Search results for: early stage prediction

Authors: Chunhua Liao, Jinfei Wang, Bo Shan, Yang Song, Yongjun He, Taifeng Dong

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Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Canada. Forecasting of within-field variability of yield in winter wheat at the early stages is essential for precision farming. However, the crop yield modelling based on high spatial resolution satellite data is generally affected by the lack of continuous satellite observations, resulting in reducing the generalization ability of the models and increasing the difficulty of crop yield forecasting at the early stages. In this study, the correlations between Sentinel-2 data (vegetation indices and reflectance) and yield data collected by combine harvester were investigated and a generalized multivariate linear regression (MLR) model was built and tested with data acquired in different years. It was found that the four-band reflectance (blue, green, red, near-infrared) performed better than their vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, WDRVI and OSAVI) in wheat yield prediction. The optimum phenological stage for wheat yield prediction with highest accuracy was at the growing stages from the end of the flowering to the beginning of the filling stage. The best MLR model was therefore built to predict wheat yield before harvest using Sentinel-2 data acquired at the end of the flowering stage. Further, to improve the ability of the yield prediction at the early stages, three simple unsupervised domain adaptation (DA) methods were adopted to transform the reflectance data at the early stages to the optimum phenological stage. The winter wheat yield prediction using multiple vegetation indices showed higher accuracy than using single vegetation index. The optimum stage for winter wheat yield forecasting varied with different fields when using vegetation indices, while it was consistent when using multispectral reflectance and the optimum stage for winter wheat yield prediction was at the end of flowering stage. The average testing RMSE of the MLR model at the end of the flowering stage was 604.48 kg/ha. Near the booting stage, the average testing RMSE of yield prediction using the best MLR was reduced to 799.18 kg/ha when applying the mean matching domain adaptation approach to transform the data to the target domain (at the end of the flowering) compared to that using the original data based on the models developed at the booting stage directly (“MLR at the early stage”) (RMSE =1140.64 kg/ha). This study demonstrated that the simple mean matching (MM) performed better than other DA methods and it was found that “DA then MLR at the optimum stage” performed better than “MLR directly at the early stages” for winter wheat yield forecasting at the early stages. The results indicated that the DA had a great potential in near real-time crop yield forecasting at the early stages. This study indicated that the simple domain adaptation methods had a great potential in crop yield prediction at the early stages using remote sensing data.

Keywords: wheat yield prediction, domain adaptation, Sentinel-2, within-field scale

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Authors: Pegah Eshraghi, Zahra Sadat Zomorodian, Mohammad Tahsildoost

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Over the past decade, energy consumption in educational buildings has steadily increased. The purpose of this research is to provide a method to quickly predict the energy consumption of buildings using separate evaluation of zones and decomposing the building to eliminate the complexity of geometry at the early design stage. To produce this framework, machine learning algorithms such as Support vector regression (SVR) and Artificial neural network (ANN) are used to predict energy consumption and thermal comfort metrics in a school as a case. The database consists of more than 55000 samples in three climates of Iran. Cross-validation evaluation and unseen data have been used for validation. In a specific label, cooling energy, it can be said the accuracy of prediction is at least 84% and 89% in SVR and ANN, respectively. The results show that the SVR performed much better than the ANN.

Keywords: early stage of design, energy, thermal comfort, validation, machine learning

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Authors: Rajaian Hoonejani Mohammad, Eshraghi Pegah, Zomorodian Zahra Sadat, Tahsildoost Mohammad

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Over the past decade, energy consumption in educational buildings has steadily increased. The purpose of this research is to provide a method to quickly predict the energy consumption of buildings using separate evaluation of zones and decomposing the building to eliminate the complexity of geometry at the early design stage. To produce this framework, machine learning algorithms such as Support vector regression (SVR) and Artificial neural network (ANN) are used to predict energy consumption and thermal comfort metrics in a school as a case. The database consists of more than 55000 samples in three climates of Iran. Cross-validation evaluation and unseen data have been used for validation. In a specific label, cooling energy, it can be said the accuracy of prediction is at least 84% and 89% in SVR and ANN, respectively. The results show that the SVR performed much better than the ANN.

Keywords: early stage of design, energy, thermal comfort, validation, machine learning

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Authors: Seongjun Kim, Sanghoon Shim, Jinwooung Kim, Jaehwan Jung, Sung-Ah Kim

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As the development of information and communication technology, the convergence of machine learning of the ICT area and design is attempted. In this way, it is possible to grasp the correlation between various design elements, which was difficult to grasp, and to reflect this in the design result. In architecture, there is an attempt to predict the performance, which is difficult to grasp in the past, by finding the correlation among multiple factors mainly through machine learning. In architectural design area, some attempts to predict the performance affected by various factors have been tried. With machine learning, it is possible to quickly predict performance. The aim of this study is to propose a model that predicts performance according to the block arrangement of apartment housing through machine learning and the design alternative which satisfies the performance such as the daylight hours in the most similar form to the alternative proposed by the designer. Through this study, a designer can proceed with the design considering various design alternatives and accurate performances quickly from the early design stage.

Keywords: apartment housing, machine learning, multi-objective optimization, performance prediction

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Reeta Devi, Hitender Kumar Tyagi, Dinesh Kumar

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In present scenario, cardiovascular problems are growing challenge for researchers and physiologists. As heart disease have no geographic, gender or socioeconomic specific reasons; detecting cardiac irregularities at early stage followed by quick and correct treatment is very important. Electrocardiogram is the finest tool for continuous monitoring of heart activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) is used to measure naturally occurring oscillations between consecutive cardiac cycles. Analysis of this variability is carried out using time domain, frequency domain and non-linear parameters. This paper presents HRV analysis of the online dataset for normal sinus rhythm (taken as healthy subject) and sudden cardiac death (SCD subject) using all three methods computing values for parameters like standard deviation of node to node intervals (SDNN), square root of mean of the sequences of difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), mean of R to R intervals (mean RR) in time domain, very low-frequency (VLF), low-frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and ratio of low to high frequency (LF/HF ratio) in frequency domain and Poincare plot for non linear analysis. To differentiate HRV of healthy subject from subject died with SCD, k –nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier has been used because of its high accuracy. Results show highly reduced values for all stated parameters for SCD subjects as compared to healthy ones. As the dataset used for SCD patients is recording of their ECG signal one hour prior to their death, it is therefore, verified with an accuracy of 95% that proposed algorithm can identify mortality risk of a patient one hour before its death. The identification of a patient’s mortality risk at such an early stage may prevent him/her meeting sudden death if in-time and right treatment is given by the doctor.

Keywords: early stage prediction, heart rate variability, linear and non-linear analysis, sudden cardiac death

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

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Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. The earlier we predict the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven data sets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: software metrics, fault prediction, cross project, within project.

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Authors: Rana F. Obeidat, Suzanne S. Dickerson, Gregory G. Homish, Nesreen M. Alqaissi, Robin M. Lally

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Background: Despite the fact that breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among Jordanian women, practically nothing is known about their perceptions of early stage breast cancer and surgical treatment. Objective: To gain understanding of the diagnosis and surgical treatment experience of Jordanian women diagnosed with early stage breast cancer. Methods: An interpretive phenomenological approach was used for this study. A purposive sample of 28 Jordanian women who were surgically treated for early stage breast cancer within 6 months of the interview was recruited. Data were collected using individual interviews and analyzed using Heideggerian hermeneutical methodology. Results: Fear had a profound effect on Jordanian women’s stories of diagnosis and surgical treatment of early stage breast cancer. Women’s experience with breast cancer and its treatment was shaped by their pre-existing fear of breast cancer, the disparity in the quality of care at various health care institutions, and sociodemographic factors (e.g., education, age). Conclusions: Early after the diagnosis, fear was very strong and women lost perspective of the fact that this disease was treatable and potentially curable. To control their fears, women unconditionally trusted God, the health care system, surgeons, family, friends, and/or neighbors, and often accepted treatment offered by their surgeons without questioning. Implications for practice: Jordanian healthcare providers have a responsibility to listen to their patients, explore meanings they ascribe to their illness, and provide women with proper education and support necessary to help them cope with their illness.

Keywords: breast cancer, early stage, Jordanian, experience, phenomenology

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Ahmad Saleem

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Ethereum is the second largest crypto currency in blockchain ecosystem. Along with standard transactions, it supports smart contracts and NFT’s. Current research trends are focused on analyzing the overall structure of the network its growth and behavior. Ethereum addresses are anonymous and can be created on fly. The nature of Ethereum network and addresses make it hard to predict their behavior. The activity period of an ethereum address is not much analyzed. Using machine learning we can make early prediction about the disposability of the address. In this paper we analyzed the lifetime of the addresses. We also identified and predicted the disposable addresses using machine learning models and compared the results.

Keywords: blockchain, Ethereum, cryptocurrency, prediction

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Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M. L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

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Flash floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work, we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: decision support systems, early warning systems, flash flood, natural hazard

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Mahdi Alshamasin, Riad Al-Kasasbeh, Nikolay Korenevskiy

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We apply mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biologically active points of meridian structures. Amongst the diseases for which reflex diagnostics are effective are those of the stomach disease. It is shown that use of fuzzy logic decision-making yields good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of gastrointestinal tract diseases, depending on the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points). It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained by using fuzzy logic decision-making.

Keywords: acupuncture points, fuzzy logic, diagnostically important points (DIP), confidence factors, membership functions, stomach diseases

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Authors: Sokkhey Phauk, Takeo Okazaki

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The challenging task in educational institutions is to maximize the high performance of students and minimize the failure rate of poor-performing students. An effective method to leverage this task is to know student learning patterns with highly influencing factors and get an early prediction of student learning outcomes at the timely stage for setting up policies for improvement. Educational data mining (EDM) is an emerging disciplinary field of data mining, statistics, and machine learning concerned with extracting useful knowledge and information for the sake of improvement and development in the education environment. The study is of this work is to propose techniques in EDM and integrate it into a web-based system for predicting poor-performing students. A comparative study of prediction models is conducted. Subsequently, high performing models are developed to get higher performance. The hybrid random forest (Hybrid RF) produces the most successful classification. For the context of intervention and improving the learning outcomes, a feature selection method MICHI, which is the combination of mutual information (MI) and chi-square (CHI) algorithms based on the ranked feature scores, is introduced to select a dominant feature set that improves the performance of prediction and uses the obtained dominant set as information for intervention. By using the proposed techniques of EDM, an academic performance prediction system (APPS) is subsequently developed for educational stockholders to get an early prediction of student learning outcomes for timely intervention. Experimental outcomes and evaluation surveys report the effectiveness and usefulness of the developed system. The system is used to help educational stakeholders and related individuals for intervening and improving student performance.

Keywords: academic performance prediction system, educational data mining, dominant factors, feature selection method, prediction model, student performance

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Authors: Sam Khozama, Ali M. Mayya

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Breast cancer is one of the most common types in women. Early prediction of breast cancer helps physicians detect cancer in its early stages. Big cancer data needs a very powerful tool to analyze and extract predictions. Machine learning and deep learning are two of the most efficient tools for predicting cancer based on textual data. In this study, we developed a fusion model of two machine learning and deep learning models. To obtain the final prediction, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and ensemble learning with hyper parameters optimization are used, and score-level fusion is used. Experiments are done on the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) dataset after balancing and grouping the class categories. Five different training scenarios are used, and the tests show that the designed fusion model improved the performance by 3.3% compared to the individual models.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, cancer prediction, breast cancer, LSTM, fusion

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Authors: Jaewoo Choi, Ki-Tae Hwang, Eunyoung Ko

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Backgrounds/Aims: Patients with breast cancer are currently classified according to TNM stage. Nevertheless, the actual volume would be mis-estimated, and it would bring on inappropriate diagnosis. Tridimensional volume-stage derived from the ellipsoid formula was presented as useful measure. Methods: The medical records of 480 consecutive breast cancer between January 2001 and March 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. All patients were divided into three groups according to tumor volume by receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the ranges of each volume-stage were that V1 was below 2.5 cc, V2 was exceeded 2.5 and below 10.9 cc, and V3 was exceeded 10.9 cc. We analyzed outcomes of volume-stage and compared disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) between size-stage and volume-stage with variant intrinsic factor. Results: In the T2 stage, there were patients who had a smaller volume than 4.2 cc known as maximum value of T1. These findings presented that patients in T1c had poorer DFS than T2-lesser (mean of DFS 48.7 vs. 51.8, p = 0.011). Such is also the case in OS (mean of OS 51.1 vs. 55.3, p = 0.006). The cumulative survival curves for V1, V2 compared T1, T2 showed similarity in DFS (HR 1.9 vs. 1.9), and so did it for V3 compared T3 (HR 3.5 vs. 2.6) significantly. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that tumor volume had good feasibility on the prognosis of patients with breast cancer. We proposed that volume-stage should be considered for an additional stage indicator, particularly in early breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, tridimensional volume of tumor, TNM stage, volume stage

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Authors: L. Mtibaa, N. Baccouchi, S. Hannechi, R. Abid, R. Battikh, B. Jemli

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Cryptococcosis is an opportunistic fungal infection which is commonly associated with an immune-compomised state, especially HIV infection. Rare cases of cryptococcosis have been reported in patients with multiple myeloma (MM), and they are all at a late stage of the disease. However, the inaugural character of cryptococcosis revealing the MM at an early stage has never been reported to our best knowledge. We presented here a case of neuromeningeal cryptococcosis in a patient without any apparent underlying conditions, who has revealed IgA-λ MM. Early detection and treatment of cryptococcosis are essential to reduce morbidity and for a better outcome.

Keywords: Cryptococcosis, Cryptococcus, hematologic, malignancy

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Nataša Šarlija, Sanja Pfeifer

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This study analyzes the innovative orientation of the Croatian entrepreneurs. Innovative orientation is represented by the perceived extent to which an entrepreneur’s product or service or technology is new, and no other businesses offer the same product. The sample is extracted from the GEM Croatia Adult Population Survey dataset for the years 2003-2013. We apply descriptive statistics, t-test, Chi-square test and logistic regression. Findings indicate that innovative orientations vary with personal, firm, meso and macro level variables, and between different stages in entrepreneurship process. Significant predictors are occupation of the entrepreneurs, size of the firm and export aspiration for both early stage and established entrepreneurs. In addition, fear of failure, expecting to start a new business and seeing an entrepreneurial career as a desirable choice are predictors of innovative orientation among early stage entrepreneurs.

Keywords: multilevel determinants of the innovative orientation, Croatian early stage entrepreneurs, established businesses, GEM evidence

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Authors: Mohd Azman Abdul Latif, Erwan Basiron

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A flaw or drift from expected operational performance in one component (NAND, PMIC, controller, DRAM, etc.) may affect the reliability of the entire Solid State Drive (SSD) system. Therefore, it is important to ensure the required quality of each individual component through qualification testing specified using standards or user requirements. Qualification testing is time-consuming and comes at a substantial cost for product manufacturers. A highly technical team, from all the eminent stakeholders is embarking on reliability prediction from beginning of new product development, identify critical to reliability parameters, perform full-blown characterization to embed margin into product reliability and establish control to ensure the product reliability is sustainable in the mass production. The paper will discuss a comprehensive development framework, comprehending SSD end to end from design to assembly, in-line inspection, in-line testing and will be able to predict and to validate the product reliability at the early stage of new product development. During the design stage, the SSD will go through intense reliability margin investigation with focus on assembly process attributes, process equipment control, in-process metrology and also comprehending forward looking product roadmap. Once these pillars are completed, the next step is to perform process characterization and build up reliability prediction modeling. Next, for the design validation process, the reliability prediction specifically solder joint simulator will be established. The SSD will be stratified into Non-Operating and Operating tests with focus on solder joint reliability and connectivity/component latent failures by prevention through design intervention and containment through Temperature Cycle Test (TCT). Some of the SSDs will be subjected to the physical solder joint analysis called Dye and Pry (DP) and Cross Section analysis. The result will be feedbacked to the simulation team for any corrective actions required to further improve the design. Once the SSD is validated and is proven working, it will be subjected to implementation of the monitor phase whereby Design for Assembly (DFA) rules will be updated. At this stage, the design change, process and equipment parameters are in control. Predictable product reliability at early product development will enable on-time sample qualification delivery to customer and will optimize product development validation, effective development resource and will avoid forced late investment to bandage the end-of-life product failures. Understanding the critical to reliability parameters earlier will allow focus on increasing the product margin that will increase customer confidence to product reliability.

Keywords: e2e reliability prediction, SSD, TCT, solder joint reliability, NUDD, connectivity issues, qualifications, characterization and control

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Authors: Qasim Munye, Juned Islam, Haseeb Qureshi, Syed Jung

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Lung nodules are commonly identified in computed tomography (CT) scans by experienced radiologists at a relatively late stage. Early diagnosis can greatly increase survival. We propose using a pix2pix conditional generative adversarial network to generate realistic images simulating early-stage lung nodule growth. We have applied deep images prior to 2341 slices from 895 computed tomography (CT) scans from the Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) dataset to generate pseudo-healthy medical images. From these images, 819 were chosen to train a pix2pix network. We observed that for most of the images, the pix2pix network was able to generate images where the nodule increased in size and intensity across epochs. To evaluate the images, 400 generated images were chosen at random and shown to a medical student beside their corresponding original image. Of these 400 generated images, 384 were defined as satisfactory - meaning they resembled a nodule and were visually similar to the corresponding image. We believe that this generated dataset could be used as training data for neural networks to detect lung nodules at an early stage or to improve the accuracy of such networks. This is particularly significant as datasets containing the growth of early-stage nodules are scarce. This project shows that the combination of deep image prior and generative models could potentially open the door to creating larger datasets than currently possible and has the potential to increase the accuracy of medical classification tasks.

Keywords: medical technology, artificial intelligence, radiology, lung cancer

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Authors: Ekrem Canli, Thomas Glade

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The precise prediction of rainfall in space and time is a key element to most landslide early warning systems. Unfortunately, the spatial variability of rainfall in many early warning applications is often disregarded. A common simplification is to use uniformly distributed rainfall to characterize aerial rainfall intensity. With spatially differentiated rainfall information, real-time comparison with rainfall thresholds or the implementation in process-based approaches might form the basis for improved landslide warnings. This study suggests an automated workflow from the hourly, web-based collection of rain gauge data to the generation of spatially differentiated rainfall predictions based on kriging. Because the application of kriging is usually a labor intensive task, a simplified and consequently automated variogram modeling procedure was applied to up-to-date rainfall data. The entire workflow was carried out purely with open source technology. Validation results, albeit promising, pointed out the challenges that are involved in pure distance based, automated geostatistical interpolation techniques for ever-changing environmental phenomena over short temporal and spatial extent.

Keywords: kriging, landslide early warning system, spatial rainfall prediction, variogram modelling, web scraping

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Authors: Selvaprakash Ramalingam, Rabi N. Sahoo, Dharmendra Saraswat, A. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan, Joydeep Mukerjee, Viswanathan Chinnasamy, K. K. Chaturvedi, Sanjeev Kumar

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Rice is one of the most important staple food crops in the world. Among the various diseases that affect rice crops, rice blast is particularly significant, causing crop yield and economic losses. While the plant has defense mechanisms in place, such as chemical indicators (proteins, salicylic acid, jasmonic acid, ethylene, and azelaic acid) and resistance genes in certain varieties that can protect against diseases, susceptible varieties remain vulnerable to these fungal diseases. Early prediction of rice blast (RB) disease is crucial, but conventional techniques for early prediction are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Hyperspectral remote sensing techniques hold the potential to predict RB disease at its asymptomatic stage. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate the prediction of RB disease at the asymptomatic stage using non-imaging hyperspectral ASD spectroradiometer under controlled laboratory conditions. We applied statistical spectral discrimination theory to identify unknown spectra of M. Oryzae, the fungus responsible for rice blast disease. The infrared (IR) region was found to be significantly affected by RB disease. These changes may result in alterations in the absorption, reflection, or emission of infrared radiation by the affected plant tissues. Our research revealed that the protein spectrum in the IR region is impacted by RB disease. In our study, we identified strong correlations in the region (Amide group - I) around X 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm with the Lambda / Lambda derived spectra methods for protein detection. During the stages when the disease is developing, typically from day 3 to day 5, the plant's defense mechanisms are not as effective. This is especially true for the PB-1 variety of rice, which is highly susceptible to rice blast disease. Consequently, the proteins in the plant are adversely affected during this critical time. The spectral contour plot reveals the highly correlated spectral regions 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm associated with RB disease infection. Based on these spectral sensitivities, we developed new spectral disease indices for predicting different stages of disease emergence. The goal of this research is to lay the foundation for future UAV and satellite-based studies aimed at long-term monitoring of RB disease.

Keywords: rice blast, asymptomatic stage, spectral sensitivity, IR

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, C. S. Actsu

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This study is on the prediction of feature performance of undergraduate students with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). With the growing decline in the quality academic performance of undergraduate students, it has become essential to predict the students’ feature academic performance early in their courses of first and second years and to take the necessary precautions using such prediction-based information. The feed forward multilayer neural network model was used to train and develop a network and the test carried out with some of the input variables. A result of 80% accuracy was obtained from the test which was carried out, with an average error of 0.009781.

Keywords: academic performance, artificial neural network, prediction, students

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Authors: Abdulla Al Hmoudi

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The impacts and costs of natural disasters on people, properties and the environment is often severe when they occur on a large scale or when not prepared for. Factors such as impacts of climate change, urban growth, poor planning to mention a few, have continued to significantly increase the frequencies and aggravate the impacts of natural hazards across the world; the United Arab Emirates (UAE) inclusive. The lack of deployment of an early warning system, low risk and hazard knowledge and impact of natural hazard experienced in some communities in the UAE have emphasised the need for more effective early warning systems. This paper focuses on the collaborative approach taken to instituting and implementing an early warning system. Using mixed methods 888 people completed the questionnaire and eight people were interviewed in Abu Dhabi. The results indicate that the collaborative approach to early warning system is UAE is needed, but lacks essential principles of the early warning system and currently underutilised. It is recommended that the collaborative early warning system is applied at every stage of the early warning system with the specific responsibility of each stakeholder and actor.

Keywords: community, early warning system, emergency management, UAE

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Authors: Sun-Mi Park, Ji-Hyun Jung, Min-Jung Kang

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Software (SW) education is scheduled to be included in the National curriculum in South Korea by 2018. However, Korean national kindergarten curriculum has been excepted from the revision of the entire Korean national school curriculum including software education. Even though the SW education has not been considered a part of current national kindergarten curriculum, there is a growing interest of adopting software education into the ECE practice. Teachers might be a key element in introducing and implementing new educational change such as SW education. In preparation for the adoption of SW education in ECE, it might be necessary to figure out ECE teachers’ perception and attitudes toward early childhood software education. For this study, 219 ECE teachers’ concern level in SW education was surveyed by using the Stages of Concern Questionnaire (SoCQ). As a result, the teachers' concern level in SW education is the highest at stage 0-Unconcerned and is high level in stage 1-informational, stage 2-personal, and stage 3-management concern. Thus, a non-user pattern was mostly indicated. However, compared to a typical non-user pattern, the personal and informative concern level is slightly high. The 'tailing up' phenomenon toward stage 6-refocusing was shown. Therefore, the pattern aspect close to critical non-user ever appeared to some extent. In addition, a significant difference in concern level was shown at all stages depending on the awareness of necessity. Teachers with SW training experience showed higher intensity only at stage 0. There was statistically significant difference in stage 0 and 6 depending on the future implementation decision. These results will be utilized as a resource in building ECE teachers’ support system according to his or her concern level of SW education.

Keywords: concerns-based adoption model (CBAM), early childhood education teachers, software education, Stages of Concern (SoC)

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Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

Abstract:

Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Achitphol Chookaew, Paramee Thongsukhsai, Patamarerk Engsontia, Narongwit Nakwan, Pritsana Raugrut

Abstract:

Lung cancer is one of the most common malignancies and primary cause of death due to cancer worldwide. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the main subtype in which majority of patients present with advanced-stage disease. Herein, we analyzed differentially expressed genes to find potential biomarkers for lung cancer diagnosis as well as prognostic markers. We used transcriptome data from our 2 NSCLC patients and public data (GSE81089) composing of 8 NSCLC and 10 normal lung tissues. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between NSCLC and normal tissue and between early-stage and late-stage NSCLC were analyzed by the DESeq2. Pairwise correlation was used to find the DEGs with false discovery rate (FDR) adjusted p-value £ 0.05 and |log2 fold change| ³ 4 for NSCLC versus normal and FDR adjusted p-value £ 0.05 with |log2 fold change| ³ 2 for early versus late-stage NSCLC. Bioinformatic tools were used for functional and pathway analysis. Moreover, the top ten genes in each comparison group were verified the expression and survival analysis via GEPIA. We found 150 up-regulated and 45 down-regulated genes in NSCLC compared to normal tissues. Many immnunoglobulin-related genes e.g., IGHV4-4, IGHV5-10-1, IGHV4-31, IGHV4-61, and IGHV1-69D were significantly up-regulated. 22 genes were up-regulated, and five genes were down-regulated in late-stage compared to early-stage NSCLC. The top five DEGs genes were KRT6B, SPRR1A, KRT13, KRT6A and KRT5. Keratin 6B (KRT6B) was the most significantly increased gene in the late-stage NSCLC. From GEPIA analysis, we concluded that IGHV4-31 and IGKV1-9 might be used as diagnostic biomarkers, while KRT6B and KRT6A might be used as prognostic biomarkers. However, further clinical validation is needed.

Keywords: differentially expressed genes, early and late-stages, gene ontology, non-small cell lung cancer transcriptomics

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Praveen Chandramenon, Andrew Gascoyne, Fideline Tchuenbou-Magaia

Abstract:

Aquaponics offers a simple conclusive solution to the food and environmental crisis of the world. This approach combines the idea of Aquaculture (growing fish) to Hydroponics (growing vegetables and plants in a soilless method). Smart Aquaponics explores the use of smart technology including artificial intelligence and IoT, to assist farmers with better decision making and online monitoring and control of the system. Identification of different growth stages of Swiss Chard plants and predicting its harvest time is found to be important in Aquaponic yield management. This paper brings out the comparative analysis of a standard Aquaponics with a Vermiponics (Aquaponics with worms), which was grown in the controlled environment, by implementing IoT and deep learning-based growth stage segregation and harvest time prediction of Swiss Chards before and after applying an optimal freshwater replenishment. Data collection, Growth stage classification and Harvest Time prediction has been performed with and without water replenishment. The paper discusses the experimental design, IoT and sensor communication with architecture, data collection process, image segmentation, various regression and classification models and error estimation used in the project. The paper concludes with the results comparison, including best models that performs growth stage segregation and harvest time prediction of the Aquaponic and Vermiponic testbed with and without freshwater replenishment.

Keywords: aquaponics, deep learning, internet of things, vermiponics

Procedia PDF Downloads 43