Search results for: first passage probability theory
2146 A Computer Model of Quantum Field Theory
Authors: Hans H. Diel
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This paper describes a computer model of Quantum Field Theory (QFT), referred to in this paper as QTModel. After specifying the initial configuration for a QFT process (e.g. scattering) the model generates the possible applicable processes in terms of Feynman diagrams, the equations for the scattering matrix, and evaluates probability amplitudes for the scattering matrix and cross sections. The computations of probability amplitudes are performed numerically. The equations generated by QTModel are provided for demonstration purposes only. They are not directly used as the base for the computations of probability amplitudes. The computer model supports two modes for the computation of the probability amplitudes: (1) computation according to standard QFT, and (2) computation according to a proposed functional interpretation of quantum theory.
Keywords: Computational Modeling, Simulation of Quantum Theory, Quantum Field Theory, Quantum Electrodynamics
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18152145 Advanced Numerical and Analytical Methods for Assessing Concrete Sewers and Their Remaining Service Life
Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi
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Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.Keywords: Reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12642144 Estimation of Broadcast Probability in Wireless Adhoc Networks
Authors: Bharadwaj Kadiyala, Sunitha V
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Most routing protocols (DSR, AODV etc.) that have been designed for wireless adhoc networks incorporate the broadcasting operation in their route discovery scheme. Probabilistic broadcasting techniques have been developed to optimize the broadcast operation which is otherwise very expensive in terms of the redundancy and the traffic it generates. In this paper we have explored percolation theory to gain a different perspective on probabilistic broadcasting schemes which have been actively researched in the recent years. This theory has helped us estimate the value of broadcast probability in a wireless adhoc network as a function of the size of the network. We also show that, operating at those optimal values of broadcast probability there is at least 25-30% reduction in packet regeneration during successful broadcasting.Keywords: Crossover length, Percolation, Probabilistic broadcast, Wireless adhoc networks
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15912143 Investigation and Calculation of Seismic Reliability of Structures
Authors: Panam. Zarfam, Mohsen. Javan Pour
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Recently, analysis and designing of the structures based on the Reliability theory have been the center of attention. Reason of this attention is the existence of the natural and random structural parameters such as the material specification, external loads, geometric dimensions etc. By means of the Reliability theory, uncertainties resulted from the statistical nature of the structural parameters can be changed into the mathematical equations and the safety and operational considerations can be considered in the designing process. According to this theory, it is possible to study the destruction probability of not only a specific element but also the entire system. Therefore, after being assured of safety of every element, their reciprocal effects on the safety of the entire system can be investigated.Keywords: Probability, Reliability, Statistics, Uncertainty
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15972142 Probability of Globality
Authors: Eva Eggeling, Dieter W. Fellner, Torsten Ullrich
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The objective of global optimization is to find the globally best solution of a model. Nonlinear models are ubiquitous in many applications and their solution often requires a global search approach; i.e. for a function f from a set A ⊂ Rn to the real numbers, an element x0 ∈ A is sought-after, such that ∀ x ∈ A : f(x0) ≤ f(x). Depending on the field of application, the question whether a found solution x0 is not only a local minimum but a global one is very important. This article presents a probabilistic approach to determine the probability of a solution being a global minimum. The approach is independent of the used global search method and only requires a limited, convex parameter domain A as well as a Lipschitz continuous function f whose Lipschitz constant is not needed to be known.Keywords: global optimization, probability theory, probability of globality
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15822141 Probabilities and the Persistence of Memory in a Bingo-like Carnival Game
Authors: M. Glomski, M. Lopes
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Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.
Keywords: Conditional probability, games of chance, npersongames, probability theory.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15262140 Computational Investigation of Secondary Flow Losses in Linear Turbine Cascade by Modified Leading Edge Fence
Authors: K. N. Kiran, S. Anish
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It is well known that secondary flow loses account about one third of the total loss in any axial turbine. Modern gas turbine height is smaller and have longer chord length, which might lead to increase in secondary flow. In order to improve the efficiency of the turbine, it is important to understand the behavior of secondary flow and device mechanisms to curtail these losses. The objective of the present work is to understand the effect of a stream wise end-wall fence on the aerodynamics of a linear turbine cascade. The study is carried out computationally by using commercial software ANSYS CFX. The effect of end-wall on the flow field are calculated based on RANS simulation by using SST transition turbulence model. Durham cascade which is similar to high-pressure axial flow turbine for simulation is used. The aim of fencing in blade passage is to get the maximum benefit from flow deviation and destroying the passage vortex in terms of loss reduction. It is observed that, for the present analysis, fence in the blade passage helps reducing the strength of horseshoe vortex and is capable of restraining the flow along the blade passage. Fence in the blade passage helps in reducing the under turning by 70 in comparison with base case. Fence on end-wall is effective in preventing the movement of pressure side leg of horseshoe vortex and helps in breaking the passage vortex. Computations are carried for different fence height whose curvature is different from the blade camber. The optimum fence geometry and location reduces the loss coefficient by 15.6% in comparison with base case.
Keywords: Boundary layer fence, horseshoe vortex, linear cascade, passage vortex, secondary flow.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20372139 An Extension of the Kratzel Function and Associated Inverse Gaussian Probability Distribution Occurring in Reliability Theory
Authors: R. K. Saxena, Ravi Saxena
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In view of their importance and usefulness in reliability theory and probability distributions, several generalizations of the inverse Gaussian distribution and the Krtzel function are investigated in recent years. This has motivated the authors to introduce and study a new generalization of the inverse Gaussian distribution and the Krtzel function associated with a product of a Bessel function of the third kind )(zKQ and a Z - Fox-Wright generalized hyper geometric function introduced in this paper. The introduced function turns out to be a unified gamma-type function. Its incomplete forms are also discussed. Several properties of this gamma-type function are obtained. By means of this generalized function, we introduce a generalization of inverse Gaussian distribution, which is useful in reliability analysis, diffusion processes, and radio techniques etc. The inverse Gaussian distribution thus introduced also provides a generalization of the Krtzel function. Some basic statistical functions associated with this probability density function, such as moments, the Mellin transform, the moment generating function, the hazard rate function, and the mean residue life function are also obtained.KeywordsFox-Wright function, Inverse Gaussian distribution, Krtzel function & Bessel function of the third kind.
Keywords: Fox-Wright function, Inverse Gaussian distribution, Krtzel function & Bessel function of the third kind.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17202138 The Possibility-Probability Relationship for Bloodstream Concentrations of Physiologically Active Substances
Authors: Arkady Bolotin
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If a possibility distribution and a probability distribution are describing values x of one and the same system or process x(t), can they relate to each other? Though in general the possibility and probability distributions might be not connected at all, we can assume that in some particular cases there is an association linked them. In the presented paper, we consider distributions of bloodstream concentrations of physiologically active substances and propose that the probability to observe a concentration x of a substance X can be produced from the possibility of the event X = x . The proposed assumptions and resulted theoretical distributions are tested against the data obtained from various panel studies of the bloodstream concentrations of the different physiologically active substances in patients and healthy adults as well.Keywords: Possibility distributions, possibility-probability relationship.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11892137 Application Reliability Method for Concrete Dams
Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar
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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.
Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12252136 Percolation Transition with Hidden Variables in Complex Networks
Authors: Zhanli Zhang, Wei Chen, Xin Jiang, Lili Ma, Shaoting Tang, Zhiming Zheng
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A new class of percolation model in complex networks, in which nodes are characterized by hidden variables reflecting the properties of nodes and the occupied probability of each link is determined by the hidden variables of the end nodes, is studied in this paper. By the mean field theory, the analytical expressions for the phase of percolation transition is deduced. It is determined by the distribution of the hidden variables for the nodes and the occupied probability between pairs of them. Moreover, the analytical expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations on a particular model. Besides, the general model can be applied to describe and control practical diffusion models, such as disease diffusion model, scientists cooperation networks, and so on.Keywords: complex networks, percolation transition, hidden variable, occupied probability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16072135 An Overview of Handoff Techniques in Cellular Networks
Authors: Nasıf Ekiz, Tara Salih, Sibel Küçüköner, Kemal Fidanboylu
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Continuation of an active call is one of the most important quality measurements in the cellular systems. Handoff process enables a cellular system to provide such a facility by transferring an active call from one cell to another. Different approaches are proposed and applied in order to achieve better handoff service. The principal parameters used to evaluate handoff techniques are: forced termination probability and call blocking probability. The mechanisms such as guard channels and queuing handoff calls decrease the forced termination probability while increasing the call blocking probability. In this paper we present an overview about the issues related to handoff initiation and decision and discuss about different types of handoff techniques available in the literature.
Keywords: Handoff, Forced Termination Probability, Blocking probability, Handoff Initiation, Handoff Decision, Handoff Prioritization Schemes.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 66142134 Computation of Probability Coefficients using Binary Decision Diagram and their Application in Test Vector Generation
Authors: Ashutosh Kumar Singh, Anand Mohan
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This paper deals with efficient computation of probability coefficients which offers computational simplicity as compared to spectral coefficients. It eliminates the need of inner product evaluations in determination of signature of a combinational circuit realizing given Boolean function. The method for computation of probability coefficients using transform matrix, fast transform method and using BDD is given. Theoretical relations for achievable computational advantage in terms of required additions in computing all 2n probability coefficients of n variable function have been developed. It is shown that for n ≥ 5, only 50% additions are needed to compute all probability coefficients as compared to spectral coefficients. The fault detection techniques based on spectral signature can be used with probability signature also to offer computational advantage.Keywords: Binary Decision Diagrams, Spectral Coefficients, Fault detection
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14642133 Some Investigations on Higher Mathematics Scores for Chinese University Student
Authors: Xun Ge, Jingju Qian
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To investigate some relations between higher mathe¬matics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination and calculus (resp. linear algebra, probability statistics) scores in subject's completion examination of Chinese university, we select 20 students as a sample, take higher mathematics score as a decision attribute and take calculus score, linear algebra score, probability statistics score as condition attributes. In this paper, we are based on rough-set theory (Rough-set theory is a logic-mathematical method proposed by Z. Pawlak. In recent years, this theory has been widely implemented in the many fields of natural science and societal science.) to investigate importance of condition attributes with respective to decision attribute and strength of condition attributes supporting decision attribute. Results of this investigation will be helpful for university students to raise higher mathematics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination.
Keywords: Rough set, higher mathematics scores, decision attribute, condition attribute.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10842132 Determination of Sensitive Transmission Lines Due to the Effect of Protection System Hidden Failure in a Critical System Cascading Collapse
Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan
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Protection system hidden failures have been identified as one of the main causes of system cascading collapse resulting to power system instability. In this paper, a systematic approach is presented in order to identify the probability of a system cascading collapse by taking into consideration the effect of protection system hidden failure. This includes the accurate calculation of the probability of hidden failure as it will provide significant impinge on the findings of the probability of system cascading collapse. The probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to identify the initial tripping of sensitive transmission lines which will contribute to a critical system cascading collapse. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is important to decide on the accurate value of the hidden failure probability as it will affect the probability of a system cascading collapse.
Keywords: Critical system cascading collapse, hidden failure, probability of cascading collapse, sensitive transmission lines.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17852131 An Approaching Index to Evaluate a forward Collision Probability
Authors: Yuan-Lin Chen
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This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.
Keywords: Approaching index, forward collision probability, time to collision, time headway.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11602130 Ruin Probability for a Markovian Risk Model with Two-type Claims
Authors: Dongdong Zhang, Deran Zhang
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In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.
Keywords: Risk model, ruin probability, Markov jump process, integral equation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13662129 Application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm in Function Optimization
Authors: Panpan Xu, Shulin Sui
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The crossover probability and mutation probability are the two important factors in genetic algorithm. The adaptive genetic algorithm can improve the convergence performance of genetic algorithm, in which the crossover probability and mutation probability are adaptively designed with the changes of fitness value. We apply adaptive genetic algorithm into a function optimization problem. The numerical experiment represents that adaptive genetic algorithm improves the convergence speed and avoids local convergence.
Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Adaptive genetic algorithm, Function optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17232128 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran
Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi
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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.
Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7532127 A Case Study on the Numerical-Probability Approach for Deep Excavation Analysis
Authors: Komeil Valipourian
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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.
Keywords: Numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method, FDM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6922126 Approximation for Average Error Probability of BPSK in the Presence of Phase Error
Authors: Yeonsoo Jang, Dongweon Yoon, Ki Ho Kwon, Jaeyoon Lee, Wooju Lee
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Phase error in communications systems degrades error performance. In this paper, we present a simple approximation for the average error probability of the binary phase shift keying (BPSK) in the presence of phase error having a uniform distribution on arbitrary intervals. For the simple approximation, we use symmetry and periodicity of a sinusoidal function. Approximate result for the average error probability is derived, and the performance is verified through comparison with simulation result.Keywords: Average error probability, Phase shift keying, Phase error
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20492125 The Giant Component in a Random Subgraph of a Weak Expander
Authors: Yilun Shang
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In this paper, we investigate the appearance of the giant component in random subgraphs G(p) of a given large finite graph family Gn = (Vn, En) in which each edge is present independently with probability p. We show that if the graph Gn satisfies a weak isoperimetric inequality and has bounded degree, then the probability p under which G(p) has a giant component of linear order with some constant probability is bounded away from zero and one. In addition, we prove the probability of abnormally large order of the giant component decays exponentially. When a contact graph is modeled as Gn, our result is of special interest in the study of the spread of infectious diseases or the identification of community in various social networks.
Keywords: subgraph, expander, random graph, giant component, percolation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16962124 Bridging the Mental Gap between Convolution Approach and Compartmental Modeling in Functional Imaging: Typical Embedding of an Open Two-Compartment Model into the Systems Theory Approach of Indicator Dilution Theory
Authors: Gesine Hellwig
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Functional imaging procedures for the non-invasive assessment of tissue microcirculation are highly requested, but require a mathematical approach describing the trans- and intercapillary passage of tracer particles. Up to now, two theoretical, for the moment different concepts have been established for tracer kinetic modeling of contrast agent transport in tissues: pharmacokinetic compartment models, which are usually written as coupled differential equations, and the indicator dilution theory, which can be generalized in accordance with the theory of lineartime- invariant (LTI) systems by using a convolution approach. Based on mathematical considerations, it can be shown that also in the case of an open two-compartment model well-known from functional imaging, the concentration-time course in tissue is given by a convolution, which allows a separation of the arterial input function from a system function being the impulse response function, summarizing the available information on tissue microcirculation. Due to this reason, it is possible to integrate the open two-compartment model into the system-theoretic concept of indicator dilution theory (IDT) and thus results known from IDT remain valid for the compartment approach. According to the long number of applications of compartmental analysis, even for a more general context similar solutions of the so-called forward problem can already be found in the extensively available appropriate literature of the seventies and early eighties. Nevertheless, to this day, within the field of biomedical imaging – not from the mathematical point of view – there seems to be a trench between both approaches, which the author would like to get over by exemplary analysis of the well-known model.
Keywords: Functional imaging, Tracer kinetic modeling, LTIsystem, Indicator dilution theory / convolution approach, Two-Compartment model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14172123 The Locker Problem with Empty Lockers
Authors: David Avis, Luc Devroye, Kazuo Iwama
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We consider a cooperative game played by n players against a referee. The players names are randomly distributed among n lockers, with one name per locker. Each player can open up to half the lockers and each player must find his name. Once the game starts the players may not communicate. It has been previously shown that, quite surprisingly, an optimal strategy exists for which the success probability is never worse than 1 − ln 2 ≈ 0.306. In this paper we consider an extension where the number of lockers is greater than the number of players, so that some lockers are empty. We show that the players may still win with positive probability even if there are a constant k number of empty lockers. We show that for each fixed probability p, there is a constant c so that the players can win with probability at least p if they are allowed to open cn lockers.
Keywords: Locker problem, pointer-following algorithms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12922122 An Evolutionary Statistical Learning Theory
Authors: Sung-Hae Jun, Kyung-Whan Oh
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Statistical learning theory was developed by Vapnik. It is a learning theory based on Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension. It also has been used in learning models as good analytical tools. In general, a learning theory has had several problems. Some of them are local optima and over-fitting problems. As well, statistical learning theory has same problems because the kernel type, kernel parameters, and regularization constant C are determined subjectively by the art of researchers. So, we propose an evolutionary statistical learning theory to settle the problems of original statistical learning theory. Combining evolutionary computing into statistical learning theory, our theory is constructed. We verify improved performances of an evolutionary statistical learning theory using data sets from KDD cup.Keywords: Evolutionary computing, Local optima, Over-fitting, Statistical learning theory
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17762121 Simple Procedure for Probability Calculation of Tensile Crack Occurring in Rigid Pavement – Case Study
Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Jaroslav Žák
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Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.
Keywords: Failure, pavement, probability, reliability index, simulation, tensile crack.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23052120 The Research and Application of M/M/1/N Queuing Model with Variable Input Rates, Variable Service Rates and Impatient Customers
Authors: Quanru Pan
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How to maintain the service speeds for the business to make the biggest profit is a problem worthy of study, which is discussed in this paper with the use of queuing theory. An M/M/1/N queuing model with variable input rates, variable service rates and impatient customers is established, and the following conclusions are drawn: the stationary distribution of the model, the relationship between the stationary distribution and the probability that there are n customers left in the system when a customer leaves (not including the customer who leaves himself), the busy period of the system, the average operating cycle, the loss probability for the customers not entering the system while they arriving at the system, the mean of the customers who leaves the system being for impatient, the loss probability for the customers not joining the queue due to the limited capacity of the system and many other indicators. This paper also indicates that the following conclusion is not correct: the more customers the business serve, the more profit they will get. At last, this paper points out the appropriate service speeds the business should keep to make the biggest profit.Keywords: variable input rates, impatient customer, variable servicerates, profit maximization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19632119 Detection of Bias in GPS satellites- Measurements for Enhanced Measurement Integrity
Authors: Mamoun F. Abdel-Hafez
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In this paper, the detection of a fault in the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement is addressed. The class of faults considered is a bias in the GPS pseudorange measurements. This bias is modeled as an unknown constant. The fault could be the result of a receiver fault or signal fault such as multipath error. A bias bank is constructed based on set of possible fault hypotheses. Initially, there is equal probability of occurrence for any of the biases in the bank. Subsequently, as the measurements are processed, the probability of occurrence for each of the biases is sequentially updated. The fault with a probability approaching unity will be declared as the current fault in the GPS measurement. The residual formed from the GPS and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) measurements is used to update the probability of each fault. Results will be presented to show the performance of the presented algorithm.
Keywords: Estimation and filtering, Statistical data analysis, Faultdetection and identification.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19652118 One scheme of Transition Probability Evaluation
Authors: Alexander B. Bichkov, Alla A. Mityureva, Valery V. Smirnov
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In present work are considered the scheme of evaluation the transition probability in quantum system. It is based on path integral representation of transition probability amplitude and its evaluation by means of a saddle point method, applied to the part of integration variables. The whole integration process is reduced to initial value problem solutions of Hamilton equations with a random initial phase point. The scheme is related to the semiclassical initial value representation approaches using great number of trajectories. In contrast to them from total set of generated phase paths only one path for each initial coordinate value is selected in Monte Karlo process.Keywords: Path integral, saddle point method, semiclassical approximation, transition probability
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16052117 System Overflow/Blocking Transients For Queues with Batch Arrivals Using a Family of Polynomials Resembling Chebyshev Polynomials
Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil
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The paper shows that in the analysis of a queuing system with fixed-size batch arrivals, there emerges a set of polynomials which are a generalization of Chebyshev polynomials of the second kind. The paper uses these polynomials in assessing the transient behaviour of the overflow (equivalently call blocking) probability in the system. A key figure to note is the proportion of the overflow (or blocking) probability resident in the transient component, which is shown in the results to be more significant at the beginning of the transient and naturally decays to zero in the limit of large t. The results also show that the significance of transients is more pronounced in cases of lighter loads, but lasts longer for heavier loads.
Keywords: batch arrivals, blocking probability, generalizedChebyshev polynomials, overflow probability, queue transientanalysis
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