combination of antibiotics and surgery. The aim of the current study was to identify common bacteria responsible for cerebral abscesses as well as the long term functional and neurological outcomes of patients following treatment in a retrospective series at a single UK neurosurgical centre. Methodology: We analysed patients that had received a diagnosis of 'cerebral abscess' or 'subdural empyema' between June 2002 and June 2018. This was done in the form of a retrospective review. The search resulted in a total of 180 patients; with 37 patients being excluded (spinal abscess, below 18 or non-abscess related admissions). Data were collected from medical case notes including information about demographics, comorbidities, immunosuppression, presentation, size/location of lesions, pathogens, treatment, and outcomes. Results: In total, we analysed 143 patients between the ages of 18-90. Focal neurological deficit and headaches were seen in 84% and 68% of patients respectively. 108 positive brain cultures were seen; with the largest proportion, 59.2% being gram-positive cocci, with strep intermedius being the most common pathogen identified in 13.9% of patients. Of the patients with positive blood cultures (n=11), 72.7% showed the same organism both in the blood and on the brain cultures. Long term outcomes (n=72) revealed that 48% of patients seizure-free without requiring anti-epileptics, 51.3% of patients had full recovery of their neurological symptoms. There was a mortality rate of 13.9% in the series. Conclusion: In conclusion, the largest bacterial cause of abscess within our population was due to gram-positive cocci. The majority of the patient demonstrated full neurological recovery with close to half of patients not requiring anti-epileptics following discharge.

Keywords: bacteria, cerebral abscess, long term outcome, neurological deficit

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Authors: Noemia Gomes de Mattos de Mesquita, José Eduardo Ferreira de Oliveira, Arimatea Quaresma Ferraz

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Stops to exchange cutting tool, to set up again the tool in a turning operation with CNC or to measure the workpiece dimensions have a direct influence on production. The premature removal of the cutting tool results in high cost of machining since the parcel relating to the cost of the cutting tool increases. On the other hand, the late exchange of cutting tool also increases the cost of production because getting parts out of the preset tolerances may require rework for its use when it does not cause bigger problems such as breaking of cutting tools or the loss of the part. Therefore, the right time to exchange the tool should be well defined when wanted to minimize production costs. When the flank wear is the limiting tool life, the time predetermination that a cutting tool must be used for the machining occurs within the limits of tolerance can be done without difficulty. This paper aims to show how the life of the cutting tool can be calculated taking into account the cutting parameters (cutting speed, feed and depth of cut), workpiece material, power of the machine, the dimensional tolerance of the part, the finishing surface, the geometry of the cutting tool and operating conditions of the machine tool, once known the parameters of Taylor algebraic structure. These parameters were raised for the ABNT 1038 steel machined with cutting tools of hard metal.

Keywords: machining, productions, cutting condition, design, manufacturing, measurement

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Authors: Morteza Naderi

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The Persian fallow deer was considered as a globally extinct species until 1956 when a small population was rediscovered from Dez Wildlife Refuge and Karkheh Wildlife Refuge in southwestern parts of Iran. After long species rehabilitation process, the species was transplanted to Dasht-e-Naz Wildlife Refuge in northern Iran, and from where, follow deer was introduced to the different selected habitats such as Ashk Island in Lake Uromiyeh National Park. During 12 years, (from 1978 to 1989) 58 individuals (25 males and 33 females) were transferred to Ask Island. The main threat to the established population was related to the freshwater shortage and existing just one single trough such as high mortality rate of adult males during rutting season, snake biting and dilutional hyponatremia. Desiccation of Lake Uromiyeh in recent years raised new challenges to the conservation process, as about 80 individuals, nearly one third of the population were died in 2011. Connection of Island to the mainland caused predators’ accessibility (such as wolf and Jackal) to the Ask Island and higher mortality because of follow deer attraction to the surrounding mainland farms. Conservation team faced such new challenges that may cause introduction plan to be probably failed. Investigations about habitat affinities and carrying capacity are the main basic researches in the management and conservation of the species. Logistic regression analysis showed that the presence of the different fresh water resources as well as Allium akaka and Pistacia atlantica are the main environmental variables affect Follow deer habitat selection. Habitat carrying capacity analysis both in summer and winter seasons indicated that Ashk Island can support 240±30 of Persian follow deer.

Keywords: carrying capacity, follow deer, lake Uromiyeh, microhabitat affinities, population oscillation, predation, sex ratio

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Authors: Awais Ali, Hesham Ali

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The absence of teeth through either premature loss or developmental absence is a common condition with potentially severe impact on affected individuals. Management of these cases presents a clinical challenge which may be difficult to resolve given the effects of tooth loss or hypodontia over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Treatment of such cases is often best provided by a multi-disciplinary team, where the patient’s expectations and care delivery can be optimally managed. Orthodontic treatment is often used to prepare the dentition in advance of restorative replacement of missing teeth. Conversely, the placement of implants may precede the delivery of orthodontic treatment and indeed may function as an adjunctive orthodontic procedure. We discuss the use of both approaches here and illustrate their clinical implementation with two case reports. The first case demonstrates the use of fixed appliances to prepare the mouth for an opposing implant-retained complete denture. A second case demonstrates the use of implant-retained crowns to provide orthodontic anchorage in a partially dentate patient. We propose that complex cases such as these should always be planned and treated by a multi-disciplinary team in order to optimise the delivery of care, patient experience, and treatment outcome. The presented cases add to the body of evidence in this area.

Keywords: orthodontics, dental implantology, hypodontia, multi-disciplinary

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Authors: Purnima Pandit

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Malaria remains one of the world’s most deadly infectious disease and arguably, the greatest menace to modern society in terms of morbidity and mortality. To choose the right treatment and to ensure a quality of life suitable for a specific patient condition, early and accurate diagnosis of malaria is essential. It reduces transmission of disease and prevents deaths. Our work focuses on designing an efficient, accurate fuzzy inference system for malaria diagnosis.

Keywords: fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, malaria disease, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: M. J. Alcedo, K. Ito, K. Maeda

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A stockperson has a significant influence on the productivity and welfare of their animals. This influence may be good or bad depending on their stockmanship competence. In this study, stockmanship competence (SC) is defined as the capacity of the stockperson to ensure the welfare of their animals by providing their animal’s needs. The study was conducted to evaluate the stockmanship competence of backyard goat raisers and to examine its relationship to productivity and economic profitability. This was made possible by interviewing 101 backyard goat raisers who have undergone farmer livestock school on integrated goat management (FLS IGM) in Region I, Philippines on September 3-30, 2012 and March 4-17, 2013. Secondary data needed were gathered from the local government agencies involved. Data on stockmanship, goat productivity and farmer’s income before and after attending FLS-IGM were gathered through a semi-structured interview. Questions for stockamnship were based on the Philippine recommends on goat production, tips on goat raising and other scientific literature. Stockmanship competence index score (SCIS) was computed by summing the raw scores derived from each components of SC divided by the total number of components. Pearson correlation through SPSS was used to see the relationship between SC, productivity and income. Result showed that majority raised native and upgraded goats. The computed mean SCIS before and after undergoing FLS-IGM was 38.53% and 75.81%, respectively, an improvement of 49.17%. Both index scores resulted in significant differences in productivity and income. The median mature weight and mortality rate of goats before FLS-IGM, where SC was low, was 14 kg and 50% respectively. On the other hand, after stockmanship had improved, the median mature weight increased to 19 kgs and mortality rate decreased to 11.11%. Likewise, fewer goat diseases were observed by farmers as compared before. With regards to income, there was 127.34% difference on the median net income derived by farmers. Result implies that improved stockmanship competence can lead not only to increased productivity and income of backyard goat raisers but also welfare of the animal.

Keywords: stockmanship, backyard goat production, animal welfare, Philippines

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Authors: Sathvika Reddy, Devi Revathi

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Background: In India, deliberate self-harm (DSH) with poisoning agents carries a significant impact on morbidity and mortality. Changes in the patterns of poisoning vary across various geographical locations. It is important to know the patterns in a given region in order to facilitate rapid clinical diagnosis, appropriate treatment to reduce associated morbidity and mortality. Aim and Objective: To study the patterns, treatment outcomes of acute poisoning in patients admitted to emergency wards in a tertiary care hospital and to provide poison information services. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted at M.S Ramaiah Memorial and Teaching Hospital from November 2016 to March 2017. The patient’s data was obtained from patient case sheet, interaction with health care professionals, interviewing patients and their caretakers (if possible), and were documented in a suitably designed form. Results: The study involved 131 patients with a mean age of 27.76 ± 15.5 years. Majority of the patients were in the age group 21-30 years, literates (n=53) dwelling in urban (n=113) areas belonging to upper middle class (n=50). Analgesics and antipyretics were commonly utilized in intentional drug overdosage (n=49). Envenomation constituted n=21(16.03%). Furthermore, a significant relationship was observed between marital status and self-poisoning (n=64) (P < 0.001) which commonly occurred through oral ingestion. The outcomes were correlated with the GCS and PSS system and n=85 recovered, n=17 were discharged against medical advice, and n=4 died, and n=4 were lost to follow up respectively. The poison information queries include drug overdose (n=29) and management related queries (n=22) provided majorly by residents (n=45) to update knowledge (n=11) and for better patient care (n=40). Conclusion: The trend in poisoning is dynamic. Medications were identified as the main cause of poisoning in urban areas of India. Educational programs with more emphasis on preventive measures are necessary to create awareness among the general public.

Keywords: poisoning, suicides, clinical pharmacist, envenomation, poison information services

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Authors: Michael Campbell, Malaz Elsaddig, Kevin Jones

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Background: Despite encouraging progress, global maternal mortality has remained stubbornly high since the declaration of the Millennium development goals. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for well over half of maternal deaths with Post-Partum Haemorrhage (PPH) being the lead cause. ‘In house’ simulation training delivered by local doctors may be a sustainable approach for improving emergency obstetric care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a Train-the-Trainer (TtT) model in a rural Ugandan hospital to ascertain whether it can feasibly improve practitioners’ management of PPH. Methods: Three Ugandan doctors underwent a training course to enable them to design and deliver simulation training. These doctors used MamaNatalie® models to simulate PPH scenarios for midwives, nurses and medical students. The main outcome was improvement in participants’ knowledge and confidence, assessed using self-reported scores on a 10-point scale. Results: The TtT model produced significant improvements in the confidence and knowledge scores of the ten participants. The mean confidence score rose significantly (p=0.0005) from 6.4 to 8.6 following the simulation training. There was also a significant increase in the mean knowledge score from 7.2 to 9.0 (p=0.04). Medical students demonstrated the greatest overall increase in confidence scores whilst increases in knowledge scores were largest amongst nurses. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that a TtT model can be used in a low resource setting to improve healthcare professionals’ confidence and knowledge in managing obstetric emergencies. This Train-the-Trainer model represents a sustainable approach to addressing skill deficits in low resource settings. We believe that its expansion across healthcare institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa will help to reduce the region’s high maternal mortality rate and step closer to achieving the ambitions of the Millennium development goals.

Keywords: low resource setting, post-partum haemorrhage, simulation training, train the trainer

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Lisa Fox, Jill Aylott

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There is a global need to identify ways to engage doctors in non-clinical matters such as medical leadership, service improvement and health system transformation. Using the core principles of Realistic Evaluation (RE), this study examined what works, for doctors of different grades, specialities and experience in an acute NHS Hospital Trust in the UK. Realistic Evaluation is an alternative to more traditional cause and effect evaluation models and seeks to understand the interdependencies of Context, Mechanism and Outcome proposing that Context (C) + Mechanism (M) = Outcome (O). In this study, the context, mechanism and outcome were examined from within individual medical leaders to determine what enables levels of medical engagement in a specific improvement project to reduce hospital inpatient mortality. Five qualitative case studies were undertaken with consultants who had regularly completed mortality reviews over a six month period. The case studies involved semi-structured interviews to test the theory behind the drivers for medical engagement. The interviews were analysed using a theory-driven thematic analysis to identify CMO configurations to explain what works, for whom and in what circumstances. The findings showed that consultants with a longer length of service became more engaged if there were opportunities to be involved in the beginning of an improvement project, with more opportunities to affect the design. Those that are new to a consultant role were more engaged if they felt able to apply any learning directly into their own settings or if they could use it as an opportunity to understand more about the organisation they are working in. This study concludes that RE is a useful methodology for better understanding the complexities of motivation and consultant engagement in a trust wide service improvement project. The study showed that there should be differentiated and bespoke training programmes to maximise each individual doctor’s propensity for medical engagement. The RE identified that there are different ways to ensure that doctors have the right skills to feel confident in service improvement projects.

Keywords: realistic evaluation, medical leadership, medical engagement, patient safety, service improvement

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Authors: Arjun Prakash, Samanvitha H.

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BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the commonest malignancy among women globally, with an estimated incidence of 2.3 million new cases as of 2020, representing 11.7% of all malignancies. As per Globocan data 2020, it accounted for 13.5% of all cancers and 10.6% of all cancer deaths in India. Early diagnosis and treatment can improve the overall morbidity and mortality, which necessitates the importance of differentiating benign from malignant breast masses. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the present study was to evaluate and compare the role of Digital Mammography (DM), B mode Ultrasound (USG), Shear Wave Elastography (SWE) and Strain Elastography (SE) in differentiating benign and malignant breast masses (ACR BI-RADS 3 - 5). Histo-Pathological Examination (HPE) was considered the Gold standard. MATERIALS & METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on 53 patients with 64 breast masses over a period of 10 months. All patients underwent DM, USG, SWE and SE. These modalities were individually assessed to know their accuracy in differentiating benign and malignant masses. All Digital Mammograms were done using the Fujifilm AMULET Innovality Digital Mammography system and all Ultrasound examinations were performed on SAMSUNG RS 80 EVO Ultrasound system equipped with 2 to 9 MHz and 3 – 16 MHz linear transducers. All masses were subjected to HPE. Independent t-test and Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test were used to assess continuous and categorical variables, respectively. ROC analysis was done to assess the accuracy of diagnostic tests. RESULTS: Of 64 lesions, 51 (79.68%) were malignant and 13 (20.31%) (p < 0.0001) were benign. SE was the most specific (100%) (p < 0.0001) and USG (98%) (p < 0.0001) was the most sensitive of all the modalities. E max, E mean, E max ratio, E mean ratio and Strain Ratio of the malignant masses significantly differed from those of the benign masses. Maximum SWE value showed the highest sensitivity (88.2%) (p < 0.0001) among the elastography parameters. A combination of USG, SE and SWE had good sensitivity (86%) (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: A combination of USG, SE and SWE improves overall diagnostic yield in differentiating benign and malignant breast masses. Early diagnosis and treatment of breast carcinoma will reduce patient mortality and morbidity.

Keywords: digital mammography, breast cancer, ultrasound, elastography

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Authors: Hana Gebremariam Liliso

Abstract:

This study investigates the factors contributing to the deterioration of thick asphalt pavements, such as rutting and cracking. We focus on the combined influence of traffic loads and pavement structure. This study uses a three-dimensional finite element model with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion to analyze the stress levels near the pavement's surface under realistic conditions. Our model considers various factors, including tire-pavement contact stresses, asphalt properties, moving loads, and dynamic analysis. This research suggests that cracking tends to occur between dual tires. Some key discoveries include the risk of cracking increases as temperatures rise; surface cracking at high temperatures is associated with distortional deformation; using a uniform contact stress distribution underestimates the risk of failure compared to realistic three-dimensional tire contact stress, particularly at high temperatures; the risk of failure is higher near the surface when there is a negative temperature gradient in the asphalt layer; and debonding beneath the surface layer leads to increased shear stress and premature failure around the interface.

Keywords: asphalt pavement, surface failure, 3d finite element model, multiaxial stress states, Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

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Authors: Shih-cheng Li, Ming-Yi Chung, Mei-Lien Chen

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Background: Plasticizers, such as phthalates and adipates, were substances added to a material that provided flexibility and durability to plastics such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Phthalates were generally recognized as an endocrine disrupter due to their estrogenic and anti-androgenic activities. Phthalates had the capacity to bind to estrogen receptors, and hence they might prolong menstrual cycles and increase the proportion of premature menopause. Recently, adipates such as di-2-ethylhexyl adipate (DEHA) and di-isononyl adipate (DiNA) had replaced phthalates and were now used for food packaging. Methods: MCF-7 cell lines were treated with di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP), di- 2-ethylhexyl adipate (DEHA), or di-isononyl adipate (DiNA) (10-6 , 10-5 , and 10-4 mol/l), using 17β-estradiol (10-8 mol/l) as a positive control. After incubations of 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours, the cells were tested using the alamarBlue assay. Results: The alamarBlue assay revealed that cell proliferation significantly increased after treatments of DEHP and DEHA for 24 hours at a concentration of 10-6, 10-5, and 10-4 mol/l. After more than 48 hours, cell proliferations in DEHP at 10-6, 10-5, and 10-4 mol/l significantly decreased compared to the control group. Conclusions: The present study demonstrates that adipates, as well as phthalates, were capable of inducing cell proliferation. We further used MDA-MB-231 cell lines to confirm that the proliferation effect was generated through binding to estrogen receptors.

Keywords: MCF-7, phthalate, adipate, endocrine disrupter

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