Search results for: fuzzy logic based analysis

Authors: F. Laaouad, M. Bouguerra, A. Hafaifa, A. Iratni

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In this work, we treat the problems related to chemical and petrochemical plants of a certain complex process taking the centrifugal compressor as an example, a system being very complex by its physical structure as well as its behaviour (surge phenomenon). We propose to study the application possibilities of the recent control approaches to the compressor behaviour, and consequently evaluate their contribution in the practical and theoretical fields. Facing the studied industrial process complexity, we choose to make recourse to fuzzy logic for analysis and treatment of its control problem owing to the fact that these techniques constitute the only framework in which the types of imperfect knowledge can jointly be treated (uncertainties, inaccuracies, etc..) offering suitable tools to characterise them. In the particular case of the centrifugal compressor, these imperfections are interpreted by modelling errors, the neglected dynamics, no modelisable dynamics and the parametric variations. The purpose of this paper is to produce a total robust nonlinear controller design method to stabilize the compression process at its optimum steady state by manipulating the gas rate flow. In order to cope with both the parameter uncertainty and the structured non linearity of the plant, the proposed method consists of a linear steady state regulation that ensures robust optimal control and of a nonlinear compensation that achieves the exact input/output linearization.

Keywords: Compressor, Fuzzy logic, Surge control, Bilinearcontroller, Stability analysis, Nonlinear plant.

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Authors: Hidehiko Okada

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Evolution strategy (ES) is a well-known instance of evolutionary algorithms, and there have been many studies on ES. In this paper, the author proposes an extended ES for solving fuzzy-valued optimization problems. In the proposed ES, genotype values are not real numbers but fuzzy numbers. Evolutionary processes in the ES are extended so that it can handle genotype instances with fuzzy numbers. In this study, the proposed method is experimentally applied to the evolution of neural networks with fuzzy weights and biases. Results reveal that fuzzy neural networks evolved using the proposed ES with fuzzy genotype values can model hidden target fuzzy functions even though no training data are explicitly provided. Next, the proposed method is evaluated in terms of variations in specifying fuzzy numbers as genotype values. One of the mostly adopted fuzzy numbers is a symmetric triangular one that can be specified by its lower and upper bounds (LU) or its center and width (CW). Experimental results revealed that the LU model contributed better to the fuzzy ES than the CW model, which indicates that the LU model should be adopted in future applications of the proposed method.

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, evolution strategy, fuzzy number, feedforward neural network, neuroevolution.

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Authors: K. Geetha, P. Thangaraj

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Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) is a collection of mobile devices forming a communication network without infrastructure. MANET is vulnerable to security threats due to network’s limited security, dynamic topology, scalability and the lack of central management. The Quality of Service (QoS) routing in such networks is limited by network breakage caused by node mobility or nodes energy depletions. The impact of node mobility on trust establishment is considered and its use to propagate trust through a network is investigated in this paper. This work proposes an enhanced Associativity Based Routing (ABR) with Fuzzy based Trust (Fuzzy- ABR) routing protocol for MANET to improve QoS and to mitigate network attacks.

Keywords: Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANET), Associativity Based Routing (ABR), Fuzzy based Computed Trust.

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Authors: Tamanna Siddiqui, M. Afshar Alam

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Censored Production Rule is an extension of standard production rule, which is concerned with problems of reasoning with incomplete information, subject to resource constraints and problem of reasoning efficiently with exceptions. A CPR has a form: IF A (Condition) THEN B (Action) UNLESS C (Censor), Where C is the exception condition. Fuzzy CPR are obtained by augmenting ordinary fuzzy production rule “If X is A then Y is B with an exception condition and are written in the form “If X is A then Y is B Unless Z is C. Such rules are employed in situation in which the fuzzy conditional statement “If X is A then Y is B" holds frequently and the exception condition “Z is C" holds rarely. Thus “If X is A then Y is B" part of the fuzzy CPR express important information while the unless part acts only as a switch that changes the polarity of “Y is B" to “Y is not B" when the assertion “Z is C" holds. The proposed approach is an attempt to discover fuzzy censored production rules from set of discovered fuzzy if then rules in the form: A(X) ÔçÆ B(Y) || C(Z).

Keywords: Uncertainty Quantification, Fuzzy if then rules, Fuzzy Censored Production Rules, Learning algorithm.

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Authors: Hazem. A. Khorshed, Mostafa A. El Gendy, Amer. Abd El-Razik

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In this paper, The T-G-action topology on a set acted on by a fuzzy T-neighborhood (T-neighborhood, for short) group is defined as a final T-neighborhood topology with respect to a set of maps. We mainly prove that this topology is a T-regular Tneighborhood topology.

Keywords: Fuzzy set, Fuzzy topology, Triangular norm, Separation axioms.

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Authors: Liping Yang, Curran Crawford, Jr. Ren, Zhengyi Ren

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Considering the cost evaluation and the stress analysis, a fuzzy satisfactory optimization (FSO) method has been developed for a hybrid composite flywheel. To evaluate the cost, the cost coefficients of the flywheel components are obtained through calculating the weighted sum of the scores of the material manufacturability, the structure character, and the material price. To express the satisfactory degree of the energy, the cost, and the mass, the satisfactory functions are proposed by using the decline function and introducing a satisfactory coefficient. To imply the different significance of the objectives, the object weight coefficients are defined. Based on the stress analysis of composite material, the circumferential and radial stresses are considered into the optimization formulation. The simulations of the FSO method with different weight coefficients and storage energy density optimization (SEDO) method of a flywheel are contrasted. The analysis results show that the FSO method can satisfy different requirements of the designer and the FSO method with suitable weight coefficients can replace the SEDO method.

Keywords: Flywheel energy storage, fuzzy, optimization, stress analysis.

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Authors: Shu-Xin Miao

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In this paper, the Gaussian type quadrature rules for fuzzy functions are discussed. The errors representation and convergence theorems are given. Moreover, four kinds of Gaussian type quadrature rules with error terms for approximate of fuzzy integrals are presented. The present paper complements the theoretical results of the paper by T. Allahviranloo and M. Otadi [T. Allahviranloo, M. Otadi, Gaussian quadratures for approximate of fuzzy integrals, Applied Mathematics and Computation 170 (2005) 874-885]. The obtained results are illustrated by solving some numerical examples.

Keywords: Guassian quadrature rules, fuzzy number, fuzzy integral, fuzzy solution.

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Authors: Yun Bai

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As a security mechanism, authorization is to provide access control to the system resources according to the polices and rules specified by the security strategies. Either by update or in the initial specification, conflicts in authorization is an issue needs to be solved. In this paper, we propose a new approach to solve conflict by using prioritized logic programs and discuss the uniqueness of its answer set. Addressing conflict resolution from logic programming viewpoint and the uniqueness analysis of the answer set provide a novel, efficient approach for authorization conflict resolution.

Keywords: authorization, formal specification, conflict resolution, prioritized logic program.

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Authors: Jian Tang

Abstract:

Let S be an ordered semigroup. In this paper we first introduce the concepts of (∈,∈ ∨q)-fuzzy ideals, (∈,∈ ∨q)-fuzzy bi-ideals and (∈,∈ ∨q)-fuzzy generalized bi-ideals of an ordered semigroup S, and investigate their related properties. Furthermore, we also define the upper and lower parts of fuzzy subsets of an ordered semigroup S, and investigate the properties of (∈,∈ ∨q)-fuzzy ideals of S. Finally, characterizations of regular ordered semigroups and intra-regular ordered semigroups by means of the lower part of (∈ ,∈ ∨q)-fuzzy left ideals, (∈,∈ ∨q)-fuzzy right ideals and (∈,∈ ∨q)- fuzzy (generalized) bi-ideals are given.

Keywords: Ordered semigroup, regular ordered semigroup, intraregular ordered semigroup, (∈, ∈ ∨q)-fuzzy left (right) ideal of an ordered semigroup, (∈, ∈ ∨q)-fuzzy (generalized) bi-ideal of an ordered semigroup.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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Neutrosophic logic decision analysis is proposed as a method of stealth fighter aircraft selection for Turkish Air Force. The opinion of experts is employed to rank the alternatives across a set of criteria. The analyst uses neutrosophic logic numbers to describe the experts' preferences. This approach can handle the situation in the case of unavailability of precise data, which is most commonly the case in stealth fighter aircraft selection. Neutrosophic logic numbers can consider the imprecision of the factors affecting decision making such as stealth analysis, survivability analysis, and performance analysis. Neutrosophic logic ranking is achieved using weighted arithmetic operator and weighted geometric operator and the alternatives are ranked from best to worst. An example is also presented to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. 

Keywords: Neutrosophic set theory, stealth fighter aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision-making, neutrosophic logic decision making, Turkish Air Force, MCDM

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Authors: Behnaz Zohouri, Mahdi Zowghiand, Mohsen haghighi

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In this paper, a method for decision making in fuzzy environment is presented.A new subjective and objective integrated approach is introduced that used to assign weight attributes in fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (FMADM) problems and alternatives and fmally ranked by proposed method.

Keywords: Multiple Attribute Decision Making, Triangular fuzzy numbers, ranking index, Fuzzy Entropy.

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Authors: A.Nagoor Gani, J.Malarvizhi

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In this paper, the order, size and degree of the nodes of the isomorphic fuzzy graphs are discussed. Isomorphism between fuzzy graphs is proved to be an equivalence relation. Some properties of self complementary and self weak complementary fuzzy graphs are discussed.

Keywords: complementary fuzzy graphs, co-weak isomorphism, equivalence relation, fuzzy relation, weak isomorphism.

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Authors: Yuanjie Zheng, Jie Yang, Yue Zhou

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In this paper, we propose an approach of unsupervised segmentation with fuzzy connectedness. Valid seeds are first specified by an unsupervised method based on scale space theory. A region is then extracted for each seed with a relative object extraction method of fuzzy connectedness. Afterwards, regions are merged according to the values between them of an introduced measure. Some theorems and propositions are also provided to show the reasonableness of the measure for doing mergence. Experiment results on a synthetic image, a color image and a large amount of MR images of our method are reported.

Keywords: Image segmentation, unsupervised imagesegmentation, fuzzy connectedness, scale space.

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Authors: M. Geetha Priya, K. Baskaran, S. Srinivasan

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Digital systems are said to be constructed using basic logic gates. These gates are the NOR, NAND, AND, OR, EXOR & EXNOR gates. This paper presents a robust three transistors (3T) based NAND and NOR gates with precise output logic levels, yet maintaining equivalent performance than the existing logic structures. This new set of 3T logic gates are based on CMOS inverter and Pass Transistor Logic (PTL). The new universal logic gates are characterized by better speed and lower power dissipation which can be straightforwardly fabricated as memory ICs for high performance computer networks. The simulation tests were performed using standard BPTM 22nm process technology using SYNOPSYS HSPICE. The 3T NAND gate is evaluated using C17 benchmark circuit and 3T NOR is gate evaluated using a D-Latch. According to HSPICE simulation in 22 nm CMOS BPTM process technology under given conditions and at room temperature, the proposed 3T gates shows an improvement of 88% less power consumption on an average over conventional CMOS logic gates. The devices designed with 3T gates will make longer battery life by ensuring extremely low power consumption.

Keywords: Low power, CMOS, pass-transistor, flash memory, logic gates.

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Authors: Nadia M. G. AL-Sa'idi, Muhammad Rushdan Md. Sd., Adil M. Ahmed

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The IFS is a scheme for describing and manipulating complex fractal attractors using simple mathematical models. More precisely, the most popular “fractal –based" algorithms for both representation and compression of computer images have involved some implementation of the method of Iterated Function Systems (IFS) on complete metric spaces. In this paper a new generalized space called Multi-Fuzzy Fractal Space was constructed. On these spases a distance function is defined, and its completeness is proved. The completeness property of this space ensures the existence of a fixed-point theorem for the family of continuous mappings. This theorem is the fundamental result on which the IFS methods are based and the fractals are built. The defined mappings are proved to satisfy some generalizations of the contraction condition.

Keywords: Fuzzy metric space, Fuzzy fractal space, Multi fuzzy fractal space.

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Authors: Amal Elmzabi, Mostafa Bellafkih, Mohammed Ramdani

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The Chiu-s method which generates a Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) is a method of fuzzy rules extraction. The rules output is a linear function of inputs. In addition, these rules are not explicit for the expert. In this paper, we develop a method which generates Mamdani FIS, where the rules output is fuzzy. The method proceeds in two steps: first, it uses the subtractive clustering principle to estimate both the number of clusters and the initial locations of a cluster centers. Each obtained cluster corresponds to a Mamdani fuzzy rule. Then, it optimizes the fuzzy model parameters by applying a genetic algorithm. This method is illustrated on a traffic network management application. We suggest also a Mamdani fuzzy rules generation method, where the expert wants to classify the output variables in some fuzzy predefined classes.

Keywords: Fuzzy entropy, fuzzy inference systems, genetic algorithms, network management, subtractive clustering.

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Authors: Kaveh Mollazade, Hojat Ahmadi, Mahmoud Omid, Reza Alimardani

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Recently, the issue of machine condition monitoring and fault diagnosis as a part of maintenance system became global due to the potential advantages to be gained from reduced maintenance costs, improved productivity and increased machine availability. The aim of this work is to investigate the effectiveness of a new fault diagnosis method based on power spectral density (PSD) of vibration signals in combination with decision trees and fuzzy inference system (FIS). To this end, a series of studies was conducted on an external gear hydraulic pump. After a test under normal condition, a number of different machine defect conditions were introduced for three working levels of pump speed (1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm), corresponding to (i) Journal-bearing with inner face wear (BIFW), (ii) Gear with tooth face wear (GTFW), and (iii) Journal-bearing with inner face wear plus Gear with tooth face wear (B&GW). The features of PSD values of vibration signal were extracted using descriptive statistical parameters. J48 algorithm is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The output of J48 algorithm was employed to produce the crisp if-then rule and membership function sets. The structure of FIS classifier was then defined based on the crisp sets. In order to evaluate the proposed PSD-J48-FIS model, the data sets obtained from vibration signals of the pump were used. Results showed that the total classification accuracy for 1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm conditions were 96.42%, 100%, and 96.42% respectively. The results indicate that the combined PSD-J48-FIS model has the potential for fault diagnosis of hydraulic pumps.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density, Machine ConditionMonitoring, Hydraulic Pump, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Qianhong Zhang, Lihui Yang, Daixi Liao

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In this paper, by employing a new Lyapunov functional and an elementary inequality analysis technique, some sufficient conditions are derived to ensure the existence and uniqueness of periodic oscillatory solution for fuzzy bi-directional memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays, and all other solutions of the fuzzy BAM neural networks converge the uniqueness periodic solution. These criteria are presented in terms of system parameters and have important leading significance in the design and applications of neural networks. Moreover an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and feasible of results obtained.

Keywords: Fuzzy BAM neural networks, Periodic solution, Global exponential stability, Time-varying delays

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Authors: Rahmad Wisnu Wardana, Eakachai Warinsiriruk, Sutep Joy-A-Ka

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Selecting the most suitable welding process usually depends on experiences or common application in similar companies. However, this approach generally ignores many criteria that can be affecting the suitable welding process selection. Therefore, knowledge automation through knowledge-based systems will significantly improve the decision-making process. The aims of this research propose integrated data envelopment analysis (DEA) and fuzzy credibility constrained programming approach for identifying the best welding process for stainless steel storage tank in the food and beverage industry. The proposed approach uses fuzzy concept and credibility measure to deal with uncertain data from experts' judgment. Furthermore, 12 parameters are used to determine the most appropriate welding processes among six competitive welding processes.

Keywords: Welding process selection, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy credibility constrained programming, storage tank.

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Authors: Prasan Pitiranggon, Nunthika Benjathepanun, Somsri Banditvilai, Veera Boonjing

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Our study proposes an alternative method in building Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRB) from Support Vector Machine (SVM). The first set of fuzzy IF-THEN rules is obtained through an equivalence of the SVM decision network and the zero-ordered Sugeno FRB type of the Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The second set of rules is generated by combining the first set based on strength of firing signals of support vectors using Gaussian kernel. The final set of rules is then obtained from the second set through input scatter partitioning. A distinctive advantage of our method is the guarantee that the number of final fuzzy IFTHEN rules is not more than the number of support vectors in the trained SVM. The final FRB system obtained is capable of performing classification with results comparable to its SVM counterpart, but it has an advantage over the black-boxed SVM in that it may reveal human comprehensible patterns.

Keywords: Fuzzy Rule Base, Rule Extraction, Rule Generation, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: N. Kaewpraek, W. Assawinchaichote

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This paper considers an H_∞ TS fuzzy state-derivative feedback controller for a class of nonlinear dynamical systems. A Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model is used to approximate a class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Then, based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we design an H_∞ TS fuzzy state-derivative feedback control law which guarantees L₂-gain of the mapping from the exogenous input noise to the regulated output to be less or equal to a prescribed value. We derive a sufficient condition such that the system with the fuzzy controller is asymptotically stable and H_∞ performance is satisfied. Finally, we provide and simulate a numerical example is provided to illustrate the stability and the effectiveness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: H∞ fuzzy control, LMI, Takagi-Sugano (TS) fuzzy model, nonlinear dynamic systems, state-derivative feedback.

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Authors: Nurnadiah Z., Lazim A.

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The design of weight is one of the important parts in fuzzy decision making, as it would have a deep effect on the evaluation results. Entropy is one of the weight measure based on objective evaluation. Non--probabilistic-type entropy measures for fuzzy set and interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FS) have been developed and applied to weight measure. Since the entropy for (IT2FS) for decision making yet to be explored, this paper proposes a new objective weight method by using entropy weight method for multiple attribute decision making (MADM). This paper utilizes the nature of IT2FS concept in the evaluation process to assess the attribute weight based on the credibility of data. An example was presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the new method in decision making. The entropy measure of interval type-2 fuzzy sets yield flexible judgment and could be applied in decision making environment.

Keywords: Objective weight, entropy weight, multiple attributedecision making, type-2 fuzzy sets, interval type-2 fuzzy sets

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Authors: N. Pekin Alakoç, A. Apaydın

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Quality control charts indicate out of control conditions if any nonrandom pattern of the points is observed or any point is plotted beyond the control limits. Nonrandom patterns of Shewhart control charts are tested with sensitizing rules. When the processes are defined with fuzzy set theory, traditional sensitizing rules are insufficient for defining all out of control conditions. This is due to the fact that fuzzy numbers increase the number of out of control conditions. The purpose of the study is to develop a set of fuzzy sensitizing rules, which increase the flexibility and sensitivity of fuzzy control charts. Fuzzy sensitizing rules simplify the identification of out of control situations that results in a decrease in the calculation time and number of evaluations in fuzzy control chart approach.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, Quality control charts, Run Rules, Unnatural patterns.

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Authors: Mert Bal, Hayri Sever, Oya Kalıpsız

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Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSSs) are sophisticated, intelligent systems that can provide inference due to lack of information and uncertainty. In such systems, to model the uncertainty various soft computing methods such as Bayesian networks, rough sets, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, inductive logic programming and genetic algorithms and hybrid methods that formed from the combination of the few mentioned methods are used. In this study, symptom-disease relationships are presented by a framework which is modeled with a formal concept analysis and theory, as diseases, objects and attributes of symptoms. After a concept lattice is formed, Bayes theorem can be used to determine the relationships between attributes and objects. A discernibility relation that forms the base of the rough sets can be applied to attribute data sets in order to reduce attributes and decrease the complexity of computation.

Keywords: Formal Concept Analysis, Rough Set Theory, Granular Computing, Medical Decision Support System.

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Authors: Jafreezal Jaafar, Eric McKenzie

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This paper presents a solution for the behavioural animation of autonomous virtual agent navigation in virtual environments. We focus on using Dempster-Shafer-s Theory of Evidence in developing visual sensor for virtual agent. The role of the visual sensor is to capture the information about the virtual environment or identifie which part of an obstacle can be seen from the position of the virtual agent. This information is require for vitual agent to coordinate navigation in virtual environment. The virual agent uses fuzzy controller as a navigation system and Fuzzy α - level for the action selection method. The result clearly demonstrates the path produced is reasonably smooth even though there is some sharp turn and also still not diverted too far from the potential shortest path. This had indicated the benefit of our method, where more reliable and accurate paths produced during navigation task.

Keywords: Agent, Navigation, Demster Shafer, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: S.K.Sardar, B.Davvaz, S.Kayal, S.K.Majumdar

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The purpose of this note is to obtain some properties of (∈,∈ ∨q)- fuzzy bi-ideals in a Γ-semigroup in order to characterize regular and intra-regular Γ-semigroups.

Keywords: Regular Γ-semigroup, belong to or quasi-coincident, (∈, ∈ ∨q)-fuzzy subsemigroup, (∈, ∈ ∨q)-fuzzy bi-ideals.

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Authors: Asser S. Abdelwahab, Nabil H. Abbasy, Ragi A. Hamdy

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Marine shipping has now become one of the major worldwide contributors to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Hybrid ships technology based on multiple energy sources has taken a great scope of research to get rid of ship emissions and cut down fuel expenses. Insufficiency between power generated and the demand load to withstand the transient behavior on ships during severe climate conditions will lead to a blackout. Thus, an efficient energy management system (EMS) is a mandatory scope for achieving higher system efficiency while enhancing the lifetime of the onboard storage systems is another salient EMS scope. Considering energy storage system conditions, both the battery state of charge (SOC) and temperature represent important parameters to prevent any malfunction of the storage system that eventually degrades the whole system. In this paper, a two battery packs ratio fuzzy logic control model is proposed. The overall aim is to control the charging/discharging current while including both the battery SOC and temperature in the energy management system. The full designs of the proposed controllers are described and simulated using Matlab. The results prove the successfulness of the proposed controller in stabilizing the system voltage during both loading and unloading while keeping the energy storage system in a healthy condition.

Keywords: energy storage system, fuzzy logic control, hybrid ship, thermal runaway

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Authors: Caigen Zhou, Haibo Jiang

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The problem of robust fuzzy control for a class of nonlinear fuzzy impulsive singular perturbed systems with time-varying delay is investigated by employing Lyapunov functions. The nonlinear delay system is built based on the well-known T–S fuzzy model. The so-called parallel distributed compensation idea is employed to design the state feedback controller. Sufficient conditions for global exponential stability of the closed-loop system are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be easily solved by LMI technique. Some simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: T–S fuzzy model, singular perturbed systems, time-varying delay, robust control.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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