Search results for: frailty

Authors: Shu-Ching Chiu, Shu-Fang Chang

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The World Health Organization (WHO) has been actively developing intervention programs to deal with geriatric frailty. In its White Paper on Healthcare Policy 2020, the Department of Health, Bureau of Health Promotion proposed that active aging and the prevention of disability are essential for elderly people to maintain good health. The paper recommended five main policies relevant to this objective, one of which is the prevention of frailty and disability. Scholars have proposed a number of different criteria to diagnose and assess frailty; no consistent or normative standard of measurement is currently available. In addition, many methods of assessment are recursive, which can easily result in recall bias. Due to the relationship between frailty and physical fitness with regard to co-morbidity, it is important that academics optimize the criteria used to assess frailty by objectively evaluating the physical fitness of senior citizens. This study used a review of the literature to identify fitness indicators suitable for measuring frailty in the elderly. This study recommends that measurement criteria be integrated to produce an optimized predictive value for frailty score. Healthcare professionals could use this data to detect frailty at an early stage and provide appropriate care to prevent further debilitation and increase longevity.

Keywords: frailty, aging, physical fitness, optimized criteria, healthcare

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Authors: Bo-Jian Wu, Si-Heng Wu

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Objectives: Frailty is a condition of a person who has chronic health problems complicated by a loss of physiological reserve and deteriorating functional abilities. The frailty syndrome was defined by Fried and colleagues, i.e., weight loss, fatigue, decreased grip strength, slow gait speed, and low physical activity. However, to our best knowledge, there have been rare studies exploring the prevalence of frailty and its association with falls in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: A total of 559 hospitalized patients were recruited from a public psychiatric hospital in 2013. The majority of the subjects were males (361, 64.6%). The average age was 53.5 years. All patients received the assessment of frailty status defined by Fried and colleagues. The status of a fall within one year after the assessment of frailty, clinical and demographic data was collected from medical records. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio of associated factors. Results : A total of 9.2% of the participants met the criteria of frailty. The percentage of patients having a fall was 7.2%. Age were significantly associated with frailty (odds ratio = 1.057, 95% confidence interval = 1.025-1.091); however, sex was not associated with frailty (p = 0.17). After adjustment for age and sex, frailty status was associated with a fall (odds ratio = 3.62, 95% confidence interval = 1.58-8.28). Concerning the components of frailty, decreased grip strength (odds ratio = 2.44, 95% confidence interval = 1.16-5.14), slow gait speed (odds ratio = 2.82, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-6.53), and low physical activity (odds ratio = 2.64, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-5.78) were found to be associated with a fall. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the prevalence of frailty was about 10% in hospitalized patients with chronic patients with schizophrenia, and frailty status was significant with a fall in this group. By using the status of frailty, it may be beneficial to potential target candidates having fallen in the future as early as possible. The effective intervention of prevention of further falls may be given in advance. Our results bridge this gap and open a potential avenue for the prevention of falls in patients with schizophrenia. Frailty is certainly an important factor for maintaining wellbeing among these patients.

Keywords: fall, frailty, schizophrenia, Taiwan

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Authors: Kunthida Kulprateepunya, Napat Boontiam, Bunthita Phuasa, Chatsuda Kankayant, Bantoeng Polsawat, Sumran Poontong

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Frailty is the thin line between good health and illness. The syndrome is more common in the elderly who transition from strong to weak. (Vulnerability). Fragility can prevent and promote healthy recovery before it goes into disability. This research and development aim to analyze the situation analysis of frailty of the elderly, develop a program, and evaluate the effect of a health promotion program to prevent and solve the problem of frailty among the elderly. The research consisted of 3 phases: 1) analysis of the frailty situation, 2) development of a model, 3) evaluation of the effectiveness of the model. Samples were 328, 122 elderlies using the multi-stage random sampling method. The research instrument was a frailty questionnaire use of the five symptoms, the main characteristics were muscle weakness, slow walking, low physical activity. Fatigue and unintentional weight loss, criteria frailty use more than or equal to three or more symptoms are frailty. Data were analyzed by descriptive and t-test dependent test statistics. The findings showed three parts. First, frailty in the elderly was 23.05 percentage and 56.70% pre-frailty. Second, it was development of a health promotion program to prevent and solve the problem of frailty the elderly with a combination of Nine-Square Exercise, Elastic Band Exercise, Elastic Coconut Shell. Third, evaluation of the effectiveness of the model by comparison of the elderly's get up and go test, the average time before using the program was 14.42 and after using the program was 8.57. It was statistically significant at the .05 level. In conclusion, the findings can used to develop guidelines to promote the health of the frailty elderly.

Keywords: elderly, fragile, nine-square exercise, elastic coconut shell

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Authors: Naqvi Shraddha Rathi

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During the aging process, physical frailty may develop. A more sedentary lifestyle, a reduction in metabolic cell mass and, consequently, lower energy expenditure and dietary intake are important contributors to the progression of frailty. A decline in intake is in turn associated with the risk of developing a suboptimal nutritional state or multiple micro nutrient deficiencies.The tantalizing potential of nanotechnology is to fabricate and combine nano scale approaches and building blocks to make useful tools and, ultimately, interventions for medical science, including nutritional science, at the scale of ∼1–100 nm.

Keywords: aging, cells frailty, micronutrients, biochemical reactivity

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Sohaib Raza, Parvez Mantry

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Frailty is a multi-system impairment associated with stressors such as age, disease, and invasive surgical procedures. This multi-system impairment can lead to increased post-transplant mortality and functional decline. Additionally, the prevalence and/or severity of frailty increases when patient pre-habilitation is unsatisfactory or lacking. We conducted a retrospective study to examine whether the COVID-19 Pandemic, and subsequent lack of patient access to pre-habilitation and physical therapy resources, led to an increase in the prevalence and severity of frailty, sarcopenia, and other comorbidities including diabetes, hypertension, and COPD. Secondarily, we examined the correlation between patient survival rate and liver frailty index as well as muscle wasting/sarcopenia. Data were analyzed in order to correlate variables associated with these parameters. Three hundred sixty-nine liver transplant candidates at Methodist Dallas Medical Center were administered pre-transplant frailty assessments, which consisted of chair stands, grip strength, and position balance time. A frailty score less than 3.2 indicated a robust condition, a score from 3.3 to 4.4 indicated a pre-frail condition, and a score greater than 4.5 indicated a frail condition. Greater than 50 percent of patients were found to have muscle wasting in the COVID-19 period (March 13, 2020 to February 28, 2022), an increase of 16.5 percent from the pre-COVID period (April 1st, 2018 to March 12, 2020). Additionally, sarcopenia was associated with a two-fold increase in patient mortality rate. Furthermore, high liver frailty index scores were associated with increased patient mortality. However, there was no significant difference in liver frailty index or number of comorbidities between patients in the two cohorts. Conclusion: The COVID-19 Pandemic exacerbated sarcopenia-related muscle wasting in liver transplant candidates, and patient survival rate was directly correlated with liver frailty index score and the presence of sarcopenia.

Keywords: frailty, sarcopenia, covid-19, patient mortality, pre-habilitation, liver transplant candidates

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Authors: Mamta Jat

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Background: The increased longevity has resulted in the increase in the percentage of the global population aged 60 years or over. With this “demographic transition” towards ageing, “epidemiologic transition” is also taking place characterised by growing share of non-communicable diseases in the overall disease burden. So, many of the older adults are ageing with chronic disease and high levels of frailty which often results in lower levels of quality of life. Although frailty may be increasingly common in older adults, prevention or, at least, delay the onset of late-life adverse health outcomes and disability is necessary to maintain the health and functional status of the ageing population. This is an effort using SAGE data to assess levels of frailty and its socio-demographic correlates and its relation with quality of life in LMICs of India, China, Ghana, Mexico, Russia and South Africa in a comparative perspective. Methods: The data comes from multi-country Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE), consists of nationally representative samples of older adults in six low and middle-income countries (LMICs): China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation and South Africa. For our study purpose, we will consider only 50+ year’s respondents. The logistic regression model has been used to assess the correlates of frailty. Multinomial logistic regression has been used to study the effect of frailty on QOL (quality of life), controlling for the effect of socio-economic and demographic correlates. Results: Among all the countries India is having highest mean frailty in males (0.22) and females (0.26) and China with the lowest mean frailty in males (0.12) and females (0.14). The odds of being frail are more likely with the increase in age across all the countries. In India, China and Russia the chances of frailty are more among rural older adults; whereas, in Ghana, South Africa and Mexico rural residence is protecting against frailty. Among all countries china has high percentage (71.46) of frail people in low QOL; whereas Mexico has lowest percentage (36.13) of frail people in low QOL.s The risk of having low and middle QOL is significantly (p<0.001) higher among frail elderly as compared to non–frail elderly across all countries with controlling socio-demographic correlates. Conclusion: Women and older age groups are having higher frailty levels than men and younger aged adults in LMICs. The mean frailty scores demonstrated a strong inverse relationship with education and income gradients, while lower levels of education and wealth are showing higher levels of frailty. These patterns are consistent across all LMICs. These data support a significant role of frailty with all other influences controlled, in having low QOL as measured by WHOQOL index. Future research needs to be built on this evolving concept of frailty in an effort to improve quality of life for frail elderly population, in LMICs setting.

Keywords: Keywords: Ageing, elderly, frailty, quality of life

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Authors: Nursel Koyuncu, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Frailty model is a survival model that takes into account the unobserved heterogeneity for exploring the relationship between the survival of an individual and several covariates. In the recent years, proposed survival models become more complex and this feature causes convergence problems especially in large data sets. Therefore selection of sample from these big data sets is very important for estimation of parameters. In sampling literature, some authors have defined new sampling schemes to predict the parameters correctly. For this aim, we try to see the effect of sampling design in semi-parametric frailty model. We conducted a simulation study in R programme to estimate the parameters of semi-parametric frailty model for different sample sizes, censoring rates under classical simple random sampling and ranked set sampling schemes. In the simulation study, we used data set recording 17260 male Civil Servants aged 40–64 years with complete 10-year follow-up as population. Time to death from coronary heart disease is treated as a survival-time and age, systolic blood pressure are used as covariates. We select the 1000 samples from population using different sampling schemes and estimate the parameters. From the simulation study, we concluded that ranked set sampling design performs better than simple random sampling for each scenario.

Keywords: frailty model, ranked set sampling, efficiency, simple random sampling

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Authors: Joelle Fong

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Older persons are at greatest risk of becoming frail. As survival to the age of 80 and beyond continues to increase, the health and frailty of older Americans has garnered much recent attention among policy makers and healthcare administrators. This paper examines patterns in old-age frailty within a multistate actuarial model that characterizes the stochastic process of biological ageing. Using aggregate population-level U.S. mortality data, we implement a stochastic aging model to examine cohort trends and gender differences in frailty distributions for older Americans born 1865 – 1894. The stochastic ageing model, which draws from the fields of actuarial science and gerontology, is well-established in the literature. The implications for public health insurance programs are also discussed. Our results suggest that, on average, women tend to be frailer than men at older ages and reveal useful insights about the magnitude of the male-female differential at critical age points. Specifically, we note that the frailty statuses of males and females are actually quite comparable from ages 65 to 80. Beyond age 80, however, the frailty levels start to diverge considerably implying that women are moving quicker into worse states of health than men. Tracking average frailty by gender over 30 successive birth cohorts, we also find that frailty levels for both genders follow a distinct peak-and-trough pattern. For instance, frailty among 85-year old American survivors increased in years 1954-1963, decreased in years 1964-1971, and again started to increase in years 1972-1979. A number of factors may have accounted for these cohort differences including differences in cohort life histories, differences in disease prevalence, differences in lifestyle and behavior, differential access to medical advances, as well as changes in environmental risk factors over time. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings on spending for long-term care programs within the broader health insurance system.

Keywords: actuarial modeling, cohort analysis, frail elderly, health

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Authors: Erwin Stolz, Hannes Mayerl, Anja Waxenegger, Wolfgang Freidl

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Research has often found poverty associated with adverse health outcomes, but it is unclear which (interplay of) mechanisms actually translate low economic resources into poor physical health. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of educational, material, psychosocial and behavioural factors in explaining the poverty-health association in old age. We analysed 28,360 observations from 11,390 community-dwelling respondents (65+) from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004-2013, 10 countries). We used multilevel growth curve models to assess the impact of combined income- and asset poverty risk on old age frailty index levels and trajectories. In total, 61.8% of the variation of poverty risk on frailty levels could be explained by direct and indirect effects, thereby highlighting the role of material and particularly psychosocial factors, such as perceived control and social isolation. We suggest strengthening social policy and public health efforts in order to fight poverty and its deleterious effects from early age on and to broaden the scope of interventions with regard to psychosocial factors.

Keywords: frailty, health inequality, old age, poverty

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Authors: Izabela P. Vatanabe, Rafaela Peron, Patricia Manzine, Marcia R. Cominetti

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Introduction: Considering the increase in life expectancy of world population, there is an emerging concern in health services to allocate better care and care to elderly, through promotion, prevention and treatment of health. It has been observed that frailty syndrome is prevalent in elderly people worldwide and this complex and heterogeneous clinical syndrome consist of the presence of physical frailty associated with cognitive dysfunction, though in absence of dementia. This can be characterized by exhaustion, unintentional weight loss, decreased walking speed, weakness and low level of physical activity, in addition, each of these symptoms may be a predictor of adverse outcomes such as hospitalization, falls, functional decline, institutionalization, and death. Cognitive frailty is a recent concept in literature, which is defined as the presence of physical frailty associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) however in absence of dementia. This new concept has been considered as a subtype of frailty, which along with aging process and its interaction with physical frailty, accelerates functional declines and can result in poor quality of life of the elderly. MCI represents a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in view of high conversion rate for this disease. Comorbidities and physical frailty are frequently found in AD patients and are closely related to heterogeneity and clinical manifestations of the disease. The decreased platelets ADAM10 levels in AD patients, compared to cognitively healthy subjects, matched by sex, age and education. Objective: Based on these previous results, this study aims to evaluate whether ADAM10 platelet levels of could act as a biomarker of cognitive frailty. Methods: The study was approved by Ethics Committee of Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar) and conducted in the municipality of São Carlos, headquarters of Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar). Biological samples of subjects were collected, analyzed and then stored in a biorepository. ADAM10 platelet levels were analyzed by western blotting technique in subjects with MCI and compared to subjects without cognitive impairment, both with and without presence of frailty. Statistical tests of association, regression and diagnostic accuracy were performed. Results: The results have shown that ADAM10/β-actin ratio is decreased in elderly individuals with cognitive frailty compared to non-frail and cognitively healthy controls. Previous studies performed by this research group, already mentioned above, demonstrated that this reduction is still higher in AD patients. Therefore, the ADAM10/β-actin ratio appears to be a potential biomarker for cognitive frailty. The results bring important contributions to an accurate diagnosis of cognitive frailty from the perspective of ADAM10 as a biomarker for this condition, however, more experiments are being conducted, using a high number of subjects, and will help to understand the role of ADAM10 as biomarker of cognitive frailty and contribute to the implementation of tools that work in the diagnosis of cognitive frailty. Such tools can be used in public policies for the diagnosis of cognitive frailty in the elderly, resulting in a more adequate planning for health teams and better quality of life for the elderly.

Keywords: ADAM10, biomarkers, cognitive frailty, elderly

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

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Authors: Mark Davies, Carolyn Wallace, Christina Lloydwin, Tom Powell

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Background: Frailty is increasingly recognized as a public health problem within an aging population. It is often characterized as an accumulation of clinical symptoms with progressive decline. We contend that dehydration is potentially the missing link driving the cycle of frailty; it contributes to malnutrition and cognitive decline and is a risk factor for other conditions. Frailty may also impact on fluid intake in cognitively intact older adults, indicating the cyclical nature of dehydration contributing to increasing frailty. Aim: To examine the relationships between fluid, hydration, and frailty in older adults in order to determine what works, for whom, how, why, and in what circumstances. Methods: A Realist Synthesis was first undertaken with n=50 studies, leading to the development of a Refined Programme Theory (RPT) articulating what hydration interventions work, for whom, to what degree, in what contexts, and how & why. Within the subsequent evaluation, the RPT was further confirmed/refuted/refined following semi-structured interviews with n=8 participants (healthcare professionals and patients). The RAMESES Quality Standards were followed throughout the study. Results: The Refined Programme Theory (RPT) highlighted three factors that result in optimized hydration for frail older people, i.e., Developing an Understanding Around Hydration, Empowering Participation, and System Reconfiguration. Our RPT indicates that hydration interventions work by developing an understanding of the importance of hydration, mitigating physical & cognitive barriers, increasing the agency of the patient, using a prompting process to reinforce drinking behavior, and routinizing hydration as a dimension of overall care. Conclusion: The study indicates that a greater understanding of the importance of hydration is required for all parties. Patients also require physical and psychological support if they are to be active agents in meeting their hydration needs. At a wider ‘system’ level, organizations must work in an integrated manner introducing processes that enable continuing professional development (CPD), encourage ongoing holistic assessment, and routinize hydration support.

Keywords: frailty, dehydration, older adults, realist review, realist evaluation

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Authors: Malika Kharouf, Aly Chkeir, Khac Tuan Huynh

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Detecting change points in time series data is a challenging problem, especially in scenarios where there is limited prior knowledge regarding the data’s distribution and the nature of the transitions. We present a method designed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of high-dimensional time series data, where the number of variables closely matches the data length. Our objective is to achieve unbiased test statistic estimation under the null hypothesis. We delve into the utilization of Random Matrix Theory to analyze the behavior of our test statistic within a high-dimensional context. Specifically, we illustrate that our test statistic converges pointwise to a normal distribution under the null hypothesis. To assess the effectiveness of our proposed approach, we conduct evaluations on a simulated dataset. Furthermore, we employ our method to examine changes aimed at detecting frailty in the elderly.

Keywords: change point detection, hypothesis tests, random matrix theory, frailty in elderly

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Authors: Vignesh Ratnaraj, Jaewon Chang

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Background: Frailty is associated with poorer outcomes in cardiac surgery, but the heterogeneity in frailty assessment tools makes it difficult to ascertain its true impact in cardiac surgery. Slow gait speed is a simple, validated, and reliable marker of frailty. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the effect of slow gait speed on postoperative cardiac surgical patients. Methods: PubMED, MEDLINE, and EMBASE databases were searched from January 2000 to August 2021 for studies comparing slow gait speed and “normal” gait speed. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were composite mortality and major morbidity, AKI, stroke, deep sternal wound infection, prolonged ventilation, discharge to a healthcare facility, and ICU length of stay. Results: There were seven eligible studies with 36,697 patients. Slow gait speed was associated with an increased likelihood of in-hospital mortality (risk ratio [RR]: 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.87–2.87). Additionally, they were more likely to suffer from composite mortality and major morbidity (RR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.38–1.66), AKI (RR: 2.81; 95% CI: 1.44–5.49), deep sternal wound infection (RR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.59–1.98), prolonged ventilation >24 h (RR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.48–2.63), reoperation (RR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.05–1.82), institutional discharge (RR: 2.08; 95% CI: 1.61–2.69), and longer ICU length of stay (MD: 21.69; 95% CI: 17.32–26.05). Conclusion: Slow gait speed is associated with poorer outcomes in cardiac surgery. Frail patients are twofold more likely to die during hospital admission than non-frail counterparts and are at an increased risk of developing various perioperative complications.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, gait speed, recovery, frailty

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Authors: Zhao Jiashen, Serene Goh, Jerry Goo, Anthony Li, Lim Woan Wui, Paul Drakeford, Chen Qing Yan

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Introduction: Emergency laparotomy (EL) is one of the most common surgeries done in Singapore to treat acute abdominal pathologies. A significant proportion of these surgeries are performed in the geriatric population (65 years and older), who tend to have the highest postoperative morbidity, mortality, and highest utilization of intensive care resources. Frailty, the state of vulnerability to adverse outcomes from an accumulation of physiological deficits, has been shown to be associated with poorer outcomes after surgery and remains a strong driver of healthcare utilization and costs. To date, there is little understanding of the impact it has on emergency laparotomy outcomes. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of frailty on postoperative morbidity, mortality, and length of stay after EL. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in two tertiary centres in Singapore, Tan Tock Seng Hospital and Khoo Teck Puat Hospital the period from January to December 2019. Patients aged 65 years and above who underwent emergency laparotomy for intestinal obstruction, perforated viscus, bowel ischaemia, adhesiolysis, gastrointestinal bleed, or another suspected acute abdomen were included. Laparotomies performed for trauma, cholecystectomy, appendectomy, vascular surgery, and non-GI surgery were excluded. The Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) developed by the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) was used. A score of 1 to 4 was defined as non-frail and 5 to 7 as frail. We compared the clinical outcomes of elderly patients in the frail and non-frail groups. Results: There were 233 elderly patients who underwent EL during the study period. Up to 26.2% of patients were frail. Patients who were frail (CFS 5-9) tend to be older, 79 ± 7 vs 79 ± 5 years of age, p <0.01. Gender distribution was equal in both groups. Indication for emergency laparotomies, time from diagnosis to surgery, and presence of consultant surgeons and anaesthetists in the operating theatre were comparable (p>0.05). Patients in the frail group were more likely to receive postoperative geriatric assessment than in the non-frail group, 49.2% vs. 27.9% (p<0.01). The postoperative complications were comparable (p>0.05). The length of stay in the critical care unit was longer for the frail patients, 2 (IQR 1-6.5) versus 1 (IQR 0-4) days, p<0.01. Frailty was found to be an independent predictor of 90-day mortality but not age, OR 2.9 (1.1-7.4), p=0.03. Conclusion: Up to one-fourth of the elderly who underwent EL were frail. Patients who were frail were associated with a longer length of stay in the critical care unit and a 90-day mortality rate of more than three times that of their non-frail counterparts. PPOSSUM was a better predictor of 90-day mortality in the non-frail group than in the frail group. As frailty scoring was a significant predictor of 90-day mortality, its integration into acute surgical units to facilitate shared decision-making and discharge planning should be considered.

Keywords: frailty elderly, emergency, laparotomy

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Authors: Segen Asayehegn

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Introduction: In Tigray, Ethiopia, next to cervical cancer, breast cancer is one of the most common cancer health problems for women. Objectives: This article is proposed to identify the prospective and potential risk factors affecting the time-to-first-recurrence of breast cancer patients in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: The data were taken from the patient’s medical record that registered from January 2010 to January 2020. The study considered a sample size of 1842 breast cancer patients. Powerful non-parametric and parametric shared frailty survival regression models (FSRM) were applied, and model comparisons were performed. Results: Out of 1842 breast cancer patients, about 1290 (70.02%) recovered/cured the disease. The median cure time from breast cancer is found at 12.8 months. The model comparison suggested that the lognormal parametric shared a frailty survival regression model predicted that treatment, stage of breast cancer, smoking habit, and marital status significantly affects the first recurrence of breast cancer. Conclusion: Factors like treatment, stages of cancer, and marital status were improved while smoking habits worsened the time to cure breast cancer. Recommendation: Thus, the authors recommend reducing breast cancer health problems, the regional health sector facilities need to be improved. More importantly, concerned bodies and medical doctors should emphasize the identified factors during treatment. Furthermore, general awareness programs should be given to the community on the identified factors.

Keywords: acceleration factor, breast cancer, Ethiopia, shared frailty survival models, Tigray

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Authors: Walid A. Alkeridy, Arwa Aljasser, Khalid Mohammed Alayed, Saad Alsaad, Amani S. Alqahtani, Claire Ann Lim, Sultan H. Alamri, Doaa Zainhom Mekkawy, Mohammed Al-Sofiani

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Introduction: The history of publicly funded Home Health Care (HHC) service in Saudi Arabia dates back to 1991. The first HC program was launched to provide palliative home care services for patients with terminal cancer. Thereafter, more programs launched across Saudi Arabia most remarkably was launching the national program for HHC by the Ministry Of Health (MOH) in 2008. The national HHC MOH program is mainly providing long-term care home care services for over 40,000 Saudi citizens. The scope of the HHC service program provided by the Saudi MOH is quite diverse, ranging from basic nursing care to specialized care programs, e.g., home peritoneal dialysis, home ventilation, home infusion therapy, etc. Objectives: The primary aim of our study is to report the prevalence of chronic conditions among Saudi people receiving long-term HHC services. Secondary aims include identifying the predictors of mortality among individuals receiving long-term HHC services and studying the association between frailty and poor health outcomes among HHC users. Methods: We conducted a retrospective and cross-sectional data collection from participants receiving HHC services at King Saud University Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Data were collected from electronic health records (EHR), patient charts, and interviewing caregivers from the year 2019 to 2022. We assessed functional performance by Katz's activity of daily living and the Bristol Activity of Daily Living Scale (BADLS). A trained health care provider assessed frailty using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Mortality was assessed by reviewing the death certificates if patients were hospitalized through discharge status ascertainment from EHR. Results: The mean age for deceased individuals in HHC was 78.3 years. Over twenty percent of individuals receiving HHC services were readmitted to the hospital. The following variables were statistically significant between deceased and alive individuals receiving HHC services; clinical frailty scale, the total number of comorbid conditions, and functional performance based on the KATZ activity of daily living scale and the BADLS. We found that the strongest predictors for mortality were pressure ulcers which had an odds ratio of 3.75 and p-value of < 0.0001, and the clinical frailty scale, which had an odds ratio of 1.69 and p-value of 0.002, using multivariate regression analysis. In conclusion, our study found that pressure ulcers and frailty are the strongest predictors of mortality for individuals receiving home health care services. Moreover, we found a high rate of annual readmission for individuals enrolled in HHC, which requires further analysis to understand the possible contributing factors for the increased rate of hospital readmission and develop strategies to address them. Future studies should focus on designing quality improvement projects aimed at improving the quality of life for individuals receiving HHC services, especially those who have pressure ulcers at the end of life.

Keywords: homecare, Saudi, prevalence, chronic

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Authors: Geraldine G. Granados Vazquez

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Every human being is exposed to the risk of dying; wherein some of them are more susceptible than others depending on the cause. Therefore, the cause could be the hazard to die that a group or individual has, making this irreversible damage the condition of vulnerability. Risk is a dynamic concept; which means that it depends on the environmental, social, economic and political conditions. Thus vulnerability may only be evaluated in terms of relative parameters. This research is focusing specifically on building a model that evaluate the risk or propensity of death in past urban societies in connection with the everyday life of individuals, considering that death can be a consequence of two coexisting issues: hazard and the deterioration of the resistance to destruction. One of the most important discussions in bioarchaeology refers to health and life conditions in ancient groups; the researchers are looking for more flexible models that evaluate these topics. In that way, this research proposes a theoretical-methodological model that assess the vulnerability of death in past urban groups. This model pretends to be useful to evaluate the risk of death, considering their sociohistorical context, and their intrinsic biological features. This theoretical and methodological model, propose four areas to assess vulnerability. The first three areas use statistical methods or quantitative analysis. While the last and fourth area, which corresponds to the embodiment, is based on qualitative analysis. The four areas and their techniques proposed are a) Demographic dynamics. From the distribution of age at the time of death, the analysis of mortality will be performed using life tables. From here, four aspects may be inferred: population structure, fertility, mortality-survival, and productivity-migration, b) Frailty. Selective mortality and heterogeneity in frailty can be assessed through the relationship between characteristics and the age at death. There are two indicators used in contemporary populations to evaluate stress: height and linear enamel hypoplasias. Height estimates may account for the individual’s nutrition and health history in specific groups; while enamel hypoplasias are an account of the individual’s first years of life, c) Inequality. Space reflects various sectors of society, also in ancient cities. In general terms, the spatial analysis uses measures of association to show the relationship between frail variables and space, d) Embodiment. The story of everyone leaves some evidence on the body, even in the bones. That led us to think about the dynamic individual's relations in terms of time and space; consequently, the micro analysis of persons will assess vulnerability from the everyday life, where the symbolic meaning also plays a major role. In sum, using some Mesoamerica examples, as study cases, this research demonstrates that not only the intrinsic characteristics related to the age and sex of individuals are conducive to vulnerability, but also the social and historical context that determines their state of frailty before death. An attenuating factor for past groups is that some basic aspects –such as the role they played in everyday life– escape our comprehension, and are still under discussion.

Keywords: bioarchaeology, frailty, Mesoamerica, vulnerability

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Authors: Kuei-Yu Chien, Hsiu-Yu Chiu, Chia-Nan Chen, Shu-Chen Chen

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Background: Frailty is associated with decreased physical performances that affect mobility of the elderly. Time up and go test (TUG) was the common method to evaluate mobility in the community. The purpose of this study was to compare the parameters in different stages of Time up and go test (TUG) and physical performance between pre-frail elderly (PFE) and non-frail elderly (NFE). We also investigated the relationship between TUG parameters and physical performance. Methods: Ninety-two community-dwelling older adults were as participants in this study. Based on Canadian Study of Health and Aging Clinical Frailty Scale, 22 older adults were classified as PFE (71.77 ± 6.05 yrs.) and 70 were classified as NFE (71.2 ± 5.02 yrs.). We performed body composition and physical performance, including balance, muscular strength/endurance, mobility, cardiorespiratory endurance, and flexibility. Results: Pre-frail elderly took significantly longer time than NFE in TUG test (p=.004). Pre-frail elderly had lower turning average angular velocity (p = .017), turning peak angular velocity (p = .041) and turning-stand to sit peak angular velocity (p = .037) than NFE. The turning related parameters related to open-eye stand on right foot, 30-second chair stand test, back scratch, and 2-min step tests. Conclusions: Turning average angular velocity, turning peak angular velocity and turning-stand to sit peak angular velocity mainly affected the TUG performance. We suggested that static/dynamic balance, agility, flexibility, and muscle strengthening of lower limbs exercise were important to PFE.

Keywords: mobility, aglity, active ageing, functional fitness

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Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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Authors: Njabulo Ncube, Elena Kulinskaya, Nicholas Steel, Dmitry Pshezhetskiy

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Life expectancy in the United Kingdom (UK) has been near constant since 2010, particularly for the individuals of 65 years and older. This trend has been also noted in several other countries. This slowdown in the increase of life expectancy was concurrent with the increase in the number of deaths caused by non-communicable diseases. Of particular concern is the world-wide exponential increase in the number of diabetes related deaths. Previous studies have reported increased mortality hazards among diabetics compared to non-diabetics, and on the differing effects of antidiabetic drugs on mortality hazards. This study aimed to estimate the all-cause mortality hazards and related life expectancies among type 2 diabetes (T2DM) patients in the UK using the time-variant Gompertz-Cox model with frailty. The study also aimed to understand the major causes of the change in life expectancy growth in the last decade. A total of 221 182 (30.8% T2DM, 57.6% Males) individuals aged 50 years and above, born between 1930 and 1960, inclusive, and diagnosed between 2000 and 2016, were selected from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database of the UK primary care data and followed up to 31 December 2016. About 13.4% of participants died during the follow-up period. The overall all-cause mortality hazard ratio of T2DM compared to non-diabetic controls was 1.467 (1.381-1.558) and 1.38 (1.307-1.457) when diagnosed between 50 to 59 years and 60 to 74 years, respectively. The estimated life expectancies among T2DM individuals without further comorbidities diagnosed at the age of 60 years were 2.43 (1930-1939 birth cohort), 2.53 (1940-1949 birth cohort) and 3.28 (1950-1960 birth cohort) years less than those of non-diabetic controls. However, the 1950-1960 birth cohort had a steeper hazard function compared to the 1940-1949 birth cohort for both T2DM and non-diabetic individuals. In conclusion, mortality hazards for people with T2DM continue to be higher than for non-diabetics. The steeper mortality hazard slope for the 1950-1960 birth cohort might indicate the sub-population contributing to a slowdown in the growth of the life expectancy.

Keywords: T2DM, Gompetz-Cox model with frailty, all-cause mortality, life expectancy

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Authors: Kiran Datta, Daniella Holland-Hart, Anthony Byrne

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Introduction: Oesophago-gastric (OG) cancers are the fifth commonest in the UK, accounting for over 12,000 deaths each year. Most patients will present at later stages of the disease, with only 21% of patients with stage 4 disease surviving longer than a year. As a result, many patients are unsuitable for curative surgery and instead receive palliative treatment to improve prognosis and symptom burden. However, palliative chemotherapy can result in significant toxicity: almost half of the patients are unable to complete their chemotherapy regimen, with this proportion rising significantly in older and frailer patients. In addition, clinical trials often exclude older and frailer patients due to strict inclusion criteria, meaning there is limited evidence to guide which patients are most likely to benefit from palliative chemotherapy. Inappropriate chemotherapy administration is at odds with the goals of palliative treatment and care, which are to improve quality of life, and this also represents a significant resource expenditure. This literature review aimed to examine and appraise evidence regarding treatment resilience in order to guide clinicians in identifying the most suitable candidates for palliative chemotherapy. Factors influencing treatment resilience were assessed, as measured by completion rates, dose reductions, and toxicities. Methods: This literature review was conducted using rapid review methodology, utilising modified systematic methods. A literature search was performed across the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases, with results limited to papers within the last 15 years and available in English. Key inclusion criteria included: 1) participants with either oesophageal, gastro-oesophageal junction, or gastric cancers; 2) patients treated with palliative chemotherapy; 3) available data evaluating the association between baseline participant characteristics and treatment resilience. Results: Of the 2326 papers returned, 11 reports of 10 studies were included in this review after excluding duplicates and irrelevant papers. Treatment resilience factors that were assessed included: age, performance status, frailty, inflammatory markers, and sarcopenia. Age was generally a poor predictor for how well patients would tolerate chemotherapy, while poor performance status was a better indicator of the need for dose reduction and treatment non-completion. Frailty was assessed across one cohort using multiple screening tools and was an effective marker of the risk of toxicity and the requirement for dose reduction. Inflammatory markers included lymphopenia and the Glasgow Prognostic Score, which assessed inflammation and hypoalbuminaemia. Although quick to obtain and interpret, these findings appeared less reliable due to the inclusion of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy. Sarcopenia and body composition were often associated with chemotherapy toxicity but not the rate of regimen completion. Conclusion: This review demonstrates that there are numerous measures that can estimate the ability of patients with oesophago-gastric cancer to tolerate palliative chemotherapy, and these should be incorporated into clinical assessments to promote personalised decision-making around treatment. Age should not be a barrier to receiving chemotherapy and older and frailer patients should be included in future clinical trials to better represent typical patients with oesophago-gastric cancers. Decisions regarding palliative treatment should be guided by these factors identified as well as patient preference.

Keywords: frailty, oesophago-gastric cancer, palliative chemotherapy, treatment resilience

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Authors: Haiu-Lan Chin, Yu-Fen Hsiao, Hua-Ying Chuang, Wei Lee

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An adult with intellectual disability generally has insufficient physical activity which is an important factor leading to premature weakness. Studies in recent years on frailty syndrome have accumulated substantial data about indicators of human aging, including unintentional weight loss, self-reported exhaustion, weakness, slow walking speed, and low physical activity. Of these indicators, hand-grip strength can be seen as a predictor of mortality, disability, complications, and increased length of hospital stay. Hand-grip strength in fact provides a comprehensive overview of one’s vitality. The research is about the investigation on hand-grip strength of adults with intellectual disabilities in facilities, institutions and workshops. The participants are 197 male adults (M=39.09±12.85 years old), and 114 female ones (M=35.80±8.2 years old) so far. The aim of the study is to figure out the performance of their hand-grip strength, and initiate the setting of training on hand-grip strength in their daily life which will decrease the weakening on their physical condition. Test items include weight, bone density, basal metabolic rate (BMR), static body balance except hand-grip strength. Hand-grip strength was measured by a hand dynamometer and classified as normal group ( ≧ 30 kg for male and ≧ 20 kg for female) and weak group ( < 30 kg for male, < 20 kg for female)The analysis includes descriptive statistics, and the indicators of grip strength fo the adults with intellectual disability. Though the research is still ongoing and the participants are increasing, the data indicates: (1) The correlation between hand-grip strength and degree of the intellectual disability (p ≦. 001), basal metabolic rate (p ≦ .001), and static body balance (p ≦ .01) as well. Nevertheless, there is no significant correlation between grip strength and basal metabolic rate which had been having significant correlation with hand-grip strength. (2) The difference between male and female subjects in hand-grip strength is significant, the hand-grip strength of male subjects (25.70±12.81 Kg) is much higher than female ones (16.30±8.89 Kg). Compared to the female counterparts, male participants indicate greater individual differences. And the proportion of weakness between male and female subjects is also different. (3) The regression indicates the main factors related to grip strength performance include degree of the intellectual disability, height, static body balance, training and weight sequentially. (4) There is significant difference on both hand-grip and static body balance between participants in facilities and workshops. The study supports the truth about the sex and gender differences in health. Nevertheless, the average hand-grip strength of left hand is higher than right hand in both male and female subjects. Moreover, 71.3% of male subjects and 64.2% of female subjects have better performance in their left hand-grip which is distinctive features especially in low degree of the intellectual disability.

Keywords: adult with intellectual disability, frailty syndrome, grip strength, physical condition

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Authors: Jerry Q. Cheng

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Currently, in analyzing large-scale recurrent event data, there are many challenges such as memory limitations, unscalable computing time, etc. In this research, a divide-and-conquer method is proposed using parametric frailty models. Specifically, the data is randomly divided into many subsets, and the maximum likelihood estimator from each individual data set is obtained. Then a weighted method is proposed to combine these individual estimators as the final estimator. It is shown that this divide-and-conquer estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the estimator based on the full data. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of this proposed method. This approach is applied to a large real dataset of repeated heart failure hospitalizations.

Keywords: big data analytics, divide-and-conquer, recurrent event data, statistical computing

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Julian Donovan, Jessica Brealey, Matthew Bowker, Marianne Feghali, Gregory Smith, Lee Thompson, Deborah Henderson

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This article details the development of the X-ray response team (XRT), a service that utilises innovative technology to safely deliver acute and elective imaging and medical assessment service in the pre-hospital and community setting. This involves a partnership between Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust’s Radiology and Emergency Medicine departments and the North East Ambulance Service to create a multidisciplinary prehospital team. The team committed to the delivery of a two-day acute service every week, alongside elective referrals, starting in November 2020. The service was originally made available to a 15-mile radius surrounding the Northumbria Hospital. Due to demand, this was expanded to include the North Tyneside and Northumberland regions. The target population was specified as frail and vulnerable patients, as well as those deemed to benefit from staying in their own environment. Within the first two months, thirty-six percent of patients assessed were able to stay at home due to the provision of off-site imaging. In the future, this service aims to allow patient transfer directly to an appropriate ward or clinic, bypassing the emergency department to improve the patient journey and reduce emergency care pressures.

Keywords: frailty, imaging, pre-hospital, X-ray

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Authors: Vahid Rashedi, Banafsheh Ebrahimi, Mahtab Sharif Mohseni, Mohammadali Hosseini

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Introduction: One of the metrics used to evaluate health status is life expectancy. This index alters as people age as a result of several events, illnesses, stress, and anxiety. One of the issues that might develop into a lethal phobia is death anxiety. This study looked at older persons in Tehran, Iran, to see if there was any correlation between life expectancy and fear of dying. Methods: Cluster random sampling was used to select 208 older persons (age 60) who had been sent to adult daycare facilities in Tehran for this correlational descriptive study. A demographic questionnaire, Temper's death anxiety scale, and Snyder's life expectancy scale were used to gather the data. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences softwear version 22 was used to conduct the data analysis. Results: The average age of the senior citizens was 66.60 (6.58) years. With a mean life expectancy of 24.94, it was discovered that the average death anxiety was 12.21. Additionally, Pearson's correlation coefficient demonstrated a bad correlation between fear of dying and life expectancy. Age, residential status, and death fear were the three primary predictors of a decline in life expectancy, according to multiple regression analysis. Conclusion: The findings suggest that there is a link between death fear and a lower life expectancy, which calls for the use of appropriate strategies to increase older individuals' life expectancies as well as the teaching of anxiety coping mechanisms.

Keywords: aged, frailty, death, anxiety, life

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Authors: Zahra Esmaeily, Zahra Tajari, Shahrzad Daei, Mahshid Rezaei, Atefeh Eyvazkhani, Marjan Mansouri Dara, Ahmad Reza Dorosty Motlagh, Andriko Palmowski

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Objective: Sarcopenia (SPA) is associated with frailty and disability in the elderly. Adherence to current dietary guidelines in addition to physical activity could play a role in the prevention of muscle wasting and weakness. The Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI) is a tool to assess diet quality as recommended in the U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans. This study aimed to investigate whether there is a relationship between HEI scores and the probability of SPA (PS) among the Tehran elderly. Method: A previously validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess HEI and the dietary intake of randomly selected elderly people living in Tehran, Iran. Handgrip strength (HGS) was measured to evaluate the PS. Statistical evaluation included descriptive analysis and standard test procedures. Result: 201 subjects were included. Those probably suffering from SPA (as determined by HGS) had significantly lower HEI scores (p = 0.02). After adjusting for confounders, HEI scores and HGS were still significantly associated (adjusted R2 = 0.56, slope β = 0.03, P = 0.09). Elderly people with a low probability of SPA consumed more monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids (P = 0.06) and ingested less added sugars and saturated fats (P = 0.01 and P = 0.02, respectively). Conclusion: In this cross-sectional study, HEI scores are associated with the probability of SPA. Adhering to current dietary guidelines might contribute to ameliorating muscle strength and mass in aging individuals.

Keywords: aging, HEI-2015, Iranian, sarcopenic

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Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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Although older drivers (defined as those of age 65 and above) are less involved with speeding, alcohol use as well as night driving, they are more vulnerable to severe crashes. The major contributing factors for severe crashes include frailty and medical complications. Several studies have evaluated the contributing factors on severity of crashes. However, few studies have established the impact of travel time reliability (TTR) on road safety. In particular, the impact of TTR on senior adults who face several challenges including hearing difficulties, decreasing of the processing skills and cognitive problems in driving is not well established. Therefore, this study focuses on determining possible impacts of TTR on the traffic safety with focus on elderly drivers. Historical travel speed data from freeway links in the study area were used to calculate travel time and the associated TTR metrics that is, planning time index, the buffer index, the standard deviation of the travel time and the probability of congestion. Four-year information on crashes occurring on these freeway links was acquired. The binary logit model estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was used to evaluate variables that could be influencing elderly crash severity. Preliminary results of the analysis suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. The result suggests that one unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by nearly 22%. These findings will enhance the understanding of TTR and its impact on the elderly crash severity.

Keywords: highway safety, travel time reliability, elderly drivers, traffic modeling

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